Articles | Volume 18, issue 2
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 499–514, 2018

Special issue: Linking faults to seismic hazard assessment in Europe

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 499–514, 2018

Research article 15 Feb 2018

Research article | 15 Feb 2018

The effect of alternative seismotectonic models on PSHA results – a sensitivity study for two sites in Israel

Matan Avital et al.

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Cited articles

Abrahamson, N. A. and Bommer, J. J.: Probability and Uncertainty in Seismic Hazard Analysis, Earthq. Spectra, 21, 603–607,, 2005.
Abrahamson, N., Somerville, P., and Cornell, C. A.: Uncertainty in numerical strong motion predictions, Palm Springs, CA, May 20–24 1990, 407–416, 1990.
Abrahamson, N. A., Coppersmith, K. J., Koller, M., Roth, P., Sprecher, C., Toro, G. R., and Youngs, R.: Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Swiss Nuclear Power Plant Sites (PEGASOS Project), 2004.
Abrahamson, N. A., Silva, W. J., and Kamai, R.: Summary of the ASK14 Ground Motion Relation for Active Crustal Regions, Earthq. Spectra, 30, 1025–1055,, 2014.
Akkar, S., Sandıkkaya, M. A., and Bommer, J. J.: Empirical ground-motion models for point- and extended-source crustal earthquake scenarios in Europe and the Middle East, B. Earthq. Eng., 12, 359–387,, 2014.
Short summary
We perform a hazard sensitivity study for two sites in Israel, exploring effects of uncertainty on the calculated seismic hazard. We account for uncertainty in the earthquake source properties, such as their geometric representation and seismic activity. We also account for uncertainty in the wave propagation path, by using alternative models to describe the ground motion calculations. We conclude that the current practice in Israel should be updated as it is probably underestimating the hazard.
Final-revised paper