Articles | Volume 18, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
03 Jan 2018
Research article |
| 03 Jan 2018
Exploiting LSPIV to assess debris-flow velocities in the field
Joshua I. Theule
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Faculty of Science and Technology, Free University of Bozen-Bolzano,
Bozen-Bolzano, 39100, Italy
TerrAlp Consulting, 100 chemin du grand pré, 38410 St Martin
d'Uriage, France
Stefano Crema
Research Institute for Geo-hydrological Protection, National Research
Council of Italy, Padova, 35127, Italy
Lorenzo Marchi
Research Institute for Geo-hydrological Protection, National Research
Council of Italy, Padova, 35127, Italy
Marco Cavalli
Research Institute for Geo-hydrological Protection, National Research
Council of Italy, Padova, 35127, Italy
Francesco Comiti
Faculty of Science and Technology, Free University of Bozen-Bolzano,
Bozen-Bolzano, 39100, Italy
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Earth Surf. Dynam., 4, 489–513, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-489-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-489-2016, 2016
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The sediment supply and storage changes from major channels of the Manival catchment (French Alps) were surveyed periodically for 16 months to study the coupling between sediment dynamics and torrent responses in terms of debris flow events. The spatial and seasonal variability of sediment delivery is displayed and analysed. This study shows that monitoring the changes within a torrent’s in-channel storage and its debris supply can improve knowledge on recharge thresholds leading to debris flow.
M. Arattano, V. Coviello, M. Cavalli, F. Comiti, P. Macconi, J. Theule, and S. Crema
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A testing field for debris flow Early Warning Systems (EWSs) has been equipped in the Gadria basin (eastern Italian Alps). The installation is conceived to produce didactic videos and host informative visits. The populace involvement and education is an essential step in hazard mitigation interventions and it should be planned during any research activity on that topic. In the summer of 2014, the occurrence of a debris flow in the Gadria creek allowed for a first test of a geophone-based EWS.
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Mountain river confluences are hazardous during localized flooding events. A physical model was used to determine the dominant controls over mountain confluences. Contrary to lowland confluences, in mountain regions, the channel discharges and (to a lesser degree) the tributary sediment concentration control morphological patterns. Applying conclusions drawn from lowland confluences could misrepresent depositional and erosional patterns and the related flood hazard at mountain river confluences.
Giulia Zuecco, Anam Amin, Jay Frentress, Michael Engel, Chiara Marchina, Tommaso Anfodillo, Marco Borga, Vinicio Carraro, Francesca Scandellari, Massimo Tagliavini, Damiano Zanotelli, Francesco Comiti, and Daniele Penna
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3673–3689, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3673-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3673-2022, 2022
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We analyzed the variability in the isotopic composition of plant water extracted by two different methods, i.e., cryogenic vacuum distillation (CVD) and Scholander-type pressure chamber (SPC). Our results indicated that the isotopic composition of plant water extracted by CVD and SPC was significantly different. We concluded that plant water extraction by SPC is not an alternative for CVD as SPC mostly extracts the mobile plant water whereas CVD retrieves all water stored in the sampled tissue.
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1955–1968, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1955-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1955-2022, 2022
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The estimation of debris flow velocity and volume is a fundamental task for the development of early warning systems and other mitigation measures. This work provides a first approach for estimating the velocity and the total volume of debris flows based on the seismic signal detected with simple, low-cost geophones installed along the debris flow channel. The developed method was applied to seismic data collected at three test sites in the Alps: Gadria and Cancia (IT) and Lattenbach (AT).
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 87–97, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-87-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-87-2021, 2021
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Debris-flow research requires experimental data that are difficult to collect because of the intrinsic characteristics of these hazardous processes. This paper presents debris-flow data recorded in the Moscardo Torrent (Italian Alps) between 1990 and 2019. In this time interval, 30 debris flows were observed. The paper presents data on triggering rainfall, flow velocity, peak discharge, and volume for the monitored hydrographs.
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2041–2063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2041-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2041-2019, 2019
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Hydrometric and geochemical dynamics are controlled by interplay of meteorological conditions, topography and geological heterogeneity. Nivo-meteorological indicators (such as global solar radiation, temperature and decreasing snow depth) explain monthly conductivity and isotopic dynamics best. These insights are important for better understanding hydrochemical responses of glacierized catchments under a changing cryosphere.
Massimiliano Bordoni, M. Giuseppina Persichillo, Claudia Meisina, Stefano Crema, Marco Cavalli, Carlotta Bartelletti, Yuri Galanti, Michele Barsanti, Roberto Giannecchini, and Giacomo D'Amato Avanzi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1735–1758, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1735-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1735-2018, 2018
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This paper aimed to develop and test a data-driven model for the identification of road sectors that are susceptible to be hit by shallow landslides triggered in slopes upstream of infrastructure. Most susceptible road traits were those located below steep slopes with a limited height (lower than 50 m), where sediment connectivity is high. The results of the susceptibility analysis can give asset managers indispensable information on the relative criticality of the different roads.
A. Antonello, S. Franceschi, V. Floreancig, F. Comiti, and G. Tonon
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-4-W2, 27–33, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-4-W2-27-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-4-W2-27-2017, 2017
Daniele Penna, Michael Engel, Giacomo Bertoldi, and Francesco Comiti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 23–41, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-23-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-23-2017, 2017
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In this research we used environmental tracers in the Saldur River catchment, Italian Alps to obtain new insight into the hydrology of glacierized catchments. We analysed the spatio-temporal variability of the tracer signature within the catchment, distinguished the contribution of groundwater, glacier melt and snowmelt to stream discharge, identified the sources of uncertainty in the estimation of streamflow components and presented a paradigm of hydrological function of glacierized catchments.
Alexandre Loye, Michel Jaboyedoff, Joshua Isaac Theule, and Frédéric Liébault
Earth Surf. Dynam., 4, 489–513, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-489-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-489-2016, 2016
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The sediment supply and storage changes from major channels of the Manival catchment (French Alps) were surveyed periodically for 16 months to study the coupling between sediment dynamics and torrent responses in terms of debris flow events. The spatial and seasonal variability of sediment delivery is displayed and analysed. This study shows that monitoring the changes within a torrent’s in-channel storage and its debris supply can improve knowledge on recharge thresholds leading to debris flow.
Sebastiano Trevisani and Marco Cavalli
Earth Surf. Dynam., 4, 343–358, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-343-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-343-2016, 2016
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The generalization of the concept of roughness implies the need to refer to a family of roughness indices capturing specific aspects of surface morphology. We test the application of a flow-oriented directional measure of roughness based on the geostatistical index MAD (median of absolute directional differences), computed considering gravity-driven flow direction. The use of flow-directional roughness improves geomorphometric modeling and the interpretation of landscape morphology.
A. Dell'Agnese, F. Brardinoni, M. Toro, L. Mao, M. Engel, and F. Comiti
Earth Surf. Dynam., 3, 527–542, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-527-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-527-2015, 2015
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A. Lucía, F. Comiti, M. Borga, M. Cavalli, and L. Marchi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1741–1755, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1741-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1741-2015, 2015
M. Arattano, V. Coviello, M. Cavalli, F. Comiti, P. Macconi, J. Theule, and S. Crema
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1545–1549, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1545-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1545-2015, 2015
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G. Bossi, M. Cavalli, S. Crema, S. Frigerio, B. Quan Luna, M. Mantovani, G. Marcato, L. Schenato, and A. Pasuto
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E. I. Nikolopoulos, M. Borga, F. Marra, S. Crema, and L. Marchi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 647–656, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-647-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-647-2015, 2015
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This study examines the seasonal and synoptic forcing patterns linked to debris flows occurring in the eastern Italian Alps. Results highlight that seasonal and synoptic pattern dependence is pronounced in both the debris-flow occurrence and the properties of triggering rainfall. Therefore, considering classification of debris flow events according to season and atmospheric circulation patterns can be used to improve existing warning systems that are operating on the basis of rainfall thresholds
D. Penna, M. Engel, L. Mao, A. Dell'Agnese, G. Bertoldi, and F. Comiti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5271–5288, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5271-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5271-2014, 2014
A. C. Mondini, A. Viero, M. Cavalli, L. Marchi, G. Herrera, and F. Guzzetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1749–1759, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1749-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1749-2014, 2014
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Jui-Sheng Chou, Hoang-Minh Nguyen, Huy-Phuong Phan, and Kuo-Lung Wang
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-156, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-156, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Landslides are complex phenomena causing important impacts in vulnerable areas, and they are often triggered by rainfall. Here, we develop a new approach that uses information on the temporal clustering of rainfall, i.e. multiple events close in time, to detect landslide events and compare it with the use of classical empirical rainfall thresholds, considering as a case study the region of Lisbon, Portugal. The results could help to improve the prediction of rainfall-triggered landslides.
Jianqi Zhuang, Jianbing Peng, Chenhui Du, Yi Zhu, and Jiaxu Kong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2615–2631, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2615-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2615-2024, 2024
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Alexander B. Prescott, Luke A. McGuire, Kwang-Sung Jun, Katherine R. Barnhart, and Nina S. Oakley
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Fire can dramatically increase the risk of debris flows to downstream communities with little warning, but hazard assessments have not traditionally included estimates of inundation. We unify models developed by the scientific community to create probabilistic estimates of inundation area in response to rainfall at forecast lead times (≥ 24 h) needed for decision-making. This work takes an initial step toward a near-real-time postfire debris-flow inundation hazard assessment product.
Francis K. Rengers, Samuel Bower, Andrew Knapp, Jason W. Kean, Danielle W. vonLembke, Matthew A. Thomas, Jaime Kostelnik, Katherine R. Barnhart, Matthew Bethel, Joseph E. Gartner, Madeline Hille, Dennis M. Staley, Justin K. Anderson, Elizabeth K. Roberts, Stephen B. DeLong, Belize Lane, Paxton Ridgway, and Brendan P. Murphy
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Ellen B. Robson, Bhim Kumar Dahal, and David G. Toll
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1300, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1300, 2024
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Slopes excavated alongside roads in Nepal frequently fail (a landslide), resulting in substantial losses. Our participatory approach study involving road engineers aimed to assess the efficacy of the current slope design guidelines in Nepal. Our study revealed inconsistent guideline adherence due to their lack of user-friendliness and inadequate training. We recommend developing simpler, context-specific guidelines and comprehensive training to enhance resilience in Nepal's road network.
Jui-Ming Chang, Che-Ming Yang, Wei-An Chao, Chin-Shang Ku, Ming-Wan Huang, Tung-Chou Hsieh, and Chi-Yao Hung
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1267, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1267, 2024
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The study on the Cilan Landslide (CL) demonstrates the utilization of seismic analysis results as preliminary data for geologists during field surveys. Spectrograms revealed that the 1st event of CL consisted of 4 sliding failures, accompanied by a gradual reduction in landslide volume. The 2nd and 3rd events were minor topplings and rockfalls. Then combining the seismological-based knowledge and field survey results, the temporal-spatial variation of landslide evolution is proposed.
Praveen Kumar, Priyanka Priyanka, Kala Venkata Uday, and Varun Dutt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1913–1928, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1913-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1913-2024, 2024
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Our study focuses on predicting soil movement to mitigate landslide risks. We develop machine learning models with oversampling techniques to address the class imbalance in monitoring data. The dynamic ensemble model with K-means SMOTE (synthetic minority oversampling technique) achieves high precision, high recall, and a high F1 score. Our findings highlight the potential of these models with oversampling techniques to improve soil movement predictions in landslide-prone areas.
Kristian Svennevig, Julian Koch, Marie Keiding, and Gregor Luetzenburg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1897–1911, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1897-2024, 2024
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In our study, we analysed publicly available data in order to investigate the impact of climate change on landslides in Denmark. Our research indicates that the rising groundwater table due to climate change will result in an increase in landslide activity. Previous incidents of extremely wet winters have caused damage to infrastructure and buildings due to landslides. This study is the first of its kind to exclusively rely on public data and examine landslides in Denmark.
Christoph Schaller, Luuk Dorren, Massimiliano Schwarz, Christine Moos, Arie C. Seijmonsbergen, and E. Emiel van Loon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-76, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-76, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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We developed a machine learning-based approach to predict the potential thickness of shallow landslides to generate improved inputs for slope stability models. We selected 21 explanatory variables including metrics on terrain, geomorphology, vegetation height, and lithology and used data from two Swiss field inventories to calibrate and test the models. The best performing machine learning model consistently reduced the mean average error by least 17 % compared to previously existing models.
Jiao Wang, Zhangxing Wang, Guanhua Sun, and Hongming Luo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1741–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1741-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1741-2024, 2024
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With a simplified formula linking rainfall and groundwater level, the rise of the phreatic surface within the slope can be obtained. Then, a global analysis method that considers both seepage and seismic forces is proposed to determine the safety factor of slopes subjected to the combined effect of rainfall and earthquakes. By taking a slope in the Three Gorges Reservoir area as an example, the safety evolution of the slope combined with both rainfall and earthquake is also examined.
Carlo Tacconi Stefanelli, William Frodella, Francesco Caleca, Zhanar Raimbekova, Ruslan Umaraliev, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1697–1720, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1697-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1697-2024, 2024
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Central Asia regions are marked by active tectonics, high mountains with glaciers, and strong rainfall. These predisposing factors make large landslides a serious threat in the area and a source of possible damming scenarios, which endanger the population. To prevent this, a semi-automated geographic information system (GIS-)based mapping method, centered on a bivariate correlation of morphometric parameters, was applied to give preliminary information on damming susceptibility in Central Asia.
Rex L. Baum, Dianne L. Brien, Mark E. Reid, William H. Schulz, and Matthew J. Tello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1579–1605, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1579-2024, 2024
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We mapped potential for heavy rainfall to cause landslides in part of the central mountains of Puerto Rico using new tools for estimating soil depth and quasi-3D slope stability. Potential ground-failure locations correlate well with the spatial density of landslides from Hurricane Maria. The smooth boundaries of the very high and high ground-failure susceptibility zones enclose 75 % and 90 %, respectively, of observed landslides. The maps can help mitigate ground-failure hazards.
Katherine R. Barnhart, Christopher R. Miller, Francis K. Rengers, and Jason W. Kean
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1459–1483, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1459-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1459-2024, 2024
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Debris flows are a type of fast-moving landslide that start from shallow landslides or during intense rain. Infrastructure located downstream of watersheds susceptible to debris flows may be damaged should a debris flow reach them. We present and evaluate an approach to forecast building damage caused by debris flows. We test three alternative models for simulating the motion of debris flows and find that only one can forecast the correct number and spatial pattern of damaged buildings.
Luke A. McGuire, Francis K. Rengers, Ann M. Youberg, Alexander N. Gorr, Olivia J. Hoch, Rebecca Beers, and Ryan Porter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1357–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1357-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1357-2024, 2024
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Runoff and erosion increase after fire, leading to a greater likelihood of floods and debris flows. We monitored debris flow activity following a fire in western New Mexico, USA, and observed 16 debris flows over a <2-year monitoring period. Rainstorms with recurrence intervals of approximately 1 year were sufficient to initiate debris flows. All debris flows initiated during the first several months following the fire, indicating a rapid decrease in debris flow susceptibility over time.
Ken'ichi Koshimizu, Satoshi Ishimaru, Fumitoshi Imaizumi, and Gentaro Kawakami
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1287–1301, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1287-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1287-2024, 2024
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Morphological conditions of drainage basins that classify the presence or absence of debris flow fans were analyzed in areas with different rock strength using decision tree analysis. The relief ratio is the most important morphological factor regardless of the geology. However, the thresholds of morphological parameters needed for forming debris flow fans differ depending on the geology. Decision tree analysis is an effective tool for evaluating the debris flow risk for each geology.
Jonathan P. Perkins, Nina S. Oakley, Brian D. Collins, Skye C. Corbett, and W. Paul Burgess
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-873, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-873, 2024
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Landslides are a global issue that results in deaths and economic losses annually. However, it is not clear how storm severity relates to landslide severity across large regions. Here we develop a method to estimate the footprint of landslide area and compare this to meteorologic estimates of storm severity. We find that total storm strength does not clearly relate to landslide area. Rather, landslide area depends on soil wetness and smaller storm structures that can produce intense rainfall.
Daniel Bolliger, Fritz Schlunegger, and Brian W. McArdell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1035–1049, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1035-2024, 2024
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We analysed data from the Illgraben debris flow monitoring station, Switzerland, and we modelled these flows with a debris flow runout model. We found that no correlation exists between the grain size distribution, the mineralogical composition of the matrix, and the debris flow properties. The flow properties rather appear to be determined by the flow volume, from which most other parameters can be derived.
Yuntao Zhou, Xiaoyan Zhao, Guangze Zhang, Bernd Wünnemann, Jiajia Zhang, and Minghui Meng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 891–906, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-891-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-891-2024, 2024
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We developed three rock bridge models to analyze 3D stability and deformation behaviors of the Tizicao landslide and found that the contact surface model with high strength parameters combines advantages of the intact rock mass model in simulating the deformation of slopes with rock bridges and the modeling advantage of the Jennings model. The results help in choosing a rock bridge model to simulate landslide stability and reveal the influence laws of rock bridges on the stability of landslides.
Ashok Dahal, Hakan Tanyas, Cees van Westen, Mark van der Meijde, Paul Martin Mai, Raphaël Huser, and Luigi Lombardo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 823–845, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-823-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-823-2024, 2024
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We propose a modeling approach capable of recognizing slopes that may generate landslides, as well as how large these mass movements may be. This protocol is implemented, tested, and validated with data that change in both space and time via an Ensemble Neural Network architecture.
Li-Ru Luo, Zhi-Xiang Yu, Li-Jun Zhang, Qi Wang, Lin-Xu Liao, and Li Peng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 631–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-631-2024, 2024
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We performed field investigations on a rockfall near Jiguanshan National Forest Park, Chengdu. Vital information was obtained from an unmanned aerial vehicle survey. A finite element model was created to reproduce the damage evolution. We found that the impact kinetic energy was below the design protection energy. Improper member connections prevent the barrier from producing significant deformation to absorb energy. Damage is avoided by improving the ability of the nets and ropes to slide.
Sudhanshu Dixit, Srikrishnan Siva Subramanian, Piyush Srivastava, Ali P. Yunus, Tapas Ranjan Martha, and Sumit Sen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 465–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-465-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-465-2024, 2024
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Rainfall intensity–duration (ID) thresholds can aid in the prediction of natural hazards. Large-scale sediment disasters like landslides, debris flows, and flash floods happen frequently in the Himalayas because of their propensity for intense precipitation events. We provide a new framework that combines the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a regionally distributed numerical model for debris flows to analyse and predict intense rainfall-induced landslides in the Himalayas.
Jacob B. Woodard, Benjamin B. Mirus, Nathan J. Wood, Kate E. Allstadt, Benjamin A. Leshchinsky, and Matthew M. Crawford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1-2024, 2024
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Dividing landscapes into hillslopes greatly improves predictions of landslide potential across landscapes, but their scaling is often arbitrarily set and can require significant computing power to delineate. Here, we present a new computer program that can efficiently divide landscapes into meaningful slope units scaled to best capture landslide processes. The results of this work will allow an improved understanding of landslide potential and can help reduce the impacts of landslides worldwide.
Anne Felsberg, Zdenko Heyvaert, Jean Poesen, Thomas Stanley, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3805–3821, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023, 2023
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The Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS) model combines ensembles of landslide susceptibility and of hydrological predictor variables to provide daily, global ensembles of hazard for hydrologically triggered landslides. Testing different hydrological predictors showed that the combination of rainfall and soil moisture performed best, with the lowest number of missed and false alarms. The ensemble approach allowed the estimation of the associated prediction uncertainty.
Mark Bloomberg, Tim Davies, Elena Moltchanova, Tom Robinson, and David Palmer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2695, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2695, 2023
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Debris flows occur infrequently, with average recurrence intervals (ARIs) ranging from decades to millennia. Consequently, they pose an underappreciated hazard. We describe how to make a preliminary identification of debris flow-susceptible catchments, estimate threshold ARIs for debris flows which pose an unacceptable risk to life, and identify the "window of non-recognition" where debris flows are infrequent enough that their hazard is unrecognised, yet frequent enough to pose a risk to life.
Xushan Shi, Bo Chai, Juan Du, Wei Wang, and Bo Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3425–3443, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3425-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3425-2023, 2023
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A 3D stability analysis method is proposed for biased rockfall with external erosion. Four failure modes are considered according to rockfall evolution processes, including partial damage of underlying soft rock and overall failure of hard rock blocks. This method is validated with the biased rockfalls in the Sichuan Basin, China. The critical retreat ratio from low to moderate rockfall susceptibility is 0.33. This method could facilitate rockfall early identification and risk mitigation.
Marius Schneider, Nicolas Oestreicher, Thomas Ehrat, and Simon Loew
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3337–3354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3337-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3337-2023, 2023
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Rockfalls and their hazards are typically treated as statistical events based on rockfall catalogs, but only a few complete rockfall inventories are available today. Here, we present new results from a Doppler radar rockfall alarm system, which has operated since 2018 at a high frequency under all illumination and weather conditions at a site where frequent rockfall events threaten a village and road. The new data set is used to investigate rockfall triggers in an active rockslide complex.
Annette I. Patton, Lisa V. Luna, Joshua J. Roering, Aaron Jacobs, Oliver Korup, and Benjamin B. Mirus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3261–3284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3261-2023, 2023
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Landslide warning systems often use statistical models to predict landslides based on rainfall. They are typically trained on large datasets with many landslide occurrences, but in rural areas large datasets may not exist. In this study, we evaluate which statistical model types are best suited to predicting landslides and demonstrate that even a small landslide inventory (five storms) can be used to train useful models for landslide early warning when non-landslide events are also included.
Sandra Melzner, Marco Conedera, Johannes Hübl, and Mauro Rossi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3079–3093, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3079-2023, 2023
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The estimation of the temporal frequency of the involved rockfall processes is an important part in hazard and risk assessments. Different methods can be used to collect and analyse rockfall data. From a statistical point of view, rockfall datasets are nearly always incomplete. Accurate data collection approaches and the application of statistical methods on existing rockfall data series as reported in this study should be better considered in rockfall hazard and risk assessments in the future.
Stefan Hergarten
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3051–3063, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3051-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3051-2023, 2023
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Rockslides are a major hazard in mountainous regions. In formerly glaciated regions, the disposition mainly arises from oversteepened topography and decreases through time. However, little is known about this decrease and thus about the present-day hazard of huge, potentially catastrophic rockslides. This paper presents a new theoretical framework that explains the decrease in maximum rockslide size through time and predicts the present-day frequency of large rockslides for the European Alps.
Colin K. Bloom, Corinne Singeisen, Timothy Stahl, Andrew Howell, Chris Massey, and Dougal Mason
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2987–3013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2987-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2987-2023, 2023
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Landslides are often observed on coastlines following large earthquakes, but few studies have explored this occurrence. Here, statistical modelling of landslides triggered by the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake in New Zealand is used to investigate factors driving coastal earthquake-induced landslides. Geology, steep slopes, and shaking intensity are good predictors of landslides from the Kaikōura event. Steeper slopes close to the coast provide the best explanation for a high landslide density.
Yi-Min Huang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2649–2662, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2649-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2649-2023, 2023
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Debris flows are common hazards in Taiwan, and debris-flow early warning is important for disaster responses. The rainfall thresholds of debris flows are analyzed and determined in terms of rainfall intensity, accumulated rainfall, and rainfall duration, based on case histories in Taiwan. These thresholds are useful for disaster management, and the cases in Taiwan are useful for global debris-flow databases.
Davide Notti, Martina Cignetti, Danilo Godone, and Daniele Giordan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2625–2648, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2625-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2625-2023, 2023
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We developed a cost-effective and user-friendly approach to map shallow landslides using free satellite data. Our methodology involves analysing the pre- and post-event NDVI variation to semi-automatically detect areas potentially affected by shallow landslides (PLs). Additionally, we have created Google Earth Engine scripts to rapidly compute NDVI differences and time series of affected areas. Datasets and codes are stored in an open data repository for improvement by the scientific community.
Simon Seelig, Thomas Wagner, Karl Krainer, Michael Avian, Marc Olefs, Klaus Haslinger, and Gerfried Winkler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2547–2568, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2547-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2547-2023, 2023
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A rapid sequence of cascading events involving thermokarst lake outburst, rock glacier front failure, debris flow development, and river blockage hit an alpine valley in Austria during summer 2019. We analyze the environmental conditions initiating the process chain and identify the rapid evolution of a thermokarst channel network as the main driver. Our results highlight the need to account for permafrost degradation in debris flow hazard assessment studies.
Camilla Lanfranconi, Paolo Frattini, Gianluca Sala, Giuseppe Dattola, Davide Bertolo, Juanjuan Sun, and Giovanni Battista Crosta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2349–2363, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2349-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2349-2023, 2023
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This paper presents a study on rockfall dynamics and hazard, examining the impact of the presence of trees along slope and block fragmentation. We compared rockfall simulations that explicitly model the presence of trees and fragmentation with a classical approach that accounts for these phenomena in model parameters (both the hazard and the kinetic energy change). We also used a non-parametric probabilistic rockfall hazard analysis method for hazard mapping.
Ascanio Rosi, William Frodella, Nicola Nocentini, Francesco Caleca, Hans Balder Havenith, Alexander Strom, Mirzo Saidov, Gany Amirgalievich Bimurzaev, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2229–2250, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2229-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2229-2023, 2023
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This work was carried out within the Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia (SFRARR) project and is focused on the first landslide susceptibility analysis at a regional scale for Central Asia. The most detailed available landslide inventories were implemented in a random forest model. The final aim was to provide a useful tool for reduction strategies to landslide scientists, practitioners, and administrators.
Francis K. Rengers, Luke A. McGuire, Katherine R. Barnhart, Ann M. Youberg, Daniel Cadol, Alexander N. Gorr, Olivia J. Hoch, Rebecca Beers, and Jason W. Kean
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2075–2088, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2075-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2075-2023, 2023
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Debris flows often occur after wildfires. These debris flows move water, sediment, and wood. The wood can get stuck in channels, creating a dam that holds boulders, cobbles, sand, and muddy material. We investigated how the channel width and wood length influenced how much sediment is stored. We also used a series of equations to back calculate the debris flow speed using the breaking threshold of wood. These data will help improve models and provide insight into future field investigations.
Maxime Morel, Guillaume Piton, Damien Kuss, Guillaume Evin, and Caroline Le Bouteiller
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1769–1787, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1769-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1769-2023, 2023
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In mountain catchments, damage during floods is generally primarily driven by the supply of a massive amount of sediment. Predicting how much sediment can be delivered by frequent and infrequent events is thus important in hazard studies. This paper uses data gathered during the maintenance operation of about 100 debris retention basins to build simple equations aiming at predicting sediment supply from simple parameters describing the upstream catchment.
Elsa S. Culler, Ben Livneh, Balaji Rajagopalan, and Kristy F. Tiampo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1631–1652, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1631-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1631-2023, 2023
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Landslides have often been observed in the aftermath of wildfires. This study explores regional patterns in the rainfall that caused landslides both after fires and in unburned locations. In general, landslides that occur after fires are triggered by less rainfall, confirming that fire helps to set the stage for landslides. However, there are regional differences in the ways in which fire impacts landslides, such as the size and direction of shifts in the seasonality of landslides after fires.
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