Articles | Volume 24, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Assessment of wind–damage relations for Norway using 36 years of daily insurance data
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Asgeir Sorteberg
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Clio Michel
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Bergen, Norway
Øyvind Breivik
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Bergen, Norway
Related authors
Ashbin Jaison, Asgeir Sorteberg, Clio Michel, and Øyvind Breivik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-90, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-90, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
The benefits of establishing wind storm damage relationships are twofold: 1) forecasting losses and 2) assessment of the damages post event. The present study uses the daily insurance losses and wind speeds to fit storm damage functions at the municipality level of Norway. The results show that the damage functions accurately estimate losses associated with extreme damaging events and can reconstruct their spatial patterns in the complex terrain of Norway.
Emil Bruvik and Asgeir Sorteberg
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3654, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3654, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
We develop an open-source, physics-based framework for simulating hourly wind and solar generation for 30,000+ European farms over 30 years, validated at national, bidding-zone, and individual farm level. The model uses open generator registries combined with high-resolution reanalysis data and physics-based conversion models estimate per-farm output. Simulated generation closely matches national and farm-level observations, making it suited for grid planning and energy system studies.
Ashbin Jaison, Asgeir Sorteberg, Clio Michel, and Øyvind Breivik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-90, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-90, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
The benefits of establishing wind storm damage relationships are twofold: 1) forecasting losses and 2) assessment of the damages post event. The present study uses the daily insurance losses and wind speeds to fit storm damage functions at the municipality level of Norway. The results show that the damage functions accurately estimate losses associated with extreme damaging events and can reconstruct their spatial patterns in the complex terrain of Norway.
Clio Michel, Erica Madonna, Clemens Spensberger, Camille Li, and Stephen Outten
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1131–1148, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1131-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1131-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models still struggle to correctly represent blocking frequency over the North Atlantic–European domain. This study makes use of five large ensembles of climate simulations and the ERA-Interim reanalyses to investigate the Greenland blocking frequency and one of its drivers, namely cyclonic Rossby wave breaking. We particularly try to understand the discrepancies between two specific models, out of the five, that behave differently.
Ida Marie Solbrekke, Asgeir Sorteberg, and Hilde Haakenstad
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 1501–1519, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1501-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1501-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We validate new high-resolution data set (NORA3) for offshore wind power purposes for the North Sea and the Norwegian Sea. The aim of the validation is to ensure that NORA3 can act as a wind resource data set in the planning phase for future offshore wind power installations in the area of concern. The general conclusion of the validation is that NORA3 is well suited for wind power estimates but gives slightly conservative estimates of the offshore wind metrics.
Cited articles
Aznar-Siguan, G. and Bresch, D. N.: CLIMADA v1: a global weather and climate risk assessment platform, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3085–3097, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3085-2019, 2019. a
Cardona, O. D., Van Aalst, M. K., Birkmann, J., Fordham, M., Mc Gregor, G., Rosa, P., Pulwarty, R. S., Schipper, E. L. F., ad Sinh, B. T.: Determinants of risk: exposure and vulnerability, in: Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation: special report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, 65–108, Cambridge University Press, https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/SREX-Chap2_FINAL-1.pdf (last access: 1 March 2024), 2012. a
Cole, C. R., Macpherson, D. A., and McCullough, K. A.: A comparison of hurricane loss models, Journal of Insurance Issues, 33, 31–53, http://www.jstor.org/stable/41946301 (last access: 1 March 2024), 2010. a
Donat, M. G., Leckebusch, G. C., Wild, S., and Ulbrich, U.: Future changes in European winter storm losses and extreme wind speeds inferred from GCM and RCM multi-model simulations, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1351–1370, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-1351-2011, 2011a. a, b, c
Donat, M. G., Pardowitz, T., Leckebusch, G. C., Ulbrich, U., and Burghoff, O.: High-resolution refinement of a storm loss model and estimation of return periods of loss-intensive storms over Germany, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 2821–2833, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-2821-2011, 2011b. a, b, c
Dorland, C., Tol, R. S., and Palutikof, J. P.: Vulnerability of the Netherlands and Northwest Europe to storm damage under climate change, Climatic change, 43, 513–535, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005492126814, 1999. a, b, c, d
DSB Norway: Analyses of Crisis Scenarios 2019, https://www.dsb.no/globalassets/dokumenter/rapporter/p2001636_aks_2019_eng.pdf (last access: 1 March 2024), 2019. a
Finance Norway: https://nask.finansnorge.no (last access: 1 March 2024), 2019. a
Gardiner, B., Schuck, A. R. T., Schelhaas, M.-J., Orazio, C., Blennow, K., and Nicoll, B.: Living with storm damage to forests, vol. 3, European Forest Institute Joensuu, https://efi.int/sites/default/files/files/publication-bank/2018/efi_wsctu3_2013.pdf (last access: 1 March 2024), 2013. a
Gliksman, D., Averbeck, P., Becker, N., Gardiner, B., Goldberg, V., Grieger, J., Handorf, D., Haustein, K., Karwat, A., Knutzen, F., Lentink, H. S., Lorenz, R., Niermann, D., Pinto, J. G., Queck, R., Ziemann, A., and Franzke, C. L. E.: Review article: A European perspective on wind and storm damage – from the meteorological background to index-based approaches to assess impacts, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2171–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, 2023. a
Haakenstad, H. and Breivik, Ø.: NORA3 Part II: Precipitation and temperature statistics in complex terrain modeled with a non-hydrostatic model, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 61, 1549–1572, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-22-0005.1, 2022. a
Haakenstad, H., Breivik, Ø., Furevik, B. R., Reistad, M., Bohlinger, P., and Aarnes, O. J.: NORA3: A Nonhydrostatic high-resolution hindcast of the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea, and the Barents Sea, J. Appl. Meteorol., 60, 1443–1464, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-21-0029.1, 2021. a, b, c
Held, H., Gerstengarbe, F.-W., Pardowitz, T., Pinto, J. G., Ulbrich, U., Born, K., Donat, M. G., Karremann, M. K., Leckebusch, G. C., Ludwig, P., Nissen, K. M., Österle, H., Prahl, B. F., Werner, P. C., Befart, D. J., and Burghoff, O.: Projections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector, Climatic Change, 121, 195–207, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0872-7, 2013. a, b
Heneka, P. and Hofherr, T.: Probabilistic winter storm risk assessment for residential buildings in Germany, Nat. Hazards, 56, 815–831, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-010-9593-7, 2011. a
Heneka, P. and Ruck, B.: A damage model for the assessment of storm damage to buildings, Eng. Struct., 30, 3603–3609, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2008.06.005, 2008. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., noz Sabater, J. M., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., Chiara, G. D., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: TheERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a
Hoskins, B. and Hodges, K.: The annual cycle of Northern Hemisphere storm tracks. Part I: Seasons, J. Climate, 32, 1743–1760, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0870.1, 2019. a
Huang, Z., Rosowsky, D. V., and Sparks, P. R.: Long-term hurricane risk assessment and expected damage to residential structures, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safe., 74, 239–249, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0951-8320(01)00086-2, 2001. a, b
Jensen, Ø., Dempster, T., Thorstad, E., Uglem, I., and Fredheim, A.: Escapes of fishes from Norwegian sea-cage aquaculture: causes, consequences and prevention, Aquaculture Env. Interac., 1, 71–83, https://doi.org/10.3354/aei00008, 2010. a
Karremann, M. K., Pinto, J. G., von Bomhard, P. J., and Klawa, M.: On the clustering of winter storm loss events over Germany, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2041–2052, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2041-2014, 2014a. a
Karremann, M. K., Pinto, J. G., Reyers, M., and Klawa, M.: Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 124016, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124016, 2014b. a, b
Koks, E. and Haer, T.: A high-resolution wind damage model for Europe, Sci. Rep., 10, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-63580-w, 2020. a
Little, A. S., Priestley, M. D., and Catto, J. L.: Future increased risk from extratropical windstorms in northern Europe, Nat. Commun., 14, 4434, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-40102-6, 2023. a
Merz, B., Kuhlicke, C., Kunz, M., Pittore, M., Babeyko, A., Bresch, D. N., Domeisen, D. I., Feser, F., Koszalka, I., Kreibich, H., Pantillon, F., Parolai, S., Pinto, J. G., Punge, H. J., Rivalta, E., Schröter, K., Strehlow, K., Weisse, R., and Wurpst, A.: Impact forecasting to support emergency management of natural hazards, Rev. Geophys., 58, e2020RG000704, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000704, 2020. a
Michel, C. and Sorteberg, A.: Future Projections of EURO-CORDEX Raw and Bias-Corrected Daily Maximum Wind Speeds Over Scandinavia, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 128, e2022JD037953, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037953, 2023. a
Murnane, R. J. and Elsner, J. B.: Maximum wind speeds and US hurricane losses, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L16707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052740, 2012. a
Norwegian Meteorological Institute: NORA3 3-km Norwegian Reanalysis, https://thredds.met.no/thredds/projects/nora3.html (last access: 1 March 2024), 2021. a
Pardowitz, T., Osinski, R., Kruschke, T., and Ulbrich, U.: An analysis of uncertainties and skill in forecasts of winter storm losses, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2391–2402, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2391-2016, 2016. a
Pinto, J. G., Fröhlich, E. L., Leckebusch, G. C., and Ulbrich, U.: Changing European storm loss potentials under modified climate conditions according to ensemble simulations of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 7, 165–175, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-7-165-2007, 2007. a, b, c
Pinto, J. G., Karremann, M. K., Born, K., Della-Marta, P. M., and Klawa, M.: Loss potentials associated with European windstorms under future climate conditions, Clim. Res., 54, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01111, 2012. a, b
Priestley, M. D. K. and Catto, J. L.: Future changes in the extratropical storm tracks and cyclone intensity, wind speed, and structure, Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 337–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-337-2022, 2022. a
Reistad, M., Breivik, Ø., Haakenstad, H., Aarnes, O. J., Furevik, B. R., and Bidlot, J.-R.: A high-resolution hindcast of wind and waves for the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea, and the Barents Sea, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 116, C05019, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JC006402, 2011. a
Sandberg, E., Økland, A., and Tyholt, I. L.: Natural perils insurance and compensation arrangements in six countries, https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2659936 (last access: 1 March 2024), 2020. a
Schwierz, C., Köllner-Heck, P., Zenklusen Mutter, E., Bresch, D. N., Vidale, P.-L., Wild, M., and Schär, C.: Modelling European winter wind storm losses in current and future climate, Climatic Change, 101, 485–514, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9712-1, 2010. a, b
Seity, Y., Brousseau, P., Malardel, S., Hello, G., Benard, P., Bouttier, F., Lac, C., and Masson, V.: The AROME-France Convective-Scale Operational Model, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 976–991, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3425.1, 2011. a
Severino, L. G., Kropf, C. M., Afargan-Gerstman, H., Fairless, C., de Vries, A. J., Domeisen, D. I. V., and Bresch, D. N.: Projections and uncertainties of future winter windstorm damage in Europe, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-205, 2023. a
Simensen, T., Erikstad, L., and Halvorsen, R.: Diversity and distribution of landscape types in Norway, Norsk Geogr. Tidsskr., 75, 79–100, https://doi.org/10.1080/00291951.2021.1892177, 2021. a
Simpson, A., Murnane, R., Saito, K., Phillips, E., Reid, R., and Himmelfarb, A.: Understanding risk in an evolving world: emerging best practices in natural disaster risk assessment, Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, The World Bank, UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, Washington, DC, https://www.gfdrr.org/sites/default/files/publication/Understanding_Risk-Web_Version-rev_1.8.0.pdf (last access: 1 March 2024), 2014. a
Sokolova, M. and Lapalme, G.: A systematic analysis of performance measures for classification tasks, Inform. Process. Manag., 45, 427–437, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ipm.2009.03.002, 2009. a
Solbrekke, I. M., Sorteberg, A., and Haakenstad, H.: The 3 km Norwegian reanalysis (NORA3) – a validation of offshore wind resources in the North Sea and the Norwegian Sea, Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 1501–1519, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1501-2021, 2021. a
SSB Norway: Consumer price index, https://www.ssb.no/en/priser-og-prisindekser/konsumpriser/statistikk/konsumprisindeksen (last access: 1 March 2024), 2023a. a
SSB Norway: Population 1 January and population changes during the calendar year (M) 1951–2023, https://www.ssb.no/en/statbank/table/06913/ (last access: 1 March 2024), 2023b. a
Strand, G.-H. and Bloch, V. H.: Statistical grids for Norway, 9, https://www.ssb.no/a/english/publikasjoner/pdf/doc_200909_en/doc_200909_en.pdf (last access: 1 March 2024), 2009. a
Taylor, A. L., Kox, T., and Johnston, D.: Communicating high impact weather: Improving warnings and decision making processes, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 30, 1–4 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.04.002, 2018. a
Walker, G. R.: Modelling the vulnerability of buildings to wind – a review, Can. J. Civil Eng., 38, 1031–1039, 2011. a
Welker, C., Martius, O., Stucki, P., Bresch, D., Dierer, S., and Brönnimann, S.: Modelling economic losses of historic and present-day high-impact winter windstorms in Switzerland, Tellus A, 68, 29546, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v68.29546, 2016. a, b
Welker, C., Röösli, T., and Bresch, D. N.: Comparing an insurer's perspective on building damages with modelled damages from pan-European winter windstorm event sets: a case study from Zurich, Switzerland, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 279–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-279-2021, 2021. a
Zhang, Q., Li, L., Ebert, B., Golding, B., Johnston, D., Mills, B., Panchuk, S., Potter, S., Riemer, M., Sun, J., Taylor, A., Jones, S., Ruth, P., and Keller, J.: Increasing the value of weather-related warnings, Sci. Bull., 64, 647–649, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2019.04.003, 2019. a
Short summary
The present study uses daily insurance losses and wind speeds to fit storm damage functions at the municipality level of Norway. The results show that the damage functions accurately estimate losses associated with extreme damaging events and can reconstruct their spatial patterns. However, there is no single damage function that performs better than another. A newly devised damage–no-damage classifier shows some skill in predicting extreme damaging events.
The present study uses daily insurance losses and wind speeds to fit storm damage functions at...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint