Articles | Volume 23, issue 9
Research article
06 Sep 2023
Research article |  | 06 Sep 2023

Fire risk modeling: an integrated and data-driven approach applied to Sicily

Alba Marquez Torres, Giovanni Signorello, Sudeshna Kumar, Greta Adamo, Ferdinando Villa, and Stefano Balbi

Related authors

Pollination supply models from a local to global scale
Angel Giménez-García, Alfonso Allen-Perkins, Ignasi Bartomeus, Stefano Balbi, Jessica L. Knapp, Violeta Hevia, Ben Alex Woodcock, Guy Smagghe, Marcos Miñarro, Maxime Eeraerts, Jonathan F. Colville, Juliana Hipólito, Pablo Cavigliasso, Guiomar Nates-Parra, José M. Herrera, Sarah Cusser, Benno I. Simmons, Volkmar Wolters, Shalene Jha, Breno M. Freitas, Finbarr G. Horgan, Derek R. Artz, C. Sheena Sidhu, Mark Otieno, Virginie Boreux, David J. Biddinger, Alexandra-Maria Klein, Neelendra K. Joshi, Rebecca I. A. Stewart, Matthias Albrecht, Charlie C. Nicholson, Alison D. O'Reilly, David William Crowder, Katherine L. W. Burns, Diego Nicolás Nabaes Jodar, Lucas Alejandro Garibaldi, Louis Sutter, Yoko L. Dupont, Bo Dalsgaard, Jeferson Gabriel da Encarnação Coutinho, Amparo Lázaro, Georg K. S. Andersson, Nigel E. Raine, Smitha Krishnan, Matteo Dainese, Wopke van der Werf, Henrik G. Smith, and Ainhoa Magrach
Web Ecol., 23, 99–129,,, 2023
Short summary
A spatial Bayesian network model to assess the benefits of early warning for urban flood risk to people
Stefano Balbi, Ferdinando Villa, Vahid Mojtahed, Karin Tessa Hegetschweiler, and Carlo Giupponi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1323–1337,,, 2016
Short summary

Related subject area

Other Hazards (e.g., Glacial and Snow Hazards, Karst, Wildfires Hazards, and Medical Geo-Hazards)
Brief communication: The Lahaina Fire disaster – how models can be used to understand and predict wildfires
Timothy W. Juliano, Fernando Szasdi-Bardales, Neil P. Lareau, Kasra Shamsaei, Branko Kosović, Negar Elhami-Khorasani, Eric P. James, and Hamed Ebrahimian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 47–52,,, 2024
Short summary
Prediction of natural dry-snow avalanche activity using physics-based snowpack simulations
Stephanie Mayer, Frank Techel, Jürg Schweizer, and Alec van Herwijnen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3445–3465,,, 2023
Short summary
Automated Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) mapping – Local validation and optimization in Western Canada
John Sykes, Håvard Toft, Pascal Haegeli, and Grant Statham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,,, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Early warning system for ice collapses and river blockages in the Sedongpu Valley, southeastern Tibetan Plateau
Wei Yang, Zhongyan Wang, Baosheng An, Yingying Chen, Chuanxi Zhao, Chenhui Li, Yongjie Wang, Weicai Wang, Jiule Li, Guangjian Wu, Lin Bai, Fan Zhang, and Tandong Yao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3015–3029,,, 2023
Short summary
Avalanche size estimation and avalanche outline determination by experts: reliability and implications for practice
Elisabeth D. Hafner, Frank Techel, Rodrigo Caye Daudt, Jan Dirk Wegner, Konrad Schindler, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2895–2914,,, 2023
Short summary

Cited articles

Ager, A. and Finney, M. A.: Climate change impact on fire probability and severity in Mediterranean areas, in: Proceedings of the VI International Conference on Forest Fire Research, 15–18 November 2010, University of Coimbra Viegas, Coimbra, Portugal, p. 9,, last access: 30 August 2023), U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2010. 
Aguilera, P. A., Fernández, A., Fernández, R., Rumí, R., and Salmerón, A.: Bayesian networks in environmental modelling, Environ. Model. Softw., 26, 1376–1388,, 2011. 
Aldersley, A., Murray, S. J., and Cornell, S. E.: Global and regional analysis of climate and human drivers of wildfire, Sci. Total Environ., 409, 3472–3481,, 2011. 
Angelini, P., Bianco, P., Cardillo, A., Francescato, C., and Oriolo, G.: Gli habitat in Carta della Natura – schede descrittive degli habitat per la cartografia alla scala 1:50.000, ISPRA – Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale, ISBN 978-88-448-0382-7, 2009. 
Antrop, M.: Why landscapes of the past are important for the future, Landsc. Urban Plan., 70, 21–34,, 2005. 
Short summary
Only by mapping fire risks can we manage forest and prevent fires under current and future climate conditions. We present a fire risk map based on k.LAB, artificial-intelligence-powered and open-source software integrating multidisciplinary knowledge in near real time. Through an easy-to-use web application, we model the hazard with 84 % accuracy for Sicily, a representative Mediterranean region. Fire risk analysis reveals 45 % of vulnerable areas face a high probability of danger in 2050.
Final-revised paper