Articles | Volume 22, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2459-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2459-2022
Research article
 | 
01 Aug 2022
Research article |  | 01 Aug 2022

Assessing flood hazard changes using climate model forcing

David P. Callaghan and Michael G. Hughes

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Cited articles

Ahmadisharaf, E., Kalyanapu, A. J., and Bates, P. D.: A probabilistic framework for floodplain mapping using hydrological modeling and unsteady hydraulic modeling, Hydrol. Sci. J., 63, 1759–1775, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2018.1525615, 2018. 
Altenau, E. H., Pavelsky, T. M., Bates, P. D., and Neal, J. C.: The effects of spatial resolution and dimensionality on modeling regional-scale hydraulics in a multichannel river, Water Resour. Res., 53, 1683–1701, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016wr019396, 2017. 
Amarnath, G., Umer, Y. M., Alahacoon, N., and Inada, Y.: Modelling the flood-risk extent using LISFLOOD-FP in a complex watershed: case study of Mundeni Aru River Basin, Sri Lanka, Proc. IAHS, 370, 131–138, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-131-2015, 2015. 
Anonymous: Rural floodplain management plans: Background document to the floodplain management plan for the Gwydir Valley Floodplain, NSW Department of Primary Industries: Water, ISBN 978-1-74256-821-8, https://www.industry.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0018/146052/gwydir-fmp-background-document.pdf (last access: 1 July 2021), 2015. 
Apel, H., Merz, B., and Thieken, A. H.: Quantification of uncertainties in flood risk assessments, International Journal of River Basin Management, 6, 149–162, https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2008.9635344, 2008. 
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Short summary
A new method was developed to estimate changes in flood hazard under climate change. We use climate projections covering New South Wales, Australia, with two emission paths of business as usual and one with reduced emissions. We apply our method to the lower floodplain of the Gwydir Valley with changes in flood hazard provided over the next 90 years compared with the previous 50 years. We find that changes in flood hazard decrease over time within the Gwydir Valley floodplain.
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