Articles | Volume 21, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3353-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3353-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
09 Nov 2021
Research article |
| 09 Nov 2021
| 09 Nov 2021
Tidal flood area mapping in the face of climate change scenarios: case study in a tropical estuary in the Brazilian semi-arid region
Paulo Victor N. Araújo
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Postgraduate Program in Geodynamics and Geophysics (PPGG), Federal
University of Rio Grande do Norte, P.O. Box 1524, Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, 59078-970,
Brazil
Research Group on Environmental Analysis, Modelling and Geoinformation
(PAMGEIA), Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Rio
Grande do Norte, Macau, Rio Grande do Norte, 59500-000, Brazil
Laboratory of Geotechnologies, Coastal and Ocean Modelling (GNOMO),
Department of Civil Engineering, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte,
Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, 59078-970, Brazil
Venerando E. Amaro
Postgraduate Program in Geodynamics and Geophysics (PPGG), Federal
University of Rio Grande do Norte, P.O. Box 1524, Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, 59078-970,
Brazil
Laboratory of Geotechnologies, Coastal and Ocean Modelling (GNOMO),
Department of Civil Engineering, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte,
Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, 59078-970, Brazil
Leonlene S. Aguiar
Laboratory of Geotechnologies, Coastal and Ocean Modelling (GNOMO),
Department of Civil Engineering, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte,
Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, 59078-970, Brazil
Caio C. Lima
Laboratory of Geotechnologies, Coastal and Ocean Modelling (GNOMO),
Department of Civil Engineering, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte,
Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, 59078-970, Brazil
Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Rio Grande
do Norte, Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, 59015-000, Brazil
Alexandre B. Lopes
Center for Marine Studies (CEM), Federal University of Paraná, P.O. Box 61,
Curitiba, Paraná, 83225-976, Brazil
Related authors
Thiago Cavalcante Lins Silva, Marco Túlio Mendonça Diniz, Paulo Victor do Nascimento Araújo, José Yure Gomes Dos Santos, Bruno Ferreira, and Jucielho Pedro Da Silva
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4929, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4929, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the risks of sea level rise on Brazil's semi-arid coast, a vulnerable, low-lying region. Using open data, we modelled tidal flooding and assessed the social and economic impacts on towns and salt pan areas. The results revealed significant exposure even in conservative scenarios, emphasising the urgent need for adaptation in coastal areas of the Global South.
Thiago Cavalcante Lins Silva, Marco Túlio Mendonça Diniz, Paulo Victor do Nascimento Araújo, José Yure Gomes Dos Santos, Bruno Ferreira, and Jucielho Pedro Da Silva
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4929, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4929, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the risks of sea level rise on Brazil's semi-arid coast, a vulnerable, low-lying region. Using open data, we modelled tidal flooding and assessed the social and economic impacts on towns and salt pan areas. The results revealed significant exposure even in conservative scenarios, emphasising the urgent need for adaptation in coastal areas of the Global South.
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Short summary
The approach of this work is a tidal flood risk mapping methodology for climate change scenarios in a semi-arid region with a strong environmental and social appeal. The study area has been suffering severe consequences from flooding by tides in recent years. High-geodetic-precision data, together with tidal return period statistics and data from current sea level rise scenarios, were used. This case study can serve as a basis for future management actions and as a model to be copied.
The approach of this work is a tidal flood risk mapping methodology for climate change scenarios...
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