Articles | Volume 20, issue 9
Research article 14 Sep 2020
Research article | 14 Sep 2020
Storm tide amplification and habitat changes due to urbanization of a lagoonal estuary
Philip M. Orton et al.
No articles found.
Kytt MacManus, Deborah Balk, Hasim Engin, Gordon McGranahan, and Rya Inman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss.,
Revised manuscript under review for ESSDShort summary
New estimates of population and land area by settlement types within Low Elevation Coastal Zones (LECZs) based on 4 sources of population data, 4 sources of settlement data, and 4 sources of elevation data for the years 1990, 2000, and 2015. The paper describes the sensitivity of these estimates and discusses the fitness of use which could guide user decisions. Data choices impact the number of people estimated within LECZs, but across all sources the LECZs are predominantly Urban and growing.
Stefan Leyk, Andrea E. Gaughan, Susana B. Adamo, Alex de Sherbinin, Deborah Balk, Sergio Freire, Amy Rose, Forrest R. Stevens, Brian Blankespoor, Charlie Frye, Joshua Comenetz, Alessandro Sorichetta, Kytt MacManus, Linda Pistolesi, Marc Levy, Andrew J. Tatem, and Martino Pesaresi
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1385–1409,Short summary
Population data are essential for studies on human–nature relationships, disaster or environmental health. Several global and continental gridded population data have been produced but have never been systematically compared. This article fills this gap and critically compares these gridded population datasets. Through the lens of the
fitness for useconcept it provides users with the knowledge needed to make informed decisions about appropriate data use in relation to the target application.
Related subject area
Sea, Ocean and Coastal HazardsSea-level rise in Venice: historic and future trends (review article)Extreme floods of Venice: characteristics, dynamics, past and future evolution (review article)The prediction of floods in Venice: methods, models and uncertainty (review article)Venice flooding and sea level: past evolution, present issues, and future projections (introduction to the special issue)Estimation of the non-exceedance probability of extreme storm surges in South Korea using tidal-gauge dataTowards an efficient storm surge and inundation forecasting system over the Bengal delta: chasing the Supercyclone AmphanPerformance of the Adriatic early warning system during the multi-meteotsunami event of 11–19 May 2020: an assessment using energy bannersCharacteristics of building fragility curves for seismic and non-seismic tsunamis: case studies of the 2018 Sunda Strait, 2018 Sulawesi–Palu, and 2004 Indian Ocean tsunamisDeep uncertainties in shoreline change projections: an extra-probabilistic approach applied to sandy beachesTsunami propagation kernel and its applicationsA Bayesian network approach to modelling rip-current drownings and shore-break wave injuriesRegional analysis of multivariate compound coastal flooding potential around Europe and environs: sensitivity analysis and spatial patternsTsunami damage to ports: cataloguing damage to create fragility functions from the 2011 Tohoku eventSpatially compounded surge events: an example from hurricanes Matthew and FlorenceA cross-scale study for compound flooding processes during Hurricane FlorenceReconstruction of flow conditions from 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami deposits at the Phra Thong island using a deep neural network inverse modelNon-stationary analysis of water level extremes in Latvian waters, Baltic Sea, during 1961–2018An efficient two-layer landslide-tsunami numerical model: effects of momentum transfer validated with physical experiments of waves generated by granular landslidesTsunami heights and limits in 1945 along the Makran coast estimated from testimony gathered seven decades later in Gwadar, Pasni and OrmaraOceanic response to the consecutive Hurricanes Dorian and Humberto (2019) in the Sargasso SeaMultilayer-HySEA model validation for landslide-generated tsunamis – Part 1: Rigid slidesMultilayer-HySEA model validation for landslide-generated tsunamis – Part 2: Granular slidesTimescales of emergence of chronic flooding in the major economic center of GuadeloupeImpact of compound flood event on coastal critical infrastructures considering current and future climateStudy on the influence of the seafloor soft soil layer on seismic ground motionInfluence of hydrometeorological hazards and sea coast morphodynamics on development of Cephalanthero rubrae-Fagetum (Wolin island, the southern Baltic Sea)Observations of extreme wave runup events on the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastTrivariate copula to design coastal structuresBeachgoers' ability to identify rip currents at a beach in situWave height return periods from combined measurement–model data: a Baltic Sea case studyModeling dependence and coincidence of storm surges and high tide: methodology, discussion and recommendations based on a simplified case study in Le Havre (France)Laboratory study of non-linear wave–wave interactions of extreme focused waves in the nearshore zoneA nonstationary analysis for investigating the multiscale variability of extreme surges: case of the English Channel coastsLa Palma landslide tsunami: calibrated wave source and assessment of impact on French territoriesUncertainty quantification of tsunami inundation in Kuroshio, Kochi Prefecture, Japan, using the Nankai–Tonankai megathrust rupture scenariosInvestigating beach erosion related with tsunami sediment transport at Phra Thong Island, Thailand, caused by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunamiSimulation of storm surge inundation under different typhoon intensity scenarios: case study of Pingyang County, ChinaA statistical analysis of rogue waves in the southern North SeaQuantifying processes contributing to marine hazards to inform coastal climate resilience assessments, demonstrated for the Caribbean SeaMeteotsunami occurrence in the Gulf of Finland over the past centuryArctic tsunamis threaten coastal landscapes and communities – survey of Karrat Isfjord 2017 tsunami effects in Nuugaatsiaq, western GreenlandUncertainties in coastal flood risk assessments in small island developing statesLagrangian modelling of a person lost at sea during the Adriatic scirocco storm of 29 October 2018Deep submarine landslide contribution to the 2010 Haiti earthquake tsunamiExtreme storm tides in the German Bight (North Sea) and their potential for amplificationCoastal impacts of Storm Gloria (January 2020) over the north-western MediterraneanRegional frequency analysis of extreme storm surges using the extremogram approachExtreme wave analysis based on atmospheric pattern classification: an application along the Italian coastRisk assessment of sea ice disasters on fixed jacket platforms in Liaodong BayRun-up, inundation, and sediment characteristics of the 22 December 2018 Sunda Strait tsunami, Indonesia
Davide Zanchettin, Sara Bruni, Fabio Raicich, Piero Lionello, Fanny Adloff, Alexey Androsov, Fabrizio Antonioli, Vincenzo Artale, Eugenio Carminati, Christian Ferrarin, Vera Fofonova, Robert J. Nicholls, Sara Rubinetti, Angelo Rubino, Gianmaria Sannino, Giorgio Spada, Rémi Thiéblemont, Michael Tsimplis, Georg Umgiesser, Stefano Vignudelli, Guy Wöppelmann, and Susanna Zerbini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2643–2678,Short summary
Relative sea level in Venice rose by about 2.5 mm/year in the past 150 years due to the combined effect of subsidence and mean sea-level rise. We estimate the likely range of mean sea-level rise in Venice by 2100 due to climate changes to be between about 10 and 110 cm, with an improbable yet possible high-end scenario of about 170 cm. Projections of subsidence are not available, but historical evidence demonstrates that they can increase the hazard posed by climatically induced sea-level rise.
Piero Lionello, David Barriopedro, Christian Ferrarin, Robert J. Nicholls, Mirko Orlić, Fabio Raicich, Marco Reale, Georg Umgiesser, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Davide Zanchettin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2705–2731,Short summary
In this review we describe the factors leading to the extreme water heights producing the floods of Venice. We discuss the different contributions, their relative importance, and the resulting compound events. We highlight the role of relative sea level rise and the observed past and very likely future increase in extreme water heights, showing that they might be up to 160 % higher at the end of the 21st century than presently.
Georg Umgiesser, Marco Bajo, Christian Ferrarin, Andrea Cucco, Piero Lionello, Davide Zanchettin, Alvise Papa, Alessandro Tosoni, Maurizio Ferla, Elisa Coraci, Sara Morucci, Franco Crosato, Andrea Bonometto, Andrea Valentini, Mirko Orlić, Ivan D. Haigh, Jacob Woge Nielsen, Xavier Bertin, André Bustorff Fortunato, Begoña Pérez Gómez, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Denis Paradis, Didier Jourdan, Audrey Pasquet, Baptiste Mourre, Joaquín Tintoré, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2679–2704,Short summary
The city of Venice relies crucially on a good storm surge forecast to protect its population and cultural heritage. In this paper, we provide a state-of-the-art review of storm surge forecasting, starting from examples in Europe and focusing on the Adriatic Sea and the Lagoon of Venice. We discuss the physics of storm surge, as well as the particular aspects of Venice and new techniques in storm surge modeling. We also give recommendations on what a future forecasting system should look like.
Piero Lionello, Robert J. Nicholls, Georg Umgiesser, and Davide Zanchettin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2633–2641,Short summary
Venice is an iconic place, and a paradigm of huge historical and cultural value is at risk. The threat posed by floods has dramatically increased in recent decades and is expected to continue to grow – and even accelerate – through this century. There is a need to better understand the future evolution of the relative sea level and its extremes and to develop adaptive planning strategies appropriate for present uncertainty, which might not be substantially reduced in the near future.
Sang-Guk Yum, Hsi-Hsien Wei, and Sung-Hwan Jang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2611–2631,Short summary
Developed statistical models to predict the non-exceedance probability of extreme storm surge-induced typhoons. Various probability distribution models were applied to find the best fitting to empirical storm-surge data.
Md. Jamal Uddin Khan, Fabien Durand, Xavier Bertin, Laurent Testut, Yann Krien, A. K. M. Saiful Islam, Marc Pezerat, and Sazzad Hossain
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2523–2541,Short summary
The Bay of Bengal is well known for some of the deadliest cyclones in history. At the same time, storm surge forecasting in this region is physically involved and computationally costly. Here we show a proof of concept of a real-time, computationally efficient, and physically consistent forecasting system with an application to the recent Supercyclone Amphan. While challenges remain, our study paves the path forward to the improvement of the quality of localized forecast and disaster management.
Iva Tojčić, Cléa Denamiel, and Ivica Vilibić
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2427–2446,Short summary
This study quantifies the performance of the Croatian meteotsunami early warning system (CMeEWS) composed of a network of air pressure and sea level observations developed in order to help coastal communities prepare for extreme events. The system would have triggered the warnings for most of the observed events but also set off some false alarms if it was operational during the multi-meteotsunami event of 11–19 May 2020 in the eastern Adriatic. Further development of the system is planned.
Elisa Lahcene, Ioanna Ioannou, Anawat Suppasri, Kwanchai Pakoksung, Ryan Paulik, Syamsidik Syamsidik, Frederic Bouchette, and Fumihiko Imamura
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2313–2344,Short summary
In Indonesia, tsunamis represent a significant risk to coastal communities and buildings. Therefore, it is fundamental to deeply understand the tsunami source impact on buildings and infrastructure. This work provides a novel understanding of the relationship between wave period, ground shaking, liquefaction events, and potential building damage using tsunami fragility curves. This study represents the first investigation of colossal impacts increasing building damage.
Rémi Thiéblemont, Gonéri Le Cozannet, Jérémy Rohmer, Alexandra Toimil, Moisés Álvarez-Cuesta, and Iñigo J. Losada
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2257–2276,Short summary
Sea level rise and its acceleration are projected to aggravate coastal erosion over the 21st century. Resulting shoreline projections are deeply uncertain, however, which constitutes a major challenge for coastal planning and management. Our work presents a new extra-probabilistic framework to develop future shoreline projections and shows that deep uncertainties could be drastically reduced by better constraining sea level projections and improving coastal impact models.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2093–2108,Short summary
Tsunamis are a major threat to low-lying coastal communities. Suddenly generated from their sources in deep water, tsunamis occasionally undergo tremendous amplification in shallow water. There is a need for efficient ways of predicting coastal tsunami transformation during different disaster management phases. The study proposed a novel and rigorous method based on kernel convolution for fast prediction of onshore tsunami waveforms from the observed/simulated wave data away from the coast.
Elias de Korte, Bruno Castelle, and Eric Tellier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2075–2091,Short summary
We use a statistical model to address the controls and interactions of environmental (wave, tide, weather, beach morphology) data on surf zone injuries along a sandy coast where shore-break and rip-current hazards co-exist. Although fair but limited predictive life-risk skill is found, the approach provides new insight into the environmental controls, their interactions and their respective contribution to hazard and exposure, with implications for the development of public education messaging.
Paula Camus, Ivan D. Haigh, Ahmed A. Nasr, Thomas Wahl, Stephen E. Darby, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2021–2040,Short summary
In coastal regions, floods can arise through concurrent drivers, such as precipitation, river discharge, storm surge, and waves, which exacerbate the impact. In this study, we identify hotspots of compound flooding along the southern coast of the North Atlantic Ocean and the northern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. This regional assessment can be considered a screening tool for coastal management that provides information about which areas are more predisposed to experience compound flooding.
Constance Ting Chua, Adam D. Switzer, Anawat Suppasri, Linlin Li, Kwanchai Pakoksung, David Lallemant, Susanna F. Jenkins, Ingrid Charvet, Terence Chua, Amanda Cheong, and Nigel Winspear
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1887–1908,Short summary
Port industries are extremely vulnerable to coastal hazards such as tsunamis. Despite their pivotal role in local and global economies, there has been little attention paid to tsunami impacts on port industries. For the first time, tsunami damage data are being extensively collected for port structures and catalogued into a database. The study also provides fragility curves which describe the probability of damage exceedance for different port industries given different tsunami intensities.
Scott Curtis, Kelley DePolt, Jamie Kruse, Anuradha Mukherji, Jennifer Helgeson, Ausmita Ghosh, and Philip Van Wagoner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1759–1767,Short summary
Storm surge flooding can challenge rescue and recovery operations, especially over large estuaries and populated barrier islands. Understanding the relationship between storm and tidal characteristics and surge timing is important for proper resourcing prior to an event. Here we compare the concurrency of maximum observed surge and areal extent of effective hazard operations for hurricanes Matthew and Florence in eastern North Carolina, USA. Matthew was a more spatially compounded surge event.
Fei Ye, Wei Huang, Yinglong J. Zhang, Saeed Moghimi, Edward Myers, Shachak Pe'eri, and Hao-Cheng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1703–1719,Short summary
Compound flooding is caused by multiple mechanisms contributing to elevated water level simultaneously, which poses higher risks than conventional floods. This study uses a holistic approach to simulate the processes on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales that contributed to the compound flooding during Hurricane Florence in 2018. Sensitivity tests are used to isolate the contribution from each mechanism and identify the region experiencing compound effects, thus supporting management.
Rimali Mitra, Hajime Naruse, and Shigehiro Fujino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1667–1683,Short summary
A case study on the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami was conducted at the Phra Thong island, Thailand, using a deep neural network (DNN) inverse model. The model estimated tsunami characteristics from the deposits at Phra Thong island. The uncertainty quantification of the result was evaluated. The predicted flow conditions and the depositional characteristics were compared with the reported observed values. This DNN model can serve as an essential tool for tsunami hazard mitigation at coastal cities.
Nadezhda Kudryavtseva, Tarmo Soomere, and Rain Männikus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1279–1296,Short summary
We demonstrate a finding of a very sudden change in the nature of water level extremes in the Gulf of Riga which coincides with weakening of correlation with North Atlantic Oscillation. The shape of the distribution is variable with time; it abruptly changed for several years and was suddenly restored. If similar sudden changes happen in other places in the world, not taking into account the non-stationarity can lead to significant underestimation of future risks from extreme-water-level events.
Martin Franz, Michel Jaboyedoff, Ryan P. Mulligan, Yury Podladchikov, and W. Andy Take
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1229–1245,Short summary
A landslide-generated tsunami is a complex phenomenon that involves landslide dynamics, wave dynamics and their interaction. This phenomenon threatens numerous lives and infrastructures around the world. To assess this natural hazard, we developed an efficient numerical model able to simulate the landslide, the momentum transfer and the wave all at once. The good agreement between the numerical simulations and physical experiments validates our model and its novel momentum transfer approach.
Hira Ashfaq Lodhi, Shoaib Ahmed, and Haider Hasan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
The study summarizes the historical accounts, eyewitness accounts and newspaper items to report the impact of the 1945 tsunami along the Makran coast of Pakistan. A field survey conducted along Gwadar, Pasni and Ormara quantifies inundation parameters along the three cities, using the landmarks reported in eyewitness accounts and newspaper items. The quantization of runup and inundation extents is based either on the field survey or on old maps.
Dailé Avila-Alonso, Jan M. Baetens, Rolando Cardenas, and Bernard De Baets
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 837–859,Short summary
Hurricanes are extreme storms that induce substantial biophysical changes on oceans. We investigated the effects induced by consecutive Hurricanes Dorian and Humberto over the western Sargasso Sea in 2019 using satellite remote sensing and modelled data. These hurricanes superimposed effects on the upper-ocean response because of the strong induced mixing and upwelling. The sea surface cooling and phytoplankton bloom induced by these hurricanes were higher compared to climatological records.
Jorge Macías, Cipriano Escalante, and Manuel J. Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 775–789,Short summary
The validation of numerical models is a first unavoidable step before their use as predictive tools. This requirement is even more necessary when the developed models are going to be used for risk assessment in natural events where human lives are involved. The present work is the first step in this task for the Multilayer-HySEA model, a novel dispersive multilayer model of the HySEA suite developed at the University of Malaga, following the standards proposed by the NTHMP of the US.
Jorge Macías, Cipriano Escalante, and Manuel J. Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 791–805,Short summary
Numerical models need to be validated prior to their use as predictive tools. This requirement becomes even more necessary when these models are going to be used for risk assessment in natural hazards where human lives are involved. The present work aims to benchmark the novel Multilayer-HySEA model for landslide-generated tsunamis produced by granular slides, in order to provide to the tsunami community with a robust, efficient, and reliable tool for landslide tsunami hazard assessment.
Gonéri Le Cozannet, Déborah Idier, Marcello de Michele, Yoann Legendre, Manuel Moisan, Rodrigo Pedreros, Rémi Thiéblemont, Giorgio Spada, Daniel Raucoules, and Ywenn de la Torre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 703–722,Short summary
Chronic flooding occurring at high tides under calm weather conditions is an early impact of sea-level rise. This hazard is a reason for concern on tropical islands, where coastal infrastructure is commonly located in low-lying areas. We focus here on the Guadeloupe archipelago, in the French Antilles, where chronic flood events have been reported for about 10 years. We show that the number of such events will increase drastically over the 21st century under continued growth of CO2 emissions.
Mariam Khanam, Giulia Sofia, Marika Koukoula, Rehenuma Lazin, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos, Xinyi Shen, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 587–605,Short summary
Compound extremes correspond to events with multiple concurrent or consecutive drivers, leading to substantial impacts such as infrastructure failure. In many risk assessment and design applications, however, multihazard scenario events are ignored. In this paper, we present a general framework to investigate current and future climate compound-event flood impact on coastal critical infrastructures such as power grid substations.
Jingyan Lan, Juan Liu, and Xing Song
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 577–585,Short summary
In current marine seismic engineering research, the influence of overlying-seawater weight and soft soil on seabed ground motion is often ignored, which leads to unsafe seismic design. In this paper, four representative calculation models are constructed, and the finite-element method is used for numerical simulation analysis in order to evaluate the amplification effect of overlying seawater and the seafloor soft soil layer on ground motion.
Jacek Tylkowski, Marcin Winowski, Marcin Hojan, Paweł Czyryca, and Mariusz Samołyk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 363–374,Short summary
This paper describes the relationship between weather conditions, sea level changes and the rate of the receding seashore and the state of the orchid beech plant community (Baltic Sea coast, Wolin island, Poland). The orchid beech habitat (Cephalanthero rubrae–Fagetum type) on the Wolin island is the only such well known site in the world. It was found that for the functioning of the orchid beech habitat in the 21st century, climate changes are a relatively greater threat than seashore erosion.
Chuan Li, H. Tuba Özkan-Haller, Gabriel García-Medina, Robert A. Holman, Peter Ruggiero, Treena M. Jensen, David B. Elson, and William R. Schneider
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript under review for NHESSShort summary
In this work, we examine a set of observed extreme, non-earthquake/landslide related wave runup events. Runup events with similar characteristics have previously been attributed to trapped waves over shallow bathymetry and long waves created by atmospheric disturbances. However, we find that neither mechanisms were likely at work in the observations we examined. We show that instead, these runup events were more likely due to energetic growth of bound infragravity waves.
Olivier Orcel, Philippe Sergent, and François Ropert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 239–260,Short summary
Coastal structures subjected to the actions of waves must be redesigned due to rising sea levels. Their design requires an estimate of the long return period of wave height, wave period, storm surge and more specifically their joint exceedance probabilities. We confirm that the best results are obtained by first aggregating the most correlated variables: wave height and wave period. Nevertheless, the choice of method of aggregation is much less important than the choice of the copula.
Sebastian J. Pitman, Katie Thompson, Deirdre E. Hart, Kevin Moran, Shari L. Gallop, Robert W. Brander, and Adam Wooler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 115–128,Short summary
This study aimed to identify how well beach users could spot rip currents in real time at the beach. It was performed in response to the fact that rip currents are the leading cause of drownings on recreational beaches worldwide. We found that only one in five people were able to spot the rip current, meaning the vast majority would be unable to make good decisions about where it is safe to swim at the beach.
Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Sander Rikka, Victor Alari, Aarne Männik, Laura Tuomi, and Heidi Pettersson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3593–3609,Short summary
Wave observations have a fundamental uncertainty due to the randomness of the sea state. Such scatter is absent in model data, and we tried two methods to best account for this difference when combining measured and modelled wave heights. The results were used to estimate how rare a 2019 storm in the Bothnian Sea was. Both methods were found to have strengths and weaknesses, but our best estimate was that, in the current climate, such a storm might on average repeat about once a century.
Amine Ben Daoued, Yasser Hamdi, Nassima Mouhous-Voyneau, and Philippe Sergent
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3387–3398,Short summary
This paper deals with the evaluation of the risk associated with coastal flooding by combining the tide with extreme storm surges (SSs). In this work, methods for tide and SS combination were compared. Le Havre in France was used as a case study. Overall, the example has shown that the return level estimates using different combinations are quite different. It has also been suggested that the questions of coincidence and dependency are essential for a combined tide and SS hazard analysis.
Iskander Abroug, Nizar Abcha, Armelle Jarno, and François Marin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3279–3291,Short summary
Coastal regions are affected frequently by extreme waves resulting from storms, causing human fatalities and economic losses. Using a bispectral analysis based on the wavelet-based bicoherence tool, we present an experimental study of the propagation of large-amplitude focused wave groups in coastal regions. The results are consistent with the spectral broadening demonstrated in previous works using the classic Fourier analysis.
Imen Turki, Lisa Baulon, Nicolas Massei, Benoit Laignel, Stéphane Costa, Matthieu Fournier, and Olivier Maquaire
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3225–3243,Short summary
We examine the variability of storm surges along the English Channel coasts and their connection with the global atmospheric circulation at the interannual and interdecadal timescales using hybrid approaches combining wavelet techniques and probabilistic generalized extreme value models. Our hypothesis is that the physical mechanisms of the atmospheric circulation change according to the timescales and their connection with the local variability improve the prediction of the extreme surges.
Stéphane Abadie, Alexandre Paris, Riadh Ata, Sylvestre Le Roy, Gael Arnaud, Adrien Poupardin, Lucie Clous, Philippe Heinrich, Jeffrey Harris, Rodrigo Pedreros, and Yann Krien
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3019–3038,Short summary
The tsunami which could be generated by a potential flank collapse of the Cumbre Vieja volcano in La Palma, Canary Islands, is evaluated through a numerical simulation based on an advanced and finely calibrated model. Then the consequences of such an event for Europe, France and Guadeloupe island are investigated using different numerical models for propagation. The impacts vary from negligible to very significant depending on the location considered.
Katsuichiro Goda, Tomohiro Yasuda, Nobuhito Mori, Ario Muhammad, Raffaele De Risi, and Flavia De Luca
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3039–3056,Short summary
Nankai–Tonankai megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis pose significant risks to coastal communities in western and central Japan. This study presents an extensive tsunami hazard assessment for the Nankai–Tonankai Trough events, focusing on the southwestern Pacific region of Japan. The results from the stochastic tsunami simulations can inform regional and local tsunami risk reduction actions in light of inevitable uncertainty associated with such probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments.
Ryota Masaya, Anawat Suppasri, Kei Yamashita, Fumihiko Imamura, Chris Gouramanis, and Natt Leelawat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2823–2841,Short summary
This study examines the sediment transport during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami event on Phra Thong Island, Thailand. We use numerical simulations and sediment transportation models, and our modelling approach confirms that the beaches were significantly eroded predominantly during the first backwash phase. Although 2004 tsunami deposits are found on the island, we demonstrate that most of the sediment was deposited in the shallow coastal area, facilitating quick recovery of the beach.
Xianwu Shi, Pubing Yu, Zhixing Guo, Zhilin Sun, Fuyuan Chen, Xiuguang Wu, Wenlong Cheng, and Jian Zeng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2777–2790,Short summary
This study presents a method for the calculation of storm surge inundation simulation under different typhoon intensity scenarios. The parameters including typhoon track, radius of maximum wind speed, astronomical tide, and upstream runoff under different typhoon intensity scenarios were set. The inundation extents and depths corresponding to the storm surges under different typhoon intensity scenarios were simulated in combination with the numerical model.
Ina Teutsch, Ralf Weisse, Jens Moeller, and Oliver Krueger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2665–2680,Short summary
Rogue waves pose a threat to marine operations and structures. Typically, a wave is called a rogue wave when its height exceeds twice that of the surrounding waves. There is still discussion on the extent to which such waves are unusual. A new data set of about 329 million waves from the southern North Sea was analyzed. While data from wave buoys mostly corresponded to expectations from known distributions, radar measurements showed some deviations pointing towards higher rogue wave frequencies.
Svetlana Jevrejeva, Lucy Bricheno, Jennifer Brown, David Byrne, Michela De Dominicis, Andy Matthews, Stefanie Rynders, Hindumathi Palanisamy, and Judith Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2609–2626,Short summary
We explore the role of waves, storm surges and sea level rise for the Caribbean region with a focus on the eastern Caribbean islands. We simulate past extreme events, suggesting a storm surge might reach 1.5 m and coastal wave heights up to 12 m offshore and up to 5 m near the coast of St Vincent. We provide sea level projections of up to 2.2 m by 2100. Our work provides quantitative evidence for policy-makers, scientists and local communities to actively protect against climate change.
Havu Pellikka, Terhi K. Laurila, Hanna Boman, Anu Karjalainen, Jan-Victor Björkqvist, and Kimmo K. Kahma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2535–2546,Short summary
Meteotsunamis are long waves created by atmospheric disturbances travelling over the sea. These waves can be hazardous in rare cases. Their occurrence in the Baltic Sea has been poorly known, which is why we examine century-long sea level records from the Gulf of Finland to identify these waves. In total, 121 potential meteotsunamis were found. The strong connection between meteotsunami occurrence and lightning observations indicates that meteotsunamis in this region occur during thunderstorms.
Mateusz C. Strzelecki and Marek W. Jaskólski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2521–2534,Short summary
To date, the effects of tsunamis have been mainly reported from tropical and temperate climatic zones. Rare records of polar tsunamis may partly reflect the very low population densities, the short written history, and little coastal geological work focused on the sedimentary record of palaeotsunamis. We report the results of the field survey of post-tsunami damage in the Nuugaatsiaq settlement in Greenland, which on 17 June 2017 was hit by three tsunami waves triggered by a landslide.
Matteo U. Parodi, Alessio Giardino, Ap van Dongeren, Stuart G. Pearson, Jeremy D. Bricker, and Ad J. H. M. Reniers
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2397–2414,Short summary
We investigate sources of uncertainty in coastal flood risk assessment in São Tomé and Príncipe, a small island developing state. We find that, for the present-day scenario, uncertainty from depth damage functions and digital elevation models can be more significant than that related to the estimation of significant wave height or storm surge level. For future scenarios (year 2100), sea level rise prediction becomes the input with the strongest impact on coastal flood damage estimate.
Matjaž Ličer, Solène Estival, Catalina Reyes-Suarez, Davide Deponte, and Anja Fettich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2335–2349,Short summary
In 2018 windsurfer’s mast broke about 1 km offshore during a scirocco storm in the northern Adriatic. He was drifting in severe conditions until he eventually beached alive and well in Sistiana (Italy) 24 h later. We conducted an interview with the survivor to reconstruct his trajectory. We simulate his trajectory in several ways and estimate the optimal search-and-rescue area for a civil rescue response. Properly calibrated virtual drifter properties are key to reliable rescue area forecasting.
Adrien Poupardin, Eric Calais, Philippe Heinrich, Hélène Hébert, Mathieu Rodriguez, Sylvie Leroy, Hideo Aochi, and Roby Douilly
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2055–2065,Short summary
The Mw 7 Haiti earthquake in 2010 was accompanied by local tsunamis that caused fatalities and damage to coastal infrastructure. Earthquakes alone could not explain all observations in Hispaniola Island. We suspected that a big submarine landslide occured and generated the 3 m high waves observed near Jacmel and Pedernales. We identify a landslide scar 30 km from the epicenter and at a depth of 3500 m and we simulate the corresponding tsunami which gives results very close to observations.
Iris Grabemann, Lidia Gaslikova, Tabea Brodhagen, and Elisabeth Rudolph
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1985–2000,Short summary
Storm tides threaten the low-lying regions of the North Sea protected by dikes. Extreme storm tides with very low probabilities of occurrence could be important for coastal risk management due to their potential high impact. We searched an extensive data set of simulations and identified extreme storm tides higher than those observed since 1900. We investigated how two of the events evolved in the near-shore areas of the Ems estuary and their potential for physically plausible amplification.
Angel Amores, Marta Marcos, Diego S. Carrió, and Lluís Gómez-Pujol
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1955–1968,Short summary
Storm Gloria hit the Mediterranean Spanish coastlines between 20 and 23 January 2020, causing severe damages such as flooding of the Ebro River delta. We evaluate its coastal impacts with a numerical simulation of the wind waves and the accumulated ocean water along the coastline (storm surge). The storm surge that reached values up to 1 m was mainly driven by the wind that also generated wind waves up to 8 m in height. We also determine the extent of the Ebro Delta flooded by marine water.
Marc Andreevsky, Yasser Hamdi, Samuel Griolet, Pietro Bernardara, and Roberto Frau
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1705–1717,Short summary
A methodology to perform a regional frequency analysis centred on a target site is proposed. The spatial extremogram technique is used to form a physically and statistically homogeneous region around the site of interest. This is of fundamental importance to conducting a more proper regional analysis. A regional frequency estimation of extreme skew storm surges on the French coasts is carried out.
Francesco De Leo, Sebastián Solari, and Giovanni Besio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1233–1246,
Ning Xu, Shuai Yuan, Xueqin Liu, Yuxian Ma, Wenqi Shi, and Dayong Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1107–1121,Short summary
Sea ice disasters seriously threaten the safety of oil platforms in the Bohai Sea. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out risk assessments of sea ice disasters on oil platforms in the Bohai Sea. The analysis results showed that efficient sea ice prevention strategies could largely mitigate the sea-ice-induced vibration-related risks to jacket platforms. The sea ice risk assessment method can be applied in the design, operation, and management of other engineering structures.
Wahyu Widiyanto, Shih-Chun Hsiao, Wei-Bo Chen, Purwanto B. Santoso, Rudy T. Imananta, and Wei-Cheng Lian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 933–946,Short summary
This article reports the results of a field survey carried out in the disaster area of the December 2018 Sunda Strait tsunami, Indonesia. It provides data covering run-up heights, inundations, tsunami directions, and sediment characteristics. The data can be used for the validation of hydrodynamic models, and they contribute to a better understanding of the Sunda Strait tsunami caused by the Anak Krakatau volcano. In addition, they are important for spatial planning and mitigation efforts.
Bache, A. D.: New York Bay and Harbor, New York, Coast Chart No. 20, United States Coastal Survey, Washington, D.C., 1882.
Bien, J. R. and Vermeule, C. C.: The Narrows to Jamaica Bay-Coney Island, north to Brooklyn, Atlas of the Metropolitan Area and Adjacent Country, Julius Bien & Co, New York, NY, 1891a.
Bien, J. R. and Vermeule, C. C.: Jamaica Bay, Atlas of the Metropolitan District and adjacent country, Julius Bien & Co, New York, NY, 1891b.
Black, F. R.: Jamaica Bay: A History (Cultural Resource Management Study No. 3), United States Department of the Interior, National Parks Service, Washington, D.C., 1981.
Blumberg, A., Georgas, N., Yin, L., Herrington, T., and Orton, P.: Street scale modeling of storm surge inundation along the New Jersey Hudson River waterfront, J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 32, 1486–1497, https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-14-00213.1, 2015.
Blumberg, A. F., Khan, L. A., and St John, J.: Three-dimensional hydrodynamic model of New York Harbor region, J. Hydraul. Eng., 125, 799–816, 1999.
Brandon, C. M., Woodruff, J. D., Orton, P. M., and Donnelly, J. P.: Evidence for Elevated Coastal Vulnerability Following Large-Scale Historical Oyster Bed Harvesting, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 41, 1136–1143, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.3931, 2016.
Briggs, M., Kopp, P., Silver, A., and Wiggins, W.: Probabilistic model for predicting deep-draught channel design: Savannah, GA entrance channel, Ocean Eng., 108, 276–286, 2015.
Chant, R. J., Fugate, D., and Garvey, E.: The shaping of an estuarine superfund site: Roles of evolving dynamics and geomorphology, Estuar. Coasts, 34, 90–105, 2011.
Chernetsky, A. S., Schuttelaars, H. M., and Talke, S. A.: The effect of tidal asymmetry and temporal settling lag on sediment trapping in tidal estuaries, Ocean Dynam., 60, 1219–1241, 2010.
Church, J. A. and White, N. J.: Sea-level rise from the late 19th to the early 21st century, Surv. Geophys., 32, 585–602, 2011.
de Jonge, V. N., Schuttelaars, H. M., van Beusekom, J. E., Talke, S. A., and de Swart, H. E.: The influence of channel deepening on estuarine turbidity levels and dynamics, as exemplified by the Ems estuary, Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci., 139, 46–59, 2014.
Dorr, F. W.: Part of Far Rockaway, Long Island (U.S. Coast Survey T-Sheet 798), US Coast Survey, Washington, D.C., 1860.
Edinger, G. J., Evans, D. J., Gebauer, S., Howard, T. G., Hunt, D. M., and Olivero, A. M.: Ecological Communities of New York State: Second Edition, A Revised and Expanded Edition of Carol Reschke's Ecological Communities of New York State, NYS Department of Environmental Conservation, Albany, NY, 2014.
ESRI: How Topo to Raster works – Help | ArcGIS for Desktop, available at: http://pro.arcgis.com/en/pro-app/tool-reference/3d-analyst/how-topo-to-raster-works.htm, last access: 29 June 2016.
Fagherazzi, S., Carniello, L., D'Alpaos, L., and Defina, A.: Critical bifurcation of shallow microtidal landforms in tidal flats and salt marshes, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 103, 8337–8341, 2006.
Familkhalili, R. and Talke, S. A.: The effect of channel deepening on tides and storm surge: A case study of Wilmington, NC, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 9138–9147, 2016.
Fischbach, J., Knopman, D., Smith, H., Orton, P., Sanderson, E., Fisher, K., Moray, N., Friedberg, A., and Parris, A.: Building Resilience in a Coastal Environment: Integrated, Science-Based Planning in Jamaica Bay, RAND Corporation, New York, 118 pp., 2018.
Flood, R.: High-Resolution bathymetric and backscatter mapping in Jamaica Bay, Final Report to the National Park Service, State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, NY, 2011.
Georgas, N. and Blumberg, A. F.: Establishing Confidence in Marine Forecast Systems: The Design and Skill Assessment of the New York Harbor Observation and Prediction System, Version 3 (NYHOPS v3), in: Eleventh International Conference in Estuarine and Coastal Modeling (ECM11), Seattle, Washington, USA, 660–685, 2010.
Georgas, N., Blumberg, A., and Herrington, T.: An operational coastal wave forecasting model for New Jersey and Long Island waters, Shore Beach, 75, 30–35, 2007.
Gilbert, S. A.: Coney Island and Dead Horse Inlet (U.S. Coast Survey T-Sheet 586), US Coast Survey, Washington, D.C., 1855.
Gilbert, S. A.: Gowanus Bay and Vicinity, Long Island (U.S. Coast Survey T-Sheet 597), US Coast Survey, Washington, D.C., 1856a.
Gilbert, S. A.: Gowanus Bay and Vicinity, Long Island (U.S. Coast Survey T-Sheet 598), US Coast Survey, Washington, D.C., 1856b.
Gilbert, S. A. and Sullivan, J. A.: Gowanus Bay and Vicinity, Long Island (U.S. Coast Survey T-Sheet 599), US Coast Survey, Washington, D.C., 1857.
Grossinger, R. M.: Documenting local landsape change: the Bay Area Historical Ecology Project, in: The Historical Ecology Handbook: A Restorationist's Guide to Reference Ecosystems, edited by: Egan, D. and Howell, E. A., Island Press, Washington, D.C., 2001.
Haigh, I. D. and Nicholls, R. J.: Coastal Flooding, MCCIP Sci. Rev., 2017, 98–104, https://doi.org/10.14465/2017.arc10.009-cof, 2017.
Hall, T. and Yonekura, E.: North American tropical cyclone landfall and SST: A statistical model study, J. Climate, 26, 8422–8439, 2013.
Hay, C. C., Morrow, E., Kopp, R. E., and Mitrovica, J. X.: Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise, Nature, 517, 481–484, 2015.
Helaire, L. T., Talke, S. A., Jay, D. A., and Mahedy, D.: Historical changes in lower Columbia River and Estuary floods: a numerical study, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 124, 7926–7946, 2020.
Hess, L. and Harris, W. H.: Effect of storm energy and shoreline engineering on the sediment budget of a barrier beach, Rockaway, New York, Northeast. Geol., 9, 110–115, 1987.
Homer, C. G., Dewitz, J. A., Yang, L., Jin, S., Danielson, P., Xian, G., Coulston, J., Herold, N. D., Wickham, J., and Megown, K.: Completion of the 2011 National Land Cover Database for the conterminous United States – Representing a decade of land cover change information, Photogram. Eng. Remote Send., 81, 345–354, 2015.
Hu, K., Chen, Q., Wang, H., Hartig, E. K., and Orton, P. M.: Numerical modeling of salt marsh morphological change induced by Hurricane Sandy, Coast. Eng., 132, 63–81, 2018.
Jaffe, B. E., Smith, R. E., and Torresan, L. Z.: Sedimentation and bathymetric change in San Pablo Bay, 1856–1983, Open-File Report 98-759, US Geological Survey, Reston, VA, https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr98759, 1998.
Jamaica Bay Improvement Commission: Report of the Jamaica Bay Improvement Commission, Martin B. Brown Press, New York, 157 pp., 1907.
Jenkins, T. A.: Map of the Interior of Long Island from Brooklyn to Jaimaica, New York (U.S. Coast Survey T-Sheet 36), US Coast Survey, Washington, D.C., 1837a.
Jenkins, T. A.: Map of the Interior of Long Island from Brooklyn to Jaimaica, New York (U.S. Coast Survey T-Sheet 37), US Coast Survey, Washington, D.C., 1837b.
Jordi, A., Georgas, N., Blumberg, A., Yin, L., Chen, Z., Wang, Y., Schulte, J., Ramaswamy, V., Runnels, D., and Saleh, F.: A next generation coastal ocean operational system: probabilistic flood forecasting at street scale, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 100, 41–54, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0309.1, 2018.
Kemp, A. C. and Horton, B. P.: Contribution of relative sea-level rise to historical hurricane flooding in New York City, J. Quaternary Sci., 28, 537–541, 2013.
Kemp, A. C., Hill, T. D., Vane, C. H., Cahill, N., Orton, P. M., Talke, S. A., Parnell, A. C., Sanborn, K., and Hartig, E. K.: Relative sea-level trends in New York City during the past 1500 years, Holocene, 27, 1169–1186, https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683616683263, 2017.
Kennedy, A. B., Gravois, U., Zachry, B. C., Westerink, J. J., Hope, M. E., Dietrich, J. C., Powell, M. D., Cox, A. T., Luettich, R. A., and Dean, R. G.: Origin of the Hurricane Ike forerunner surge, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, 8, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047090, 2011.
Lin, N., Emanuel, K., Oppenheimer, M., and Vanmarcke, E.: Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 462–467, 2012.
Lin, N., Kopp, R. E., Horton, B. P., and Donnelly, J. P.: Hurricane Sandy's flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113, 12071–12075, 2016.
MacMahan, J., van de Kreeke, J., Reniers, A., Elgar, S., Raubenheimer, B., Thornton, E., Weltmer, M., Rynne, P., and Brown, J.: Fortnightly tides and subtidal motions in a choked inlet, Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci., 150, 325–331, 2014.
Marcos, M., Calafat, F. M., Berihuete, Á., and Dangendorf, S.: Long-term variations in global sea level extremes, J. Geophys. Res., 120, 8115–8134, 2015.
Marsooli, R. and Lin, N.: Numerical modeling of historical storm tides and waves and their interactions along the US east and Gulf Coasts, J. Geophys. Res., 123, 3844–3874, 2018.
Marsooli, R., Orton, P. M., Fitzpatrick, J., and Smith, H.: Residence time of a highly urbanized estuary: Jamaica Bay, New York, J. Mar. Sci. Eng., 6, 44, https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6020044, 2018.
Mattocks, C. and Forbes, C.: A real-time, event-triggered storm surge forecasting system for the state of North Carolina, Ocean Model., 25, 95–119, 2008.
Maynard, W.: Western Part of Jamaica Bay Including Canarsie Landing (U.S. Coast Survey H01358), US Coast Survey, Washington, D.C., 1877.
Moore, W. I.: Jamaica Bay Eastern Part (U.S. Coast Survey H01392), US Coast Survey, Washington, D.C., 1878.
Murray, N. J., Clemens, R. S., Phinn, S. R., Possingham, H. P., and Fuller, R. A.: Tracking the rapid loss of tidal wetlands in the Yellow Sea, Front. Ecol. Environ., 12, 267–272, 2014.
NYC-DEP: Jamaica Bay Watershed Protection Plan, in: Volume 1, New York City Department of Environmental Protection (DEP), New York, NY, USA, 128 pp., 2007.
NYC-DEP: Jamaica Bay Watershed Protection Plan Update 2018, Bureau of Environmental Planning and Analysis, New York City Department of Environmental Protection, New York, NY, USA, 60 pp., 2018.
Orth, R. J., Carruthers, T. J., Dennison, W. C., Duarte, C. M., Fourqurean, J. W., Heck, K. L., Hughes, A. R., Kendrick, G. A., Kenworthy, W. J., and Olyarnik, S.: A global crisis for seagrass ecosystems, AIBS Bull., 56, 987–996, 2006.
Orton, P., Georgas, N., Blumberg, A., and Pullen, J.: Detailed modeling of recent severe storm tides in estuaries of the New York City region, J. Geophys. Res., 117, C09030, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JC008220, 2012.
Orton, P. M., Talke, S. A., Jay, D. A., Yin, L., Blumberg, A. F., Georgas, N., Zhao, H., Roberts, H. J., and MacManus, K.: Channel Shallowing as Mitigation of Coastal Flooding, J. Mar. Sci. Eng., 3, 654–673, https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse3030654, 2015.
Orton, P., MacManus, K., Sanderson, E., Mills, J., Giampieri, M., Fisher, K., Yetman, G., Doxsey-Whitfield, E., Wu, Z., Yin, L., Georgas, N., and Blumberg, A.: Project Final Technical Report: Quantifying the Value and Communicating the Protective Services of Nature-Based Flood Mitigation using Flood Risk Assessment, available at: http://adaptmap.info/jamaicabay/technical_report.pdf (last access: 1 August 2016), 2016a.
Orton, P. M., Hall, T. M., Talke, S., Blumberg, A. F., Georgas, N., and Vinogradov, S.: A Validated Tropical-Extratropical Flood Hazard Assessment for New York Harbor, J. Geophys. Res., 121, 12, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JC011679, 2016b.
Orton, P., MacManus, K., Sanderson, E., Mills, J., Giampieri, M., Fisher, K., Yetman, G., Doxsey-Whitfield, E., Wu, Z., Yin, L., Georgas, N., and Blumberg, A: AdaptMap: Flood, Sea Level Rise and Adaptation Viewer for Jamaica Bay, NYC, available at: http://AdaptMap.info/jamaicabay (last access: 1 September 2020), 2016c.
Orton, P., Lin, N., Gornitz, V., Colle, B., Booth, J., Feng, K., Buchanan, M., and Oppenheimer, M.: New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 4: Coastal Flooding, Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci., 1439, 95–114, https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14011, 2019.
Paalvast, P. and van der Velde, G.: Long term anthropogenic changes and ecosystem service consequences in the northern part of the complex Rhine-Meuse estuarine system, Ocean Coast. Manage., 92, 50–64, 2014.
Pawlowicz, R., Beardsley, B., and Lentz, S.: Classical tidal harmonic analysis including error estimates in MATLAB using T_TIDE, Comput. Geosci., 28, 929–937, 2002.
Peteet, D. M., Nichols, J., Kenna, T., Chang, C., Browne, J., Reza, M., Kovari, S., Liberman, L., and Stern-Protz, S.: Sediment starvation destroys New York City marshes' resistance to sea level rise, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 115, 10281–10286, 2018.
Picado, A., Dias, J. M., and Fortunato, A. B.: Tidal changes in estuarine systems induced by local geomorphologic modifications, Cont. Shelf Res., 30, 1854–1864, 2010.
Powell, J. W.: USGS Brooklyn NY Quadrangle, US Geological Survey, Washington, D.C., 1891.
Ralston, D. K., Talke, S., Geyer, W. R., Al'Zubadaei, H., and Sommerfield, C. K.: Bigger tides, less flooding: Effects of dredging on barotropic dynamics in a highly modified estuary, J. Geophys. Res., 124, 196–211, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JC014313, 2019.
Sanderson, E. W.: Mannahatta: A Natural History of New York City, Abrams, New York, NY, 2009.
Sanderson, E. W.: Cartographic Evidence for Historical Geomorphological Change and Wetland Formation in Jamaica Bay, New York, Northeast. Nat., 23, 277–304, 2016.
Sanford, L. P., Boicourt, W. C., and Rives, S. R.: Model for estimating tidal flushing of small embayments, J. Waterw. Port C., 118, 635–654, 1992.
Schoukens, H.: Proactive Habitat Restoration and the Avoidance of Adverse Effects on Protected Areas: Development Project Review in Europe After Orleans, J. Int. Wildlife Law Policy, 20, 125–154, 2017.
Seavitt, C., Alexander, K., Alessi, D., and Sands, E.: Shifting Sands: Sedimentary Cycles for Jamaica Bay, New York, in Structures of Coastal Resilience, Phase 1: Context, Site and Vulnerability Analysis, Self-published, New York, NY, USA, 215 pp., 2015.
Shaffer, G. P., Day Jr., J. W., Mack, S., Kemp, G. P., van Heerden, I., Poirrier, M. A., Westphal, K. A., FitzGerald, D., Milanes, A., and Morris, C. A.: The MRGO Navigation Project: a massive human-induced environmental, economic, and storm disaster, J. Coast. Res., 54, 206–224, 2009.
Stigebrandt, A.: Some aspects of tidal interaction with fjord constrictions, Estuar. Coast. Mar. Sci., 11, 151–166, 1980.
Swanson, L., Dorsch, M., Giampieri, M., Orton, P., Parris, A., and Sanderson, E. W.: Chapter 4: Dynamics of the biophysical systems of Jamaica Bay, in: Prospects for Resilience: Insights from New York City's Jamaica Bay, edited by: Sanderson, E. W., Solecki., W. D., Waldman, J. R., and Parris, A. S., Island Press, Washington, D.C., 2016.
Swanson, R., West-Valle, A., and Decker, C.: Recreation vs. waste disposal: The use and management of Jamaica Bay, Long Isl. Hist. J., 5, 21–41, 1992.
Swanson, R. L. and Wilson, R. E.: Increased tidal ranges coinciding with Jamaica Bay development contribute to marsh flooding, J. Coast. Res., 24.6, 1565–1569, 2008.
Szpilka, C., Dresback, K., Kolar, R., Feyen, J., and Wang, J.: Improvements for the Western North Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico ADCIRC Tidal Database (EC2015), J. Mar. Sci. Eng., 4, 1–55, 2016.
Talke, S., Orton, P., and Jay, D.: Increasing storm tides at New York City, 1844–2013, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 3149–3155, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059574, 2014.
Talke, S., Kemp, A., and Woodruff, J.: Relative Sea Level, Tides, and Extreme Water Levels in Boston Harbor From 1825 to 2018, J. Geophys. Res., 6, 3895–3914, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JC013645, 2018.
Talke, S. A. and Jay, D. A.: Nineteenth century North American and Pacific tidal data: Lost or just forgotten?, J. Coast. Res., 29, 118–127, 2013.
Talke, S. A. and Jay, D. A.: Archival water-level measurements: Recovering historical data to help design for the future, CWTS Report 2017-02, USACE Climate Preparedness and Resilience, Portland, OR, 45 pp., 2017.
Talke, S. A. and Jay, D. A.: Changing tides: The role of natural and anthropogenic factors, Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 12, 121–151, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-010419-010727, 2020.
USACE: Hudson-Raritan Estuary Comprehensive Restoration Plan, Volume 1, 155 pp., 2009.
USACE: Final Integrated General Reevaluation Report II and supplemental Environmental Impact Statement. Jacksonville Harbor, Duval County, Florida. United States Army Corps of Engineers, Jacksonville District, Appendix A, Attachment J, Jacksonville, FL, 1623–1646, 2014.
USACE: Atlantic Coast of New York, East Rockaway Inlet to Rockaway Inlet and Jamaica Bay: Draft Integrated Hurricane Sandy General Reevaluation Report and Environmental Impact Statement, United States Army Corps of Engineers, New York District, New York, NY, 270 pp., 2016.
USGS: Water Data for the Nation, United States Geological Survey, available at: http://waterdata.usgs.gov, last access: 1 January 2020.
Vaudrey, J. M., Kremer, J. N., Branco, B. F., and Short, F. T.: Eelgrass recovery after nutrient enrichment reversal, Aquat. Bot., 93, 237–243, 2010.
Wahl, T. and Chambers, D. P.: Climate controls multidecadal variability in US extreme sea level records, J. Geophys. Res., 121, 1274–1290, 2016.
Walsh, B., Costanzo, S., and Taillie, D.: Natural Resource Condition Assessment, Gateway National Recreation Area, Natural Resource Report NPS/GATE/NRR–2018/1774, Department of the Interior, National Parks Service, Fort Collins, CO, 170 pp., 2018.
Wang, H., Chen, Q., Hu, K., Snedden, G. A., Hartig, E. K., Couvillion, B. R., Johnson, C. L., and Orton, P. M.: Numerical modeling of the effects of Hurricane Sandy and potential future hurricanes on spatial patterns of salt marsh morphology in Jamaica Bay, US Geological Survey, Open File Report 2017-1016, New York, NY, USA, 43 pp., ISSN: 2331-1258, 2017.
Warner, J. C., Geyer, W. R., and Lerczak, J. A.: Numerical modeling of an estuary: A comprehensive skill assessment, J. Geophys. Res., 110, C05001, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004jc002691, 2005.
Wilson, H. M.: Hempstead NY Quadrangle, US Geological Survey, Washington, D.C., 1897.
The geometry of estuaries is often altered through dredging to make room for ships and with extensive landfill over wetlands to enable development. Here, we use historical maps to help create computational models of seawater flow around and into a lagoonal bay of New York City for the 1880s and 2010s. Our results show that these past man-made changes cause higher coastal storm tides and that they result specifically from deeper depths, expanded inlet width, and landfill.
The geometry of estuaries is often altered through dredging to make room for ships and with...