Articles | Volume 19, issue 4
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 889–906, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-889-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 889–906, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-889-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article 18 Apr 2019
Research article | 18 Apr 2019
Evaluating earthquake-induced rockfall hazard near the Dead Sea Transform
Mor Kanari et al.
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Bar Elisha, Perach Nuriel, Andrew Kylander-Clark, and Ram Weinberger
Geochronology, 3, 337–349, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-3-337-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-3-337-2021, 2021
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Distinguishing between different dolomitization processes is challenging yet critical for resolving some of the issues and ambiguities related to the formation of dolomitic rocks. Accurate U–Pb absolute dating of dolomite by LA-ICP-MS could contribute to a better understanding of the dolomitization process by placing syngenetic, early diagenetic, and/or epigenetic events in the proper geological context.
Galina Faershtein, Naomi Porat, and Ari Matmon
Geochronology, 2, 101–118, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-2-101-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-2-101-2020, 2020
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Optically stimulated luminescence dates the last exposure of quartz and feldspar minerals to sunlight. We investigated its sub-methods (TT-OSL, VSL, and pIRIR) to date middle and early Pleistocene sediments. Inspection of natural signals of samples can reveal saturated samples that produce only minimum ages. Using these sub-methods, minimum ages of up to the early Pleistocene can be obtained for eastern Mediterranean aeolian sediments of Nilotic origin.
Matty Sharon, Amir Sagy, Ittai Kurzon, Shmuel Marco, and Marcelo Rosensaft
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 125–148, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-125-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-125-2020, 2020
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We present a methodology for mapping faults that constitute far-field (ground motion) and near-field (surface rupture) hazards to structures, particularly for critical facilities. For categorising faults, the criteria are adjusted to local tectonic characteristics, combining data of geological maps, instrumental seismicity, geodesy and past earthquakes. Our results adhere to international standards of hazard assessment for nuclear power plants and improve the regional tectonic understanding.
Sandra Melzner, Nurit Shtober-Zisu, Oded Katz, and Lea Wittenberg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2879–2885, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2879-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2879-2019, 2019
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In the eastern Alps, no work on post-wildfire rockfall activity and risk has been published so far. The present work describes a wildfire that occurred in August 2018 in a famous world heritage site in Austria. Indicators of fire severity and rockfall occurrence during and after the fire are described. Future research needs are defined in order to raise awareness about the implementation of a new research focus in the Alpine region.
L. Franzi, M. Arattano, M. Arai, and O. Katz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2013–2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2013-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2013-2013, 2013
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Development of a seismic site-response zonation map for the Netherlands
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Urban search and rescue (USAR) simulation system: spatial strategies for agent task allocation under uncertain conditions
Ground motion prediction maps using seismic microzonation data and machine learning
Modelling earthquake rates and associated uncertainties in the Marmara Region, Turkey
Vulnerability and site effects in earthquake disasters in Armenia (Colombia) – Part 2 : Observed damage and vulnerability
Integrating macroseismic intensity distributions with a probabilistic approach: an application in Italy
Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of b values revealed by a data-driven approach for the 17 June 2019 MS 6.0 Changning earthquake sequence, Sichuan, China
A harmonised instrumental earthquake catalogue for Iceland and the northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge
A homogeneous earthquake catalogue for Turkey
Long-term magnetic anomalies and their possible relationship to the latest greater Chilean earthquakes in the context of the seismo-electromagnetic theory
Reliability-based strength modification factor for seismic design spectra considering structural degradation
Fault network reconstruction using agglomerative clustering: applications to southern Californian seismicity
Style of faulting of expected earthquakes in Italy as an input for seismic hazard modeling
The utility of earth science information in post-earthquake land-use decision-making: the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence in Aotearoa New Zealand
Spatiotemporal changes of seismicity rate during earthquakes
Deep learning of the aftershock hysteresis effect based on the elastic dislocation theory
Measuring the seismic risk along the Nazca–South American subduction front: Shannon entropy and mutability
Macrozonation of seismic transient and permanent ground deformation of Iran
Spatial database and website for reservoir-triggered seismicity in Brazil
Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for Tuzla test site using Monte Carlo simulations
Seismic hazard maps of Peshawar District for various return periods
Contrasting seismic risk for Santiago, Chile, from near-field and distant earthquake sources
The spatial–temporal total friction coefficient of the fault viewed from the perspective of seismo-electromagnetic theory
Non-stationary extreme value analysis applied to seismic fragility assessment for nuclear safety analysis
Real-time probabilistic seismic hazard assessment based on seismicity anomaly
The impact of topography on seismic amplification during the 2005 Kashmir earthquake
Assessment of seismic sources and capable faults through hierarchic tectonic criteria: implications for seismic hazard in the Levant
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Infrasound and seismoacoustic signatures of the 28 September 2018 Sulawesi super-shear earthquake
Estimation of near-surface attenuation in the tectonically complex contact area of the northwestern External Dinarides and the Adriatic foreland
Difficulties in explaining complex issues with maps: evaluating seismic hazard communication – the Swiss case
Geologic and geomorphic controls on rockfall hazard: how well do past rockfalls predict future distributions?
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A review and upgrade of the lithospheric dynamics in context of the seismo-electromagnetic theory
Revised earthquake sources along Manila trench for tsunami hazard assessment in the South China Sea
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Damage induced by the 25 April 2015 Nepal earthquake in the Tibetan border region of China and increased post-seismic hazards
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Margarida Ramalho, Luis Matias, Marta Neres, Michele M. C. Carafa, Alexandra Carvalho, and Paula Teves-Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 117–138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-117-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-117-2022, 2022
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Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is the most common tool used to decide on the acceptable seismic risk by society and mitigation measures. In slowly deforming regions, such Iberia, the earthquake generation models (EGMs) for PSHA suffer from great uncertainty. In this work we propose two sanity tests to be applied to EGMs, comparing the EGM moment release with constrains derived from GNSS observations or neotectonic modelling. Similar tests should be part of other region studies.
Janneke van Ginkel, Elmer Ruigrok, Jan Stafleu, and Rien Herber
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 41–63, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-41-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-41-2022, 2022
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A soft, shallow subsurface composition has the tendency to amplify earthquake waves, resulting in increased ground shaking. Therefore, this paper presents a workflow in order to obtain a map classifying the response of the subsurface based on local geology, earthquake signals, and background noise recordings for the Netherlands. The resulting map can be used as a first assessment in regions with earthquake hazard potential by mining or geothermal energy activities, for example.
Enrico Baglione, Stefano Lorito, Alessio Piatanesi, Fabrizio Romano, Roberto Basili, Beatriz Brizuela, Roberto Tonini, Manuela Volpe, Hafize Basak Bayraktar, and Alessandro Amato
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3713–3730, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3713-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3713-2021, 2021
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We investigated the seismic fault structure and the rupture characteristics of the MW 6.6, 2 May 2020, Cretan Passage earthquake through tsunami data inverse modelling. Our results suggest a shallow crustal event with a reverse mechanism within the accretionary wedge rather than on the Hellenic Arc subduction interface. The study identifies two possible ruptures: a steeply sloping reverse splay fault and a back-thrust rupture dipping south, with a more prominent dip angle.
Navid Hooshangi, Ali Asghar Alesheikh, Mahdi Panahi, and Saro Lee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3449–3463, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3449-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3449-2021, 2021
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Task allocation under uncertain conditions is a key problem for agents attempting to achieve harmony in disaster environments. This paper presents an agent-based simulation to investigate task allocation considering appropriate spatial strategies to manage uncertainty in urban search and rescue (USAR) operations.
Federico Mori, Amerigo Mendicelli, Gaetano Falcone, Gianluca Acunzo, Rose Line Spacagna, Giuseppe Naso, and Massimiliano Moscatelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-282, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-282, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This work addresses the problem of the ground motion estimation over large area as an important tool for the seismic risk reduction policies. In detail, the near real time estimation of ground motion is a key issue for the emergency system management. Starting from this consideration, the present work proposes the application of a machine learning approach to produce ground motion maps, using 9 input proxies. Such proxies consider seismological, geophysical and morphological parameters.
Thomas Chartier, Oona Scotti, Hélène Lyon-Caen, Keith Richard-Dinger, James H. Dieterich, and Bruce E. Shaw
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2733–2751, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2733-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2733-2021, 2021
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In order to evaluate the seismic risk, we first model the annual rate of occurrence of earthquakes on the faults near Istanbul. By using a novel modelling approach, we consider the fault system as a whole rather than each fault individually. We explore the hypotheses that are discussed in the scientific community concerning this fault system and compare the modelled results with local recorded data and a physics-based model, gaining new insights in particular on the largest possible earthquake.
Francisco J. Chávez-García, Hugo Monsalve-Jaramillo, and Joaquín Vila-Ortega
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2345–2354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2345-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2345-2021, 2021
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We analyze earthquake damage observed in Armenia, Colombia, during the 1999 event. We investigate the reasons behind the damage and the possibility of predicting it using vulnerability studies. We show that vulnerability was a major factor and that observed damage was predicted by a vulnerability study made in 1993, which sadly had no societal impact. The comparison between two vulnerability studies, in 1993 and 2004, suggests that Armenia may still be highly vulnerable to future earthquakes.
Andrea Antonucci, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, and Dario Albarello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2299–2311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2299-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2299-2021, 2021
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We present a probabilistic approach for integrating incomplete intensity distributions by means of the Bayesian combination of estimates provided by intensity prediction equations (IPEs) and data documented at nearby localities, accounting for the relevant uncertainties. The performance of the proposed methodology is tested at 28 Italian localities with long and rich seismic histories and for the strong 1980 and 2009 earthquakes in Italy. An application of this approach is also illustrated.
Changsheng Jiang, Libo Han, Feng Long, Guijuan Lai, Fengling Yin, Jinmeng Bi, and Zhengya Si
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2233–2244, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2233-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2233-2021, 2021
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The b value is a controversial parameter that has the potential to identify the location of an upcoming strong earthquake. We conducted a case study using a newly developed algorithm that can overcome the subjectivity of calculation. The results confirmed the scientific significance of the b value for seismic hazard analysis and revealed that fluid intrusion may have been the cause of the overactive aftershocks of the studied earthquake.
Kristján Jónasson, Bjarni Bessason, Ásdís Helgadóttir, Páll Einarsson, Gunnar B. Guðmundsson, Bryndís Brandsdóttir, Kristín S. Vogfjörd, and Kristín Jónsdóttir
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2197–2214, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2197-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2197-2021, 2021
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Local information on epicentres and Mw magnitudes from international catalogues have been combined to compile a catalogue of earthquakes in and near Iceland in the years 1900–2019. The magnitudes are either moment-tensor modelled or proxy values obtained with regression on Ms or exceptionally on mb. The catalogue also covers the northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge with less accurate locations but similarly harmonised magnitudes.
Onur Tan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2059–2073, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2059-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2059-2021, 2021
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Turkey is one of the most seismically active regions. In this study, an extended and homogenized earthquake catalogue, which is essential for seismic hazard studies, is presented in an easily manageable format for a wide range of researchers in earth sciences. It is the most comprehensive catalogue for Turkey and contains approximately ~ 378 000 events between 1900 and 2018.
Enrique Guillermo Cordaro, Patricio Venegas-Aravena, and David Laroze
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1785–1806, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1785-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1785-2021, 2021
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We developed a methodology that generates free externally disturbed magnetic variations in ground magnetometers close to the Chilean convergent margin. Spectral analysis (~ mHz) and magnetic anomalies increased prior to large Chilean earthquakes (Maule 2010, Mw 8.8; Iquique 2014, Mw 8.2; Illapel 2015, Mw 8.3). These findings relate to microcracks within the lithosphere due to stress state changes. This physical evidence should be thought of as a last stage of the earthquake preparation process.
Ali Rodríguez-Castellanos, Sonia E. Ruiz, Edén Bojórquez, Miguel A. Orellana, and Alfredo Reyes-Salazar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1445–1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1445-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1445-2021, 2021
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Seismic design guidelines for building structures present simplified approaches to include relevant structural behavior that affects the structural response through design spectra modification factors. The objective of this study is to propose simplified mathematical expressions to modify the design spectra to consider the stiffness and strength-degrading behavior of structures. Additionally, these expressions are proposed to be included in the next version of the Mexico City Building Code.
Yavor Kamer, Guy Ouillon, and Didier Sornette
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3611–3625, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3611-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3611-2020, 2020
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Earthquakes cluster in space highlighting fault structures in the crust. We introduce a method to identify such patterns. The method follows a bottom-up approach that starts from many small clusters and, by repeated mergings, produces a larger, less complex structure. We test the resulting fault network model by investigating its ability to forecast the location of earthquakes that were not used in the study. We envision that our method can contribute to future studies relying on fault patterns.
Silvia Pondrelli, Francesco Visini, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, Bruno Pace, and Carlo Meletti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3577–3592, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3577-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3577-2020, 2020
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We used 100 years of seismicity in Italy to predict the hypothetical tectonic style of future earthquakes, with the purpose of using this information in a new seismic hazard model. To squeeze all possible information out of the available data, we created a chain of criteria to be applied in the input and output selection processes. The result is a list of cases from very clear ones, e.g., extensional tectonics in the central Apennines, to completely random tectonics for future seismic events.
Mark C. Quigley, Wendy Saunders, Chris Massey, Russ Van Dissen, Pilar Villamor, Helen Jack, and Nicola Litchfield
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3361–3385, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3361-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3361-2020, 2020
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This paper examines the roles of earth science information (data, knowledge, advice) in land-use decision-making in Christchurch, New Zealand, in response to the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence. A detailed timeline of scientific activities and information provisions relative to key decision-making events is provided. We highlight the importance and challenges of the effective provision of science to decision makers in times of crisis.
Chieh-Hung Chen, Yang-Yi Sun, Strong Wen, Peng Han, Li-Ching Lin, Huaizhong Yu, Xuemin Zhang, Yongxin Gao, Chi-Chia Tang, Cheng-Horng Lin, and Jann-Yenq Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3333–3341, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3333-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3333-2020, 2020
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Scientists demystify stress changes before mainshocks and utilize the foreshocks as an indicator. We investigate changes in seismicity far from mainshocks by using tens of thousands of M ≥ 2 quakes for 10 years in Taiwan and Japan. The results show that wide areas exhibit increased seismicity occurring more than several times in areas of the fault rupture. The stressed crust triggers resonance at frequencies varying from ~ 5 × 10–4 to ~ 10–3 Hz that is supported by the resonant frequency model.
Jin Chen, Hong Tang, and Wenkai Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3117–3134, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3117-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3117-2020, 2020
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The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of aftershocks around the fault are analyzed according to the stress changes after the main earthquake. The model can be used to predict the multi-timescale anisotropy distribution of aftershocks fairly. The finite fault model of the main earthquake is used in the construction of the prediction model. The model is a deep neural network; the inputs are the stress components of each point; and the output is the probability of an aftershock.
Eugenio E. Vogel, Felipe G. Brevis, Denisse Pastén, Víctor Muñoz, Rodrigo A. Miranda, and Abraham C.-L. Chian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2943–2960, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2943-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2943-2020, 2020
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The Nazca–South American subduction front is one of the most active in the world. We have chosen four zones along this front to do a comparative study on possible different dynamics. Data are public and well tested in the last decades. The methods are original since mutability and Shannon entropy are not always used in this kind of problem, and, to our knowledge, this is the first time they are combined. The north of Chile could be a zone with greater chances of a large earthquake.
Saeideh Farahani, Behrouz Behnam, and Ahmad Tahershamsi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2889–2903, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2889-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2889-2020, 2020
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Iran is located on the Alpide earthquake belt, in the active collision zone between the Eurasian and Arabian plates. Due to the rapid demands for new lifelines, a risk assessment should be performed to reduce the probable damage in advance. In this study, a precise GIS-based map is proposed by employing the HAZUS methodology.
Eveline Sayão, George Sand França, Maristela Holanda, and Alexandro Gonçalves
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2001–2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2001-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2001-2020, 2020
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One of the biggest challenges in studying reservoir-triggered seismicity (RTS) is to identify factors that can trigger seismicity. A spatial database and a web viewer were created, gathering the data pertinent to the RTS study. Results were obtained in processing these data; for example, the occurrence of RTS increases with the height of the dam, the minimum limiting volume value is 1 × 10−4 km3 for occurrence of RTS, and for geology no correlations were found, among other results.
Hafize Basak Bayraktar and Ceren Ozer Sozdinler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1741–1764, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1741-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1741-2020, 2020
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In this study, probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis was performed for the Tuzla region in case of a Prince Island fault rupture, which is the closest fault zone to the megacity Istanbul, and it has been silent for centuries. A synthetic earthquake catalog is generated using Monte Carlo simulations, and these events are used for tsunami analysis. The results of the study show that the probability of exceedance of 0.3 m tsunami wave height is bigger than 90 % for the next 50 and 100 years.
Khalid Mahmood, Naveed Ahmad, Usman Khan, and Qaiser Iqbal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1639–1661, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1639-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1639-2020, 2020
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The paper presents probabilistic-based seismic hazard maps prepared for Peshawar for various return periods using classical PSHA. The study considered both shallow and deep earthquakes, represented by area sources, while using recent ground motion prediction equations. The hazard map for a 475-year return period was compared with the hazard map given in the Building Code of Pakistan; they were found to be in close agreement. The obtained maps may be used for infrastructure risk assessment.
Ekbal Hussain, John R. Elliott, Vitor Silva, Mabé Vilar-Vega, and Deborah Kane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1533–1555, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1533-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1533-2020, 2020
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Many of the rapidly expanding cities around the world are located near active tectonic faults that have not produced an earthquake in recent memory. But these faults are generally small, and so most previous seismic-hazard analysis has focussed on large, more distant faults. In this paper we show that a moderate-size earthquake on a fault close to the city of Santiago in Chile has a greater impact on the city than a great earthquake on the tectonic boundary in the ocean, about a 100 km away.
Patricio Venegas-Aravena, Enrique G. Cordaro, and David Laroze
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1485–1496, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1485-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1485-2020, 2020
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Over the past few years, a number of data have emerged on predicting large earthquakes using the magnetic field. These measurements are becoming strongly supported by rock electrification mechanisms experimentally and theoretically in seismo-electromagnetic theory. However, the processes that occur within the faults have yet to be elucidated. That is why this work theoretically links the friction changes of the faults with the lithospheric magnetic anomalies that surround the faults.
Jeremy Rohmer, Pierre Gehl, Marine Marcilhac-Fradin, Yves Guigueno, Nadia Rahni, and Julien Clément
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1267–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1267-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1267-2020, 2020
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Fragility curves (FCs) are key tools for seismic probabilistic safety assessments that are performed at the level of the nuclear power plant (NPP). These statistical methods relate the probabilistic seismic hazard loading at the given site to the required performance of the NPP safety functions. In the present study, we investigate how the tools of
non-stationary extreme value analysis can be used to model in a flexible manner the FCs for NPP.
Yu-Sheng Sun, Hsien-Chi Li, Ling-Yun Chang, Zheng-Kai Ye, and Chien-Chih Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 743–753, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-743-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-743-2020, 2020
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Real-time probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) was developed in consideration of its practicability for daily life and the rate of seismic activity with time. We selected the 2016 Meinong (ML 6.6) and the 2018 Hualien (ML 6.2) earthquakes in Taiwan as examples. The seismic intensity forecasting maps produced by the real-time PSHA facilitated the forecast of the maximum expected seismic intensity for the following 90 d. Compared with real data the maps showed considerable effectiveness.
Saad Khan, Mark van der Meijde, Harald van der Werff, and Muhammad Shafique
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 399–411, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-399-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-399-2020, 2020
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On 8 October 2005 the region of Kashmir was struck by a devastating earthquake of magnitude 7.6. Northern Pakistan and the region of Kashmir were severely damaged. The official death toll according to the Pakistani government was 87 350. It was thought that the terrain could have played a crucial role in the damage caused by the earthquake directly or indirectly. In this article we found that the terrain played a crucial role in intensifying the devastation of the earthquake.
Matty Sharon, Amir Sagy, Ittai Kurzon, Shmuel Marco, and Marcelo Rosensaft
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 125–148, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-125-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-125-2020, 2020
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We present a methodology for mapping faults that constitute far-field (ground motion) and near-field (surface rupture) hazards to structures, particularly for critical facilities. For categorising faults, the criteria are adjusted to local tectonic characteristics, combining data of geological maps, instrumental seismicity, geodesy and past earthquakes. Our results adhere to international standards of hazard assessment for nuclear power plants and improve the regional tectonic understanding.
Jing Cui, Xuhui Shen, Jingfa Zhang, Weiyu Ma, and Wei Chu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2841–2854, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2841-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2841-2019, 2019
Christoph Pilger, Peter Gaebler, Lars Ceranna, Alexis Le Pichon, Julien Vergoz, Anna Perttu, Dorianne Tailpied, and Benoit Taisne
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2811–2825, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2811-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2811-2019, 2019
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This paper provides infrasound data analysis, modeling, and interpretation of the source characteristics of the 28 September 2018 magnitude 7.5 Sulawesi earthquake. Epicentral ground movement by the earthquake rupture as well as the secondary shaking of nearby mountainous topography is responsible for the strong infrasound generated. Findings allow one to improve knowledge of infrasonic and seismoacoustic source processes and the monitoring capabilities of the infrasound arrays used.
Snježana Markušić, Davor Stanko, Tvrtko Korbar, and Ivica Sović
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2701–2714, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2701-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2701-2019, 2019
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Based on κ values, estimated from local earthquakes recorded by seismological stations situated in the western part of Croatia, regional near-surface attenuation is defined. It shows that attenuation properties of rocks in the northwestern External Dinarides are far from isotropic. The most likely anisotropy sources are the preferential orientations of cracks and fractures under the local tectonic stress field, trapping of waves along major faults, and/or attenuation within the fault zones.
Michèle Marti, Michael Stauffacher, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2677–2700, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2677-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2677-2019, 2019
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Maps are an established way to illustrate natural hazards and regularly used to communicate with non-experts. However, there is evidence that they are frequently misconceived. Using a real case, our study shows that applying or disregarding best practices in visualization, editing, and presentation significantly impacts the comprehensibility of seismic hazard information. We suggest scrutinizing current natural-hazard communication strategies and empirically testing new products.
Josh Borella, Mark Quigley, Zoe Krauss, Krystina Lincoln, Januka Attanayake, Laura Stamp, Henry Lanman, Stephanie Levine, Sam Hampton, and Darren Gravley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2249–2280, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2249-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2249-2019, 2019
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Here we evaluate geologic, geomorphic, and anthropogenic controls on rockfall hazard and highlight the complexity of interpreting future rockfall hazard based on former boulder distributions. To evaluate how past rockfall deposits relate to contemporary rockfall hazard, we mapped then compared the locations, physical characteristics, and lithologies of rockfall boulders deposited during the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence (n = 185) with their prehistoric counterparts (n = 1093).
Panjamani Anbazhagan, Ketan Bajaj, Karanpreet Matharu, Sayed S. R. Moustafa, and Nassir S. N. Al-Arifi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2097–2115, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2097-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2097-2019, 2019
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In the present study, mapping of probability of exceedance of peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration for the Patna district is presented considering both classical and zoneless approaches through the logic tree framework to capture the epistemic uncertainty.
Patricio Venegas-Aravena, Enrique G. Cordaro, and David Laroze
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1639–1651, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1639-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1639-2019, 2019
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Several authors have shown evidence of electromagnetic measurements prior to earthquakes. However, these investigations lack a physical mechanism to support them. That is why we developed a theory that could explain many of these phenomena. Specifically, we demonstrate that the generation of microcracks in the lithosphere due to stress changes can explain and describe these electromagnetic phenomena.
Qiang Qiu, Linlin Li, Ya-Ju Hsu, Yu Wang, Chung-Han Chan, and Adam D. Switzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1565–1583, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1565-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1565-2019, 2019
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The accuracy of tsunami hazard assessments is highly dependent on the reliability of earthquake source models. In this study, we combine the most updated geological and geophysical data of the Manila subduction zone to propose a series of possible rupture scenarios. These rupture models facilitate an improved understanding of the potential tsunami hazard in the South China Sea. The results highlight the grave consequences faced by the SCS, one of the world's most densely populated coastlines.
Roberto Gentile, Carmine Galasso, Yunita Idris, Ibnu Rusydy, and Ella Meilianda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1365–1386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1365-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1365-2019, 2019
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This paper introduces the INSPIRE index, which quantifies the relative seismic risk of reinforced concrete buildings. A rapid visual survey form is proposed, which allows us to (1) calculate the INSPIRE index, (2) calculate a tsunami risk index, and (3) define archetype buildings to be analysed in more detail. The effectiveness of such tools is demonstrated with an application to 85 school buildings in Indonesia, also providing detailed numerical simulations for an archetype building.
Peijian Shi, Mei Li, Yang Li, Jie Liu, Haixia Shi, Tao Xie, and Chong Yue
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1119–1127, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1119-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1119-2019, 2019
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A statistical method is tentatively utilized to study distribution properties of aftershocks of the Wenchuan sequence in the view of energy release. The results show that the events in the Wenchuan sequence are not independent but have mutual attraction, their spatio–temporal distribution tends to be nonrandom but definite and deterministic, and imply it is possible for energy release to be predicted, although we cannot accurately predict the occurrence time and locations of the imminent event.
Zhonghai Wu, Patrick J. Barosh, Guanghao Ha, Xin Yao, Yongqiang Xu, and Jie Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 873–888, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-873-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-873-2019, 2019
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The main damage characteristics have been reported in Nepal caused by the 2015 Nepal earthquake but not in China. Our investigations suggested that damage caused by the earthquake in Tibet varies with intensity, amount of rock weakened by previous movement, steepness of slope, and lithology. The damage shows directional features mainly developed in the N-trending rifts in southern Tibet. The earthquake-induced landslides and collapses generally occurred where previous ones had taken place.
Ying Zhang and Qingyan Meng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 535–549, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-535-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-535-2019, 2019
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There is a long history of researching earthquake prediction, but weaknesses in traditional approaches to seismic hazards have become more and more evident. Remote sensing was used with earth observation technology, which is a new method that can instantly acquire a large area of abnormal information caused by earthquakes. In this paper, a popular method was tested in Sichuan but it did not perform well in earthquake predictions of this area. The causes have also been studied.
Jianfei Wang, Jingfa Zhang, Lixia Gong, Qiang Li, and Dan Zhou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3253–3266, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3253-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3253-2018, 2018
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This paper focused on the indirect economic losses caused by the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 and evaluated the progress of restoration and reconstruction based on nighttime light images. Results show that the GDP has a quadratic function relationship with the total nighttime lights under normal conditions, and the economy of the disaster area after the earthquake showed unstable and turbulent development. This research provides a basis for macro-control of earthquake recovery and reconstruction.
Avith Mendoza-Ponce, Angel Figueroa-Soto, Diana Soria-Caballero, and Víctor Hugo Garduño-Monroy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3121–3135, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3121-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3121-2018, 2018
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This research carries out an investigation of the dynamics of the Pátzcuaro–Acambay fault system in central Mexico. We use a fractal analysis of slip rates and magnitudes Mw, estimated from fault length to define faults that are susceptible of generating earthquakes. We found that 316 faults are active and moreover the existence of three zones with different deformation processes. The implications of this new micro-regionalization are very important in order to reduce seismic hazard.
Alicia Rivas-Medina, Belen Benito, and Jorge Miguel Gaspar-Escribano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2809–2823, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2809-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2809-2018, 2018
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We present an approach for seismic hazard assessment that considers a hybrid source model composed of faults and zones containing the remaining seismicity. The seismic-moment rate is used to distribute seismic potential, avoiding double counting. The approach is applied in SE Spain, a region of low-to-moderate seismicity. Results show a concentration of expected accelerations around fault traces using the hybrid approach, which is not appreciated in the classic approach using zones exclusively.
Daniel Weijie Loi, Mavinakere Eshwaraiah Raghunandan, and Varghese Swamy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2387–2408, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2387-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2387-2018, 2018
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This work presents deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard assessments for Peninsular Malaysia by considering far-field (> 400 km) Sumatran and local intraplate earthquake sources (2004–2016 from 19 stations). Our results predict the central-western peninsula experiencing higher ground motions due to events from Sumatran sources. Our predicted acceleration values are well within the allowable design limits as per the Annex drafted in 2016 by the Department of Standards Malaysia.
Sergey Tyagunov, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Cristina Muñoz Jimenez, Stefano Parolai, and Kevin Fleming
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2345–2354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2345-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2345-2018, 2018
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A methodological framework for the multi-hazard (earthquake and flood) failure analysis of fluvial dikes due to liquefaction is presented. Failure probability of the earthen structures is presented in the form of a fragility surface as a function of both seismic and hydraulic load. It is emphasized that the potential interactions between the two hazards should not be ignored in risk analyses and decision-making.
Jeen-Hwa Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1969–1983, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1969-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1969-2018, 2018
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Numerical simulations are made for exploring rictional and viscous effects on earthquake recurrence based on a one-body spring-slider model with thermal-pressurized slip-weakening friction and viscosity. Included also is the effect due to wear process of faults, which can change long-term behavior of earthquakes.
Wei Wang, Hong Chen, Aihui Xu, and Minhao Qu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1771–1783, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1771-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1771-2018, 2018
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This paper provides a detailed introduction to the disaster situation of the 8 August 2017, Ms 7.0 earthquake that occurred in Jiuzhaigou County, Sichuan Province, China, and specifically describes the emergency response activities of all levels of the government, various departments, rescue teams, enterprises and public institutions as well as social organizations. The characteristics of the earthquake disaster and the emergency responses are analysed and summarized.
Stephanie Lackner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1665–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1665-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1665-2018, 2018
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This study constructs a comprehensive dataset of global strong ground motion data to define new concepts of earthquake location and strong shaking area. These concepts can help to facilitate a more effective communication of the natural hazard of earthquakes that is focused on surface shaking. Past earthquake shaking is analyzed to support a transition of the discussion of earthquakes from seismology to a geography context and thus foster improved social science research on earthquake impacts.
Xiao-Wei Tang, Xu Bai, Ji-Lei Hu, and Jiang-Nan Qiu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1451–1468, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1451-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1451-2018, 2018
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Short summary
We study rockfall hazard to a town in an earthquake-prone area, where large trailer-truck-sized boulders are scattered downslope above the town. Mapping boulder locations and sizes (in the field and in past aerial photos) and calculating their predicted trajectories downslope using computer simulation yielded a hazard map for rockfall impact. Hazard is reduced where slope angle is below 10°. Dating rockfalls coincides with past earthquakes and predicts probability for future rockfall.
We study rockfall hazard to a town in an earthquake-prone area, where large trailer-truck-sized...
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