Articles | Volume 19, issue 8
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1737–1753, 2019

Special issue: Flood risk assessment and management

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1737–1753, 2019

Research article 13 Aug 2019

Research article | 13 Aug 2019

Uncertainty quantification of flood mitigation predictions and implications for interventions

Koen D. Berends et al.

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Cited articles

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Beven, K. J., Aspinall, W. P., Bates, P. D., Borgomeo, E., Goda, K., Hall, J. W., Page, T., Phillips, J. C., Simpson, M., Smith, P. J., Wagener, T., and Watson, M.: Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 2: What should constitute good practice?, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2769–2783,, 2018. a
Short summary
River flooding is a major safety concern. Sophisticated models are used to design ways to decrease flood risk, but until recently it was not feasible to calculate how uncertain these model predictions are. Using a new approach, we have now quantified the uncertainty of 12 interventions along the River Waal. Results show significant but not problematically high uncertainty. We demonstrate that the choice between interventions can be different when uncertainty is taken into account.
Final-revised paper