Articles | Volume 18, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-935-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-935-2018
Research article
 | 
23 Mar 2018
Research article |  | 23 Mar 2018

Modeling anthropogenic and natural fire ignitions in an inner-alpine valley

Giorgio Vacchiano, Cristiano Foderi, Roberta Berretti, Enrico Marchi, and Renzo Motta

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Cited articles

Amatulli, G., Rodrigues, M. J., Trombetti, M., and Lovreglio, R.: Assessing long-term fire risk at local scale by means of decision tree technique, J. Geophys. Res., 111, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JG000133, 2006. 
Arndt, N., Vacik, H., Koch, V., Arpaci, A., and Gossow, H.: Modeling human-caused forest fire ignition for assessing forest fire danger in Austria, iForest, 6, 315–325, https://doi.org/10.3832/ifor0936-006, 2013. 
Bar Massada, A., Syphard, A. D., Stewart, S. I., and Radeloff, V. C.: Wildfire ignition-distribution modelling: a comparative study in the Huron–Manistee National Forest, Michigan, USA, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 22, 174–183, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF11178, 2013. 
Bebi, P., Seidl, R., Motta, R., Fuhr, M., Firm, D., Krumm, F., Conedera, M., Ginzler, C., Wohlgemuth, T., and Kulakowski, D.: Changes of forest cover and disturbance regimes in the mountain forests of the Alps, Forest Ecol. Manag., 388, 43–56, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2016.10.028, 2017. 
Beniston, M.: Mountain weather and climate: a general overview and a focus on climatic change in the Alps, Hydrobiologia, 562, 3–16, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10750-005-1802-0, 2006. 
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Short summary
Here we show that wildland fires in an Italian alpine region are ignited mainly by human negligence. 30 % of fires stars in agricultural areas, 24 % in forests. Lightning plays a role in 10 % of the cases, but its importance has been increasing recently. Areas under hot, dry climate are more prone to fire. Cattle grazing reduces the fuel for winter fires, but increases ignition risk in summer. The maps of fire risk that we produce can help to support fire prevention and ecosystem management.
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