Articles | Volume 14, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-557-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-557-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 Mar 2014
Research article |
| 12 Mar 2014
Assessment methodology for the prediction of landslide dam hazard
S. F. Dal Sasso
Consortium of Italian Universities for Hydrology (CINID), Potenza, Italy
A. Sole
Engineering School, University of Basilicata, Potenza, Italy
S. Pascale
Engineering School, University of Basilicata, Potenza, Italy
F. Sdao
Engineering School, University of Basilicata, Potenza, Italy
A. Bateman Pinzòn
Sediment Transport Research Group (GITS), Technical University of Catalonia (UPC), Barcelona, Spain
V. Medina
Sediment Transport Research Group (GITS), Technical University of Catalonia (UPC), Barcelona, Spain
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Robert Ljubičić, Dariia Strelnikova, Matthew T. Perks, Anette Eltner, Salvador Peña-Haro, Alonso Pizarro, Silvano Fortunato Dal Sasso, Ulf Scherling, Pietro Vuono, and Salvatore Manfreda
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5105–5132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5105-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5105-2021, 2021
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The rise of new technologies such as drones (unmanned aerial systems – UASs) has allowed widespread use of image velocimetry techniques in place of more traditional, usually slower, methods during hydrometric campaigns. In order to minimize the velocity estimation errors, one must stabilise the acquired videos. In this research, we compare the performance of different UAS video stabilisation tools and provide guidelines for their use in videos with different flight and ground conditions.
Alonso Pizarro, Silvano F. Dal Sasso, Matthew T. Perks, and Salvatore Manfreda
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5173–5185, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5173-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5173-2020, 2020
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An innovative approach is presented to optimise image-velocimetry performances for surface flow velocity estimates (and thus remotely sensed river discharges). Synthetic images were generated under different tracer characteristics using a numerical approach. Based on the results, the Seeding Distribution Index was introduced as a descriptor of the optimal portion of the video to analyse. A field case study was considered as a proof of concept of the proposed framework showing error reductions.
Matthew T. Perks, Silvano Fortunato Dal Sasso, Alexandre Hauet, Elizabeth Jamieson, Jérôme Le Coz, Sophie Pearce, Salvador Peña-Haro, Alonso Pizarro, Dariia Strelnikova, Flavia Tauro, James Bomhof, Salvatore Grimaldi, Alain Goulet, Borbála Hortobágyi, Magali Jodeau, Sabine Käfer, Robert Ljubičić, Ian Maddock, Peter Mayr, Gernot Paulus, Lionel Pénard, Leigh Sinclair, and Salvatore Manfreda
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1545–1559, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1545-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1545-2020, 2020
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We present datasets acquired from seven countries across Europe and North America consisting of image sequences. These have been subjected to a range of pre-processing methods in preparation for image velocimetry analysis. These datasets and accompanying reference data are a resource that may be used for conducting benchmarking experiments, assessing algorithm performances, and focusing future software development.
Robert Ljubičić, Dariia Strelnikova, Matthew T. Perks, Anette Eltner, Salvador Peña-Haro, Alonso Pizarro, Silvano Fortunato Dal Sasso, Ulf Scherling, Pietro Vuono, and Salvatore Manfreda
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5105–5132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5105-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5105-2021, 2021
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The rise of new technologies such as drones (unmanned aerial systems – UASs) has allowed widespread use of image velocimetry techniques in place of more traditional, usually slower, methods during hydrometric campaigns. In order to minimize the velocity estimation errors, one must stabilise the acquired videos. In this research, we compare the performance of different UAS video stabilisation tools and provide guidelines for their use in videos with different flight and ground conditions.
Alonso Pizarro, Silvano F. Dal Sasso, Matthew T. Perks, and Salvatore Manfreda
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5173–5185, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5173-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5173-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
An innovative approach is presented to optimise image-velocimetry performances for surface flow velocity estimates (and thus remotely sensed river discharges). Synthetic images were generated under different tracer characteristics using a numerical approach. Based on the results, the Seeding Distribution Index was introduced as a descriptor of the optimal portion of the video to analyse. A field case study was considered as a proof of concept of the proposed framework showing error reductions.
Matthew T. Perks, Silvano Fortunato Dal Sasso, Alexandre Hauet, Elizabeth Jamieson, Jérôme Le Coz, Sophie Pearce, Salvador Peña-Haro, Alonso Pizarro, Dariia Strelnikova, Flavia Tauro, James Bomhof, Salvatore Grimaldi, Alain Goulet, Borbála Hortobágyi, Magali Jodeau, Sabine Käfer, Robert Ljubičić, Ian Maddock, Peter Mayr, Gernot Paulus, Lionel Pénard, Leigh Sinclair, and Salvatore Manfreda
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1545–1559, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1545-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1545-2020, 2020
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We present datasets acquired from seven countries across Europe and North America consisting of image sequences. These have been subjected to a range of pre-processing methods in preparation for image velocimetry analysis. These datasets and accompanying reference data are a resource that may be used for conducting benchmarking experiments, assessing algorithm performances, and focusing future software development.
R. Albano, A. Sole, and J. Adamowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1645–1658, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1645-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1645-2015, 2015
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In this paper, we propose an experimental system called "READY: Risk, Extreme Events, Adaptation, Defend Yourself". It enables us to provide support to the general public and other safety stakeholders (for example, voluntary associations and civil protection organizations) in the prevention, mitigation and preparedness phase of a flood or landslide risk event. READY offers tremendous value owing to its ability to integrate information coming from several sources, all into one visual framework.
R. Albano, A. Sole, J. Adamowski, and L. Mancusi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2847–2865, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2847-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2847-2014, 2014
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In this paper, the authors proposed a GIS (geographic information system) model in order to provide a direct and indirect estimation of flood consequences on the basis of the operability of the strategic emergency structures in an urban area, their accessibility, and connection within the urban system of a city (i.e. connection between aid centres and buildings at risk) in the emergency phase.
M. N. Papa, V. Medina, F. Ciervo, and A. Bateman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4095–4107, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4095-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4095-2013, 2013
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Joshua N. Jones, Georgina L. Bennett, Claudia Abancó, Mark A. M. Matera, and Fibor J. Tan
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Shalev Siman-Tov and Francesco Marra
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Debris flows represent a threat to infrastructure and the population. In arid areas, they are observed when heavy rainfall hits steep slopes with sediments. Here, we use digital surface models and radar rainfall data to detect and characterize the triggering and non-triggering rainfall conditions. We find that rainfall intensity alone is insufficient to explain the triggering. We suggest that antecedent rainfall could represent a critical factor for debris flow triggering in arid regions.
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A sensitivity analysis on the building impact force resulting from the representative built environment parameters is executed through the FLOW-3D model. The surrounding buildings' properties, especially the azimuthal angle, have been confirmed to play significant roles in determining the peak impact forces. The single and combined effects of built environments are analyzed in detail. This will improve understanding of vulnerability assessment and migration design against debris flow hazards.
Jean-Claude Maki Mateso, Charles L. Bielders, Elise Monsieurs, Arthur Depicker, Benoît Smets, Théophile Tambala, Luc Bagalwa Mateso, and Olivier Dewitte
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 643–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-643-2023, 2023
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This research highlights the importance of human activities on the occurrence of landslides and the need to consider this context when studying hillslope instability patterns in regions under anthropogenic pressure. Also, this study highlights the importance of considering the timing of landslides and hence the added value of using historical information for compiling an inventory.
Jakob Rom, Florian Haas, Tobias Heckmann, Moritz Altmann, Fabian Fleischer, Camillo Ressl, Sarah Betz-Nutz, and Michael Becht
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 601–622, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-601-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-601-2023, 2023
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In this study, an area-wide slope-type debris flow record has been established for Horlachtal, Austria, since 1947 based on historical and recent remote sensing data. Spatial and temporal analyses show variations in debris flow activity in space and time in a high-alpine region. The results can contribute to a better understanding of past slope-type debris flow dynamics in the context of extreme precipitation events and their possible future development.
Tom Birien and Francis Gauthier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 343–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-343-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-343-2023, 2023
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On highly fractured rockwalls such as those found in northern Gaspésie, most rockfalls are triggered by weather conditions. This study highlights that in winter, rockfall frequency is 12 times higher during a superficial thaw than during a cold period in which temperature remains below 0 °C. In summer, rockfall frequency is 22 times higher during a heavy rainfall event than during a mainly dry period. This knowledge could be used to implement a risk management strategy.
Maxime Morel, Guillaume Piton, Damien Kuss, Guillaume Evin, and Caroline Le Bouteiller
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1494, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1494, 2023
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In mountain catchments, damage during floods are generally primarily driven by the supply of massive amount of sediment. Predicting how much sediment can be delivered by frequent and infrequent events is thus important in hazard studies. This paper use data gathered during the maintenance operation of about one hundred debris retention basins to build simple equations aiming at predicting sediment supply from simple parameters describing the upstream catchment.
Nunziarita Palazzolo, David J. Peres, Enrico Creaco, and Antonino Cancelliere
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 279–291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-279-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-279-2023, 2023
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We propose an approach exploiting PCA to derive hydrometeorological landslide-triggering thresholds using multi-layered soil moisture data from ERA5-Land reanalysis. Comparison of thresholds based on single- and multi-layered soil moisture information provides a means to identify the significance of multi-layered data for landslide triggering in a region. In Sicily, the proposed approach yields thresholds with a higher performance than traditional precipitation-based ones (TSS = 0.71 vs. 0.50).
Raphael Knevels, Helene Petschko, Herwig Proske, Philip Leopold, Aditya N. Mishra, Douglas Maraun, and Alexander Brenning
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 205–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-205-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-205-2023, 2023
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In summer 2009 and 2014, rainfall events occurred in the Styrian Basin (Austria), triggering thousands of landslides. Landslide storylines help to show potential future changes under changing environmental conditions. The often neglected uncertainty quantification was the aim of this study. We found uncertainty arising from the landslide model to be of the same order as climate scenario uncertainty. Understanding the dimensions of uncertainty is crucial for allowing informed decision-making.
Francis K. Rengers, Luke A. McGuire, Katherine R. Barnhart, Ann M. Youberg, Daniel Cadol, Alexander N. Gorr, Olivia Hoch, Rebecca Beers, and Jason W. Kean
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1398, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1398, 2022
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Debris flows often occur after wildfires. These debris flows move water, sediment, and wood. The wood can get stuck in channels and create piles of sediment within channels. We investigated how the channel and wood size/shape influence how much sediment is stored. We also used a series of equations to estimate how the wood size/shape would reflect the velocity needed to break the wood. These data will help improve models and insight from future field investigations.
Fabian Walter, Elias Hodel, Erik S. Mannerfelt, Kristen Cook, Michael Dietze, Livia Estermann, Michaela Wenner, Daniel Farinotti, Martin Fengler, Lukas Hammerschmidt, Flavia Hänsli, Jacob Hirschberg, Brian McArdell, and Peter Molnar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4011–4018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4011-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4011-2022, 2022
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Debris flows are dangerous sediment–water mixtures in steep terrain. Their formation takes place in poorly accessible terrain where instrumentation cannot be installed. Here we propose to monitor such source terrain with an autonomous drone for mapping sediments which were left behind by debris flows or may contribute to future events. Short flight intervals elucidate changes of such sediments, providing important information for landscape evolution and the likelihood of future debris flows.
Marc Peruzzetto, Yoann Legendre, Aude Nachbaur, Thomas J. B. Dewez, Yannick Thiery, Clara Levy, and Benoit Vittecoq
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3973–3992, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3973-2022, 2022
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Volcanic edifices result from successive construction and dismantling phases. Thus, the geological units forming volcanoes display complex geometries. We show that such geometries can be reconstructed thanks to aerial views, topographic surveys and photogrammetric models. In our case study of the Samperre cliff (Martinique, Lesser Antilles), it allows us to link destabilizations from a rocky cliff to the existence of a filled paleo-valley and estimate a potentially unstable volume.
Abdellah Khouz, Jorge Trindade, Sérgio C. Oliveira, Fatima El Bchari, Blaid Bougadir, Ricardo A. C. Garcia, and Mourad Jadoud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3793–3814, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3793-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3793-2022, 2022
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The aim of this study was to assess the landslide susceptibility of the rocky coast of Essaouira using the information value model. The resulting susceptibility maps could be used for both environmental protection and general planning of future development activities.
Kamal Rana, Nishant Malik, and Ugur Ozturk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3751–3764, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3751-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3751-2022, 2022
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The landslide hazard models assist in mitigating losses due to landslides. However, these models depend on landslide databases, which often have missing triggering information, rendering these databases unusable for landslide hazard models. In this work, we developed a Python library, Landsifier, consisting of three different methods to identify the triggers of landslides. These methods can classify landslide triggers with high accuracy using only a landslide polygon shapefile as an input.
Axel A. J. Deijns, Olivier Dewitte, Wim Thiery, Nicolas d'Oreye, Jean-Philippe Malet, and François Kervyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3679–3700, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3679-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3679-2022, 2022
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Landslides and flash floods are rainfall-induced processes that often co-occur and interact, generally very quickly. In mountainous cloud-covered environments, determining when these processes occur remains challenging. We propose a regional methodology using open-access satellite radar images that allow for the timing of landslide and flash floods events, in the contrasting landscapes of tropical Africa, with an accuracy of up to a few days. The methodology shows potential for transferability.
Judith Uwihirwe, Alessia Riveros, Hellen Wanjala, Jaap Schellekens, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Markus Hrachowitz, and Thom A. Bogaard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3641–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3641-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3641-2022, 2022
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This study compared gauge-based and satellite-based precipitation products. Similarly, satellite- and hydrological model-derived soil moisture was compared to in situ soil moisture and used in landslide hazard assessment and warning. The results reveal the cumulative 3 d rainfall from the NASA-GPM to be the most effective landslide trigger. The modelled antecedent soil moisture in the root zone was the most informative hydrological variable for landslide hazard assessment and warning in Rwanda.
Hans-Balder Havenith, Kelly Guerrier, Romy Schlögel, Anika Braun, Sophia Ulysse, Anne-Sophie Mreyen, Karl-Henry Victor, Newdeskarl Saint-Fleur, Léna Cauchie, Dominique Boisson, and Claude Prépetit
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3361–3384, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3361-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3361-2022, 2022
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We present a new landslide inventory for the 2021, M 7.2, Haiti, earthquake. We compare characteristics of this inventory with those of the 2010 seismically induced landslides, highlighting the much larger total area of 2021 landslides. This fact could be related to the larger earthquake magnitude in 2021, to the more central location of the fault segment ruptured in 2021 with respect to coastal zones, and/or to possible climatic preconditioning of slope failures in the 2021 affected area.
Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Shashank Bhushan, Mylène Jacquemart, César Deschamps-Berger, Etienne Berthier, Simon Gascoin, David E. Shean, Dan H. Shugar, and Andreas Kääb
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3309–3327, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3309-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3309-2022, 2022
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On 7 February 2021, a large rock–ice avalanche occurred in Chamoli, Indian Himalaya. The resulting debris flow swept down the nearby valley, leaving over 200 people dead or missing. We use a range of satellite datasets to investigate how the collapse area changed prior to collapse. We show that signs of instability were visible as early 5 years prior to collapse. However, it would likely not have been possible to predict the timing of the event from current satellite datasets.
Bastian van den Bout, Chenxiao Tang, Cees van Westen, and Victor Jetten
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3183–3209, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3183-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3183-2022, 2022
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Natural hazards such as earthquakes, landslides, and flooding do not always occur as stand-alone events. After the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, a co-seismic landslide blocked a stream in Hongchun. Two years later, a debris flow breached the material, blocked the Min River, and resulted in flooding of a small town. We developed a multi-process model that captures the full cascade. Despite input and process uncertainties, probability of flooding was high due to topography and trigger intensities.
Lucas Pelascini, Philippe Steer, Maxime Mouyen, and Laurent Longuevergne
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3125–3141, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3125-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3125-2022, 2022
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Landslides represent a major natural hazard and are often triggered by typhoons. We present a new 2D model computing the respective role of rainfall infiltration, atmospheric depression and groundwater in slope stability during typhoons. The results show rainfall is the strongest factor of destabilisation. However, if the slope is fully saturated, near the toe of the slope or during the wet season, rainfall infiltration is limited and atmospheric pressure change can become the dominant factor.
Anne Felsberg, Jean Poesen, Michel Bechtold, Matthias Vanmaercke, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3063–3082, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3063-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3063-2022, 2022
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In this study we assessed global landslide susceptibility at the coarse 36 km spatial resolution of global satellite soil moisture observations to prepare for a subsequent combination of the two. Specifically, we focus therefore on the susceptibility of hydrologically triggered landslides. We introduce ensemble techniques, common in, for example, meteorology but not yet in the landslide community, to retrieve reliable estimates of the total prediction uncertainty.
Txomin Bornaetxea, Ivan Marchesini, Sumit Kumar, Rabisankar Karmakar, and Alessandro Mondini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2929–2941, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2929-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2929-2022, 2022
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One cannot know if there is a landslide or not in an area that one has not observed. This is an obvious statement, but when landslide inventories are obtained by field observation, this fact is seldom taken into account. Since fieldwork campaigns are often done following the roads, we present a methodology to estimate the visibility of the terrain from the roads, and we demonstrate that fieldwork-based inventories are underestimating landslide density in less visible areas.
Katy Burrows, Odin Marc, and Dominique Remy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2637–2653, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2637-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2637-2022, 2022
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The locations of triggered landslides following a rainfall event can be identified in optical satellite images. However cloud cover associated with the rainfall means that these images cannot be used to identify landslide timing. Timings of landslides triggered during long rainfall events are often unknown. Here we present methods of using Sentinel-1 satellite radar data, acquired every 12 d globally in all weather conditions, to better constrain the timings of rainfall-triggered landslides.
Feiko Bernard van Zadelhoff, Adel Albaba, Denis Cohen, Chris Phillips, Bettina Schaefli, Luuk Dorren, and Massimiliano Schwarz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2611–2635, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2611-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2611-2022, 2022
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Shallow landslides pose a risk to people, property and infrastructure. Assessment of this hazard and the impact of protective measures can reduce losses. We developed a model (SlideforMAP) that can assess the shallow-landslide risk on a regional scale for specific rainfall events. Trees are an effective and cheap protective measure on a regional scale. Our model can assess their hazard reduction down to the individual tree level.
Chuxuan Li, Alexander L. Handwerger, Jiali Wang, Wei Yu, Xiang Li, Noah J. Finnegan, Yingying Xie, Giuseppe Buscarnera, and Daniel E. Horton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2317–2345, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2317-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2317-2022, 2022
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In January 2021 a storm triggered numerous debris flows in a wildfire burn scar in California. We use a hydrologic model to assess debris flow susceptibility in pre-fire and postfire scenarios. Compared to pre-fire conditions, postfire conditions yield dramatic increases in peak water discharge, substantially increasing debris flow susceptibility. Our work highlights the hydrologic model's utility in investigating and potentially forecasting postfire debris flows at regional scales.
Saskia de Vilder, Chris Massey, Biljana Lukovic, Tony Taig, and Regine Morgenstern
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2289–2316, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2289-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2289-2022, 2022
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This study calculates the fatality risk posed by landslides while visiting Franz Josef Glacier and Fox Glacier valleys, New Zealand, for nine different scenarios, where the variables of the risk equation were adjusted to determine the range in risk values and associated uncertainty. The results show that it is important to consider variable inputs that change through time, such as the increasing probability of an earthquake and the impact of climate change on landslide characteristics.
Yiwei Zhang, Jianping Chen, Qing Wang, Chun Tan, Yongchao Li, Xiaohui Sun, and Yang Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2239–2255, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2239-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2239-2022, 2022
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The disaster prevention and mitigation of debris flow is a very important scientific problem. Our model is based on geographic information system (GIS), combined with grey relational, data-driven and fuzzy logic methods. Through our results, we believe that the streamlining of factors and scientific classification should attract attention from other researchers to optimize a model. We also propose a good perspective to make better use of the watershed feature parameters.
Jan Pfeiffer, Thomas Zieher, Jan Schmieder, Thom Bogaard, Martin Rutzinger, and Christoph Spötl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2219–2237, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2219-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2219-2022, 2022
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The activity of slow-moving deep-seated landslides is commonly governed by pore pressure variations within the shear zone. Groundwater recharge as a consequence of precipitation therefore is a process regulating the activity of landslides. In this context, we present a highly automated geo-statistical approach to spatially assess groundwater recharge controlling the velocity of a deep-seated landslide in Tyrol, Austria.
Ivo Fustos-Toribio, Nataly Manque-Roa, Daniel Vásquez Antipan, Mauricio Hermosilla Sotomayor, and Viviana Letelier Gonzalez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2169–2183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2169-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2169-2022, 2022
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We develop for the first time a rainfall-induced landslide early warning system for the south of Chile. We used forecast precipitation values at different scales using mesoscale models to evaluate the probability of landslides using statistical models. We showed the feasibility of implementing these models in future, supporting stakeholders and decision-makers.
Katrin M. Nissen, Stefan Rupp, Thomas M. Kreuzer, Björn Guse, Bodo Damm, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2117–2130, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2117-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2117-2022, 2022
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A statistical model is introduced which quantifies the influence of individual potential triggering factors and their interactions on rockfall probability in central Europe. The most important factor is daily precipitation, which is most effective if sub-surface moisture levels are high. Freeze–thaw cycles in the preceding days can further increase the rockfall hazard. The model can be applied to climate simulations in order to investigate the effect of climate change on rockfall probability.
Andreas Schimmel, Velio Coviello, and Francesco Comiti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1955–1968, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1955-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1955-2022, 2022
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The estimation of debris flow velocity and volume is a fundamental task for the development of early warning systems and other mitigation measures. This work provides a first approach for estimating the velocity and the total volume of debris flows based on the seismic signal detected with simple, low-cost geophones installed along the debris flow channel. The developed method was applied to seismic data collected at three test sites in the Alps: Gadria and Cancia (IT) and Lattenbach (AT).
Judith Uwihirwe, Markus Hrachowitz, and Thom Bogaard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1723–1742, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1723-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1723-2022, 2022
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This research tested the value of regional groundwater level information to improve landslide predictions with empirical models based on the concept of threshold levels. In contrast to precipitation-based thresholds, the results indicated that relying on threshold models exclusively defined using hydrological variables such as groundwater levels can lead to improved landslide predictions due to their implicit consideration of long-term antecedent conditions until the day of landslide occurrence.
Andrea Manconi, Alessandro C. Mondini, and the AlpArray working group
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1655–1664, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1655-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1655-2022, 2022
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Information on when, where, and how landslide events occur is the key to building complete catalogues and performing accurate hazard assessments. Here we show a procedure that allows us to benefit from the increased density of seismic sensors installed on ground for earthquake monitoring and from the unprecedented availability of satellite radar data. We show how the procedure works on a recent sequence of landslides that occurred at Piz Cengalo (Swiss Alps) in 2017.
Andrew Mitchell, Sophia Zubrycky, Scott McDougall, Jordan Aaron, Mylène Jacquemart, Johannes Hübl, Roland Kaitna, and Christoph Graf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1627–1654, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1627-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1627-2022, 2022
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Debris flows are complex, surging movements of sediment and water. Discharge observations from well-studied debris-flow channels were used as inputs for a numerical modelling study of the downstream effects of chaotic inflows. The results show that downstream impacts are sensitive to inflow conditions. Inflow conditions for predictive modelling are highly uncertain, and our method provides a means to estimate the potential variability in future events.
Sansar Raj Meena, Silvia Puliero, Kushanav Bhuyan, Mario Floris, and Filippo Catani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1395–1417, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1395-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1395-2022, 2022
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The study investigated the importance of the conditioning factors in predicting landslide occurrences using the mentioned models. In this paper, we evaluated the importance of the conditioning factors (features) in the overall prediction capabilities of the statistical and machine learning algorithms.
Pierpaolo Distefano, David J. Peres, Pietro Scandura, and Antonino Cancelliere
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1151–1157, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1151-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1151-2022, 2022
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In the communication, we introduce the use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) for improving the performance of rainfall thresholds for landslide early warning. Results show how ANNs using rainfall event duration and mean intensity perform significantly better than a classical power law based on the same variables. Adding peak rainfall intensity as input to the ANN improves performance even more. This further demonstrates the potentialities of the proposed machine learning approach.
Robert Emberson, Dalia B. Kirschbaum, Pukar Amatya, Hakan Tanyas, and Odin Marc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1129–1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1129-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1129-2022, 2022
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Understanding where landslides occur in mountainous areas is critical to support hazard analysis as well as understand landscape evolution. In this study, we present a large compilation of inventories of landslides triggered by rainfall, including several that are described here for the first time. We analyze the topographic characteristics of the landslides, finding consistent relationships for landslide source and deposition areas, despite differences in the inventories' locations.
Alexander L. Handwerger, Mong-Han Huang, Shannan Y. Jones, Pukar Amatya, Hannah R. Kerner, and Dalia B. Kirschbaum
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 753–773, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-753-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-753-2022, 2022
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Rapid detection of landslides is critical for emergency response and disaster mitigation. Here we develop a global landslide detection tool in Google Earth Engine that uses satellite radar data to measure changes in the ground surface properties. We find that we can detect areas with high landslide density within days of a triggering event. Our approach allows the broader hazard community to utilize these state-of-the-art data for improved situational awareness of landslide hazards.
Qiwen Lin, Yufeng Wang, Yu Xie, Qiangong Cheng, and Kaifeng Deng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 639–657, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-639-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-639-2022, 2022
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Fracturing and fragmentation of rock blocks are important and universal phenomena during the movement of rock avalanches (large and long-run-out rockslide-debris avalanches). The movement of a fragmenting rock block is simulated by the discrete element method, aiming to quantify the fracturing and fragmentation effect of the block in propagation. The fracturing and fragmentation processes and their influences on energy transformation in the system are described in detail.
Napoleon Gudino-Elizondo, Matthew W. Brand, Trent W. Biggs, Alejandro Hinojosa-Corona, Álvaro Gómez-Gutiérrez, Eddy Langendoen, Ronald Bingner, Yongping Yuan, and Brett F. Sanders
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 523–538, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-523-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-523-2022, 2022
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Mass movement hazards in the form of gullies and landslides pose significant risks in urbanizing areas yet are poorly documented. This paper presents observations and modeling of mass movement events over a 5-year period in Tijuana, Mexico. Three major events were observed, and all were linked to water resources infrastructure failures (WRIFs), namely leaks and breaks in water supply pipes. Modeling shows that WRIF-based erosion was also a non-negligible contributor to the total sediment budget.
David G. Milledge, Dino G. Bellugi, Jack Watt, and Alexander L. Densmore
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 481–508, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-481-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-481-2022, 2022
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Earthquakes can trigger thousands of landslides, causing severe and widespread damage. Efforts to understand what controls these landslides rely heavily on costly and time-consuming manual mapping from satellite imagery. We developed a new method that automatically detects landslides triggered by earthquakes using thousands of free satellite images. We found that in the majority of cases, it was as skilful at identifying the locations of landslides as the manual maps that we tested it against.
Sohrab Sharifi, Michael T. Hendry, Renato Macciotta, and Trevor Evans
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 411–430, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-411-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-411-2022, 2022
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This study is devoted to comparing the effectiveness of three different filters for noise reduction of instruments. It was observed that the Savitzky–Golay and Gaussian-weighted moving average filters outperform the simple moving average. Application of these two filters in real-time landslide monitoring leads to timely detection of acceleration moment and better preservation of information regarding displacement and velocity.
Alex Garcés, Gerardo Zegers, Albert Cabré, Germán Aguilar, Aldo Tamburrino, and Santiago Montserrat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 377–393, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-377-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-377-2022, 2022
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We propose a workflow to model the response of an alluvial fan located in the Atacama Desert during an extreme storm event. For this alluvial fan, five different deposits were identified and associated with different debris flow surges. Using a commercial software program, our workflow concatenates these surges into one model. This study depicts the significance of the mechanical classification of debris flows to reproduce how an alluvial fan controls the tributary–river junction connectivity.
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