Articles | Volume 14, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1905-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1905-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
30 Jul 2014
Research article |
| 30 Jul 2014
Numerical modeling and analysis of the effect of complex Greek topography on tornadogenesis
I. T. Matsangouras
Laboratory of Climatology and Atmospheric Environment, Faculty of Geology and Geoenvironment, University of Athens, Panepistimioupolis, 15784, Athens, Greece
I. Pytharoulis
Department of Meteorology and Climatology, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, University Campus, 54124, Thessaloniki, Greece
P. T. Nastos
Laboratory of Climatology and Atmospheric Environment, Faculty of Geology and Geoenvironment, University of Athens, Panepistimioupolis, 15784, Athens, Greece
Related authors
K. Papachristopoulou, I. T. Matsangouras, and P. T. Nastos
Adv. Sci. Res., 12, 45–49, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-45-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-45-2015, 2015
P. T. Nastos and I. T. Matsangouras
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2409–2421, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2409-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2409-2014, 2014
Anna Karali, Konstantinos V. Varotsos, Christos Giannakopoulos, Panagiotis P. Nastos, and Maria Hatzaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 429–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-429-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-429-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As climate change leads to more frequent and severe fires, forecasting fire danger before fire season begins can support fire management. This study aims to provide high-resolution probabilistic seasonal fire danger forecasts in a Mediterranean environment and assess their ability to capture years with increased fire activity. Results indicate that forecasts are skillful in predicting above-normal fire danger conditions and can be exploited by regional authorities in fire prevention management.
Christian Ferrarin, Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Marco Bajo, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Elenio Avolio, Diego S. Carrió, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Claudio Sanchez, Platon Patlakas, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, and Emmanouil Flaounas
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-990, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-990, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The combined use of meteorological and ocean models enabled the analysis of extreme sea conditions driven by medicane Ianos, which hit the western coast of Greece on 18 September 2020, flooding and damaging the coast. The large spread associated with the ensemble highlighted the high model uncertainty in simulating such an extreme weather event. The different simulations have been used for outlining hazard scenarios that represent a fundamental component of the coastal risk assessment.
Panagiotis T. Nastos, Nicolas R. Dalezios, Ioannis N. Faraslis, Kostas Mitrakopoulos, Anna Blanta, Marios Spiliotopoulos, Stavros Sakellariou, Pantelis Sidiropoulos, and Ana M. Tarquis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1935–1954, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1935-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1935-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Risk assessment consists of three steps: identification, estimation and evaluation. Nevertheless, the risk management framework also includes a fourth step, the need for feedback on all the risk assessment undertakings. However, there is a lack of such feedback, which constitutes a serious deficiency in the reduction of environmental hazards at the present time. The objective of this review paper consists of addressing meteorological hazards and extremes within the risk management framework.
Dimitris Akritidis, Eleni Katragkou, Prodromos Zanis, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Dimitris Melas, Johannes Flemming, Antje Inness, Hannah Clark, Matthieu Plu, and Henk Eskes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15515–15534, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15515-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15515-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Analysis and evaluation of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) global and regional forecast systems during a deep stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone transport event over Europe in January 2017. Radiosondes, satellite images, ozonesondes and aircraft measurements were used to investigate the folding of the tropopause at several European sites and the induced presence of dry and ozone-rich air in the troposphere.
Panagiotis T. Nastos and Nicolas R. Dalezios
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1259–1268, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1259-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1259-2016, 2016
K. Papachristopoulou, I. T. Matsangouras, and P. T. Nastos
Adv. Sci. Res., 12, 45–49, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-45-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-45-2015, 2015
E. Katragkou, M. García-Díez, R. Vautard, S. Sobolowski, P. Zanis, G. Alexandri, R. M. Cardoso, A. Colette, J. Fernandez, A. Gobiet, K. Goergen, T. Karacostas, S. Knist, S. Mayer, P. M. M. Soares, I. Pytharoulis, I. Tegoulias, A. Tsikerdekis, and D. Jacob
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 603–618, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-603-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-603-2015, 2015
P. T. Nastos and I. T. Matsangouras
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2409–2421, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2409-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2409-2014, 2014
K. Tolika, P. Maheras, I. Pytharoulis, and C. Anagnostopoulou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 501–507, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-501-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-501-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Variations of extreme precipitation events with sub-daily data: a case study in the Ganjiang River basin
Human influence on growing-period frosts like in early April 2021 in central France
Improving the predictability of the Qendresa Medicane by the assimilation of conventional and atmospheric motion vector observations. Storm-scale analysis and short-range forecast
Investigation of an extreme rainfall event during 8–12 December 2018 over central Vietnam – Part 1: Analysis and cloud-resolving simulation
Increased spatial extent and likelihood of compound long-duration dry and hot events in China, 1961–2014
Validating a tailored drought risk assessment methodology: drought risk assessment in local Papua New Guinea regions
Seasonal fire danger forecasts for supporting fire prevention management in an eastern Mediterranean environment: the case of Attica, Greece
Uncovering the veil of night light changes in times of catastrophe
Time of emergence of compound events: contribution of univariate and dependence properties
Skillful decadal prediction of German Bight storm activity
Droughts in Germany: performance of regional climate models in reproducing observed characteristics
Analysis of the relationship between yield in cereals and remotely sensed fAPAR in the framework of monitoring drought impacts in Europe
Meteorological, impact and climate perspectives of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event in the Berlin metropolitan area
Using high-resolution global climate models from the PRIMAVERA project to create a European winter windstorm event set
Rescuing historical weather observations improves quantification of severe windstorm risks
Real-time urban rainstorm and waterlogging disaster detection by Weibo users
Sensitivity of simulating Typhoon Haiyan (2013) using WRF: the role of cumulus convection, surface flux parameterizations, spectral nudging, and initial and boundary conditions
The 2018 west-central European drought projected in a warmer climate: how much drier can it get?
A satellite lightning observation operator for storm-scale numerical weather prediction
The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective
Effect of extreme El Niño events on the precipitations of Ecuador
Heat waves monitoring over West African cities: uncertainties, characterization and recent trends
Development and validation using ground truth of a method to identify potential release areas of snow avalanches based on watershed delineation
Lessons from the 2018–2019 European droughts: a collective need for unifying drought risk management
Idealized simulations of Mei-yu rainfall in Taiwan under uniform southwesterly flow using a cloud-resolving model
Hotspots for warm and dry summers in Romania
Development of a forecast-oriented kilometre-resolution ocean–atmosphere coupled system for western Europe and sensitivity study for a severe weather situation
Tropical cyclone storm surge probabilities for the east coast of the United States: a cyclone-based perspective
Hydrometeorological analysis of the 12 and 13 September 2019 widespread flash flooding in eastern Spain
Monitoring the daily evolution and extent of snow drought
Characteristics of precipitation extremes over the Nordic region: added value of convection-permitting modeling
Adaptation and application of the large LAERTES-EU regional climate model ensemble for modeling hydrological extremes: a pilot study for the Rhine basin
Invited perspectives: how does climate change affect the risk of natural hazards? Challenges and step changes from the reinsurance perspective
Nowcasting thunderstorm hazards using machine learning: the impact of data sources on performance
Spatio-temporal evolution of wet–dry event features and their transition across the Upper Jhelum Basin (UJB) in South Asia
Precipitation stable isotopic signatures of tropical cyclones in Metropolitan Manila, Philippines, show significant negative isotopic excursions
Evaluation of Mei-yu heavy-rainfall quantitative precipitation forecasts in Taiwan by a cloud-resolving model for three seasons of 2012–2014
Modelling the volcanic ash plume from Eyjafjallajökull eruption (May 2010) over Europe: evaluation of the benefit of source term improvements and of the assimilation of aerosol measurements
Applying machine learning for drought prediction in a perfect model framework using data from a large ensemble of climate simulations
Using high-resolution regional climate models to estimate return levels of daily extreme precipitation over Bavaria
Characteristics of hail hazard in South Africa based on satellite detection of convective storms
An ensemble of state-of-the-art ash dispersion models: towards probabilistic forecasts to increase the resilience of air traffic against volcanic eruptions
A climatology of sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation in Switzerland and its links to extreme discharge
Impact of large wildfires on PM10 levels and human mortality in Portugal
Investigating 3D and 4D variational rapid-update-cycling assimilation of weather radar reflectivity for a heavy rain event in central Italy
Variability in lightning hazard over Indian region with respect to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases
Social sensing of high-impact rainfall events worldwide: a benchmark comparison against manually curated impact observations
Attribution of the role of climate change in the forest fires in Sweden 2018
Invited perspectives: The ECMWF strategy 2021–2030 challenges in the area of natural hazards
Implementation of WRF-Hydro at two drainage basins in the region of Attica, Greece, for operational flood forecasting
Guangxu Liu, Aicun Xiang, Zhiwei Wan, Yang Zhou, Jie Wu, Yuandong Wang, and Sichen Lin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1139–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper focuses on investigating the thresholds of extreme precipitation using sub-daily records in the Ganjiang River basin using gamma distribution, the L-moment method and the Mann–Kendall (M–K) test. The main findings are (1) run 3 (36 h) precipitation events would be key events for flood monitoring. (2）The intensity and the occasional probability of extreme precipitation will increase in spring in the future in stations like Yifeng, Zhangshu and Ningdu.
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Rémy Bonnet, Sihan Li, Yoann Robin, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Brigitte Dubuisson, Nicolas Viovy, Markus Reichstein, Friederike Otto, and Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1045–1058, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A deep frost occurred in early April 2021, inducing severe damages in grapevine and fruit trees in France. We found that such extreme frosts occurring after the start of the growing season such as those of April 2021 are currently about 2°C colder [0.5 °C to 3.3 °C] in observations than in preindustrial climate. This observed intensification of growing-period frosts is attributable, at least in part, to human-caused climate change, making the 2021 event 50 % more likely [10 %–110 %].
Diego S. Carrió
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 847–869, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The accurate prediction of medicanes still remains a key challenge in the scientific community because of their poor predictability. In this study we assimilate different observations to improve the trajectory and intensity forecasts of the Qendresa Medicane. Results show the importance of using data assimilation techniques to improve the estimate of the atmospheric flow in the upper-level atmosphere, which has been shown to be key to improve the prediction of Qendresa.
Chung-Chieh Wang and Duc Van Nguyen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 771–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-771-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-771-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A record-breaking rainfall event over central Vietnam is investigated. Key factors include the combined effect of northeasterly wind, easterly wind blowing to central Vietnam from the western North Pacific (WNP), southeasterly wind, local topography, and high sea surface temperature (SST) over WNP and the South China Sea (SCS). The cloud-resolving storm simulator (CReSS) is applied to simulate this event. The results show that the model mostly captured the quantitative rainfall of this event.
Yi Yang, Douglas Maraun, Albert Ossó, and Jianping Tang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 693–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-693-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-693-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study quantifies the spatiotemporal variation and characteristics of compound long-duration dry and hot events in China over the 1961–2014 period. The results show that over the past few decades, there has been a substantial increase in the frequency of these compound events across most parts of China, which is dominated by rising temperatures. We detect a strong increase in the spatially contiguous areas experiencing concurrent dry and hot conditions.
Isabella Aitkenhead, Yuriy Kuleshov, Jessica Bhardwaj, Zhi-Weng Chua, Chayn Sun, and Suelynn Choy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 553–586, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-553-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-553-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A case study assessing drought risk in Papua New Guinea (PNG) provinces for retrospective years (2014–2020) was conducted to demonstrate the development and validate the application of a tailored and semi-dynamic drought risk assessment methodology. Hazard, vulnerability, and exposure indicators appropriate for monitoring drought in PNG provinces were selected. The risk assessment accurately indicated a strong drought event in 2015–2016 and a moderate event in 2019.
Anna Karali, Konstantinos V. Varotsos, Christos Giannakopoulos, Panagiotis P. Nastos, and Maria Hatzaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 429–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-429-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-429-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As climate change leads to more frequent and severe fires, forecasting fire danger before fire season begins can support fire management. This study aims to provide high-resolution probabilistic seasonal fire danger forecasts in a Mediterranean environment and assess their ability to capture years with increased fire activity. Results indicate that forecasts are skillful in predicting above-normal fire danger conditions and can be exploited by regional authorities in fire prevention management.
Vincent Schippers and Wouter Botzen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 179–204, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-179-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-179-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Researchers studying economic impacts of natural disasters increasingly use night light as a proxy for local economic activity, when socioeconomic data are unavailable. But often it is unclear what changes in light intensity represent in the context of disasters. We study this in detail for Hurricane Katrina and find a strong correlation with building damage and changes in population and employment. We conclude that night light data are useful to study local impacts of natural disasters.
Bastien François and Mathieu Vrac
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 21–44, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-21-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-21-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Compound events (CEs) result from a combination of several climate phenomena. In this study, we propose a new methodology to assess the time of emergence of CE probabilities and to quantify the contribution of marginal and dependence properties of climate phenomena to the overall CE probability changes. By applying our methodology to two case studies, we show the importance of considering changes in both marginal and dependence properties for future risk assessments related to CEs.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Patrick Pieper, Ralf Weisse, and Johanna Baehr
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3993–4009, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3993-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3993-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate predictions of storm activity are desirable for coastal management. We investigate how well a climate model can predict storm activity in the German Bight 1–10 years in advance. We let the model predict the past, compare these predictions to observations, and analyze whether the model is doing better than simple statistical predictions. We find that the model generally shows good skill for extreme periods, but the prediction timeframes with good skill depend on the type of prediction.
Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3875–3895, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3875-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3875-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of model resolution and settings on drought reproduction in Germany between 1980–2009 is investigated here. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Gridded observational data sets serve as reference. Regarding the reproduction of drought characteristics, all models perform on a similar level, while for trends, only the modified model produces reliable outputs.
Carmelo Cammalleri, Niall McCormick, and Andrea Toreti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3737–3750, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3737-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3737-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated the ability of vegetation indices derived from satellite data to capture annual yield variations across Europe. The strength of the relationship varies throughout the year, with March–October representing the optimal period in most cases. Spatial differences were also observed, with the best results obtained in the Mediterranean regions.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Markus Augenstein, Georgy Ayzel, Klemens Barfus, Ribu Cherian, Lisa Dillenardt, Felix Fauer, Hendrik Feldmann, Maik Heistermann, Alexia Karwat, Frank Kaspar, Heidi Kreibich, Etor Emanuel Lucio-Eceiza, Edmund P. Meredith, Susanna Mohr, Deborah Niermann, Stephan Pfahl, Florian Ruff, Henning W. Rust, Lukas Schoppa, Thomas Schwitalla, Stella Steidl, Annegret H. Thieken, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Johannes Quaas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3701–3724, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In a warming climate, extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent. To advance our knowledge on such phenomena, we present a multidisciplinary analysis of a selected case study that took place on 29 June 2017 in the Berlin metropolitan area. Our analysis provides evidence of the extremeness of the case from the atmospheric and the impacts perspectives as well as new insights on the physical mechanisms of the event at the meteorological and climate scales.
Julia F. Lockwood, Galina S. Guentchev, Alexander Alabaster, Simon J. Brown, Erika J. Palin, Malcolm J. Roberts, and Hazel E. Thornton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3585–3606, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3585-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3585-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We describe how we developed a set of 1300 years' worth of European winter windstorm footprints, using a multi-model ensemble of high-resolution global climate models, for use by the insurance industry to analyse windstorm risk. The large amount of data greatly reduces uncertainty on risk estimates compared to using shorter observational data sets and also allows the relationship between windstorm risk and predictable large-scale climate indices to be quantified.
Ed Hawkins, Philip Brohan, Samantha Burgess, Stephen Burt, Gilbert Compo, Suzanne Gray, Ivan Haigh, Hans Hersbach, Kiki Kuijjer, Oscar Martinez-Alvarado, Chesley McColl, Andrew Schurer, Laura Slivinski, and Joanne Williams
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1045, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1045, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We examine a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 and caused significant damage in the UK & Ireland. Using newly digitised weather observations from the time of the storm, combined with a modern weather forecast model, allows us to determine why this storm caused so much damage. We demonstrate that this event is one of the most severe windstorms to affect this region since detailed records began. This approach establishes a new tool to improve assessments of risk from extreme weather.
Haoran Zhu, Priscilla Obeng Oforiwaa, and Guofeng Su
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3349–3359, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3349-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3349-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We promote a new method to detect waterlogging disasters. Residents are directly affected by waterlogging, and we can collect their comments on social networks. Compared to official-authentication and personal-certification users, the microblogs posted by general users can better show the intensity and timing of waterlogging. Through text and sentiment features, we can separate microblogs with waterlogging information from other ones and mark high-risk regions on maps.
Rafaela Jane Delfino, Gerry Bagtasa, Kevin Hodges, and Pier Luigi Vidale
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3285–3307, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3285-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3285-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We showed the effects of altering the choice of cumulus schemes, surface flux options, and spectral nudging with a high level of sensitivity to cumulus schemes in simulating an intense typhoon. We highlight the advantage of using an ensemble of cumulus parameterizations to take into account the uncertainty in simulating typhoons such as Haiyan in 2013. This study is useful in addressing the growing need to plan and prepare for as well as reduce the impacts of intense typhoons in the Philippines.
Emma Elizabeth Aalbers, Erik van Meijgaard, Geert Lenderink, Hylke de Vries, and Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-954, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-954, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To examine the impact of global warming on west-central European droughts, we have constructed future analogues of recent summers. Years that went hardly noticed in the present-day climate may emerge as very dry and hot in a warmer world. Extreme droughts like 2018 further intensify and the local temperature rise is much larger than in most summers. These changes can be directly linked to real world events, which make the results very tangible and hence useful for climate change communication.
Pauline Combarnous, Felix Erdmann, Olivier Caumont, Éric Defer, and Maud Martet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2943–2962, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2943-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2943-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study is to prepare the assimilation of satellite lightning data in the French regional numerical weather prediction system. The assimilation of lightning data requires an observation operator, based on empirical relationships between the lightning observations and a set of proxies derived from the numerical weather prediction system variables. We fit machine learning regression models to our data to yield those relationships and to investigate the best proxy for lightning.
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-813, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-813, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we present a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe with a particular focus on Germany. Using different analysis approaches we study (a) the extremeness and attribution to anthropogenic climate change (climate perspective), as well as (b) the synoptic dynamics in concert with the role of slowly varying boundary conditions at the ocean and continental surfaces (seasonal and weather perspective).
Dirk Thielen, Paolo Ramoni-Perazzi, Mary L. Puche, Marco Marquez, José I. Quintero, Wilmer Rojas, Alberto Quintero, Guillermo Bianchi, Irma A. Soto-Werschitz, and Marco Aurelio Arizapana-Almonacid
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-763, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-763, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme El Niño events are significantly different from other El Niños, standing out for their powerful impacts, and are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity. In this regard, we provide valuable and highly strategic information on the similarities and differences between the effects on precipitation from types of extreme El Niño, highlighting spatially and quantitatively, those regions where most extreme precipitation anomalies are most likely to occur in extreme events.
Cedric Gacial Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, Mathieu Vrac, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-192, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-192, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Heat waves (HW) are climatic hazards affecting the planet. We assess here uncertainties encountered in the process of HW detection and analyze their recent trends in West Africa using reanalysis data. Three types of uncertainties have been investigated. We identified 4 years with higher frequency of HW possibly due to higher sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Atlantic. We noticed an increase in HW characteristics during the last decade, which could be a consequence of climate change.
Cécile Duvillier, Nicolas Eckert, Guillaume Evin, and Michael Deschâtres
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-177, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Identification of snow avalanche Potential Release Areas (PRAs) is useful for objective hazard assessment. This study develops a method that efficiently identifies individual PRAs based on terrain analysis and watershed delineation, and demonstrates its efficiency in the French Alps context using an extensive cadastre of past avalanche limits. Crucial steps to reach high accuracy in PRA detection are highlighted and outlooks for further progresses are discussed.
Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lauri Ahopelto, Manuela I. Brunner, Claudia Teutschbein, Doris E. Wendt, Vytautas Akstinas, Sigrid J. Bakke, Lucy J. Barker, Lenka Bartošová, Agrita Briede, Carmelo Cammalleri, Ksenija Cindrić Kalin, Lucia De Stefano, Miriam Fendeková, David C. Finger, Marijke Huysmans, Mirjana Ivanov, Jaak Jaagus, Jiří Jakubínský, Svitlana Krakovska, Gregor Laaha, Monika Lakatos, Kiril Manevski, Mathias Neumann Andersen, Nina Nikolova, Marzena Osuch, Pieter van Oel, Kalina Radeva, Renata J. Romanowicz, Elena Toth, Mirek Trnka, Marko Urošev, Julia Urquijo Reguera, Eric Sauquet, Aleksandra Stevkov, Lena M. Tallaksen, Iryna Trofimova, Anne F. Van Loon, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Niko Wanders, Micha Werner, Patrick Willems, and Nenad Živković
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2201–2217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recent drought events caused enormous damage in Europe. We therefore questioned the existence and effect of current drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how drought is perceived by relevant stakeholders. Over 700 participants from 28 European countries provided insights into drought hazard and impact perception and current management strategies. The study concludes with an urgent need to collectively combat drought risk via a European macro-level drought governance approach.
Chung-Chieh Wang, Pi-Yu Chuang, Shi-Ting Chen, Dong-In Lee, and Kazuhisa Tsuboki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1795–1817, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1795-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1795-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, cloud-resolving simulations are performed under idealized and uniform southwesterly flow direction and speed to investigate the rainfall regimes in the Mei-yu season and the role of complex mesoscale topography on rainfall without the influence of unwanted disturbances, including a low-Froude number regime where the thermodynamic effects and island circulation dominate, a high-Froude number regime where topographic rainfall in a flow-over scenario prevails, and a mixed regime.
Viorica Nagavciuc, Patrick Scholz, and Monica Ionita
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1347–1369, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1347-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1347-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here we have assessed the variability and trends of hot and dry summers in Romania. The length, spatial extent, and frequency of heat waves in Romania have increased significantly over the last 70 years, while no significant changes have been observed in the drought conditions. The increased frequency of heat waves, especially after the 1990s, could be partially explained by an increase in the geopotential height over the eastern part of Europe.
Joris Pianezze, Jonathan Beuvier, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Guillaume Samson, Ghislain Faure, and Gilles Garric
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1301–1324, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1301-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1301-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Most numerical weather and oceanic prediction systems do not consider ocean–atmosphere feedback during forecast, and this can lead to significant forecast errors, notably in cases of severe situations. A new high-resolution coupled ocean–atmosphere system is presented in this paper. This forecast-oriented system, based on current regional operational systems and evaluated using satellite and in situ observations, shows that the coupling improves both atmospheric and oceanic forecasts.
Katherine L. Towey, James F. Booth, Alejandra Rodriguez Enriquez, and Thomas Wahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1287–1300, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1287-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1287-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal flooding due to storm surge from tropical cyclones is a significant hazard. The influence of tropical cyclone characteristics, including its proximity, intensity, path angle, and speed, on the magnitude of storm surge is examined along the eastern United States. No individual characteristic was found to be strongly related to how much surge occurred at a site, though there is an increased likelihood of high surge occurring when tropical cyclones are both strong and close to a location.
Arnau Amengual
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1159–1179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1159-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1159-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
On 12 and 13 September 2019, a long-lasting heavy precipitation episode resulted in widespread flash flooding over eastern Spain. Well-organized and quasi-stationary convective structures impacted a vast area with rainfall amounts over 200 mm. The very dry initial soil moisture conditions resulted in a dampened hydrological response: until runoff thresholds were exceeded, infiltration-excess generation did not start. This threshold-based behaviour is explored through simple scaling theory.
Benjamin J. Hatchett, Alan M. Rhoades, and Daniel J. McEvoy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 869–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-869-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-869-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Snow droughts, or below-average snowpack, can result from either dry conditions and/or rainfall instead of snowfall. Monitoring snow drought through time and across space is important to evaluate when snow drought onset occurred, its duration, spatial extent, and severity as well as what conditions created it or led to its termination. We present visualization techniques, including a web-based snow-drought-tracking tool, to evaluate snow droughts and assess their impacts in the western US.
Erika Médus, Emma D. Thomassen, Danijel Belušić, Petter Lind, Peter Berg, Jens H. Christensen, Ole B. Christensen, Andreas Dobler, Erik Kjellström, Jonas Olsson, and Wei Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 693–711, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the skill of a regional climate model, HARMONIE-Climate, to capture the present-day characteristics of heavy precipitation in the Nordic region and investigate the added value provided by a convection-permitting model version. The higher model resolution improves the representation of hourly heavy- and extreme-precipitation events and their diurnal cycle. The results indicate the benefits of convection-permitting models for constructing climate change projections over the region.
Florian Ehmele, Lisa-Ann Kautz, Hendrik Feldmann, Yi He, Martin Kadlec, Fanni D. Kelemen, Hilke S. Lentink, Patrick Ludwig, Desmond Manful, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 677–692, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-677-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-677-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
For various applications, it is crucial to have profound knowledge of the frequency, severity, and risk of extreme flood events. Such events are characterized by very long return periods which observations can not cover. We use a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations as input for a hydrological model. Precipitation data were post-processed to reduce systematic errors. The representation of precipitation and discharge is improved, and estimates of long return periods become robust.
Anja T. Rädler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 659–664, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-659-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-659-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Natural disasters are causing high losses worldwide. To adequately deal with this loss potential, a reinsurer has to quantitatively assess the individual risks of natural catastrophes and how these risks are changing over time with respect to climate change. From a reinsurance perspective, the most pressing scientific challenges related to natural hazards are addressed, and broad changes are suggested that should be achieved by the scientific community to address these hazards in the future.
Jussi Leinonen, Ulrich Hamann, Urs Germann, and John R. Mecikalski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 577–597, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-577-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-577-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the usefulness of different data sources and variables to the short-term prediction (
nowcasting) of severe thunderstorms using machine learning. Machine-learning models are trained with data from weather radars, satellite images, lightning detection and weather forecasts and with terrain elevation data. We analyze the benefits provided by each of the data sources to predicting hazards (heavy precipitation, lightning and hail) caused by the thunderstorms.
Rubina Ansari and Giovanna Grossi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 287–302, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-287-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-287-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The current research investigated spatio-temporal evolution of wet–dry events collectively, their characteristics, and their transition (wet to dry and dry to wet) across the Upper Jhelum Basin using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration (SPEI) at a monthly timescale. The results provide significant knowledge to identify and locate most vulnerable geographical hotspots of extreme events, providing the basis for more effective risk reduction and climate change adaptation plans.
Dominik Jackisch, Bi Xuan Yeo, Adam D. Switzer, Shaoneng He, Danica Linda M. Cantarero, Fernando P. Siringan, and Nathalie F. Goodkin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 213–226, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-213-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-213-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Philippines is a nation very vulnerable to devastating typhoons. We investigate if stable isotopes of precipitation can be used to detect typhoon activities in the Philippines based on daily isotope measurements from Metropolitan Manila. We find that strong typhoons such as Rammasun, which occurred in July 2014, leave detectable isotopic signals in precipitation. Besides other factors, the distance of the typhoon to the sampling site plays a key role in influencing the signal.
Chung-Chieh Wang, Pi-Yu Chuang, Chih-Sheng Chang, Kazuhisa Tsuboki, Shin-Yi Huang, and Guo-Chen Leu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 23–40, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-23-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-23-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study indicated that the Cloud-Resolving Storm Simulator (CReSS) model significantly improved heavy-rainfall quantitative precipitation forecasts in the Taiwan Mei-yu season. At high resolution, the model has higher threat scores and is more skillful in predicting larger rainfall events compared to smaller ones. And the strength of the model mainly lies in the topographic rainfall rather than less predictable and migratory events due to nonlinearity.
Matthieu Plu, Guillaume Bigeard, Bojan Sič, Emanuele Emili, Luca Bugliaro, Laaziz El Amraoui, Jonathan Guth, Beatrice Josse, Lucia Mona, and Dennis Piontek
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3731–3747, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3731-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3731-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic eruptions that spread out ash over large areas, like Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, may have huge economic consequences due to flight cancellations. In this article, we demonstrate the benefits of source term improvement and of data assimilation for quantifying volcanic ash concentrations. The work, which was supported by the EUNADICS-AV project, is the first one, to our knowledge, that demonstrates the benefit of the assimilation of ground-based lidar data over Europe during an eruption.
Elizaveta Felsche and Ralf Ludwig
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3679–3691, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3679-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3679-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study applies artificial neural networks to predict drought occurrence in Munich and Lisbon, with a lead time of 1 month. An analysis of the variables that have the highest impact on the prediction is performed. The study shows that the North Atlantic Oscillation index and air pressure 1 month before the event have the highest importance for the prediction. Moreover, it shows that seasonality strongly influences the goodness of prediction for the Lisbon domain.
Benjamin Poschlod
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3573–3598, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3573-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3573-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Three regional climate models (RCMs) are used to simulate extreme daily rainfall in Bavaria statistically occurring once every 10 or even 100 years. Results are validated with observations. The RCMs can reproduce spatial patterns and intensities, and setups with higher spatial resolutions show better results. These findings suggest that RCMs are suitable for assessing the probability of the occurrence of such rare rainfall events.
Heinz Jürgen Punge, Kristopher M. Bedka, Michael Kunz, Sarah D. Bang, and Kyle F. Itterly
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-342, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-342, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We have estimated the probability of hail events in South Africa using a combination of satellite observations, reanalysis, and insurance loss data. It is found that hail concentrate mainly in the southeast. Multivariate stochastic modeling of event properties, such as multiple events on a day or track dimensions, yields an event catalog for 25 000 years. This can be used to estimate hail risk for return periods of 200 years, required for insurance companies.
Matthieu Plu, Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher, Delia Arnold Arias, Rocio Baro, Guillaume Bigeard, Luca Bugliaro, Ana Carvalho, Laaziz El Amraoui, Kurt Eschbacher, Marcus Hirtl, Christian Maurer, Marie D. Mulder, Dennis Piontek, Lennart Robertson, Carl-Herbert Rokitansky, Fritz Zobl, and Raimund Zopp
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2973–2992, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2973-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2973-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Past volcanic eruptions that spread out ash over large areas, like Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, forced the cancellation of thousands of flights and had huge economic consequences.
In this article, an international team in the H2020 EU-funded EUNADICS-AV project has designed a probabilistic model approach to quantify ash concentrations. This approach is evaluated against measurements, and its potential use to mitigate the impact of future large-scale eruptions is discussed.
Alexandre Tuel and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2949–2972, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2949-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2949-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme river discharge may be triggered by large accumulations of precipitation over short time periods, which can result from the successive occurrence of extreme-precipitation events. We find a distinct spatiotemporal pattern in the temporal clustering behavior of precipitation extremes over Switzerland, with clustering occurring on the northern side of the Alps in winter and on their southern side in fall. Clusters tend to be followed by extreme discharge, particularly in the southern Alps.
Patricia Tarín-Carrasco, Sofia Augusto, Laura Palacios-Peña, Nuno Ratola, and Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2867–2880, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2867-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2867-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Uncontrolled wildfires have a substantial impact on the environment and local populations. Although most southern European countries have been impacted by wildfires in the last decades, Portugal has the highest percentage of burned area compared to its whole territory. Under this umbrella, associations between large fires, PM10, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality (circulatory and respiratory) have been explored using Poisson regression models for 2001–2016.
Vincenzo Mazzarella, Rossella Ferretti, Errico Picciotti, and Frank Silvio Marzano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2849–2865, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2849-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2849-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting precipitation over the Mediterranean basin is still a challenge. In this context, data assimilation techniques play a key role in improving the initial conditions and consequently the timing and position of the precipitation forecast. For the first time, the ability of a cycling 4D-Var to reproduce a heavy rain event in central Italy, as well as to provide a comparison with the largely used cycling 3D-Var, is evaluated in this study.
Avaronthan Veettil Sreenath, Sukumarapillai Abhilash, and Pattathil Vijaykumar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2597–2609, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2597-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2597-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Lightning is a multifaceted hazard with widespread negative consequences for the environment and society. We explore how El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases impact the lightning over India by modulating the deep convection and associated atmospheric thermodynamics. Results show that ENSO phases directly influence lightning during monsoon and postmonsoon seasons by pushing the mean position of subtropical westerlies southward.
Michelle D. Spruce, Rudy Arthur, Joanne Robbins, and Hywel T. P. Williams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2407–2425, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2407-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2407-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Despite increased use of impact-based weather warnings, the social impacts of extreme weather events lie beyond the reach of conventional meteorological observations and remain difficult to quantify. This study compares data collected from the social media platform Twitter with a manually curated database of high-impact rainfall events across the globe between January–June 2017. Twitter is found to be a good detector of impactful rainfall events and, therefore, a useful source of impact data.
Folmer Krikken, Flavio Lehner, Karsten Haustein, Igor Drobyshev, and Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2169–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2169-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2169-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we analyse the role of climate change in the forest fires that raged through large parts of Sweden in the summer of 2018 from a meteorological perspective. This is done by studying observationally constrained data and multiple climate models. We find a small reduced probability of such events, based on reanalyses, but a small increased probability due to global warming up to now and a more robust increase in the risk for such events in the future, based on climate models.
Florian Pappenberger, Florence Rabier, and Fabio Venuti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2163–2167, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2163-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2163-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts mission is to deliver high-quality global medium‐range (3–15 d ahead of time) weather forecasts and monitoring of the Earth system. We have published a new strategy, and in this paper we discuss what this means for forecasting and monitoring natural hazards.
Elissavet Galanaki, Konstantinos Lagouvardos, Vassiliki Kotroni, Theodore Giannaros, and Christos Giannaros
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1983–2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1983-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1983-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A two-way coupled hydrometeorological model (WRF-Hydro) is used for flood forecasting purposes in medium-catchment-size basins in Greece. The results showed the capability of WRF-Hydro to adequately simulate the observed discharge and the slight improvement in terms of quantitative precipitation forecasting compared to the WRF-only simulations.
Cited articles
Basiakos, I., Katsaras, P., Alexiou, I., Mavroudis, A., Karanikas, T., and Skrimizeas, P.: Operational Workstations at the Hellenic National Meteorological Service & A windows NT Based Briefing System, 11th European Working Group on Operational Meteorological Workstations (11th EGOWS), 5–8 June 2000, Helsinki, Finland, 2000.
Beck, A., Ahrens, B., and Stadlbacher, K.: Impact of nesting strategies in dynamical downscaling of reanalysis data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L19101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020115, 2004.
Bosart, L. F., Seimon, A., LaPenta, K. D., and Dickinson, M. J.: Supercell tornadogenesis over complex terrain: the Great Barrington, Massachusetts, tornado on 29 May 1995, Weather Forecast., 21, 897–922, 2006.
Braun, S. A. and Monteverdi, J. P.: An analysis of a mesocyclone–induced tornado occurrence in Northern California, Weather Forecast., 6, 13–31, 1991.
Brooks, H. E.: Proximity soundings for severe convection for Europe and the United States from reanalysis data, Atmos. Res., 93, 546–553, 2009.
Brooks, H. E., Doswell, C. A. III, and Kay, M. P.: Climatological estimates of local daily tornado probability for the United States, Weather Forecast., 18, 626–640, 2003.
Chen, C.-S., Lin, Y.-L., Peng, W.-C., and Liu, C.-L.: Investigation of a heavy rainfallevent over southwestern Taiwan associated with a subsynoptic cyclone during the 2003 Mei-Yu season, Atmos. Res., 95, 235–254, 2010.
Chen, C.-S., Lin, Y.-L., Hsu, N.-N., Liu, C.-L., and Chen, C.-Y.: Orographic effects on localized heavy rainfall events over southwestern Taiwan on 27 and 28 June 2008 during the post-Mei-Yu period, Atmos. Res., 101, 595–610, 2011.
Chen, C.-S., Lin, Y.-L., Zeng, H.-T., Chen, C.-Y., and Liu, C.-L.: Orographic effects on heavy rainfall events over northeastern Taiwan during the northeasterly monsoon season, Atmos. Res., 122, 310–335, 2013.
Chen, F. and Dudhia, J.: Coupling an advanced land-surface/ hydrology model with the Penn State/ NCAR MM5 modeling system. Part I: Model description and implementation, Mon. Weather Rev., 129, 569–585, 2001.
Chiao, S., Lin, Y.-L., and Kaplan, M. L.: Numerical study of the orographic forcing of heavy precipitation during MAP IOP-2B, Mon. Weather Rev., 132, 2184–2203, 2004.
Colle, B. A. and Mass, C. F.: Windstorms along the western side of the Washington Cascade Mountains. Part I: A high-resolution observational and modeling study of the 12 February 1995 event, Mon. Weather Rev., 126, 28–52, 1998.
Colle, B. A. and Mass, C. F.: High-resolution observations and numerical simulations of easterly gap flow through the Strait of Juan de Fuca on 9–10 December 1995, Mon. Weather Rev., 128, 2398–2422, 2000a.
Colle, B. A. and Mass, C. F.: The 5–9 February 1996 flooding event over the Pacific Northwest: Sensitivity studies and evaluation of the MM5 precipitation forecasts, Mon. Weather Rev., 128, 593–617, 2000b.
Craven, J. P. and Brooks, H. E.: Baseline climatology of sounding derived parameters associated with deep, moist convection, Preprints, 21st Conference on Severe Local Storms, 12–16 August 2002, St. Antonio, TX, USA, 2002.
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J. J., Park, B. K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J. N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011.
Dessens, J.: Les Trombes en France, Climatologie et Caractéristiques Physiques, Lannemezan, France, 1984 (in French).
Dessens, J. and Snow, J. T.: Tornadoes in France, Weather Forecast., 4, 110–132, 1987.
Doswell, C. A. III: The distinction between large-scale and mesoscale contribution to severe convection: a case study example, Weather Forecast., 2, 3–16, 1987.
Doswell, C. A. III and Evans, J. S.: Proximity sounding analysis for derechos and supercells: An assessment of similarities and differences, Atmos. Res., 67–68, 117–133, 2003.
Doswell, C. A. III and Schultz, D. M.: On the use of indices and parameters in forecasting severe storms, E-Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology, 1, 1–22, 2006.
Doswell, C. A. III, Brooks, H. E., and Maddox, R. A.: Flash flood forecasting: an ingredients-based methodology, Weather Forecast., 11, 560–580, 1996.
Droegemeier, K. K., Lazarus, S. M., and Davies-Jones, R. D.: The influence of helicity on numerically simulated convective storms, Mon. Weather Rev., 121, 2005–2029, 1993.
Ebert, E. E.: Fuzzy verification of high-resolution gridded forecasts: a review and proposed framework, Meteorol. Appl., 15, 51–64, 2008.
Ferrier, B. S., Lin, Y., Black, T., Rogers, E., and DiMego, G.: Implementation of a new grid-scale cloud and precipitation scheme in the NCEP Eta model, Preprints, 15th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, San Antonio, TX, American Meteorological Society, 280–283, 2002.
Galanis, G., Louka, P., Katsafados, P., Pytharoulis, I., and Kallos, G.: Applications of Kalman filters based on non-linear functions to numerical weather predictions, Ann. Geophys., 24, 2451–2460, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-24-2451-2006, 2006.
Gayà, M., Llasat, M.-C., and Arús, J.: Tornadoes and waterspouts in Catalonia (1950–2009), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1875–1883, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-1875-2011, 2011.
Giaiotti, D. B., Giovannoni, M., Pucillo, A., and Stel, F.: The climatology of tornadoes and waterspouts in Italy, Atmos. Res., 83, 534–541, 2007.
Gianfreda, F., Miglietta, M. M., and Sansò, P.: Tornadoes in Southern Apulia (Italy), Nat. Hazards, 34, 71–89, 2005.
Glickman, T. S.: Glossary of Meteorology, 2nd Edn., American Meteorological Society, 855 pp., 2000.
Gofa, F., Pytharoulis, I., Andreadis, T., Papageorgiou, I., Fragkouli, P., Louka, P., Avgoustoglou, E., and Tyrlis, V.: Evaluation of the operational NWP forecasts of the Hellenic National Meteorological Service, in: 9th Conference on Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Physics, 28–31 May, Thessaloniki, 51–58, 2008.
Groenemeijer, P. and van Delden, A.: Sounding-derived parameters in the vicinity of large hail and tornadoes in The Netherlands, Atmos. Res., 67–68, 273–299, 2007.
Groenemeijer, P., Corsmeier, U., and Kottmeier, Ch.: The development of tornadic storms on the cold side of a front favoured by local enhancement of moisture and CAPE, Atmos. Res., 100, 765–781, 2011.
Hannesen, R., Dotzek, N., Gysi, H., and Beheng, K. D.: Case study of a tornado in the Upper Rhine valley, Meteorol. Z., 7, 163–170, 1998.
Hart, J. A. and Korotky, W.: The SHARP workstation v1.50 users guide. National Weather Service, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce, 30 pp., 1991.
Homar, V., Gaya, M., Romero, R., Ramis, C., and Alonso, S.: Tornadoes over complex terrain: an analysis of the 28th August 1999 tornadic event in Eastern Spain, Atmos. Res., 67–68, 301–317, 2003.
Houze, R. A. Jr.: Cloud Dynamics, Academic Press Inc, San Diego, California, 1993.
Iacono, M. J., Delamere, J. S., Mlawer, E. J., Shephard, M. W., Clough, S. A., and Collins, W. D.:: Radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases: Calculations with the AER radiative transfer models, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D13103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD009944, 2008.
Janjic, Z. I.: The surface layer in the NCEP Eta Model, Eleventh Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, 19–23 August, American Meteorological Society, Norfolk, VA, 354–355, 1996.
Janjic, Z. I.: Nonsingular Implementation of the Mellor–Yamada Level 2.5 Scheme in the NCEP Meso model, NCEP Office Note, 437, 61 pp., 2002
Johns, R. H. and Doswell, C. A. III: Severe local storms forecasting, Weather Forecast., 7, 588–612, 1992.
Johns, R. H., Davies, M., and Leftwich, P. M.: Some wind and instability parameters associated with strong and violent tornadoes. Part II: Variations in the combinations of wind and instability parameters. The Tornado: Its Structure, Dynamics, Hazards, and Prediction, Amer. Geophys. Union, Geophys. Monogr., 79, 583–590, 1993.
Kain, J. S.: The Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization: An update, J. Appl. Meteorol., 43, 170–181, 2004.
Katsafados, P., Mavromatidis, E., Papadopoulos, A., and Pytharoulis, I.: Numerical simulation of a deep Mediterranean storm and its sensitivity on sea surface temperature, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1233–1246, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-1233-2011, 2011.
Koletsis, I., Lagouvardos, K., Kotroni, V., and Bartzokas, A.: Numerical study of a downslope windstorm in Northwestern Greece, Atmos. Res., 94, 178–193, 2009.
Koletsis, I., Lagouvardos, K., Kotroni, V., and Bartzokas, A.: The interaction of northern wind flow with the complex topography of Crete Island – Part 2: Numerical study, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 1115–1127, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-1115-2010, 2010.
Liu, J., Bray, M., and Han, D.: Sensitivity of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to downscaling ratios and storm types in rainfall simulation, Hydrol. Process., 26, 3012–3031, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8247, 2012.
Louka, P., Galanis, G., Siebert, N., Kariniotakis, G., Katsafados, P., Pytharoulis, I., and Kallos, G.: Improvements in wind speed forecasts for wind power prediction purposes using Kalman filtering, J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerod., 96, 2348–2362, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2008.03.13, 2008.
Markowski, P. M., Straka, J. M., Rasmussen, E. N., and Blanchard, E. N.: Variability of Storm-Relative Helicity during VORTEX, Mon. Weather Rev., 126, 2959–2971, 1998.
Mass, C., Ovens, D., Westrick, K., and Colle B.: Does increasing horizontal resolution produce more skilful forecasts?, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 83, 407–430, 2002.
Matsangouras, J. T. and Nastos, P. T.: The 27 July 2002 tornado event in Athens, Greece, Adv. Sci. Res., 4, 9–13, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-4-9-2010, 2010.
Matsangouras, I. T., Nastos, P. T., and Nikolakis, D.: Study of meteorological conditions related to the tornado activity on 25-3-2009 over NW Peloponnesus, Greece, in: Proc. 10th International Conference on Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Physics (COMECAP2010), 25–38 May 2010, Patras, Greece, 417–425, 2010 (in Greek).
Matsangouras, I. T., Nastos, P. T., and Pytharoulis, I.: Synoptic-mesoscale analysis and numerical modeling of a tornado event on 12 February 2010 in northern Greece, Adv. Sci. Res., 6, 187–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-6-187-2011, 2011a.
Matsangouras, I. T., Nastos, P. T., and Sioutas, M. V.: 300 Years historical records of tornadoes, waterspouts and funnel clouds over Greece, in: 6th European Conference on Severe Storms (ECSS 2011), Palma de Mallorca Balearic Islands, Spain, 3–7 October 2011, ECSS2011-215, 2011b.
Matsangouras, I. T., Nastos, P. T., and Pytharoulis, I.: Numerical Investigation of the Role of Topography in Tornado Events in Greece, in: Advances in Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Physics, edited by: Helmis, C. G. and Nastos, P. T., Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 209–215, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-29172-2\textunderscore 30, 2012.
Matsangouras, I. T., Nastos, P. T., Bluestein, H. B., and Sioutas, M. V.: A climatology of tornadic activity over Greece based on historical records, Int. J. Climatol., 34, 2538–2555, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3857, 2014.
Meaden, G.: Tornadoes in Britain: their intensities and distribution in space and time, J. Meteorol., 1, 242–251, 1976.
Mellor, G. L. and Yamada, T.: Development of a turbulence closure model for geophysical fluid problems, Rev. Geophys., 20, 851–875, https://doi.org/10.1029/RG020i004p00851, 1982.
Miao, J.-F., Kroon, L. J. M., VilaGuerau de Arellano, J., and Holtslag, A. A. M.: Impacts of topography and land degradation on the sea breeze over eastern Spain, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 84, 157–170, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-002-0579-1, 2003.
Miglietta, M. M. and Regano, A.: An observational and numerical study of a flash-flood event over south-eastern Italy, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 8, 1417–1430, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-8-1417-2008, 2008.
Moncrieff, M. W. and Green, J. S. A.: The propagation and transfer properties of steady convective overturning in shear, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 98, 336–352, 1972.
Monteverdi, J. P., Doswell, C. A. III, and Lipari, G. S.: Shear parameter thresholds for forecasting tornadic thunderstorms in northern and central California, Weather Forecast., 18, 357–370, 2003.
Nastos, P. T. and Matsangouras, J. T.: Tornado activity in Greece within the 20th century, Adv. Geosci., 26, 49–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-26-49-2010, 2010.
Nastos, P. T. and Matsangouras, I. T.: Composite Mean and Anomaly of Synoptic Conditions for Tornadic Days over North Ionian Sea (NW Greece), in: Advances in Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Physics, edited by: Helmis, C. G. and Nastos, P. T., Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 639–645, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-29172-2\textunderscore 91, 2012.
Paul, F.: A developing inventory of tornadoes in France, Atmos. Res., 56, 269–280, 2000.
Paul, J. F.: An inventory of tornadoes in France, Weather, 54, 217–219, 1999.
Papadopoulos, A. and Katsafados, P.: Verification of operational weather forecasts from the POSEIDON system across the Eastern Mediterranean, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 1299–1306, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-1299-2009, 2009.
Pytharoulis, I.: High-resolution operational numerical weather forecasts for agrometeorological applications, in: 6th Hellenic Conference of Agricultural Engineering, 8–10 October, Thessaloniki, Greece, 75–82, 2009 (in Greek).
Rasmussen, E. N.: Refined supercell and tornado forecast parameters, Weather Forecast., 18, 530–535, 2003.
Rasmussen, E. N. and Blanchard, D. O.: A baseline climatology of sounding-derived super-cell and tornado forecast parameters, Weather Forecast., 13, 1148–1164, 1998.
Schaefer, J. T.: Severe thunderstorm fore-casting: A historical perspective, Weather Forecast., 1, 164–189, 1986.
Shafer, C. M., Mercer, A. E., Doswell, C. A. III, Richman, M. B., and Leslie, L. M.: Evaluation of WRF Forecasts of Tornadic and Nontornadic Outbreaks When Initialized with Synoptic-Scale Input, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 1250–1271, 2009.
Sioutas, M. V.: A tornado and waterspout climatology for Greece, Atmos. Res., 100, 344–356, 2011.
Sioutas, M. V., Nastos, P. T., Matsangouras, I. T., and Floca, H. A.: Meteorological Conditions Associated with Strong Tornadoes in Greece, in: Advances in Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Physics, edited by: Helmis, C. G. and Nastos, P. T., Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 293–299, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-29172-2\textunderscore 42, 2012.
Skamarock, W. C., Klemp, J. B., Dudhia, J., Gill, D. O., Barker, D. M., Duda, M. G., Huang, X.-Y., Wang, W., and Powers, J.G.: A description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3, NCAR/TN-475, 2008.
Stathopoulos, C., Kaperoni, A., Galanis, G., and Kallos, G.: Wind power prediction based on numerical and statistical models, J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerod., 112, 25–38, 2013.
Thompson, R. L., Edwards, R., Hart, J. A., Elmore, K. L., and Markowski, P.: Close proximity soundings within supercell environments obtained from the Rapid Update Cycle, Weather Forecast., 18, 1243–1261, 2003.
Wang, W., Bruyere, C., Duda, M., Dudhia, J., Gill, D., Lin, H.-C., Michalakes, J., Rizvi, S., Zhang, X., Beezley, J., Coen, J., and Mandel, J.: ARW Version 3 Modeling System User's Guide, NCAR-MMM, 352 pp., 2010.
Weisman, M. L. and Klemp, J. B.: The dependence of numerically simulated convective storms on vertical wind shear and buoyancy, Mon. Weather Rev., 110, 504–520, 1982.
Weisman, M. L. and Klemp, J. B.: The structure and classification of numerically simulated convective storms in directionally varying wind shear, Mon. Weather Rev., 112, 2479–2498, 1984.
Special issue
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint