Articles | Volume 25, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-991-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-991-2025
Research article
 | 
05 Mar 2025
Research article |  | 05 Mar 2025

Towards a harmonized operational earthquake forecasting model for Europe

Marta Han, Leila Mizrahi, and Stefan Wiemer

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Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Cited articles

Bayona, J. A., Savran, W. H., Iturrieta, P., Gerstenberger, M. C., Graham, K. M., Marzocchi, W., Schorlemmer, D., and Werner, M. J.: Are Regionally Calibrated Seismicity Models More Informative than Global Models? Insights from California, New Zealand, and Italy, Seismic Record, 3, 86–95, https://doi.org/10.1785/0320230006, 2023. a
Becker, J., Gerstenberger, M., Potter, S., Christophersen, A., and McBride, S.: Effective Communication of Operational Earthquake Forecasts (OEFs): Findings from a New Zealand Workshop, Lower Hutt, NZ, GNS Science report 2016/45, GNS Science, p. 49, https://doi.org/10.21420/G2DH00, 2018. a
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Crowley, H., Dabbeek, J., Despotaki, V., Rodrigues, D., Martins, L., Silva, V., Romão, X., Pereira, N., Weatherill, G., and Danciu, L.: European seismic risk model (ESRM20), EFEHR Technical Report, 2, V1.0.1, 84 pp., https://doi.org/10.7414/EUC-EFEHR-TR002-ESRM20, 2021. a
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Relying on recent accomplishments of collecting and harmonizing data by the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) and leveraging advancements in state-of-the-art earthquake forecasting methods, we develop a harmonized earthquake forecasting model for Europe. We propose several model variants and test them on training data for consistency and on a 7-year testing period against each other, as well as against both a time-independent benchmark and a global time-dependent benchmark.

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