Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 25, issue 3
Articles | Volume 25, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-991-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-991-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 25, issue 3
Research article
 | 
05 Mar 2025
Research article |  | 05 Mar 2025

Towards a harmonized operational earthquake forecasting model for Europe

Marta Han, Leila Mizrahi, and Stefan Wiemer

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Latest update: 23 Apr 2025
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Short summary
Relying on recent accomplishments of collecting and harmonizing data by the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) and leveraging advancements in state-of-the-art earthquake forecasting methods, we develop a harmonized earthquake forecasting model for Europe. We propose several model variants and test them on training data for consistency and on a 7-year testing period against each other, as well as against both a time-independent benchmark and a global time-dependent benchmark.

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Harmonized seismic hazard and risk assessment for Europe
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