Towards a harmonized operational earthquake forecasting model for Europe

Han, Marta; Mizrahi, Leila; Wiemer, Stefan

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-991-2025

Articles | Volume 25, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-991-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

Harmonized seismic hazard and risk assessment for Europe

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-991-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 25, issue 3

Research article

|

05 Mar 2025

Research article |

| 05 Mar 2025

Towards a harmonized operational earthquake forecasting model for Europe

Marta Han, Leila Mizrahi, and Stefan Wiemer

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-991-2025-supplement

Data sets

EMEC-2021 - The European-Mediterranean Earthquake Catalogue – Version 2021 Steffi Lammers et al. https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.EMEC.2021.001

The 2020 update of the European Seismic Hazard Model-ESHM20: Model Overview L. Danciu et al. https://doi.org/10.12686/a15

Model code and software

lmizrahi/etas: ETAS with fit visualization Leila Mizrahi et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7584575

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Short summary

Relying on recent accomplishments of collecting and harmonizing data by the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) and leveraging advancements in state-of-the-art earthquake forecasting methods, we develop a harmonized earthquake forecasting model for Europe. We propose several model variants and test them on training data for consistency and on a 7-year testing period against each other, as well as against both a time-independent benchmark and a global time-dependent benchmark.