Articles | Volume 22, issue 7
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2401–2418, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2401-2022

Special issue: Drought vulnerability, risk, and impact assessments: bridging...

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2401–2418, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2401-2022
Research article
21 Jul 2022
Research article | 21 Jul 2022

Predicting drought and subsidence risks in France

Arthur Charpentier et al.

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Cited articles

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Antoni, V., Janvier, F., and Albizzati, C.: Retrait-gonflement des argiles: plus de 4 millions de maisons potentiellement très exposées, Commissariat général au développement durable, 122, https://notre-environnement.gouv.fr/rapport-sur-l-etat-de-l-environnement/themes-ree/risques-nuisances-pollutions/risques-naturels/autres-risques-naturels/article/le-retrait-gonflement-des-argiles (last access: July 2022), 2017. a
Association Française de l'Assurance (AFA): Risques climatiques: quel impact sur l'assurance contre les aléas naturels à l'horizon 2040?, https://www.franceassureurs.fr/wp-content/uploads/VF_France-Assureurs_Impact-du-changement-climatique-2050.pdf (last access: July 2022), 2015. a
Bergmeir, C., Hyndman, R. J., and Koo, B.: A note on the validity of cross-validation for evaluating autoregressive time series prediction, Comput. Stat. Data An., 120, 70–83, 2018. a
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Predicting consequences of drought episodes is complex, all the more when focusing on subsidence. We use 20 years of insurer data to derive a model to predict both the intensity and the severity of such events, using geophysical and climatic information located in space and time.
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