Articles | Volume 22, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1863-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1863-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Jun 2022
Research article |
| 07 Jun 2022
| 07 Jun 2022
Generating reliable estimates of tropical-cyclone-induced coastal hazards along the Bay of Bengal for current and future climates using synthetic tracks
Tim Willem Bart Leijnse
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Deltares, Delft, 2600MH, the Netherlands
Alessio Giardino
Deltares, Delft, 2600MH, the Netherlands
Asian Development Bank, 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550, Metro Manila, the Philippines
Kees Nederhoff
Deltares USA, 8601 Georgia Ave., Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA
Sofia Caires
Deltares, Delft, 2600MH, the Netherlands
Related authors
Kees Nederhoff, Maarten van Ormondt, Jay Veeramony, Ap van Dongeren, Jose Antolínez, Tim Leijnse, and Dano Roelvink
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2341, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2341, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting tropical cyclones and their flooding impact is challenging. Our research introduces the Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Framework (TC-FF), enhancing cyclone predictions despite uncertainties. TC-FF generates global wind and flood scenarios, valuable even in data-limited regions. Applied to cases like Cyclone Idai, it showcases potential in bettering disaster preparation, marking progress in handling cyclone threats.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Tim Leijnse, Hiroaki Ikeuchi, Dai Yamazaki, Sanne Muis, Job Dullaart, Arjen Haag, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 823–846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In coastal deltas, flooding can occur from interactions between coastal, riverine, and pluvial drivers, so-called compound flooding. Global models however ignore these interactions. We present a framework for automated and reproducible compound flood modeling anywhere globally and validate it for two historical events in Mozambique with good results. The analysis reveals differences in compound flood dynamics between both events related to the magnitude of and time lag between drivers.
Mariana C. A. Clare, Tim W. B. Leijnse, Robert T. McCall, Ferdinand L. M. Diermanse, Colin J. Cotter, and Matthew D. Piggott
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2491–2515, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2491-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing uncertainty is computationally expensive because it requires multiple runs of expensive models. We take the novel approach of assessing uncertainty from coastal flooding using a multilevel multifidelity (MLMF) method which combines the efficiency of less accurate models with the accuracy of more expensive models at different resolutions. This significantly reduces the computational cost but maintains accuracy, making previously unfeasible real-world studies possible.
Kees Nederhoff, Jasper Hoek, Tim Leijnse, Maarten van Ormondt, Sofia Caires, and Alessio Giardino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 861–878, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-861-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-861-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The design of coastal protection affected by tropical cyclones is often based solely on the analysis of historical tropical cyclones (TCs). The simulation of numerous synthetic TC tracks based on historical data can overcome this limitation. In this paper, a new method for the generation of synthetic TC tracks is proposed, called the Tropical Cyclone Wind Statistical Estimation Tool (TCWiSE). TCWiSE can simulate thousands of tracks and wind fields in any oceanic basin based on any data source.
Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Maarten Pronk, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Roshanka Ranasinghe
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-313, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-313, 2023
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
The shape of the coast, the intensity of waves, the height of the water levels, the presence of people or critical infrastructure and the land use are important information to assess the vulnerability of the coast to coastal hazards. Here we provide 80 indicators of this kind, at consistent locations along the global ice-free coastline using open-access global datasets. These can be valuable for quick assessments of the vulnerability of the coast and at data-poor locations.
Kees Nederhoff, Maarten van Ormondt, Jay Veeramony, Ap van Dongeren, Jose Antolínez, Tim Leijnse, and Dano Roelvink
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2341, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2341, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting tropical cyclones and their flooding impact is challenging. Our research introduces the Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Framework (TC-FF), enhancing cyclone predictions despite uncertainties. TC-FF generates global wind and flood scenarios, valuable even in data-limited regions. Applied to cases like Cyclone Idai, it showcases potential in bettering disaster preparation, marking progress in handling cyclone threats.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Tim Leijnse, Hiroaki Ikeuchi, Dai Yamazaki, Sanne Muis, Job Dullaart, Arjen Haag, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 823–846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In coastal deltas, flooding can occur from interactions between coastal, riverine, and pluvial drivers, so-called compound flooding. Global models however ignore these interactions. We present a framework for automated and reproducible compound flood modeling anywhere globally and validate it for two historical events in Mozambique with good results. The analysis reveals differences in compound flood dynamics between both events related to the magnitude of and time lag between drivers.
Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Jose A. A. Antolinez, and Roshanka Ranasinghe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3897–3915, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3897-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3897-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sandy dunes protect the hinterland from coastal flooding during storms. Thus, models that can efficiently predict dune erosion are critical for coastal zone management and early warning systems. Here we develop such a model for the Dutch coast based on machine learning techniques, allowing for dune erosion estimations in a matter of seconds relative to available computationally expensive models. Validation of the model against benchmark data and observations shows good agreement.
Mariana C. A. Clare, Tim W. B. Leijnse, Robert T. McCall, Ferdinand L. M. Diermanse, Colin J. Cotter, and Matthew D. Piggott
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2491–2515, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2491-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing uncertainty is computationally expensive because it requires multiple runs of expensive models. We take the novel approach of assessing uncertainty from coastal flooding using a multilevel multifidelity (MLMF) method which combines the efficiency of less accurate models with the accuracy of more expensive models at different resolutions. This significantly reduces the computational cost but maintains accuracy, making previously unfeasible real-world studies possible.
Kees Nederhoff, Li Erikson, Anita Engelstad, Peter Bieniek, and Jeremy Kasper
The Cryosphere, 16, 1609–1629, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1609-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1609-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Diminishing sea ice is impacting waves across the Arctic region. Recent work shows the effect of the sea ice on offshore waves; however, effects within the nearshore are less known. This study characterizes the wave climate in the central Beaufort Sea coast of Alaska. We show that the reduction of sea ice correlates strongly with increases in the average and extreme waves. However, found trends deviate from offshore, since part of the increase in energy is dissipated before reaching the shore.
Kees Nederhoff, Jasper Hoek, Tim Leijnse, Maarten van Ormondt, Sofia Caires, and Alessio Giardino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 861–878, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-861-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-861-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The design of coastal protection affected by tropical cyclones is often based solely on the analysis of historical tropical cyclones (TCs). The simulation of numerous synthetic TC tracks based on historical data can overcome this limitation. In this paper, a new method for the generation of synthetic TC tracks is proposed, called the Tropical Cyclone Wind Statistical Estimation Tool (TCWiSE). TCWiSE can simulate thousands of tracks and wind fields in any oceanic basin based on any data source.
Matteo U. Parodi, Alessio Giardino, Ap van Dongeren, Stuart G. Pearson, Jeremy D. Bricker, and Ad J. H. M. Reniers
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2397–2414, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2397-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2397-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate sources of uncertainty in coastal flood risk assessment in São Tomé and Príncipe, a small island developing state. We find that, for the present-day scenario, uncertainty from depth damage functions and digital elevation models can be more significant than that related to the estimation of significant wave height or storm surge level. For future scenarios (year 2100), sea level rise prediction becomes the input with the strongest impact on coastal flood damage estimate.
Kees Nederhoff, Alessio Giardino, Maarten van Ormondt, and Deepak Vatvani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2359–2370, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2359-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2359-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclone wind models are often used in engineering applications. However, these models lack the required accuracy when the size of the tropical cyclone is not known. In this paper, new relationships are derived to describe parameters affecting the size. These relationships are formulated using observed data and make it possible to estimate tropical cyclone size and to use this information in tropical cyclone wind models to obtain more reliable estimates of the tropical cyclone winds.
Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Sandra Gaytan-Aguilar, and Roshanka Ranasinghe
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1515–1529, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1515-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1515-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This dataset provides the spatial distribution of nearshore slopes at a resolution of 1 km along the global coastline. The calculation was based on available global topo-bathymetric datasets and ocean wave reanalysis. The calculated slopes show skill in capturing the spatial variability of the nearshore slopes when compared against local observations. The importance of this variability is presented with a global coastal retreat assessment for an arbitrary sea level rise scenario.
Pedro D. Barrera Crespo, Erik Mosselman, Alessio Giardino, Anke Becker, Willem Ottevanger, Mohamed Nabi, and Mijail Arias-Hidalgo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2763–2778, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2763-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2763-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Guayaquil, the commercial capital of Ecuador, is located along the Guayas River. The city is among the most vulnerable cities to future flooding ascribed to climate change. Fluvial sedimentation is seen as one of the factors contributing to flooding. This paper describes the dominant processes in the river and the effects of past interventions in the overall sediment budget. This is essential to plan and design effective mitigation measures to face the latent risk that threatens Guayaquil.
Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Dimitrios Bouziotas, Alessio Giardino, Laurens M. Bouwer, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Evangelos Voukouvalas, and Luc Feyen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2127–2142, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2127-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2127-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We examine sources of epistemic uncertainty in coastal flood risk models. We find that uncertainty from sea level estimations can be higher than that related to greenhouse gas emissions or climate prediction errors. Of comparable importance is information on coastal protection levels and the topography. In the absence of large datasets with sufficient resolution and accuracy, the last two factors are the main bottlenecks in terms of estimating coastal flood risks at large scales.
Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Evangelos Voukouvalas, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Francesco Dottori, Alessio Giardino, Dimitrios Bouziotas, Alessandra Bianchi, Peter Salamon, and Luc Feyen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1841–1853, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1841-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1841-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal flooding has severe socioeconomic impacts that are projected to increase under the changing climate. The present contribution reports on efforts towards a new methodology for mapping coastal flood hazard at European scale, combining the contribution of waves, improved inundation modeling and an open, physics-based framework which can be constantly upgraded whenever new and more accurate data become available.
Related subject area
Sea, Ocean and Coastal Hazards
Hurricane Irma: an unprecedented event over the last 3700 years? Geomorphological changes and sedimentological record in Codrington Lagoon, Barbuda
Bayesian extreme value analysis of extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast using historical information
Storm characteristics influence nitrogen removal in an urban estuarine environment
A new European coastal flood database for low–medium intensity events
Boulder transport and wave height of a seventeenth-century South China Sea tsunami on Penghu Islands, Taiwan
A wave-resolving modeling study of rip current variability, rip hazard, and swimmer escape strategies on an embayed beach
Human displacements from Tropical Cyclone Idai attributable to climate change
Three decades of coastal subsidence in the slow-moving Nice Côte d'Azur Airport area (France) revealed by InSAR (interferometric synthetic-aperture radar): insights into the deformation mechanism
Modelling extreme water levels using intertidal topography and bathymetry derived from multispectral satellite images
Regional assessment of extreme sea levels and associated coastal flooding along the German Baltic Sea coast
Joint probability analysis of storm surges and waves caused by tropical cyclones for the estimation of protection standard: a case study on the eastern coast of the Leizhou Peninsula and the island of Hainan in China
Meteotsunami in the United Kingdom: the hidden hazard
Climate-induced storminess forces major increases in future storm surge hazard in the South China Sea region
Assessing Typhoon Soulik-induced morphodynamics over the Mokpo coastal region in South Korea based on a geospatial approach
Bayesian hierarchical modelling of sea-level extremes in the Finnish coastal region
Assessing the coastal hazard of Medicane Ianos through ensemble modelling
A predictive equation for wave setup using genetic programming
Contribution of solitons to enhanced rogue wave occurrence in shallow depths: a case study in the southern North Sea
Proposal for a new meteotsunami intensity index
Compound flood events: analysing the joint occurrence of extreme river discharge events and storm surges in northern and central Europe
Improvements to the detection and analysis of external surges in the North Sea
Optimal probabilistic placement of facilities using a surrogate model for 3D tsunami simulations
Enabling dynamic modelling of coastal flooding by defining storm tide hydrographs
The role of preconditioning for extreme storm surges in the western Baltic Sea
Freak wave events in 2005–2021: statistics and analysis of favourable wave and wind conditions
Probabilistic projections and past trends of sea level rise in Finland
The effect of deep ocean currents on ocean- bottom seismometers records
Total water levels along the South Atlantic Bight during three along-shelf propagating tropical cyclones: relative contributions of storm surge and wave runup
An interdisciplinary agent-based evacuation model: integrating the natural environment, built environment, and social system for community preparedness and resilience
Coastal extreme sea levels in the Caribbean Sea induced by tropical cyclones
Characteristics of consecutive tsunamis and resulting tsunami behaviors in southern Taiwan induced by the Hengchun earthquake doublet on 26 December 2006
Potential tsunami hazard of the southern Vanuatu subduction zone: tectonics, case study of the Matthew Island tsunami of 10 February 2021 and implication in regional hazard assessment
Detecting anomalous sea-level states in North Sea tide gauge data using an autoassociative neural network
Observations of extreme wave runup events on the US Pacific Northwest coast
Warning water level determination and its spatial distribution in coastal areas of China
A global open-source database of flood-protection levees on river deltas (openDELvE)
Hazard assessment and hydrodynamic, morphodynamic, and hydrological response to Hurricane Gamma and Hurricane Delta on the northern Yucatán Peninsula
Estimating dune erosion at the regional scale using a meta-model based on neural networks
Simulation of tsunami induced by a submarine landslide in a glaciomarine margin: the case of Storfjorden LS-1 (southwestern Svalbard Islands)
Multi-hazard analysis of flood and tsunamis on the western Mediterranean coast of Turkey
Importance of non-stationary analysis for assessing extreme sea levels under sea level rise
Wind-wave characteristics and extremes along the Emilia-Romagna coast
Partitioning the contributions of dependent offshore forcing conditions in the probabilistic assessment of future coastal flooding
Identification and ranking of subaerial volcanic tsunami hazard sources in Southeast Asia
Modelling geographical and built-environment attributes as predictors of human vulnerability during tsunami evacuations: a multi-case-study and paths to improvement
Modelling the sequential earthquake–tsunami response of coastal road embankment infrastructure
Historical tsunamis of Taiwan in the 18th century: the 1781 Jiateng Harbor flooding and 1782 tsunami event
Multilevel multifidelity Monte Carlo methods for assessing uncertainty in coastal flooding
Reconstruction of wind and surge of the 1906 storm tide at the German North Sea coast
Developing a framework for the assessment of current and future flood risk in Venice, Italy
Maude Biguenet, Eric Chaumillon, Pierre Sabatier, Antoine Bastien, Emeline Geba, Fabien Arnaud, Thibault Coulombier, and Nathalie Feuillet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3761–3788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3761-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work documents the impact of Hurricane Irma (2017) on the Codrington barrier and lagoon on Barbuda Island. Irma caused two wide breaches in the sandy barrier, which remained unopened for 250 years. The thick and extensive sand sheet at the top of the lagoon fill was attributed to Irma. This unique deposit in a 3700-year record confirms Irma's exceptional character. This case study illustrates the consequences of high-intensity hurricanes in low-lying islands in a global warming context.
Leigh Richard MacPherson, Arne Arns, Svenja Fischer, Fernando Javier Méndez, and Jürgen Jensen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3685–3701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Efficient adaptation planning for coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels requires accurate assessments of the underlying hazard. Tide-gauge data alone are often insufficient for providing the desired accuracy but may be supplemented with historical information. We estimate extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast and show that relying solely on tide-gauge data leads to underestimations. Incorporating historical information leads to improved estimates with reduced uncertainties.
Anne Margaret H. Smiley, Suzanne P. Thompson, Nathan S. Hall, and Michael F. Piehler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3635–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Floodwaters can deliver reactive nitrogen to sensitive aquatic systems and diminish water quality. We assessed the nitrogen removal capabilities of flooded habitats and urban landscapes. Differences in processing rates across land cover treatments and between nutrient treatments suggest that abundance and spatial distributions of habitats, as well as storm characteristics, influence landscape-scale nitrogen removal. Results have important implications for coastal development and climate change.
Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Enrico Duo, Juan Montes Perez, Paulo Cabrita, Paola Souto Ceccon, Véra Gastal, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3585–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing coastal hazards is crucial to mitigate flooding disasters. In this regard, coastal flood databases are valuable tools. This paper describes a new coastal flood map catalogue covering the entire European coastline, as well as the methodology to build it and its accuracy. The catalogue focuses on frequent extreme events and relies on synthetic scenarios estimated from local storm conditions. Flood-prone areas and regions sensitive to storm duration and water level peak were identified.
Neng-Ti Yu, Cheng-Hao Lu, I-Chin Yen, Jia-Hong Chen, Jiun-Yee Yen, and Shyh-Jeng Chyi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3525–3542, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A paleotsunami deposit of cliff-top basalt debris was identified on the Penghu Islands in the southern Taiwan Strait and related to the 1661 earthquake in southwest Taiwan. A minimum wave height of 3.2 m is estimated to have rotated the biggest boulder for over 30 m landwards onto the cliff top at 2.5 m a.s.l. The event must have been huge compared to the 1994 M 6.4 earthquake with the ensuing 0.4 m high tsunami in the same area, validating the intimidating tsunami risks in the South China Sea.
Ye Yuan, Huaiwei Yang, Fujiang Yu, Yi Gao, Benxia Li, and Chuang Xing
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3487–3507, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3487-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3487-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rip currents are narrow jets of offshore-directed flow that originated in the surf zone, which can take swimmers of all ability levels into deeper water unawares. In this study, a 1 m fine-resolution wave-resolving model was configured to study rip current variability and the optimal swimmer escape strategies. Multiple factors contribute to the survival of swimmers. However, for weak-to-moderate rip and longshore currents, swimming onshore consistently seems to be the most successful strategy.
Benedikt Mester, Thomas Vogt, Seth Bryant, Christian Otto, Katja Frieler, and Jacob Schewe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3467–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In 2019, Cyclone Idai displaced more than 478 000 people in Mozambique. In our study, we use coastal flood modeling and satellite imagery to construct a counterfactual cyclone event without the effects of climate change. We show that 12 600–14 900 displacements can be attributed to sea level rise and the intensification of storm wind speeds due to global warming. Our impact attribution study is the first one on human displacement and one of very few for a low-income country.
Olivier Cavalié, Frédéric Cappa, and Béatrice Pinel-Puysségur
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3235–3246, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3235-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3235-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal areas are fragile ecosystems that face multiple hazards. In this study, we measured the downward motion of the Nice Côte d'Azur Airport (France) that was built on reclaimed area and found that it has subsided from 16 mm yr-1 in the 1990s to 8 mm yr-1 today. A continuous remote monitoring of the platform will provide key data for a detailed investigation of future subsidence maps, and this contribution will help to evaluate the potential failure of part of the airport platform.
Wagner L. L. Costa, Karin R. Bryan, and Giovanni Coco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3125–3146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3125-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For predicting flooding events at the coast, topo-bathymetric data are essential. However, elevation data can be unavailable. To tackle this issue, recent efforts have centred on the use of satellite-derived topography (SDT) and bathymetry (SDB). This work is aimed at evaluating their accuracy and use for flooding prediction in enclosed estuaries. Results show that the use of SDT and SDB in numerical modelling can produce similar predictions when compared to the surveyed elevation data.
Joshua Kiesel, Marvin Lorenz, Marcel König, Ulf Gräwe, and Athanasios T. Vafeidis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2961–2985, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2961-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2961-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Among the Baltic Sea littoral states, Germany is anticipated to experience considerable damage as a result of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise (SLR). Here we apply a new modelling framework to simulate how flooding along the German Baltic Sea coast may change until 2100 if dikes are not upgraded. We find that the study region is highly exposed to flooding, and we emphasise the importance of current plans to update coastal protection in the future.
Zhang Haixia, Cheng Meng, and Fang Weihua
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2697–2717, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2697-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2697-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Simultaneous storm surge and waves can cause great damage due to cascading effects. Quantitative joint probability analysis is critical to determine their optimal protection design values. The joint probability of the surge and wave for the eastern coasts of Leizhou Peninsula and Hainan are estimated with a Gumbel copula based on 62 years of numerically simulated data, and the optimal design values under various joint return periods are derived using the non-linear programming method.
Clare Lewis, Tim Smyth, David Williams, Jess Neumann, and Hannah Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2531–2546, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2531-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2531-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Meteotsunami are globally occurring water waves initiated by atmospheric disturbances. Previous research has suggested that in the UK, meteotsunami are a rare phenomenon and tend to occur in the summer months. This article presents a revised and updated catalogue of 98 meteotsunami that occurred between 1750 and 2022. Results also demonstrate a larger percentage of winter events and a geographical pattern highlighting the
hotspotregions that experience these events.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, Robert J. Nicholls, and Nadia Bloemendaal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2475–2504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We used a novel database of simulated tropical cyclone tracks to explore whether typhoon-induced storm surges present a future flood risk to low-lying coastal communities around the South China Sea. We found that future climate change is likely to change tropical cyclone behaviour to an extent that this increases the severity and frequency of storm surges to Vietnam, southern China, and Thailand. Consequently, coastal flood defences need to be reviewed for resilience against this future hazard.
Sang-Guk Yum, Moon-Soo Song, and Manik Das Adhikari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2449–2474, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2449-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2449-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study performed analysis on typhoon-induced coastal morphodynamics for the Mokpo coast. Wetland vegetation was severely impacted by Typhoon Soulik, with 87.35 % of shoreline transects experiencing seaward migration. This result highlights the fact that sediment resuspension controls the land alteration process over the typhoon period. The land accretion process dominated during the pre- to post-typhoon periods.
Olle Räty, Marko Laine, Ulpu Leijala, Jani Särkkä, and Milla M. Johansson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2403–2418, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2403-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2403-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We studied annual maximum sea levels in the Finnish coastal region. Our aim was to better quantify the uncertainty in them compared to previous studies. Using four statistical models, we found out that hierarchical models, which shared information on sea-level extremes across Finnish tide gauges, had lower uncertainty in their results in comparison with tide-gauge-specific fits. These models also suggested that the shape of the distribution for extreme sea levels is similar on the Finnish coast.
Christian Ferrarin, Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Marco Bajo, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Elenio Avolio, Diego S. Carrió, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Claudio Sanchez, Platon Patlakas, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2273–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The combined use of meteorological and ocean models enabled the analysis of extreme sea conditions driven by Medicane Ianos, which hit the western coast of Greece on 18 September 2020, flooding and damaging the coast. The large spread associated with the ensemble highlighted the high model uncertainty in simulating such an extreme weather event. The different simulations have been used for outlining hazard scenarios that represent a fundamental component of the coastal risk assessment.
Charline Dalinghaus, Giovanni Coco, and Pablo Higuera
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2157–2169, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2157-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wave setup is a critical component of coastal flooding. Consequently, understanding and being able to predict wave setup is vital to protect coastal resources and the population living near the shore. Here, we applied machine learning to improve the accuracy of present predictors of wave setup. The results show that the new predictors outperform existing formulas demonstrating the capability of machine learning models to provide a physically sound description of wave setup.
Ina Teutsch, Markus Brühl, Ralf Weisse, and Sander Wahls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2053–2073, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2053-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2053-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rogue waves exceed twice the significant wave height. They occur more often than expected in the shallow waters off Norderney. When applying a nonlinear Fourier transform for the Korteweg–de Vries equation to wave data from Norderney, we found differences in the soliton spectra of time series with and without rogue waves. A strongly outstanding soliton in the spectrum indicated an enhanced probability for rogue waves. We could attribute spectral solitons to the measured rogue waves.
Clare Lewis, Tim Smyth, Jess Neumann, and Hannah Cloke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1147, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1147, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Meteotsunami are the result of atmospheric disturbances creating water waves which can impact coastlines causing injury and loss to life and assets. This paper introduces a novel intensity index to allow for the quantification of these events at the shoreline which has the potential to assist in the field of natural hazard assessment. Trialled in the UK with a view to global applicability and to becoming a widely accepted standard in coastal planning, meteotsunami forecasting and early warning.
Philipp Heinrich, Stefan Hagemann, Ralf Weisse, Corinna Schrum, Ute Daewel, and Lidia Gaslikova
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1967–1985, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1967-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1967-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
High seawater levels co-occurring with high river discharges have the potential to cause destructive flooding. For the past decades, the number of such compound events was larger than expected by pure chance for most of the west-facing coasts in Europe. Additionally rivers with smaller catchments showed higher numbers. In most cases, such events were associated with a large-scale weather pattern characterized by westerly winds and strong rainfall.
Alexander Böhme, Birgit Gerkensmeier, Benedikt Bratz, Clemens Krautwald, Olaf Müller, Nils Goseberg, and Gabriele Gönnert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1947–1966, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1947-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1947-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
External surges in the North Sea are caused by low-pressure cells travelling over the northeast Atlantic. They influence extreme water levels on the German coast and have to be considered in the design process of coastal defence structures. This study collects data about external surges from 1995–2020 and analyses their causes, behaviours and potential trends. External surges often occur less than 72 h apart, enabling a single storm surge to be influenced by more than one external surge.
Kenta Tozato, Shuji Moriguchi, Shinsuke Takase, Yu Otake, Michael R. Motley, Anawat Suppasri, and Kenjiro Terada
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1891–1909, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1891-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1891-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a framework that efficiently investigates the optimal placement of facilities probabilistically based on advanced numerical simulation. Surrogate models for the numerical simulation are constructed using a mode decomposition technique. Monte Carlo simulations using the surrogate models are performed to evaluate failure probabilities. Using the results of the Monte Carlo simulations and the genetic algorithm, optimal placements can be investigated probabilistically.
Job C. M. Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Hans de Moel, Philip J. Ward, Dirk Eilander, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1847–1862, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal flooding is driven by storm surges and high tides and can be devastating. To gain an understanding of the threat posed by coastal flooding and to identify areas that are especially at risk, now and in the future, it is crucial to accurately model coastal inundation and assess the coastal flood hazard. Here, we present a global dataset with hydrographs that represent the typical evolution of an extreme sea level. These can be used to model coastal inundation more accurately.
Elin Andrée, Jian Su, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Martin Drews, Martin Stendel, and Kristine Skovgaard Madsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1817–1834, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1817-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1817-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
When natural processes interact, they may compound each other. The combined effect can amplify extreme sea levels, such as when a storm occurs at a time when the water level is already higher than usual. We used numerical modelling of a record-breaking storm surge in 1872 to show that other prior sea-level conditions could have further worsened the outcome. Our research highlights the need to consider the physical context of extreme sea levels in measures to reduce coastal flood risk.
Ekaterina Didenkulova, Ira Didenkulova, and Igor Medvedev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1653–1663, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1653-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1653-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper is dedicated to freak wave accidents which happened in the world ocean in 2005–2021 and that were described in mass media sources. The database accounts for 429 events, all of which resulted in ship or coastal and offshore structure damage and/or human losses. In agreement with each freak wave event, we put background wave and wind conditions extracted from the climate reanalysis ERA5. We analyse their statistics and discuss the favourable conditions for freak wave occurrence.
Havu Pellikka, Milla M. Johansson, Maaria Nordman, and Kimmo Ruosteenoja
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1613–1630, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1613-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1613-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the rate of past and future sea level rise at the Finnish coast, northeastern Baltic Sea, in 1901–2100. For this analysis, we use tide gauge observations, modelling results, and a probabilistic method to combine information from several sea level rise projections. We provide projections of local mean sea level by 2100 as probability distributions. The results can be used in adaptation planning in various sectors with different risk tolerance, e.g. land use planning or nuclear safety.
Carlos Corela, Afonso Loureiro, José Luis Duarte, Luis Matias, Tiago Rebelo, and Tiago Bartolomeu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1433–1451, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1433-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1433-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We show that ocean-bottom seismometers are controlled by bottom currents, but these are not always a function of the tidal forcing. Instead we suggest that the ocean bottom has a flow regime resulting from two possible contributions: the permanent low-frequency bottom current and the tidal current along the full tidal cycle, between neap and spring tides. In the short-period noise band the ocean current generates harmonic tremors that corrupt the dataset records.
Chu-En Hsu, Katherine Serafin, Xiao Yu, Christie Hegermiller, John C. Warner, and Maitane Olabarrieta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-49, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-49, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed how tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics affect total water level components. We used a numerical model to simulate surges and wind waves in the South Atlantic Bight (SAB) during hurricanes Matthew 2016, Dorian 2019, and Isaias 2020. We compared the water levels along the SAB. As the TCs approached, the water levels were affected by the instantaneous wind speed and the TC locations. To quantify the individual effects of TC properties on water levels, further analysis is required.
Chen Chen, Charles Koll, Haizhong Wang, and Michael K. Lindell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 733–749, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-733-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-733-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper uses empirical-data-based simulation to analyze how to evacuate efficiently from disasters. We find that departure delay time and evacuation decision have significant impacts on evacuation results. Evacuation results are more sensitive to walking speed, departure delay time, evacuation participation, and destinations than to other variables. This model can help authorities to prioritize resources for hazard education, community disaster preparedness, and resilience plans.
Ariadna Martín, Angel Amores, Alejandro Orfila, Tim Toomey, and Marta Marcos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 587–600, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-587-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-587-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the potentially most hazardous phenomena affecting the coasts of the Caribbean Sea. This work simulates the coastal hazards in terms of sea surface elevation and waves that originate through the passage of these events. A set of 1000 TCs have been simulated, obtained from a set of synthetic cyclones that are consistent with present-day climate. Given the large number of hurricanes used, robust values of extreme sea levels and waves are computed along the coasts.
An-Chi Cheng, Anawat Suppasri, Kwanchai Pakoksung, and Fumihiko Imamura
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 447–479, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-447-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-447-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Consecutive earthquakes occurred offshore of southern Taiwan on 26 December 2006. This event revealed unusual tsunami generation and propagation, as well as unexpected consequences for the southern Taiwanese coast (i.e., amplified waves and prolonged durations). This study aims to elucidate the source characteristics of the 2006 tsunami and the important behaviors responsible for tsunami hazards in Taiwan such as wave trapping and shelf resonance.
Jean Roger, Bernard Pelletier, Aditya Gusman, William Power, Xiaoming Wang, David Burbidge, and Maxime Duphil
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 393–414, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-393-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-393-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
On 10 February 2021 a magnitude 7.7 earthquake occurring at the southernmost part of the Vanuatu subduction zone triggered a regional tsunami that was recorded on many coastal gauges and DART stations of the south-west Pacific region. Beginning with a review of the tectonic setup and its implication in terms of tsunami generation in the region, this study aims to show our ability to reproduce a small tsunami with different types of rupture models and to discuss a larger magnitude 8.2 scenario.
Kathrin Wahle, Emil V. Stanev, and Joanna Staneva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 415–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-415-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-415-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Knowledge of what causes maximum water levels is often key in coastal management. Processes, such as storm surge and atmospheric forcing, alter the predicted tide. Whilst most of these processes are modeled in present-day ocean forecasting, there is still a need for a better understanding of situations where modeled and observed water levels deviate from each other. Here, we will use machine learning to detect such anomalies within a network of sea-level observations in the North Sea.
Chuan Li, H. Tuba Özkan-Haller, Gabriel García Medina, Robert A. Holman, Peter Ruggiero, Treena M. Jensen, David B. Elson, and William R. Schneider
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 107–126, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-107-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-107-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we examine a set of observed extreme, non-earthquake-related and non-landslide-related wave runup events. Runup events with similar characteristics have previously been attributed to trapped waves, atmospheric disturbances, and abrupt breaking of long waves. However, we find that none of these mechanisms were likely at work in the observations we examined. We show that instead, these runup events were more likely due to energetic growth of bound infragravity waves.
Shan Liu, Xianwu Shi, Qiang Liu, Jun Tan, Yuxi Sun, Qingrong Liu, and Haoshuang Guo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 127–138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-127-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-127-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a quantitative method for the determination of warning water levels. The proposed method is a multidimensional scale, centered on the consideration of various factors that characterize various coastlines. The implications of our study are not only scientific, as we provide a method for water level determination that is rooted in the scientific method (and reproducible across various contexts beyond China), but they are also deeply practical.
Jaap H. Nienhuis, Jana R. Cox, Joey O'Dell, Douglas A. Edmonds, and Paolo Scussolini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4087–4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4087-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4087-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Humans build levees to protect themselves against floods. We need to know where they are to correctly predict flooding, for example from sea level rise. Here we have looked through documents to find levees, and checked that they exist using satellite imagery. We developed a global levee map, available at www.opendelve.eu, and we found that 24 % of people in deltas are protected by levees.
Alec Torres-Freyermuth, Gabriela Medellín, Jorge A. Kurczyn, Roger Pacheco-Castro, Jaime Arriaga, Christian M. Appendini, María Eugenia Allende-Arandía, Juan A. Gómez, Gemma L. Franklin, and Jorge Zavala-Hidalgo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4063–4085, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4063-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4063-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Barrier islands in tropical regions are prone to coastal flooding and erosion during hurricane events. The Yucatán coast was impacted by hurricanes Gamma and Delta. Inner shelf, coastal, and inland observations were acquired. Beach morphology changes show alongshore gradients. Flooding occurred on the back barrier due to heavy inland rain and the coastal aquifer's confinement. Modeling systems failed to reproduce the coastal hydrodynamic response due to uncertainties in the boundary conditions.
Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Jose A. A. Antolinez, and Roshanka Ranasinghe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3897–3915, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3897-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3897-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sandy dunes protect the hinterland from coastal flooding during storms. Thus, models that can efficiently predict dune erosion are critical for coastal zone management and early warning systems. Here we develop such a model for the Dutch coast based on machine learning techniques, allowing for dune erosion estimations in a matter of seconds relative to available computationally expensive models. Validation of the model against benchmark data and observations shows good agreement.
María Teresa Pedrosa-González, José Manuel González-Vida, Jesús Galindo-Záldivar, Sergio Ortega, Manuel Jesús Castro, David Casas, and Gemma Ercilla
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3839–3858, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3839-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3839-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The L-ML-HySEA (Landslide Multilayer Hyperbolic Systems and Efficient Algorithms) model of the tsunami triggered by the Storfjorden LS-1 landslide provides new insights into the sliding mechanism and bathymetry controlling the propagation, amplitude values and shoaling effects as well as coastal impact times. This case study provides new perspectives on tsunami hazard assessment in polar margins, where global climatic change and its related ocean warming may contribute to landslide trigger.
Cuneyt Yavuz, Kutay Yilmaz, and Gorkem Onder
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3725–3736, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3725-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3725-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Even if the coincidence of flood and tsunami hazards may be experienced once in a blue moon, it should also be investigated due to the uncertainty of the time of occurrence of these natural hazards. The objective of this study is to reveal a statistical methodology to evaluate the aggregate potential hazard levels due to flood hazards with the presence of earthquake-triggered tsunamis. The proposed methodology is applied to Fethiye city, located on the Western Mediterranean coast of Turkey.
Damiano Baldan, Elisa Coraci, Franco Crosato, Maurizio Ferla, Andrea Bonometto, and Sara Morucci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3663–3677, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3663-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3663-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme-event analysis is widely used to provide information for the design of coastal protection structures. Non-stationarity due to sea level rise can affect such estimates. Using different methods on a long time series of sea level data, we show that estimates of the magnitude of extreme events in the future can be inexact due to relative sea level rise. Thus, considering non-stationarity is important when analyzing extreme-sea-level events.
Umesh Pranavam Ayyappan Pillai, Nadia Pinardi, Ivan Federico, Salvatore Causio, Francesco Trotta, Silvia Unguendoli, and Andrea Valentini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3413–3433, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3413-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents the application of high-resolution coastal modelling for wave hindcasting on the Emilia-Romagna coastal belt. The generated coastal databases which provide an understanding of the prevailing wind-wave characteristics can aid in predicting coastal impacts.
Jeremy Rohmer, Deborah Idier, Remi Thieblemont, Goneri Le Cozannet, and François Bachoc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3167–3182, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3167-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3167-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the influence of wave–wind characteristics, offshore water level and sea level rise (projected up to 2200) on the occurrence of flooding events at Gâvres, French Atlantic coast. Our results outline the overwhelming influence of sea level rise over time compared to the others. By showing the robustness of our conclusions to the errors in the estimation procedure, our approach proves to be valuable for exploring and characterizing uncertainties in assessments of future flooding.
Edgar U. Zorn, Aiym Orynbaikyzy, Simon Plank, Andrey Babeyko, Herlan Darmawan, Ismail Fata Robbany, and Thomas R. Walter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3083–3104, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3083-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3083-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Tsunamis caused by volcanoes are a challenge for warning systems as they are difficult to predict and detect. In Southeast Asia there are many active volcanoes close to the coast, so it is important to identify the most likely volcanoes to cause tsunamis in the future. For this purpose, we developed a point-based score system, allowing us to rank volcanoes by the hazard they pose. The results may be used to improve local monitoring and preparedness in the affected areas.
Jorge León, Alejandra Gubler, and Alonso Ogueda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2857–2878, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2857-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2857-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Our research focuses on how the geophysical characteristics of coastal cities can determine evacuees' vulnerability during a tsunami evacuation. We identify, analyse, and rank some of those essential characteristics by examining seven case studies in Chile through computer-based inundation, evacuation, and statistical regressive modelling. These results could lead to urban planning guidelines to enhance future evacuations and increase resilience to global tsunamis.
Azucena Román-de la Sancha, Rodolfo Silva, Omar S. Areu-Rangel, Manuel Gerardo Verduzco-Zapata, Edgar Mendoza, Norma Patricia López-Acosta, Alexandra Ossa, and Silvia García
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2589–2609, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2589-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2589-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Transport networks in coastal urban areas are vulnerable to seismic events, with damage likely due to both ground motions and tsunami loading. The paper presents an approach that captures the earthquake–tsunami effects on transport infrastructure in a coastal area, taking into consideration the combined strains of the two events. The model is applied to a case in Manzanillo, Mexico, using ground motion records of the 1995 earthquake–tsunami event.
Tien-Chi Liu, Tso-Ren Wu, and Shu-Kun Hsu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2517–2530, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2517-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2517-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The findings from historical reports and numerical studies suggest the 1781 Jiateng Harbor flooding and the 1782 tsunami should be two independent incidents. Local tsunamis generated in southwest Taiwan could be responsible for the 1781 flooding, while the existence of the 1782 tsunami remains doubtful. With the documents of a storm event on 22 May 1782, the possibility that the significant water level of the 1782 tsunami was caused by storm surges or multiple hazards could not be ignored.
Mariana C. A. Clare, Tim W. B. Leijnse, Robert T. McCall, Ferdinand L. M. Diermanse, Colin J. Cotter, and Matthew D. Piggott
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2491–2515, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2491-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing uncertainty is computationally expensive because it requires multiple runs of expensive models. We take the novel approach of assessing uncertainty from coastal flooding using a multilevel multifidelity (MLMF) method which combines the efficiency of less accurate models with the accuracy of more expensive models at different resolutions. This significantly reduces the computational cost but maintains accuracy, making previously unfeasible real-world studies possible.
Elke Magda Inge Meyer, Ralf Weisse, Iris Grabemann, Birger Tinz, and Robert Scholz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2419–2432, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2419-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2419-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The severe storm tide of 13 March 1906 is still one of the most severe storm events for the East Frisian coast. Water levels from this event are considered for designing dike lines. For the first time, we investigate this event with a hydrodynamic model by forcing with atmospheric data from 147 ensemble members from century reanalysis projects and a manual reconstruction of the synoptic situation. Water levels were notably high due to a coincidence of high spring tides and high surge.
Julius Schlumberger, Christian Ferrarin, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, Manuel Andres Diaz Loaiza, Alessandro Antonini, and Sandra Fatorić
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2381–2400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2381-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding has serious impacts on the old town of Venice. This paper presents a framework combining a flood model with a flood-impact model to support improving protection against future floods in Venice despite the recently built MOSE barrier. Applying the framework to seven plausible flood scenarios, it was found that individual protection has a significant damage-mediating effect if the MOSE barrier does not operate as anticipated. Contingency planning thus remains important in Venice.
Cited articles
Alam, M. M., Hossain, M. A., and Shafee, S.:
Frequency of Bay of Bengal cyclonic storms and depressions crossing different coastal zones, Int. J. Climatol., 23, 1119–1125, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.927, 2003.
Appendini, C. M., Pedrozo-Acuña, A., Meza-Padilla, R., Torres-Freyermuth, A., Cerezo-Mota, R., López-González, J., and Ruiz-Salcines, P.:
On the Role of Climate Change on Wind Waves Generated by Tropical Cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico, Coast. Eng. J., 59, 1740001-1–1740001-32, https://doi.org/10.1142/S0578563417400010, 2017.
Becker, J. J., Sandwell, D. T., Smith, W. H. F., Braud, J., Binder, B., Depner, J., Fabre, D., Factor, J., Ingalls, S., Kim, S.-H., Ladner, R., Marks, K., Nelson, S., Pharaoh, A., Trimmer, R., Von Rosenberg, J., Wallace, G., and Weatherall, P.:
Global Bathymetry and Elevation Data at 30 Arc Seconds Resolution: SRTM30_PLUS, Mar. Geod., 32, 355–371, https://doi.org/10.1080/01490410903297766, 2009.
Bloemendaal, N., Haigh, I. D., Moel, H. De, Muis, S., Haarsma, R. J., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.:
Generation of a global synthetic tropical cyclone hazard dataset using STORM, Sci. Data, 7, 40, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0381-2, 2020.
Booij, N., Ris, R. C., and Holthuijsen, L. H.:
A third-generation wave model for coastal regions: 1. Model description and validation, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 7649–7666, https://doi.org/10.1029/98JC02622, 1999.
Caires, S.:
A Comparative Simulation Study of the Annual Maxima and the Peaks-Over-Threshold Methods, J. Offshore Mech. Arct., 138, https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4033563, 2016.
Chiu, S. and Small, C.:
Observations of Cyclone-Induced Storm Surge in Coastal Bangladesh, J. Coastal Res., 321, 1149–1161, https://doi.org/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-15-00030.1, 2016.
Deltares:
Wind Enhancement Scheme for cyclone modelling – User Manual, Version 3.01, Deltares, Delft, 2019.
Deltares: ORCA, Deltares [code], https://www.deltares.nl/en/software/orca/, last access: 31 May 2022a.
Deltares: TCWiSE, Deltares [code], https://www.deltares.nl/en/software/tcwise/, last access: 31 May 2022b.
Deltares:
Delft3D FM Suite, Deltares [code], https://www.deltares.nl/en/software/delft3d-flexible-mesh-suite/, last access: 31 May 2022c.
Deo, A. A., Ganer, D. W., and Nair, G.:
Tropical cyclone activity in global warming scenario, Nat. Hazards, 59, 771–786, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9794-8, 2011.
Dube, S. K., Jain, I., Rao, A. D., and Murty, T. S.:
Storm surge modelling for the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, Nat. Hazards, 51, 3–27, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9397-9, 2009.
Emanuel, K., Ravela, S., Vivant, E., and Risi, C.:
A Statistical Deterministic Approach to Hurricane Risk Assessment, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 87, S1–S5, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-87-3-Emanuel, 2006.
Emanuel, K., Sundararajan, R., and Williams, J.: Hurricanes and Global Warming: Results from Downscaling IPCC AR4 Simulations, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 89, 347–368, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-89-3-347, 2008.
Haigh, I. D., MacPherson, L. R., Mason, M. S., Wijeratne, E. M. S., Pattiaratchi, C. B., Crompton, R. P., and George, S.:
Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia: tropical cyclone-induced storm surges, Clim. Dynam., 42, 139–157, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1653-0, 2014.
Hardy, T. A., McConochie, J. D., and Mason, L. B.:
Modeling tropical cyclone wave population of the Great Barrier Reef, J. Waterw. Port. Coast. Ocean Eng., 129, 104–113, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-950X(2003)129:3(104), 2003.
Harper, B. A., Kepert, J. D., and Ginger, J. D.:
Between Various Wind Averaging Periods in Guidelines for Converting Between Various Wind Averaging Periods in Tropical, World Meteorol. Organ., Geneva, 2010.
Hoarau, K., Bernard, J., and Chalonge, L.:
Intense tropical cyclone activities in the northern Indian Ocean, Int. J. Climatol., 32, 1935–1945, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2406, 2012.
Holland, G.:
A Revised Hurricane Pressure–Wind Model, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 3432–3445, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2395.1, 2008.
Holland, G. J., Belanger, J. I., and Fritz, A.:
A revised model for radial profiles of hurricane winds, Mon. Weather Rev., 138, 4393–4401, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3317.1, 2010.
Islam, T. and Peterson, R. E.:
Climatology of landfalling tropical cyclones in Bangladesh 1877–2003, Nat. Hazards, 48, 115–135, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9252-4, 2009.
James, M. K. and Mason, L. B.:
Synthetic tropical cyclone database, J. Waterw. Port. Coast. Ocean Eng., 131, 181–192, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-950X(2005)131:4(181), 2005.
Kaplan, J. and DeMaria, M.: A Simple Empirical Model for Predicting the Decay of Tropical Cyclone Winds after Landfall, J. Appl. Meteorol., 34, 2499–2512, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1995)034<2499:ASEMFP>2.0.CO;2, 1995.
Karim, M. and Mimura, N.:
Impacts of climate change and sea-level rise on cyclonic storm surge floods in Bangladesh, Global Environ. Chang., 18, 490–500, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.05.002, 2008.
Kernkamp, H. W. J., Van Dam, A., Stelling, G. S., and De Goede, E. D.:
Efficient scheme for the shallow water equations on unstructured grids with application to the Continental Shelf, Ocean Dynam., 61, 1175–1188, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-011-0423-6, 2011.
Kirchhofer, W.:
Classification of European 500 mb patterns, Swiss Meteorological Institute, https://scholar.google.nl/scholar?hl=nl&as_sdt=0,5&q=Classification+of+European+500+mb+patterns+Kirchhofer&btnG=) (last access: 26 March 2020), 1974.
Kishtawal, C. M., Jaiswal, N., Singh, R., and Niyogi, D.:
Tropical cyclone intensification trends during satellite era (1986–2010), Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L10810, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051700, 2012.
Knapp, K. R., Diamond, H. J., Kossin, J. P., Kruk, M. C., and Schreck, C. J.:
International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) Project, Version 4, https://doi.org/10.25921/82ty-9e16, NOAA Natl. Centers Environ. Inf., 2018 (data available at: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ibtracs/, last access: 26 May 2020).
Knutson, T., Camargo, S. J., Chan, J. C. L., Emanuel, K., Ho, C.-H., Kossin, J., Mohapatra, M., Satoh, M., Sugi, M., Walsh, K., and Wu, L.: Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part II: Projected Response to Anthropogenic Warming, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 101, E303–E322, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0194.1, 2020.
Knutson, T. R., McBride, J. L., Chan, J., Emanuel, K., Holland, G., Landsea, C., Held, I., Kossin, J. P., Srivastava, A. K., and Sugi, M.:
Tropical cyclones and climate change, Nat. Geosci., 3, 157–163, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo779, 2010.
Knutson, T. R., Sirutis, J. J., Zhao, M., Tuleya, R. E., Bender, M., Vecchi, G. A., Villarini, G., and Chavas, D.:
Global Projections of Intense Tropical Cyclone Activity for the Late Twenty-First Century from Dynamical Downscaling of CMIP5/RCP4.5 Scenarios, J. Climate, 28, 7203–7224, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0129.1, 2015.
Kossin, J. P., Knapp, K. R., Olander, T. L., and Velden, C. S.:
Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 17, 11975–11980, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1920849117, 2020.
Krien, Y., Testut, L., Islam, A. K. M. S., Bertin, X., Durand, F., Mayet, C., Tazkia, A. R., Becker, M., Calmant, S., Papa, F., Ballu, V., Shum, C. K., and Khan, Z. H.:
Towards improved storm surge models in the northern Bay of Bengal, Cont. Shelf Res., 135, 58–73, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2017.01.014, 2017.
Lee, C. Y., Tippett, M. K., Sobel, A. H., and Camargo, S. J.:
An environmentally forced tropical cyclone hazard model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 10, 223–241, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS001186, 2018.
Leijnse, T., Giardino, A., Nederhoff, K., and Caires, S.: Generating reliable estimates of tropical cyclone induced coastal hazards along the Bay of Bengal for current and future climates using synthetic tracks, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6420739, 2022.
Lin, N., Emanuel, K., Oppenheimer, M., and Vanmarcke, E.:
Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 462–467, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1389, 2012.
Mamnun, N., Bricheno, L. M., and Rashed-Un-Nabi, M.: Forcing ocean model with atmospheric model outputs to simulate storm surge in the Bangladesh coast, Trop. Cyclone Res. Rev., 9, 117–134, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.04.002, 2020.
Marsooli, R., Lin, N., Emanuel, K., and Feng, K.:
Climate change exacerbates hurricane flood hazards along US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in spatially varying patterns, Nat. Commun., 10, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11755-z, 2019.
Meza-Padilla, R., Appendini, C. M., and Pedrozo-Acuña, A.:
Hurricane-induced waves and storm surge modeling for the Mexican coast, Ocean Dynam., 65, 1199–1211, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-015-0861-7, 2015.
Mori, N. and Takemi, T.:
Impact assessment of coastal hazards due to future changes of tropical cyclones in the North Pacific Ocean, Weather and Climate Extremes, 11, 53–69, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2015.09.002, 2016.
Mori, N., Kjerland, M., Nakajo, S., Shibutani, Y., and Shimura, T.:
Impact assessment of climate change on coastal hazards in Japan. Hydrological Research Letters, 10, 101–105, https://doi.org/10.3178/hrl.10.101, 2016.
Mori, N., Shimura, T., Yoshida, K., Mizuta, R., Okada, Y., Fujita, M., Khujanazarov, T., and Nakakita, E.:
Future changes in extreme storm surges based on mega-ensemble projection using 60-km resolution atmospheric global circulation model, Coast. Eng. J., 61, 295–307, https://doi.org/10.1080/21664250.2019.1586290, 2019.
Muis, S., Verlaan, M., Winsemius, H. C., Aerts, J. C. J. H., and Ward, P. J.:
A global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels, Nat. Commun., 7, 11969, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms11969, 2016.
Nakajo, S., Mori, N., Yasuda, T., and Mase, H.: Global stochastic tropical cyclone model based on principal component analysis and cluster analysis, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 53, 1547–1577, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-13-08.1, 2014.
Nederhoff, K., Giardino, A., van Ormondt, M., and Vatvani, D.: Estimates of tropical cyclone geometry parameters based on best-track data, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2359–2370, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2359-2019, 2019.
Nederhoff, K., Hoek, J., Leijnse, T., van Ormondt, M., Caires, S., and Giardino, A.:
Simulating synthetic tropical cyclone tracks for statistically reliable wind and pressure estimations, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 861–878, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-861-2021, 2021.
Nicholls, R. J., Mimura, N., and Topping, J. C.:
Climate change in south and south-east Asia: some implications for coastal areas, J. Glob. Environ. Eng., 1, 137–154, 1995.
Schwerdt, R. W., Ho, F. P., and Watkins, R. R.: Meteorological criteria for standard project hurricane and probable maximum hurricane windfields, Gulf and East Coasts of the United States, NOAA Tech. Rep. NWS 23, 1–317, 1979.
Shultz, J. M., Russell, J., and Espinel, Z.:
Epidemiology of Tropical Cyclones: The Dynamics of Disaster, Disease, and Development, Epidemiol. Rev., 27, 21–35, https://doi.org/10.1093/epirev/mxi011, 2005.
Singh, O. P.:
Long-term trends in the frequency of severe cyclones of Bay of Bengal: Observations and simulations, Mausam, 58, 59–66, http://metnet.imd.gov.in/mausamdocs/15816_F.pdf (last access: 22 May 2022), 2007.
Singh, O. P.: Recent Trends in Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Indian Ocean, in: Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change, edited by: Charabi, Y., Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, 51–54, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3109-9_8, 2010.
Singh, O. P., Ali Khan, T. M., and Rahman, M. S.:
Changes in the frequency of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 75, 11–20, https://doi.org/10.1007/s007030070011, 2000.
Singh, O. P., Ali Khan, T. M., and Rahman, M. S.:
Has the frequency of intense tropical cyclones increased in the north Indian Ocean?, Curr. Sci. India, 80, 575–580, 2001.
Sugi, M., Murakami, H., and Yoshida, K.:
Projection of future changes in the frequency of intense tropical cyclones, Clim. Dynam., 49, 619–632, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3361-7, 2017.
Vafeidis, A. T., Nicholls, R. J., McFadden, L., Tol, R. S. J., Hinkel, J., Spencer, T., Grashoff, P. S., Boot, G., and Klein, R. J. T.: A New Global Coastal Database for Impact and Vulnerability Analysis to Sea-Level Rise, J. Coast. Res., 244, 917–924, https://doi.org/10.2112/06-0725.1, 2008.
van der Westhuysen, A. J., Zijlema, M., and Battjes, J. A.:
Nonlinear saturation-based whitecapping dissipation in SWAN for deep and shallow water, Coast. Eng., 54, 151–170, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2006.08.006, 2007.
van Ormondt, M., van Dongeren, A., and Roelvink, D.: A semi-empirical method for computing storm surges on open coasts during tropical cyclones, Coast. Eng., 165, 103839, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2020.103839, 2021.
Vatvani, D., Zweers, N. C., van Ormondt, M., Smale, A. J., de Vries, H., and Makin, V. K.:
Storm surge and wave simulations in the Gulf of Mexico using a consistent drag relation for atmospheric and storm surge models, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 2399–2410, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2399-2012, 2012.
Vickery, P. J., Skerlj, P. F., and Twisdale, L. A.:
Simulation of Hurricane Risk in the U. S. Using Empirical Track Model, J. Struct. Eng.-ASCE, 126, 1222–1237, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9445(2000)126:10(1222), 2000.
Walsh, K. J. E., McBride, J. L., Klotzbach, P. J., Balachandran, S., Camargo, S. J., Holland, G., Knutson, T. R., Kossin, J. P., Lee, T., Sobel, A., and Sugi, M.:
Tropical cyclones and climate change, WIREs Clim. Change, 7, 65–89, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.371, 2016.
Walsh, K. J. E., McBride, J. L., Klotzbach, P. J., Balachandran, S., Camargo, S. J., Holland, G., Knutson, T. R., Kossin, J. P., Lee, T., Sobel, A., and Sugi, M.: Tropical cyclones and climate change, WIRES. Clim. Change, 7, 65–89, 2019.
Webster, P. J.:
Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment, Science, 309, 1844–1846, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1116448, 2005.
Yang, J. A., Kim, S. Y., Son, S. Y., Mori, N., and Mase, H.:
Assessment of uncertainties in projecting future changes to extreme storm surge height depending of future SST and greenhouse gas emission scenarios, Climatic Change, 162, 425–442, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02782-7, 2020.
Zhang, J. A. and Uhlhorn, E. W.:
Hurricane sea surface inflow angle and an observation-based parametric model, Mon. Weather Rev., 140, 3587–3605, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00339.1, 2012.
Zijlema, M., Van Vledder, G. P., and Holthuijsen, L. H.:
Bottom friction and wind drag for wave models, Coast. Eng., 65, 19–26, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2012.03.002, 2012.
Short summary
Deriving reliable estimates of design conditions resulting from tropical cyclones is a challenge of high relevance to coastal engineering. Here, having few historical observations is overcome by using the Tropical Cyclone Wind Statistical Estimation Tool (TCWiSE) to create thousands of synthetic realizations, representative of 1000 years of tropical cyclone activity for the Bay of Bengal. The use of synthetic tracks is shown to provide more reliable wind speed, storm surge and wave estimates.
Deriving reliable estimates of design conditions resulting from tropical cyclones is a challenge...
Special issue
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint