Articles | Volume 22, issue 6
Research article
07 Jun 2022
Research article |  | 07 Jun 2022

Generating reliable estimates of tropical-cyclone-induced coastal hazards along the Bay of Bengal for current and future climates using synthetic tracks

Tim Willem Bart Leijnse, Alessio Giardino, Kees Nederhoff, and Sofia Caires

Related authors

Accounting for uncertainties in forecasting tropical-cyclone-induced compound flooding
Kees Nederhoff, Maarten van Ormondt, Jay Veeramony, Ap van Dongeren, José Antonio Álvarez Antolínez, Tim Leijnse, and Dano Roelvink
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1789–1811,,, 2024
Short summary
A globally applicable framework for compound flood hazard modeling
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Tim Leijnse, Hiroaki Ikeuchi, Dai Yamazaki, Sanne Muis, Job Dullaart, Arjen Haag, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 823–846,,, 2023
Short summary
Multilevel multifidelity Monte Carlo methods for assessing uncertainty in coastal flooding
Mariana C. A. Clare, Tim W. B. Leijnse, Robert T. McCall, Ferdinand L. M. Diermanse, Colin J. Cotter, and Matthew D. Piggott
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2491–2515,,, 2022
Short summary
Simulating synthetic tropical cyclone tracks for statistically reliable wind and pressure estimations
Kees Nederhoff, Jasper Hoek, Tim Leijnse, Maarten van Ormondt, Sofia Caires, and Alessio Giardino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 861–878,,, 2021
Short summary

Related subject area

Sea, Ocean and Coastal Hazards
Nonlinear processes in tsunami simulations for the Peruvian coast with focus on Lima and Callao
Alexey Androsov, Sven Harig, Natalia Zamora, Kim Knauer, and Natalja Rakowsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1635–1656,,, 2024
Short summary
The potential of global coastal flood risk reduction using various DRR measures
Eric Mortensen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Toon Haer, Bas van Bemmel, Dewi Le Bars, Sanne Muis, Dirk Eilander, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Arno Bouwman, Willem Ligtvoet, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1381–1400,,, 2024
Short summary
Thresholds for estuarine compound flooding using a combined hydrodynamic–statistical modelling approach
Charlotte Lyddon, Nguyen Chien, Grigorios Vasilopoulos, Michael Ridgill, Sogol Moradian, Agnieszka Olbert, Thomas Coulthard, Andrew Barkwith, and Peter Robins
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 973–997,,, 2024
Short summary
Nearshore tsunami amplitudes across the Maldives archipelago due to worst-case seismic scenarios in the Indian Ocean
Shuaib Rasheed, Simon C. Warder, Yves Plancherel, and Matthew D. Piggott
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 737–755,,, 2024
Short summary
Evidence of Middle Holocene landslide-generated tsunamis recorded in lake sediments from Saqqaq, West Greenland
Niels J. Korsgaard, Kristian Svennevig, Anne S. Søndergaard, Gregor Luetzenburg, Mimmi Oksman, and Nicolaj K. Larsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 757–772,,, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Alam, M. M., Hossain, M. A., and Shafee, S.: Frequency of Bay of Bengal cyclonic storms and depressions crossing different coastal zones, Int. J. Climatol., 23, 1119–1125,, 2003. 
Appendini, C. M., Pedrozo-Acuña, A., Meza-Padilla, R., Torres-Freyermuth, A., Cerezo-Mota, R., López-González, J., and Ruiz-Salcines, P.: On the Role of Climate Change on Wind Waves Generated by Tropical Cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico, Coast. Eng. J., 59, 1740001-1–1740001-32,, 2017. 
Bloemendaal, N., Haigh, I. D., Moel, H. De, Muis, S., Haarsma, R. J., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Generation of a global synthetic tropical cyclone hazard dataset using STORM, Sci. Data, 7, 40,, 2020. 
Booij, N., Ris, R. C., and Holthuijsen, L. H.: A third-generation wave model for coastal regions: 1. Model description and validation, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 7649–7666,, 1999. 
Short summary
Deriving reliable estimates of design conditions resulting from tropical cyclones is a challenge of high relevance to coastal engineering. Here, having few historical observations is overcome by using the Tropical Cyclone Wind Statistical Estimation Tool (TCWiSE) to create thousands of synthetic realizations, representative of 1000 years of tropical cyclone activity for the Bay of Bengal. The use of synthetic tracks is shown to provide more reliable wind speed, storm surge and wave estimates.
Final-revised paper