Articles | Volume 22, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1863-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1863-2022
Research article
 | 
07 Jun 2022
Research article |  | 07 Jun 2022

Generating reliable estimates of tropical-cyclone-induced coastal hazards along the Bay of Bengal for current and future climates using synthetic tracks

Tim Willem Bart Leijnse, Alessio Giardino, Kees Nederhoff, and Sofia Caires

Related authors

Accounting for Uncertainties in Forecasting Tropical Cyclone-Induced Compound Flooding
Kees Nederhoff, Maarten van Ormondt, Jay Veeramony, Ap van Dongeren, Jose Antolínez, Tim Leijnse, and Dano Roelvink
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2341,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2341, 2023
Short summary
A globally applicable framework for compound flood hazard modeling
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Tim Leijnse, Hiroaki Ikeuchi, Dai Yamazaki, Sanne Muis, Job Dullaart, Arjen Haag, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 823–846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, 2023
Short summary
Multilevel multifidelity Monte Carlo methods for assessing uncertainty in coastal flooding
Mariana C. A. Clare, Tim W. B. Leijnse, Robert T. McCall, Ferdinand L. M. Diermanse, Colin J. Cotter, and Matthew D. Piggott
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2491–2515, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2491-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2491-2022, 2022
Short summary
Simulating synthetic tropical cyclone tracks for statistically reliable wind and pressure estimations
Kees Nederhoff, Jasper Hoek, Tim Leijnse, Maarten van Ormondt, Sofia Caires, and Alessio Giardino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 861–878, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-861-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-861-2021, 2021
Short summary

Related subject area

Sea, Ocean and Coastal Hazards
Hurricane Irma: an unprecedented event over the last 3700 years? Geomorphological changes and sedimentological record in Codrington Lagoon, Barbuda
Maude Biguenet, Eric Chaumillon, Pierre Sabatier, Antoine Bastien, Emeline Geba, Fabien Arnaud, Thibault Coulombier, and Nathalie Feuillet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3761–3788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3761-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3761-2023, 2023
Short summary
Bayesian extreme value analysis of extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast using historical information
Leigh Richard MacPherson, Arne Arns, Svenja Fischer, Fernando Javier Méndez, and Jürgen Jensen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3685–3701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023, 2023
Short summary
Storm characteristics influence nitrogen removal in an urban estuarine environment
Anne Margaret H. Smiley, Suzanne P. Thompson, Nathan S. Hall, and Michael F. Piehler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3635–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023, 2023
Short summary
A new European coastal flood database for low–medium intensity events
Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Enrico Duo, Juan Montes Perez, Paulo Cabrita, Paola Souto Ceccon, Véra Gastal, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3585–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, 2023
Short summary
Boulder transport and wave height of a seventeenth-century South China Sea tsunami on Penghu Islands, Taiwan
Neng-Ti Yu, Cheng-Hao Lu, I-Chin Yen, Jia-Hong Chen, Jiun-Yee Yen, and Shyh-Jeng Chyi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3525–3542, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023, 2023
Short summary

Cited articles

Alam, M. M., Hossain, M. A., and Shafee, S.: Frequency of Bay of Bengal cyclonic storms and depressions crossing different coastal zones, Int. J. Climatol., 23, 1119–1125, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.927, 2003. 
Appendini, C. M., Pedrozo-Acuña, A., Meza-Padilla, R., Torres-Freyermuth, A., Cerezo-Mota, R., López-González, J., and Ruiz-Salcines, P.: On the Role of Climate Change on Wind Waves Generated by Tropical Cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico, Coast. Eng. J., 59, 1740001-1–1740001-32, https://doi.org/10.1142/S0578563417400010, 2017. 
Bloemendaal, N., Haigh, I. D., Moel, H. De, Muis, S., Haarsma, R. J., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Generation of a global synthetic tropical cyclone hazard dataset using STORM, Sci. Data, 7, 40, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0381-2, 2020. 
Booij, N., Ris, R. C., and Holthuijsen, L. H.: A third-generation wave model for coastal regions: 1. Model description and validation, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 7649–7666, https://doi.org/10.1029/98JC02622, 1999. 
Short summary
Deriving reliable estimates of design conditions resulting from tropical cyclones is a challenge of high relevance to coastal engineering. Here, having few historical observations is overcome by using the Tropical Cyclone Wind Statistical Estimation Tool (TCWiSE) to create thousands of synthetic realizations, representative of 1000 years of tropical cyclone activity for the Bay of Bengal. The use of synthetic tracks is shown to provide more reliable wind speed, storm surge and wave estimates.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint