Generating reliable estimates of tropical-cyclone-induced coastal hazards along the Bay of Bengal for current and future climates using synthetic tracks

Leijnse, Tim Willem Bart; Giardino, Alessio; Nederhoff, Kees; Caires, Sofia

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1863-2022

Articles | Volume 22, issue 6

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1863-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

Coastal hazards and hydro-meteorological extremes

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1863-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 22, issue 6

Research article

|

07 Jun 2022

Research article |

| 07 Jun 2022

Generating reliable estimates of tropical-cyclone-induced coastal hazards along the Bay of Bengal for current and future climates using synthetic tracks

Tim Willem Bart Leijnse, Alessio Giardino, Kees Nederhoff, and Sofia Caires

Data sets

Dataset - Generating reliable estimates of tropical cyclone induced coastal hazards along the Bay of Bengal for current and future climates using synthetic tracks T. Leijnse, A. Giardino, K. Nederhoff, and S. Caires https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6420739

Model code and software

ORCA Deltares https://www.deltares.nl/en/software/orca/

TCWiSE Deltares https://www.deltares.nl/en/software/tcwise/

Delft3D FM Suite Deltares https://www.deltares.nl/en/software/delft3d-flexible-mesh-suite/

Short summary

Deriving reliable estimates of design conditions resulting from tropical cyclones is a challenge of high relevance to coastal engineering. Here, having few historical observations is overcome by using the Tropical Cyclone Wind Statistical Estimation Tool (TCWiSE) to create thousands of synthetic realizations, representative of 1000 years of tropical cyclone activity for the Bay of Bengal. The use of synthetic tracks is shown to provide more reliable wind speed, storm surge and wave estimates.