Articles | Volume 20, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1097-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1097-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
24 Apr 2020
Research article |
| 24 Apr 2020
| 24 Apr 2020
Satellite hydrology observations as operational indicators of forecasted fire danger across the contiguous United States
Alireza Farahmand
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology,
Pasadena, CA, USA
E. Natasha Stavros
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology,
Pasadena, CA, USA
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology,
Pasadena, CA, USA
Ali Behrangi
Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
James T. Randerson
Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA
Brad Quayle
Geospatial Technology and Applications Center, USDA Forest Service, 2222 West 2300 South, Salt Lake City, UT, USA
Related authors
No articles found.
Mohammad Ali Farmani, Ali Behrangi, Aniket Gupta, Ahmad Tavakoly, Matthew Geheran, and Guo-Yue Niu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1256, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1256, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates how key hydrological processes enhance soil water retention and release in land surface models, crucial for accurate weather and climate forecasting. Experiments show that soil hydraulics effectively sustain soil moisture. Additionally, allowing surface water ponding and improving soil permeability through macropores both enhance soil moisture persistency in the models.
Tianjia Liu, James T. Randerson, Yang Chen, Douglas C. Morton, Elizabeth B. Wiggins, Padhraic Smyth, Efi Foufoula-Georgiou, Roy Nadler, and Omer Nevo
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1395–1424, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1395-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1395-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To improve our understanding of extreme wildfire behavior, we use geostationary satellite data to develop the GOFER algorithm and track the hourly fire progression of large wildfires. GOFER fills a key temporal gap present in other fire tracking products that rely on low-Earth-orbit imagery and reveals considerable variability in fire spread rates on diurnal timescales. We create a product of hourly fire perimeters, active-fire lines, and fire spread rates for 28 fires in California.
Joanne V. Hall, Fernanda Argueta, Maria Zubkova, Yang Chen, James T. Randerson, and Louis Giglio
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 867–885, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-867-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-867-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Crop-residue burning is a widespread practice often occurring close to population centers. Its recurrent nature requires accurate mapping of the area burned – a key input into air quality models. Unlike larger fires, crop fires require a specific burned area (BA) methodology, which to date has been ignored in global BA datasets. Our global cropland-focused BA product found a significant increase in global cropland BA (81 Mha annual average) compared to the widely used MCD64A1 (32 Mha).
Miguel Ricardo A. Hilario, Avelino F. Arellano, Ali Behrangi, Ewan C. Crosbie, Joshua P. DiGangi, Glenn S. Diskin, Michael A. Shook, Luke D. Ziemba, and Armin Sorooshian
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 37–55, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-37-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-37-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Wet scavenging strongly influences aerosol lifetime and interactions but is a large uncertainty in global models. We present a method to identify meteorological variables relevant for estimating wet scavenging. During long-range transport over the tropical western Pacific, relative humidity and the frequency of humid conditions are better predictors of scavenging than precipitation. This method can be applied to other regions, and our findings can inform scavenging parameterizations in models.
Yang Chen, Joanne Hall, Dave van Wees, Niels Andela, Stijn Hantson, Louis Giglio, Guido R. van der Werf, Douglas C. Morton, and James T. Randerson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5227–5259, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5227-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5227-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using multiple sets of remotely sensed data, we created a dataset of monthly global burned area from 1997 to 2020. The estimated annual global burned area is 774 million hectares, significantly higher than previous estimates. Burned area declined by 1.21% per year due to extensive fire loss in savanna, grassland, and cropland ecosystems. This study enhances our understanding of the impact of fire on the carbon cycle and climate system, and may improve the predictions of future fire changes.
Stefano Potter, Sol Cooperdock, Sander Veraverbeke, Xanthe Walker, Michelle C. Mack, Scott J. Goetz, Jennifer Baltzer, Laura Bourgeau-Chavez, Arden Burrell, Catherine Dieleman, Nancy French, Stijn Hantson, Elizabeth E. Hoy, Liza Jenkins, Jill F. Johnstone, Evan S. Kane, Susan M. Natali, James T. Randerson, Merritt R. Turetsky, Ellen Whitman, Elizabeth Wiggins, and Brendan M. Rogers
Biogeosciences, 20, 2785–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2785-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2785-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here we developed a new burned-area detection algorithm between 2001–2019 across Alaska and Canada at 500 m resolution. We estimate 2.37 Mha burned annually between 2001–2019 over the domain, emitting 79.3 Tg C per year, with a mean combustion rate of 3.13 kg C m−2. We found larger-fire years were generally associated with greater mean combustion. The burned-area and combustion datasets described here can be used for local- to continental-scale applications of boreal fire science.
Fa Li, Qing Zhu, William J. Riley, Lei Zhao, Li Xu, Kunxiaojia Yuan, Min Chen, Huayi Wu, Zhipeng Gui, Jianya Gong, and James T. Randerson
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 869–884, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-869-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-869-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed an interpretable machine learning model to predict sub-seasonal and near-future wildfire-burned area over African and South American regions. We found strong time-lagged controls (up to 6–8 months) of local climate wetness on burned areas. A skillful use of such time-lagged controls in machine learning models results in highly accurate predictions of wildfire-burned areas; this will also help develop relevant early-warning and management systems for tropical wildfires.
Dave van Wees, Guido R. van der Werf, James T. Randerson, Brendan M. Rogers, Yang Chen, Sander Veraverbeke, Louis Giglio, and Douglas C. Morton
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8411–8437, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8411-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8411-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a global fire emission model based on the GFED model framework with a spatial resolution of 500 m. The higher resolution allowed for a more detailed representation of spatial heterogeneity in fuels and emissions. Specific modules were developed to model, for example, emissions from fire-related forest loss and belowground burning. Results from the 500 m model were compared to GFED4s, showing that global emissions were relatively similar but that spatial differences were substantial.
Elias C. Massoud, A. Anthony Bloom, Marcos Longo, John T. Reager, Paul A. Levine, and John R. Worden
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1407–1423, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1407-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1407-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The water balance on river basin scales depends on a number of soil physical processes. Gaining information on these quantities using observations is a key step toward improving the skill of land surface hydrology models. In this study, we use data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (NASA-GRACE) to inform and constrain these hydrologic processes. We show that our model is able to simulate the land hydrologic cycle for a watershed in the Amazon from January 2003 to December 2012.
Qing Zhu, Fa Li, William J. Riley, Li Xu, Lei Zhao, Kunxiaojia Yuan, Huayi Wu, Jianya Gong, and James Randerson
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1899–1911, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1899-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1899-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfire is a devastating Earth system process that burns about 500 million hectares of land each year. It wipes out vegetation including trees, shrubs, and grasses and causes large losses of economic assets. However, modeling the spatial distribution and temporal changes of wildfire activities at a global scale is challenging. This study built a machine-learning-based wildfire surrogate model within an existing Earth system model and achieved high accuracy.
Yan Yang, A. Anthony Bloom, Shuang Ma, Paul Levine, Alexander Norton, Nicholas C. Parazoo, John T. Reager, John Worden, Gregory R. Quetin, T. Luke Smallman, Mathew Williams, Liang Xu, and Sassan Saatchi
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1789–1802, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1789-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1789-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Global carbon and water have large uncertainties that are hard to quantify in current regional and global models. Field observations provide opportunities for better calibration and validation of current modeling of carbon and water. With the unique structure of CARDAMOM, we have utilized the data assimilation capability and designed the benchmarking framework by using field observations in modeling. Results show that data assimilation improves model performance in different aspects.
Elizabeth B. Wiggins, Arlyn Andrews, Colm Sweeney, John B. Miller, Charles E. Miller, Sander Veraverbeke, Roisin Commane, Steven Wofsy, John M. Henderson, and James T. Randerson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8557–8574, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8557-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8557-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed high-resolution trace gas measurements collected from a tower in Alaska during a very active fire season to improve our understanding of trace gas emissions from boreal forest fires. Our results suggest previous studies may have underestimated emissions from smoldering combustion in boreal forest fires.
Miguel Ricardo A. Hilario, Ewan Crosbie, Michael Shook, Jeffrey S. Reid, Maria Obiminda L. Cambaliza, James Bernard B. Simpas, Luke Ziemba, Joshua P. DiGangi, Glenn S. Diskin, Phu Nguyen, F. Joseph Turk, Edward Winstead, Claire E. Robinson, Jian Wang, Jiaoshi Zhang, Yang Wang, Subin Yoon, James Flynn, Sergio L. Alvarez, Ali Behrangi, and Armin Sorooshian
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3777–3802, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3777-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study characterizes long-range transport from major Asian pollution sources into the tropical northwest Pacific and the impact of scavenging on these air masses. We combined aircraft observations, HYSPLIT trajectories, reanalysis, and satellite retrievals to reveal distinct composition and size distribution profiles associated with specific emission sources and wet scavenging. The results of this work have implications for international policymaking related to climate and health.
Alka Singh, John Thomas Reager, and Ali Behrangi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 511–526, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-511-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-511-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The study demonstrates the utility of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSAs) for obtaining statistics of hydrological droughts, i.e., recovery periods and required precipitation in different precipitation scenarios. The findings of this study are that the GRACE-based drought index is valid for estimating the required precipitation for drought recovery, and the period of drought recovery depends on the intensity of the precipitation.
A. Anthony Bloom, Kevin W. Bowman, Junjie Liu, Alexandra G. Konings, John R. Worden, Nicholas C. Parazoo, Victoria Meyer, John T. Reager, Helen M. Worden, Zhe Jiang, Gregory R. Quetin, T. Luke Smallman, Jean-François Exbrayat, Yi Yin, Sassan S. Saatchi, Mathew Williams, and David S. Schimel
Biogeosciences, 17, 6393–6422, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6393-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6393-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We use a model of the 2001–2015 tropical land carbon cycle, with satellite measurements of land and atmospheric carbon, to disentangle lagged and concurrent effects (due to past and concurrent meteorological events, respectively) on annual land–atmosphere carbon exchanges. The variability of lagged effects explains most 2001–2015 inter-annual carbon flux variations. We conclude that concurrent and lagged effects need to be accurately resolved to better predict the world's land carbon sink.
Hossein Dadashazar, Ewan Crosbie, Mohammad S. Majdi, Milad Panahi, Mohammad A. Moghaddam, Ali Behrangi, Michael Brunke, Xubin Zeng, Haflidi H. Jonsson, and Armin Sorooshian
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 4637–4665, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4637-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4637-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Clearings in the marine-boundary-layer (MBL) cloud deck of the Pacific Ocean were studied. Remote sensing, reanalysis, and airborne data were used along with machine-learning modeling to characterize the spatiotemporal nature of clearings and factors governing their growth. The most significant implications of our results are linked to modeling of fog and MBL clouds, with implications for societal and environmental issues like climate, military operations, transportation, and coastal ecology.
Joseph T. D. Lucey, John T. Reager, and Sonya R. Lopez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1415–1427, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1415-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1415-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This work relates total water storage (TWS) and rainfall to surface water inundation (SWI) using NASA satellite data. We determine whether TWS and/or rainfall control global SWI developments. Regression methods and cross-correlations were used to relate the measurements and correct for time differences among peaks. Results show TWS and rainfall control most global SWI developments. To our knowledge, this is the first global study on SWI controls and validates previous findings.
Heloisa Ehalt Macedo, Ralph Edward Beighley, Cédric H. David, and John T. Reager
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3269–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3269-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3269-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The water stored under the surface is very important for defining the amount of water available for human and environmental applications; however, it is still a challenge to obtain such measurements. NASA's GRACE satellites provide information on total terrestrial water storage based on observations of gravity changes. Here, we relate GRACE data to streamflow measurements, providing estimations of the fraction of baseflow and total drainable storage for the Mississippi River basin.
Niels Andela, Douglas C. Morton, Louis Giglio, Ronan Paugam, Yang Chen, Stijn Hantson, Guido R. van der Werf, and James T. Randerson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 529–552, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-529-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-529-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Natural and human-ignited fires affect all major biomes, and satellite observations provide evidence for rapid changes in global fire activity. The Global Fire Atlas of individual fire size, duration, speed, and direction is the first global data product on individual fire behavior. Moving towards a global understanding of individual fire behavior is a critical next step in fire research, required to understand how global fire regimes are changing in response to land management and climate.
Guido R. van der Werf, James T. Randerson, Louis Giglio, Thijs T. van Leeuwen, Yang Chen, Brendan M. Rogers, Mingquan Mu, Margreet J. E. van Marle, Douglas C. Morton, G. James Collatz, Robert J. Yokelson, and Prasad S. Kasibhatla
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 697–720, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-697-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-697-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Fires occur in many vegetation types and are sometimes natural but often ignited by humans for various purposes. We have estimated how much area they burn globally and what their emissions are. Total burned area is roughly equivalent to the size of the EU with most fires burning in tropical savannas. Their emissions vary substantially from year to year and contribute to the atmospheric burdens of many trace gases and aerosols. The 20-year dataset is mostly suited for large-scale assessments.
Paul A. Levine, James T. Randerson, Sean C. Swenson, and David M. Lawrence
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4837–4856, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4837-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4837-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We demonstrate a new approach to assess the strength of feedbacks resulting from land–atmosphere coupling on decadal timescales. Our approach was tailored to enable evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) using data from Earth observation satellites that measure terrestrial water storage anomalies and relevant atmospheric variables. Our results are consistent with previous work demonstrating that ESMs may be overestimating the strength of land surface feedbacks compared with observations.
Weiwei Fu, James T. Randerson, and J. Keith Moore
Biogeosciences, 13, 5151–5170, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5151-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5151-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Global NPP and EP are reduced considerably for RCP8.5. Negative response of NPP and EP to stratification increases reflects a bottom-up control. Models with dynamic phytoplankton community structure show larger declines in EP than in NPP driven by phytoplankton community composition shifts. Projections of the NPP response to climate change depend on the phytoplankton community structure, the efficiency of the biological pump and the levels of regenerated production.
Chris D. Jones, Vivek Arora, Pierre Friedlingstein, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, John Dunne, Heather Graven, Forrest Hoffman, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Martin Jung, Michio Kawamiya, Charlie Koven, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, James T. Randerson, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2853–2880, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
How the carbon cycle interacts with climate will affect future climate change and how society plans emissions reductions to achieve climate targets. The Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) is an endorsed activity of CMIP6 and aims to quantify these interactions and feedbacks in state-of-the-art climate models. This paper lays out the experimental protocol for modelling groups to follow to contribute to C4MIP. It is a contribution to the CMIP6 GMD Special Issue.
E. A. Sproles, S. G. Leibowitz, J. T. Reager, P. J. Wigington Jr, J. S. Famiglietti, and S. D. Patil
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3253–3272, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3253-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3253-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The paper demonstrates how data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) can be used to describe the relationship between water stored at the regional scale and stream flow. Additionally, we employ GRACE as a regional-scale indicator to successfully predict stream flow later in the water year. Our work focuses on the Columbia River Basin (North America), but is widely applicable across the globe, and could prove to be particularly useful in regions with limited hydrological data.
Related subject area
Other Hazards (e.g., Glacial and Snow Hazards, Karst, Wildfires Hazards, and Medical Geo-Hazards)
Glide-snow avalanches: a mechanical, threshold-based release area model
Improving fire severity prediction in south-eastern Australia using vegetation-specific information
Review article: A scoping review of human factors in avalanche decision-making
How hard do avalanche practitioners tap during snow stability tests?
A large-scale validation of snowpack simulations in support of avalanche forecasting focusing on critical layers
A glacial lake outburst flood risk assessment for the Phochhu river basin, Bhutan
Statistical calibration of probabilistic medium-range fire weather index forecasts in Europe
AutoATES v2.0: Automated Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale mapping
Modelling the vulnerability of urban settings to wildland–urban interface fires in Chile
Modeling of indoor 222Rn in data-scarce regions: an interactive dashboard approach for Bogotá, Colombia
The effect of propagation saw test geometries on critical cut length
A regional early warning for slushflow hazard
A new approach for drought index adjustment to clay-shrinkage-induced subsidence over France: advantages of the interactive leaf area index
Automated Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) mapping – local validation and optimization in western Canada
An Efficient Method to Simulate Wildfire Propagation Using Irregular Grids
Improving the fire weather index system for peatlands using peat-specific hydrological input data
Brief communication: The Lahaina Fire disaster – how models can be used to understand and predict wildfires
Prediction of natural dry-snow avalanche activity using physics-based snowpack simulations
Early warning system for ice collapses and river blockages in the Sedongpu Valley, southeastern Tibetan Plateau
Fire risk modeling: an integrated and data-driven approach applied to Sicily
Avalanche size estimation and avalanche outline determination by experts: reliability and implications for practice
Fluid conduits and shallow-reservoir structure defined by geoelectrical tomography at the Nirano Salse (Italy)
Estimating the effects of meteorology and land cover on fire growth in Peru using a novel difference equation model
Review article: Snow and ice avalanches in high mountain Asia – scientific, local and indigenous knowledge
Reduced-order digital twin and latent data assimilation for global wildfire prediction
A user perspective on the avalanche danger scale – insights from North America
Characterizing the rate of spread of large wildfires in emerging fire environments of northwestern Europe using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite active fire data
Evaluation of low-cost Raspberry Pi sensors for structure-from-motion reconstructions of glacier calving fronts
Temporal evolution of crack propagation characteristics in a weak snowpack layer: conditions of crack arrest and sustained propagation
A data-driven model for Fennoscandian wildfire danger
Equivalent hazard magnitude scale
Statistical modelling of air quality impacts from individual forest fires in New South Wales, Australia
Drivers of extreme burnt area in Portugal: fire weather and vegetation
Coupling wildfire spread simulations and connectivity analysis for hazard assessment: a case study in Serra da Cabreira, Portugal
Glacial lake outburst flood hazard under current and future conditions: worst-case scenarios in a transboundary Himalayan basin
What weather variables are important for wet and slab avalanches under a changing climate in a low-altitude mountain range in Czechia?
Modelling ignition probability for human- and lightning-caused wildfires in Victoria, Australia
Automated snow avalanche release area delineation in data-sparse, remote, and forested regions
The 2017 Split wildfire in Croatia: evolution and the role of meteorological conditions
Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021): a research community perspective
Global assessment and mapping of ecological vulnerability to wildfires
The impact of terrain model source and resolution on snow avalanche modeling
Travel and terrain advice statements in public avalanche bulletins: a quantitative analysis of who uses this information, what makes it useful, and how it can be improved for users
Data-driven automated predictions of the avalanche danger level for dry-snow conditions in Switzerland
On the correlation between a sub-level qualifier refining the danger level with observations and models relating to the contributing factors of avalanche danger
Automated avalanche hazard indication mapping on a statewide scale
Forecasting the regional fire radiative power for regularly ignited vegetation fires
Environmental factors affecting wildfire-burned areas in southeastern France, 1970–2019
Detrainment and braking of snow avalanches interacting with forests
Past and future trends in fire weather for the UK
Amelie Fees, Alec van Herwijnen, Michael Lombardo, Jürg Schweizer, and Peter Lehmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3387–3400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3387-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Glide-snow avalanches release at the ground–snow interface, and their release process is poorly understood. To investigate the influence of spatial variability (snowpack and basal friction) on avalanche release, we developed a 3D, mechanical, threshold-based model that reproduces an observed release area distribution. A sensitivity analysis showed that the distribution was mostly influenced by the basal friction uniformity, while the variations in snowpack properties had little influence.
Kang He, Xinyi Shen, Cory Merow, Efthymios Nikolopoulos, Rachael V. Gallagher, Feifei Yang, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3337–3355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3337-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3337-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A framework combining a fire severity classification with a regression model to predict an indicator of fire severity derived from Landsat imagery (difference normalized burning ratio, dNBR) is proposed. The results show that the proposed predictive technique is capable of providing robust fire severity prediction information, which can be used for forecasting seasonal fire severity and, subsequently, impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems under projected future climate conditions.
Audun Hetland, Rebecca Anne Hetland, Tarjei Tveito Skille, and Andrea Mannberg
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1628, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Research on human factor in avalanche decision making has become increasingly popular the past two decades. The studies span across a wide range of disciplines and is published in a variety of journals. To provide an overview of the literature this study provide a systematic scooping review of human factor in avalanche decision making. 70 papers fulfilled the search criteria. We extracted data and sorted the papers according to their main theme.
Håvard B. Toft, Samuel V. Verplanck, and Markus Landrø
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2757–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2757-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates inconsistencies in impact force as part of extended column tests (ECTs). We measured force-time curves from 286 practitioners in Scandinavia, Central Europe, and North America. The results show a large variability in peak forces and loading rates across wrist, elbow, and shoulder taps, challenging the ECT's reliability.
Florian Herla, Pascal Haegeli, Simon Horton, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2727–2756, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2727-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Snowpack simulations are increasingly employed by avalanche warning services to inform about critical avalanche layers buried in the snowpack. However, validity concerns limit their operational value. We present methods that enable meaningful comparisons between snowpack simulations and regional assessments of avalanche forecasters to quantify the performance of the Canadian weather and snowpack model chain to represent thin critical avalanche layers on a large scale and in real time.
Tandin Wangchuk and Ryota Tsubaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2523–2540, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2523-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2523-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) is a natural hazard in which water from a glacier-fed lake is swiftly discharged, causing serious harm to life, infrastructure, and communities. We used numerical models to predict the potential consequences of a GLOF originating from the Thorthomi glacial lake in Bhutan. We found that if a GLOF occurs, the lake could release massive flood water within 4 h, posing a considerable risk. Study findings help to mitigate the impacts of future GLOFs.
Stephanie Bohlmann and Marko Laine
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-57, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-57, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Probabilistic ensemble forecasts of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) can be used to estimate the possible risk for wildfires but requires post-processing to provide accurate and reliable predictions. We present a calibration method using non-homogeneous Gaussian regression to statistical post-process FWI forecasts up to 15 days. Calibration improves the forecast especially at short lead times and in regions with elevated FWI values.
Håvard B. Toft, John Sykes, Andrew Schauer, Jordy Hendrikx, and Audun Hetland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1779–1793, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1779-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1779-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Manual Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) mapping is time-consuming and inefficient for large-scale applications. The updated algorithm for automated ATES mapping overcomes previous limitations by including forest density data, improving the avalanche runout estimations in low-angle runout zones, accounting for overhead exposure and open-source software. Results show that the latest version has significantly improved its performance.
Paula Aguirre, Jorge León, Constanza González-Mathiesen, Randy Román, Manuela Penas, and Alonso Ogueda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1521–1537, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1521-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1521-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfires pose a significant risk to property located in the wildland–urban interface (WUI). To assess and mitigate this risk, we need to understand which characteristics of buildings and building arrangements make them more prone to damage. We used a combination of data collection and analysis methods to study the vulnerability of dwellings in the WUI for case studies in Chile and concluded that the spatial arrangement of houses has a substantial impact on their vulnerability to wildfires.
Martín Domínguez Durán, María Angélica Sandoval Garzón, and Carme Huguet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1319–1339, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1319-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we created a cost-effective alternative to bridge the baseline information gap on indoor radon (a highly carcinogenic gas) in regions where measurements are scarce. We model indoor radon concentrations to understand its spatial distribution and the potential influential factors. We evaluated the performance of this alternative using a small number of measurements taken in Bogotá, Colombia. Our results show that this alternative could help in the making of future studies and policy.
Bastian Bergfeld, Karl W. Birkeland, Valentin Adam, Philipp L. Rosendahl, and Alec van Herwijnen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-690, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-690, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To release a slab avalanche, a crack in a weak snow layer beneath a cohesive slab has to propagate. Information on that is essential for assessing avalanche risk. In the field, information can be gathered with the Propagation Saw Test (PST). However, there are different standards on how to cut the PST. In this study, we experimentally investigate the effect of these different column geometries and provide models to correct for imprecise field test geometry effects on the critical cut length.
Monica Sund, Heidi A. Grønsten, and Siv Å. Seljesæter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1185–1201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1185-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1185-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Slushflows are rapid mass movements of water-saturated snow released in gently sloping terrain (< 30°), often unexpectedly. Early warning is crucial to prevent casualties and damage to infrastructure. A regional early warning for slushflow hazard was established in Norway in 2013–2014 and has been operational since. We present a methodology using the ratio between water supply and snow depth by snow type to assess slushflow hazard. This approach is useful for other areas with slushflow hazard.
Sophie Barthelemy, Bertrand Bonan, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Gilles Grandjean, David Moncoulon, Dorothée Kapsambelis, and Séverine Bernardie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 999–1016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-999-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-999-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents a drought index specifically adapted to subsidence, a seasonal phenomenon of soil shrinkage that occurs frequently in France and damages buildings. The index is computed from land surface model simulations and evaluated by a rank correlation test with insurance data. With its optimal configuration, the index is able to identify years of both zero and significant loss.
John Sykes, Håvard Toft, Pascal Haegeli, and Grant Statham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 947–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-947-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-947-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The research validates and optimizes an automated approach for creating classified snow avalanche terrain maps using open-source geospatial modeling tools. Validation is based on avalanche-expert-based maps for two study areas. Our results show that automated maps have an overall accuracy equivalent to the average accuracy of three human maps. Automated mapping requires a fraction of the time and cost of traditional methods and opens the door for large-scale mapping of mountainous terrain.
Conor Hackett, Rafael de Andrade Moral, Gourav Mishra, Tim McCarthy, and Charles Markham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-27, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This paper reviews existing wildfire propagation models and a comparison of different grid types including random grids to simulate wildfires. This paper finds that irregular grids simulate wildfires more efficiently than continuous models while still retaining a reasonable level of similarity. It also shows that irregular grids tend to retain greater similarity to continuous models than regular grids at the cost of slightly longer computational times.
Jonas Mortelmans, Anne Felsberg, Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy, Sander Veraverbeke, Robert D. Field, Niels Andela, and Michel Bechtold
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 445–464, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With global warming increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires in the boreal region, accurate risk assessments are becoming more crucial than ever before. The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is a renowned system, yet its effectiveness in peatlands, where hydrology plays a key role, is limited. By incorporating groundwater data from numerical models and satellite observations, our modified FWI improves the accuracy of fire danger predictions, especially over summer.
Timothy W. Juliano, Fernando Szasdi-Bardales, Neil P. Lareau, Kasra Shamsaei, Branko Kosović, Negar Elhami-Khorasani, Eric P. James, and Hamed Ebrahimian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 47–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-47-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-47-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Following the destructive Lahaina Fire in Hawaii, our team has modeled the wind and fire spread processes to understand the drivers of this devastating event. The simulation results show that extreme winds with high variability, a fire ignition close to the community, and construction characteristics led to continued fire spread in multiple directions. Our results suggest that available modeling capabilities can provide vital information to guide decision-making during wildfire events.
Stephanie Mayer, Frank Techel, Jürg Schweizer, and Alec van Herwijnen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3445–3465, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present statistical models to estimate the probability for natural dry-snow avalanche release and avalanche size based on the simulated layering of the snowpack. The benefit of these models is demonstrated in comparison with benchmark models based on the amount of new snow. From the validation with data sets of quality-controlled avalanche observations and danger levels, we conclude that these models may be valuable tools to support forecasting natural dry-snow avalanche activity.
Wei Yang, Zhongyan Wang, Baosheng An, Yingying Chen, Chuanxi Zhao, Chenhui Li, Yongjie Wang, Weicai Wang, Jiule Li, Guangjian Wu, Lin Bai, Fan Zhang, and Tandong Yao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3015–3029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3015-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3015-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present the structure and performance of the early warning system (EWS) for glacier collapse and river blockages in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The EWS warned of three collapse–river blockage chain events and seven small-scale events. The volume and location of the collapses and the percentage of ice content influenced the velocities of debris flows. Such a study is helpful for understanding the mechanism of glacier hazards and for establishing similar EWSs in other high-risk regions.
Alba Marquez Torres, Giovanni Signorello, Sudeshna Kumar, Greta Adamo, Ferdinando Villa, and Stefano Balbi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2937–2959, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2937-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2937-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Only by mapping fire risks can we manage forest and prevent fires under current and future climate conditions. We present a fire risk map based on k.LAB, artificial-intelligence-powered and open-source software integrating multidisciplinary knowledge in near real time. Through an easy-to-use web application, we model the hazard with 84 % accuracy for Sicily, a representative Mediterranean region. Fire risk analysis reveals 45 % of vulnerable areas face a high probability of danger in 2050.
Elisabeth D. Hafner, Frank Techel, Rodrigo Caye Daudt, Jan Dirk Wegner, Konrad Schindler, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2895–2914, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2895-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Oftentimes when objective measurements are not possible, human estimates are used instead. In our study, we investigate the reproducibility of human judgement for size estimates, the mappings of avalanches from oblique photographs and remotely sensed imagery. The variability that we found in those estimates is worth considering as it may influence results and should be kept in mind for several applications.
Gerardo Romano, Marco Antonellini, Domenico Patella, Agata Siniscalchi, Andrea Tallarico, Simona Tripaldi, and Antonello Piombo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2719–2735, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Nirano Salse (northern Apennines, Italy) is characterized by several active mud vents and hosts thousands of visitors every year. New resistivity models describe the area down to 250 m, improving our geostructural knowledge of the area and giving useful indications for a better understanding of mud volcano dynamics and for the better planning of safer tourist access to the area.
Harry Podschwit, William Jolly, Ernesto Alvarado, Andrea Markos, Satyam Verma, Sebastian Barreto-Rivera, Catherine Tobón-Cruz, and Blanca Ponce-Vigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2607–2624, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2607-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a model of fire spread that assumes that fire spreads in all directions at a constant speed and is extinguished at a constant rate. The model was fitted to 1003 fires in Peru between 2001 and 2020 using satellite burned area data from the GlobFire project. We fitted statistical models that predicted the spread and extinguish rates based on weather and land cover variables and found that these variables were good predictors of the spread and extinguish rates.
Anushilan Acharya, Jakob F. Steiner, Khwaja Momin Walizada, Salar Ali, Zakir Hussain Zakir, Arnaud Caiserman, and Teiji Watanabe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2569–2592, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2569-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2569-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
All accessible snow and ice avalanches together with previous scientific research, local knowledge, and existing or previously active adaptation and mitigation solutions were investigated in the high mountain Asia (HMA) region to have a detailed overview of the state of knowledge and identify gaps. A comprehensive avalanche database from 1972–2022 is generated, including 681 individual events. The database provides a basis for the forecasting of avalanche hazards in different parts of HMA.
Caili Zhong, Sibo Cheng, Matthew Kasoar, and Rossella Arcucci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1755–1768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1755-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1755-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces a digital twin fire model using machine learning techniques to improve the efficiency of global wildfire predictions. The proposed model also manages to efficiently adjust the prediction results thanks to data assimilation techniques. The proposed digital twin runs 500 times faster than the current state-of-the-art physics-based model.
Abby Morgan, Pascal Haegeli, Henry Finn, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1719–1742, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The avalanche danger scale is a critical component for communicating the severity of avalanche hazard conditions to the public. We examine how backcountry recreationists in North America understand and use the danger scale for planning trips into the backcountry. Our results provide an important user perspective on the strengths and weaknesses of the existing scale and highlight opportunities for future improvements.
Adrián Cardíl, Victor M. Tapia, Santiago Monedero, Tomás Quiñones, Kerryn Little, Cathelijne R. Stoof, Joaquín Ramirez, and Sergio de-Miguel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 361–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-361-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to unravel large-fire behavior in northwest Europe, a temperate region with a projected increase in wildfire risk. We propose a new method to identify wildfire rate of spread from satellites because it is important to know periods of elevated fire risk for suppression methods and land management. Results indicate that there is a peak in the area burned and rate of spread in the months of March and April, and there are significant differences for forest-type land covers.
Liam S. Taylor, Duncan J. Quincey, and Mark W. Smith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 329–341, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-329-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-329-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hazards from glaciers are becoming more likely as the climate warms, which poses a threat to communities living beneath them. We have developed a new camera system which can capture regular, high-quality 3D models to monitor small changes in glaciers which could be indicative of a future hazard. This system is far cheaper than more typical camera sensors yet produces very similar quality data. We suggest that deploying these cameras near glaciers could assist in warning communities of hazards.
Bastian Bergfeld, Alec van Herwijnen, Grégoire Bobillier, Philipp L. Rosendahl, Philipp Weißgraeber, Valentin Adam, Jürg Dual, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 293–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-293-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-293-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For a slab avalanche to release, the snowpack must facilitate crack propagation over large distances. Field measurements on crack propagation at this scale are very scarce. We performed a series of experiments, up to 10 m long, over a period of 10 weeks. Beside the temporal evolution of the mechanical properties of the snowpack, we found that crack speeds were highest for tests resulting in full propagation. Based on these findings, an index for self-sustained crack propagation is proposed.
Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke, Niko Wanders, Karin van der Wiel, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 65–89, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we developed a machine learning model to identify dominant controls of wildfire in Fennoscandia and produce monthly fire danger probability maps. The dominant control was shallow-soil water anomaly, followed by air temperature and deep soil water. The model proved skilful with a similar performance as the existing Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI). We highlight the benefit of using data-driven models jointly with other fire models to improve fire monitoring and prediction.
Yi Victor Wang and Antonia Sebastian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4103–4118, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4103-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4103-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this article, we propose an equivalent hazard magnitude scale and a method to evaluate and compare the strengths of natural hazard events across different hazard types, including earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, droughts, forest fires, tornadoes, cold waves, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. With our method, we determine that both the February 2021 North American cold wave event and Hurricane Harvey in 2017 were equivalent to a magnitude 7.5 earthquake in hazard strength.
Michael A. Storey and Owen F. Price
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4039–4062, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4039-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4039-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Models are needed to understand and predict pollutant output from forest fires so fire agencies can reduce smoke-related risks to human health. We modelled air quality (PM2.5) based on fire area and weather variables. We found fire area and boundary layer height were influential on predictions, with distance, temperature, wind speed and relative humidity also important. The models predicted reasonably accurately in comparison to other existing methods but would benefit from further development.
Tomás Calheiros, Akli Benali, Mário Pereira, João Silva, and João Nunes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4019–4037, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4019-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4019-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Fire weather indices are used to assess the effect of weather on wildfires. Fire weather risk was computed and combined with large wildfires in Portugal. Results revealed the influence of vegetation cover: municipalities with a prevalence of shrublands, located in eastern parts, burnt under less extreme conditions than those with higher forested areas, situated in coastal regions. These findings are a novelty for fire science in Portugal and should be considered for fire management.
Ana C. L. Sá, Bruno Aparicio, Akli Benali, Chiara Bruni, Michele Salis, Fábio Silva, Martinho Marta-Almeida, Susana Pereira, Alfredo Rocha, and José Pereira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3917–3938, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3917-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing landscape wildfire connectivity supported by wildfire spread simulations can improve fire hazard assessment and fuel management plans. Weather severity determines the degree of fuel patch connectivity and thus the potential to spread large and intense wildfires. Mapping highly connected patches in the landscape highlights patch candidates for prior fuel treatments, which ultimately will contribute to creating fire-resilient Mediterranean landscapes.
Simon K. Allen, Ashim Sattar, Owen King, Guoqing Zhang, Atanu Bhattacharya, Tandong Yao, and Tobias Bolch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3765–3785, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study demonstrates how the threat of a very large outburst from a future lake can be feasibly assessed alongside that from current lakes to inform disaster risk management within a transboundary basin between Tibet and Nepal. Results show that engineering measures and early warning systems would need to be coupled with effective land use zoning and programmes to strengthen local response capacities in order to effectively reduce the risk associated with current and future outburst events.
Markéta Součková, Roman Juras, Kryštof Dytrt, Vojtěch Moravec, Johanna Ruth Blöcher, and Martin Hanel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3501–3525, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3501-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3501-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Avalanches are natural hazards that threaten people and infrastructure. With climate change, avalanche activity is changing. We analysed the change in frequency and size of avalanches in the Krkonoše Mountains, Czechia, and detected important variables with machine learning tools from 1979–2020. Wet avalanches in February and March have increased, and slab avalanches have decreased and become smaller. The identified variables and their threshold levels may help in avalanche decision-making.
Annalie Dorph, Erica Marshall, Kate A. Parkins, and Trent D. Penman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3487–3499, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3487-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfire spatial patterns are determined by fire ignition sources and vegetation fuel moisture. Fire ignitions can be mediated by humans (owing to proximity to human infrastructure) or caused by lightning (owing to fuel moisture, average annual rainfall and local weather). When moisture in dead vegetation is below 20 % the probability of a wildfire increases. The results of this research enable accurate spatial mapping of ignition probability to aid fire suppression efforts and future research.
John Sykes, Pascal Haegeli, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3247–3270, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3247-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3247-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Automated snow avalanche terrain mapping provides an efficient method for large-scale assessment of avalanche hazards, which informs risk management decisions for transportation and recreation. This research reduces the cost of developing avalanche terrain maps by using satellite imagery and open-source software as well as improving performance in forested terrain. The research relies on local expertise to evaluate accuracy, so the methods are broadly applicable in mountainous regions worldwide.
Ivana Čavlina Tomašević, Kevin K. W. Cheung, Višnjica Vučetić, Paul Fox-Hughes, Kristian Horvath, Maja Telišman Prtenjak, Paul J. Beggs, Barbara Malečić, and Velimir Milić
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3143–3165, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3143-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3143-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
One of the most severe and impactful urban wildfire events in Croatian history has been reconstructed and analyzed. The study identified some important meteorological influences related to the event: the synoptic conditions of the Azores anticyclone, cold front, and upper-level shortwave trough all led to the highest fire weather index in 2017. A low-level jet, locally known as bura wind that can be explained by hydraulic jump theory, was the dynamic trigger of the event.
Adam Emmer, Simon K. Allen, Mark Carey, Holger Frey, Christian Huggel, Oliver Korup, Martin Mergili, Ashim Sattar, Georg Veh, Thomas Y. Chen, Simon J. Cook, Mariana Correas-Gonzalez, Soumik Das, Alejandro Diaz Moreno, Fabian Drenkhan, Melanie Fischer, Walter W. Immerzeel, Eñaut Izagirre, Ramesh Chandra Joshi, Ioannis Kougkoulos, Riamsara Kuyakanon Knapp, Dongfeng Li, Ulfat Majeed, Stephanie Matti, Holly Moulton, Faezeh Nick, Valentine Piroton, Irfan Rashid, Masoom Reza, Anderson Ribeiro de Figueiredo, Christian Riveros, Finu Shrestha, Milan Shrestha, Jakob Steiner, Noah Walker-Crawford, Joanne L. Wood, and Jacob C. Yde
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3041–3061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have attracted increased research attention recently. In this work, we review GLOF research papers published between 2017 and 2021 and complement the analysis with research community insights gained from the 2021 GLOF conference we organized. The transdisciplinary character of the conference together with broad geographical coverage allowed us to identify progress, trends and challenges in GLOF research and outline future research needs and directions.
Fátima Arrogante-Funes, Inmaculada Aguado, and Emilio Chuvieco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2981–3003, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2981-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2981-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We show that ecological value might be reduced by 50 % due to fire perturbation in ecosystems that have not developed in the presence of fire and/or that present changes in the fire regime. The biomes most affected are tropical and subtropical forests, tundra, and mangroves. Integration of biotic and abiotic fire regime and regeneration factors resulted in a powerful way to map ecological vulnerability to fire and develop assessments to generate adaptation plans of management in forest masses.
Aubrey Miller, Pascal Sirguey, Simon Morris, Perry Bartelt, Nicolas Cullen, Todd Redpath, Kevin Thompson, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2673–2701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2673-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2673-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazard modelers simulate mass movements to better anticipate the risk to people and infrastructure. These simulations require accurate digital elevation models. We test the sensitivity of a well-established snow avalanche model (RAMMS) to the source and spatial resolution of the elevation model. We find key differences in the digital representation of terrain greatly affect the simulated avalanche results, with implications for hazard planning.
Kathryn C. Fisher, Pascal Haegeli, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1973–2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1973-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Avalanche bulletins include travel and terrain statements to provide recreationists with tangible guidance about how to apply the hazard information. We examined which bulletin users pay attention to these statements, what determines their usefulness, and how they could be improved. Our study shows that reducing jargon and adding simple explanations can significantly improve the usefulness of the statements for users with lower levels of avalanche awareness education who depend on this advice.
Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Frank Techel, Martin Hendrick, Michele Volpi, Alec van Herwijnen, Tasko Olevski, Guillaume Obozinski, Fernando Pérez-Cruz, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2031–2056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2031-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2031-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A fully data-driven approach to predicting the danger level for dry-snow avalanche conditions in Switzerland was developed. Two classifiers were trained using a large database of meteorological data, snow cover simulations, and danger levels. The models performed well throughout the Swiss Alps, reaching a performance similar to the current experience-based avalanche forecasts. This approach shows the potential to be a valuable supplementary decision support tool for assessing avalanche hazard.
Frank Techel, Stephanie Mayer, Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Günter Schmudlach, and Kurt Winkler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1911–1930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1911-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1911-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Can the resolution of forecasts of avalanche danger be increased by using a combination of absolute and comparative judgments? Using 5 years of Swiss avalanche forecasts, we show that, on average, sub-levels assigned to a danger level reflect the expected increase in the number of locations with poor snow stability and in the number and size of avalanches with increasing forecast sub-level.
Yves Bühler, Peter Bebi, Marc Christen, Stefan Margreth, Lukas Stoffel, Andreas Stoffel, Christoph Marty, Gregor Schmucki, Andrin Caviezel, Roderick Kühne, Stephan Wohlwend, and Perry Bartelt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1825–1843, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1825-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1825-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To calculate and visualize the potential avalanche hazard, we develop a method that automatically and efficiently pinpoints avalanche starting zones and simulate their runout for the entire canton of Grisons. The maps produced in this way highlight areas that could be endangered by avalanches and are extremely useful in multiple applications for the cantonal authorities, including the planning of new infrastructure, making alpine regions more safe.
Tero M. Partanen and Mikhail Sofiev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1335–1346, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1335-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1335-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The presented method aims to forecast regional wildfire-emitted radiative power in a time-dependent manner several days in advance. The temporal fire radiative power can be converted to an emission production rate, which can be implemented in air quality forecasting simulations. It is shown that in areas with a high incidence of wildfires, the fire radiative power is quite predictable, but otherwise it is not.
Christos Bountzouklis, Dennis M. Fox, and Elena Di Bernardino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1181–1200, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1181-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1181-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The study addresses the evolution of burned areas in southeastern France from 1970 to 2019 through the scope of a firefighting policy shift in 1994 that resulted in a significant decrease in the burned area. Regions with large fires were particularly impacted, whereas, in other areas, the fires remained frequent and occurred closer to built-up zones. Environmental characteristics such as south-facing slopes and low vegetation (bushes) are increasingly associated with burned areas.
Louis Védrine, Xingyue Li, and Johan Gaume
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1015–1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1015-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1015-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates how forests affect the behaviour of snow avalanches through the evaluation of the amount of snow stopped by the trees and the analysis of energy dissipation mechanisms. Different avalanche features and tree configurations have been examined, leading to the proposal of a unified law for the detrained snow mass. Outcomes from this study can be directly implemented in operational models for avalanche risk assessment and contribute to improved forest management strategy.
Matthew C. Perry, Emilie Vanvyve, Richard A. Betts, and Erika J. Palin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 559–575, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-559-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-559-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In the past, wildfires in the UK have occurred mainly in spring, with occasional events during hot, dry summers. Climate models predict a large future increase in hazardous fire weather conditions in summer. Wildfire can be considered an
emergent riskfor the UK, as past events have not had widespread major impacts, but this could change. The large increase in risk between the 2 °C and 4 °C levels of global warming highlights the importance of global efforts to keep warming below 2 °C.
Cited articles
Abatzoglou, J. T.: Development of gridded surface meteorological data for
ecological applications and modelling, Int. J. Climatol., 33, 121–131,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3413, 2013.
Abatzoglou, J. T. and Brown, T. J.: A comparison of statistical downscaling
methods suited for wildfire applications, Int. J. Climatol., 32,
772–780, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2312, 2012.
Abatzoglou, J. T. and Kolden, C. A.: Relationships between climate and
macroscale area burned in the western United States, Int. J. Wildland Fire,
22, 1003, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF13019, 2013.
Abatzoglou, J. T. and Williams, A. P.: Impact of anthropogenic climate
change on wildfire across western US forests, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113, 11770–11775, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1607171113, 2016.
Aumann, H. H., Chahine, M. T., Gautier, C., Goldberg, M. D., Kalnay, E.,
McMillin, L. M., Revercomb, H., Rosenkranz, P. W., Smith, W. L., Staelin, D.
H., Strow, L. L., and Susskind, J.: AIRS/AMSU/HSB on the aqua mission:
design, science objectives, data products, and processing systems, IEEE
T. Geosci. Remote, 41, 253–264, https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2002.808356,
2003.
Balch, J. K., Bradley, B. A., Abatzoglou, J. T., Nagy, R. C., Fusco, E. J.,
and Mahood, A. L.: Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the
United States, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 114, 2946–2951,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1617394114, 2017.
Bauer, P., Thorpe, A., and Brunet, G.: The quiet revolution of numerical
weather prediction, Nature, 525, 47–55, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14956,
2015.
Behrangi, A., Fetzer, E. J., and Granger, S. L.: Early detection of drought
onset using near surface temperature and humidity observed from space, Int.
J. Remote Sens., 37, 3911–3923, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2016.1204478,
2016.
Bradshaw, L. S., Deeming, J. E., Burgan, R. E., and Cohen, J. D.: The 1978 National Fire-Danger Rating System: technical documentation, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, Ogden, UT, USA, 1984.
Daly, C., Halbleib, M., Smith, J. I., Gibson, W. P., Doggett, M. K., Taylor,
G. H., Curtis, J., Pasteris, P. P., and Curtis, J.: Physiographically
sensitive mapping of climatological temperature and precipitation across the
conterminous United States, Int. J. Climatol., 28, 2031–2064,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1688, 2008.
Finco, M., Quayle, B., Zhang, Y., Lecker, J., Megown, K. A., and Brewer, C.
K.: Monitoring Trends and Burn Severity (MTBS): Monitoring wildfire activity for the past quarter century using landsat data, in: Moving from status to trends: Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) symposium, 4–6 December 2012, Baltimore, MD, USA, Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-P-105, 222–228, 2012.
GFED (Global Fire Emissions Database): Burned area with small fires, GFED4.1s, available at: https://www.globalfiredata.org/data.html, last access: 17 April 2020.
Goldberg, M. D., Yanni Qu, McMillin, L. M., Wolf, W., Zhou, L., and
Divakarla, M.: AIRS near-real-time products and algorithms in support of
operational numerical weather prediction, IEEE T. Geosci. Remote,
41, 379–389, https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2002.808307, 2003.
Grissino Mayer, H. D. and Swetnam, T. W.: Century scale climate forcing of
fire regimes in the American Southwest, Holocene, 10, 213–220,
https://doi.org/10.1191/095968300668451235, 2000.
Holden, Z. A. and Jolly, W. M.: Modeling topographic influences on fuel
moisture and fire danger in complex terrain to improve wildland fire
management decision support, Forest Ecol. Manag., 262, 2133–2141,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2011.08.002, 2011.
Homer, C., Dewitz, J., Yang, L., Jin, S., Danielson, P., Xian, G., Coulston,
J., Herold, N., Wickham, J., and Megown, K.: Completion of the 2011 National
Land Cover Database for the conterminous United States – representing a
decade of land cover change information, Photogramm. Eng. Rem. S.,
81, 345–354, 2015.
Houborg, R., Rodell, M., Li, B., Reichle, R., and Zaitchik, B. F.: Drought
indicators based on model-assimilated Gravity Recovery and Climate
Experiment (GRACE) terrestrial water storage observations: GRACE-Based
Drought Indicators, Water Resour. Res., 48, W07525, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR011291,
2012.
Jensen, D., Reager, J., Zajic, B., Rousseau, N., Rodell, M., and Hinkley, E.:
The sensitivity of US wildfire occurrence to pre-season soil moisture
conditions across ecosystems, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 14–21,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9853, 2017.
Jin, Y., Randerson, J. T., Faivre, N., Capps, S., Hall, A., and Goulden, M.
L.: Contrasting controls on wildland fires in Southern California during
periods with and without Santa Ana winds: Controls on Southern California
fires, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 119, 432–450,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JG002541, 2014.
Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L.,
Iredell, M., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J., Zhu, Y., Leetmaa, A.,
Reynolds, R., Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Higgins, W., Janowiak, J., Mo, K.
C., Ropelewski, C., Wang, J., Jenne, R., and Joseph, D.: The NCEP/NCAR
40-Year Reanalysis Project, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 437–471,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2,
1996.
Littell, J. S., McKenzie, D., Peterson, D. L., and Westerling, A. L.: Climate
and wildfire area burned in western U.S. ecoprovinces, 1916–2003, Ecol.
Appl., 19, 1003–1021, https://doi.org/10.1890/07-1183.1, 2009.
Littell, J. S., Oneil, E. E., McKenzie, D., Hicke, J. A., Lutz, J. A.,
Norheim, R. A., and Elsner, M. M.: Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and
climatic change in Washington State, USA, Climatic Change, 102, 129–158,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9858-x, 2010.
MRLC (Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics): National Land Cover Database 2011, NLCD2011, available at: https://www.mrlc.gov/data, last access: 17 April 2020.
NASA: AIRS/Aqua L3 Monthly Standard Physical Retrieval (AIRS-only) 1 degree x 1 degree V006, AIRS3STM, available at: https://airs.jpl.nasa.gov/data/get_data, last access: 17 April 2020.
NASA-NDMC (National Drought Mitigation Center): GRACE-based Surface Soil Moisture Drought Indicator, GRACE_SFSM, available at: https://nasagrace.unl.edu, last access: 17 April 2020.
Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V.: River flow forecasting through conceptual
models part I – A discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6, 1970.
Page, S. E., Siegert, F., Rieley, J. O., Boehm, H.-D. V., Jaya, A., and
Limin, S.: The amount of carbon released from peat and forest fires in
Indonesia during 1997, Nature, 420, 61–65,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01131, 2002.
Parks, S. A., Parisien, M.-A., Miller, C., and Dobrowski, S. Z.: Fire
Activity and Severity in the Western US Vary along Proxy Gradients
Representing Fuel Amount and Fuel Moisture, PLoS ONE,
9, e99699, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0099699, 2014.
Randerson, J. T., Liu, H., Flanner, M. G., Chambers, S. D., Jin, Y., Hess,
P. G., Pfister, G., Mack, M. C., Treseder, K. K., Welp, L. R., Chapin, F.
S., Harden, J. W., Goulden, M. L., Lyons, E., Neff, J. C., Schuur, E. A. G.,
and Zender, C. S.: The impact of boreal forest fire on climate warming,
Science, 314, 1130–1132, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1132075, 2006.
Reager, J., Thomas, A., Sproles, E., Rodell, M., Beaudoing, H., Li, B., and
Famiglietti, J.: Assimilation of GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage
Observations into a Land Surface Model for the Assessment of Regional Flood
Potential, Remote Sens., 7, 14663–14679, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs71114663, 2015.
Roads, J. O., Chen, S.-C., Kanamitsu, M., and Juang, H.: Surface water
characteristics in NCEP global spectral model and reanalysis, J. Geophys.
Res.-Atmos., 104, 19307–19327, https://doi.org/10.1029/98JD01166, 1999.
Seager, R., Hooks, A., Williams, A. P., Cook, B., Nakamura, J., and
Henderson, N.: Climatology, variability, and trends in the U.S. Vapor
pressure deficit, an important fire-related meteorological quantity, J.
Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 54, 1121–1141, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0321.1,
2015.
Shabbar, A., Skinner, W., and Flannigan, M. D.: Prediction of Seasonal Forest
Fire Severity in Canada from Large-Scale Climate Patterns, J. Appl.
Meteorol. Clim., 50, 785–799, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAMC2547.1, 2011.
Stavros, E. N., Abatzoglou, J., Larkin, N. K., McKenzie, D., and Steel, E.
A.: Climate and very large wildland fires in the contiguous western USA,
Int. J. Wildland Fire, 23, 899–914, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF13169, 2014a.
Stavros, E. N., Abatzoglou, J. T., McKenzie, D., and Larkin, N. K.: Regional
projections of the likelihood of very large wildland fires under a changing
climate in the contiguous Western United States, Climatic Change, 126,
455–468, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1229-6, 2014b.
Swetnam, T. W. and Betancourt, J. L.: Mesoscale Disturbance and Ecological
Response to Decadal Climatic Variability in the American Southwest, J.
Climate, 11, 3128–3147, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<3128:MDAERT>2.0.CO;2, 1998.
Tapley, B. D., Bettadpur, S., Watkins, M., and Reigber, C.: The gravity
recovery and climate experiment: Mission overview and early results: GRACE
Mission Overview And Early Results, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L09607,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL019920, 2004.
USFS: The Rising Cost of Wildfire Operations: Effects on the Forest
Service's Non-Fire Work, available at: https://www.fs.usda.gov/sites/default/files/2015-Fire-Budget-Report.pdf (last access: 19 April 2020), 2015.
van der Werf, G. R., Randerson, J. T., Giglio, L., van Leeuwen, T. T., Chen, Y., Rogers, B. M., Mu, M., van Marle, M. J. E., Morton, D. C., Collatz, G. J., Yokelson, R. J., and Kasibhatla, P. S.: Global fire emissions estimates during 1997–2016, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 697–720, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-697-2017, 2017.
Weiss, J. L., Betancourt, J. L., and Overpeck, J. T.: Climatic limits on
foliar growth during major droughts in the southwestern USA: Growth Limits
During Southwest Droughts, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 117, G03031, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JG001993, 2012.
Westerling, A. L., Gershunov, A., Cayan, D. R., and Barnett, T. P.: Long lead
statistical forecasts of area burned in western U.S. wildfires by ecosystem
province, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 11, 257–266, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF02009, 2002.
Westerling, A. L., Turner, M. G., Smithwick, E. A. H., Romme, W. H., and
Ryan, M. G.: Continued warming could transform Greater Yellowstone fire
regimes by mid-21st century, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108, 13165–13170,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1110199108, 2011.
Williams, A. P., Seager, R., Macalady, A. K., Berkelhammer, M., Crimmins, M.
A., Swetnam, T. W., Trugman, A. T., Buenning, N., Noone, D., Mcdowell, N.
G., Hryniw, N., Mora, C. I., and Rahn, T.: Correlations between components of
the water balance and burned area reveal new insights for predicting forest
fire area in the southwest United States, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 24,
14–26, 2014.
Xiao, J. and Zhuang, Q.: Drought effects on large fire activity in Canadian
and Alaskan forests, Environ. Res. Lett., 2, 044003,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/2/4/044003, 2007.
Zaitchik, B. F., Rodell, M., and Reichle, R. H.: Assimilation of GRACE
Terrestrial Water Storage Data into a Land Surface Model: Results for the
Mississippi River Basin, J. Hydrometeorol., 9, 535–548,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JHM951.1, 2008.
Short summary
Wildfires result in billions of dollars of losses each year. Most wildfire predictions have a 10 d lead-time. This study introduces a framework for a 1-month lead-time prediction of wildfires based on vapor pressure deficit and surface soil moisture in the US. The results show that the model can successfully predict burned area with relatively small margins of error. This is especially important for operational wildfire management such as national resource allocation.
Wildfires result in billions of dollars of losses each year. Most wildfire predictions have a...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint