Articles | Volume 20, issue 4
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1097–1106, 2020
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1097–1106, 2020

Research article 24 Apr 2020

Research article | 24 Apr 2020

Satellite hydrology observations as operational indicators of forecasted fire danger across the contiguous United States

Alireza Farahmand et al.

Data sets

Burned area with small fires GFED (Global Fire Emissions Database)

National Land Cover Database 2011 MRLC (Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics)

AIRS/Aqua L3 Monthly Standard Physical Retrieval (AIRS-only) 1 degree x 1 degree V006 NASA

GRACE-based Surface Soil Moisture Drought Indicator NASA-NDMC (National Drought Mitigation Center)

Short summary
Wildfires result in billions of dollars of losses each year. Most wildfire predictions have a 10 d lead-time. This study introduces a framework for a 1-month lead-time prediction of wildfires based on vapor pressure deficit and surface soil moisture in the US. The results show that the model can successfully predict burned area with relatively small margins of error. This is especially important for operational wildfire management such as national resource allocation.
Final-revised paper