Articles | Volume 19, issue 5
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1087–1103, 2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
27 May 2019
Research article | 27 May 2019
Chilling accumulation in fruit trees in Spain under climate change
Alfredo Rodríguez et al.
No articles found.
Silje Lund Sørland, Roman Brogli, Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Emmanuele Russo, Jonas Van de Walle, Bodo Ahrens, Ivonne Anders, Edoardo Bucchignani, Edouard L. Davin, Marie-Estelle Demory, Alessandro Dosio, Hendrik Feldmann, Barbara Früh, Beate Geyer, Klaus Keuler, Donghyun Lee, Delei Li, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Seung-Ki Min, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Burkhardt Rockel, Christoph Schär, Christian Steger, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5125–5154,Short summary
We review the contribution from the CLM-Community to regional climate projections following the CORDEX framework over Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia, and Africa. How the model configuration, horizontal and vertical resolutions, and choice of driving data influence the model results for the five domains is assessed, with the purpose of aiding the planning and design of regional climate simulations in the future.
Christophe Lavaysse, Carmelo Cammalleri, Alessandro Dosio, Gerard van der Schrier, Andrea Toreti, and Jürgen Vogt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 91–104,Short summary
Extreme-temperature anomalies such as heat and cold waves may have strong impacts on human activities and health. Providing a robust operational system to monitor extreme-temperature anomalies in Europe, developed and validated in this study, is thus of prime importance. This work exposes the methodology and the climatology of these events. It also discusses the associated uncertainties according to the datasets and the methods used.
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological HazardsSkillful decadal prediction of German Bight storm activityDroughts in Germany: performance of regional climate models in reproducing observed characteristicsAnalysis of the relationship between yield in cereals and remotely sensed fAPAR in the framework of monitoring drought impacts in EuropeMeteorological, impact and climate perspectives of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event in the Berlin metropolitan areaUsing high-resolution global climate models from the PRIMAVERA project to create a European winter windstorm event setReal-time urban rainstorm and waterlogging disaster detection by Weibo usersSensitivity of simulating Typhoon Haiyan (2013) using WRF: the role of cumulus convection, surface flux parameterizations, spectral nudging, and initial and boundary conditionsA satellite lightning observation operator for storm-scale numerical weather predictionLessons from the 2018–2019 European droughts: a collective need for unifying drought risk managementSeasonal fire danger forecasts for supporting fire prevention management in an eastern Mediterranean environment: the case study of Attica, GreeceIdealized simulations of Mei-yu rainfall in Taiwan under uniform southwesterly flow using a cloud-resolving modelTime of Emergence of compound events: contribution of univariate and dependence propertiesHotspots for warm and dry summers in RomaniaDevelopment of a forecast-oriented kilometre-resolution ocean–atmosphere coupled system for western Europe and sensitivity study for a severe weather situationTropical cyclone storm surge probabilities for the east coast of the United States: a cyclone-based perspectiveHydrometeorological analysis of the 12 and 13 September 2019 widespread flash flooding in eastern SpainHuman influence on growing-period frosts like the early April 2021 in Central FranceMonitoring the daily evolution and extent of snow droughtChallenges assessing the effect of AMVs to improve the predictability of a medicane weather event using the EnKF. Storm-scale analysis and short-range forecastCharacteristics of precipitation extremes over the Nordic region: added value of convection-permitting modelingAdaptation and application of the large LAERTES-EU regional climate model ensemble for modeling hydrological extremes: a pilot study for the Rhine basinInvited perspectives: how does climate change affect the risk of natural hazards? Challenges and step changes from the reinsurance perspectiveNowcasting thunderstorm hazards using machine learning: the impact of data sources on performanceUncovering the veil of night light changes in times of catastropheSpatio-temporal evolution of wet–dry event features and their transition across the Upper Jhelum Basin (UJB) in South AsiaPrecipitation stable isotopic signatures of tropical cyclones in Metropolitan Manila, Philippines, show significant negative isotopic excursionsEvaluation of Mei-yu heavy-rainfall quantitative precipitation forecasts in Taiwan by a cloud-resolving model for three seasons of 2012–2014Modelling the volcanic ash plume from Eyjafjallajökull eruption (May 2010) over Europe: evaluation of the benefit of source term improvements and of the assimilation of aerosol measurementsApplying machine learning for drought prediction in a perfect model framework using data from a large ensemble of climate simulationsUsing high-resolution regional climate models to estimate return levels of daily extreme precipitation over BavariaValidating a Tailored Disaster Risk Assessment Methodology: Drought Risk Assessment in Local PNG RegionsAn ensemble of state-of-the-art ash dispersion models: towards probabilistic forecasts to increase the resilience of air traffic against volcanic eruptionsA climatology of sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation in Switzerland and its links to extreme dischargeImpact of large wildfires on PM10 levels and human mortality in PortugalInvestigating 3D and 4D variational rapid-update-cycling assimilation of weather radar reflectivity for a heavy rain event in central ItalyVariability in lightning hazard over Indian region with respect to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phasesSocial sensing of high-impact rainfall events worldwide: a benchmark comparison against manually curated impact observationsAttribution of the role of climate change in the forest fires in Sweden 2018Invited perspectives: The ECMWF strategy 2021–2030 challenges in the area of natural hazardsImplementation of WRF-Hydro at two drainage basins in the region of Attica, Greece, for operational flood forecastingIntense windstorms in the northeastern United StatesReview article: Risk management framework of environmental hazards and extremes in Mediterranean ecosystemsGlobal ground strike point characteristics in negative downward lightning flashes – Part 1: ObservationsGlobal ground strike point characteristics in negative downward lightning flashes – Part 2: Algorithm validationAssessing internal changes in the future structure of dry–hot compound events: the case of the PyreneesChanges in drought features at the European level over the last 120 yearsAssimilation of Himawari-8 imager radiance data with the WRF-3DVAR system for the prediction of Typhoon SoudelorAtmospheric conditions leading to an exceptional fatal flash flood in the Negev Desert, IsraelReview article: Towards resilient vital infrastructure systems – challenges, opportunities, and future research agendaFatalities associated with the severe weather conditions in the Czech Republic, 2000–2019
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Patrick Pieper, Ralf Weisse, and Johanna Baehr
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3993–4009,Short summary
Accurate predictions of storm activity are desirable for coastal management. We investigate how well a climate model can predict storm activity in the German Bight 1–10 years in advance. We let the model predict the past, compare these predictions to observations, and analyze whether the model is doing better than simple statistical predictions. We find that the model generally shows good skill for extreme periods, but the prediction timeframes with good skill depend on the type of prediction.
Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3875–3895,Short summary
The influence of model resolution and settings on drought reproduction in Germany between 1980–2009 is investigated here. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Gridded observational data sets serve as reference. Regarding the reproduction of drought characteristics, all models perform on a similar level, while for trends, only the modified model produces reliable outputs.
Carmelo Cammalleri, Niall McCormick, and Andrea Toreti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3737–3750,Short summary
We evaluated the ability of vegetation indices derived from satellite data to capture annual yield variations across Europe. The strength of the relationship varies throughout the year, with March–October representing the optimal period in most cases. Spatial differences were also observed, with the best results obtained in the Mediterranean regions.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Markus Augenstein, Georgy Ayzel, Klemens Barfus, Ribu Cherian, Lisa Dillenardt, Felix Fauer, Hendrik Feldmann, Maik Heistermann, Alexia Karwat, Frank Kaspar, Heidi Kreibich, Etor Emanuel Lucio-Eceiza, Edmund P. Meredith, Susanna Mohr, Deborah Niermann, Stephan Pfahl, Florian Ruff, Henning W. Rust, Lukas Schoppa, Thomas Schwitalla, Stella Steidl, Annegret H. Thieken, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Johannes Quaas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3701–3724,Short summary
In a warming climate, extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent. To advance our knowledge on such phenomena, we present a multidisciplinary analysis of a selected case study that took place on 29 June 2017 in the Berlin metropolitan area. Our analysis provides evidence of the extremeness of the case from the atmospheric and the impacts perspectives as well as new insights on the physical mechanisms of the event at the meteorological and climate scales.
Julia F. Lockwood, Galina S. Guentchev, Alexander Alabaster, Simon J. Brown, Erika J. Palin, Malcolm J. Roberts, and Hazel E. Thornton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3585–3606,Short summary
We describe how we developed a set of 1300 years' worth of European winter windstorm footprints, using a multi-model ensemble of high-resolution global climate models, for use by the insurance industry to analyse windstorm risk. The large amount of data greatly reduces uncertainty on risk estimates compared to using shorter observational data sets and also allows the relationship between windstorm risk and predictable large-scale climate indices to be quantified.
Haoran Zhu, Priscilla Obeng Oforiwaa, and Guofeng Su
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3349–3359,Short summary
We promote a new method to detect waterlogging disasters. Residents are directly affected by waterlogging, and we can collect their comments on social networks. Compared to official-authentication and personal-certification users, the microblogs posted by general users can better show the intensity and timing of waterlogging. Through text and sentiment features, we can separate microblogs with waterlogging information from other ones and mark high-risk regions on maps.
Rafaela Jane Delfino, Gerry Bagtasa, Kevin Hodges, and Pier Luigi Vidale
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3285–3307,Short summary
We showed the effects of altering the choice of cumulus schemes, surface flux options, and spectral nudging with a high level of sensitivity to cumulus schemes in simulating an intense typhoon. We highlight the advantage of using an ensemble of cumulus parameterizations to take into account the uncertainty in simulating typhoons such as Haiyan in 2013. This study is useful in addressing the growing need to plan and prepare for as well as reduce the impacts of intense typhoons in the Philippines.
Pauline Combarnous, Felix Erdmann, Olivier Caumont, Éric Defer, and Maud Martet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2943–2962,Short summary
The objective of this study is to prepare the assimilation of satellite lightning data in the French regional numerical weather prediction system. The assimilation of lightning data requires an observation operator, based on empirical relationships between the lightning observations and a set of proxies derived from the numerical weather prediction system variables. We fit machine learning regression models to our data to yield those relationships and to investigate the best proxy for lightning.
Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lauri Ahopelto, Manuela I. Brunner, Claudia Teutschbein, Doris E. Wendt, Vytautas Akstinas, Sigrid J. Bakke, Lucy J. Barker, Lenka Bartošová, Agrita Briede, Carmelo Cammalleri, Ksenija Cindrić Kalin, Lucia De Stefano, Miriam Fendeková, David C. Finger, Marijke Huysmans, Mirjana Ivanov, Jaak Jaagus, Jiří Jakubínský, Svitlana Krakovska, Gregor Laaha, Monika Lakatos, Kiril Manevski, Mathias Neumann Andersen, Nina Nikolova, Marzena Osuch, Pieter van Oel, Kalina Radeva, Renata J. Romanowicz, Elena Toth, Mirek Trnka, Marko Urošev, Julia Urquijo Reguera, Eric Sauquet, Aleksandra Stevkov, Lena M. Tallaksen, Iryna Trofimova, Anne F. Van Loon, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Niko Wanders, Micha Werner, Patrick Willems, and Nenad Živković
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2201–2217,Short summary
Recent drought events caused enormous damage in Europe. We therefore questioned the existence and effect of current drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how drought is perceived by relevant stakeholders. Over 700 participants from 28 European countries provided insights into drought hazard and impact perception and current management strategies. The study concludes with an urgent need to collectively combat drought risk via a European macro-level drought governance approach.
Anna Karali, Konstantinos V. Varotsos, Christos Giannakopoulos, Panagiotis P. Nastos, and Maria Hatzaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
As climate change leads to more frequent and severe fires, forecasting fire danger before fire season begins can support fire management. This study aims to provide high resolution probabilistic seasonal fire danger forecasts in a Mediterranean environment and assess their ability to capture years with increased fire activity. Results indicate that forecasts are skillful in predicting above normal fire danger conditions and can be exploited by regional authorities in fire prevention management.
Chung-Chieh Wang, Pi-Yu Chuang, Shi-Ting Chen, Dong-In Lee, and Kazuhisa Tsuboki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1795–1817,Short summary
In this study, cloud-resolving simulations are performed under idealized and uniform southwesterly flow direction and speed to investigate the rainfall regimes in the Mei-yu season and the role of complex mesoscale topography on rainfall without the influence of unwanted disturbances, including a low-Froude number regime where the thermodynamic effects and island circulation dominate, a high-Froude number regime where topographic rainfall in a flow-over scenario prevails, and a mixed regime.
Bastien François and Mathieu Vrac
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
Compound events (CEs) result from a combination of several climate phenomena. In this study, we propose a new methodology to assess the time of emergence of CEs probabilities and to quantify the contribution of marginal and dependence properties of climate phenomena to the overall CE probability changes. By applying our methodology to two case studies, we show the importance of considering both marginal and dependence properties changes for future risk assessments due to compound events.
Viorica Nagavciuc, Patrick Scholz, and Monica Ionita
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1347–1369,Short summary
Here we have assessed the variability and trends of hot and dry summers in Romania. The length, spatial extent, and frequency of heat waves in Romania have increased significantly over the last 70 years, while no significant changes have been observed in the drought conditions. The increased frequency of heat waves, especially after the 1990s, could be partially explained by an increase in the geopotential height over the eastern part of Europe.
Joris Pianezze, Jonathan Beuvier, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Guillaume Samson, Ghislain Faure, and Gilles Garric
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1301–1324,Short summary
Most numerical weather and oceanic prediction systems do not consider ocean–atmosphere feedback during forecast, and this can lead to significant forecast errors, notably in cases of severe situations. A new high-resolution coupled ocean–atmosphere system is presented in this paper. This forecast-oriented system, based on current regional operational systems and evaluated using satellite and in situ observations, shows that the coupling improves both atmospheric and oceanic forecasts.
Katherine L. Towey, James F. Booth, Alejandra Rodriguez Enriquez, and Thomas Wahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1287–1300,Short summary
Coastal flooding due to storm surge from tropical cyclones is a significant hazard. The influence of tropical cyclone characteristics, including its proximity, intensity, path angle, and speed, on the magnitude of storm surge is examined along the eastern United States. No individual characteristic was found to be strongly related to how much surge occurred at a site, though there is an increased likelihood of high surge occurring when tropical cyclones are both strong and close to a location.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1159–1179,Short summary
On 12 and 13 September 2019, a long-lasting heavy precipitation episode resulted in widespread flash flooding over eastern Spain. Well-organized and quasi-stationary convective structures impacted a vast area with rainfall amounts over 200 mm. The very dry initial soil moisture conditions resulted in a dampened hydrological response: until runoff thresholds were exceeded, infiltration-excess generation did not start. This threshold-based behaviour is explored through simple scaling theory.
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Rémy Bonnet, Sihan Li, Yoann Robin, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Brigitte Dubuisson, Nicolas Viovy, Markus Reichstein, Friederike Otto, and Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
A depp frost occurred in early April 2021, inducing severe damages in grapevine and fruit trees in France. We found that such extreme frosts occurring after the start of the growing season such as those of April 2021 are currently about 2 °C colder [0.5 °C to 3.3 °C] in observations than in pre-industrial climate. This observed intensification of growing-period frosts is attributable, at least in part, to human-caused climate change, making the 2021 event 50 % more likely [10 %–110 %].
Benjamin J. Hatchett, Alan M. Rhoades, and Daniel J. McEvoy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 869–890,Short summary
Snow droughts, or below-average snowpack, can result from either dry conditions and/or rainfall instead of snowfall. Monitoring snow drought through time and across space is important to evaluate when snow drought onset occurred, its duration, spatial extent, and severity as well as what conditions created it or led to its termination. We present visualization techniques, including a web-based snow-drought-tracking tool, to evaluate snow droughts and assess their impacts in the western US.
Diego Saúl Carrió
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript has not been submittedShort summary
The accurate prediction of medicanes still remains a key challenge in the scientific community because of their poor predictability. In this study we assimilate different observations to improve the trajectory and intensity forecasts of the Qendresa's medicane. Results show the importance of using data assimilation techniques to improve the estimate of the atmospheric flow in the upper level atmosphere, which has been showed key to improve the prediction of Qendresa.
Erika Médus, Emma D. Thomassen, Danijel Belušić, Petter Lind, Peter Berg, Jens H. Christensen, Ole B. Christensen, Andreas Dobler, Erik Kjellström, Jonas Olsson, and Wei Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 693–711,Short summary
We evaluate the skill of a regional climate model, HARMONIE-Climate, to capture the present-day characteristics of heavy precipitation in the Nordic region and investigate the added value provided by a convection-permitting model version. The higher model resolution improves the representation of hourly heavy- and extreme-precipitation events and their diurnal cycle. The results indicate the benefits of convection-permitting models for constructing climate change projections over the region.
Florian Ehmele, Lisa-Ann Kautz, Hendrik Feldmann, Yi He, Martin Kadlec, Fanni D. Kelemen, Hilke S. Lentink, Patrick Ludwig, Desmond Manful, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 677–692,Short summary
For various applications, it is crucial to have profound knowledge of the frequency, severity, and risk of extreme flood events. Such events are characterized by very long return periods which observations can not cover. We use a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations as input for a hydrological model. Precipitation data were post-processed to reduce systematic errors. The representation of precipitation and discharge is improved, and estimates of long return periods become robust.
Anja T. Rädler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 659–664,Short summary
Natural disasters are causing high losses worldwide. To adequately deal with this loss potential, a reinsurer has to quantitatively assess the individual risks of natural catastrophes and how these risks are changing over time with respect to climate change. From a reinsurance perspective, the most pressing scientific challenges related to natural hazards are addressed, and broad changes are suggested that should be achieved by the scientific community to address these hazards in the future.
Jussi Leinonen, Ulrich Hamann, Urs Germann, and John R. Mecikalski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 577–597,Short summary
We evaluate the usefulness of different data sources and variables to the short-term prediction (
nowcasting) of severe thunderstorms using machine learning. Machine-learning models are trained with data from weather radars, satellite images, lightning detection and weather forecasts and with terrain elevation data. We analyze the benefits provided by each of the data sources to predicting hazards (heavy precipitation, lightning and hail) caused by the thunderstorms.
Vincent G. Schippers and Wouter J. W. Botzen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
Researchers studying economic impacts of natural disasters increasingly use night light as a proxy for local economic activity, when socioeconomic data are unavailable. But often it is unclear what changes in light intensity represent in the context of disasters. We study this in detail for hurricane Katrina, and find a strong correlation with building damage and changes in population, employment, and GDP. We conclude that night light data are useful to study local impacts of natural disasters.
Rubina Ansari and Giovanna Grossi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 287–302,Short summary
The current research investigated spatio-temporal evolution of wet–dry events collectively, their characteristics, and their transition (wet to dry and dry to wet) across the Upper Jhelum Basin using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration (SPEI) at a monthly timescale. The results provide significant knowledge to identify and locate most vulnerable geographical hotspots of extreme events, providing the basis for more effective risk reduction and climate change adaptation plans.
Dominik Jackisch, Bi Xuan Yeo, Adam D. Switzer, Shaoneng He, Danica Linda M. Cantarero, Fernando P. Siringan, and Nathalie F. Goodkin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 213–226,Short summary
The Philippines is a nation very vulnerable to devastating typhoons. We investigate if stable isotopes of precipitation can be used to detect typhoon activities in the Philippines based on daily isotope measurements from Metropolitan Manila. We find that strong typhoons such as Rammasun, which occurred in July 2014, leave detectable isotopic signals in precipitation. Besides other factors, the distance of the typhoon to the sampling site plays a key role in influencing the signal.
Chung-Chieh Wang, Pi-Yu Chuang, Chih-Sheng Chang, Kazuhisa Tsuboki, Shin-Yi Huang, and Guo-Chen Leu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 23–40,Short summary
This study indicated that the Cloud-Resolving Storm Simulator (CReSS) model significantly improved heavy-rainfall quantitative precipitation forecasts in the Taiwan Mei-yu season. At high resolution, the model has higher threat scores and is more skillful in predicting larger rainfall events compared to smaller ones. And the strength of the model mainly lies in the topographic rainfall rather than less predictable and migratory events due to nonlinearity.
Matthieu Plu, Guillaume Bigeard, Bojan Sič, Emanuele Emili, Luca Bugliaro, Laaziz El Amraoui, Jonathan Guth, Beatrice Josse, Lucia Mona, and Dennis Piontek
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3731–3747,Short summary
Volcanic eruptions that spread out ash over large areas, like Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, may have huge economic consequences due to flight cancellations. In this article, we demonstrate the benefits of source term improvement and of data assimilation for quantifying volcanic ash concentrations. The work, which was supported by the EUNADICS-AV project, is the first one, to our knowledge, that demonstrates the benefit of the assimilation of ground-based lidar data over Europe during an eruption.
Elizaveta Felsche and Ralf Ludwig
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3679–3691,Short summary
This study applies artificial neural networks to predict drought occurrence in Munich and Lisbon, with a lead time of 1 month. An analysis of the variables that have the highest impact on the prediction is performed. The study shows that the North Atlantic Oscillation index and air pressure 1 month before the event have the highest importance for the prediction. Moreover, it shows that seasonality strongly influences the goodness of prediction for the Lisbon domain.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3573–3598,Short summary
Three regional climate models (RCMs) are used to simulate extreme daily rainfall in Bavaria statistically occurring once every 10 or even 100 years. Results are validated with observations. The RCMs can reproduce spatial patterns and intensities, and setups with higher spatial resolutions show better results. These findings suggest that RCMs are suitable for assessing the probability of the occurrence of such rare rainfall events.
Isabella Aitkenhead, Yuriy Kuleshov, Jessica Bhardwaj, Zhi-Weng Chua, Chayn Sun, and Suelynn Choy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
A case study assessing drought risk in Papua New Guinea (PNG) provinces for past years (2014–2020) was conducted to demonstrate the development and validate the application of a tailored drought risk assessment methodology. Hazard, vulnerability, and exposure indicators appropriate for monitoring drought in PNG provinces were selected. The risk assessment indicated a strong drought event in 2015–2016, and a moderate event in 2019–2020.
Matthieu Plu, Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher, Delia Arnold Arias, Rocio Baro, Guillaume Bigeard, Luca Bugliaro, Ana Carvalho, Laaziz El Amraoui, Kurt Eschbacher, Marcus Hirtl, Christian Maurer, Marie D. Mulder, Dennis Piontek, Lennart Robertson, Carl-Herbert Rokitansky, Fritz Zobl, and Raimund Zopp
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2973–2992,Short summary
Past volcanic eruptions that spread out ash over large areas, like Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, forced the cancellation of thousands of flights and had huge economic consequences. In this article, an international team in the H2020 EU-funded EUNADICS-AV project has designed a probabilistic model approach to quantify ash concentrations. This approach is evaluated against measurements, and its potential use to mitigate the impact of future large-scale eruptions is discussed.
Alexandre Tuel and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2949–2972,Short summary
Extreme river discharge may be triggered by large accumulations of precipitation over short time periods, which can result from the successive occurrence of extreme-precipitation events. We find a distinct spatiotemporal pattern in the temporal clustering behavior of precipitation extremes over Switzerland, with clustering occurring on the northern side of the Alps in winter and on their southern side in fall. Clusters tend to be followed by extreme discharge, particularly in the southern Alps.
Patricia Tarín-Carrasco, Sofia Augusto, Laura Palacios-Peña, Nuno Ratola, and Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2867–2880,Short summary
Uncontrolled wildfires have a substantial impact on the environment and local populations. Although most southern European countries have been impacted by wildfires in the last decades, Portugal has the highest percentage of burned area compared to its whole territory. Under this umbrella, associations between large fires, PM10, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality (circulatory and respiratory) have been explored using Poisson regression models for 2001–2016.
Vincenzo Mazzarella, Rossella Ferretti, Errico Picciotti, and Frank Silvio Marzano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2849–2865,Short summary
Forecasting precipitation over the Mediterranean basin is still a challenge. In this context, data assimilation techniques play a key role in improving the initial conditions and consequently the timing and position of the precipitation forecast. For the first time, the ability of a cycling 4D-Var to reproduce a heavy rain event in central Italy, as well as to provide a comparison with the largely used cycling 3D-Var, is evaluated in this study.
Avaronthan Veettil Sreenath, Sukumarapillai Abhilash, and Pattathil Vijaykumar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2597–2609,Short summary
Lightning is a multifaceted hazard with widespread negative consequences for the environment and society. We explore how El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases impact the lightning over India by modulating the deep convection and associated atmospheric thermodynamics. Results show that ENSO phases directly influence lightning during monsoon and postmonsoon seasons by pushing the mean position of subtropical westerlies southward.
Michelle D. Spruce, Rudy Arthur, Joanne Robbins, and Hywel T. P. Williams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2407–2425,Short summary
Despite increased use of impact-based weather warnings, the social impacts of extreme weather events lie beyond the reach of conventional meteorological observations and remain difficult to quantify. This study compares data collected from the social media platform Twitter with a manually curated database of high-impact rainfall events across the globe between January–June 2017. Twitter is found to be a good detector of impactful rainfall events and, therefore, a useful source of impact data.
Folmer Krikken, Flavio Lehner, Karsten Haustein, Igor Drobyshev, and Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2169–2179,Short summary
In this study, we analyse the role of climate change in the forest fires that raged through large parts of Sweden in the summer of 2018 from a meteorological perspective. This is done by studying observationally constrained data and multiple climate models. We find a small reduced probability of such events, based on reanalyses, but a small increased probability due to global warming up to now and a more robust increase in the risk for such events in the future, based on climate models.
Florian Pappenberger, Florence Rabier, and Fabio Venuti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2163–2167,Short summary
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts mission is to deliver high-quality global medium‐range (3–15 d ahead of time) weather forecasts and monitoring of the Earth system. We have published a new strategy, and in this paper we discuss what this means for forecasting and monitoring natural hazards.
Elissavet Galanaki, Konstantinos Lagouvardos, Vassiliki Kotroni, Theodore Giannaros, and Christos Giannaros
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1983–2000,Short summary
A two-way coupled hydrometeorological model (WRF-Hydro) is used for flood forecasting purposes in medium-catchment-size basins in Greece. The results showed the capability of WRF-Hydro to adequately simulate the observed discharge and the slight improvement in terms of quantitative precipitation forecasting compared to the WRF-only simulations.
Frederick W. Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Kevin I. Hodges, and Sara C. Pryor
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2001–2020,Short summary
Windstorms during the last 40 years in the US Northeast are identified and characterized using the spatial extent of extreme wind speeds at 100 m height from the ERA5 reanalysis. During all of the top 10 windstorms, wind speeds exceeding the local 99.9th percentile cover at least one-third of the land area in this high-population-density region. These 10 storms followed frequently observed cyclone tracks but have intensities 5–10 times the mean values for cyclones affecting this region.
Panagiotis T. Nastos, Nicolas R. Dalezios, Ioannis N. Faraslis, Kostas Mitrakopoulos, Anna Blanta, Marios Spiliotopoulos, Stavros Sakellariou, Pantelis Sidiropoulos, and Ana M. Tarquis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1935–1954,Short summary
Risk assessment consists of three steps: identification, estimation and evaluation. Nevertheless, the risk management framework also includes a fourth step, the need for feedback on all the risk assessment undertakings. However, there is a lack of such feedback, which constitutes a serious deficiency in the reduction of environmental hazards at the present time. The objective of this review paper consists of addressing meteorological hazards and extremes within the risk management framework.
Dieter R. Poelman, Wolfgang Schulz, Stephane Pedeboy, Dustin Hill, Marcelo Saba, Hugh Hunt, Lukas Schwalt, Christian Vergeiner, Carlos T. Mata, Carina Schumann, and Tom Warner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1909–1919,Short summary
Information about lightning properties is important in order to advance the current understanding of lightning, whereby the characteristics of ground strike points are in particular helpful to improving the risk estimation for lightning protection. High-speed video recordings of 1174 negative downward lightning flashes are taken in different regions around the world and analyzed in terms of flash multiplicity, duration, interstroke intervals and ground strike point properties.
Dieter R. Poelman, Wolfgang Schulz, Stephane Pedeboy, Leandro Z. S. Campos, Michihiro Matsui, Dustin Hill, Marcelo Saba, and Hugh Hunt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1921–1933,Short summary
The lightning flash density is a key input parameter for assessing the risk of occurrence of a lightning strike. Flashes tend to have more than one ground termination point on average; therefore the use of ground strike point densities is more appropriate. The aim of this study is to assess the ability of three distinct ground strike point algorithms to correctly determine the observed ground-truth strike points.
Marc Lemus-Canovas and Joan Albert Lopez-Bustins
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1721–1738,Short summary
We present research that attempts to address recent and future changes in hot and dry compound events in the Pyrenees, which can induce severe environmental hazards in this area. The results show that during the last few decades, these kinds of compound events have only increased due to temperature increase. However, for the future, it is expected that the risk associated with these compound events will be raised by both the thermal increase and the longer duration of drought periods.
Monica Ionita and Viorica Nagavciuc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1685–1701,Short summary
By analyzing the joint frequency of compound events (e.g., high temperatures and droughts), we show that the potential evapotranspiration and mean air temperature are becoming essential components for drought occurrence over Central Europe and the Mediterranean region. This, together with the projected increase in potential evapotranspiration under a warming climate, has significant implications concerning the future occurrence of drought events over these regions.
Feifei Shen, Aiqing Shu, Hong Li, Dongmei Xu, and Jinzhong Min
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1569–1582,Short summary
The Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) on Himawari-8 can continuously monitor high-impact weather events with high frequency in space and time. The assimilation of AHI radiance data was implemented with the three-dimensional variational data assimilation system of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for the analysis and prediction of Typhoon Soudelor (2015) in the Pacific typhoon season.
Uri Dayan, Itamar M. Lensky, Baruch Ziv, and Pavel Khain
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1583–1597,Short summary
An intense rainstorm hit the Middle East between 24 and 27 April 2018. The storm reached its peak over Israel on 26 April when a heavy flash flood took the lives of 10 people. The rainfall was comparable to the long-term annual rainfall in the southern Negev. The timing was the end of the rainy season when rain is rare and spotty. The study analyses the dynamic and thermodynamic conditions that made this rainstorm one of the latest spring severe events in the region during the last 3 decades.
Seyedabdolhossein Mehvar, Kathelijne Wijnberg, Bas Borsje, Norman Kerle, Jan Maarten Schraagen, Joanne Vinke-de Kruijf, Karst Geurs, Andreas Hartmann, Rick Hogeboom, and Suzanne Hulscher
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1383–1407,Short summary
This review synthesizes and complements existing knowledge in designing resilient vital infrastructure systems (VIS). Results from a systematic literature review indicate that (i) VIS are still being built without taking resilience explicitly into account and (ii) measures to enhance the resilience of VIS have not been widely applied in practice. The main pressing topic to address is the integration of the combined social, ecological, and technical resilience of these systems.
Rudolf Brázdil, Kateřina Chromá, Lukáš Dolák, Jan Řehoř, Ladislava Řezníčková, Pavel Zahradníček, and Petr Dobrovolný
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1355–1382,Short summary
We present an analysis of fatalities attributable to weather conditions in the Czech Republic during the 2000–2019 period based on our own database created from newspaper reports, on the database of the Czech Statistical Office, and on the database of the police of the Czech Republic as well as on their comparison. Despite some uncertainties, generally declining trends in the number of fatalities appear for the majority of weather variables. The structure of fatalities is described in detail.
AEMET: Mapas de riesgo: Heladas y horas frío en la España peninsular (periodo 2002–2012), available at: https://www.aemet.es/documentos/es/serviciosclimaticos/datosclimatologicos/atlas_climatico/Mapas_de_riesgo_2002-2012_WEB.pdf, last access: 6 November 2018.
Alburquerque, N., García-Montiel, F., Carrillo, A., and Burgos, L.: Chilling and heat requirements of sweet cherry cultivars and the relationship between altitude and the probability of satisfying the chill requirements, Environ. Exp. Bot., 64, 162–170, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envexpbot.2008.01.003, 2008.
Aybar, V. E., Melo-Abreu, J. P., Searles, P. S., Matias, A. C., Del Rio, C., Caballero, J. M., and Rousseaux, M. C.: Evaluation of olive flowering at low latitude sites in Argentina using a chilling requirement model, Span. J. Agric. Res., 13, e09-001, https://doi.org/10.5424/sjar/2015131-6375, 2015.
Benmoussa, H., Ghrab, M., Ben Mimoun, M., and Luedeling, E.: Chilling and heat requirements for local and foreign almond (Prunus dulcis Mill.) cultivars in a warm Mediterranean location based on 30 years of phenology records, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 239, 34–46, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.02.030, 2017a.
Benmoussa, H., Luedeling, E., Ghrab, M., Ben Yahmed, J., and Ben Mimoun, M.: Performance of pistachio (Pistacia vera L.) in warming Mediterranean orchards, Environ. Exp. Bot., 140, 76–85, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envexpbot.2017.05.007, 2017b.
Bennett, J. P.: Temperature and bud rest period: Effect of temperature and exposure on the rest period of deciduous plant leaf buds investigated, Calif. Agr., 3, 9–12, 1949.
Bladé, I., Cacho, I., Castro-Díez, Y., Gomis, D., González-Sampériz, P., Miguez-Macho, G., Rodríguez-Fonseca, B., Rodríguez-Puebla, C., Sánchez, E., Sotillo, M. G., Valero-Garcés, B. L., and Vargas-Yáñez, M.: Climate in Spain: past, present and future. Regional climate change assessment report, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España) Ministerio de Medio Ambiente y Medio Rural y Marino (España) ISBN 978-84-614-8115-6, 2010.
Boberg, F. and Christensen, J. H.: Overestimation of Mediterranean summer temperature projections due to model deficiencies, Nat. Clim. Chang., 2, 433–436, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1454, 2012.
Campoy, J. A., Ruiz, D., and Egea, J.: Dormancy in temperate fruit trees in a global warming context: A review, Sci. Hortic., 130, 357–372, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scienta.2011.07.011, 2011.
Campoy, J. A., Ruiz, D., Allderman, L., Cook, N., and Egea, J.: The fulfilment of chilling requirements and the adaptation of apricot (Prunus armeniaca L.) in warm winter climates: An approach in Murcia (Spain) and the Western Cape (South Africa), Eur. J. Agron., 37, 43–55, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2011.10.004, 2012.
Casanueva, A., Kotlarski, S., Herrera García, S., Fernández, J., Gutiérrez, J., Boberg, F., Colette, A., Christensen, O., Goergen, K., Jacob, D., Keuler, K., Nikulin, G., Teichmann, C., and Vautard, R.: Daily precipitation statistics in a EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble: Added value of raw and bias-corrected high-resolution simulations, Clim. Dynam., 47, 719–737, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2865-x, 2016.
Casanueva, A., Bedia, J., Herrera, S., Fernández, J., and Gutiérrez, J. M.: Direct and component-wise bias correction of multi-variate climate indices: the percentile adjustment function diagnostic tool, Clim. Change, 147, 411–425, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2167-5, 2018.
Cook, N. C., Calitz, F. J., Allderman, L. A., Steyn, W. J., and Louw, E. D.: Diverse patterns in dormancy progression of apple buds under variable winter conditions, Sci. Hortic., 226, 307–315, 2017.
Darbyshire, R., Webb, L., Goodwin, I., and Barlow, E. W. R.: Impact of future warming on winter chilling in Australia, Int. J. Biometeorol., 57, 355–366, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-012-0558-2, 2013.
De Melo-Abreu, J. P., Barranco, D., Cordeiro, A. M., Tous, J., Rogado, B. M., and Villalobos, F. J.: Modelling olive flowering date using chilling for dormancy release and thermal time, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 125, 117–127, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2004.02.009, 2004.
de Wit, C. T., Goudriaan, J., van Laar, H. H., Penning de Vries, F. W. T., Rabbinge, R., Van Keulen, H., Louwerse, W., Sibma, L., and de Jonge, C.: Simulation of assimilation, respiration and transpiration of crops, Pudoc, Wageningen, the Netherlands, 1978.
Dosio, A.: Projections of climate change indices of temperature and precipitation from an ensemble of bias-adjusted high-resolution EURO-CORDEX regional climate models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 5488–5511, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024411, 2016.
Dosio, A. and Fischer, E. M.: Will Half a Degree Make a Difference? Robust Projections of Indices of Mean and Extreme Climate in Europe Under 1.5 ∘C, 2 ∘C, and 3 ∘C Global Warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 935–944, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076222, 2018.
Dosio, A. and Paruolo, P.: Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Evaluation on the present climate, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, D16106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD015934, 2011.
Dosio, A., Paruolo, P., and Rojas, R.: Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Analysis of the climate change signal, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, D17110, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017968, 2012.
Elloumi, O., Ghrab, M., Kessentini, H., and Ben Mimoun, M.: Chilling accumulation effects on performance of pistachio trees cv. Mateur in dry and warm area climate, Sci. Hortic., 159, 80–87, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scienta.2013.05.004, 2013.
Erez, A. (Ed.): Bud Dormancy; Phenomenon, Problems and Solutions in the Tropics and Subtropics, in: Temperate Fruit Crops in Warm Climates, Springer, Dordrecht, the Netherlands, 2000.
Erez, A., Fishman, S., Linsley-Noakes, G., and Allan, P.: The dynamic model for rest completion in peach buds, Acta Hortic., 276, 165–174, https://doi.org/10.17660/ActaHortic.1990.276.18, 1990.
FAOSTAT: Food and agriculture data, available at: http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/, last access: 21 November 2018.
FEPEX: Exportación/Importación españolas de frutas y hortalizas, available at: http://www.fepex.es/datos-del-sector/exportacion-importacion-espanola-frutas-hortalizas, last access: 10 December 2018.
Fishman, S., Erez, A., and Couvillon, G. A.: The temperature dependence of dormancy breaking in plants: Computer simulation of processes studied under controlled temperatures, J. Theor. Biol., 126, 309–321, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-5193(87)80237-0, 1987a.
Fishman, S., Erez, A., and Couvillon, G. A.: The temperature dependence of dormancy breaking in plants: Mathematical analysis of a two-step model involving a cooperative transition, J. Theor. Biol., 124, 473–483, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-5193(87)80221-7, 1987b.
Funes, I., Aranda, X., Biel, C., Carbó, J., Camps, F., Molina, A. J., Herralde, F. d., Grau, B., and Savé, R.: Future climate change impacts on apple flowering date in a Mediterranean subbasin, Agr. Water Manage., 164, 19–27, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2015.06.013, 2016.
Gabaldón-Leal, C., Ruiz-Ramos, M., de la Rosa, R., León, L., Belaj, A., Rodríguez, A., Santos, C., and Lorite, I. J.: Impact of changes in mean and extreme temperatures caused by climate change on olive flowering in southern Spain, Int. J. Climatol., 37, 940–957, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5048, 2017.
Giorgi, F. and Gutowski, W. J.: Regional Dynamical Downscaling and the CORDEX Initiative, Annu. Rev. Env. Resour., 40, 467–490, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-102014-021217, 2015.
Gómara, Í., Mohino, E., Losada, T., Domínguez, M., Suárez, R., and Rodríguez, B.: Impact of dynamical regionalization on precipitation biases and teleconnections over West Africa, Clim. Dynam., 50, 4481–4506, 2018.
Guo, L., Dai, J., Wang, M., Xu, J., and Luedeling, E.: Responses of spring phenology in temperate zone trees to climate warming: A case study of apricot flowering in China, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 201, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.10.016, 2015.
Hauagge, R. and Cummins, J. N.: Phenotypic variation of length of bud dormancy in apple cultivars and related Malus species, J. Am. Soc. Hortic. Sci., 116, 100–106, 1991.
Haylock, M. R., Hofstra, N., Klein Tank, A. M. G., Klok, E. J., Jones, P., and New, M.: A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D20119, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010201, 2008.
Herrera, S., Gutiérrez, J. M., Ancell, R., Pons, M. R., Frías, M. D., and Fernández, J.: Development and analysis of a 50-year high-resolution daily gridded precipitation dataset over Spain (Spain02), Int. J. Climatol., 32, 74–85, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2256, 2012.
Herrera, S., Fernández, J., and Gutiérrez, J. M.: Update of the Spain02 gridded observational dataset for EURO-CORDEX evaluation: Assessing the effect of the interpolation methodology, Int. J. Climatol., 36, 900–908, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4391, 2016.
Houston, L., Capalbo, S., Seavert, C., Dalton, M., Bryla, D., and Sagili, R.: Specialty fruit production in the Pacific Northwest: adaptation strategies for a changing climate, Clim. Change, 146, 159–171, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1951-y, 2018.
IPCC: Summary for Policymakers, in: Global warming of 1.5 ∘C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 ∘C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pörtner, H. O., Roberts, D., Skea, J., Shukla, P. R., Pirani, A., Moufouma-Okia, W., Péan, C., Pidcock, R., Connors, S., Matthews, J. B. R., Chen, Y., Zhou, X., Gomis, M. I., Lonnoy, E., Maycock, T., Tignor, M., and Waterfield, T., World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 32 pp., 2018.
Jacob, D., Petersen, J., Eggert, B., Alias, A., Christensen, O. B., Bouwer, L. M., Braun, A., Colette, A., Déqué, M., Georgievski, G., Georgopoulou, E., Gobiet, A., Menut, L., Nikulin, G., Haensler, A., Hempelmann, N., Jones, C., Keuler, K., Kovats, S., Kröner, N., Kotlarski, S., Kriegsmann, A., Martin, E., van Meijgaard, E., Moseley, C., Pfeifer, S., Preuschmann, S., Radermacher, C., Radtke, K., Rechid, D., Rounsevell, M., Samuelsson, P., Somot, S., Soussana, J.-F., Teichmann, C., Valentini, R., Vautard, R., Weber, B., and Yiou, P.: EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research, Reg. Environ. Change, 14, 563–578, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2, 2014.
Knight, T. A.: Account of some experiment on the ascent of the sap in trees, Philos. T. R. Soc. Lond., 91, 333–353, 1801.
Kottek, M., Grieser, J., Beck, C., Rudolf, B., and Rubel, F.: World Map of the Köppen-Geiger Climate Classification Updated, Meteorol. Z., 15, 259–263, https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2006/0130, 2006.
Lang, G. A., Early, J. D., Arroyave, N. J., Darnell, R. L., Martin, G. C., and Stutte, G. W.: Dormancy: Toward a reduced, universal terminology, Hortscience, 20, 809–812, 1985.
Linsley-Noakes, G. C. and Allan, P.: Comparison of two models for the prediction of rest completion in peaches, Sci. Hortic., 59, 107–113, https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4238(94)90077-9, 1994.
Londo, J. P. and Johnson, L. M.: Variation in the chilling requirement and budburst rate of wild Vitis species, Environ. Exp. Bot., 106, 138–147, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envexpbot.2013.12.012, 2014.
Lorite, I. J., Gabaldón-Leal, C., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Belaj, A., de la Rosa, R., León, L., and Santos, C.: Evaluation of olive response and adaptation strategies to climate change under semi-arid conditions, Agr. Water Manage., 204, 247–261, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2018.04.008, 2018.
Luedeling, E.: Climate change impacts on winter chill for temperate fruit and nut production: A review, Sci. Hortic., 144, 218–229, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scienta.2012.07.011, 2012.
Luedeling, E. and Brown, P.: A global analysis of the comparability of winter chill models for fruit and nut trees, Int. J. Biometeorol., 55, 411–421, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-010-0352-y, 2011.
Luedeling, E., Zhang, M., and Girvetz, E. H.: Climatic Changes Lead to Declining Winter Chill for Fruit and Nut Trees in California during 1950–2099, PLOS ONE, 4, e6166, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0006166, 2009a.
Luedeling, E., Zhang, M., McGranahan, G., and Leslie, C.: Validation of winter chill models using historic records of walnut phenology, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 149, 1854–1864, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2009.06.013, 2009b.
Luedeling, E., Girvetz, E. H., Semenov, M. A., and Brown, P. H.: Climate Change Affects Winter Chill for Temperate Fruit and Nut Trees, PLOS ONE, 6, e20155, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0020155, 2011.
Luedeling, E., Guo, L., Dai, J., Leslie, C., and Blanke, M. M.: Differential responses of trees to temperature variation during the chilling and forcing phases, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 181, 33–42, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2013.06.018, 2013.
MAPA: Superficies y producciones anuales de cultivos, available at: https://www.mapa.gob.es/es/estadistica/temas/estadisticas-agrarias/agricultura/superficies-producciones-anuales-cultivos/, last access: 10 December 2018.
Maraun, D. and Widmann, M.: Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction for Climate Research, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2018.
Marra, F., Bassi, G., Gaeta, L., Giovannini, D., Palasciano, M., Sirri, S., and Caruso, T.: Use of phenoclimatic models to estimate the chill and heat requirements of four sweet cherry cultivars in Italy, Acta Hortic., 1162, 57–64, https://doi.org/10.17660/ActaHortic.2017.1162.10, 2017.
Martre, P., Wallach, D., Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Jones, J. W., Rotter, R. P., Boote, K. J., Ruane, A. C., Thorburn, P. J., Cammarano, D., Hatfield, J. L., Rosenzweig, C., Aggarwal, P. K., Angulo, C., Basso, B., Bertuzzi, P., Biernath, C., Brisson, N., Challinor, A. J., Doltra, J., Gayler, S., Goldberg, R., Grant, R. F., Heng, L., Hooker, J., Hunt, L. A., Ingwersen, J., Izaurralde, R. C., Kersebaum, K. C., Muller, C., Kumar, S. N., Nendel, C., O'Leary, G., Olesen, J. E., Osborne, T. M., Palosuo, T., Priesack, E., Ripoche, D., Semenov, M. A., Shcherbak, I., Steduto, P., Stockle, C. O., Stratonovitch, P., Streck, T., Supit, I., Tao, F. L., Travasso, M., Waha, K., White, J. W., and Wolf, J.: Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth: many models are better than one, Glob. Change Biol., 21, 911–925, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12768, 2015.
MATLAB: R2017a, The MathWorks Inc., Natick, Massachusetts, USA, 2017.
Measham, P. F., Darbyshire, R., Turpin, S. R., and Murphy-White, S.: Complexity in chill calculations: A case study in cherries, Sci. Hortic., 216, 134–140, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scienta.2017.01.006, 2017.
Mendlik, T. and Gobiet, A.: Selecting climate simulations for impact studies based on multivariate patterns of climate change, Clim. Change, 135, 381–393, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1582-0, 2016.
Miranda, C., Santesteban, L. G., and Royo, J. B.: Evaluation and fitting of models for determining peach phenological stages at a regional scale, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 178–179, 129–139, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2013.04.016, 2013.
Nikulin, G., Jones, C., Giorgi, F., Asrar, G., Büchner, M., Cerezo-Mota, R., Christensen, O. B., Déqué, M., Fernandez, J., Hänsler, A., Meijgaard, E. v., Samuelsson, P., Sylla, M. B., and Sushama, L.: Precipitation Climatology in an Ensemble of CORDEX-Africa Regional Climate Simulations, J. Climate, 25, 6057–6078, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00375.1, 2012.
Olesen, J. E., Carter, T. R., Diaz-Ambrona, C. H., Fronzek, S., Heidmann, T., Hickler, T., Holt, T., Minguez, M. I., Morales, P., Palutikof, J. P., Quemada, M., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Rubaek, G. H., Sau, F., Smith, B., and Sykes, M. T.: Uncertainties in projected impacts of climate change on European agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems based on scenarios from regional climate models, Clim. Change, 81, 123–143, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9216-1, 2007.
Peel, M. C., Finlayson, B. L., and McMahon, T. A.: Updated world map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1633–1644, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-1633-2007, 2007.
Piani, C., Haerter, J. O., and Coppola, E.: Statistical bias correction for daily precipitation in regional climate models over Europe, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 99, 187–192, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-009-0134-9, 2010a.
Piani, C., Weedon, G. P., Best, M., Gomes, S. M., Viterbo, P., Hagemann, S., and Haerter, J. O.: Statistical bias correction of global simulated daily precipitation and temperature for the application of hydrological models, J. Hydrol., 395, 199–215, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.10.024, 2010b.
Prudencio, Á. S., Martinez-Gomez, P., and Dicenta, F.: Evaluation of breaking dormancy, flowering and productivity of extra-late and ultra-late flowering almond cultivars during cold and warm seasons in South-East of Spain, Sci. Hortic., 235, 39–46, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scienta.2018.02.073, 2018.
Razavi, F., Hajilou, J., Tabatabaei, S., and Dadpour, M.: Comparison of Chilling and Heat Requirement in Some Peach and Apricot Cultivars, Research in Plant Biology, 1, 40–47, 2011.
Reicosky, D. C., Winkelman, L. J., Baker, J. M., and Baker, D. G.: Accuracy of hourly air temperatures calculated from daily minima and maxima, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 46, 193–209, https://doi.org/10.1016/0168-1923(89)90064-6, 1989.
Richardson, E. A., Seeley, S. D., and Walker, D. R.: A model for estimating the completion of rest for “Redhaven” and “Elberta” peach trees, HortScience, 1, 331–332, 1974.
Rodríguez, A., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Palosuo, T., Carter, T. R., Fronzek, S., Lorite, I. J., Ferrise, R., Pirttioja, N., Bindi, M., Baranowski, P., Buis, S., Cammarano, D., Chen, Y., Dumont, B., Ewert, F., Gaiser, T., Hlavinka, P., Hoffmann, H., Höhn, J. G., Jurecka, F., Kersebaum, K. C., Krzyszczak, J., Lana, M., Mechiche-Alami, A., Minet, J., Montesino, M., Nendel, C., Porter, J. R., Ruget, F., Semenov, M. A., Steinmetz, Z., Stratonovitch, P., Supit, I., Tao, F., Trnka, M., de Wit, A., and Rötter, R. P.: Implications of crop model ensemble size and composition for estimates of adaptation effects and agreement of recommendations, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 264, 351–362, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.09.018, 2019.
Roman, A. M., Cuculeanu, V., Cusursuz, B., Dumitru, L., Topor, E., and Alexe, G.: Testing the dynamic model of chilling portions in the extreme south-east part of Romania, AFITA 1998, First Asian Conference for Information Technology in Agriculture, 24 January 1998, Wakayama, Japan, 1998.
Ruiz, D., Campoy, J. A., and Egea, J.: Chilling and heat requirements of apricot cultivars for flowering, Environ. Exp. Bot., 61, 254–263, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envexpbot.2007.06.008, 2007.
Ruiz-Ramos, M., Rodríguez, A., Dosio, A., Goodess, C. M., Harpham, C., Mínguez, M. I., and Sánchez, E.: Comparing correction methods of RCM outputs for improving crop impact projections in the Iberian Peninsula for 21st century, Clim. Change, 134, 283–297, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1518-8, 2016.
Sawamura, Y., Suesada, Y., Sugiura, T., and Yaegaki, H.: Chilling Requirements and Blooming Dates of Leading Peach Cultivars and a Promising Early Maturing Peach Selection, Momo Tsukuba 127, Horticult. J., 86, 426–436, https://doi.org/10.2503/hortj.OKD-052, 2017.
Shaltout, A. D. and Unrath, C. R.: Rest completion prediction model for “Starkrimson Delicious” apples, J. Am. Soc. Hort. Sci., 108, 957–961, 1983.
SIOSE: Sistema de Información de Ocupación del Suelo en España, available at: http://www.siose.es/, last access: 15 May 2019.
Tao, F., Rötter, R. P., Palosuo, T., Gregorio Hernández Díaz-Ambrona, C., Mínguez, M. I., Semenov, M. A., Kersebaum, K. C., Nendel, C., Specka, X., Hoffmann, H., Ewert, F., Dambreville, A., Martre, P., Rodríguez, L., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Gaiser, T., Höhn, J. G., Salo, T., Ferrise, R., Bindi, M., Cammarano, D., and Schulman, A. H.: Contribution of crop model structure, parameters and climate projections to uncertainty in climate change impact assessments, Glob. Change Biol., 24, 1291–1307, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14019, 2018.
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498, https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-11-00094.1, 2012.
van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G. C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J.-F., Masui, T., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Smith, S. J., and Rose, S. K.: The representative concentration pathways: an overview, Clim. Change, 109, 5–31, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z, 2011.
Viti, R., Andreini, L., Ruiz, D., Egea, J., Bartolini, S., Iacona, C., and Campoy, J. A.: Effect of climatic conditions on the overcoming of dormancy in apricot flower buds in two Mediterranean areas: Murcia (Spain) and Tuscany (Italy), Sci. Hortic., 124, 217–224, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scienta.2010.01.001, 2010.
Wallach, D., Martre, P., Liu, B., Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Thorburn, P. J., Ittersum, M., Aggarwal, P. K., Ahmed, M., Basso, B., Biernath, C., Cammarano, D., Challinor, A. J., De Sanctis, G., Dumont, B., Eyshi Rezaei, E., Fereres, E., Fitzgerald, G. J., Gao, Y., Garcia-Vila, M., Gayler, S., Girousse, C., Hoogenboom, G., Horan, H., Izaurralde, R. C., Jones, C. D., Kassie, B. T., Kersebaum, K. C., Klein, C., Koehler, A.-K., Maiorano, A., Minoli, S., Müller, C., Naresh Kumar, S., Nendel, C., O'Leary, G. J., Palosuo, T., Priesack, E., Ripoche, D., Rötter, R. P., Semenov, M. A., Stöckle, C., Stratonovitch, P., Streck, T., Supit, I., Tao, F., Wolf, J., and Zhang, Z.: Multimodel ensembles improve predictions of crop–environment–management interactions, Glob. Change Biol., 24, 5072–5083, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14411, 2019.
Weinberger, J. H.: Chilling requirements of peach varieties, P. Am. Soc. Hortic. Sci., 56, 122–128, 1950.
Wilcke, R. A. I. and Bärring, L.: Selecting regional climate scenarios for impact modelling studies, Environ. Modell. Softw., 78, 191–201, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.01.002, 2016.
Wrege, M. S., Caramori, P. H., Herter, F. G., Steinmetz, S., Reisser Júnior, C., Matzenauer, R., and Braga, H. J.: Impact of global warming on the accumulated chilling hours in the southern region of Brazil, Acta Hortic., 872, 31–40, https://doi.org/10.17660/ActaHortic.2010.872.2, 2010.
Zhang, J. and Taylor, C.: The Dynamic Model Provides the Best Description of the Chill Process on “Sirora” Pistachio Trees in Australia, HortScience, 46, 420–425, https://doi.org/10.21273/hortsci.46.3.420, 2011.
Growing trees are vulnerable to cold temperatures. Fruit trees stop their growth during the coldest months of the year until meeting a required cold accumulation, specific for each tree species and variety. Under global warming, a reduction in cold accumulation in Spain is projected. This threatens the viability of some current tree crops and varieties in some areas, but other varieties with less requirements can be used. Our results allow adaptation of tree plantations to climate change.
Growing trees are vulnerable to cold temperatures. Fruit trees stop their growth during the...