Articles | Volume 18, issue 10
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2697–2716, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2697-2018
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2697–2716, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2697-2018

Research article 23 Oct 2018

Research article | 23 Oct 2018

Spatial consistency and bias in avalanche forecasts – a case study in the European Alps

Frank Techel et al.

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Cited articles

Baker, J. and McGee, T.: Backcountry snowmobiler' avalanche-related information-seeking and preparedness behaviors, Soc. Nat. Resour., 29, 345–356, https://doi.org/10.1080/08941920.2015.1103387, 2016. a
Ballou, D. and Pazer, H.: Modeling completeness versus consistency tradeoffs in information decision contexts, IEEE T. Knowl. Data En., 15, 240–243, https://doi.org/10.1109/TKDE.2003.1161595, 2003. a
Bivand, R.: classInt: Choose univariate class intervals, available at: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=classInt, r package version 0.1-24, last access: 1 September 2017. a
Bivand, R. and Piras, G.: Comparing implementations of estimation methods for spatial econometrics, J. Stat. Softw., 63, 1–36, https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v063.i18, 2015. a
Bivand, R., Pebesma, E., and Gómez-Rubio, V.: Applied spatial data analysis with R, Springer Science + Business Media New York 2013, 2 edn., https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-7618-4, 2013. a
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In 1993, the European Avalanche Warning Services agreed upon a common danger scale to describe the regional avalanche hazard: the European Avalanche Danger Scale. Using published avalanche forecasts, we explored whether forecasters use the scale consistently. We noted differences in the use of the danger levels, some of which could be linked to the size of the regions a regional danger level is issued for. We recommend further harmonizing the avalanche forecast products in the Alps.
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