Articles | Volume 18, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2697-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2697-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
23 Oct 2018
Research article |
| 23 Oct 2018
| 23 Oct 2018
Spatial consistency and bias in avalanche forecasts – a case study in the European Alps
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos,
Switzerland
Department of Geography, University of Zürich, Zurich,
Switzerland
Christoph Mitterer
Lawinenwarndienst Tirol, Abteilung Zivil- und
Katastrophenschutz, Innsbruck, Austria
Elisabetta Ceaglio
Fondazione Montagna sicura, Ufficio neve e valanghe,
Regione Autonoma Valle d'Aosta, Italy
Cécile Coléou
Météo France, Direction
des Opérations pour la Prévision, Cellule Montagne Nivologie, Grenoble,
France
Samuel Morin
Météo France – CNRS,
CNRM UMR 3589, Centre d'Études de la Neige, Grenoble, France
Université Grenoble Alpes, Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, France
Francesca Rastelli
Meteomont Carabinieri, Bormio, Italy
Ross S. Purves
Department of Geography, University of Zürich, Zurich,
Switzerland
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Cited
20 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Avalanche danger level characteristics from field observations of snow instability J. Schweizer et al. 10.5194/tc-15-3293-2021
- Methodological and conceptual challenges in rare and severe event forecast verification P. Ebert & P. Milne 10.5194/nhess-22-539-2022
- A quantitative module of avalanche hazard – comparing forecaster assessments of storm and persistent slab avalanche problems with information derived from distributed snowpack simulations F. Herla et al. 10.5194/nhess-25-625-2025
- Developing nationwide avalanche terrain maps for Norway H. Larsen et al. 10.1007/s11069-020-04104-7
- On the importance of snowpack stability, the frequency distribution of snowpack stability, and avalanche size in assessing the avalanche danger level F. Techel et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3503-2020
- On the relation between avalanche occurrence and avalanche danger level J. Schweizer et al. 10.5194/tc-14-737-2020
- Brief communication: Key papers of 20 years in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences A. Gain et al. 10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022
- A large-scale validation of snowpack simulations in support of avalanche forecasting focusing on critical layers F. Herla et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-2727-2024
- How is avalanche danger described in textual descriptions in avalanche forecasts in Switzerland? Consistency between forecasters and avalanche danger V. Hutter et al. 10.5194/nhess-21-3879-2021
- AutoATES v2.0: Automated Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale mapping H. Toft et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-1779-2024
- On the correlation between the forecast avalanche danger and avalanche risk taken by backcountry skiers in Switzerland K. Winkler et al. 10.1016/j.coldregions.2021.103299
- Impact of information presentation on interpretability of spatial hazard information: lessons from a study in avalanche safety K. Fisher et al. 10.5194/nhess-21-3219-2021
- Examining the operational use of avalanche problems with decision trees and model-generated weather and snowpack variables S. Horton et al. 10.5194/nhess-20-3551-2020
- Automated prediction of wet-snow avalanche activity in the Swiss Alps M. Hendrick et al. 10.1017/jog.2023.24
- Where the rubber of the RISP model meets the road: Contextualizing risk information seeking and processing with an avalanche bulletin user typology A. Clair et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102626
- Application of physical snowpack models in support of operational avalanche hazard forecasting: A status report on current implementations and prospects for the future S. Morin et al. 10.1016/j.coldregions.2019.102910
- Refined dry-snow avalanche danger ratings in regional avalanche forecasts: Consistent? And better than random? F. Techel et al. 10.1016/j.coldregions.2020.103162
- Formation, triggering, and motion factors for the snow avalanche on 30 June 2024 at the Kedarnath South Face in the Indian Himalayas G. Dandabathula et al. 10.1007/s10346-024-02446-y
- Mass wasting susceptibility assessment of snow avalanches using machine learning models B. Choubin et al. 10.1038/s41598-020-75476-w
- Communicating public avalanche warnings – what works? R. Engeset et al. 10.5194/nhess-18-2537-2018
19 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Avalanche danger level characteristics from field observations of snow instability J. Schweizer et al. 10.5194/tc-15-3293-2021
- Methodological and conceptual challenges in rare and severe event forecast verification P. Ebert & P. Milne 10.5194/nhess-22-539-2022
- A quantitative module of avalanche hazard – comparing forecaster assessments of storm and persistent slab avalanche problems with information derived from distributed snowpack simulations F. Herla et al. 10.5194/nhess-25-625-2025
- Developing nationwide avalanche terrain maps for Norway H. Larsen et al. 10.1007/s11069-020-04104-7
- On the importance of snowpack stability, the frequency distribution of snowpack stability, and avalanche size in assessing the avalanche danger level F. Techel et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3503-2020
- On the relation between avalanche occurrence and avalanche danger level J. Schweizer et al. 10.5194/tc-14-737-2020
- Brief communication: Key papers of 20 years in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences A. Gain et al. 10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022
- A large-scale validation of snowpack simulations in support of avalanche forecasting focusing on critical layers F. Herla et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-2727-2024
- How is avalanche danger described in textual descriptions in avalanche forecasts in Switzerland? Consistency between forecasters and avalanche danger V. Hutter et al. 10.5194/nhess-21-3879-2021
- AutoATES v2.0: Automated Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale mapping H. Toft et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-1779-2024
- On the correlation between the forecast avalanche danger and avalanche risk taken by backcountry skiers in Switzerland K. Winkler et al. 10.1016/j.coldregions.2021.103299
- Impact of information presentation on interpretability of spatial hazard information: lessons from a study in avalanche safety K. Fisher et al. 10.5194/nhess-21-3219-2021
- Examining the operational use of avalanche problems with decision trees and model-generated weather and snowpack variables S. Horton et al. 10.5194/nhess-20-3551-2020
- Automated prediction of wet-snow avalanche activity in the Swiss Alps M. Hendrick et al. 10.1017/jog.2023.24
- Where the rubber of the RISP model meets the road: Contextualizing risk information seeking and processing with an avalanche bulletin user typology A. Clair et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102626
- Application of physical snowpack models in support of operational avalanche hazard forecasting: A status report on current implementations and prospects for the future S. Morin et al. 10.1016/j.coldregions.2019.102910
- Refined dry-snow avalanche danger ratings in regional avalanche forecasts: Consistent? And better than random? F. Techel et al. 10.1016/j.coldregions.2020.103162
- Formation, triggering, and motion factors for the snow avalanche on 30 June 2024 at the Kedarnath South Face in the Indian Himalayas G. Dandabathula et al. 10.1007/s10346-024-02446-y
- Mass wasting susceptibility assessment of snow avalanches using machine learning models B. Choubin et al. 10.1038/s41598-020-75476-w
1 citations as recorded by crossref.
Latest update: 23 Apr 2025
Short summary
In 1993, the European Avalanche Warning Services agreed upon a common danger scale to describe the regional avalanche hazard: the European Avalanche Danger Scale. Using published avalanche forecasts, we explored whether forecasters use the scale consistently. We noted differences in the use of the danger levels, some of which could be linked to the size of the regions a regional danger level is issued for. We recommend further harmonizing the avalanche forecast products in the Alps.
In 1993, the European Avalanche Warning Services agreed upon a common danger scale to describe...
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