Spatial consistency and bias in avalanche forecasts – a case study in the European Alps

Techel, Frank; Mitterer, Christoph; Ceaglio, Elisabetta; Coléou, Cécile; Morin, Samuel; Rastelli, Francesca; Purves, Ross S.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2697-2018

Articles | Volume 18, issue 10

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2697-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2697-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 18, issue 10

Research article

|

23 Oct 2018

Research article |

| 23 Oct 2018

Spatial consistency and bias in avalanche forecasts – a case study in the European Alps

Frank Techel, Christoph Mitterer, Elisabetta Ceaglio, Cécile Coléou, Samuel Morin, Francesca Rastelli, and Ross S. Purves

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2697-2018-supplement

Data sets

Forecast avalanche danger level European Alps 2011–2015 F. Techel https://doi.org/10.16904/envidat.53

Download

Article (8752 KB)
Full-text XML

Short summary

In 1993, the European Avalanche Warning Services agreed upon a common danger scale to describe the regional avalanche hazard: the European Avalanche Danger Scale. Using published avalanche forecasts, we explored whether forecasters use the scale consistently. We noted differences in the use of the danger levels, some of which could be linked to the size of the regions a regional danger level is issued for. We recommend further harmonizing the avalanche forecast products in the Alps.