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An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 15, issue 3
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 557–570, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-557-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-557-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 557–570, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-557-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-557-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article 12 Mar 2015
Research article | 12 Mar 2015
Probabilistic storm surge inundation maps for Metro Manila based on Philippine public storm warning signals
J. Tablazon et al.
Related authors
No articles found.
Kelvin S. Rodolfo, A. Mahar F. Lagmay, Rodrigo C. Eco, Tatum Miko L. Herrero, Jerico E. Mendoza, Likha G. Minimo, and Joy T. Santiago
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2683–2695, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2683-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2683-2016, 2016
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In 2012, a village in southern Philippines was wiped out by catastrophic debris flows generated Super Typhoon Bopha. This area of the country is seldom hit by strong typhoons; nevertheless, geologic evidence shows that such events have happened in the past. We put this in the context of the expansion of human settlements to understand why the disaster happened. Doing so will enable communities that are not used to such events to prepare for them.
Paul Kenneth Luzon, Kristina Montalbo, Jam Galang, Jasmine May Sabado, Carmille Marie Escape, Raquel Felix, and Alfredo Mahar Francisco Lagmay
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 875–883, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-875-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-875-2016, 2016
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To investigate the present-day morphology of the 2006 Guinsaugon landslide scar and potential failure that may occur, analysis of a 5 m resolution IfSAR-derived DTM was conducted using Coltop3D and Matterocking software to produce a structurally controlled landslide hazard map for Southern Leyte, Philippines. This type of simulated hazard maps would be useful for disaster prevention and to facilitate disaster risk reduction efforts for landslide-susceptible areas in the country.
S. M. May, M. Engel, D. Brill, C. Cuadra, A. M. F. Lagmay, J. Santiago, J. K. Suarez, M. Reyes, and H. Brückner
Earth Surf. Dynam., 3, 543–558, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-543-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-543-2015, 2015
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Block and boulder fields record catastrophic coastal flooding events and play a pivotal role in coastal hazard assessment. After Supertyphoon Haiyan on 8 Nov 2013 the transport of extremely large blocks of up to 180 t in E Samar (Philippines) was documented, indicating that hydrodynamic conditions induced by tropical cyclones, including infragravity waves, and resulting coarse-clast transport patterns may be comparable to tsunamis.
J. P. Lapidez, J. Tablazon, L. Dasallas, L. A. Gonzalo, K. M. Cabacaba, M. M. A. Ramos, J. K. Suarez, J. Santiago, A. M. F. Lagmay, and V. Malano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1473–1481, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1473-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1473-2015, 2015
A. M. F. Lagmay and R. Eco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2795–2801, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2795-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2795-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Sea, Ocean and Coastal Hazards
Deep submarine landslide contribution to the 2010 Haiti earthquake tsunami
Extreme storm tides in the German Bight (North Sea) and their potential for amplification
Coastal impacts of Storm Gloria (January 2020) over the north-western Mediterranean
Regional frequency analysis of extreme storm surges using the extremogram approach
Extreme wave analysis based on atmospheric pattern classification: an application along the Italian coast
Risk assessment of sea ice disasters on fixed jacket platforms in Liaodong Bay
Run-up, inundation, and sediment characteristics of the 22 December 2018 Sunda Strait tsunami, Indonesia
Spatial and temporal analysis of extreme storm-tide and skew-surge events around the coastline of New Zealand
Reciprocal Green's functions and the quick forecast of submarine landslide tsunamis
Quantifying processes contributing to coastal hazards to inform coastal climate resilience assessments, demonstrated for the Caribbean Sea
High-accuracy coastal flood mapping for Norway using lidar data
The 22 December 2018 Mount Anak Krakatau volcanogenic tsunami on Sunda Strait coasts, Indonesia: tsunami and damage characteristics
Integrated sea storm management strategy: the 29 October 2018 event in the Adriatic Sea
Meteotsunami occurrence in the Gulf of Finland over the past century
Storm Tide Amplification and Habitat Changes due to Urbanization of a Lagoonal Estuary
Lagrangian Trajectory Modelling for a Person lost at Sea during Adriatic Scirocco Storm of 29 October 2018
Nonlinear deformation and run-up of single tsunami waves of positive polarity: numerical simulations and analytical predictions
Tsunami risk perception in southern Italy: first evidence from a sample survey
Uncertainties in Coastal Flood Risk Assessments in Small Island Developing States
Post-event field survey of 28 September 2018 Sulawesi earthquake and tsunami
Tsunami hazard and risk assessment for multiple buildings by considering the spatial correlation of wave height using copulas
Comparing the efficiency of hypoxia mitigation strategies in an urban, turbid tidal river via a coupled hydro-sedimentary–biogeochemical model
Machine learning analysis of lifeguard flag decisions and recorded rescues
Reconstructing patterns of coastal risk in space and time along the US Atlantic coast, 1970–2016
Ensemble models from machine learning: an example of wave runup and coastal dune erosion
Environmental controls on surf zone injuries on high-energy beaches
Extreme significant wave height of tropical cyclone waves in the South China Sea
Coastline evolution based on statistical analysis and modeling
Probabilistic characteristics of narrow-band long-wave run-up onshore
Impact of hurricanes Irma and Maria on the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center initial tsunami warning capability for the Caribbean region
Spatial distribution of water level impacting back-barrier bays
The effects of changing climate on estuarine water levels: a United States Pacific Northwest case study
Assessment of the 1783 Scilla landslide–tsunami's effects on the Calabrian and Sicilian coasts through numerical modeling
The effect of cyclones crossing the Mediterranean region on sea level anomalies on the Mediterranean Sea coast
Update of the tsunami catalogue of New Caledonia using a decision table based on seismic data and marigraphic records
What's streamflow got to do with it? A probabilistic simulation of the competing oceanographic and fluvial processes driving extreme along-river water levels
Large eddy simulation modeling of tsunami-like solitary wave processes over fringing reefs
Speeding up tsunami forecasting to boost tsunami warning in Chile
Numerical simulations of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami deposits' thicknesses and emplacements
Water-level attenuation in global-scale assessments of exposure to coastal flooding: a sensitivity analysis
Brief communication: Modulation instability of internal waves in a smoothly stratified shallow fluid with a constant buoyancy frequency
From regional to local SPTHA: efficient computation of probabilistic tsunami inundation maps addressing near-field sources
Estimations of rip current rescues and drowning in the United States
The Lituya Bay landslide-generated mega-tsunami – numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis
Reanalysis of the 1761 transatlantic tsunami
Coastal vulnerability assessment: through regional to local downscaling of wave characteristics along the Bay of Lalzit (Albania)
Tsunamigenic potential of a Holocene submarine landslide along the North Anatolian Fault (northern Aegean Sea, off Thasos island): insights from numerical modelling
Analysis of the risk associated with coastal flooding hazards: a new historical extreme storm surges dataset for Dunkirk, France
Numerical and remote techniques for operational beach management under storm group forcing
Field survey of Typhoon Hato (2017) and a comparison with storm surge modeling in Macau
Adrien Poupardin, Eric Calais, Philippe Heinrich, Hélène Hébert, Mathieu Rodriguez, Sylvie Leroy, Hideo Aochi, and Roby Douilly
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2055–2065, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2055-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2055-2020, 2020
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The Mw 7 Haiti earthquake in 2010 was accompanied by local tsunamis that caused fatalities and damage to coastal infrastructure. Earthquakes alone could not explain all observations in Hispaniola Island. We suspected that a big submarine landslide occured and generated the 3 m high waves observed near Jacmel and Pedernales. We identify a landslide scar 30 km from the epicenter and at a depth of 3500 m and we simulate the corresponding tsunami which gives results very close to observations.
Iris Grabemann, Lidia Gaslikova, Tabea Brodhagen, and Elisabeth Rudolph
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1985–2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1985-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1985-2020, 2020
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Storm tides threaten the low-lying regions of the North Sea protected by dikes. Extreme storm tides with very low probabilities of occurrence could be important for coastal risk management due to their potential high impact. We searched an extensive data set of simulations and identified extreme storm tides higher than those observed since 1900. We investigated how two of the events evolved in the near-shore areas of the Ems estuary and their potential for physically plausible amplification.
Angel Amores, Marta Marcos, Diego S. Carrió, and Lluís Gómez-Pujol
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1955–1968, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1955-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1955-2020, 2020
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Storm Gloria hit the Mediterranean Spanish coastlines between 20 and 23 January 2020, causing severe damages such as flooding of the Ebro River delta. We evaluate its coastal impacts with a numerical simulation of the wind waves and the accumulated ocean water along the coastline (storm surge). The storm surge that reached values up to 1 m was mainly driven by the wind that also generated wind waves up to 8 m in height. We also determine the extent of the Ebro Delta flooded by marine water.
Marc Andreevsky, Yasser Hamdi, Samuel Griolet, Pietro Bernardara, and Roberto Frau
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1705–1717, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1705-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1705-2020, 2020
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A methodology to perform a regional frequency analysis centred on a target site is proposed. The spatial extremogram technique is used to form a physically and statistically homogeneous region around the site of interest. This is of fundamental importance to conducting a more proper regional analysis. A regional frequency estimation of extreme skew storm surges on the French coasts is carried out.
Francesco De Leo, Sebastián Solari, and Giovanni Besio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1233–1246, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1233-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1233-2020, 2020
Ning Xu, Shuai Yuan, Xueqin Liu, Yuxian Ma, Wenqi Shi, and Dayong Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1107–1121, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1107-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1107-2020, 2020
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Sea ice disasters seriously threaten the safety of oil platforms in the Bohai Sea. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out risk assessments of sea ice disasters on oil platforms in the Bohai Sea. The analysis results showed that efficient sea ice prevention strategies could largely mitigate the sea-ice-induced vibration-related risks to jacket platforms. The sea ice risk assessment method can be applied in the design, operation, and management of other engineering structures.
Wahyu Widiyanto, Shih-Chun Hsiao, Wei-Bo Chen, Purwanto B. Santoso, Rudy T. Imananta, and Wei-Cheng Lian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 933–946, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-933-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-933-2020, 2020
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This article reports the results of a field survey carried out in the disaster area of the December 2018 Sunda Strait tsunami, Indonesia. It provides data covering run-up heights, inundations, tsunami directions, and sediment characteristics. The data can be used for the validation of hydrodynamic models, and they contribute to a better understanding of the Sunda Strait tsunami caused by the Anak Krakatau volcano. In addition, they are important for spatial planning and mitigation efforts.
Scott A. Stephens, Robert G. Bell, and Ivan D. Haigh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 783–796, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-783-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-783-2020, 2020
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Extreme sea levels in New Zealand occur in nearby places and at similar times, which means that flooding impacts and losses may be linked in space and time. The most extreme sea levels depend on storms coinciding with very high tides because storm surges are relatively small in New Zealand. The type of storm weather system influences where the extreme sea levels occur, and the annual timing is influenced by the low-amplitude (~10 cm) annual sea-level cycle.
Guan-Yu Chen, Chin-Chih Liu, Janaka J. Wijetunge, and Yi-Fung Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 771–781, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-771-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-771-2020, 2020
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Tsunamis generated by submarine landslides were considered rare. However, more and more studies indicate that many tsunami events can be attributed to submarine landslides. At the same time, knowledge and experience have been accumulated in simulating this kind of tsunami. We believe it is time to think about the forecast of this kind of tsunami, and the approach we use is very helpful in building a feasible forecast system for submarine landslide tsunamis.
Svetlana Jevrejeva, Lucy Bricheno, Jennifer Brown, David Byrne, Michela De Dominicis, Andy Matthews, Stefanie Rynders, Hindumathi Palanisamy, and Judith Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-46, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-46, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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We explore the role of waves, storm surges and sea level rise for the Caribbean region with a focus on the eastern Caribbean islands. We simulate past extreme events, suggesting a storm surge might reach 1.5 m and coastal wave heights up to 12 m offshore and up to 5 m near the coast of St Vincent. We provide sea level projections up to 2.2 m by 2100. Our work provides quantitative evidence for policy makers, scientists, and local communities to actively protect against climate change.
Kristian Breili, Matthew James Ross Simpson, Erlend Klokkervold, and Oda Roaldsdotter Ravndal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 673–694, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-673-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-673-2020, 2020
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Using accurate elevation data, we generate coastal flooding maps for Norway. Although Norway is at low risk from sea level rise, parts of the coast are potentially vulnerable to flooding. Nationwide we identify an area of 400 km2, 105 000 buildings, and 510 km of roads that are at risk of flooding from a storm surge at present (these numbers increase to 610 km2, 137 000, and 1340 km with projected sea level rise to 2090). The maps aid coastal management and climate adaption in Norway.
Syamsidik, Benazir, Mumtaz Luthfi, Anawat Suppasri, and Louise K. Comfort
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 549–565, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-549-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-549-2020, 2020
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On 22 December 2018, a tsunami was generated from the Mount Anak Krakatau area that was caused by volcanic flank failures. The tsunami had severe impacts on the western coasts of Banten and the southern coasts of Lampung in Indonesia. A series of surveys to measure the impacts of the tsunami was started 3 d after the tsunami and lasted for 10 d. This paper provides insights from the tsunami-affected area in terms of distribution of tsunami flow depths, boulders and building damage.
Christian Ferrarin, Andrea Valentini, Martin Vodopivec, Dijana Klaric, Giovanni Massaro, Marco Bajo, Francesca De Pascalis, Amedeo Fadini, Michol Ghezzo, Stefano Menegon, Lidia Bressan, Silvia Unguendoli, Anja Fettich, Jure Jerman, Matjaz̆ Ličer, Lidija Fustar, Alvise Papa, and Enrico Carraro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 73–93, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-73-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-73-2020, 2020
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Here we present a shared and interoperable system to allow a better exchange of and elaboration on information related to sea storms among countries. The proposed integrated web system (IWS) is a combination of a common data system for sharing ocean observations and forecasts, a multi-model ensemble system, a geoportal, and interactive geo-visualization tools. This study describes the application of the developed system to the exceptional storm event of 29 October 2018.
Havu Pellikka, Terhi K. Laurila, Hanna Boman, Anu Karjalainen, Jan-Victor Björkqvist, and Kimmo K. Kahma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-3, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-3, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Meteotsunamis are long waves created by atmospheric disturbances travelling over the sea, potentially hazardous in rare cases. Their occurrence in the Baltic Sea has been poorly known, which is why we examine century-long sea level records from the Gulf of Finland to identify these waves. In total, 121 potential meteotsunamis were found. The strong connection between meteotsunami occurrence and lightning observations indicates that meteotsunamis in this region occur during thunderstorms.
Philip M. Orton, Eric W. Sanderson, Stefan A. Talke, Mario Giampieri, and Kytt MacManus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-343, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-343, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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The geometry of estuaries is often altered through dredging to make room for larger ships, and with extensive landfill over wetlands for development. Here, we use historical maps to help create computational models of seawater flow around and into a lagoonal bay of New York City for the 1880s and 2010s. The influence of these past manmade changes is to cause higher coastal storm tides, and we show that they result specifically from deeper depths, expanded inlet width and eliminated floodplains.
Matjaž Ličer, Solène Estival, Catalina Reyes-Suarez, Davide Deponte, and Anja Fettich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-362, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-362, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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On 29 October 2018 a windsurfer’s mast broke about 1 km offshore during a severe Scirocco storm in the Northern Adriatic Sea. He was drifting in severe marine conditions until he eventually beached alive and well in Sistiana (Italy) 24
hours later. We conducted an interview with the survivor to reconstruct his trajectory and to gain insight into his swimming and paddling strategy. We simulate his trajectory in several ways and estimate optimal search-and-rescue area for civil rescue response.
Ahmed A. Abdalazeez, Ira Didenkulova, and Denys Dutykh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2905–2913, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2905-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2905-2019, 2019
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This work is based on the authors' idea that asymmetry of a tsunami wave gained during its propagation in the ocean should also influence its run-up height on the slope. This was previously analytically shown by the authors for sinusoidal waves. In the paper, this idea is elaborated for single waves using both semi-analytical and numerical methods. The corresponding formula for the maximum run-up height which takes into account the wave front steepness is proposed.
Andrea Cerase, Massimo Crescimbene, Federica La Longa, and Alessandro Amato
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2887–2904, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2887-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2887-2019, 2019
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Southern Italy coasts are at risk of being hit by tsunamis. To address risk mitigation policies and risk communication, the authors implemented a sample survey on 1021 interviewees living in the coastal municipalities of Calabria and Apulia. People’s risk perception appears low: almost half of the sample considers tsunamis unlikely. Relevant differences emerge as a result of different risk perception in Tyrrhenian Calabria, where people are more likely to associate tsunami risk with volcanoes.
Matteo U. Parodi, Alessio Giardino, Ap van Dongeren, Stuart G. Pearson, Jeremy D. Bricker, and Ad J. H. M. Reniers
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-392, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-392, 2019
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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We investigate sources of uncertainty in coastal flood risk assessment in São Tomé and Príncipe, a Small Island Developing State. We find that, for the present day scenario, uncertainty from depth damage functions and digital elevation models can be more significant than that related to the estimation of significant wave height or storm surge level. For future scenarios (year 2100), sea level rise prediction becomes the input with the strongest impact on coastal flood damage estimate.
Wahyu Widiyanto, Purwanto B. Santoso, Shih-Chun Hsiao, and Rudy T. Imananta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2781–2794, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2781-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2781-2019, 2019
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This paper reports the results of a post-tsunami field survey conducted in the disaster area of the 28 September 2018 Sulawesi, Indonesia, tsunami. It provides evidence covering run-up heights, inundations, tsunami arrival times, damage characteristics, and coastal landslides. The results can be used for validation of hydrodynamic models, and they contribute to a comprehensive understanding of the Sulawesi tsunami. They are also important for mitigation, regional planning, and development.
Yo Fukutani, Shuji Moriguchi, Kenjiro Terada, Takuma Kotani, Yu Otake, and Toshikazu Kitano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2619–2634, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2619-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2619-2019, 2019
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We demonstrate a method of tsunami risk assessment for two buildings using copulas of tsunami hazards that can consider the nonlinear spatial correlation of wave heights. As a result, the maximum value of the expected aggregate damage probability was approximately 3.0 % higher in the case considering the wave height correlation. We clearly showed the importance of considering wave height correlation and the usefulness of copula modeling in evaluating the tsunami risk of a building portfolio.
Katixa Lajaunie-Salla, Aldo Sottolichio, Sabine Schmidt, Xavier Litrico, Guillaume Binet, and Gwenaël Abril
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2551–2564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2551-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2551-2019, 2019
Chris Houser, Jacob Lehner, Nathan Cherry, and Phil Wernette
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2541–2549, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2541-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2541-2019, 2019
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On many beaches, lifeguards set out flags to warn beach users of the surf and rip hazard based on the regional surf forecast and careful observation. There is a potential that the chosen flag does not accurately reflect the potential risk. Results of a machine learning analysis suggest that the greatest number of rescues occurred on days when the lifeguard flew a more cautious flag than the model predicted. It is argued that that beach users may be discounting lifeguard warnings.
Scott B. Armstrong and Eli D. Lazarus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2497–2511, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2497-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2497-2019, 2019
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This work examines relationships between coastal hazard, exposure, and vulnerability to describe trajectories of risk at the county scale along the US Atlantic coast over the past 5 decades. Our findings suggest that modelling efforts to predict future coastal risk need to address feedbacks between hazard, exposure, and vulnerability to capture emergent patterns of risk in space and time.
Tomas Beuzen, Evan B. Goldstein, and Kristen D. Splinter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2295–2309, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2295-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2295-2019, 2019
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Wave runup is important for characterizing coastal vulnerability to wave action; however, it is complex and uncertain to predict. We use machine learning with a high-resolution dataset of wave runup to develop an accurate runup predictor that includes prediction uncertainty. We show how uncertainty in wave runup predictions can be used practically in a model of dune erosion to make ensemble predictions that provide more information and greater predictive skill than a single deterministic model.
Bruno Castelle, Tim Scott, Rob Brander, Jak McCarroll, Arthur Robinet, Eric Tellier, Elias de Korte, Bruno Simonnet, and Louis-Rachid Salmi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2183–2205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2183-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2183-2019, 2019
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For the first time we explore the influence of environmental conditions (wave and weather conditions, tide elevation, and beach morphology) on surf zone injuries (e.g. drowning incidents, spine injuries). Serious injuries are caused by the two primary hazards found along high-energy surf beaches: shore-break waves and narrow seaward-flowing rip currents, which have different environmental controls. Results have strong implications for future beach safety management and education of beach users.
Zhuxiao Shao, Bingchen Liang, Huajun Li, Ping Li, and Dongyoung Lee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2067–2077, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2067-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2067-2019, 2019
Elvira Armenio, Francesca De Serio, Michele Mossa, and Antonio F. Petrillo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1937–1953, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1937-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1937-2019, 2019
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The present study describes an approach for the assessment of beach accretion–erosion, based on the joint use of data analysis, statistical methods and one-line numerical modeling. A chain method is proposed, based on the joint analysis of field data, statistical tools and numerical modeling. The coastline morphology has been examined through interannual field data, such as aerial photographs, plane-bathymetric surveys and seabed characterization.
Sergey Gurbatov and Efim Pelinovsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1925–1935, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1925-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1925-2019, 2019
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Hazardous sea waves that have irregular structures approach the coast very often. They should be characterized by their statistical characteristics. They are found here within an analytical theory of shallow-water wave run-up on a beach without breaking. Obtained distribution functions can be used for estimates of the flooding zone characteristics in marine natural hazards.
Victor Sardina, David Walsh, Kanoa Koyanagi, Stuart Weinstein, Nathan Becker, Charles McCreery, and Christa von Hillebrandt-Andrade
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1865–1880, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1865-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1865-2019, 2019
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We quantified the impact of hurricanes Irma and Maria on the PTWC initial tsunami warning capability for the Caribbean region after accounting for hurricane-related seismic station outages. Within the eastern Caribbean region the hurricanes exacerbated outages to an astonishing 82 % of the available 76 stations. This resulted in up to 02:33 and 04:33 min added to the earthquake detection and response times, effectively knocking out PTWC's local tsunami warning capabilities in the region.
Alfredo L. Aretxabaleta, Neil K. Ganju, Zafer Defne, and Richard P. Signell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1823–1838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1823-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1823-2019, 2019
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Water levels in bays are affected by open-ocean changes and wind. Tides are more dampened in the bays than storm surges and sea level rise. We compare observed and modeled levels with ocean conditions and combine them with analytical models. We consider the local setup, caused by wind along the bay. Expansion using the ADCIRC tidal database will allow coverage of other bay systems on the United States East Coast. Spatial estimates of water level can inform decisions about bay flooding hazards.
Kai Parker, David Hill, Gabriel García-Medina, and Jordan Beamer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1601–1618, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1601-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1601-2019, 2019
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Our ability to manage estuaries is currently limited by a poor understanding of how they will evolve into the future. This study explores flooding conditions at two US Pacific estuaries as controlled by changing climate. The hazard is characterized using a variety of models that track oceanic, atmospheric, and hydrologic forcing at decadal scales. It is found that flood surface height varies significantly across estuaries and can be expected to change in complex ways moving into the future.
Filippo Zaniboni, Gianluca Pagnoni, Glauco Gallotti, Maria Ausilia Paparo, Alberto Armigliato, and Stefano Tinti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1585–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1585-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1585-2019, 2019
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This work represents the extension of a previous investigation of the 1783 lethal landslide–tsunami, provoking more than 1500 casualties in the coastal town of Scilla. The effects of the tsunami are assessed here over a wider domain and compared with the available observations from historical reports. The eastern end of Sicily (Capo Peloro) is the most affected site in the far-field. A tentative reconstruction of the coeval topography of the area is also realized, with interesting results.
Piero Lionello, Dario Conte, and Marco Reale
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1541–1564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1541-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1541-2019, 2019
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Large positive and negative sea level anomalies on the coast of the Mediterranean Sea are produced by cyclones moving along the Mediterranean storm track, which are mostly generated in the western Mediterranean. The wind around the cyclone center is the main cause of sea level anomalies when a shallow water fetch is present. The inverse barometer effect produces a positive anomaly near the cyclone pressure minimum and a negative anomaly at the opposite side of the Mediterranean Sea.
Jean Roger, Bernard Pelletier, and Jérôme Aucan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1471–1483, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1471-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1471-2019, 2019
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This paper presents an update of the tsunami catalogue of New Caledonia within the framework of the tsunami hazard assessment project TSUCAL. It provides 25 events for the last decade, leading to 37 tsunamis triggered by earthquakes reported in New Caledonia since 1875. It is a topic of great concern for modelers looking for real case data to set up potential scenarios and for decision makers to constrain hazard management including evacuation processes in the case of a tsunami.
Katherine A. Serafin, Peter Ruggiero, Kai Parker, and David F. Hill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1415–1431, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1415-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1415-2019, 2019
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In coastal environments, extreme water levels driving flooding are often generated by many individual processes like storm surge, streamflow, and tides. To estimate flood drivers along a coastal river, we merge statistical simulations of ocean and river forcing with a hydraulic model to produce water levels. We find both ocean and river forcing are necessary for producing extreme flood levels like the 100-yr event, highlighting the need for considering compound events in flood risk assessments.
Yu Yao, Tiancheng He, Zhengzhi Deng, Long Chen, and Huiqun Guo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1281–1295, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1281-2019, 2019
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A tsunami can be destructive when it inundates the coastal areas. In recent years, the positive role of coral reefs in mitigating tsunami waves has aroused the attention of scholars. We therefore investigate the tsunami wave interaction with a reef profile via a sophisticated numerical model. We find that the low-lying coastal areas, fringed by coral reefs with milder back-reef beaches and smaller lagoons, are less susceptible to coastal inundation during a tsunami event.
Mauricio Fuentes, Sebastian Arriola, Sebastian Riquelme, and Bertrand Delouis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1297–1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1297-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1297-2019, 2019
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This work provides a simple and fast approach to improve tsunami warning systems in the near field. A color-coded warning map is produced almost instantaneously after the seismic information is received. Time is crucial in the near-field case; for instance, the tsunami waves generated in the Chilean trench arrive at the coastline in around 10–15 min. Seismic information takes 3–5 min to be ready; thus we produce a first warning map 6 min after the earthquake origin time.
Syamsidik, Musa Al'ala, Hermann M. Fritz, Mirza Fahmi, and Teuku Mudi Hafli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1265–1280, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1265-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1265-2019, 2019
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The use of numerical simulations to study tsunami-induced sediment transport was rare in Indonesia until the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. This study aims to couple two hydrodynamic numerical models in order to reproduce tsunami-induced sediment deposits, i.e., their locations and thicknesses. Numerical simulations were performed using the Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami (COMCOT) model and Delft3D. Lhoong, in the Aceh Besar District, Indonesia, was selected as the study site for this research.
Athanasios T. Vafeidis, Mark Schuerch, Claudia Wolff, Tom Spencer, Jan L. Merkens, Jochen Hinkel, Daniel Lincke, Sally Brown, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 973–984, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-973-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-973-2019, 2019
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This paper evaluates the effect of surge water level reduction due to land surface characteristics when assessing flood impacts at global scales. Our results show that uncertainties due to not accounting for water attenuation are of similar magnitude to the uncertainties regarding the total amount of sea-level rise expected by 2100, thus highlighting the need for better understanding of the spatial and temporal variation of water levels across floodplains.
Kwok Wing Chow, Hiu Ning Chan, and Roger H. J. Grimshaw
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 583–587, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-583-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-583-2019, 2019
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Oceanic rogue waves are unexpectedly large displacements from a tranquil background and pose dangers to shipping and offshore structures. A formulation of such abrupt, transient motions in the interior of the oceans is proposed. For constant buoyancy frequency, such internal rogue waves can occur in shallow fluids of various internal mode numbers, which is in strong contrast with surface rogue waves. Internal waves are crucial in oceanography as they affect transport of heat, mass and energy.
Manuela Volpe, Stefano Lorito, Jacopo Selva, Roberto Tonini, Fabrizio Romano, and Beatriz Brizuela
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 455–469, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-455-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-455-2019, 2019
B. Chris Brewster, Richard E. Gould, and Robert W. Brander
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 389–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-389-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-389-2019, 2019
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Rip currents are the greatest hazard to swimmers at surf beaches, but studies of the percentage of rescues and number of drownings attributable to rip currents have reached varying conclusions. This study uses rescue data reported to the United States Lifesaving Association by surf beach rescuers to show that rip currents are the primary cause of an average of more than 80 % of surf rescues, and to estimate that, they are the primary contributor to over 100 drowning deaths annually in the US.
José Manuel González-Vida, Jorge Macías, Manuel Jesús Castro, Carlos Sánchez-Linares, Marc de la Asunción, Sergio Ortega-Acosta, and Diego Arcas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 369–388, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-369-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-369-2019, 2019
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In 1958, at Lituya Bay in Alaska, the largest tsunami wave ever recorded took place. Since then, its numerical simulation has been a challenge and no numerical model has been able to reproduce, in the real geometry of the bay, the more than 200 m wave and the extreme run-up (climbing of the water up on land) of 524 m. The aim of our research, in the framework of a collaboration between the University of Malága (Spain) and NOAA (US), was to fulfil this gap at the same time as verifying our model.
Martin Wronna, Maria Ana Baptista, and Jorge Miguel Miranda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 337–352, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-337-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-337-2019, 2019
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We investigate the source of the 1761 earthquake and tsunami. The reanalysis of the tsunami travel times agrees with an earlier suggested source area. We check the geodynamic setting of the area and place a fault as an extension to an identified fault and use numerical modelling to distinguish between two candidate sources. One of our theories is compatible with the geodynamic setting and reproduces well the observed tsunami parameters.
Francesco De Leo, Giovanni Besio, Guido Zolezzi, and Marco Bezzi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 287–298, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-287-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-287-2019, 2019
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This paper reviews the computation of vulnerability levels (VLs) of a coast to inundation with a known model. We refer to the original proposal, detailing the VL computation through an accurate investigation of the local wave climate. We prove that the resulting vulnerability is very sensitive due to the wave features taken into account, which have to be properly assessed. The research is the follow-up of a wider project set along the Bay of Lalzit (Albania).
Alexandre Janin, Mathieu Rodriguez, Dimitris Sakellariou, Vasilis Lykousis, and Christian Gorini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 121–136, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-121-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-121-2019, 2019
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Here we present new numerical simulations showing that Holocene submarine landslides along the North Anatolian Fault in the Aegean Sea may have triggered tsunamis higher than the ones expected for earthquake sources. During the Holocene, the shore facing the city of Alexandroupoli may have been impacted by tsunami up to 1.65 m at the coastline.
Yasser Hamdi, Emmanuel Garnier, Nathalie Giloy, Claire-Marie Duluc, and Vincent Rebour
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3383–3402, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3383-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3383-2018, 2018
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As coastal zones are densely populated, marine flooding represents a hazard threatening populations and facilities (e.g., nuclear plants) along the shore. Using historical data can significantly improve the analysis of extremes. To address this issue, 500 years of historical storms were recovered from archives and used in frequency estimations of marine flooding extremes. The new dataset provides a valuable source of information on storm surges for future characterization of coastal hazards.
Verónica Morales-Márquez, Alejandro Orfila, Gonzalo Simarro, Lluís Gómez-Pujol, Amaya Álvarez-Ellacuría, Daniel Conti, Álvaro Galán, Andrés F. Osorio, and Marta Marcos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3211–3223, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3211-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3211-2018, 2018
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This work analyzes the response of a beach under a series of storms using a numerical model, in situ measurements and video imaging.
Time recovery after storms is a key issue for local beach managers, who are pressed by tourism stakeholders to nourish the beach
after energetic processes in order to reach the quality standards required by beach users.
Linlin Li, Jie Yang, Chuan-Yao Lin, Constance Ting Chua, Yu Wang, Kuifeng Zhao, Yun-Ta Wu, Philip Li-Fan Liu, Adam D. Switzer, Kai Meng Mok, Peitao Wang, and Dongju Peng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3167–3178, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3167-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3167-2018, 2018
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Typhoon Hato was one of the most damaging natural disaster events in the western Pacific region in 2017. It caused the the worst flooding in Macau since its instrumental records began in 1925. We present a high-resolution survey map recording inundation depths and distances at 278 sites in Macau. We provide a series of inundation maps under different tidal and sea levels. The maps that highlight adaptive strategies are essential in order to keep up with the pace of rising sea level.
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