Articles | Volume 23, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review article
| 
21 Nov 2023
Review article |
| 21 Nov 2023
| 21 Nov 2023
Review article: Towards improved drought prediction in the Mediterranean region – modeling approaches and future directions
School of Computer Science, Mohammed VI Polytechnic University, Ben Guerir, 43150, Morocco
Nabil El Moçayd
International Water Research Institute, Mohammed VI Polytechnic University, Ben Guerir, 43150, Morocco
Institute of Applied Physics, Mohammed VI Polytechnic University, Ben Guerir, 43150, Morocco
El Houcine Bergou
School of Computer Science, Mohammed VI Polytechnic University, Ben Guerir, 43150, Morocco
Related authors
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Nabil El Moçayd and Abdelaziz Chaqdid
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5092, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5092, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Surrogate models reduce the computational cost of uncertainty quantification, but their performance depends on how accuracy is defined. Using extreme precipitation, we show that accurate pointwise prediction does not guarantee faithful representation of the response distribution. Observed extremes also occupy low-probability model responses, showing that climatological calibration may not ensure accurate extremes, with implications for climate impact and risk assessment.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alexandre Tuel, Nabil El Moçayd, Moulay Driss Hasnaoui, and Elfatih A. B. Eltahir
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 571–588, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-571-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-571-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Snowmelt in the High Atlas is critical for irrigation in Morocco but is threatened by climate change. We assess future trends in High Atlas snowpack by modelling it under historical and future climate scenarios and estimate their impact on runoff. We find that the combined warming and drying will result in a roughly 80 % decline in snowpack, a 5 %–30 % decrease in runoff efficiency and 50 %–60 % decline in runoff under a business-as-usual scenario.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
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In this study, we underscore the critical importance of strengthening drought prediction capabilities in the Mediterranean region. We present an in-depth evaluation of current drought forecasting approaches, encompassing statistical, dynamical, and hybrid statistical–dynamical models, and highlight unexplored research opportunities. Additionally, we suggest viable directions to enhance drought prediction and early warning systems within the area.
In this study, we underscore the critical importance of strengthening drought prediction...
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