Articles | Volume 23, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review article
| 
21 Nov 2023
Review article |
| 21 Nov 2023
| 21 Nov 2023
Review article: Towards improved drought prediction in the Mediterranean region – modeling approaches and future directions
School of Computer Science, Mohammed VI Polytechnic University, Ben Guerir, 43150, Morocco
Nabil El Moçayd
International Water Research Institute, Mohammed VI Polytechnic University, Ben Guerir, 43150, Morocco
Institute of Applied Physics, Mohammed VI Polytechnic University, Ben Guerir, 43150, Morocco
El Houcine Bergou
School of Computer Science, Mohammed VI Polytechnic University, Ben Guerir, 43150, Morocco
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- Regional Copula Modeling of Rainfall Duration and Intensity: Derivation and Validation of IDF Curves in the Kastoria Basin E. Leivadiotis et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology13040117
- Spatiotemporal drought analysis and future risk assessment using multi-index remote sensing approach and hybrid trend-based prediction modeling A. Polat et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-025-14895-6
- Monitoring drought occurrence through a count-based statistical modeling R. Farooq et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2026.104426
- Improving drought risk assessment using advanced statistical approaches R. Farooq et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-026-01918-0
- Assessing drought dynamics in a semi-arid basin: a multi-index approach using hydrological and remote-sensing indicators M. Mliyeh et al. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12302-025-01240-4
- Drought Analysis Methods: A Multidisciplinary Review with Insights on Key Decision-Making Factors in Method Selection A. Ahady et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17152248
- A Bayesian Framework for Spatiotemporal Analysis of Meteorological Drought Dynamics R. Farooq et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-025-03841-9
- Bivariate Characterization of Long-Term Hydrological Drought Risks Using SRI and Archimedean Copulas M. Achite et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology13040104
- Seasonal drought predictions in the Mediterranean using the SPEI index: Paving the way for their operational applicability in climate services S. Brands et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100555
- Elevated vapor pressure deficit drives compound drought intensification across spatiotemporal scales Y. Pang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105552
- North Atlantic Oscillation modulation of drought and vegetation activity in Türkiye M. Çelik et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05971-5
- Seasonal and non-stationary climate controls on meteorological drought in a Mediterranean mountain region: the Western Rif (Morocco), 1980–2019 A. Al Mashoudi et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42990-026-00237-2
- Climate Study Insights for the Tourism Sector: Analysis of Selected Pilot Regions in Croatia M. Zovko et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/geographies6010017
- Drought feature assessment unravels how temperature increase has enhanced earlier and more severe drought in Lebanon over the last 60 years G. Elias et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102930
- Enhancing Drought Prediction in Semi-Arid Climates: A Synthetic Data and Neural Network Approach Applied to Karaman Region, Turkey A. Duvan & S. Yildizel https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17020172
- Using Calibrated Rainfall Forecasts and Observed Rainfall to Produce Probabilistic Meteorological Drought Forecasts Z. Chua et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12040054
- Spatial and temporal monitoring of drought in Northern Algeria using the SPEI index derived from ERA5 reanalysis data B. Habibi et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-026-06328-2
- Targeting critical zones: A review of heterogeneity identification methods and driving mechanisms of watershed phosphorus transport Q. Wu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jconhyd.2026.104857
- Identifying Persistent Drought Regions for Mediterranean Basin Using Simple Coincidence Deficit Index Approach G. Akan et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17050752
- Bayesian panel modeling of spatiotemporal dynamics in intraseasonal meteorological drought persistence R. Farooq et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-025-03027-8
- Review of global climate models used for drought assessment and forecasting S. Tayyaba et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43832-026-00352-z
- Decoding Iran’s Drought Drivers: An Explainable AI Approach to Unraveling Global Teleconnection Impacts P. Mahmoudi et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-025-00925-3
- How Good Are Drought Forecasts? Skill of multi-model Seasonal Forecast of Meteorological Droughts in a semi-arid Mediterranean Basin D. Avila-Velasquez et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-025-00965-9
- Spatiotemporal variations of global precipitation concentration and potential links to flood-drought events in past 70 years J. Sun et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108086
- Land-atmosphere and ocean–atmosphere couplings dominate the dynamics of agricultural drought predictability in the Loess Plateau, China J. Luo et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132225
- Seasonal forecasting of dam water resources using optimized hybrid models under unprecedented drought conditions I. Hanadé Houmma et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.103091
26 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Regional Copula Modeling of Rainfall Duration and Intensity: Derivation and Validation of IDF Curves in the Kastoria Basin E. Leivadiotis et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology13040117
- Spatiotemporal drought analysis and future risk assessment using multi-index remote sensing approach and hybrid trend-based prediction modeling A. Polat et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-025-14895-6
- Monitoring drought occurrence through a count-based statistical modeling R. Farooq et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2026.104426
- Improving drought risk assessment using advanced statistical approaches R. Farooq et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-026-01918-0
- Assessing drought dynamics in a semi-arid basin: a multi-index approach using hydrological and remote-sensing indicators M. Mliyeh et al. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12302-025-01240-4
- Drought Analysis Methods: A Multidisciplinary Review with Insights on Key Decision-Making Factors in Method Selection A. Ahady et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17152248
- A Bayesian Framework for Spatiotemporal Analysis of Meteorological Drought Dynamics R. Farooq et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-025-03841-9
- Bivariate Characterization of Long-Term Hydrological Drought Risks Using SRI and Archimedean Copulas M. Achite et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology13040104
- Seasonal drought predictions in the Mediterranean using the SPEI index: Paving the way for their operational applicability in climate services S. Brands et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100555
- Elevated vapor pressure deficit drives compound drought intensification across spatiotemporal scales Y. Pang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105552
- North Atlantic Oscillation modulation of drought and vegetation activity in Türkiye M. Çelik et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05971-5
- Seasonal and non-stationary climate controls on meteorological drought in a Mediterranean mountain region: the Western Rif (Morocco), 1980–2019 A. Al Mashoudi et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42990-026-00237-2
- Climate Study Insights for the Tourism Sector: Analysis of Selected Pilot Regions in Croatia M. Zovko et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/geographies6010017
- Drought feature assessment unravels how temperature increase has enhanced earlier and more severe drought in Lebanon over the last 60 years G. Elias et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102930
- Enhancing Drought Prediction in Semi-Arid Climates: A Synthetic Data and Neural Network Approach Applied to Karaman Region, Turkey A. Duvan & S. Yildizel https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17020172
- Using Calibrated Rainfall Forecasts and Observed Rainfall to Produce Probabilistic Meteorological Drought Forecasts Z. Chua et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12040054
- Spatial and temporal monitoring of drought in Northern Algeria using the SPEI index derived from ERA5 reanalysis data B. Habibi et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-026-06328-2
- Targeting critical zones: A review of heterogeneity identification methods and driving mechanisms of watershed phosphorus transport Q. Wu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jconhyd.2026.104857
- Identifying Persistent Drought Regions for Mediterranean Basin Using Simple Coincidence Deficit Index Approach G. Akan et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17050752
- Bayesian panel modeling of spatiotemporal dynamics in intraseasonal meteorological drought persistence R. Farooq et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-025-03027-8
- Review of global climate models used for drought assessment and forecasting S. Tayyaba et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43832-026-00352-z
- Decoding Iran’s Drought Drivers: An Explainable AI Approach to Unraveling Global Teleconnection Impacts P. Mahmoudi et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-025-00925-3
- How Good Are Drought Forecasts? Skill of multi-model Seasonal Forecast of Meteorological Droughts in a semi-arid Mediterranean Basin D. Avila-Velasquez et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-025-00965-9
- Spatiotemporal variations of global precipitation concentration and potential links to flood-drought events in past 70 years J. Sun et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108086
- Land-atmosphere and ocean–atmosphere couplings dominate the dynamics of agricultural drought predictability in the Loess Plateau, China J. Luo et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132225
- Seasonal forecasting of dam water resources using optimized hybrid models under unprecedented drought conditions I. Hanadé Houmma et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.103091
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Short summary
In this study, we underscore the critical importance of strengthening drought prediction capabilities in the Mediterranean region. We present an in-depth evaluation of current drought forecasting approaches, encompassing statistical, dynamical, and hybrid statistical–dynamical models, and highlight unexplored research opportunities. Additionally, we suggest viable directions to enhance drought prediction and early warning systems within the area.
In this study, we underscore the critical importance of strengthening drought prediction...
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