Articles | Volume 23, issue 1
Invited perspectives
20 Jan 2023
Invited perspectives |  | 20 Jan 2023

Invited perspectives: An insurer's perspective on the knowns and unknowns in natural hazard risk modelling

Madeleine-Sophie Déroche

Related subject area

Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 711–731,,, 2023
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May Laor and Zohar Gvirtzman
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Tsunami risk perception in central and southern Italy
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Cited articles

Baldwin, R. and Lopez-Gonzalez, J.: Supply-chain Trade: A Portrait of Global Patterns and Several Testable Hypotheses, World Econ., 38, 1682–1721,, 2015. 
Baum, S. D.: Risk and resilience for unknown, unquantifiable, systemic, and unlikely/catastrophic threats, Environ. Syst. Decis., 35, 229–236,, 2015. 
Beorchia, A. and Crook, T. R.: Bloomberg Supply Chain Analysis: A Data Source for Investigating the Nature, Size, and Structure of Interorganizational Relationships, in: Research Methodology in Strategy and Management, edited by: Crook, T. R., Lê, J., and Smith, A. D., Emerald Publishing Limited, 73–100,, 2020. 
Beven, K. J., Aspinall, W. P., Bates, P. D., Borgomeo, E., Goda, K., Hall, J. W., Page, T., Phillips, J. C., Simpson, M., Smith, P. J., Wagener, T., and Watson, M.: Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 2: What should constitute good practice?, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2769–2783,, 2018.  
Castagno, J. and Atkins, E.: Roof Shape Classification from LiDAR and Satellite Image Data Fusion Using Supervised Learning, Sensors, 18, 3960,, 2018. 
Short summary
This paper proves the need to conduct an in-depth review of the existing loss modelling framework and makes it clear that only a transdisciplinary effort will be up to the challenge of building global loss models. These two factors are essential to capture the interactions and increasing complexity of the three risk drivers (exposure, hazard, and vulnerability), thus enabling insurers to anticipate and be equipped to face the far-ranging impacts of climate change and other natural events.
Final-revised paper