Articles | Volume 22, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3663-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3663-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
14 Nov 2022
Research article |
| 14 Nov 2022
| 14 Nov 2022
Importance of non-stationary analysis for assessing extreme sea levels under sea level rise
Damiano Baldan
Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research, ISPRA, Venice, Italy
Elisa Coraci
Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research, ISPRA, Venice, Italy
Franco Crosato
Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research, ISPRA, Venice, Italy
Maurizio Ferla
Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research, ISPRA, Venice, Italy
Andrea Bonometto
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research, ISPRA, Venice, Italy
Sara Morucci
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research, ISPRA, Venice, Italy
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Marco Bajo, Christian Ferrarin, Georg Umgiesser, Andrea Bonometto, and Elisa Coraci
Ocean Sci., 19, 559–579, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-559-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-559-2023, 2023
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This work uses a hydrodynamic model which assimilates in situ data to reproduce tides, surges, and seiches in the Mediterranean basin. Furthermore, we study the periods of the barotropic modes of the Mediterranean and Adriatic basins. This research aims to improve the forecasting and reanalysis for operational warning and climatological studies. It aims also to reach a better knowledge of these sea level components in this area.
Begoña Pérez Gómez, Ivica Vilibić, Jadranka Šepić, Iva Međugorac, Matjaž Ličer, Laurent Testut, Claire Fraboul, Marta Marcos, Hassen Abdellaoui, Enrique Álvarez Fanjul, Darko Barbalić, Benjamín Casas, Antonio Castaño-Tierno, Srđan Čupić, Aldo Drago, María Angeles Fraile, Daniele A. Galliano, Adam Gauci, Branislav Gloginja, Víctor Martín Guijarro, Maja Jeromel, Marcos Larrad Revuelto, Ayah Lazar, Ibrahim Haktan Keskin, Igor Medvedev, Abdelkader Menassri, Mohamed Aïssa Meslem, Hrvoje Mihanović, Sara Morucci, Dragos Niculescu, José Manuel Quijano de Benito, Josep Pascual, Atanas Palazov, Marco Picone, Fabio Raicich, Mohamed Said, Jordi Salat, Erdinc Sezen, Mehmet Simav, Georgios Sylaios, Elena Tel, Joaquín Tintoré, Klodian Zaimi, and George Zodiatis
Ocean Sci., 18, 997–1053, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-997-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-997-2022, 2022
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This description and mapping of coastal sea level monitoring networks in the Mediterranean and Black seas reveals the existence of 240 presently operational tide gauges. Information is provided about the type of sensor, time sampling, data availability, and ancillary measurements. An assessment of the fit-for-purpose status of the network is also included, along with recommendations to mitigate existing bottlenecks and improve the network, in a context of sea level rise and increasing extremes.
Georg Umgiesser, Marco Bajo, Christian Ferrarin, Andrea Cucco, Piero Lionello, Davide Zanchettin, Alvise Papa, Alessandro Tosoni, Maurizio Ferla, Elisa Coraci, Sara Morucci, Franco Crosato, Andrea Bonometto, Andrea Valentini, Mirko Orlić, Ivan D. Haigh, Jacob Woge Nielsen, Xavier Bertin, André Bustorff Fortunato, Begoña Pérez Gómez, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Denis Paradis, Didier Jourdan, Audrey Pasquet, Baptiste Mourre, Joaquín Tintoré, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2679–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021, 2021
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The city of Venice relies crucially on a good storm surge forecast to protect its population and cultural heritage. In this paper, we provide a state-of-the-art review of storm surge forecasting, starting from examples in Europe and focusing on the Adriatic Sea and the Lagoon of Venice. We discuss the physics of storm surge, as well as the particular aspects of Venice and new techniques in storm surge modeling. We also give recommendations on what a future forecasting system should look like.
S. Mariani, M. Casaioli, E. Coraci, and P. Malguzzi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1–24, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1-2015, 2015
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In the HyMeX framework, an intercomparison study of two different configurations of the ISPRA hydro-meteo-marine forecasting system (SIMM) has been performed to assess the forecast skill in predicting high precipitations and very intense storm surges over the northern Adriatic Sea (acqua alta). The results show an objective added value of the use of high-resolution meteorological models, and they suggest the opportunity to develop a time-lagged multi-model ensemble for the acqua alta prediction.
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Eric Mortensen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Toon Haer, Bas van Bemmel, Dewi Le Bars, Sanne Muis, Dirk Eilander, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Arno Bouwman, Willem Ligtvoet, and Philip J. Ward
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 973–997, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-973-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-973-2024, 2024
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Shuaib Rasheed, Simon C. Warder, Yves Plancherel, and Matthew D. Piggott
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 737–755, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-737-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-737-2024, 2024
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Here we use a high-resolution bathymetry dataset of the Maldives archipelago, as well as corresponding high numerical model resolution, to carry out a scenario-based tsunami hazard assessment for the entire Maldives archipelago to investigate the potential impact of plausible far-field tsunamis across the Indian Ocean at the island scale. The results indicate that several factors contribute to mitigating and amplifying tsunami waves at the island scale.
Niels J. Korsgaard, Kristian Svennevig, Anne S. Søndergaard, Gregor Luetzenburg, Mimmi Oksman, and Nicolaj K. Larsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 757–772, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-757-2024, 2024
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A tsunami wave will leave evidence of erosion and deposition in coastal lakes, making it possible to determine the runup height and when it occurred. Here, we use four lakes now located at elevations of 19–91 m a.s.l. close to the settlement of Saqqaq, West Greenland, to show that at least two giant tsunamis occurred 7300–7600 years ago with runup heights larger than 40 m. We infer that any tsunamis from at least nine giga-scale landslides must have happened 8500–10 000 years ago.
Elke Magda Inge Meyer and Lidia Gaslikova
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 481–499, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-481-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-481-2024, 2024
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Storm tides for eight extreme historical storms in the German Bight are modelled using sets of slightly varying atmospheric conditions from the century reanalyses. Comparisons with the water level observations from the gauges Norderney, Cuxhaven and Husum show that single members of the reanalyses are suitable for the reconstruction of extreme storms. Storms with more northerly tracks show less variability within a set and have more potential for accurate reconstruction of extreme water levels.
Mandana Ghanavati, Ian Young, Ebru Kirezci, and Jin Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-205, 2024
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The paper examines the changes in shoreline position of the coast of south-east Australia over a 26 year period to determine if changes are consistent with observed changes in ocean wave and storm surge climate. The results show that in regions where there have been significant changes in wave energy flux or wave direction there have been changes in shoreline position consistent with non-equilibrium longshore drift.
Guangsheng Zhao and Xiaojing Niu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-227, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-227, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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The purpose of this study is to estimate the spatial distribution of the tsunami hazard in the South China Sea from the Manila subduction zone. The plate motion data is used to invert the degree of locking on the fault plane. The degree of locking is used to estimate the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes and describe the slip distribution. A spatial distribution map of the 1000-year return period tsunami wave height in the South China Sea was obtained by tsunami hazard assessment.
Clare Lewis, Tim Smyth, Jess Neumann, and Hannah Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 121–131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-121-2024, 2024
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Meteotsunami are the result of atmospheric disturbances and can impact coastlines causing injury, loss of life, and damage to assets. This paper introduces a novel intensity index to allow for the quantification of these events at the shoreline. This has the potential to assist in the field of natural hazard assessment. It was trialled in the UK but designed for global applicability and to become a widely accepted standard in coastal planning, meteotsunami forecasting, and early warning systems.
Chu-En Hsu, Katherine A. Serafin, Xiao Yu, Christie A. Hegermiller, John C. Warner, and Maitane Olabarrieta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3895–3912, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3895-2023, 2023
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Total water levels (TWLs) induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the leading hazards faced by coastal communities. Using numerical models, we examined how TWL components (surge and wave runup) along the South Atlantic Bight varied during hurricanes Matthew (2016), Dorian (2019), and Isaias (2020). Peak surge and peak wave runup were dominated by wind speeds and relative positions to TCs. The exceedance time of TWLs was controlled by normalized distances to TC and TC translation speeds.
Maude Biguenet, Eric Chaumillon, Pierre Sabatier, Antoine Bastien, Emeline Geba, Fabien Arnaud, Thibault Coulombier, and Nathalie Feuillet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3761–3788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3761-2023, 2023
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This work documents the impact of Hurricane Irma (2017) on the Codrington barrier and lagoon on Barbuda Island. Irma caused two wide breaches in the sandy barrier, which remained unopened for 250 years. The thick and extensive sand sheet at the top of the lagoon fill was attributed to Irma. This unique deposit in a 3700-year record confirms Irma's exceptional character. This case study illustrates the consequences of high-intensity hurricanes in low-lying islands in a global warming context.
Leigh Richard MacPherson, Arne Arns, Svenja Fischer, Fernando Javier Méndez, and Jürgen Jensen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3685–3701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023, 2023
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Efficient adaptation planning for coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels requires accurate assessments of the underlying hazard. Tide-gauge data alone are often insufficient for providing the desired accuracy but may be supplemented with historical information. We estimate extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast and show that relying solely on tide-gauge data leads to underestimations. Incorporating historical information leads to improved estimates with reduced uncertainties.
Anne Margaret H. Smiley, Suzanne P. Thompson, Nathan S. Hall, and Michael F. Piehler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3635–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023, 2023
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Floodwaters can deliver reactive nitrogen to sensitive aquatic systems and diminish water quality. We assessed the nitrogen removal capabilities of flooded habitats and urban landscapes. Differences in processing rates across land cover treatments and between nutrient treatments suggest that abundance and spatial distributions of habitats, as well as storm characteristics, influence landscape-scale nitrogen removal. Results have important implications for coastal development and climate change.
Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Enrico Duo, Juan Montes Perez, Paulo Cabrita, Paola Souto Ceccon, Véra Gastal, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3585–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, 2023
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Assessing coastal hazards is crucial to mitigate flooding disasters. In this regard, coastal flood databases are valuable tools. This paper describes a new coastal flood map catalogue covering the entire European coastline, as well as the methodology to build it and its accuracy. The catalogue focuses on frequent extreme events and relies on synthetic scenarios estimated from local storm conditions. Flood-prone areas and regions sensitive to storm duration and water level peak were identified.
Neng-Ti Yu, Cheng-Hao Lu, I-Chin Yen, Jia-Hong Chen, Jiun-Yee Yen, and Shyh-Jeng Chyi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3525–3542, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023, 2023
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A paleotsunami deposit of cliff-top basalt debris was identified on the Penghu Islands in the southern Taiwan Strait and related to the 1661 earthquake in southwest Taiwan. A minimum wave height of 3.2 m is estimated to have rotated the biggest boulder for over 30 m landwards onto the cliff top at 2.5 m a.s.l. The event must have been huge compared to the 1994 M 6.4 earthquake with the ensuing 0.4 m high tsunami in the same area, validating the intimidating tsunami risks in the South China Sea.
Ye Yuan, Huaiwei Yang, Fujiang Yu, Yi Gao, Benxia Li, and Chuang Xing
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3487–3507, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3487-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3487-2023, 2023
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Rip currents are narrow jets of offshore-directed flow that originated in the surf zone, which can take swimmers of all ability levels into deeper water unawares. In this study, a 1 m fine-resolution wave-resolving model was configured to study rip current variability and the optimal swimmer escape strategies. Multiple factors contribute to the survival of swimmers. However, for weak-to-moderate rip and longshore currents, swimming onshore consistently seems to be the most successful strategy.
Benedikt Mester, Thomas Vogt, Seth Bryant, Christian Otto, Katja Frieler, and Jacob Schewe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3467–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, 2023
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In 2019, Cyclone Idai displaced more than 478 000 people in Mozambique. In our study, we use coastal flood modeling and satellite imagery to construct a counterfactual cyclone event without the effects of climate change. We show that 12 600–14 900 displacements can be attributed to sea level rise and the intensification of storm wind speeds due to global warming. Our impact attribution study is the first one on human displacement and one of very few for a low-income country.
Thomas P. Collings, Niall D. Quinn, Ivan D. Haigh, Joshua Green, Izzy Probyn, Hamish Wilkinson, Sanne Muis, William V. Sweet, and Paul D. Bates
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2267, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2267, 2023
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Coastal areas are at risk of flooding from rising sea levels and extreme weather events. This study uses a new way to figure out how likely coastal flooding is around the world. The method uses data from observations and computer models to create a detailed map of where these floods might happen at the coast. The approach can predict flooding in areas where there is little or no data. The results can be used to help get ready for and prevent this type of flooding.
Kévin Dubois, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Martin Drews, Erik Nilsson, and Anna Rutgersson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-176, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-176, 2023
Preprint under review for NHESS
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Both extreme river discharge and storm surges can interact at the coast and lead to flooding. However, it is difficult to predict flood levels during such compound events because they are rare and complex. Here, we focus on the quantification of uncertainties; and we investigate the sources of limitations while carrying out such analyses at Halmstad city (Sweden). Based on a sensitivity analysis, we emphasize that both the choice of data source and statistical methodology influence the results.
Olivier Cavalié, Frédéric Cappa, and Béatrice Pinel-Puysségur
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3235–3246, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3235-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3235-2023, 2023
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Coastal areas are fragile ecosystems that face multiple hazards. In this study, we measured the downward motion of the Nice Côte d'Azur Airport (France) that was built on reclaimed area and found that it has subsided from 16 mm yr-1 in the 1990s to 8 mm yr-1 today. A continuous remote monitoring of the platform will provide key data for a detailed investigation of future subsidence maps, and this contribution will help to evaluate the potential failure of part of the airport platform.
Ina Teutsch, Ralf Weisse, and Sander Wahls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-174, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-174, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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We investigate buoy and radar measurement data from shallow depths in the southern North Sea. We analyse the role of solitons for the occurrence of rogue waves. This is done by computing the nonlinear soliton spectrum of each time series. In a previous study that considered a single measurement site, we found a connection between the shape of the soliton spectrum and the occurrence of rogue waves. In this study, results for two additional sites are reported.
Wagner L. L. Costa, Karin R. Bryan, and Giovanni Coco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3125–3146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3125-2023, 2023
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For predicting flooding events at the coast, topo-bathymetric data are essential. However, elevation data can be unavailable. To tackle this issue, recent efforts have centred on the use of satellite-derived topography (SDT) and bathymetry (SDB). This work is aimed at evaluating their accuracy and use for flooding prediction in enclosed estuaries. Results show that the use of SDT and SDB in numerical modelling can produce similar predictions when compared to the surveyed elevation data.
Joshua Kiesel, Marvin Lorenz, Marcel König, Ulf Gräwe, and Athanasios T. Vafeidis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2961–2985, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2961-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2961-2023, 2023
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Among the Baltic Sea littoral states, Germany is anticipated to experience considerable damage as a result of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise (SLR). Here we apply a new modelling framework to simulate how flooding along the German Baltic Sea coast may change until 2100 if dikes are not upgraded. We find that the study region is highly exposed to flooding, and we emphasise the importance of current plans to update coastal protection in the future.
Marc Igigabel, Marissa Yates, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Youssef Diab
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-154, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-154, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Changes in sea-levels alone do not determine the evolution of coastal hazards. Coastal hazard changes should be assessed using additional factors describing geomorphological configurations, meteocean events types (storms, cyclones, long swells and tsunamis) and the marine environment (e. g., coral reef state and sea ice extent). The assessment completed here, at regional scale including the coasts of mainland and overseas France, highlights significant differences in hazard changes.
Zhang Haixia, Cheng Meng, and Fang Weihua
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2697–2717, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2697-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2697-2023, 2023
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Simultaneous storm surge and waves can cause great damage due to cascading effects. Quantitative joint probability analysis is critical to determine their optimal protection design values. The joint probability of the surge and wave for the eastern coasts of Leizhou Peninsula and Hainan are estimated with a Gumbel copula based on 62 years of numerically simulated data, and the optimal design values under various joint return periods are derived using the non-linear programming method.
Clare Lewis, Tim Smyth, David Williams, Jess Neumann, and Hannah Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2531–2546, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2531-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2531-2023, 2023
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Meteotsunami are globally occurring water waves initiated by atmospheric disturbances. Previous research has suggested that in the UK, meteotsunami are a rare phenomenon and tend to occur in the summer months. This article presents a revised and updated catalogue of 98 meteotsunami that occurred between 1750 and 2022. Results also demonstrate a larger percentage of winter events and a geographical pattern highlighting the
hotspotregions that experience these events.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, Robert J. Nicholls, and Nadia Bloemendaal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2475–2504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, 2023
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We used a novel database of simulated tropical cyclone tracks to explore whether typhoon-induced storm surges present a future flood risk to low-lying coastal communities around the South China Sea. We found that future climate change is likely to change tropical cyclone behaviour to an extent that this increases the severity and frequency of storm surges to Vietnam, southern China, and Thailand. Consequently, coastal flood defences need to be reviewed for resilience against this future hazard.
Sang-Guk Yum, Moon-Soo Song, and Manik Das Adhikari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2449–2474, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2449-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2449-2023, 2023
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This study performed analysis on typhoon-induced coastal morphodynamics for the Mokpo coast. Wetland vegetation was severely impacted by Typhoon Soulik, with 87.35 % of shoreline transects experiencing seaward migration. This result highlights the fact that sediment resuspension controls the land alteration process over the typhoon period. The land accretion process dominated during the pre- to post-typhoon periods.
Olle Räty, Marko Laine, Ulpu Leijala, Jani Särkkä, and Milla M. Johansson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2403–2418, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2403-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2403-2023, 2023
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We studied annual maximum sea levels in the Finnish coastal region. Our aim was to better quantify the uncertainty in them compared to previous studies. Using four statistical models, we found out that hierarchical models, which shared information on sea-level extremes across Finnish tide gauges, had lower uncertainty in their results in comparison with tide-gauge-specific fits. These models also suggested that the shape of the distribution for extreme sea levels is similar on the Finnish coast.
Christian Ferrarin, Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Marco Bajo, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Elenio Avolio, Diego S. Carrió, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Claudio Sanchez, Platon Patlakas, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2273–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, 2023
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The combined use of meteorological and ocean models enabled the analysis of extreme sea conditions driven by Medicane Ianos, which hit the western coast of Greece on 18 September 2020, flooding and damaging the coast. The large spread associated with the ensemble highlighted the high model uncertainty in simulating such an extreme weather event. The different simulations have been used for outlining hazard scenarios that represent a fundamental component of the coastal risk assessment.
Charline Dalinghaus, Giovanni Coco, and Pablo Higuera
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2157–2169, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2157-2023, 2023
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Wave setup is a critical component of coastal flooding. Consequently, understanding and being able to predict wave setup is vital to protect coastal resources and the population living near the shore. Here, we applied machine learning to improve the accuracy of present predictors of wave setup. The results show that the new predictors outperform existing formulas demonstrating the capability of machine learning models to provide a physically sound description of wave setup.
Ina Teutsch, Markus Brühl, Ralf Weisse, and Sander Wahls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2053–2073, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2053-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2053-2023, 2023
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Rogue waves exceed twice the significant wave height. They occur more often than expected in the shallow waters off Norderney. When applying a nonlinear Fourier transform for the Korteweg–de Vries equation to wave data from Norderney, we found differences in the soliton spectra of time series with and without rogue waves. A strongly outstanding soliton in the spectrum indicated an enhanced probability for rogue waves. We could attribute spectral solitons to the measured rogue waves.
Philipp Heinrich, Stefan Hagemann, Ralf Weisse, Corinna Schrum, Ute Daewel, and Lidia Gaslikova
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1967–1985, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1967-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1967-2023, 2023
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High seawater levels co-occurring with high river discharges have the potential to cause destructive flooding. For the past decades, the number of such compound events was larger than expected by pure chance for most of the west-facing coasts in Europe. Additionally rivers with smaller catchments showed higher numbers. In most cases, such events were associated with a large-scale weather pattern characterized by westerly winds and strong rainfall.
Alexander Böhme, Birgit Gerkensmeier, Benedikt Bratz, Clemens Krautwald, Olaf Müller, Nils Goseberg, and Gabriele Gönnert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1947–1966, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1947-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1947-2023, 2023
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External surges in the North Sea are caused by low-pressure cells travelling over the northeast Atlantic. They influence extreme water levels on the German coast and have to be considered in the design process of coastal defence structures. This study collects data about external surges from 1995–2020 and analyses their causes, behaviours and potential trends. External surges often occur less than 72 h apart, enabling a single storm surge to be influenced by more than one external surge.
Kenta Tozato, Shuji Moriguchi, Shinsuke Takase, Yu Otake, Michael R. Motley, Anawat Suppasri, and Kenjiro Terada
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1891–1909, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1891-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1891-2023, 2023
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This study presents a framework that efficiently investigates the optimal placement of facilities probabilistically based on advanced numerical simulation. Surrogate models for the numerical simulation are constructed using a mode decomposition technique. Monte Carlo simulations using the surrogate models are performed to evaluate failure probabilities. Using the results of the Monte Carlo simulations and the genetic algorithm, optimal placements can be investigated probabilistically.
Job C. M. Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Hans de Moel, Philip J. Ward, Dirk Eilander, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1847–1862, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023, 2023
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Coastal flooding is driven by storm surges and high tides and can be devastating. To gain an understanding of the threat posed by coastal flooding and to identify areas that are especially at risk, now and in the future, it is crucial to accurately model coastal inundation and assess the coastal flood hazard. Here, we present a global dataset with hydrographs that represent the typical evolution of an extreme sea level. These can be used to model coastal inundation more accurately.
Elin Andrée, Jian Su, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Martin Drews, Martin Stendel, and Kristine Skovgaard Madsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1817–1834, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1817-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1817-2023, 2023
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When natural processes interact, they may compound each other. The combined effect can amplify extreme sea levels, such as when a storm occurs at a time when the water level is already higher than usual. We used numerical modelling of a record-breaking storm surge in 1872 to show that other prior sea-level conditions could have further worsened the outcome. Our research highlights the need to consider the physical context of extreme sea levels in measures to reduce coastal flood risk.
Ekaterina Didenkulova, Ira Didenkulova, and Igor Medvedev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1653–1663, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1653-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1653-2023, 2023
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The paper is dedicated to freak wave accidents which happened in the world ocean in 2005–2021 and that were described in mass media sources. The database accounts for 429 events, all of which resulted in ship or coastal and offshore structure damage and/or human losses. In agreement with each freak wave event, we put background wave and wind conditions extracted from the climate reanalysis ERA5. We analyse their statistics and discuss the favourable conditions for freak wave occurrence.
Havu Pellikka, Milla M. Johansson, Maaria Nordman, and Kimmo Ruosteenoja
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1613–1630, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1613-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1613-2023, 2023
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We explore the rate of past and future sea level rise at the Finnish coast, northeastern Baltic Sea, in 1901–2100. For this analysis, we use tide gauge observations, modelling results, and a probabilistic method to combine information from several sea level rise projections. We provide projections of local mean sea level by 2100 as probability distributions. The results can be used in adaptation planning in various sectors with different risk tolerance, e.g. land use planning or nuclear safety.
Carlos Corela, Afonso Loureiro, José Luis Duarte, Luis Matias, Tiago Rebelo, and Tiago Bartolomeu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1433–1451, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1433-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1433-2023, 2023
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We show that ocean-bottom seismometers are controlled by bottom currents, but these are not always a function of the tidal forcing. Instead we suggest that the ocean bottom has a flow regime resulting from two possible contributions: the permanent low-frequency bottom current and the tidal current along the full tidal cycle, between neap and spring tides. In the short-period noise band the ocean current generates harmonic tremors that corrupt the dataset records.
Chen Chen, Charles Koll, Haizhong Wang, and Michael K. Lindell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 733–749, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-733-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-733-2023, 2023
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This paper uses empirical-data-based simulation to analyze how to evacuate efficiently from disasters. We find that departure delay time and evacuation decision have significant impacts on evacuation results. Evacuation results are more sensitive to walking speed, departure delay time, evacuation participation, and destinations than to other variables. This model can help authorities to prioritize resources for hazard education, community disaster preparedness, and resilience plans.
Ariadna Martín, Angel Amores, Alejandro Orfila, Tim Toomey, and Marta Marcos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 587–600, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-587-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-587-2023, 2023
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Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the potentially most hazardous phenomena affecting the coasts of the Caribbean Sea. This work simulates the coastal hazards in terms of sea surface elevation and waves that originate through the passage of these events. A set of 1000 TCs have been simulated, obtained from a set of synthetic cyclones that are consistent with present-day climate. Given the large number of hurricanes used, robust values of extreme sea levels and waves are computed along the coasts.
An-Chi Cheng, Anawat Suppasri, Kwanchai Pakoksung, and Fumihiko Imamura
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 447–479, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-447-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-447-2023, 2023
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Consecutive earthquakes occurred offshore of southern Taiwan on 26 December 2006. This event revealed unusual tsunami generation and propagation, as well as unexpected consequences for the southern Taiwanese coast (i.e., amplified waves and prolonged durations). This study aims to elucidate the source characteristics of the 2006 tsunami and the important behaviors responsible for tsunami hazards in Taiwan such as wave trapping and shelf resonance.
Jean Roger, Bernard Pelletier, Aditya Gusman, William Power, Xiaoming Wang, David Burbidge, and Maxime Duphil
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 393–414, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-393-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-393-2023, 2023
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On 10 February 2021 a magnitude 7.7 earthquake occurring at the southernmost part of the Vanuatu subduction zone triggered a regional tsunami that was recorded on many coastal gauges and DART stations of the south-west Pacific region. Beginning with a review of the tectonic setup and its implication in terms of tsunami generation in the region, this study aims to show our ability to reproduce a small tsunami with different types of rupture models and to discuss a larger magnitude 8.2 scenario.
Kathrin Wahle, Emil V. Stanev, and Joanna Staneva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 415–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-415-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-415-2023, 2023
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Knowledge of what causes maximum water levels is often key in coastal management. Processes, such as storm surge and atmospheric forcing, alter the predicted tide. Whilst most of these processes are modeled in present-day ocean forecasting, there is still a need for a better understanding of situations where modeled and observed water levels deviate from each other. Here, we will use machine learning to detect such anomalies within a network of sea-level observations in the North Sea.
Chuan Li, H. Tuba Özkan-Haller, Gabriel García Medina, Robert A. Holman, Peter Ruggiero, Treena M. Jensen, David B. Elson, and William R. Schneider
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 107–126, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-107-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-107-2023, 2023
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In this work, we examine a set of observed extreme, non-earthquake-related and non-landslide-related wave runup events. Runup events with similar characteristics have previously been attributed to trapped waves, atmospheric disturbances, and abrupt breaking of long waves. However, we find that none of these mechanisms were likely at work in the observations we examined. We show that instead, these runup events were more likely due to energetic growth of bound infragravity waves.
Shan Liu, Xianwu Shi, Qiang Liu, Jun Tan, Yuxi Sun, Qingrong Liu, and Haoshuang Guo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 127–138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-127-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-127-2023, 2023
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This study proposes a quantitative method for the determination of warning water levels. The proposed method is a multidimensional scale, centered on the consideration of various factors that characterize various coastlines. The implications of our study are not only scientific, as we provide a method for water level determination that is rooted in the scientific method (and reproducible across various contexts beyond China), but they are also deeply practical.
Jaap H. Nienhuis, Jana R. Cox, Joey O'Dell, Douglas A. Edmonds, and Paolo Scussolini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4087–4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4087-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4087-2022, 2022
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Humans build levees to protect themselves against floods. We need to know where they are to correctly predict flooding, for example from sea level rise. Here we have looked through documents to find levees, and checked that they exist using satellite imagery. We developed a global levee map, available at www.opendelve.eu, and we found that 24 % of people in deltas are protected by levees.
Alec Torres-Freyermuth, Gabriela Medellín, Jorge A. Kurczyn, Roger Pacheco-Castro, Jaime Arriaga, Christian M. Appendini, María Eugenia Allende-Arandía, Juan A. Gómez, Gemma L. Franklin, and Jorge Zavala-Hidalgo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4063–4085, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4063-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4063-2022, 2022
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Barrier islands in tropical regions are prone to coastal flooding and erosion during hurricane events. The Yucatán coast was impacted by hurricanes Gamma and Delta. Inner shelf, coastal, and inland observations were acquired. Beach morphology changes show alongshore gradients. Flooding occurred on the back barrier due to heavy inland rain and the coastal aquifer's confinement. Modeling systems failed to reproduce the coastal hydrodynamic response due to uncertainties in the boundary conditions.
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Short summary
Extreme-event analysis is widely used to provide information for the design of coastal protection structures. Non-stationarity due to sea level rise can affect such estimates. Using different methods on a long time series of sea level data, we show that estimates of the magnitude of extreme events in the future can be inexact due to relative sea level rise. Thus, considering non-stationarity is important when analyzing extreme-sea-level events.
Extreme-event analysis is widely used to provide information for the design of coastal...
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