Articles | Volume 22, issue 11
Research article
14 Nov 2022
Research article |  | 14 Nov 2022

Importance of non-stationary analysis for assessing extreme sea levels under sea level rise

Damiano Baldan, Elisa Coraci, Franco Crosato, Maurizio Ferla, Andrea Bonometto, and Sara Morucci

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Cited articles

Agilan, V., Umamahesh, N. V., and Mujumdar, P. P.: Influence of threshold selection in modeling peaks over threshold based nonstationary extreme rainfall series, J. Hydrol., 593, 125625,, 2021. 
Arns, A., Wahl, T., Dangendorf, S., and Jensen, J.: The impact of sea level rise on storm surge water levels in the northern part of the German Bight, Coast. Eng., 96, 118–131,, 2015.  
Arns, A., Dangendorf, S., Jensen, J., Talke, S., Bender, J., and Pattiaratchi, C.: Sea-level rise induced amplification of coastal protection design heights, Sci. Rep.-UK, 7, 1–9,, 2017. 
Baranes, H. E., Woodruff, J. D., Talke, S. A., Kopp, R. E., Ray, R. D., and DeConto, R. M.: Tidally driven interannual variation in extreme sea level frequencies in the Gulf of Maine, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 125, e2020JC016291,, 2020. 
Batstone, C., Lawless, M., Tawn, J., Horsburgh, K., Blackman, D., McMillan, A., Worth, D., Laeger, S., and Hunt, T.: A UK best-practice approach for extreme sea-level analysis along complex topographic coastlines, Ocean Eng., 71, 28–39,, 2013. 
Short summary
Extreme-event analysis is widely used to provide information for the design of coastal protection structures. Non-stationarity due to sea level rise can affect such estimates. Using different methods on a long time series of sea level data, we show that estimates of the magnitude of extreme events in the future can be inexact due to relative sea level rise. Thus, considering non-stationarity is important when analyzing extreme-sea-level events.
Final-revised paper