Articles | Volume 22, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3663-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3663-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
14 Nov 2022
Research article |
| 14 Nov 2022
| 14 Nov 2022
Importance of non-stationary analysis for assessing extreme sea levels under sea level rise
Damiano Baldan
Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research, ISPRA, Venice, Italy
Elisa Coraci
Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research, ISPRA, Venice, Italy
Franco Crosato
Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research, ISPRA, Venice, Italy
Maurizio Ferla
Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research, ISPRA, Venice, Italy
Andrea Bonometto
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research, ISPRA, Venice, Italy
Sara Morucci
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research, ISPRA, Venice, Italy
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Cited
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Una metodología de diseño de infraestructura costera considerando cambio climático P. Winckler et al. https://doi.org/10.21703/0718-2813.2024.36.2998
- Statistical Modeling of the Ocean Environment E. Vanem et al. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-statistics-042424-115755
- Compounded influence of extreme coastal water level and subsidence on coastal flooding from satellite showcased at Saint-Louis (Senegal, West Africa) C. Cissé et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101597
- Dynamical diagnostic of extreme events in Venice lagoon and their mitigation with the MoSE T. Alberti et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-36816-8
- Inherent non-stationarity in the GEV distribution for extreme sea levels: Implications for coastal vulnerability in the Baltic Sea K. Viigand et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2025.122681
- Projecting extreme sea levels for Northwest Ireland under future climate scenarios T. Ahmed et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2026.1745732
- Assessment and future projections of storm surge using CMIP6 models in the Indo-Pacific region K. Saha et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102560
- Building nonstationary extreme value model using L-moments Y. Shin et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42952-025-00325-3
- Mathematical Models for Predicting Extreme Temperature Events and Minimizing Their Consequences A. Fedosieienko https://doi.org/10.23939/sisn2026.19.307
- Characterization of significant wave height trends in the South China Sea based on wave hindcast results: A non-stationary extreme value approach T. Bagnasco et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apor.2026.105153
- Storm-permitting climate modeling highlights storm frequency’s role in future extreme sea level changes along US East and Gulf coasts G. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01274-8
- Nonstationary coastal flood hazard analysis Y. Jia & M. Sasani https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06447-x
- Regional-scale coastal hazard modelling using a univariate framework for extreme total water levels including sea-level rise: a case study in Portugal J. Carneiro Barros et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106272
- Compound coastal flooding in high-latitude Baltic Sea estuaries of Finland: Patterns, seasonality and trends T. Nylén & H. Tolvanen https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103551
- Drivers and predictability of extreme still water level trends and interannual variability along the coast of Australia across different time scales J. O'Grady et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2025.104725
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Una metodología de diseño de infraestructura costera considerando cambio climático P. Winckler et al. https://doi.org/10.21703/0718-2813.2024.36.2998
- Statistical Modeling of the Ocean Environment E. Vanem et al. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-statistics-042424-115755
- Compounded influence of extreme coastal water level and subsidence on coastal flooding from satellite showcased at Saint-Louis (Senegal, West Africa) C. Cissé et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101597
- Dynamical diagnostic of extreme events in Venice lagoon and their mitigation with the MoSE T. Alberti et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-36816-8
- Inherent non-stationarity in the GEV distribution for extreme sea levels: Implications for coastal vulnerability in the Baltic Sea K. Viigand et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2025.122681
- Projecting extreme sea levels for Northwest Ireland under future climate scenarios T. Ahmed et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2026.1745732
- Assessment and future projections of storm surge using CMIP6 models in the Indo-Pacific region K. Saha et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102560
- Building nonstationary extreme value model using L-moments Y. Shin et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42952-025-00325-3
- Mathematical Models for Predicting Extreme Temperature Events and Minimizing Their Consequences A. Fedosieienko https://doi.org/10.23939/sisn2026.19.307
- Characterization of significant wave height trends in the South China Sea based on wave hindcast results: A non-stationary extreme value approach T. Bagnasco et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apor.2026.105153
- Storm-permitting climate modeling highlights storm frequency’s role in future extreme sea level changes along US East and Gulf coasts G. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01274-8
- Nonstationary coastal flood hazard analysis Y. Jia & M. Sasani https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06447-x
- Regional-scale coastal hazard modelling using a univariate framework for extreme total water levels including sea-level rise: a case study in Portugal J. Carneiro Barros et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106272
- Compound coastal flooding in high-latitude Baltic Sea estuaries of Finland: Patterns, seasonality and trends T. Nylén & H. Tolvanen https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103551
- Drivers and predictability of extreme still water level trends and interannual variability along the coast of Australia across different time scales J. O'Grady et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2025.104725
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 08 Jul 2026
Short summary
Extreme-event analysis is widely used to provide information for the design of coastal protection structures. Non-stationarity due to sea level rise can affect such estimates. Using different methods on a long time series of sea level data, we show that estimates of the magnitude of extreme events in the future can be inexact due to relative sea level rise. Thus, considering non-stationarity is important when analyzing extreme-sea-level events.
Extreme-event analysis is widely used to provide information for the design of coastal...
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