Importance of non-stationary analysis for assessing  extreme sea levels under sea level rise

Baldan, Damiano; Coraci, Elisa; Crosato, Franco; Ferla, Maurizio; Bonometto, Andrea; Morucci, Sara

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3663-2022

Articles | Volume 22, issue 11

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3663–3677, 2022

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3663-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3663–3677, 2022

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3663-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 22, issue 11

Research article

14 Nov 2022

Research article | 14 Nov 2022

Importance of non-stationary analysis for assessing extreme sea levels under sea level rise

Damiano Baldan et al.

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3663-2022-supplement

Data sets

Sea level station monitoring facility VLIZ - Flanders Marine Institute and IOC - Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission https://doi.org/10.14284/482

Meteo-marine data for the North Adriatic and the Venice Lagoon ISPRA - Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Reaserch https://www.venezia.isprambiente.it/rete-meteo-mareografica

IPCC AR6 Sea-Level Rise Projections, Version 20210809 G. G. Garner, T. Hermans, R. E. Kopp, A. B. A. Slangen, T. L. Edwards, A. Levermann, S. Nowikci, M. D. Palmer, C. Smith, B. Fox-Kemper, H. T. Hewitt, C. Xiao, G. Aðalgeirsdóttir, S. S. Drijfhout, T. L. Edwards, N. R. Golledge, M. Hemer, R. E. Kopp, G. Krinner, A. Mix, D. Notz, S. Nowicki, I. S. Nurhati, L. Ruiz, J-B. Sallée, Y. Yu, L. Hua, T. Palmer, and B. Pearson https://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/announcements/2021-08-09-Sea-level-projections-from-the-IPCC-6th-Assessment-Report

Short summary

Extreme-event analysis is widely used to provide information for the design of coastal protection structures. Non-stationarity due to sea level rise can affect such estimates. Using different methods on a long time series of sea level data, we show that estimates of the magnitude of extreme events in the future can be inexact due to relative sea level rise. Thus, considering non-stationarity is important when analyzing extreme-sea-level events.