Articles | Volume 22, issue 11
Research article
14 Nov 2022
Research article |  | 14 Nov 2022

Importance of non-stationary analysis for assessing extreme sea levels under sea level rise

Damiano Baldan, Elisa Coraci, Franco Crosato, Maurizio Ferla, Andrea Bonometto, and Sara Morucci

Data sets

Sea level station monitoring facility VLIZ - Flanders Marine Institute and IOC - Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission

Meteo-marine data for the North Adriatic and the Venice Lagoon ISPRA - Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Reaserch

IPCC AR6 Sea-Level Rise Projections, Version 20210809 G. G. Garner, T. Hermans, R. E. Kopp, A. B. A. Slangen, T. L. Edwards, A. Levermann, S. Nowikci, M. D. Palmer, C. Smith, B. Fox-Kemper, H. T. Hewitt, C. Xiao, G. Aðalgeirsdóttir, S. S. Drijfhout, T. L. Edwards, N. R. Golledge, M. Hemer, R. E. Kopp, G. Krinner, A. Mix, D. Notz, S. Nowicki, I. S. Nurhati, L. Ruiz, J-B. Sallée, Y. Yu, L. Hua, T. Palmer, and B. Pearson

Short summary
Extreme-event analysis is widely used to provide information for the design of coastal protection structures. Non-stationarity due to sea level rise can affect such estimates. Using different methods on a long time series of sea level data, we show that estimates of the magnitude of extreme events in the future can be inexact due to relative sea level rise. Thus, considering non-stationarity is important when analyzing extreme-sea-level events.
Final-revised paper