Articles | Volume 22, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2963-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2963-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
08 Sep 2022
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 08 Sep 2022
| 08 Sep 2022
Reliability of flood marks and practical relevance for flood hazard assessment in southwestern Germany
Annette Sophie Bösmeier
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Chair of Geomorphology and Recent Morphodynamics, University of
Freiburg, 79085 Freiburg, Germany
Iso Himmelsbach
Independent researcher, Gießenstraße 11, 79104 Freiburg,
Germany
Stefan Seeger
Chair of Hydrology, University of Freiburg, 79098 Freiburg, Germany
Related authors
Rüdiger Glaser, Iso Himmelsbach, and Annette Bösmeier
Clim. Past, 13, 1573–1592, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1573-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1573-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the extent to which climate, harvest and prices influenced the major migration waves from southwest Germany into North America during the 19th century, a century of dramatic climatic and societal changes.
Barbara Herbstritt, Benjamin Gralher, Stefan Seeger, Michael Rinderer, and Markus Weiler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3701–3718, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3701-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3701-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a method to collect water vapor samples into bags in the field without an in-field analyser, followed by isotope analysis in the lab. This new method resolves even fine-scaled natural isotope variations. It combines low-cost and lightweight components for maximum spatial and temporal flexibility regarding environmental setups. Hence, it allows for sampling even in terrains that are rather difficult to access, enabling future extended isotope datasets in soil sciences and ecohydrology.
Stefan Seeger and Markus Weiler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3393–3404, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3393-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3393-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a low-budget method to quantify the radial distribution of water transport velocities within trees at a high spatial resolution. We observed a wide spread of water transport velocities within a tree stem section, which were on average 3 times faster than the flux velocity. The distribution of transport velocities has implications for studies that use water isotopic signatures to study root water uptake and usually assume uniform or even implicitly infinite velocities.
David Mennekes, Michael Rinderer, Stefan Seeger, and Natalie Orlowski
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4513–4530, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4513-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4513-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In situ stable water isotope measurements are a recently developed method to measure water movement from the soil through the plant to the atmosphere in high resolution and precision. Here, we present important advantages of the new method in comparison to commonly used measurement methods in an experimental setup. Overall, this method can help to answer research questions such as plant responses to climate change with potentially shifting water availability or temperatures.
Stefan Seeger and Markus Weiler
Biogeosciences, 18, 4603–4627, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4603-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4603-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a setup for fully automated in situ measurements of stable water isotopes in soil and the stems of fully grown trees. We used this setup in a 12-week field campaign to monitor the propagation of a labelling pulse from the soil up to a stem height of 8 m.
We could observe trees shifting their main water uptake depths multiple times, depending on water availability.
The gained knowledge about the temporal dynamics can help to improve water uptake models and future study designs.
Maria Staudinger, Stefan Seeger, Barbara Herbstritt, Michael Stoelzle, Jan Seibert, Kerstin Stahl, and Markus Weiler
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3057–3066, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3057-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3057-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The data set CH-IRP provides isotope composition in precipitation and streamflow from 23 Swiss catchments, being unique regarding its long-term multi-catchment coverage along an alpine–pre-alpine gradient. CH-IRP contains fortnightly time series of stable water isotopes from streamflow grab samples complemented by time series in precipitation. Sampling conditions, catchment and climate information, lab standards and errors are provided together with areal precipitation and catchment boundaries.
Jana von Freyberg, Scott T. Allen, Stefan Seeger, Markus Weiler, and James W. Kirchner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3841–3861, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3841-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3841-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We explored how the fraction of streamflow younger than ca. 3 months (Fyw) varies with landscape characteristics and climatic forcing, using an extensive isotope data set from 22 Swiss catchments. Overall, Fyw tends to be larger when catchments are wet and discharge is correspondingly higher, indicating an increase in the proportional contribution of faster flow paths at higher flows. We quantify this
discharge sensitivityof Fyw and relate it to the dominant streamflow-generating mechanisms.
Rüdiger Glaser, Iso Himmelsbach, and Annette Bösmeier
Clim. Past, 13, 1573–1592, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1573-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1573-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the extent to which climate, harvest and prices influenced the major migration waves from southwest Germany into North America during the 19th century, a century of dramatic climatic and societal changes.
S. Seeger and M. Weiler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4751–4771, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4751-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4751-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
Simulating multi-hazard event sets for life cycle consequence analysis
Analysis of the effects of urban micro-scale vulnerabilities on tsunami evacuation using an agent-based model – case study in the city of Iquique, Chile
Factors of influence on flood risk perceptions related to Hurricane Dorian: an assessment of heuristics, time dynamics, and accuracy of risk perceptions
Anticipating a risky future: long short-term memory (LSTM) models for spatiotemporal extrapolation of population data in areas prone to earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
A new regionally consistent exposure database for Central Asia: population and residential buildings
Study on seismic risk assessment model of water supply systems in mainland China
Mapping current and future flood exposure using a 5 m flood model and climate change projections
Brief communication: On the environmental impacts of the 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna (Italy)
A regional-scale approach to assessing non-residential building, transportation and cropland exposure in Central Asia
Towards a global impact-based forecasting model for tropical cyclones
Quantitative Study of Storm Surge Risk Assessment in Undeveloped Coastal Area of China Based on Deep Learning and Geographic Information System (GIS) Techniques: A Case Study of Double-Moon Bay Zone
Identifying vulnerable populations in urban society: a case study in a flood-prone district of Wuhan, China
An assessment of potential improvements in social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness from digital technologies
Spatial accessibility of emergency medical services under inclement weather: a case study in Beijing, China
Review article: Current approaches and critical issues in multi-risk recovery planning of urban areas exposed to natural hazards
Estimating emergency costs for earthquakes and floods in Central Asia based on modelled losses
Compound flood impacts from Hurricane Sandy on New York City in climate-driven storylines
Risk reduction through managed retreat? Investigating enabling conditions and assessing resettlement effects on community resilience in Metro Manila
Regional-scale landslide risk assessment in Central Asia
Cost estimation for the monitoring instrumentation of landslide early warning systems
The role of response efficacy and self-efficacy in disaster preparedness actions for vulnerable households
Scientists as storytellers: the explanatory power of stories told about environmental crises
Back analysis of a building collapse under snow and rain loads in a Mediterranean area
Assessment of building damage and risk under extreme flood scenarios in Shanghai
Brief communication: Storm Daniel Flood Impact in Greece 2023: Mapping Crop and Livestock Exposure from SAR
Micro business participation in collective flood adaptation. Lessons from scenario-based analysis in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Mangrove ecosystem properties regulate high water levels in a river delta
Analysis of flood warning and evacuation efficiency by comparing damage and life-loss estimates with real consequences related to the São Francisco tailings dam failure in Brazil
Brief communication: lessons learnt and experienced gained from building up a global survey on societal resilience to droughts
Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas: A blueprint for regional multisectoral drought impact assessment
Regional seismic risk assessment based on ground conditions in Uzbekistan
Criteria-based visualization design for hazard maps
Low-regret climate change adaptation in coastal megacities – evaluating large-scale flood protection and small-scale rainwater detention measures for Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Modeling compound flood risk and risk reduction using a globally applicable framework: a pilot in the Sofala province of Mozambique
Scenario-based multi-risk assessment from existing single-hazard vulnerability models. An application to consecutive earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
Using machine learning algorithms to identify predictors of social vulnerability in the event of a hazard: Istanbul case study
Large-scale risk assessment on snow avalanche hazard in alpine regions
Unveiling Transboundary Challenges in The Ciliwung River Flood Management
Probabilistic and machine learning methods for uncertainty quantification in power outage prediction due to extreme events
Public intention to participate in sustainable geohazard mitigation: an empirical study based on an extended theory of planned behavior
An assessment of short–medium-term interventions using CAESAR-Lisflood in a post-earthquake mountainous area
Review article: Design and evaluation of weather index insurance for multi-hazard resilience and food insecurity
Design and application of a multi-hazard risk rapid assessment questionnaire for hill communities in the Indian Himalayan region
Identifying the drivers of private flood precautionary measures in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Performance of the flood warning system in Germany in July 2021 – insights from affected residents
Differences in volcanic risk perception among Goma's population before the Nyiragongo eruption of May 2021, Virunga volcanic province (DR Congo)
Empirical tsunami fragility modelling for hierarchical damage levels
Quantifying the potential benefits of risk-mitigation strategies on future flood losses in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal
Review article: Potential of nature-based solutions to mitigate hydro-meteorological risks in sub-Saharan Africa
Invited perspectives: An insurer's perspective on the knowns and unknowns in natural hazard risk modelling
Leandro Iannacone, Kenneth Otárola, Roberto Gentile, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1721–1740, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a review of the available classifications for hazard interactions in a multi-hazard context, and it incorporates such classifications from a modeling perspective. The outcome is a sequential Monte Carlo approach enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard event sets (i.e., sequences of events throughout the life cycle). These event sets can then be integrated into frameworks for the quantification of consequences for the purposes of life cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis.
Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Gonzalo Álvarez, Jorge León, Alejandro Urrutia, and Sebastián Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1485–1500, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study carries out a detailed analysis of possible tsunami evacuation scenarios in the city of Iquique in Chile. Evacuation modeling and tsunami modeling are integrated, allowing for an estimation of the potential number of people that the inundation may reach under different scenarios by emulating the dynamics and behavior of the population and their decision-making regarding the starting time of the evacuation.
Laurine A. de Wolf, Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje M. Mol, and Jeffrey Czajkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1303–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An understanding of flood risk perceptions may aid in improving flood risk communication. We conducted a survey among 871 coastal residents in Florida who were threatened to be flooded by Hurricane Dorian. Part of the original sample was resurveyed after Dorian failed to make landfall to investigate changes in risk perception. We find a strong influence of previous flood experience and social norms on flood risk perceptions. Furthermore, flood risk perceptions declined after the near-miss event.
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We establish a model of future geospatial population distributions to quantify the number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru, for the year 2035. Areas of high earthquake intensity will experience a population growth of almost 30 %. The population in the tsunami inundation area is estimated to grow by more than 60 %. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policymakers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Faga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 929–945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is highly exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, floods and landslides, for which risk reduction strategies are currently under development. We provide a regional-scale database of assets at risk, including population and residential buildings, based on existing information and recent data collected for each Central Asian country. The population and number of buildings are also estimated for the year 2080 to support the definition of disaster risk reduction strategies.
Tianyang Yu, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, and Zhi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 803–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A basic database for seismic risk assessment of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China is established. The parameters of the seismic risk curves of 720 cities are calculated. The seismic fragility curves of various facilities in the water supply system are given based on the logarithmic normal distribution model. The expected seismic loss and the expected loss rate index of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China in the medium and long term are given.
Connor Darlington, Jonathan Raikes, Daniel Henstra, Jason Thistlethwaite, and Emma K. Raven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 699–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of climate change on local floods require precise maps that clearly demarcate changes to flood exposure; however, most maps lack important considerations that reduce their utility in policy and decision-making. This article presents a new approach to identifying current and projected flood exposure using a 5 m model. The results highlight advancements in the mapping of flood exposure with implications for flood risk management.
Chiara Arrighi and Alessio Domeneghetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 673–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this communication, we reflect on environmental flood impacts by analysing the reported environmental consequences of the 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods. The most frequently reported damage involves water resources and water-related ecosystems. Indirect effects in time and space, intrinsic recovery capacity, cascade impacts on socio-economic systems, and the lack of established monitoring activities appear to be the most challenging aspects for future research.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Zukhritdin Ergashev, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Fagà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 355–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to multiple hazards such as floods, landslides and earthquakes, which can affect a wide range of assets at risk. We develop the first regionally consistent database of assets at risk for non-residential buildings, transportation and croplands in Central Asia. The database combines global and regional data sources and country-based information and supports the development of regional-scale disaster risk reduction strategies for the Central Asia region.
Mersedeh Kooshki Forooshani, Marc van den Homberg, Kyriaki Kalimeri, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Yelena Mejova, Leonardo Milano, Pauline Ndirangu, Daniela Paolotti, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Monica L. Turner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We improve an existing impact forecasting model for the Philippines by transforming the target variable (percentage of damaged houses) to a fine grid, using only features which are globally available. We show that our two-stage model conserves the performance of the original and even has the potential to introduce savings in anticipatory action resources. Such model generalizability is important in increasing the applicability of such tools around the world.
Lichen Yu, Shining Huang, Hao Qin, Wei Wei, and Lin Mu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-199, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-199, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a quantitative storm surge risk assessment method for data-deficient regions. A coupled model is used to simulate five storm surge scenarios. Deep learning is used to extract building footprints. Economic losses are calculated by combining the adjusted depth-damage functions with inundation simulation results. Zonation maps illustrate risk levels based on economic losses, aiding in disaster prevention measures to reduce coastal area losses.
Jia Xu, Makoto Takahashi, and Weifu Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 179–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Through the development of micro-individual social vulnerability indicators and cluster analysis, this study assessed the level of social vulnerability of 599 residents from 11 communities in the Hongshan District of Wuhan. The findings reveal three levels of social vulnerability: high, medium, and low. Quantitative assessments offer specific comparisons between distinct units, and the results indicate that different types of communities have significant differences in social vulnerability.
Tommaso Piseddu, Mathilda Englund, and Karina Barquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Contributions to social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness constitute the parameters to test applications in disaster risk management. We propose an evaluation of four of these: mobile positioning data, social media crowdsourcing, drones, and satellite imaging. The analysis grants the opportunity to investigate how different methods to evaluate surveys' results may influence final preferences. We find that the different assumptions on which these methods rely deliver diverging results.
Yuting Zhang, Kai Liu, Xiaoyong Ni, Ming Wang, Jianchun Zheng, Mengting Liu, and Dapeng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This article is aimed at developing a method to quantify the influence of inclement weather on the accessibility of emergency medical services (EMSs) in Beijing, China, and identifying the vulnerable areas that could not get timely EMSs under inclement weather. We found that inclement weather could reduce the accessibility of EMSs by up to 40%. Furthermore, towns with lower baseline EMSs accessibility are more vulnerable when inclement weather occurs.
Soheil Mohammadi, Silvia De Angeli, Giorgio Boni, Francesca Pirlone, and Serena Cattari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 79–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper critically reviews disaster recovery literature from a multi-risk perspective. Identified key challenges encompass the lack of approaches integrating physical reconstruction and socio-economic recovery, the neglect of multi-risk interactions, the limited exploration of recovery from a pre-disaster planning perspective, and the low consideration of disaster recovery as a non-linear process in which communities need change over time.
Emilio Berny, Carlos Avelar, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, and Mario Ordaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a methodology to estimate the total emergency costs based on modelled damages for earthquakes and floods, together with the demographic and building characteristics of the study area. The methodology has been applied in five countries in central Asia, the first time that these estimates are made available for the study area and are intended to be useful for regional and local stakeholders and decision makers.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Irene Benito Lazaro, Linda van Garderen, Karin van der Wiel, Dewi Le Bars, Elco Koks, and Bart van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 29–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We explore how Hurricane Sandy (2012) could flood New York City under different scenarios, including climate change and internal variability. We find that sea level rise can quadruple coastal flood volumes, while changes in Sandy's landfall location can double flood volumes. Our results show the need for diverse scenarios that include climate change and internal variability and for integrating climate information into a modelling framework, offering insights for high-impact event assessments.
Hannes Lauer, Carmeli Marie C. Chaves, Evelyn Lorenzo, Sonia Islam, and Jörn Birkmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-50, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-50, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In many urban areas, people face high exposure to hazards. Resettling them to safer locations becomes a major strategy, not least because of climate change. This paper dives into the success factors of government-led resettlement in Manila and finds surprising results, which challenge the usual narrative and fuel the conversation on resettlement as an adaptation strategy. Other as expected, the location – whether urban or rural – of the new home is less important as the safety from floods.
Francesco Caleca, Chiara Scaini, William Frodella, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 13–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide risk analysis is a powerful tool because it allows us to identify where physical and economic losses could occur due to a landslide event. The purpose of our work was to provide the first regional-scale analysis of landslide risk for central Asia, and it represents an advanced step in the field of risk analysis for very large areas. Our findings show, per square kilometer, a total risk of about USD 3.9 billion and a mean risk of USD 0.6 million.
Marta Sapena, Moritz Gamperl, Marlene Kühnl, Carolina Garcia-Londoño, John Singer, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3913–3930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new approach for the deployment of landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) is proposed. We combine data-driven landslide susceptibility mapping and population maps to identify exposed locations. We estimate the cost of monitoring sensors and demonstrate that LEWSs could be installed with a budget ranging from EUR 5 to EUR 41 per person in Medellín, Colombia. We provide recommendations for stakeholders and outline the challenges and opportunities for successful LEWS implementation.
Dong Qiu, Binglin Lv, Yuepeng Cui, and Zexiong Zhan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3789–3803, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper divides preparedness behavior into minimal and adequate preparedness. In addition to studying the main factors that promote families' disaster preparedness, we also study the moderating effects of response efficacy and self-efficacy on preparedness actions by vulnerable families. Based on the findings of this study, policymakers can target interventions and programs that can be designed to remedy the current lack of disaster preparedness education for vulnerable families.
Jenni Barclay, Richie Robertson, and M. Teresa Armijos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3603–3615, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stories create avenues for sharing the meanings and social implications of scientific knowledge. We explore their value when told between scientists during a volcanic eruption. They are important vehicles for understanding how risk is generated during volcanic eruptions and create new knowledge about these interactions. Stories explore how risk is negotiated when scientific information is ambiguous or uncertain, identify cause and effect, and rationalize the emotional intensity of a crisis.
Isabelle Ousset, Guillaume Evin, Damien Raynaud, and Thierry Faug
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3509–3523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper deals with an exceptional snow and rain event in a Mediterranean region of France which is usually not prone to heavy snowfall and its consequences on a particular building that collapsed completely. Independent analyses of the meteorological episode are carried out, and the response of the building to different snow and rain loads is confronted to identify the main critical factors that led to the collapse.
Jiachang Tu, Jiahong Wen, Liang Emlyn Yang, Andrea Reimuth, Stephen S. Young, Min Zhang, Luyang Wang, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3247–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper evaluates the flood risk and the resulting patterns in buildings following low-probability, high-impact flood scenarios by a risk analysis chain in Shanghai. The results provide a benchmark and also a clear future for buildings with respect to flood risks in Shanghai. This study links directly to disaster risk management, e.g., the Shanghai Master Plan. We also discussed different potential adaptation options for flood risk management.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Elias Dimitriou, Angeliki Mentzafou, Christina Papadaki, Maria Stoumboudi, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-173, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
~820 km2 of agricultural land is inundated in central Greece due to storm Daniel flood. A detailed analysis revealed that the crop most affected by the flooding was cotton; the inundated area of more than 282 km2 comprised ~30 % of the total area planted with cotton in central Greece. In terms of livestock, we estimated more than 14,000 ornithoids and 21,500 sheep and goats were affected. Consequences for agriculture and animal husbandry in Greece are expected to be severe.
Javier Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, and Matthias Garschagen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2185, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2185, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Micro-businesses, often overlooked in adaptation research, show surprising willingness to contribute to collective adaptation despite limited finances and local support. Based on a study in Ho-Chi-Minh City in Vietnam, approximately 70 % are ready for awareness campaigns, and 39 % would provide financial support if costs were shared. These findings underscore the need for increased involvement of micro-businesses in local adaptation plans to enhance collective adaptive capacity.
Ignace Pelckmans, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Luis E. Dominguez-Granda, Cornelis Slobbe, Stijn Temmerman, and Olivier Gourgue
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3169–3183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mangroves are increasingly recognized as a coastal protection against extreme sea levels. Their effectiveness in doing so, however, is still poorly understood, as mangroves are typically located in tropical countries where data on mangrove vegetation and topography properties are often scarce. Through a modelling study, we identified the degree of channelization and the mangrove forest floor topography as the key properties for regulating high water levels in a tropical delta.
André Felipe Rocha Silva and Julian Cardoso Eleutério
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3095–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work evaluates the application of flood consequence models through their application in a real case related to a tailings dam failure. Furthermore, we simulated the implementation of less efficient alert systems on life-loss alleviation. The results revealed that the models represented the event well and were able to estimate the relevance of implementing efficient alert systems. They highlight that their use may be an important tool for new regulations for dam safety legislation.
Marina Batalini de Macedo, Marcos Roberto Benso, Karina Simone Sass, Adelaide Cassia Nardocci, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Greicelene Jesus da Silva, Pedro Gustavo Câmara da Silva, Abdullah Konak, Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan, and Michael Jacobson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2042, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2042, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
With climate change, societies increasingly need to adapt to deal with more severe droughts and the impacts they can have on food production. To make better adaptation decisions, drought resilience indicators can be used. To build these indicators, surveys with experts can be done. However, designing surveys is a costly process that can influence how experts respond. In this communication, we aim to deal with the challenges encountered in the development of the surveys, to help further research.
Stephen B. Ferencz, Ning Sun, Sean Turner, Brian A. Smith, and Jennie S. Rice
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-149, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-149, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Population growth and economic development, and the potential for more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change pose significant water security challenges. Better understanding the impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid adaptive planning. The 2008 – 2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas, United States is used as a case study to assess impacts and responses to severe drought.
Vakhitkhan Alikhanovich Ismailov, Sharofiddin Ismatullayevich Yodgorov, Akhror Sabriddinovich Khusomiddinov, Eldor Makhmadiyorovich Yadigarov, Bekzod Uktamovich Aktamov, and Shuhrat Avazov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-105, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-105, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
For the basis of seismic risk assessment, maps of seismic intensity increment and an improved map of seismic hazard have been developed, taking into account the engineering-geological conditions of the territory of Uzbekistan and the seismic characteristics of soils. For seismic risk map development, databases were created based on GIS platforms allowing us to systematize and evaluate the regional distribution of information.
Max Schneider, Fabrice Cotton, and Pia-Johanna Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2505–2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hazard maps are fundamental to earthquake risk reduction, but research is missing on how to design them. We review the visualization literature to identify evidence-based criteria for color and classification schemes for hazard maps. We implement these for the German seismic hazard map, focusing on communicating four properties of seismic hazard. Our evaluation finds that the redesigned map successfully communicates seismic hazard in Germany, improving on the baseline map for two key properties.
Leon Scheiber, Christoph Gabriel David, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Jan Visscher, Hong Quan Nguyen, Roxana Leitold, Javier Revilla Diez, and Torsten Schlurmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2333–2347, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Like many other megacities in low-elevation coastal zones, Ho Chi Minh City in southern Vietnam suffers from the convoluting impact of changing environmental stressors and rapid urbanization. This study assesses quantitative hydro-numerical results against the background of the low-regret paradigm for (1) a large-scale flood protection scheme as currently constructed and (2) the widespread implementation of small-scale rainwater detention as envisioned in the Chinese Sponge City Program.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, Willem Ligtvoet, Arno Bouwman, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2251–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a framework for assessing compound flood risk using hydrodynamic, impact, and statistical modeling. A pilot in Mozambique shows the importance of accounting for compound events in risk assessments. We also show how the framework can be used to assess the effectiveness of different risk reduction measures. As the framework is based on global datasets and is largely automated, it can easily be applied in other areas for first-order assessments of compound flood risk.
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Massimiliano Pittore, Nils Brinckmann, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga, Sergio Medina, Nicola Tarque, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2203–2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
Oya Kalaycıoğlu, Serhat Emre Akhanlı, Emin Yahya Menteşe, Mehmet Kalaycıoğlu, and Sibel Kalaycıoğlu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2133–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The associations between household characteristics and hazard-related social vulnerability in Istanbul, Türkiye, were assessed using machine learning techniques. The results indicated that less educated households with no social security and job insecurity that live in squatter houses are at a higher risk of social vulnerability. We present the findings in an open-access R Shiny web application, which can serve as a guidance for identifying the target groups in the interest of risk mitigation.
Gregor Ortner, Michael Bründl, Chahan M. Kropf, Thomas Röösli, Yves Bühler, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2089–2110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new approach to assess avalanche risk on a large scale in mountainous regions. It combines a large-scale avalanche modeling method with a state-of-the-art probabilistic risk tool. Over 40 000 individual avalanches were simulated, and a building dataset with over 13 000 single buildings was investigated. With this new method, risk hotspots can be identified and surveyed. This enables current and future risk analysis to assist decision makers in risk reduction and adaptation.
Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu, Khonsa Indana Zulfa, Dewi Nurhasanah, Richard Haigh, Dilanthi Amaratunga, and In In Wahdiny
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-85, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-85, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Transboundary river management for inter-city or inter province become very critical issue due to the ego sectoral and lack of responsibility sharing. This paper has recognized the most strategic flood risk driver from key stakeholder perspective.
Prateek Arora and Luis Ceferino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1665–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Power outage models can help utilities manage risks for outages from hurricanes. Our article reviews the existing outage models during hurricanes and highlights their strengths and limitations. Existing models can give erroneous estimates with outage predictions larger than the number of customers, can struggle with predictions for catastrophic hurricanes, and do not adequately represent infrastructure failure's uncertainties. We suggest models for the future that can overcome these challenges.
Huige Xing, Ting Que, Yuxin Wu, Shiyu Hu, Haibo Li, Hongyang Li, Martin Skitmore, and Nima Talebian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1529–1547, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1529-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1529-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Disaster risk reduction requires public power. The aim of this study is to investigate the factors influencing the public's intention to participate in disaster risk reduction. An empirical study was conducted using structural equation modeling data analysis methods. The findings show that public attitudes, perceptions of those around them, ability to participate, and sense of participation are important factors.
Di Wang, Ming Wang, Kai Liu, and Jun Xie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1409–1423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The short–medium-term intervention effect on the post-earthquake area was analysed by simulations in different scenarios. The sediment transport patterns varied in different sub-regions, and the relative effectiveness in different scenarios changed over time with a general downward trend, where the steady stage implicated the scenario with more facilities performing better in controlling sediment output. Therefore, the simulation methods could support optimal rehabilitation strategies.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Roberto Fray Silva, Greicelene Jesus Silva, Luis Miguel Castillo Rápalo, Fabricio Alonso Richmond Navarro, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, José Antônio Marengo, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1335–1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article is about how farmers can better protect themselves from disasters like droughts, extreme temperatures, and floods. The authors suggest that one way to do this is by offering insurance contracts that cover these different types of disasters. By having this insurance, farmers can receive financial support and recover more quickly. The article elicits different ideas about how to design this type of insurance and suggests ways to make it better.
Shivani Chouhan and Mahua Mukherjee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1267–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1267-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Himalayas are prone to multi-hazards. To minimise loss, proper planning and execution are necessary. Data collection is the basis of any risk assessment process. This enhanced survey form is easy to understand and pictorial and identifies high-risk components of any building (structural and non-structural) surrounded by multi-hazards. Its results can help to utilise the budget in a prioritised way. A SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities) analysis has been performed.
Thulasi Vishwanath Harish, Nivedita Sairam, Liang Emlyn Yang, Matthias Garschagen, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1125–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal Asian cities are becoming more vulnerable to flooding. In this study we analyse the data collected from flood-prone houses in Ho Chi Minh City to identify what motivates the households to adopt flood precautionary measures. The results revealed that educating the households about the available flood precautionary measures and communicating the flood protection measures taken by the government encourage the households to adopt measures without having to experience multiple flood events.
Annegret H. Thieken, Philip Bubeck, Anna Heidenreich, Jennifer von Keyserlingk, Lisa Dillenardt, and Antje Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 973–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In July 2021 intense rainfall caused devastating floods in western Europe with 184 fatalities in the German federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia (NW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), calling their warning system into question. An online survey revealed that 35 % of respondents from NW and 29 % from RP did not receive any warning. Many of those who were warned did not expect severe flooding, nor did they know how to react. The study provides entry points for improving Germany's warning system.
Blaise Mafuko Nyandwi, Matthieu Kervyn, François Muhashy Habiyaremye, François Kervyn, and Caroline Michellier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 933–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Risk perception involves the processes of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about the uncertain impacts of hazards. It may contribute to improving risk communication and motivating the protective behaviour of the population living near volcanoes. Our work describes the spatial variation and factors influencing volcanic risk perception of 2204 adults of Goma exposed to Nyiragongo. It contributes to providing a case study for risk perception understanding in the Global South.
Fatemeh Jalayer, Hossein Ebrahimian, Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, and Brendon Bradley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 909–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing tsunami fragility and the related uncertainties is crucial in the evaluation of incurred losses. Empirical fragility modelling is based on observed tsunami intensity and damage data. Fragility curves for hierarchical damage levels are distinguished by their laminar shape; that is, the curves should not intersect. However, this condition is not satisfied automatically. We present a workflow for hierarchical fragility modelling, uncertainty propagation and fragility model selection.
Carlos Mesta, Gemma Cremen, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 711–731, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-711-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-711-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Flood risk is expected to increase in many regions worldwide due to rapid urbanization and climate change. The benefits of risk-mitigation measures remain inadequately quantified for potential future events in some multi-hazard-prone areas such as Kathmandu Valley (KV), Nepal, which this paper addresses. The analysis involves modeling two flood occurrence scenarios and using four residential exposure inventories representing current urban system or near-future development trajectories for KV.
Kirk B. Enu, Aude Zingraff-Hamed, Mohammad A. Rahman, Lindsay C. Stringer, and Stephan Pauleit
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 481–505, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-481-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In sub-Saharan Africa, there is reported uptake of at least one nature-based solution (NBS) in 71 % of urban areas in the region for mitigating hydro-meteorological risks. These NBSs are implemented where risks exist but not where they are most severe. With these NBSs providing multiple ecosystem services and four out of every five NBSs creating livelihood opportunities, NBSs can help address major development challenges in the region, such as water and food insecurity and unemployment.
Madeleine-Sophie Déroche
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 251–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-251-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proves the need to conduct an in-depth review of the existing loss modelling framework and makes it clear that only a transdisciplinary effort will be up to the challenge of building global loss models. These two factors are essential to capture the interactions and increasing complexity of the three risk drivers (exposure, hazard, and vulnerability), thus enabling insurers to anticipate and be equipped to face the far-ranging impacts of climate change and other natural events.
Cited articles
Benito, G., Diez-Herrero, A., and Villata, M. F. de: Magnitude and frequency
of flooding in the Tagus basin (Central Spain) over the last millenium, Climatic Change, 58, 171–192, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1023417102053, 2003.
Benito, G., Brázdil, R., Herget, J., and Machado, M. J.: Quantitative
historical hydrology in Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3517–3539,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3517-2015, 2015.
Benito, G., Castillo, O., Ballesteros-Cánovas, J. A., Machado, M., and
Barriendos, M.: Enhanced flood hazard assessment beyond decadal climate cycles based on centennial historical data (Duero basin, Spain), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6107–6132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6107-2021, 2021.
Bivand, R., Keitt, T., and Rowlingson, B.: rgdal: Bindings for the
`Geospatial' Data Abstraction Library [code], https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=rgdal (last access: 28 January 2022), 2019.
Blöschl, G., Hall, J., Viglione, A., Perdigão, R. A. P., Parajka, J., Merz, B., Lun, D., Arheimer, B., Aronica, G. T., Bilibashi, A., Boháč, M., Bonacci, O., Borga, M., Čanjevac, I., Castellarin, A., Chirico, G. B., Claps, P., Frolova, N., Ganora, D., Gorbachova, L., Gül, A., Hannaford, J., Harrigan, S., Kireeva, M., Kiss, A., Kjeldsen, T. R., Kohnová, S., Koskela, J. J., Ledvinka, O., Macdonald, N., Mavrova-Guirguinova, M., Mediero, L., Merz, R., Molnar, P., Montanari, A., Murphy, C., Osuch, M., Ovcharuk, V., Radevski, I., Salinas, J. L., Sauquet,
E., Šraj, M., Szolgay, J., Volpi, E., Wilson, D., Zaimi, K., and
Živković, N.: Changing climate both increases and decreases European
river floods, Nature, 573, 108–111, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6, 2019.
Blöschl, G., Kiss, A., Viglione, A., Barriendos, M., Böhm, O.,
Brázdil, R., Coeur, D., Demarée, G., Llasat, M. C., Macdonald, N.,
Retsö, D., Roald, L., Schmocker-Fackel, P., Amorim, I., Bělínová, M., Benito, G., Bertolin, C., Camuffo, D., Cornel, D., Doktor, R., Elleder, L., Enzi, S., Garcia, J. C., Glaser, R., Hall, J., Haslinger, K., Hofstätter, M., Komma, J., Limanówka, D., Lun, D.,
Panin, A., Parajka, J., Petrić, H., Rodrigo, F. S., Rohr, C., Schönbein, J., Schulte, L., Silva, L. P., Toonen, W. H. J., Valent, P.,
Waser, J., and Wetter, O.: Current European flood-rich period exceptional
compared with past 500 years, Nature, 583, 560–566, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2478-3, 2020.
Bösmeier, A.: Exploring and analyzing data for reconstruction, modeling,
and hazard assessment of historical floods in the Kinzig catchment, Upper
Rhine, Doctoral dissertation, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, https://doi.org/10.6094/UNIFR/222531, 2020.
Brázdil, R., Glaser, R., Pfister, C., Dobrovolný, P., Antoine, J.-M., Barriendos, M., Camuffo, D., Deutsch, M., Enzi, S., Guidoboni, E., Kotyza, O., and Rodrigo, F. S.: Flood Events of Selected European Rivers in the Sixteenth Century, Climatic Change, 43, 239–285, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005550401857, 1999.
Brázdil, R., Pfister, C., Wanner, H., Storch, H. V., and Luterbacher, J.: Historical Climatology In Europe – The State Of The Art, Climatic Change, 70, 363–430, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-5924-1, 2005.
Brázdil, R., Kundewicz, Z. W., and Benito, G.: Historical hydrology for
studying flood risk in Europe, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 51, 739–764, https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.51.5.739, 2006.
CMH – Centralbureau für Meteorologie und Hydrographie (Ed.): Beiträge zur Hydrographie des Grossherzogthums Baden: Das badische Pegelwesen, Erstes Heft, G. Braun, Karlsruhe, 1884.
CMH – Centralbureau für Meteorologie und Hydrographie (Ed.): Beiträge zur Hydrographie des Grossherzogthums Baden: Karten zum Fünften Heft: Der Binnenflussbau im Grossherzogthum Baden, G. Braun, Karlsruhe, 1887.
CMH – Zentralbureau für Meteorologie und Hydrographie (Ed.): Beiträge zur Hydrographie des Grossherzogtums Baden: Tafeln zum Dreizehnten Heft: Die Hochwassermarken im Grossherzogtum Baden, G. Braun, Karlsruhe, 1908.
CMH – Zentralbureau für Meteorologie und Hydrographie (Ed.): Beiträge zur Hydrographie des Grossherzogtums Baden: Die Hochwassermarken im Grossherzogtum Baden, Dreizehntes Heft, G. Braun, Karlsruhe, 1911.
Deutsch, M.: Einige Bemerkungen zu historischen Hochwassermarken – eine
Bestandsaufnahme an der Unstrut, Archäologie in Sachsen-Anhalt, 7, 25–31, 1997.
Di Baldassarre, G. and Montanari, A.: Uncertainty in river discharge observations: A quantitative analysis, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 913–921, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-13-913-2009, 2009.
Disch, F.: Chronik der Stadt Wolfach, Von Franz Disch Reallehrer und
Vorstand der Bürgerschule in Wolfach. Mit 3 Tafeldrucken und 95 Textabbildungen, G. Braunsche Hofdruckerei, Wolfach, Karlsruhe, 1920.
Elleder, L.: Historical changes in frequency of extreme floods in Prague,
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4307–4315, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4307-2015, 2015.
European Environment Agency: Mapping the impacts of natural hazards and
technological accidents in Europe: An overview of the last decade, EEA
technical report, no. 13/2010, Publications Office of the European Union,
Luxembourg, 146 pp., ISBN 978-92-9213-168-5, 2010.
Glaser, R., Riemann, D., Schönbein, J., Barriendos, M., Brázdil, R.,
Bertolin, C., Camuffo, D., Deutsch, M., Dobrovolný, P., van Engelen, A.,
Enzi, S., Halíčková, M., Koenig, S. J., Kotyza, O., Limanówka, D., Macková, J., Sghedoni, M., Martin, B., and Himmelsbach, I.: The variability of European floods since AD 1500, Climatic
Change, 101, 235–256, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9816-7, 2010.
Google Earth Pro: Version 7.3.3.7699, build date 05/07/2020. Image recording
date 10/18/2018 by Landsat/Copernicus: ca. 48∘18′00.00′′ N,
18∘13′27.00′′ E, Google Earth Pro [data set], https://earth.google.com/web/ (last access: 16 December 2021), 2020.
Gorączko, M.: Flood Marks in Poland and Their Significance in Water
Management and Flood Safety Education, in: Management of Water Resources in
Poland, edited by: Zeleňáková, M., Kubiak-Wójcicka, K., and
Negm, A. M., Springer International Publishing, Cham, 253–267,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-61965-7_13, 2021.
Hannaford, J., Buys, G., Stahl, K., and Tallaksen, L. M.: The influence of
decadal-scale variability on trends in long European streamflow records,
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2717–2733, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2717-2013, 2013.
Heppner, R.: Gegen Hochwasser rüsten ist nötig, baden,
https://www.bo.de/lokales/kinzigtal/gegen-hochwasser-ruesten-ist-noetig
(last access: 3 March 2022), 2020.
Herget, J., Roggenkamp, T., and Krell, M.: Estimation of peak discharges of
historical floods, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4029–4037,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4029-2014, 2014.
Hijmans, R. J.: raster: Geographic Data Analysis and Modeling, CRAN [code],
https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=raster (last access: 28 January 2022), 2020.
Himmelsbach, I.: Erfahrung – Mentalität – Management: Hochwasser und
Hochwasserschutz an den nicht-schiffbaren Flüssen im Ober-Elsass und am
Oberrhein (1480–2007), Doctoral Dissertation, Freiburger geographische
Hefte, Selbstverl. des Inst. für Umweltsozialwiss. und Geographie der
Albert-Ludwigs Univ., Freiburg im Breisgau, 244 pp., ISSN 0071-9447, 2014.
Himmelsbach, I., Glaser, R., Schoenbein, J., Riemann, D., and Martin, B.:
Reconstruction of flood events based on documentary data and transnational
flood risk analysis of the Upper Rhine and its French and German tributaries
since AD 1480, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4149–4164,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4149-2015, 2015.
Hosking, J. R. M. and Wallis, J. R.: The Value of Historical Data in Flood
Frequency Analysis, Water Resour. Res., 22, 1606–1612, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR022i011p01606, 1986.
Jarvis, A., Reuter, H. I., Nelson, A., and Guevara, E.: Hole-filled seamless
SRTM data V4, CIAT – International Centre for Tropical Agriculture,
http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org (last access: 30 March 2017), 2008.
Kjeldsen, T. R., Macdonald, N., Lang, M., Mediero, L., Albuquerque, T., Bogdanowicz, E., Brázdil, R., Castellarin, A., David, V., Fleig, A.,
Gül, G. O., Kriauciuniene, J., Kohnová, S., Merz, B., Nicholson, O.,
Roald, L. A., Salinas, J. L., Sarauskiene, D., Šraj, M., Strupczewski,
W., Szolgay, J., Toumazis, A., Vanneuville, W., Veijalainen, N., and Wilson,
D.: Documentary evidence of past floods in Europe and their utility in flood
frequency estimation, J. Hydrol., 517, 963–973, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.06.038, 2014.
Kuczera, G.: Correlated Rating Curve Error in Flood Frequency Inference,
Water Resour. Res., 32, 2119–2127, https://doi.org/10.1029/96WR00804, 1996.
Kundzewicz, Z. W., Pińskwar, I., and Brakenridge, G. R.: Changes in river flood hazard in Europe: a review, Hydrol. Res., 49, 294–302,
https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2017.016, 2018.
Leese, M. N.: Use of censored data in the estimation of Gumbel distribution
parameters for annual maximum flood series, Water Resour. Res., 9, 1534–1542, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR009i006p01534, 1973.
LUBW – Landesanstalt für Umwelt, Messungen und Naturschutz Baden-Württemberg: Abfluss-BW: Regionalisierte Abfluss-Kennwerte
Baden-Württemberg, Hochwasserabflüsse, Landesanstalt für Umwelt,
Messungen und Naturschutz Baden-Württemberg, https://udo.lubw.baden-wuerttemberg.de/projekte/themes/bwabfl/images/custom/dokumente/bwabfl/bwabfl_151012_Doku_HQ.pdf (last access: 2 ay 2018), 2015.
LUBW – Landesanstalt für Umwelt, Messungen und Naturschutz Baden-Württemberg: Flood Hazard Maps, status as of 27.09.2018, Basis:
data provided by the environment information system (UIS) of the LUBW;
Az. 2851.9-1/19, geodata © Landesanstalt für Geoinformation und Landesentwicklung Baden-Württemberg [data set], https://www.lgl-bw.de/ (last access: 27 September 2018), 2018.
Luu, C., von Meding, J., and Kanjanabootra, S.: Assessing flood hazard using
flood marks and analytic hierarchy process approach: A case study for the
2013 flood event in Quang Nam, Vietnam, Nat. Hazards, 90, 1031–1050,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-3083-0, 2018.
Macdonald, N.: Neil MacDonald on Epigraphic Records: A Valuable Resource in
Reassessing Flood Risk and Long-Term Climate Variability, Environ. Hist., 12, 136–140, https://doi.org/10.1093/envhis/12.1.136, 2007.
Macdonald, N.: Reassessing flood frequency for the River Trent through the
inclusion of historical flood information since ad 1320, Hydrol. Res., 44, 215–233, https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2012.188, 2013.
Macdonald, N. and Black, A. R.: Reassessment of flood frequency using
historical information for the River Ouse at York, UK (1200–2000), Hydrolog. Sci. J., 55, 1152–1162, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2010.508873, 2010.
Macdonald, N. and Sangster, H.: High-magnitude flooding across Britain since
AD 1750, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1631–1650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1631-2017, 2017.
Machado, M. J., Botero, B. A., López, J., Francés, F., Díez-Herrero, A., and Benito, G.: Flood frequency analysis of historical flood data under stationary and non-stationary modelling, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2561–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2561-2015, 2015.
Martin, B., Heitz, C., Trautmann, J., and Vincent, C.: Les repères de
crues: Réflexions géohistoriques autour d'un outil réglementaire de “culture du risque” d'inondation, in: Les Actes du CRESAT, edited by: CRESAT, Centre de recherche sur les économies, les sociétés, les arts et les techniques, Éditions du CRESAT, 195–217, ISSN 1766-4837, 2018.
McEwen, L., Garde-Hansen, J., Holmes, A., Jones, O., and Krause, F.: Sustainable flood memories, lay knowledges and the development of community
resilience to future flood risk, Trans. Inst. Brit. Geogr., 42, 14–28,
https://doi.org/10.1111/tran.12149, 2017.
Merz, R. and Blöschl, G.: Flood frequency hydrology: 1. Temporal, spatial, and causal expansion of information, Water Resour. Res., 44, W08432, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006744, 2008.
Merz, B., Bittner, R., Grünewald, U., and Piroth, K.: Management von
Hochwasserrisiken: Mit Beiträgen aus den RIMAX-Forschungsprojekten,
XII, Schweizerbart, Stuttgart, p. 248, ISBN 978-3-510-65268-6, 2011.
Merz, B., Kreibich, H., Thieken, A., and Vorogushyn, S.: Überraschende
Hochwasserereignisse: Lehren für Risikoanalysen, Notfallvorsorge: die
Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungsschutz und Katastrophenhilfe, 52, 19–23, 2021.
Metzger, A., David, F., Valette, P., Rode, S., Martin, B., Desarthe, J., and
Linton, J.: Entretenir la mémoire des inondations via les repères de
crue?, developpementdurable, https://doi.org/10.4000/developpementdurable.12937, 2018.
Ministerium für Umwelt, Klima und Energiewirtschaft Baden-Württemberg (Ed.): Bewertung des Hochwasserrisikos und Bestimmung
der Gebiete mit signifikantem Hochwasserrisiko in Baden-Württemberg:
Vorläufige Risikobewertung gemäß Artikel 4 und 5 der
Hochwasserrisikomanagementrichtlinie, https://www.hochwasser.baden-wuerttemberg.de/documents/20122/94084/Bewertung%20des%20Hochwasserrisikos%20und%20Bestimmung%20der%20Gebiete%20mit%20signifikantem%20Hochwasserrisiko%20in%20Baden-W%C3%BCrttemberg%20Vorl%C3%A4ufige%20Risikobewertung%20gem%C3%A4%C3%9F%20Artikel%204%20und%205%20der%20Hochwasserrisikomanagement-Richtlinie%20%281.Zyklus%29 (last access: 9 August 2018), 2011.
Ministerium für Umwelt, Klima und Energiewirtschaft Baden-Württemberg: Hochwassergefahrenkarten in Baden-Württemberg:
Leitfaden, https://www.hochwasser.baden-wuerttemberg.de/documents/20122/39136/Leitfaden+Hochwassergefahrenkarten+in+Baden-Württemberg.pdf/32948fc1-abde-e029-2bb9-3e34f1a46c3f?t=1620657569991 (last access: 25 July 2017), 2016.
Naulet, R., Lang, M., Ouarda, T. B. M. J., Coeur, D., Bobée, B., Recking,
A., and Moussay, D.: Flood frequency analysis on the Ardèche river using
French documentary sources from the last two centuries, J. Hydrol., 313, 58–78, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.02.011, 2005.
Paprotny, D., Sebastian, A., Morales-Nápoles, O., and Jonkman, S. N.:
Trends in flood losses in Europe over the past 150 years, Nat. Ccommun., 9, 1985, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04253-1, 2018.
Parkes, B. and Demeritt, D.: Defining the hundred year flood: A Bayesian
approach for using historic data to reduce uncertainty in flood frequency
estimates, J. Hydrol., 540, 1189–1208, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.07.025, 2016.
Payrastre, O., Gaume, E., and Andrieu, H.: Use of historical data to assess
the occurrence of floods in small watersheds in the French Mediterranean area, Adv. Geosci., 2, 313–320, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-2-313-2005, 2005.
Payrastre, O., Gaume, E., and Andrieu, H.: Usefulness of historical information for flood frequency analyses: Developments based on a case
study, Water Resour. Res., 47, W08511, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009812, 2011.
Pekárová, P., Halmová, D., Mitková, V. B., Miklánek, P.,
Pekár, J., and Škoda, P.: Historic flood marks and flood frequency
analysis of the Danube River at Bratislava, Slovakia, J. Hydrol. Hydromech., 61, 326–333, https://doi.org/10.2478/johh-2013-0041, 2013.
Pfister, C.: Klimageschichte der Schweiz, 1525–1860: Das Klima der Schweiz
von 1525–1860 und seine Bedeutung in der Geschichte von Bevoelkering und
Landwirtschaft, 6, 2 Bd., 2. unveraend. Aufl., Academica Helvetica, Haupt, Bern, ISBN 978-3258039565, 1985.
R Core Team: R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing,
Vienna, Austria, http://www.R-project.org/ (last access: 8 August 2022), 2015.
Reich, J., Bödeker, F., Gruhler-Gerling, C., Stegmaier, A., and Kirste,
D. (Eds.): Hochwassergefahrenkarte Baden-Württemberg: Beschreibung der
Vorgehensweise zur Erstellung von Hochwassergefahrenkarten in
Baden-Württemberg, Version 2.3, Ministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz
und Verkehr Baden-Württemberg, Regierungspräsidium Freiburg,
Regierungspräsidium Karlsruhe, and Regierungspräsidium Tübingen,
https://www.hochwasser.baden-wuerttemberg.de/documents/20122/39136/Hochwassergefahrenkarten%20Beschreibung%20der%20Vorgehensweise%20zur%20Erstellung%20von%20Hochwassergefahrenkarten%20in%20Baden-W%C3%BCrttemberg (last access: 9 August 2018), 2012.
Riach, N., Scholze, N., Glaser, R., and Roy, S., and Stern, B.: Klimawandel
am Oberrhein: Ein zweisprachiges Dossier mit 24 Karten und 6 Begleittexten:
Changement climatique dans le Rhin Superieur: un dossier bilingue avec 24 cartes et 6 textes d'accompagnement, https://www.georhena.eu/sites/default/files/Cartes/Klimawandel_am_Oberrhein_Changement_climatique_dans_le_Rhin_superieur.pdf (last access: 17 September 2020), 2019.
Riemann, D., Glaser, R., Kahle, M., and Vogt, S.: The CRE tambora.org – new
data and tools for collaborative research in climate and environmental history, Geosci. Data J., 2, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.1002/gdj3.30, 2016.
Roggenkamp, T. and Herget, J.: Reconstructing peak discharges of historic floods of the River Ahr, Germany, Erdkunde, 68, 49–59, 2014.
Stedinger, J. R. and Cohn, T. A.: Flood Frequency Analysis With Historical
and Paleoflood Information, Water Resour. Res., 22, 785–793,
https://doi.org/10.1029/WR022i005p00785, 1986.
Thieken, A., Kemter, M., Vorogushyn, S., Berghäuser, L., Sieg, T.,
Natho, S., Mohor, G., Petrow, T., Merz, B., and Bronstert, A.: Extreme
Hochwasser bleiben trotz integriertem Risikomanagement eine Herausforderung,
https://www.uni-potsdam.de/fileadmin/projects/natriskchange/Taskforces/Flut2021_StatementThiekenEtAl.pdf (last access: 14 February 2022), Potsdam, 2021.
Thober, S., Kumar, R., Wanders, N., Marx, A., Pan, M., Rakovec, O., Samaniego, L., Sheffield, J., Wood, E. F., and Zink, M.: Multi-model ensemble projections of European river floods and high flows at 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees global warming, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 14003, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9e35, 2018.
Viglione, A., Merz, R., Salinas, J. L., and Blöschl, G.: Flood frequency
hydrology: 3. A Bayesian analysis, Water Resour. Res., 49, 675–692,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR010782, 2013.
Wetter, O.: The potential of historical hydrology in Switzerland, Hydrol.
Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5781–5803, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5781-2017, 2017.
Executive editor
The paper addresses historical flood marks as a information source, coming to the conclusion that it is worthwhile to maintain them, and include them in scientific evaluations. The authors find, for example, plausible and historically sound reasons in changed local hydraulic conditions by flood protection walls, and effects of exceptional processes during a massive ice jam.
The paper addresses historical flood marks as a information source, coming to the conclusion...
Short summary
Encouraging a systematic use of flood marks for more comprehensive flood risk management, we collected a large number of marks along the Kinzig, southwestern Germany, and tested them for plausibility and temporal continuance. Despite uncertainty, the marks appeared to be an overall consistent and practical source that may also increase flood risk awareness. A wide agreement between the current flood hazard maps and the collected flood marks moreover indicated a robust local hazard assessment.
Encouraging a systematic use of flood marks for more comprehensive flood risk management, we...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint