Articles | Volume 22, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1371-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1371-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
19 Apr 2022
Research article |
| 19 Apr 2022
| 19 Apr 2022
A performance-based approach to quantify atmospheric river flood risk
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
Katherine A. Serafin
Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
Jack Baker
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
Related authors
No articles found.
Chu-En Hsu, Katherine A. Serafin, Xiao Yu, Christie A. Hegermiller, John C. Warner, and Maitane Olabarrieta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3895–3912, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3895-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Total water levels (TWLs) induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the leading hazards faced by coastal communities. Using numerical models, we examined how TWL components (surge and wave runup) along the South Atlantic Bight varied during hurricanes Matthew (2016), Dorian (2019), and Isaias (2020). Peak surge and peak wave runup were dominated by wind speeds and relative positions to TCs. The exceedance time of TWLs was controlled by normalized distances to TC and TC translation speeds.
Lukas Bodenmann, Jack W. Baker, and Božidar Stojadinović
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2387–2402, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2387-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2387-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding spatial patterns in earthquake-induced ground motions is key for assessing the seismic risk of distributed infrastructure systems. To study such patterns, we propose a novel model that accounts for spatial proximity, as well as site and path effects, and estimate its parameters from past earthquake data by explicitly quantifying the inherent uncertainties.
Katherine A. Serafin, Peter Ruggiero, Kai Parker, and David F. Hill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1415–1431, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1415-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1415-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In coastal environments, extreme water levels driving flooding are often generated by many individual processes like storm surge, streamflow, and tides. To estimate flood drivers along a coastal river, we merge statistical simulations of ocean and river forcing with a hydraulic model to produce water levels. We find both ocean and river forcing are necessary for producing extreme flood levels like the 100-yr event, highlighting the need for considering compound events in flood risk assessments.
Related subject area
Hydrological Hazards
Brief communication: A first hydrological investigation of extreme August 2023 floods in Slovenia, Europe
Multivariate regression trees as an “explainable machine learning” approach to explore relationships between hydroclimatic characteristics and agricultural and hydrological drought severity: case of study Cesar River basin
Review article: Towards improved drought prediction in the Mediterranean region – modeling approaches and future directions
Assessing typhoon-induced compound flood drivers: a case study in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Assessing the ability of a new seamless short-range ensemble rainfall product to anticipate flash floods in the French Mediterranean area
Sentinel-1-based analysis of the severe flood over Pakistan 2022
Current and Future Rainfall-Driven Flood Risk From Hurricanes in Puerto Rico Under 1.5 °C and 2 °C Climate Change
Sensitivity analysis of erosion on the landward slope of an earthen flood defense located in southern France submitted to wave overtopping
Better prepared but less resilient: the paradoxical impact of frequent flood experience on adaptive behavior and resilience
Assessing the spatial spread–skill of ensemble flood maps with remote-sensing observations
An integrated modeling approach to evaluate the impacts of nature-based solutions of flood mitigation across a small watershed in the southeast United States
Indicator-to-impact links to help improve agricultural drought preparedness in Thailand
The potential of open-access data for flood estimations: uncovering inundation hotspots in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, through a normalized flood severity index
Analyzing the informative value of alternative hazard indicators for monitoring drought hazard for human water supply and river ecosystems at the global scale
Using integrated hydrological-hydraulic modelling and global data sources to analyse the February 2023 floods in the Umbeluzi catchment (Mozambique)
Assessing the next generation of Global Flood Models in the Central Highlands of Vietnam
A methodological framework for the evaluation of short-range flash-flood hydrometeorological forecasts at the event scale
Impact-based flood forecasting in the Greater Horn of Africa
Hydrological drought forecasting under a changing environment in the Luanhe River basin
A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 2: Historical context and relation to climate change
Brief communication: The potential use of low-cost acoustic sensors to detect rainfall for short-term urban flood warnings
Brief communication: On the extremeness of the July 2021 precipitation event in western Germany
A climate-conditioned catastrophe risk model for UK flooding
A globally applicable framework for compound flood hazard modeling
Transferability of data-driven models to predict urban pluvial flood water depth in Berlin, Germany
Brief communication: Inclusiveness in designing an early warning system for flood resilience
Evolution of multivariate drought hazard, vulnerability and risk in India under climate change
CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Model Experiment): a new model for geo-hydrological hazard assessment at the basin scale
A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 1: Event description and analysis
Bare-earth DEM generation from ArcticDEM and its use in flood simulation
Comparison of estimated flood exposure and consequences generated by different event-based inland flood inundation maps
How uncertain are precipitation and peak flow estimates for the July 2021 flooding event?
Estimating the likelihood of roadway pluvial flood based on crowdsourced traffic data and depression-based DEM analysis
A multi-strategy-mode waterlogging-prediction framework for urban flood depth
Multiscale flood risk assessment under climate change: the case of the Miño River in the city of Ourense, Spain
Interactions between precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil-moisture-based indices to characterize drought with high-resolution remote sensing and land-surface model data
How to mitigate flood events similar to the 1979 catastrophic floods in lower Tagus
Rare flood scenarios for a rapidly growing high-mountain city: Pokhara, Nepal
Brief communication: Impact forecasting could substantially improve the emergency management of deadly floods: case study July 2021 floods in Germany
Brief communication: Western Europe flood in 2021 – mapping agriculture flood exposure from synthetic aperture radar (SAR)
Comprehensive space–time hydrometeorological simulations for estimating very rare floods at multiple sites in a large river basin
A new index to quantify the extremeness of precipitation across scales
Effectiveness of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 for flood detection assessment in Europe
Assessing flood hazard changes using climate model forcing
Characterizing multivariate coastal flooding events in a semi-arid region: the implications of copula choice, sampling, and infrastructure
Different drought types and the spatial variability in their hazard, impact, and propagation characteristics
More than heavy rain turning into fast-flowing water – a landscape perspective on the 2021 Eifel floods
Integrated drought risk assessment to support adaptive policymaking in the Netherlands
INSYDE-BE: adaptation of the INSYDE model to the Walloon region (Belgium)
Assessing flooding impact to riverine bridges: an integrated analysis
Nejc Bezak, Panos Panagos, Leonidas Liakos, and Matjaž Mikoš
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3885–3893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3885-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3885-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme flooding occurred in Slovenia in August 2023. This brief communication examines the main causes, mechanisms and effects of this event. The flood disaster of August 2023 can be described as relatively extreme and was probably the most extreme flood event in Slovenia in recent decades. The economic damage was large and could amount to well over 5 % of Slovenia's annual gross domestic product; the event also claimed three lives.
Ana Paez-Trujilo, Jeffer Cañon, Beatriz Hernandez, Gerald Corzo, and Dimitri Solomatine
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3863–3883, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses a machine learning technique, the multivariate regression tree approach, to assess the hydroclimatic characteristics that govern agricultural and hydrological drought severity. The results show that the employed technique successfully identified the primary drivers of droughts and their critical thresholds. In addition, it provides relevant information to identify the areas most vulnerable to droughts and design strategies and interventions for drought management.
Bouchra Zellou, Nabil El Moçayd, and El Houcine Bergou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3543–3583, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we underscore the critical importance of strengthening drought prediction capabilities in the Mediterranean region. We present an in-depth evaluation of current drought forecasting approaches, encompassing statistical, dynamical, and hybrid statistical–dynamical models, and highlight unexplored research opportunities. Additionally, we suggest viable directions to enhance drought prediction and early warning systems within the area.
Francisco Rodrigues do Amaral, Nicolas Gratiot, Thierry Pellarin, and Tran Anh Tu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3379–3405, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3379-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3379-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose an in-depth analysis of typhoon-induced compound flood drivers in the megacity of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. We use in situ and satellite measurements throughout the event to form a holistic overview of its impact. No evidence of storm surge was found, and peak precipitation presents a 16 h time lag to peak river discharge, which evacuates only 1.5 % of available water. The astronomical tide controls the river level even during the extreme event, and it is the main urban flood driver.
Juliette Godet, Olivier Payrastre, Pierre Javelle, and François Bouttier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3355–3377, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article results from a master's research project which was part of a natural hazards programme developed by the French Ministry of Ecological Transition. The objective of this work was to investigate a possible way to improve the operational flash flood warning service by adding rainfall forecasts upstream of the forecasting chain. The results showed that the tested forecast product, which is new and experimental, has a real added value compared to other classical forecast products.
Florian Roth, Bernhard Bauer-Marschallinger, Mark Edwin Tupas, Christoph Reimer, Peter Salamon, and Wolfgang Wagner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3305–3317, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3305-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3305-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In August and September 2022, millions of people were impacted by a severe flood event in Pakistan. Since many roads and other infrastructure were destroyed, satellite data were the only way of providing large-scale information on the flood's impact. Based on the flood mapping algorithm developed at Technische Universität Wien (TU Wien), we mapped an area of 30 492 km2 that was flooded at least once during the study's time period. This affected area matches about the total area of Belgium.
Leanne Archer, Jeffrey Neal, Paul Bates, Emily Vosper, Dereka Carroll, Jeison Sosa, and Daniel Mitchell
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1574, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1574, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We model hurricane rainfall-driven flooding to assess how the number of people exposed to flooding changes in Puerto Rico under the 1.5 °C and 2 °C Paris Agreement Goals. Our analysis suggests 8–10 % of the population is currently exposed to flooding on average every 5 years, increasing by 2–15 % and 1–20 % at 1.5 °C and 2 °C. This has implications for adaptation to more extreme flooding in Puerto Rico and demonstrates that 1.5 °C climate change carries a significant increase in risk.
Clément Houdard, Adrien Poupardin, Philippe Sergent, Abdelkrim Bennabi, and Jena Jeong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3111–3124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3111-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a system able to to predict, knowing the appropriate characteristics of the flood defense structure and sea state, the return periods of potentially dangerous events as well as a ranking of parameters by order of uncertainty.
The model is a combination of statistical and empirical methods that have been applied to a Mediterranean earthen dike. This shows that the most important characteristics of the dyke are its geometrical features, such as its height and slope angles.
Lisa Köhler, Torsten Masson, Sabrina Köhler, and Christian Kuhlicke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2787–2806, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2787-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2787-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed the impact of flood experience on adaptive behavior and self-reported resilience. The outcomes draw a paradoxical picture: the most experienced people are the most adapted but the least resilient. We find evidence for non-linear relationships between the number of floods experienced and resilience. We contribute to existing knowledge by focusing specifically on the number of floods experienced and extending the rare scientific literature on the influence of experience on resilience.
Helen Hooker, Sarah L. Dance, David C. Mason, John Bevington, and Kay Shelton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2769–2785, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2769-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2769-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ensemble forecasts of flood inundation produce maps indicating the probability of flooding. A new approach is presented to evaluate the spatial performance of an ensemble flood map forecast by comparison against remotely observed flooding extents. This is important for understanding forecast uncertainties and improving flood forecasting systems.
Betina I. Guido, Ioana Popescu, Vidya Samadi, and Biswa Bhattacharya
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2663–2681, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2663-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We used an integrated model to evaluate the impacts of nature-based solutions (NBSs) on flood mitigation across the Little Pee Dee and Lumber River watershed, the Carolinas, US. This area is strongly affected by climatic disasters, which are expected to increase due to climate change and urbanization, so exploring an NBS approach is crucial for adapting to future alterations. Our research found that NBSs can have visible effects on the reduction in hurricane-driven flooding.
Maliko Tanguy, Michael Eastman, Eugene Magee, Lucy J. Barker, Thomas Chitson, Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit, Daniel Goodwin, Jamie Hannaford, Ian Holman, Liwa Pardthaisong, Simon Parry, Dolores Rey Vicario, and Supattra Visessri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2419–2441, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2419-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2419-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts in Thailand are becoming more severe due to climate change. Understanding the link between drought impacts on the ground and drought indicators used in drought monitoring systems can help increase a country's preparedness and resilience to drought. With a focus on agricultural droughts, we derive crop- and region-specific indicator-to-impact links that can form the basis of targeted mitigation actions and an improved drought monitoring and early warning system in Thailand.
Leon Scheiber, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Christian Jordan, Jan Visscher, Hong Quan Nguyen, and Torsten Schlurmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2313–2332, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2313-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical models are increasingly important for assessing urban flooding, yet reliable input data are oftentimes hard to obtain. Taking Ho Chi Minh City as an example, this paper explores the usability and reliability of open-access data to produce preliminary risk maps that provide first insights into potential flooding hotspots. As a key novelty, a normalized flood severity index is presented which combines flood depth and duration to enhance the interpretation of hydro-numerical results.
Claudia Herbert and Petra Döll
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2111–2131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2111-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new method for selecting streamflow drought hazard indicators for monitoring drought hazard for human water supply and river ecosystems in large-scale drought early warning systems. Indicators are classified by their inherent assumptions about the habituation of people and ecosystems to the streamflow regime and their level of drought characterization, namely drought magnitude (water deficit at a certain point in time) and severity (cumulated magnitude since drought onset).
Luis Cea, Manuel Álvarez, and Jerónimo Puertas
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1003, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1003, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mozambique is highly exposed to the impact of floods. To reduce flood damage, it is necessary to develop mitigation measures. Hydrological software is a very useful tool for that purpose, since it allows a precise quantification of flood hazard under different scenarios. We present a methodology to quantify flood hazard in data scarce regions, using freely available data and software, and we show its potential by analysing the flood event that took place in the Umbeluzi basin in February 2023.
Laurence Hawker, Jeffrey Neal, James Savage, Thomas Kirkpatrick, Rachel Lord, Yanos Zylberberg, Andre Groeger, Truong Dang Thuy, Sean Fox, Felix Agyemang, and Khanh Pham Nam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-93, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-93, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
A global flood model built using a new terrain dataset and evaluated in the central highlands of Vietnam.
Maryse Charpentier-Noyer, Daniela Peredo, Axelle Fleury, Hugo Marchal, François Bouttier, Eric Gaume, Pierre Nicolle, Olivier Payrastre, and Maria-Helena Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2001–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a methodological framework designed for event-based evaluation in the context of an intense flash-flood event. The evaluation adopts the point of view of end users, with a focus on the anticipation of exceedances of discharge thresholds. With a study of rainfall forecasts, a discharge evaluation and a detailed look at the forecast hydrographs, the evaluation framework should help in drawing robust conclusions about the usefulness of new rainfall ensemble forecasts.
Lorenzo Alfieri, Andrea Libertino, Lorenzo Campo, Francesco Dottori, Simone Gabellani, Tatiana Ghizzoni, Alessandro Masoero, Lauro Rossi, Roberto Rudari, Nicola Testa, Eva Trasforini, Ahmed Amdihun, Jully Ouma, Luca Rossi, Yves Tramblay, Huan Wu, and Marco Massabò
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-804, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-804, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes Flood-PROOFS East Africa, an impact-based flood forecasting system for the Greater Horn of Africa. It is based on hydrological simulations, inundation mapping, and estimation of population and assets exposed to upcoming river floods. The system supports duty officers in African institutions in the daily monitoring of hydro-meteorological disasters. A first evaluation shows the system performance for the catastrophic floods in the Nile River Basin in Summer 2020.
Min Li, Mingfeng Zhang, Runxiang Cao, Yidi Sun, and Xiyuan Deng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1453–1464, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1453-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1453-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
It is an important disaster reduction strategy to forecast hydrological drought. In order to analyse the impact of human activities on hydrological drought, we constructed the human activity factor based on the method of restoration. With the increase of human index (HI) value, hydrological droughts tend to transition to more severe droughts. The conditional distribution model involving of human activity factor can further improve the forecasting accuracy of drought in the Luanhe River basin.
Patrick Ludwig, Florian Ehmele, Mário J. Franca, Susanna Mohr, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Uwe Ehret, Hendrik Feldmann, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Michael Kunz, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1287–1311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring countries. The event was among the five heaviest precipitation events of the past 70 years in Germany, and the river discharges exceeded by far the statistical 100-year return values. Simulations of the event under future climate conditions revealed a strong and non-linear effect on flood peaks: for +2 K global warming, an 18 % increase in rainfall led to a 39 % increase of the flood peak in the Ahr river.
Nadav Peleg, Herminia Torelló-Sentelles, Grégoire Mariéthoz, Lionel Benoit, João P. Leitão, and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1233–1240, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Floods in urban areas are one of the most common natural hazards. Due to climate change enhancing extreme rainfall and cities becoming larger and denser, the impacts of these events are expected to increase. A fast and reliable flood warning system should thus be implemented in flood-prone cities to warn the public of upcoming floods. The purpose of this brief communication is to discuss the potential implementation of low-cost acoustic rainfall sensors in short-term flood warning systems.
Katharina Lengfeld, Paul Voit, Frank Kaspar, and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1227–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1227-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1227-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Estimating the severity of a rainfall event based on the damage caused is easy but highly depends on the affected region. A less biased measure for the extremeness of an event is its rarity combined with its spatial extent. In this brief communication, we investigate the sensitivity of such measures to the underlying dataset and highlight the importance of considering multiple spatial and temporal scales using the devastating rainfall event in July 2021 in central Europe as an example.
Paul D. Bates, James Savage, Oliver Wing, Niall Quinn, Christopher Sampson, Jeffrey Neal, and Andrew Smith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 891–908, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-891-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-891-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present and validate a model that simulates current and future flood risk for the UK at high resolution (~ 20–25 m). We show that UK flood losses were ~ 6 % greater in the climate of 2020 compared to recent historical values. The UK can keep any future increase to ~ 8 % if all countries implement their COP26 pledges and net-zero ambitions in full. However, if only the COP26 pledges are fulfilled, then UK flood losses increase by ~ 23 %; and potentially by ~ 37 % in a worst-case scenario.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Tim Leijnse, Hiroaki Ikeuchi, Dai Yamazaki, Sanne Muis, Job Dullaart, Arjen Haag, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 823–846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In coastal deltas, flooding can occur from interactions between coastal, riverine, and pluvial drivers, so-called compound flooding. Global models however ignore these interactions. We present a framework for automated and reproducible compound flood modeling anywhere globally and validate it for two historical events in Mozambique with good results. The analysis reveals differences in compound flood dynamics between both events related to the magnitude of and time lag between drivers.
Omar Seleem, Georgy Ayzel, Axel Bronstert, and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 809–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-809-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-809-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Data-driven models are becoming more of a surrogate that overcomes the limitations of the computationally expensive 2D hydrodynamic models to map urban flood hazards. However, the model's ability to generalize outside the training domain is still a major challenge. We evaluate the performance of random forest and convolutional neural networks to predict urban floodwater depth and investigate their transferability outside the training domain.
Tahmina Yasmin, Kieran Khamis, Anthony Ross, Subir Sen, Anita Sharma, Debashish Sen, Sumit Sen, Wouter Buytaert, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 667–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-667-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-667-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Floods continue to be a wicked problem that require developing early warning systems with plausible assumptions of risk behaviour, with more targeted conversations with the community at risk. Through this paper we advocate the use of a SMART approach to encourage bottom-up initiatives to develop inclusive and purposeful early warning systems that benefit the community at risk by engaging them at every step of the way along with including other stakeholders at multiple scales of operations.
Venkataswamy Sahana and Arpita Mondal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 623–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-623-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-623-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In an agriculture-dependent, densely populated country such as India, drought risk projection is important to assess future water security. This study presents the first comprehensive drought risk assessment over India, integrating hazard and vulnerability information. Future drought risk is found to be more significantly driven by increased vulnerability resulting from societal developments rather than climate-induced changes in hazard. These findings can inform planning for drought resilience.
Andrea Abbate, Leonardo Mancusi, Antonella Frigerio, Monica Papini, and Laura Longoni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-15, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-15, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Model Experiment) is a new spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model. The main novelties are: the ability to integrate with climatic scenario outputs and the reproduction of geo-hydrological hazards strongly related to rainfalls such as shallow landslide, debris flow and watershed erosion. CRHyME has been written in PYTHON and works at a high spatial and temporal resolution to simulate geo-hydrological hazards triggered by extreme rainfall events.
Susanna Mohr, Uwe Ehret, Michael Kunz, Patrick Ludwig, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Mário J. Franca, Christian Gattke, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Marc Scheibel, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 525–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The flood event in July 2021 was one of the most severe disasters in Europe in the last half century. The objective of this two-part study is a multi-disciplinary assessment that examines the complex process interactions in different compartments, from meteorology to hydrological conditions to hydro-morphological processes to impacts on assets and environment. In addition, we address the question of what measures are possible to generate added value to early response management.
Yinxue Liu, Paul D. Bates, and Jeffery C. Neal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 375–391, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-375-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we test two approaches for removing buildings and other above-ground objects from a state-of-the-art satellite photogrammetry topography product, ArcticDEM. Our best technique gives a 70 % reduction in vertical error, with an average difference of 1.02 m from a benchmark lidar for the city of Helsinki, Finland. When used in a simulation of rainfall-driven flooding, the bare-earth version of ArcticDEM yields a significant improvement in predicted inundation extent and water depth.
Joseph L. Gutenson, Ahmad A. Tavakoly, Mohammad S. Islam, Oliver E. J. Wing, William P. Lehman, Chase O. Hamilton, Mark D. Wahl, and T. Christopher Massey
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 261–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-261-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Emergency managers use event-based flood inundation maps (FIMs) to plan and coordinate flood emergency response. We perform a case study test of three different FIM frameworks to see if FIM differences lead to substantial differences in the location and magnitude of flood exposure and consequences. We find that the FIMs are very different spatially and that the spatial differences do produce differences in the location and magnitude of exposure and consequences.
Mohamed Saadi, Carina Furusho-Percot, Alexandre Belleflamme, Ju-Yu Chen, Silke Trömel, and Stefan Kollet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 159–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-159-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-159-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
On 14 July 2021, heavy rainfall fell over central Europe, causing considerable damage and human fatalities. We analyzed how accurate our estimates of rainfall and peak flow were for these flooding events in western Germany. We found that the rainfall estimates from radar measurements were improved by including polarimetric variables and their vertical gradients. Peak flow estimates were highly uncertain due to uncertainties in hydrological model parameters and rainfall measurements.
Arefeh Safaei-Moghadam, David Tarboton, and Barbara Minsker
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change, urbanization, and aging infrastructure contribute to flooding on roadways. This study evaluates the potential for flood reports collected from Waze – a community-based navigation app – to predict these events. Waze reports correlate primarily with low-lying depressions on roads. Therefore, we developed two data-driven models to determine whether roadways will flood. Analysis showed that in the city of Dallas, drainage area and imperviousness are the most significant contributors.
Zongjia Zhang, Jun Liang, Yujue Zhou, Zhejun Huang, Jie Jiang, Junguo Liu, and Lili Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4139–4165, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4139-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
An innovative multi-strategy-mode waterlogging-prediction framework for predicting waterlogging depth is proposed in the paper. The framework selects eight regression algorithms for comparison and tests the prediction accuracy and robustness of the model under different prediction strategies. Ultimately, the accuracy of predicting water depth after 30 min can exceed 86.1 %. This can aid decision-making in terms of issuing early warning information and determining emergency responses in advance.
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Orlando García-Feal, José González-Cao, Maite deCastro, and Moncho Gómez-Gesteira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3957–3972, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3957-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3957-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A multiscale analysis, where the historical and future precipitation data from the CORDEX project were used as input in a hydrological model (HEC-HMS) that, in turn, feeds a 2D hydraulic model (Iber+), was applied to the case of the Miño-Sil basin (NW Spain), specifically to Ourense city, in order to analyze future changes in flood hazard. Detailed flood maps indicate an increase in the frequency and intensity of future floods, implying an increase in flood hazard in important areas of the city.
Jaime Gaona, Pere Quintana-Seguí, María José Escorihuela, Aaron Boone, and María Carmen Llasat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3461–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3461-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3461-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts represent a particularly complex natural hazard and require explorations of their multiple causes. Part of the complexity has roots in the interaction between the continuous changes in and deviation from normal conditions of the atmosphere and the land surface. The exchange between the atmospheric and surface conditions defines feedback towards dry or wet conditions. In semi-arid environments, energy seems to exceed water in its impact over the evolution of conditions, favoring drought.
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Alexandre M. Ramos, José González-Cao, Orlando García-Feal, Cristina Catita, Moncho Gómez-Gesteira, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-243, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The present study focuses on an in depth analysis of floods in the lower section of the Tagus river from a hydrodynamic perspective by means of Iber+ numerical model and on the development of dam operating strategies to mitigate the flood episodes using the outstating floods of February 1979 as benchmark. Obtained results corroborate the model capability to evaluate floods in the study area and confirm the effectiveness of the proposed strategies to reduce flood impact in lower Tagus valley.
Melanie Fischer, Jana Brettin, Sigrid Roessner, Ariane Walz, Monique Fort, and Oliver Korup
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3105–3123, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3105-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3105-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Nepal’s second-largest city has been rapidly growing since the 1970s, although its valley has been affected by rare, catastrophic floods in recent and historic times. We analyse potential impacts of such floods on urban areas and infrastructure by modelling 10 physically plausible flood scenarios along Pokhara’s main river. We find that hydraulic effects would largely affect a number of squatter settlements, which have expanded rapidly towards the river by a factor of up to 20 since 2008.
Heiko Apel, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3005–3014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a fast 2D hydraulic simulation model for flood propagation that enables operational forecasts of spatially distributed inundation depths, flood extent, flow velocities, and other flood impacts. The detailed spatial forecast of floods and flood impacts is a large step forward from the currently operational forecasts of discharges at selected gauges, thus enabling a more targeted flood management and early warning.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2921–2927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2921-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2921-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study depicts the flood-affected areas in western Europe in July 2021 and particularly the agriculture land that was under flood inundation. The results indicate that the total inundated area over western Europe is about 1920 km2, of which 1320 km2 is in France. Around 64 % of the inundated area is agricultural land. We expect that the agricultural productivity in western Europe will have been severely impacted.
Daniel Viviroli, Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner, Guillaume Evin, Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Jérémy Chardon, Anne-Catherine Favre, Benoit Hingray, Gilles Nicolet, Damien Raynaud, Jan Seibert, Rolf Weingartner, and Calvin Whealton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2891–2920, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2891-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2891-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Estimating the magnitude of rare to very rare floods is a challenging task due to a lack of sufficiently long observations. The challenge is even greater in large river basins, where precipitation patterns and amounts differ considerably between individual events and floods from different parts of the basin coincide. We show that a hydrometeorological model chain can provide plausible estimates in this setting and can thus inform flood risk and safety assessments for critical infrastructure.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2791–2805, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2791-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2791-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To better understand how the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events (HPEs) will change with changing climate and to adapt disaster risk management accordingly, we have to quantify the extremeness of HPEs in a reliable way. We introduce the xWEI (cross-scale WEI) and show that this index can reveal important characteristics of HPEs that would otherwise remain hidden. We conclude that the xWEI could be a valuable instrument in both disaster risk management and research.
Angelica Tarpanelli, Alessandro C. Mondini, and Stefania Camici
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2473–2489, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2473-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2473-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed 10 years of river discharge data from almost 2000 sites in Europe, and we extracted flood events, as proxies of flood inundations, based on the overpasses of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellites to derive the percentage of potential inundation events that they were able to observe. Results show that on average 58 % of flood events are potentially observable by Sentinel-1 and only 28 % by Sentinel-2 due to the obstacle of cloud coverage.
David P. Callaghan and Michael G. Hughes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2459–2472, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2459-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2459-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A new method was developed to estimate changes in flood hazard under climate change. We use climate projections covering New South Wales, Australia, with two emission paths of business as usual and one with reduced emissions. We apply our method to the lower floodplain of the Gwydir Valley with changes in flood hazard provided over the next 90 years compared with the previous 50 years. We find that changes in flood hazard decrease over time within the Gwydir Valley floodplain.
Joseph T. D. Lucey and Timu W. Gallien
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2145–2167, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2145-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2145-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal flooding can result from multiple flood drivers (e.g., tides, waves, river flows, rainfall) occurring at the same time. This study characterizes flooding events caused by high marine water levels and rain. Results show that wet-season coinciding sampling may better describe extreme flooding events in a dry, tidally dominated region. A joint-probability-based function is then used to estimate sea wall impacts on urban coastal flooding.
Erik Tijdeman, Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lucas Menzel, and Kerstin Stahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2099–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2099-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2099-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We identified different drought types with typical hazard and impact characteristics. The summer drought type with compounding heat was most impactful. Regional drought propagation of this drought type exhibited typical characteristics that can guide drought management. However, we also found a large spatial variability that caused distinct differences among propagating drought signals. Accordingly, local multivariate drought information was needed to explain the full range of drought impacts.
Michael Dietze, Rainer Bell, Ugur Ozturk, Kristen L. Cook, Christoff Andermann, Alexander R. Beer, Bodo Damm, Ana Lucia, Felix S. Fauer, Katrin M. Nissen, Tobias Sieg, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1845–1856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The flood that hit Europe in July 2021, specifically the Eifel, Germany, was more than a lot of fast-flowing water. The heavy rain that fell during the 3 d before also caused the slope to fail, recruited tree trunks that clogged bridges, and routed debris across the landscape. Especially in the upper parts of the catchments the flood was able to gain momentum. Here, we discuss how different landscape elements interacted and highlight the challenges of holistic future flood anticipation.
Marjolein J. P. Mens, Gigi van Rhee, Femke Schasfoort, and Neeltje Kielen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1763–1776, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1763-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1763-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Many countries have to prepare for droughts by proposing policy actions to increase water supply, reduce water demand, or limit the societal impact. Societal cost–benefit analysis is required to support decision-making for a range of future scenarios, accounting for climate change and socio-economic developments. This paper presents a framework to assess drought policy actions based on quantification of drought risk and exemplifies it for the Netherlands’ drought risk management strategy.
Anna Rita Scorzini, Benjamin Dewals, Daniela Rodriguez Castro, Pierre Archambeau, and Daniela Molinari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1743–1761, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1743-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1743-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a replicable procedure for the adaptation of synthetic, multi-variable flood damage models among countries that may have different hazard and vulnerability features. The procedure is exemplified here for the case of adaptation to the Belgian context of a flood damage model, INSYDE, for the residential sector, originally developed for Italy. The study describes necessary changes in model assumptions and input parameters to properly represent the new context of implementation.
Maria Pregnolato, Andrew O. Winter, Dakota Mascarenas, Andrew D. Sen, Paul Bates, and Michael R. Motley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1559–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1559-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1559-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The interaction of flow, structure and network is complex, and yet to be fully understood. This study aims to establish rigorous practices of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) for modelling hydrodynamic forces on inundated bridges, and understanding the consequences of such impacts on the surrounding network. The objectives of this study are to model hydrodynamic forces as the demand on the bridge structure, to advance a structural reliability and network-level analysis.
Cited articles
Albano, C. M., Dettinger, M. D., and Harpold, A. A.: Patterns and Drivers of
Atmospheric River Precipitation and Hydrologic Impacts across the Western
United States, J. Hydrometeorol., 21, 143–159, https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-19-0119.1, 2020. a, b
Apel, H., Thieken, A. H., Merz, B., and Blöschl, G.: Flood risk assessment and associated uncertainty, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 295–308, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-4-295-2004, 2004. a, b
Apel, H., Aronica, G. T., Kreibich, H., and Thieken, A. H.: Flood risk
analyses – How detailed do we need to be?, Nat. Hazards, 49, 79–98,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9277-8, 2009. a
Baker, J. W., Bradley, B. A., and Stafford, P. J.: Seismic Hazard and Risk
Analysis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England, ISBN 9781108348157, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108425056, 2021. a, b, c, d
Barbato, M., Petrini, F., Unnikrishnan, V. U., and Ciampoli, M.:
Performance-Based Hurricane Engineering (PBHE) framework, Struct. Safe., 45, 24–35, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.STRUSAFE.2013.07.002, 2013. a
Bartles, M., Brauer, T., Ho, D., Fleming, M., Karlovits, G., Pak, J., Van, N., and Willis, J.: HEC-HMS Hydrologic Modeling System User’s Manual, Tech. rep., USACE, https://www.hec.usace.army.mil/confluence/hmsdocs/hmsum/4.9,
last access: 8 April 2022. a
Bartolucci, F. and Scaccia, L.: The use of mixtures for dealing with
non-normal regression errors, Comput. Stat. Data Anal., 48, 821–834, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2004.04.005, 2005. a
Bass, B. and Bedient, P.: Surrogate modeling of joint flood risk across
coastal watersheds, J. Hydrol., 558, 159–173, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.01.014, 2018. a
Bates, P. D. and De Roo, A.: A simple raster-based model for flood inundation
simulation, J. Hydrol., 236, 54–77, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00278-X, 2000. a, b
Bates, P. D., Quinn, N., Sampson, C., Smith, A., Wing, O. E. J., Sosa, J., Savage, J., Olcese, G., Neal, J., Schumann, G., Giustarini, L., Coxon, G., Porter, J. R., Amodeo, M. F., Chu, Z., Lewis-Gruss, S., Freeman, N. B., Houser, T., Delgado, M., Hamidi, A., Bolliger, I., McCusker, K. E., Emanuel, K., Ferreira, C. M., Khalid, A., Haigh, I. D., Couasnon, A., Kopp, R. E., Hsiang, S., and Krajewski, W. F.: Combined modelling of US fluvial, pluvial and coastal flood hazard under current and future climates, Water Resour. Res., 57, e2020WR028673, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028673, 2020. a
Bowers, C.: Performance-based Atmospheric River Analysis (PARRA) Framework: Supplemental Code Release (v1.0.2), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6354880, 2022. a
Brunner, G. W.: HEC-RAS 6.0 Hydraulic Reference Manual, Tech. rep., USACE – US Army Corps of Engineers, Davis, CA, https://www.hec.usace.army.mil/confluence/rasdocs/ras1dtechref/latest (last access: 6 April 2022), 2020. a
Cao, Q., Mehran, A., Ralph, F. M., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: The Role of
Hydrological Initial Conditions on Atmospheric River Floods in the Russian
River Basin, J. Hydrometeorol., 20, 1667–1686, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-19-0030.1, 2019. a
CEIWR-HEC: HEC-FIA Flood Impact Analysis User's Manual, Tech. rep., USACE,
https://www.hec.usace.army.mil/confluence/fiadocs (last access: 8 April 2022), 2012. a
CEIWR-HEC: HEC-FDA Flood Damage Reduction Analysis User's Manual, Tech. rep., USACE, https://www.hec.usace.army.mil/software/hec-fda/documentation.aspx
(last access: 8 April 2022), 2016. a
Chavez, N.: Flooding in Sonoma County causes estimated $155 million in
damage, https://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/news/flooding-in-sonoma-county-causes-estimated-155-million-
(last access: 6 April 2022), 2019. a, b, c
Chen, X., Leung, L. R., Gao, Y., Liu, Y., Wigmosta, M., and Richmond, M.:
Predictability of Extreme Precipitation in Western U.S. Watersheds Based on
Atmospheric River Occurrence, Intensity, and Duration, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 11693–11701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079831, 2018. a
Ciampoli, M., Petrini, F., and Augusti, G.: Performance-Based Wind
Engineering: Towards a general procedure, Struct. Safe., 33, 367–378,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.STRUSAFE.2011.07.001, 2011. a
Corringham, T. W., Ralph, F. M., Gershunov, A., Cayan, D. R., and Talbot, C. A.: Atmospheric rivers drive flood damages in the western United States, Sci. Adv., 5, eaax463, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax4631, 2019. a, b, c
County of Sonoma: 1-meter Bare Earth DEM, https://sonomavegmap.org/data-downloads/ (last access: 8 April 2022), 2014. a
County of Sonoma: County Of Sonoma Agenda Item Summary Report, Tech. rep.,
Board of Supervisors, https://sonoma-county.granicus.com/MetaViewer.php?view_id=3&clip_id=702&meta_id=217967
(last access: 6 April 2022), 2017a. a
Crameri, F., Shephard, G. E., and Heron, P. J.: The misuse of colour in
science communication, Nat. Commun., 11, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19160-7, 2020. a
De Cicco, L. A., Lorenz, D., Hirsch, R. M., Watkins, W., and Johnson, M.: dataRetrieval: R packages for discovering and retrieving water data available from U.S. federal hydrologic web services, USGS [code], https://doi.org/10.5066/P9X4L3GE, 2021. a, b
Dominguez, F., Dall'erba, S., Huang, S., Avelino, A., Mehran, A., Hu, H.,
Schmidt, A., Schick, L. J., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Tracking an atmospheric
river in a warmer climate: from water vapor to economic impacts, Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 249–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-249-2018, 2018. a
Felder, G., Gómez-Navarro, J. J., Zischg, A. P., Raible, C. C.,
Röthlisberger, V., Bozhinova, D., Martius, O., and Weingartner, R.: From global circulation to local flood loss: Coupling models across the scales, Sci. Total Environ., 635, 1225–1239, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.170, 2018. a, b
Flint, M. M., Baker, J. W., and Billington, S. L.: A modular framework for
performance-based durability engineering: From exposure to impacts, Struct. Safe., 50, 78–93, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2014.03.003, 2014. a
Gelaro, R., McCarty, W., Suárez, M. J., Todling, R., Molod, A., Takacs,
L., Randles, C. A., Darmenov, A., Bosilovich, M. G., Reichle, R., Wargan, K.,
Coy, L., Cullather, R., Draper, C., Akella, S., Buchard, V., Conaty, A.,
da Silva, A. M., Gu, W., Kim, G. K., Koster, R., Lucchesi, R., Merkova, D.,
Nielsen, J. E., Partyka, G., Pawson, S., Putman, W., Rienecker, M., Schubert,
S. D., Sienkiewicz, M., and Zhao, B.: The modern-era retrospective analysis
for research and applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), J. Climate, 30, 5419–5454, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0758.1, 2017. a
Gerl, T., Kreibich, H., Franco, G., Marechal, D., and Schröter, K.: A
Review of Flood Loss Models as Basis for Harmonization and Benchmarking, PLoS ONE, 11, e0159791, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0159791, 2016. a
Grossi, P. and Kunreuther, H. (Eds.): Catastrophe Modeling: A New Approach to
Managing Risk, Springer, ISBN 9780387231297, 2005. a
Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., Clemesha, R. E. S., Shulgina, T., Subramanian, A. C., and Ralph, F. M.: Circulation Drivers of Atmospheric Rivers at the
North American West Coast, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 12576–12584, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079249, 2018. a
Guo, Q., Shi, K., Jia, Z., and Jeffers, A. E.: Probabilistic Evaluation of
Structural Fire Resistance, Fire Technol., 49, 793–811, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10694-012-0293-6, 2013. a
Huang, X., Swain, D. L., Walton, D. B., Stevenson, S., and Hall, A. D.:
Simulating and Evaluating Atmospheric River-Induced Precipitation Extremes
Along the U.S. Pacific Coast: Case Studies From 1980–2017, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2019JD031554, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031554, 2020. a
Konrad, C. P. and Dettinger, M. D.: Flood Runoff in Relation to Water Vapor
Transport by Atmospheric Rivers Over the Western United States, 1949–2015,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 11456–11462, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075399, 2017. a
Krawinkler, H.: Challenges and progress in performance-based earthquake
engineering, in: International Seminar on Seismic Engineering for Tomorrow, 26 November 1999, Tokyo, Japan,
http://www-ext.lnec.pt/projects/SPARC/Krawinkler_1999.pdf (last access: 6 April 2022), 1999. a
Lamjiri, M. A., Dettinger, M. D., Ralph, F. M., Oakley, N., and Rutz, J. J.:
Hourly Analyses of the Large Storms and Atmospheric Rivers that Provide Most
of California’s Precipitation in Only 10 to 100 Hours per Year, San
Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science, 16,
https://doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2018v16iss4art1, 2018. a, b
Lavers, D. A., Ingleby, N. B., Subramanian, A. C., Richardson, D. S., Ralph, F. M., Doyle, J. D., Reynolds, C. A., Torn, R. D., Rodwell, M. J., Tallapragada, V., and Pappenberger, F. : Forecast errors and uncertainties in
atmospheric rivers, Weather Forecast., 35, 1447–1458,
https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0049.1, 2020. a
Martin, A. C., Ralph, F. M., Demirdjian, R., DeHaan, L., Weihs, R., Helly, J., Reynolds, D., and Iacobellis, S.: Evaluation of atmospheric river
predictions by the WRF model using aircraft and regional mesonet observations
of orographic precipitation and its forcing, J. Hydrometeorol., 19, 1097–1113, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0098.1, 2018. a
Merz, B., Kreibich, H., Thieken, A., and Schmidtke, R.: Estimation uncertainty of direct monetary flood damage to buildings, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 153–163, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-4-153-2004, 2004. a
Nardi, K. M., Barnes, E. A., and Ralph, F. M.: Assessment of Numerical Weather Prediction Model Reforecasts of the Occurrence, Intensity, and Location of Atmospheric Rivers along the West Coast of North America, Mon. Weather Rev., 146, 3343–3362, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0060.1, 2018. a
NRC: Reactor Safety Study. An Assessment of Accident Risks in US Commercial
Nuclear Power Plants. Executive Summary, Tech. rep., WASH-1400, United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission, https://doi.org/10.2172/7134131, 1975. a, b
Pinelli, J.-P. and Barbato, M.: A comparison study of Catastrophe Modeling vs. Performance-based design, in: 13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP 2019, 26–30 May 2019 Seoul, South Korea,
https://s-space.snu.ac.kr/bitstream/10371/153316/1/105.pdf (last access: 6 April 2022), 2019. a
Porter, K., Wein, A., Alpers, C., Baez, A., Barnard, P., Carter, J., Corsi, A., Costner, J., Cox, D., Das, T., Dettinger, M. D., Done, J., Eadie, C., Eymann, M., Ferris, J., Gunturi, P., Hughes, M., Jarrett, R., Johnson, L., Dam Le-Griffen, H., Mitchell, D., Morman, S., Neiman, P. J., Olsen, A., Perry, S., Plumlee, G., Ralph, F. M., Reynolds, D., Rose, A., Schaefer, K., Serakos, J., Siembieda, W., Stock, J., Strong, D., Sue Wing, I., Tang, A., Thomas, P., Topping, K., and Wills, C.: Overview of the ARkStorm scenario, Tech. rep., US Geological Survey, Reston, VA, https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20101312, 2011. a, b, c
Ralph, F. M., Neiman, P. J., Wick, G. A., Gutman, S. I., Dettinger, M. D.,
Cayan, D. R., and White, A. B.: Flooding on California's Russian River: Role
of atmospheric rivers, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L13801, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026689, 2006. a
Ralph, F. M., Dettinger, M. D., Cairns, M. M., Galarneau, T. J., and Eylander, J.: Defining “Atmospheric river”: How the glossary of meteorology helped resolve a debate, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 99, 837–839, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0157.1, 2018. a
Ralph, F. M., Rutz, J. J., Cordeira, J. M., Dettinger, M. D., Anderson, M.,
Reynolds, D., Schick, L. J., and Smallcomb, C.: A scale to characterize the
strength and impacts of atmospheric rivers, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 100, 269–289, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0023.1, 2019. a, b, c, d
Razavi, S., Tolson, B. A., and Burn, D. H.: Review of surrogate modeling in
water resources, Water Resour. Res., 48, W07401, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR011527, 2012. a
Recht, H.: censusapi: Retrieve Data from the Census APIs, CRAN [code], https://cran.r-project.org/package=censusapi (last access: 8 April 2022), 2020. a
Rogers, P.: Guerneville floods more than anywhere in the Bay Area. Why can't
it be fixed?,
https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/03/04/why-does-guerneville-flood-so-much-and-why-cant-it-be-fixed/
(last access: 6 April 2022), 2019. a
Rutz, J. J., Steenburgh, W. J., and Ralph, F. M.: Climatological characteristics of atmospheric rivers and their inland penetration over the western united states, Mon. Weather Rev., 142, 905–921, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00168.1, 2014. a
Savage, J. T. S., Bates, P. D., Freer, J., Neal, J., and Aronica, G.: When
does spatial resolution become spurious in probabilistic flood inundation
predictions?, Hydrol. Process., 30, 2014–2032, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10749, 2016. a
Shields, C. A., Rutz, J. J., Leung, L.-Y., Ralph, F. M., Wehner, M., Kawzenuk, B., Lora, J. M., McClenny, E., Osborne, T., Payne, A. E., Ullrich, P., Gershunov, A., Goldenson, N., Guan, B., Qian, Y., Ramos, A. M., Sarangi, C., Sellars, S., Gorodetskaya, I., Kashinath, K., Kurlin, V., Mahoney, K., Muszynski, G., Pierce, R., Subramanian, A. C., Tome, R., Waliser, D., Walton, D., Wick, G., Wilson, A., Lavers, D., Prabhat, Collow, A., Krishnan, H., Magnusdottir, G., and Nguyen, P.: Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP): project goals and experimental design, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2455–2474, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2455-2018, 2018.
a
Soffritti, G. and Galimberti, G.: Multivariate linear regression with
non-normal errors: A solution based on mixture models, Stat. Comput., 21, 523–536, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-010-9190-3, 2011. a
Sonoma County: Sonoma County Hazard Mitigation Plan: Flood Hazards, Tech. rep., https://sonomacounty.ca.gov/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=2147539000
(last access: 28 May 2020), 2017. a
Uhe, P., Mitchell, D., Bates, P. D., Addor, N., Neal, J., and Beck, H. E.: Model cascade from meteorological drivers to river flood hazard: Flood-cascade v1.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4865–4890, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4865-2021, 2021. a
USGS: The National Map (TNM) Download v2.0, USGS [dat aset],
https://apps.nationalmap.gov/downloader/, last access: 8 April 2022. a
van den Dool, H., Huang, J., and Fan, Y.: Performance and analysis of the constructed analogue method applied to U.S. soil moisture over 1981–2001, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 8617, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002jd003114, 2003. a
Waliser, D. E. and Guan, B.: Extreme winds and precipitation during landfall of atmospheric rivers, Nat. Geosci., 10, 179–183, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2894, 2017. a
Walker, K.: tigris: Load Census TIGER/Line Shapefiles, CRAN [code], https://cran.r-project.org/package=tigris (last access: 8 April 2022), 2021. a
Wing, O. E. J., Bates, P. D., Sampson, C. C., Smith, A. M., Johnson, K. A., and Erickson, T. A.: Validation of a 30 m resolution flood hazard model of the conterminous United States, Water Resour. Res., 53, 7968–7986,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020917, 2017. a
Wing, O. E. J., Pinter, N., Bates, P. D., and Kousky, C.: New insights into US flood vulnerability revealed from flood insurance big data, Nat. Commun., 11, 1444, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15264-2, 2020. a, b, c, d
Zhu, Y. and Newell, R. E.: A proposed algorithm for moisture fluxes from
atmospheric rivers, Mon. Weather Rev., 126, 725–735,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<0725:APAFMF>2.0.CO;2, 1998. a
Short summary
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) cause significant flooding on the US west coast. We present a new Performance-based Atmospheric River Risk Analysis (PARRA) framework that connects models of atmospheric forcings, hydrologic impacts, and economic consequences to better estimate losses from AR-induced river flooding. We apply the PARRA framework to a case study in Sonoma County, CA, USA, and show that the framework can quantify the potential benefit of flood mitigation actions such as home elevation.
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) cause significant flooding on the US west coast. We present a new...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint