Articles | Volume 22, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1109-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1109-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Apr 2022
Research article |
| 01 Apr 2022
| 01 Apr 2022
Extreme-coastal-water-level estimation and projection: a comparison of statistical methods
Maria Francesca Caruso
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of Padua, 35131, Padua, Italy
Marco Marani
Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of Padua, 35131, Padua, Italy
Earth and Climate Sciences Division, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
Related authors
No articles found.
Alice Puppin, Davide Tognin, Massimiliano Ghinassi, Erica Franceschinis, Nicola Realdon, Marco Marani, and Andrea D'Alpaos
Biogeosciences, 21, 2937–2954, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2937-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2937-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims at inspecting organic matter dynamics affecting the survival and carbon sink potential of salt marshes, which are valuable yet endangered wetland environments. Measuring the organic matter content in marsh soils and its relationship with environmental variables, we observed that the organic matter accumulation varies at different scales, and it is driven by the interplay between sediment supply and vegetation, which are affected, in turn, by marine and fluvial influences.
Guillaume Goodwin, Marco Marani, Sonia Silvestri, Luca Carniello, and Andrea D'Alpaos
Biogeosciences, 20, 4551–4576, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4551-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4551-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Seagrass meadows are an emblematic coastal habitat. Their sensitivity to environmental change means that it is essential to monitor their evolution closely. However, high costs make this endeavor a technical challenge. Here, we used machine learning to map seagrass meadows in 148 satellite images in the Venice Lagoon, Italy. We found that adding information such as depth of the seabed and known seagrass location improved our capacity to map temporal change in seagrass habitat.
T. Blount, S. Silvestri, M. Marani, and A. D’Alpaos
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLVIII-1-W1-2023, 57–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-1-W1-2023-57-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-1-W1-2023-57-2023, 2023
Eleonora Dallan, Francesco Marra, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Marani, Giuseppe Formetta, Christoph Schär, and Marco Borga
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1133–1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Convection-permitting climate models could represent future changes in extreme short-duration precipitation, which is critical for risk management. We use a non-asymptotic statistical method to estimate extremes from 10 years of simulations in an orographically complex area. Despite overall good agreement with rain gauges, the observed decrease of hourly extremes with elevation is not fully represented by the model. Climate model adjustment methods should consider the role of orography.
Pietro Teatini, Cristina Da Lio, Luigi Tosi, Alessandro Bergamasco, Stefano Pasqual, Paolo Simonini, Veronica Girardi, Paolo Zorzan, Claudia Zoccarato, Massimiliano Ferronato, Marcella Roner, Marco Marani, Andrea D'Alpaos, Simonetta Cola, and Giuseppe Zambon
Proc. IAHS, 382, 345–351, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-345-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-345-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
An in-situ loading test was carried out in the Lazzaretto Nuovo salt-marsh in the Venice Lagoon, Italy. The test was aimed at characterizing the geotechnical properties of soils forming the marsh sedimentary body deposits. In fact porosity and compressibility are of paramount importance to quantify consolidation versus accretion and relative sea level rise. The fate of coastal marshlands in the next future will strongly depend of these processes.
S. R. Hosseini, M. Scaioni, and M. Marani
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-3, 527–532, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-3-527-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-3-527-2018, 2018
Xing Chen, Mukesh Kumar, Stefano Basso, and Marco Marani
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-65, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-65, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
Related subject area
Hydrological Hazards
Precursors and pathways: dynamically informed extreme event forecasting demonstrated on the historic Emilia-Romagna 2023 flood
Demonstrating the use of UNSEEN climate data for hydrological applications: case studies for extreme floods and droughts in England
Exploring the use of seasonal forecasts to adapt flood insurance premiums
Are 2D shallow-water solvers fast enough for early flood warning? A comparative assessment on the 2021 Ahr valley flood event
Water depth estimate and flood extent enhancement for satellite-based inundation maps
Probabilistic flood inundation mapping through copula Bayesian multi-modeling of precipitation products
Flood occurrence and impact models for socioeconomic applications over Canada and the United States
Model-based assessment of climate change impact on inland flood risk at the German North Sea coast caused by compounding storm tide and precipitation events
An improved dynamic bidirectional coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic model for efficient flood inundation prediction
Quantifying hazard resilience by modeling infrastructure recovery as a resource-constrained project scheduling problem
Hydrometeorological controls of and social response to the 22 October 2019 catastrophic flash flood in Catalonia, north-eastern Spain
A downward-counterfactual analysis of flash floods in Germany
Hyper-resolution flood hazard mapping at the national scale
Compound droughts under climate change in Switzerland
Brief communication: SWM – stochastic weather model for precipitation-related hazard assessments using ERA5-Land data
Text mining uncovers the unique dynamics of socio-economic impacts of the 2018–2022 multi-year drought in Germany
The value of multi-source data for improved flood damage modelling with explicit input data uncertainty treatment: INSYDE 2.0
Risk of compound flooding substantially increases in the future Mekong River delta
Limited effect of the confluence angle and tributary gradient on Alpine confluence morphodynamics under intense sediment loads
Coupling WRF with HEC-HMS and WRF-Hydro for flood forecasting in typical mountainous catchments of northern China
Does a convection-permitting regional climate model bring new perspectives on the projection of Mediterranean floods?
Added value of seasonal hindcasts to create UK hydrological drought storylines
Flash flood detection via copula-based intensity–duration–frequency curves: evidence from Jamaica
Algorithmically Detected Rain-on-Snow Flood Events in Different Climate Datasets: A Case Study of the Susquehanna River Basin
Seasonal forecasting of local-scale soil moisture droughts with Global BROOK90: a case study of the European drought of 2018
How to mitigate flood events similar to the 1979 catastrophic floods in the lower Tagus
Review article: Drought as a continuum: memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems
Assessing LISFLOOD-FP with the next-generation digital elevation model FABDEM using household survey and remote sensing data in the Central Highlands of Vietnam
CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Modelling Experiment): a new model for geo-hydrological hazard assessment at the basin scale
Current and future rainfall-driven flood risk from hurricanes in Puerto Rico under 1.5 and 2 °C climate change
Modelling hazards impacting the flow regime in the Hranice Karst due to the proposed Skalička Dam
Using integrated hydrological–hydraulic modelling and global data sources to analyse the February 2023 floods in the Umbeluzi Catchment (Mozambique)
Impact-based flood forecasting in the Greater Horn of Africa
Floods in the Pyrenees: A global view through a regional database
Brief communication: A first hydrological investigation of extreme August 2023 floods in Slovenia, Europe
Multivariate regression trees as an “explainable machine learning” approach to explore relationships between hydroclimatic characteristics and agricultural and hydrological drought severity: case of study Cesar River basin
Review article: Towards improved drought prediction in the Mediterranean region – modeling approaches and future directions
Assessing typhoon-induced compound flood drivers: a case study in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Assessing the ability of a new seamless short-range ensemble rainfall product to anticipate flash floods in the French Mediterranean area
Sentinel-1-based analysis of the severe flood over Pakistan 2022
Sensitivity analysis of erosion on the landward slope of an earthen flood defense located in southern France submitted to wave overtopping
Transferability of machine learning-based modeling frameworks across flood events for hindcasting maximum river flood depths in coastal watersheds
Better prepared but less resilient: the paradoxical impact of frequent flood experience on adaptive behavior and resilience
Assessing the spatial spread–skill of ensemble flood maps with remote-sensing observations
An integrated modeling approach to evaluate the impacts of nature-based solutions of flood mitigation across a small watershed in the southeast United States
Indicator-to-impact links to help improve agricultural drought preparedness in Thailand
The potential of open-access data for flood estimations: uncovering inundation hotspots in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, through a normalized flood severity index
Analyzing the informative value of alternative hazard indicators for monitoring drought hazard for human water supply and river ecosystems at the global scale
A methodological framework for the evaluation of short-range flash-flood hydrometeorological forecasts at the event scale
Hydrological drought forecasting under a changing environment in the Luanhe River basin
Joshua Dorrington, Marta Wenta, Federico Grazzini, Linus Magnusson, Frederic Vitart, and Christian M. Grams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2995–3012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall is the leading weather-related source of damages in Europe, but it is still difficult to predict on long timescales. A recent example of this was the devastating floods in the Italian region of Emiglia Romagna in May 2023. We present perspectives based on large-scale dynamical information that allows us to better understand and predict such events.
Alison L. Kay, Nick Dunstone, Gillian Kay, Victoria A. Bell, and Jamie Hannaford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2953–2970, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological hazards affect people and ecosystems, but extremes are not fully understood due to limited observations. A large climate ensemble and simple hydrological model are used to assess unprecedented but plausible floods and droughts. The chain gives extreme flows outside the observed range: summer 2022 ~ 28 % lower and autumn 2023 ~ 42 % higher. Spatial dependence and temporal persistence are analysed. Planning for such events could help water supply resilience and flood risk management.
Viet Dung Nguyen, Jeroen Aerts, Max Tesselaar, Wouter Botzen, Heidi Kreibich, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2923–2937, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explored how seasonal flood forecasts could enhance insurance premium accuracy. Insurers traditionally rely on historical data, yet climate fluctuations influence flood risk. We employed a method that predicts seasonal floods to adjust premiums accordingly. Our findings showed significant year-to-year variations in flood risk and premiums, underscoring the importance of adaptability. Despite limitations, this research aids insurers in preparing for evolving risks.
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Heiko Apel, and Daniel Caviedes-Voullième
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2857–2874, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Early warning is essential to minimise the impact of flash floods. We explore the use of highly detailed flood models to simulate the 2021 flood event in the lower Ahr valley (Germany). Using very high-resolution models resolving individual streets and buildings, we produce detailed, quantitative, and actionable information for early flood warning systems. Using state-of-the-art computational technology, these models can guarantee very fast forecasts which allow for sufficient time to respond.
Andrea Betterle and Peter Salamon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2817–2836, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2817-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2817-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study proposes a new framework, named FLEXTH, to estimate flood water depth and improve satellite-based flood monitoring using topographical data. FLEXTH is readily available as a computer code, offering a practical and scalable solution for estimating flood depth quickly and systematically over large areas. The methodology can reduce the impacts of floods and enhance emergency response efforts, particularly where resources are limited.
Francisco Javier Gomez, Keighobad Jafarzadegan, Hamed Moftakhari, and Hamid Moradkhani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2647–2665, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2647-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2647-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study utilizes the global copula Bayesian model averaging technique for accurate and reliable flood modeling, especially in coastal regions. By integrating multiple precipitation datasets within this framework, we can effectively address sources of error in each dataset, leading to the generation of probabilistic flood maps. The creation of these probabilistic maps is essential for disaster preparedness and mitigation in densely populated areas susceptible to extreme weather events.
Manuel Grenier, Mathieu Boudreault, David A. Carozza, Jérémie Boudreault, and Sébastien Raymond
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2577–2595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2577-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2577-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling floods at the street level for large countries like Canada and the United States is difficult and very costly. However, many applications do not necessarily require that level of detail. As a result, we present a flood modelling framework built with artificial intelligence for socioeconomic studies like trend and scenarios analyses. We find for example that an increase of 10 % in average precipitation yields an increase in displaced population of 18 % in Canada and 14 % in the US.
Helge Bormann, Jenny Kebschull, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2559–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Inland flooding is threatening coastal lowlands. If rainfall and storm surges coincide, the risk of inland flooding increases. We examine how such compound events are influenced by climate change. Data analysis and model-based scenario analysis show that climate change induces an increasing frequency and intensity of compounding precipitation and storm tide events along the North Sea coast. Overload of inland drainage systems will also increase if no timely adaptation measures are taken.
Yanxia Shen, Zhenduo Zhu, Qi Zhou, and Chunbo Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2315–2330, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present an improved Multigrid Dynamical Bidirectional Coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic Model (IM-DBCM) with two major improvements: (1) automated non-uniform mesh generation based on the D-infinity algorithm was implemented to identify flood-prone areas where high-resolution inundation conditions are needed, and (2) ghost cells and bilinear interpolation were implemented to improve numerical accuracy in interpolating variables between the coarse and fine grids. The improved model was reliable.
Taylor Glen Johnson, Jorge Leandro, and Divine Kwaku Ahadzie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2285–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Reliance on infrastructure creates vulnerabilities to disruptions caused by natural hazards. To assess the impacts of natural hazards on the performance of infrastructure, we present a framework for quantifying resilience and develop a model of recovery based upon an application of project scheduling under resource constraints. The resilience framework and recovery model were applied in a case study to assess the resilience of building infrastructure to flooding hazards in Accra, Ghana.
Arnau Amengual, Romu Romero, María Carmen Llasat, Alejandro Hermoso, and Montserrat Llasat-Botija
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2215–2242, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
On 22 October 2019, the Francolí River basin experienced a heavy precipitation event, resulting in a catastrophic flash flood. Few studies comprehensively address both the physical and human dimensions and their interrelations during extreme flash flooding. This research takes a step forward towards filling this gap in knowledge by examining the alignment among all these factors.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2147–2164, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To identify flash flood potential in Germany, we shifted the most extreme rainfall events from the last 22 years systematically across Germany and simulated the consequent runoff reaction. Our results show that almost all areas in Germany have not seen the worst-case scenario of flood peaks within the last 22 years. With a slight spatial change of historical rainfall events, flood peaks of a factor of 2 or more would be achieved for most areas. The results can aid disaster risk management.
Günter Blöschl, Andreas Buttinger-Kreuzhuber, Daniel Cornel, Julia Eisl, Michael Hofer, Markus Hollaus, Zsolt Horváth, Jürgen Komma, Artem Konev, Juraj Parajka, Norbert Pfeifer, Andreas Reithofer, José Salinas, Peter Valent, Roman Výleta, Jürgen Waser, Michael H. Wimmer, and Heinz Stiefelmeyer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2071–2091, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2071-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2071-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A methodology of regional flood hazard mapping is proposed, based on data in Austria, which combines automatic methods with manual interventions to maximise efficiency and to obtain estimation accuracy similar to that of local studies. Flood discharge records from 781 stations are used to estimate flood hazard patterns of a given return period at a resolution of 2 m over a total stream length of 38 000 km. The hazard maps are used for civil protection, risk awareness and insurance purposes.
Christoph Nathanael von Matt, Regula Muelchi, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1975–2001, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The simultaneous occurrence of meteorological (precipitation), agricultural (soil moisture), and hydrological (streamflow) drought can lead to augmented impacts. By analysing drought indices derived from the newest climate scenarios for Switzerland (CH2018, Hydro-CH2018), we show that with climate change the concurrence of all drought types will increase in all studied regions of Switzerland. Our results stress the benefits of and need for both mitigation and adaptation measures at early stages.
Melody Gwyneth Whitehead and Mark Stephen Bebbington
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1929–1935, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation-driven hazards including floods, landslides, and lahars can be catastrophic and difficult to forecast due to high uncertainty around future weather patterns. This work presents a stochastic weather model that produces statistically similar (realistic) rainfall over long time periods at minimal computational cost. These data provide much-needed inputs for hazard simulations to support long-term, time and spatially varying risk assessments.
Jan Sodoge, Christian Kuhlicke, Miguel D. Mahecha, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1757–1777, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1757-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We delved into the socio-economic impacts of the 2018–2022 drought in Germany. We derived a dataset covering the impacts of droughts in Germany between 2000 and 2022 on sectors such as agriculture and forestry based on newspaper articles. Notably, our study illustrated that the longer drought had a wider reach and more varied effects. We show that dealing with longer droughts requires different plans compared to shorter ones, and it is crucial to be ready for the challenges they bring.
Mario Di Bacco, Daniela Molinari, and Anna Rita Scorzini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1681–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1681-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
INSYDE 2.0 is a tool for modelling flood damage to residential buildings. By incorporating ultra-detailed survey and desk-based data, it improves the reliability and informativeness of damage assessments while addressing input data uncertainties.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Tran Ba, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, and Joël J.-M. Hirschi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-949, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-949, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We look at how compound flooding from the combination of river flooding and storm tide (storm surge plus astronomical tide) may be changing over time due to climate change, with a case study of the Mekong River delta. We found that future compound flooding has potential to flood the region more extensively and be longer lasting than compound floods today. This is useful to know because it means that managers of deltas such as the Mekong can assess options for improving existing flood defences.
Théo St. Pierre Ostrander, Thomé Kraus, Bruno Mazzorana, Johannes Holzner, Andrea Andreoli, Francesco Comiti, and Bernhard Gems
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1607–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1607-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1607-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mountain river confluences are hazardous during localized flooding events. A physical model was used to determine the dominant controls over mountain confluences. Contrary to lowland confluences, in mountain regions, the channel discharges and (to a lesser degree) the tributary sediment concentration control morphological patterns. Applying conclusions drawn from lowland confluences could misrepresent depositional and erosional patterns and the related flood hazard at mountain river confluences.
Sheik Umar Jam-Jalloh, Jia Liu, Yicheng Wang, and Yuchen Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-20, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-20, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Explore our paper on improving flood prediction using advanced weather models. We coupled the WRF model with WRF-Hydro and HEC-HMS to enhance accuracy. Discover how our findings contribute to adaptive atmospheric-hydrologic systems for effective flood forecasting.
Nils Poncet, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Yves Tramblay, Guillaume Thirel, Humberto Vergara, Jonathan Gourley, and Antoinette Alias
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1163–1183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) are now available to better simulate rainstorm events leading to flash floods. In this study, two hydrological models are compared to simulate floods in a Mediterranean basin, showing a better ability of the CPM to reproduce flood peaks compared to coarser-resolution climate models. Future projections are also different, with a projected increase for the most severe floods and a potential decrease for the most frequent events.
Wilson C. H. Chan, Nigel W. Arnell, Geoff Darch, Katie Facer-Childs, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Maliko Tanguy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1065–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The most recent drought in the UK was declared in summer 2022. We pooled a large sample of plausible winters from seasonal hindcasts and grouped them into four clusters based on their atmospheric circulation configurations. Drought storylines representative of what the drought could have looked like if winter 2022/23 resembled each winter circulation storyline were created to explore counterfactuals of how bad the 2022 drought could have been over winter 2022/23 and beyond.
Dino Collalti, Nekeisha Spencer, and Eric Strobl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 873–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-873-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-873-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk of extreme rainfall events causing floods is likely increasing with climate change. Flash floods, which follow immediately after extreme rainfall, are particularly difficult to forecast and assess. We develop a decision rule for flash flood classification with data on all incidents between 2001 and 2018 in Jamaica with the statistical copula method. This decision rule tells us for any rainfall event of a certain duration how intense it has to be to likely trigger a flash flood.
Colin M. Zarzycki, Benjamin D. Ascher, Alan M. Rhoades, and Rachel R. McCrary
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3094, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3094, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed an automated workflow to detect rain-on-snow events, which cause flooding in the northeastern U.S., in climate data. Analyzing the Susquehanna River Basin, this technique identified known events affecting river flow. Comparing four gridded datasets revealed variations in event frequency and severity, driven by different snowmelt and runoff estimates. This highlights the need for accurate climate data in flood management and risk prediction for these compound extremes.
Ivan Vorobevskii, Thi Thanh Luong, and Rico Kronenberg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 681–697, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a new version of a framework which allows us to model water balance components at any site on a local scale. Compared with the first version, the second incorporates new datasets used to set up and force the model. In particular, we highlight the ability of the framework to provide seasonal forecasts. This gives potential stakeholders (farmers, foresters, policymakers, etc.) the possibility to forecast, for example, soil moisture drought and thus apply the necessary measures.
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Alexandre M. Ramos, José González-Cao, Orlando García-Feal, Cristina Catita, Moncho Gómez-Gesteira, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 609–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The present study focuses on an in-depth analysis of floods in the lower section of the Tagus River from a hydrodynamic perspective by means of the Iber+ numerical model and on the development of dam operating strategies to mitigate flood episodes using the exceptional floods of February 1979 as a benchmark. The results corroborate the model's capability to evaluate floods in the study area and confirm the effectiveness of the proposed strategies to reduce flood impact in the lower Tagus valley.
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben Weesie, Valentin Aich, Juan P. Boisier, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Yiheng Du, Mauricio Galleguillos, René Garreaud, Monica Ionita, Sina Khatami, Johanna K. L. Koehler, Charles H. Luce, Shreedhar Maskey, Heidi D. Mendoza, Moses N. Mwangi, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Tirthankar Roy, Robert Stefanski, Patricia Trambauer, Elizabeth A. Koebele, Giulia Vico, and Micha Werner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-421, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-421, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought is a creeping phenomenon, but it is often still analysed and managed like an event without taking into consideration what happened before and after. In this paper we review the literature and discuss five cases, where drought, its impacts and responses develop differently over time. We look at the hydrological, ecological and social system and their connections. And we provide suggestions for further research and for monitoring, modelling and management.
Laurence Hawker, Jeffrey Neal, James Savage, Thomas Kirkpatrick, Rachel Lord, Yanos Zylberberg, Andre Groeger, Truong Dang Thuy, Sean Fox, Felix Agyemang, and Pham Khanh Nam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 539–566, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a global flood model built using a new terrain data set and evaluated in the Central Highlands of Vietnam.
Andrea Abbate, Leonardo Mancusi, Francesco Apadula, Antonella Frigerio, Monica Papini, and Laura Longoni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 501–537, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Modelling Experiment) is a new physically based and spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model. The main novelties consist of reproducing rainfall-induced geo-hydrological hazards such as shallow landslide, debris flow and watershed erosion through a multi-hazard approach. CRHyME was written in Python, works at a high spatial and temporal resolution, and is a tool suitable for quantifying extreme rainfall consequences at the basin scale.
Leanne Archer, Jeffrey Neal, Paul Bates, Emily Vosper, Dereka Carroll, Jeison Sosa, and Daniel Mitchell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 375–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We model hurricane-rainfall-driven flooding to assess how the number of people exposed to flooding changes in Puerto Rico under the 1.5 and 2 °C Paris Agreement goals. Our analysis suggests 8 %–10 % of the population is currently exposed to flooding on average every 5 years, increasing by 2 %–15 % and 1 %–20 % at 1.5 and 2 °C. This has implications for adaptation to more extreme flooding in Puerto Rico and demonstrates that 1.5 °C climate change carries a significant increase in risk.
Miroslav Spano and Jaromir Riha
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-21, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-21, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Our study examines how building the Skalička Dam near the Hranice Karst affects local groundwater. We used advanced modeling to analyze two dam layouts: lateral and through-flow reservoirs. Results show the through-flow variant significantly alters water levels and mineral water discharge, while the lateral layout has less impact.
Luis Cea, Manuel Álvarez, and Jerónimo Puertas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 225–243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mozambique is highly exposed to the impact of floods. To reduce flood damage, it is necessary to develop mitigation measures. Hydrological software is a very useful tool for that purpose, since it allows for a precise quantification of flood hazard in different scenarios. We present a methodology to quantify flood hazard in data-scarce regions, using freely available data and software, and we show its potential by analysing the flood event that took place in the Umbeluzi Basin in February 2023.
Lorenzo Alfieri, Andrea Libertino, Lorenzo Campo, Francesco Dottori, Simone Gabellani, Tatiana Ghizzoni, Alessandro Masoero, Lauro Rossi, Roberto Rudari, Nicola Testa, Eva Trasforini, Ahmed Amdihun, Jully Ouma, Luca Rossi, Yves Tramblay, Huan Wu, and Marco Massabò
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 199–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes Flood-PROOFS East Africa, an impact-based flood forecasting system for the Greater Horn of Africa. It is based on hydrological simulations, inundation mapping, and estimation of population and assets exposed to upcoming river floods. The system supports duty officers in African institutions in the daily monitoring of hydro-meteorological disasters. A first evaluation shows the system performance for the catastrophic floods in the Nile River basin in summer 2020.
María Carmen Llasat, Montserrat Llasat-Botija, Erika Pardo, Raül Marcos-Matamoros, and Marc Lemus-Canovas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-206, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-206, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is leading in the Pyrenees Massif to a change in socioeconomic increasing their sensitivity to natural risks such as floods. However, until now, no systematic study like this one had been carried out that would allow evaluating the frequency, distribution and main meteorological features of these events on a massif scale. In 35 years there have been 181 flood events that have produced 154 fatalities.
Nejc Bezak, Panos Panagos, Leonidas Liakos, and Matjaž Mikoš
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3885–3893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3885-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3885-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme flooding occurred in Slovenia in August 2023. This brief communication examines the main causes, mechanisms and effects of this event. The flood disaster of August 2023 can be described as relatively extreme and was probably the most extreme flood event in Slovenia in recent decades. The economic damage was large and could amount to well over 5 % of Slovenia's annual gross domestic product; the event also claimed three lives.
Ana Paez-Trujilo, Jeffer Cañon, Beatriz Hernandez, Gerald Corzo, and Dimitri Solomatine
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3863–3883, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses a machine learning technique, the multivariate regression tree approach, to assess the hydroclimatic characteristics that govern agricultural and hydrological drought severity. The results show that the employed technique successfully identified the primary drivers of droughts and their critical thresholds. In addition, it provides relevant information to identify the areas most vulnerable to droughts and design strategies and interventions for drought management.
Bouchra Zellou, Nabil El Moçayd, and El Houcine Bergou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3543–3583, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we underscore the critical importance of strengthening drought prediction capabilities in the Mediterranean region. We present an in-depth evaluation of current drought forecasting approaches, encompassing statistical, dynamical, and hybrid statistical–dynamical models, and highlight unexplored research opportunities. Additionally, we suggest viable directions to enhance drought prediction and early warning systems within the area.
Francisco Rodrigues do Amaral, Nicolas Gratiot, Thierry Pellarin, and Tran Anh Tu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3379–3405, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3379-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3379-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose an in-depth analysis of typhoon-induced compound flood drivers in the megacity of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. We use in situ and satellite measurements throughout the event to form a holistic overview of its impact. No evidence of storm surge was found, and peak precipitation presents a 16 h time lag to peak river discharge, which evacuates only 1.5 % of available water. The astronomical tide controls the river level even during the extreme event, and it is the main urban flood driver.
Juliette Godet, Olivier Payrastre, Pierre Javelle, and François Bouttier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3355–3377, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article results from a master's research project which was part of a natural hazards programme developed by the French Ministry of Ecological Transition. The objective of this work was to investigate a possible way to improve the operational flash flood warning service by adding rainfall forecasts upstream of the forecasting chain. The results showed that the tested forecast product, which is new and experimental, has a real added value compared to other classical forecast products.
Florian Roth, Bernhard Bauer-Marschallinger, Mark Edwin Tupas, Christoph Reimer, Peter Salamon, and Wolfgang Wagner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3305–3317, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3305-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3305-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In August and September 2022, millions of people were impacted by a severe flood event in Pakistan. Since many roads and other infrastructure were destroyed, satellite data were the only way of providing large-scale information on the flood's impact. Based on the flood mapping algorithm developed at Technische Universität Wien (TU Wien), we mapped an area of 30 492 km2 that was flooded at least once during the study's time period. This affected area matches about the total area of Belgium.
Clément Houdard, Adrien Poupardin, Philippe Sergent, Abdelkrim Bennabi, and Jena Jeong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3111–3124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3111-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a system able to to predict, knowing the appropriate characteristics of the flood defense structure and sea state, the return periods of potentially dangerous events as well as a ranking of parameters by order of uncertainty.
The model is a combination of statistical and empirical methods that have been applied to a Mediterranean earthen dike. This shows that the most important characteristics of the dyke are its geometrical features, such as its height and slope angles.
Maryam Pakdehi, Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf, Behzad Nazari, and Eunsaem Cho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-152, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-152, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Machine learning (ML) models have growingly received attention for predicting flood events. However, there has been concerns about the transferability of these models (their capability in predicting out-of-sample events). Here, we showed that ML models can be transferable for hindcasting maximum river flood depths across major events (Hurricanes Ida, Isaias, Sandy, and Irene) in coastal watersheds when informed by the spatial distribution of pertinent features and underlying physical processes.
Lisa Köhler, Torsten Masson, Sabrina Köhler, and Christian Kuhlicke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2787–2806, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2787-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2787-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed the impact of flood experience on adaptive behavior and self-reported resilience. The outcomes draw a paradoxical picture: the most experienced people are the most adapted but the least resilient. We find evidence for non-linear relationships between the number of floods experienced and resilience. We contribute to existing knowledge by focusing specifically on the number of floods experienced and extending the rare scientific literature on the influence of experience on resilience.
Helen Hooker, Sarah L. Dance, David C. Mason, John Bevington, and Kay Shelton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2769–2785, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2769-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2769-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ensemble forecasts of flood inundation produce maps indicating the probability of flooding. A new approach is presented to evaluate the spatial performance of an ensemble flood map forecast by comparison against remotely observed flooding extents. This is important for understanding forecast uncertainties and improving flood forecasting systems.
Betina I. Guido, Ioana Popescu, Vidya Samadi, and Biswa Bhattacharya
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2663–2681, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2663-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We used an integrated model to evaluate the impacts of nature-based solutions (NBSs) on flood mitigation across the Little Pee Dee and Lumber River watershed, the Carolinas, US. This area is strongly affected by climatic disasters, which are expected to increase due to climate change and urbanization, so exploring an NBS approach is crucial for adapting to future alterations. Our research found that NBSs can have visible effects on the reduction in hurricane-driven flooding.
Maliko Tanguy, Michael Eastman, Eugene Magee, Lucy J. Barker, Thomas Chitson, Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit, Daniel Goodwin, Jamie Hannaford, Ian Holman, Liwa Pardthaisong, Simon Parry, Dolores Rey Vicario, and Supattra Visessri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2419–2441, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2419-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2419-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts in Thailand are becoming more severe due to climate change. Understanding the link between drought impacts on the ground and drought indicators used in drought monitoring systems can help increase a country's preparedness and resilience to drought. With a focus on agricultural droughts, we derive crop- and region-specific indicator-to-impact links that can form the basis of targeted mitigation actions and an improved drought monitoring and early warning system in Thailand.
Leon Scheiber, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Christian Jordan, Jan Visscher, Hong Quan Nguyen, and Torsten Schlurmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2313–2332, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2313-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical models are increasingly important for assessing urban flooding, yet reliable input data are oftentimes hard to obtain. Taking Ho Chi Minh City as an example, this paper explores the usability and reliability of open-access data to produce preliminary risk maps that provide first insights into potential flooding hotspots. As a key novelty, a normalized flood severity index is presented which combines flood depth and duration to enhance the interpretation of hydro-numerical results.
Claudia Herbert and Petra Döll
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2111–2131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2111-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new method for selecting streamflow drought hazard indicators for monitoring drought hazard for human water supply and river ecosystems in large-scale drought early warning systems. Indicators are classified by their inherent assumptions about the habituation of people and ecosystems to the streamflow regime and their level of drought characterization, namely drought magnitude (water deficit at a certain point in time) and severity (cumulated magnitude since drought onset).
Maryse Charpentier-Noyer, Daniela Peredo, Axelle Fleury, Hugo Marchal, François Bouttier, Eric Gaume, Pierre Nicolle, Olivier Payrastre, and Maria-Helena Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2001–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a methodological framework designed for event-based evaluation in the context of an intense flash-flood event. The evaluation adopts the point of view of end users, with a focus on the anticipation of exceedances of discharge thresholds. With a study of rainfall forecasts, a discharge evaluation and a detailed look at the forecast hydrographs, the evaluation framework should help in drawing robust conclusions about the usefulness of new rainfall ensemble forecasts.
Min Li, Mingfeng Zhang, Runxiang Cao, Yidi Sun, and Xiyuan Deng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1453–1464, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1453-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1453-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
It is an important disaster reduction strategy to forecast hydrological drought. In order to analyse the impact of human activities on hydrological drought, we constructed the human activity factor based on the method of restoration. With the increase of human index (HI) value, hydrological droughts tend to transition to more severe droughts. The conditional distribution model involving of human activity factor can further improve the forecasting accuracy of drought in the Luanhe River basin.
Cited articles
Araújo, I. B. and Pugh, D. T.: Sea levels at Newlyn, 1915–2005: Analysis of
trends for future flooding risks, J. Coastal Res., 24, 203–212,
https://doi.org/10.2112/06-0785.1, 2008. a
Balkema, A. A. and de Haan, L.: Residual life time at great age, Ann. Probab.,
2, 792–804, https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176996548, 1974. a, b
Barbariol, F., Bidlot, J.-R., Cavaleri, L., Sclavo, M., Thomson, J., and
Benetazzo, A.: Maximum wave heights from global model reanalysis, Prog.
Oceanogr., 175, 139–160, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2019.03.009, 2019. a
Beck, C. and Cohen, E. G. D.: Superstatistics, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics
and its Applications, 322, 267–275, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4371(03)00019-0,
2003. a
Benetazzo, A., Ardhuin, F., Bergamasco, F., Cavaleri, L., Guimarães, P. V.,
Schwendeman, M., Sclavo, M., Thomson, J., and Torsello, A.: On the shape and
likelihood of oceanic rogue waves, Sci. Rep, 7, 1–11,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-07704-9, 2017. a
Bernardara, P., Andreewsky, M., and Benoit, M.: Application of regional
frequency analysis to the estimation of extreme storm surges, J. Geophys.
Res.-Oceans, 116, C02008, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JC006229, 2011. a
Bernardara, P., Mazas, F., Kergadallan, X., and Hamm, L.: A two-step framework for over-threshold modelling of environmental extremes, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 635–647, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-635-2014, 2014. a
Bernier, N. B. and Thompson, K. R.: Tide-surge interaction off the east coast
of Canada and northeastern United States, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 112,
C06008, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JC003793, 2007. a
Bommier, E.: Peaks-over-threshold modelling of environmental data, Master's
thesis, Department of Mathematics, Uppsala University, https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:760802/FULLTEXT01.pdf (last access: 7 June 2021), 2014. a
Caldwell, P. C., Merrifield, M. A., and Thompson, P. R.: Sea level measured by tide gauges from global oceans – the Joint Archive
for Sea Level holdings (NCEI Accession 0019568), Version 5.5, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information [data set],
https://doi.org/10.7289/V5V40S7W, 2015. a, b
Cancelliere, A.: Non Stationary Analysis of Extreme Events, Water Resour.
Manag., 31, 3097–3110, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-017-1724-4, 2017. a
Castillo, E., Hadi, A. S., Balakrishnan, N., and Sarabia, J. M.: Extreme Value
and Related Models in Engineering and Science Applications, John Wiley &
Sons, New York, ISBN 978-0-471-67172-5, 2005. a
Chan, S., Chu, J., Zhang, Y., and Nadarajah, S.: An extreme value analysis of
the tail relationships between returns and volumes for high frequency
cryptocurrencies, Research in International Business and Finance, 59,
101541, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2021.101541, 2022. a
Chiu, Y., Chebana, F., Abdous, B., Bélanger, D., and Gosselin, P.: Mortality
and morbidity peaks modeling: an extreme value theory approach, Stat. Methods
Med. Res., 27, 1498–1512, https://doi.org/10.1177/0962280216662494, 2018. a
Church, J. A. and White, N. J.: A 20th century acceleration in global
sea‐level rise, Surv. Geophys., 33, L01602, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024826, 2006. a
Church, J. A. and White, N. J.: Sea-Level Rise from the Late 19th to the Early
21st Century, Surv. Geophys., 32, 585–602, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-011-9119-1, 2011. a
Church, J. A., Clark, P. U., Cazenave, A., Gregory, J. M., Jevrejeva, S.,
Levermann, A., Merrifield, M. A., Milne, G. A., Nerem, R. S., Nunn, P. D.,
Payne, A. J., Pfeffer, W. T., Stammer, D., and Unnikrishnan, A. S.: Sea Level
Change, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of
Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor,
M., Allen, S., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P.,
chap. 13, 1137–1216, Cambridge University Press,
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/ (last access: 30 June 2021), (data available at: https://icdc.cen.uni-hamburg.de/en/ar5-slr.html, last access: 16 December 2020) 2013. a, b, c, d
Cid, A., Menéndez, M., Castanedo, S., Abascal, A. J., Méndez, F. J., and
Medina, R.: Long-term changes in the frequency, intensity and duration of
extreme storm surge events in southern Europe, Clim. Dynam., 46, 1503–1516,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2659-1, 2015. a
Coles, S. and Tawn, J.: Bayesian modelling of extreme surges on the UK east
coast, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 363, 1387–1406,
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2005.1574, 2005. a, b
Dalrymple, T.: Flood frequency Analysis, Manual of hydrology: Part 3.
Flood-flow techniques 1543, Geological Survey Water Supply Paper 1543-A,
U.S. Government Publishing Office, Washington, WA, USA, https://doi.org/10.3133/wsp1543A, 1960. a
De Zea Bermudez, P. and Mendes, Z.: Extreme value theory in medical sciences:
modeling total high cholesterol levels, Journal of Statistical Theory and
Practice, 6, 468–491, https://doi.org/10.1080/15598608.2012.695673, 2012. a
Dixon, M. J. and Tawn, J. A.: The effect of non-stationarity on extreme
sea-level estimation, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. C-App., 48, 135–151, 1999. a
Dubey, S. D.: A compound weibull distribution, Nav. Res. Logist. Q., 15, 179–188, https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.3800150205, 1968. a
Eliot, M.: Influence of interannual tidal modulation on coastal flooding along
the Western Australian coast, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 115, C11013,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JC006306, 2010. a
Elvidge, S. and Angling, M. J.: Using Extreme Value Theory for Determining the
Probability of Carrington-Like Solar Flares, Adv. Space Res., 16, 417–421,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017SW001727, 2018. a
Embrechts, P., Klüppelberg, C., and Mikosch, T.: Modelling Extremal Events for
insurance and finance, Springer, New York,
Applications of Mathematics,
Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 1 edn., https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-33483-2, 1997. a
Ferro, C. A. T. and Segers, J.: Inference for clusters of extreme values, J.
Roy Stat. Soc. B-Met., 65, 545–556, https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9868.00401, 2003. a
Finkenstadt, B. and Rootzén, H.: Extreme Values in Finance, Telecommunications and the Environment, Monographs on Statistics & Applied
Probability, Chapman & Hall/CRC, 1 Edn., https://doi.org/10.1201/9780203483350, 2004. a
Fisher, R. A. and Tippett, L. H. C.: Limiting forms of the frequency
distribution of the largest or smallest member of a sample, Math. Proc.
Cambridge, 24, 180–190, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0305004100015681, 1928. a
Fortunato, A. B., Li, K., Bertin, X., Rodrigues, M., and Miguez, B. M.:
Determination of extreme sea levels along the Iberian Atlantic coast, Ocean
Eng., 111, 471–482, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2015.11.031,
2016. a
Fréchet, M. R.: Sur la loi de probabilité de l’écart maximum, Ann. Soc.
Polon. Math., 6, 93–116, 1927. a
Gnedenko, B. V.: Sur la distribution limite du terme maximum d’une serie
aleatoire, Ann. Math., 44, 423–453, 1943. a
Goring, D. G., Stephens, S. A., Bell, R. G., and P., P. C.: Estimation of
Extreme Sea Levels in a Tide-Dominated Environment Using Short Data Records,
J. Waterw. Port. C, 137, 150–159,
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WW.1943-5460.0000071, 2011. a
Greenwood, J. A., Landwehr, J. M., Matalas, N. C., and Wallis, J. R.:
Probability weighted moments: definition and relation to parameters of
several distributions expressable in inverse form, Water Resour. Res., 15,
1049–1054, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR015i005p01049, 1979. a
Haigh, I. D., Nicholls, R., and Wells, N.: Assessing changes in extreme sea
levels: Application to the English Channel, 1900–2006, Cont. Shelf. Res.,
30, 1042–1055, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2010.02.002, 2010. a, b, c
Haigh, I. D., Eliot, M., and Pattiaratchi, C.: Global influences of the
18.61‐year nodal cycle and 8.85-year cycle of lunar perigee on high tidal
levels, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 116, 25249, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JC006645,
2011. a
Haigh, I. D., MacPherson, L. R., Mason, M. S., Wijeratne, E. M. S.,
Pattiaratchi, C. B., Crompton, R. P., and George, S.: Estimating present day
extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of
Australia: tropical cyclone-induced storm surges, Clim. Dynam., 42, 139–157,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1653-0, 2014a. a
Haigh, I. D., Wahl, T., Rohling, E. J., Price, R. M., Pattiaratchi, C.,
Calafat, F. M., and Dangendorf, S.: Timescales for detecting a significant
acceleration in sea level rise, Nat. Commun., 5, 3635, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms4635,
2014b. a, b
Hall, T. M. and Sobel, A. H.: On the impact angle of Hurricane Sandy's New
Jersey landfall, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 2312–2315,
https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50395, 2013. a
Hamdi, Y., Bardet, L., Duluc, C.-M., and Rebour, V.: Extreme storm surges: a comparative study of frequency analysis approaches, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2053–2067, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2053-2014, 2014. a
Hamdi, Y., Bardet, L., Duluc, C.-M., and Rebour, V.: Use of historical information in extreme-surge frequency estimation: the case of marine flooding on the La Rochelle site in France, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1515–1531, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1515-2015, 2015. a
Hamdi, Y., Garnier, E., Giloy, N., Duluc, C.-M., and Rebour, V.: Analysis of the risk associated with coastal flooding hazards: a new historical extreme storm surges dataset for Dunkirk, France, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3383–3402, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3383-2018, 2018. a
Hamon, B. V. and Middleton, J. F.: Return periods of extreme sea levels: the
exceedance probability method, Int. Hydrogr. Rev., 66,
165–177, 1989. a
Hay, C., Morrow, E., Kopp, R., and Mitrovica, J. X.: Probabilistic reanalysis
of twentieth-century sea-level rise, Nature, 517, 481–484,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14093, 2015. a
Hosking, J. R. M.: L-moments: Analysis and estimation of distributions using
linear combinations of order statistics, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. B-Met., 52,
105–124, 1990. a
Hosking, J. R. M. and Wallis, J. R.: Parameter and Quantile Estimation for the
Generalized Pareto Distribution, Technometrics, 29, 339–349, 1987. a
Hosking, J. R. M., Wallis, J. R., and Wood, E. F.: Estimation of the
generalized extreme-value distribution by the method of probability-weighted
moments, Technometrics, 27, 251–261, https://doi.org/10.1080/00401706.1985.10488049,
1985. a
Hosseini, S. R., Scaioni, M., and Marani, M.: Extreme Atlantic hurricane
probability of occurrence through the Metastatistical Extreme Value
Distribution, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, 2019GL086138,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086138, 2020. a, b
Jenkinson, A.: The frequency distribution of the annual maximum (or minimum)
values of meteorological elements, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 81, 158–171,
1955. a
Jevrejeva, S., Moore, J. C., Grinsted, A., and Woodworth, P. L.: Recent global
sea level acceleration started over 200 years ago?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L08715,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL033611, 2008. a
Johns, B. and Ali, M. A.: The numerical modeling of storm surges in the Bay of
Bengal, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 106, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710644702,
1980. a
Katz, R. W., Parlange, M. B., and Naveau, P.: Statistics of extremes in
hydrology, Adv. Water Resour., 25, 1287–1304,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0309-1708(02)00056-8, 2002. a
Katz, R. W., Brush, G. S., and Parlange, M. B.: Statistics of extremes:
modeling ecological disturbances, Ecology, 86, 1124–1134,
https://doi.org/10.1890/04-0606, 2005. a
Li, G., Zhang, X., Zwiers, F., and Wen, Q. H.: Quantification of uncertainty in
high-resolution temperature scenarios for North America, J. Climate, 25,
3373–3389, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00217.1, 2012. a
Lowe, J. A., Woodworth, P. L., Knutson, T., McDonald, R. E., McInnes, K., Woth,
K., Von Storch, H., Wolf, J., Swail, V., Bernier, N., Gulev, S., Horsburgh,
K., Unnikrishnan, A. S., Hunter, J., and Weisse, R.: Past and future changes
in extreme sea levels and waves, in: Understanding Sea‐Level Rise and
Variability, edited by: Church, J. A., Woodworth, P. L., Aarup, T., and
Wilson, W. S., chap. 11, 326–375, Wiley-Blackwell,
https://doi.org/10.1002/9781444323276, 2010. a, b
Marani, M. and Ignaccolo, M.: A metastatistical approach to rainfall extremes,
Adv. Water Resour., 79, 121–126, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2015.03.001,
2015. a, b, c
Marani, M. and Zorzetto, E.: Doubly stochastic distributions of extreme events,
arXiv [preprint], arXiv:1902.09862, 2019. a
Marra, F., Nikolopoulos, E. I., Anagnostou, E. N., and Morin, E.:
Metastatistical extreme value analysis of hourly rainfall from short records:
Estimation of high quantiles and impact of measurement errors, Adv. Water
Resour., 117, 27–39, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2018.05.001,
2018. a, b, c
McInnes, K. L., Hubbert, G., Macadam, I., and O’Grady, J.: An assessment of
current and future vulnerability to coastal inundation due to sea-level
extremes in Victoria, southeast Australia, Int. J. Climatol., 33, 33–47,
https://doi.org/10.1002/JOC.3405, 2013. a
Meehl, G., Stocker, T., Collins, W. D., Friedlingstein, P., Gaye, A., Gregory,
J. M., Kitoh, A., Knutti, R., Murphy, J. M., Noda, A., Raper, S. C. B.,
Watterson, I. G., Weaver, A. J., and Zhao, Z. C.: Global Climate Projections,
in: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z.,
Marquis, M., Averyt, K., Tignor, M., and Miller, H., chap. 10, 747–846,
Cambridge University Press,
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg1_report_the_physical_science_basis.htm (last access: 30 June 2021),
2007. a
Mekonnen, K., Melesse, A. M., and Woldesenbet, T. A.: Effect of temporal
sampling mismatches between satellite rainfall estimates and rain gauge
observations on modelling extreme rainfall in the Upper Awash Basin,
Ethiopia, J. Hydrol., 598, 126467,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126467, 2021. a
Menéndez, M. and Woodworth, P. L.: Changes in extreme high water levels based
on a quasi‐global tide‐gauge data set, J. Geophys. Res., 115,
1124–1134, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JC005997, 2010. a, b
Middleton, J. F. and Thompson, K. R.: Return periods of extreme sea levels from
short records, J. Geophys. Res., 91, 11707–11716,
https://doi.org/10.1029/JC091iC10p11707, 1986. a
Miniussi, A. and Marani, M.: Estimation of Daily Rainfall Extremes Through the
Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution: Uncertainty Minimization and
Implications for Trend Detection, Water Resour. Res., 56, e2019WR026535,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR026535, 2020. a, b, c, d
Miniussi, A. and Marra, F.: Estimation of extreme daily precipitation return
levels at-site and in ungauged locations using the simplified MEV approach,
J. Hydrol., 603, 126946, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126946,
2021. a
Miniussi, A., Marani, M., and Villarini, G.: Metastatistical Extreme Value
Distribution applied to floods across the continental United States, Adv.
Water Resour., 136, 103498, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.103498,
2020a. a, b
Miniussi, A., Villarini, G., and Marani, M.: Analyses through the
metastatistical extreme value distribution identify contributions of tropical
cyclones to rainfall extremes in the eastern United States, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 47, e2020GL087238, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087238, 2020b. a, b
Önöz, B. and Bayazit, M.: Effect of the occurrence process of the peaks over
threshold on the flood estimates, J. Hydrol., 244, 86–96,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00330-4, 2001. a
Oppenheimer, M., Glavovic, B., Hinkel, J., van de Wal, R., Magnan, A.,
Abd-Elgawad, A., Cai, R., Cifuentes-Jara, M., DeConto, R., Ghosh, T., Hay,
J., Isla, F., Marzeion, B., Meyssignac, B., and Sebesvari, Z.: Sea Level Rise
and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities, in: IPCC
Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, edited by:
Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M.,
Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Nicolai, M., Okem, A.,
Petzold, J., Rama, B., and Weyer, N. M., chap. 4, 321–445, Cambridge
University Press, https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/download-report/ (last access: 30 June 2021),
2019. a
Papalexiou, S. M. and Koutsoyiannis, D.: Battle of extreme value distributions:
A global survey on extreme daily rainfall, Water Resour. Res., 49,
187–201, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012WR012557, 2013. a
Peng, D., Hill, E. M., and Meltzner, A. J.and Switzer, A. D.: Tide gauge
records show that the 18.61‐year nodal tidal cycle can change high water
levels by up to 30 cm, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 124, 736–749,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JC014695, 2019. a
Pickands III, J.: Statistical inference using extreme order statistics, Ann.
Stat., 3, 119–131, https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176343003, 1975. a, b
Pisarenko, V. F., Rodkin, M. V., and Rukavishnikova, T. A.: Estimation of the
probability of strongest seismic disasters based on the extreme value theory,
Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth, 50, 311–324,
https://doi.org/10.1134/S1069351314030070, 2014a. a
Pisarenko, V. F., Sornette, A., Sornette, D., and Rodkin, M. V.:
Characterization of the Tail of the Distribution of Earthquake Magnitudes by
Combining the GEV and GPD Descriptions of Extreme Value Theory, Pure Appl.
Geophys., 171, 1599–1624, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-014-0882-z,
2014b. a
Pugh, D. T. and Vassie, J. M.: Extreme sea levels from tide and surge
probability, in: Proc. 16th International Conference on Coastal Engineering
1978, Hamburg, Germany, chap. 52, 911–930, American Society of Civil
Engineers, https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v16.52, 1978. a, b
Pugh, D. T. and Vassie, J. M.: Applications of the joint probability method for
extreme sea level computations, in: Proc. Inst. Civ. Eng., Part 2, 959–975, https://doi.org/10.1680/iicep.1980.2179, 1980. a
Pugh, D. T. and Woodworth, P. L.: Sea-Level Science: Understanding Tides,
Surges, Tsunamis and Mean Sea-Level Changes, Cambridge University Press,
https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139235778, 2014. a
Rueda, A., Camus, P., Méndez, F. J., Tomás, A., and Luceño, A.: An extreme
value model for maximum wave heights based on weather types, J. Geophys.
Res.-Oceans, 121, 1262–1273, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC010952, 2016. a
Rypkema, D. C., Horvitz, C. C., and Tuljapurkar, S.: How climate affects
extreme events and hence ecological population models, Ecology, 100,
e02684, https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.2684, 2019. a
Scheffner, N. W., Borgman, L. E., and Mark, D. J.: Empirical simulation
technique based storm surge frequency analyses, J. Waterw. Port Coast, 122, 93–101, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-950X(1996)122:2(93),
1996. a
Schellander, H., Lieb, A., and Hell, T.: Error structure of metastatistical and
generalized extreme value distributions for modeling extreme rainfall in
Austria, Earth and Space Science, 6, 1616–1632, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EA000557,
2019. a
Serinaldi, F. and Kilsby, C. G.: Rainfall extremes: Toward reconciliation after
the battle of distributions, Water Resour. Res., 50, 336–352,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR014211, 2014. a
Smith, R. L.: Extreme value theory based on the r largest annual events, J.
Hydrol., 86, 27–43, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(86)90004-1, 1986. a
Solari, S., Egüen, M., Polo, M. J., and Losada, M. A.: Peaks Over Threshold
(POT): A methodology for automatic threshold estimation using goodness of fit
p-value, Water Resour. Res., 53, 2833–2849,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR019426, 2017. a
Songchitruksa, P. and Tarko, A. P.: The extreme value theory approach to safety
estimation, Accident Anal. Prev., 38, 811–822,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2006.02.003, 2006. a
Tawn, J. A.: An extreme-value theory model for dependent observations, J.
Hydrol., 101, 227–250, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(88)90037-6, 1988. a
Tawn, J. A. and Vassie, J. M.: Extreme sea levels: The joint probability method
revisited and revised, in: Proc. Inst. Civ. Eng., Part 2, 429–442, https://doi.org/10.1680/iicep.1989.2975, 1989. a
Tebaldi, C., Strauss, B. H., and Zervas, C. E.: Modelling sea level rise
impacts on storm surges along US coasts, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 014–032,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014032, 2012. a, b, c
Valle-Levinson, A., Marani, M., Carniello, L., D'Alpaos, A., and Lanzoni, S.:
Astronomic link to anomalously high mean sea level in the northern Adriatic
Sea, Estuar. Coast. Shelf. S., 257, 107418,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2021.107418, 2021. a
Volpi, E., Fiori, A., Grimaldi, S., Lombardo, F., and Koutsoyiannis, D.: Save
hydrological observations! Return period estimation without data decimation,
J. Hydrol., 571, 782–792, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.02.017, 2019. a
Von Mises, R.: La distribution de la plus grande de n valuers, Rev. math. Union
interbalcanique, 1, 141–160, 1936. a
Vousdoukas, M. I., Voukouvalas, E., Annunziato, A., Giardino, A., and Feyen,
L.: Projections of extreme storm surge levels along Europe, Clim. Dynam., 47,
3171–3190, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3019-5, 2016. a
Wahl, T., Haigh, I. D., Nicholls, R. J., Arns, A., Dangendorf, S., Hinkel, J.,
and Slangen, A. B.: Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal
impact and adaptation analysis, Nat. Commun., 8, 1–12,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms16075, 2017. a
Woodworth, P. L. and Blackman, D. L.: Changes in high waters at Liverpool since
1768, Int. J. Climatol., 22, 697–7147,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.761, 2002. a
Woodworth, P. L. and Blackman, D. L.: Evidence for systematic changes in
extreme high waters since the mid‐1970s, J. Climate, 17, 1190–1197,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<1190:EFSCIE>2.0.CO;2, 2004.
a
Woodworth, P. L., Menéndez, M., and Roland Gehrels, W.: Evidence for
Century-Timescale Acceleration in Mean Sea Levels and for Recent Changes in
Extreme Sea Levels, Surv. Geophys., 32, 603–618,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-011-9112-8, 2011. a
Zhang, K., Douglas, B. C., and Leatherman, S. P.: Twentieth-century storm
activity along the U.S. east coast, J. Climate, 13, 1748–1761,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1748:TCSAAT>2.0.CO;2, 2000. a
Zhang, W.-Z., Shi, F., Hong, H.-S., Shang, S.-P., and Kirby, J. T.:
Tide–surge interaction intensified by the Taiwan Strait, J. Geophys.
Res.-Oceans, 115, C06012, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JC005762, 2010. a
Zorzetto, E. and Marani, M.: Downscaling of rainfall extremes from satellite
observations, Water Resour. Res., 55, 156–174, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR022950,
2019. a
Zorzetto, E. and Marani, M.: Extreme value metastatistical analysis of remotely
sensed rainfall in ungauged areas: Spatial downscaling and error modelling,
Adv. Water Resour., 135, 103483, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.103483,
2020. a
Zorzetto, E., Botter, G., and Marani, M.: On the emergence of rainfall extremes
from ordinary events, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 8076–8082,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069445, 2016. a, b, c
Short summary
We comparatively evaluate the predictive performance of traditional and new approaches to estimate the probability distributions of extreme coastal water levels. The metastatistical approach maximizes the use of observational information and provides reliable estimates of high quantiles with respect to traditional methods. Leveraging the increased estimation accuracy afforded by this approach, we investigate future changes in the frequency of extreme total water levels.
We comparatively evaluate the predictive performance of traditional and new approaches to...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint