Articles | Volume 22, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1109-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1109-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Apr 2022
Research article |
| 01 Apr 2022
| 01 Apr 2022
Extreme-coastal-water-level estimation and projection: a comparison of statistical methods
Maria Francesca Caruso
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of Padua, 35131, Padua, Italy
Marco Marani
Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of Padua, 35131, Padua, Italy
Earth and Climate Sciences Division, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
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Cited
26 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A critical evaluation of the metastatistical approach to extremes with focus on bias, uncertainty bands, and goodness-of-fit test T. Schmith et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-026-03260-9
- Warning water level determination and its spatial distribution in coastal areas of China S. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-127-2023
- Development and validation of an Early Warning System for coastal flooding operating on a Mediterranean urban beach A. Chatzipavlis et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1573-2026
- Extreme Precipitation and Flood Hazard Assessment for Sustainable Climate Adaptation: A Case Study of Diyarbakır, Turkey B. Kaya & R. Çelik https://doi.org/10.3390/su17209339
- How well does a convection-permitting regional climate model represent the reverse orographic effect of extreme hourly precipitation? E. Dallan et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023
- Building a high-resolution hail database for Austria and estimating hail hazard using a metastatistical approach G. Ehrensperger et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2026.100916
- The Role of Different Total Water Level Definitions in Coastal Flood Modelling on a Low-Elevation Dune System P. Cabrita et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse12061003
- A metastatistical frequency analysis of extreme storm surge hazard along the US coastline G. Boumis et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/21664250.2024.2338323
- Episodic vs. Sea Level Rise Coastal Flooding Scenarios at the Urban Scale: Extreme Event Analysis and Adaptation Strategies S. Spadotto et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17131991
- Reconstructing hourly coastal total sea levels and assessing current and future extreme sea levels threats to the Coast of China P. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-22493-2
- Nonstationary hydrological frequency analysis using the Metastatistical extreme value distribution C. Vidrio-Sahagún et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2023.104460
- Mapping Coastal Flood Risk in China J. Bian et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-026-00742-w
- An efficient metamodel to downscale total water level in open beaches M. Zornoza-Aguado et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2024.108705
- A data-driven framework for enhancing coastal flood resilience in resource-crunched developing nations A. Narendr et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2024.2396892
- Recent Advances and New Frontiers in Riverine and Coastal Flood Modeling K. Jafarzadegan et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022RG000788
- Analysis of the vulnerability of the lagoon levees of the Po Delta to coastal flooding in a changing climate C. Favaretto et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2024.109089
- Importance of non-stationary analysis for assessing extreme sea levels under sea level rise D. Baldan et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3663-2022
- Estimating Extreme Tidal Range by Frequency Analysis at Iraqi Coastal Water A. Al-Rammahi & A. Al-Shukur https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1507/1/012043
- Analysis of historical extreme coastal water level and its contributors along the South American Pacific coast F. Molteni-Pérez et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/21664250.2025.2564587
- Coevolution of Extreme Sea Levels and Sea‐Level Rise Under Global Warming G. Boumis et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003649
- Spatial Analysis of Extreme Coastal Water Levels and Dominant Forcing Factors Along the Senegalese Coast C. Cissé et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse13122342
- Hydrological frequency analysis under nonstationarity using the Metastatistical approach and its simplified version C. Vidrio-Sahagún & J. He https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2022.104244
- Non-asymptotic distributions of water extremes: much ado about what? F. Serinaldi et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1159-2025
- Reporting Climate Change Impacts on Coastal Ports (NW Iberian Peninsula): A Review of Flooding Extent A. Ribeiro et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11030477
- Surrogate Modelling Approach for Estimating Extreme Significant Wave Heights Using Meteorological Records B. Pereira-Olmos et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/make8070200
- Climate change effects on river droughts in Bavaria using a hydrological large ensemble B. Poschlod et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-1165-2026
26 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A critical evaluation of the metastatistical approach to extremes with focus on bias, uncertainty bands, and goodness-of-fit test T. Schmith et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-026-03260-9
- Warning water level determination and its spatial distribution in coastal areas of China S. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-127-2023
- Development and validation of an Early Warning System for coastal flooding operating on a Mediterranean urban beach A. Chatzipavlis et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1573-2026
- Extreme Precipitation and Flood Hazard Assessment for Sustainable Climate Adaptation: A Case Study of Diyarbakır, Turkey B. Kaya & R. Çelik https://doi.org/10.3390/su17209339
- How well does a convection-permitting regional climate model represent the reverse orographic effect of extreme hourly precipitation? E. Dallan et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023
- Building a high-resolution hail database for Austria and estimating hail hazard using a metastatistical approach G. Ehrensperger et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2026.100916
- The Role of Different Total Water Level Definitions in Coastal Flood Modelling on a Low-Elevation Dune System P. Cabrita et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse12061003
- A metastatistical frequency analysis of extreme storm surge hazard along the US coastline G. Boumis et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/21664250.2024.2338323
- Episodic vs. Sea Level Rise Coastal Flooding Scenarios at the Urban Scale: Extreme Event Analysis and Adaptation Strategies S. Spadotto et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17131991
- Reconstructing hourly coastal total sea levels and assessing current and future extreme sea levels threats to the Coast of China P. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-22493-2
- Nonstationary hydrological frequency analysis using the Metastatistical extreme value distribution C. Vidrio-Sahagún et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2023.104460
- Mapping Coastal Flood Risk in China J. Bian et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-026-00742-w
- An efficient metamodel to downscale total water level in open beaches M. Zornoza-Aguado et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2024.108705
- A data-driven framework for enhancing coastal flood resilience in resource-crunched developing nations A. Narendr et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2024.2396892
- Recent Advances and New Frontiers in Riverine and Coastal Flood Modeling K. Jafarzadegan et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022RG000788
- Analysis of the vulnerability of the lagoon levees of the Po Delta to coastal flooding in a changing climate C. Favaretto et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2024.109089
- Importance of non-stationary analysis for assessing extreme sea levels under sea level rise D. Baldan et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3663-2022
- Estimating Extreme Tidal Range by Frequency Analysis at Iraqi Coastal Water A. Al-Rammahi & A. Al-Shukur https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1507/1/012043
- Analysis of historical extreme coastal water level and its contributors along the South American Pacific coast F. Molteni-Pérez et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/21664250.2025.2564587
- Coevolution of Extreme Sea Levels and Sea‐Level Rise Under Global Warming G. Boumis et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003649
- Spatial Analysis of Extreme Coastal Water Levels and Dominant Forcing Factors Along the Senegalese Coast C. Cissé et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse13122342
- Hydrological frequency analysis under nonstationarity using the Metastatistical approach and its simplified version C. Vidrio-Sahagún & J. He https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2022.104244
- Non-asymptotic distributions of water extremes: much ado about what? F. Serinaldi et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1159-2025
- Reporting Climate Change Impacts on Coastal Ports (NW Iberian Peninsula): A Review of Flooding Extent A. Ribeiro et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11030477
- Surrogate Modelling Approach for Estimating Extreme Significant Wave Heights Using Meteorological Records B. Pereira-Olmos et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/make8070200
- Climate change effects on river droughts in Bavaria using a hydrological large ensemble B. Poschlod et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-1165-2026
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 13 Aug 2026
Short summary
We comparatively evaluate the predictive performance of traditional and new approaches to estimate the probability distributions of extreme coastal water levels. The metastatistical approach maximizes the use of observational information and provides reliable estimates of high quantiles with respect to traditional methods. Leveraging the increased estimation accuracy afforded by this approach, we investigate future changes in the frequency of extreme total water levels.
We comparatively evaluate the predictive performance of traditional and new approaches to...
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