Articles | Volume 22, issue 3
30 Mar 2022
Research article | 30 Mar 2022
Regional county-level housing inventory predictions and the effects on hurricane risk
Caroline J. Williams et al.
No articles found.
Scott Curtis, Kelley DePolt, Jamie Kruse, Anuradha Mukherji, Jennifer Helgeson, Ausmita Ghosh, and Philip Van Wagoner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1759–1767,Short summary
Storm surge flooding can challenge rescue and recovery operations, especially over large estuaries and populated barrier islands. Understanding the relationship between storm and tidal characteristics and surge timing is important for proper resourcing prior to an event. Here we compare the concurrency of maximum observed surge and areal extent of effective hazard operations for hurricanes Matthew and Florence in eastern North Carolina, USA. Matthew was a more spatially compounded surge event.
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management AspectsBrief communication: Key papers of 20 years in Natural Hazards and Earth System SciencesInvited Perspectives: “Small country, big challenges – Switzerland's hazard prevention research”Invited perspectives: Challenges and future directions in improving bridge flood resilienceBangladesh's vulnerability to cyclonic coastal floodingA geography of drought indices: mismatch between indicators of drought and its impacts on water and food securitiesCost–benefit analysis of coastal flood defence measures in the North Adriatic SeaAbout the return period of a catastropheBrief communication: Radar images for monitoring informal urban settlements in vulnerable zones in Lima, PeruA simulation–optimization framework for post-disaster allocation of mental health resourcesLessons learned about the importance of raising risk awareness in the Mediterranean region (north Morocco and west Sardinia, Italy)Stochastic system dynamics modelling for climate change water scarcity assessment of a reservoir in the Italian AlpsMultiple hazards and risk perceptions over time: the availability heuristic in Italy and Sweden under COVID-19Invited perspectives: A research agenda towards Disaster Risk Management pathways in multi-risk assessmentReview article: Mapping the adaptation solution space – lessons from JakartaRisk perception of local stakeholders on natural hazards: implications for theory and practiceBrief communication: Effective earthquake early warning systems: appropriate messaging and public awareness rolesFlood–pedestrian simulator for modelling human response dynamics during flood-induced evacuation: Hillsborough stadium case studyReview article: Brief history of volcanic risk in the Neapolitan area (Campania, southern Italy): a critical reviewAre interactions important in estimating flood damage to economic entities? The case of wine-making in FranceResidential building stock modelling for mainland China targeted for seismic risk assessmentLongitudinal survey data for diversifying temporal dynamics in flood risk modellingEffective uncertainty visualization for aftershock forecast mapsFlood and drought risk assessment for agricultural areas (Tagus Estuary, Portugal)An inventory of Alpine drought impact reports to explore past droughts in a mountain regionThe potential of machine learning for weather index insuranceEducation, financial aid and awareness can reduce smallholder farmers’ vulnerability to drought under climate changeRisk communication successes and limits during sismo-volcanic crisis: the example of Mayotte, FranceMulti-scenario urban flood risk assessment by integrating future land use change models and hydrodynamic modelsIndirect flood impacts and cascade risk across interdependent linear infrastructuresPredicting social and health vulnerability to floods in BangladeshResidential flood loss estimated from Bayesian multilevel modelsReview article: A systematic review and future prospects of flood vulnerability indicesInteracting effects of land-use change and natural hazards on rice agriculture in the Mekong and Red River deltas in VietnamEstablishment and characteristics analysis of a crop–drought vulnerability curve: a case study of European winter wheatReview article: Towards a context-driven research: a state-of-the-art review of resilience research on climate changeSpatialized flood resilience measurement in rapidly urbanized coastal areas with a complex semi-arid environment in northern MoroccoStrategies for adapting to hazards and environmental inequalities in coastal urban areas: what kind of resilience for these territories?Are OpenStreetMap building data useful for flood vulnerability modelling?Assessing and zoning of typhoon storm surge risk with a geographic information system (GIS) technique: a case study of the coastal area of HuizhouRegional tropical cyclone impact functions for globally consistent risk assessmentsComparing an insurer's perspective on building damages with modelled damages from pan-European winter windstorm event sets: a case study from Zurich, SwitzerlandProbabilistic characterisation of coastal storm-induced risks using Bayesian networksA glimpse into the future of exposure and vulnerabilities in cities? Modelling of residential location choice of urban population with random forestInvited perspectives: Building sustainable and resilient communities – recommended actions for natural hazard scientistsDesign of parametric risk transfer solutions for volcanic eruptions: an application to Japanese volcanoesMulti-hazard risk assessment for roads: probabilistic versus deterministic approachesTropical drought risk: estimates combining gridded vulnerability and hazard dataAre flood damage models converging to “reality”? Lessons learnt from a blind testBrief Communication: Simple-INSYDE, development of a new tool for flood damage evaluation from an existing synthetic modelA novel approach to assessing nuisance risk from seismicity induced by UK shale gas development, with implications for future policy design
Animesh K. Gain, Yves Bühler, Pascal Haegeli, Daniela Molinari, Mario Parise, David J. Peres, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kai Schröter, Ricardo M. Trigo, María Carmen Llasat, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 985–993,Short summary
To mark the 20th anniversary of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), an interdisciplinary and international journal dedicated to the public discussion and open-access publication of high-quality studies and original research on natural hazards and their consequences, we highlight 11 key publications covering major subject areas of NHESS that stood out within the past 20 years.
Dorothea Wabbels and Gian Reto Bezzola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 927–930,Short summary
Due to its geography and climate, densely populated Switzerland is often affected by water-related hazards such as surface runoff, floods, debris flows, landslides, rockfalls and avalanches. Almost every part of Switzerland is exposed to natural hazards, and anyone can be affected.
Enrico Tubaldi, Christopher J. White, Edoardo Patelli, Stergios Aristoteles Mitoulis, Gustavo de Almeida, Jim Brown, Michael Cranston, Martin Hardman, Eftychia Koursari, Rob Lamb, Hazel McDonald, Richard Mathews, Richard Newell, Alonso Pizarro, Marta Roca, and Daniele Zonta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 795–812,Short summary
Bridges are critical infrastructure components of transport networks. A large number of these critical assets cross or are adjacent to waterways and are therefore exposed to the potentially devastating impact of floods. This paper discusses a series of issues and areas where improvements in research and practice are required in the context of risk assessment and management of bridges exposed to flood hazard, with the ultimate goal of guiding future efforts in improving bridge flood resilience.
Aurélia Bernard, Nathalie Long, Mélanie Becker, Jamal Khan, and Sylvie Fanchette
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 729–751,Short summary
This article reviews current scientific literature in order to define vulnerability in the context of coastal Bangladesh facing cyclonic flooding. A new metric, called the socio-spatial vulnerability index, is defined as a function of both the probability of the cyclonic flood hazard and the sensitivity of delta inhabitants. The main result shows that three very densely populated districts, located in the Ganges delta tidal floodplain, are highly vulnerable to cyclonic flooding.
Sarra Kchouk, Lieke A. Melsen, David W. Walker, and Pieter R. van Oel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 323–344,Short summary
The aim of our study was to question the validity of the assumed direct linkage between drivers of drought and its impacts on water and food securities, mainly found in the frameworks of drought early warning systems (DEWSs). We analysed more than 5000 scientific studies leading us to the conclusion that the local context can contribute to drought drivers resulting in these drought impacts. Our research aims to increase the relevance and utility of the information provided by DEWSs.
Mattia Amadio, Arthur H. Essenfelder, Stefano Bagli, Sepehr Marzi, Paolo Mazzoli, Jaroslav Mysiak, and Stephen Roberts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 265–286,Short summary
We estimate the risk associated with storm surge events at two case study locations along the North Adriatic Italian coast, considering sea level rise up to the year 2100, and perform a cost–benefit analysis of planned or proposed coastal renovation projects. The study uses nearshore hydrodynamic modelling. Our findings represent a useful indication for disaster risk management, helping to understand the importance of investing in adaptation and estimating the economic return on investments.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 245–263,Short summary
We develop the combined return period to stochastically measure hazard and catastrophe events. This is used to estimate a risk curve by stochastic scaling of historical events and averaging corresponding risk parameters in combination with a vulnerability model. We apply the method to extratropical cyclones over Germany and estimate the risk for insured losses. The results are strongly influenced by assumptions about spatial dependence.
Luis Moya, Fernando Garcia, Carlos Gonzales, Miguel Diaz, Carlos Zavala, Miguel Estrada, Fumio Yamazaki, Shunichi Koshimura, Erick Mas, and Bruno Adriano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 65–70,Short summary
Informal occupation of unused lands for settlements is a critical issue in Peru. In most cases, such areas are unsafe against natural hazards. We performed a time-series analysis of Sentinel-1 images at recent informal settlements in Lima. The result suggests that a low-cost and sustainable monitoring system of informal settlements can be implemented.
Stephen Cunningham, Steven Schuldt, Christopher Chini, and Justin Delorit
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3843–3862,Short summary
The severity of disaster-induced mental health illness outcomes varies based on factors such as socioeconomic standing, age, and degree of exposure. This research proposes a resource allocation framework allowing decision-makers the capability to assess the capacity and scalability of early, intermediate, and long-term mental health treatment and recovery. Ultimately, this framework can inform policy and operational decisions based on community needs and constrained resources post-disaster.
Ante Ivčević, Hubert Mazurek, Lionel Siame, Raquel Bertoldo, Vania Statzu, Kamal Agharroud, Isabel Estrela Rego, Nibedita Mukherjee, and Olivier Bellier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3749–3765,Short summary
The results from two Mediterranean case studies, in north Morocco and west Sardinia, confirm the importance of interdisciplinarity and risk awareness sessions for risk management. The policy literature and interviews held with the administration, associations and scientists indicate that although recognised, the importance of risk awareness sessions is not necessarily put into practice. As a consequence, this could lead to a failure of risk management policy.
Stefano Terzi, Janez Sušnik, Stefan Schneiderbauer, Silvia Torresan, and Andrea Critto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3519–3537,Short summary
This study combines outputs from multiple models with statistical assessments of past and future water availability and demand for the Santa Giustina reservoir (Autonomous Province of Trento, Italy). Considering future climate change scenarios, results show high reductions for stored volume and turbined water, with increasing frequency, duration and severity. These results call for the need to adapt to reductions in water availability and effects on the Santa Giustina reservoir management.
Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Elena Mondino, Maria Rusca, Emanuele Del Giudice, Johanna Mård, Elena Ridolfi, Anna Scolobig, and Elena Raffetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3439–3447,Short summary
COVID-19 has affected humankind in an unprecedented way, and it has changed how people perceive multiple risks. In this paper, we compare public risk perceptions in Italy and Sweden in two different phases of the pandemic. We found that people are more worried about risks related to recently experienced events. This finding is in line with the availability heuristic: individuals assess the risk associated with a given hazard based on how easily it comes to their mind.
Philip James Ward, James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, Silvia Torresan, Roxana Ciurean, Joel Gill, Jana Sillmann, Anaïs Couasnon, Elco Koks, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Sharon Tatman, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Adewole Adesiyun, Jeroen Aerts, Alexander Alabaster, Bernard Butler, Carlos Campillo Torres, Andrea Critto, Raúl Hernández Martin, Marta Machado, Jaroslav Mysiak, Rene Orth, Irene Palomino, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Markus Reichstein, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anne van Loon, Hung Vuong Pham, and Marleen de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
The majority of natural hazard risk research focuses on single hazards (e.g. either a flood, a drought, a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, etc.). In the international research and policy community it is recognised that risk management could benefit from a more systemic approach. In this perspective paper, we argue for an approach that addresses multi-hazard, multi-risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards.
Mia Wannewitz and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3285–3322,Short summary
Focusing on Jakarta as a city with high flood risk and adaptation pressure, this study presents findings from a systematic literature review of adaptation options and the adaptation solution space to counter the city’s flood problem. Results indicate that the perceived solution space is skewed towards protection against flooding, while soft and hybrid adaptation options are less considered. This significantly influences flood risk management, including its effectiveness and sustainability.
Mihai Ciprian Mărgărint, Mihai Niculiță, Giulia Roder, and Paolo Tarolli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3251–3283,Short summary
Local stakeholders' knowledge plays a deciding role in emergencies, supporting rescue officers in natural hazard events; coordinating; and assisting, both physically and psychologically, the affected populations. Their risk perception was assessed using a questionnaire for an area in north-eastern Romania. The results show low preparedness and reveal substantial distinctions among stakeholders and different risks based on their cognitive and behavioral roles in their communities.
Meng Zhang, Xue Qiao, Barnabas C. Seyler, Baofeng Di, Yuan Wang, and Ya Tang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3243–3250,Short summary
Earthquake early warning systems (EEWSs) can help reduce losses, but their effectiveness depends on adequate public perception and understanding of EEWSs. This study examined the performance of the EEWS in China's Sichuan Province during the 2019 Changning earthquake. We found a big gap existed between the EEWS's message, the public's perception of it, and their response. The study highlights the importance of gauging EEWS alert effectiveness and public participation for long-term resiliency.
Mohammad Shirvani and Georges Kesserwani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3175–3198,Short summary
Flooding in and around urban hubs can stress people. Immediate evacuation is a usual countermeasure taken at the onset of a flooding event. The flood–pedestrian simulator simulates evacuation of people prior to and during a flood event. It provides information on the spatio-temporal responses of individuals, evacuation time, and possible safe destinations. This study demonstrates the simulator when considering more realistic human body and age characteristics and responses to floodwater.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3097–3112,Short summary
This paper reports a brief history of volcanic risk in the Neapolitan district, where the presence of three active volcanoes (Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei caldera and Ischia island) exposes this highly urbanized area to hazard of potential eruptions. I am trying to obtain new food for thought for the scientific community working to mitigate the volcanic risk of this area, revisiting about 40 years of debates around volcanic risk in Naples.
David Nortes Martínez, Frédéric Grelot, Pauline Brémond, Stefano Farolfi, and Juliette Rouchier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3057–3084,Short summary
Estimating flood damage, although crucial for assessing flood risk and for designing mitigation policies, continues to face numerous challenges, notably the assessment of indirect damage. We focus on flood damage induced by the interactions between economic activities. By modeling the production processes of a cooperative wine-making system, we show that these interactions are important depending on their spatial and temporal characteristics.
Danhua Xin, James Edward Daniell, Hing-Ho Tsang, and Friedemann Wenzel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3031–3056,Short summary
A grid-level residential building stock model (in terms of floor area and replacement value) targeted for seismic risk analysis for mainland China is developed by using census and population density data. Comparisons with previous studies and yearbook records indicate the reliability of our model. The modelled results are openly accessible and can be conveniently updated when more detailed census or statistics data are available.
Elena Mondino, Anna Scolobig, Marco Borga, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2811–2828,Short summary
Survey data collected over time can provide new insights on how different people respond to floods and can be used in models to study the complex coevolution of human–water systems. We present two methods to collect such data, and we compare the respective results. Risk awareness decreases only for women, while preparedness takes different trajectories depending on the damage suffered. These results support a more diverse representation of society in flood risk modelling and risk management.
Max Schneider, Michelle McDowell, Peter Guttorp, E. Ashley Steel, and Nadine Fleischhut
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
Aftershock forecasts are desired for risk response but public communications often omit their uncertainty. We evaluate three uncertainty visualization designs for aftershock forecast maps. In an online experiment, participants complete map-reading and judgment tasks relevant across natural hazards. While all designs reveal which areas are likely to have many or no aftershocks, one design can also convey that areas with high uncertainty can have more aftershocks than forecasted.
Paula Freire, Marta Rodrigues, André B. Fortunato, and Alberto Freitas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2503–2521,Short summary
This paper presents a risk assessment approach addressing the two main natural risks that affect agricultural estuarine lowlands: the scarcity of freshwater for irrigation and marine submersion. The approach is applied to an important agricultural area located in the Tagus Estuary (Portugal). Results show that the approach is appropriate to support risk owners in taking actions to mitigate the risk mainly when the possible impact of climate change in risk levels is considered.
Ruth Stephan, Mathilde Erfurt, Stefano Terzi, Maja Žun, Boštjan Kristan, Klaus Haslinger, and Kerstin Stahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2485–2501,Short summary
The Alpine Drought Impact report Inventory (EDIIALPS) archives drought impact reports across the European Alpine region with an increasing number of impacts over time. The most affected sectors are agriculture and livestock farming and public water supply, for which management strategies are essential for future climate regimes. We show spatial heterogeneity and seasonal differences between the impacted sectors and between impacts triggered by soil moisture drought and hydrological drought.
Luigi Cesarini, Rui Figueiredo, Beatrice Monteleone, and Mario L. V. Martina
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2379–2405,Short summary
Weather index insurance is an innovative program used to manage the risk associated with natural disasters, providing instantaneous financial support to the insured party. This paper proposes a methodology that exploits the power of machine learning to identify extreme events for which a payout from the insurance could be delivered. The improvements achieved using these algorithms are an encouraging step forward in the promotion and implementation of this insurance instrument.
Marthe L. K. Wens, Anne F. van Loon, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
In this manuscript, we present an application of the empirically calibrated drought risk adaptation model ADOPT for the case of smallholder farmers in the Kenyan drylands. ADOPT is used to assess the effect of various drought risk reduction interventions on individual and community drought risk. Moreover, the robustness of these (non-)governmental interventions under different climate change scenarios – wetter, hotter and dryer conditions – was evaluated.
Maud H. Devès, Robin Lacassin, Hugues Pécout, and Geoffrey Robert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript under review for NHESSShort summary
This paper focuses on risk governance and more specifically on how scientific information flows from where it is produced to where it is used for risk reduction (public decision, media, information of population likely to be affected). It builds from the analysis of the unique seismic-volcanic crisis in Mayotte, France to make recommendations for improving risk communication strategies in contexts where comparable geo-crises may occur.
Qinke Sun, Jiayi Fang, Xuewei Dang, Kepeng Xu, Yongqiang Fang, Xia Li, and Min Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript under review for NHESSShort summary
Flooding by extreme weather events and human activities can lead to catastrophic impacts in coastal areas. The research illustrates the importance of assessing the performance of different future urban development scenarios in response to climate change, and the simulation study of urban risks will prove to decision-makers that incorporating disaster prevention measures into urban development plans will help reduce disaster losses and improve the ability of urban systems to respond to floods.
Chiara Arrighi, Maria Pregnolato, and Fabio Castelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1955–1969,Short summary
Floods may affect critical infrastructure which provides essential services to people. We analyse the impact of floods on road networks and water supply systems, and we investigate how cascade effects propagate if interdependencies among networks are not considered. The analysis shows that if preparedness plans include information on accessibility to key sections of water supply plants, less people suffer from water shortage in case of flood. The method is tested in the city of Florence (Italy).
Donghoon Lee, Hassan Ahmadul, Jonathan Patz, and Paul Block
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1807–1823,Short summary
This article assesses the thematic and composite social and health vulnerability of Bangladesh to floods. Tailored vulnerability, weighted by flood forecast and satellite inundation, can be used to predict the massive impacts of the August 2017 flood event. This approach has several advantages and practical implications, including the potential to promote targeted and coordinated disaster management and health practices.
Guilherme S. Mohor, Annegret H. Thieken, and Oliver Korup
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1599–1614,Short summary
We explored differences in the damaging process across different flood types, regions within Germany, and six flood events through a numerical model in which the groups can learn from each other. Differences were found mostly across flood types, indicating the importance of identifying them, but there is great overlap across regions and flood events, indicating either that socioeconomic or temporal information was not well represented or that they are in fact less different within our cases.
Luana Lavagnoli Moreira, Mariana Madruga de Brito, and Masato Kobiyama
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1513–1530,Short summary
The review of flood vulnerability indices revealed that (1) temporal dynamic aspects were often disregarded, (2) coping and adaptive capacity indicators were frequently ignored, as obtaining these data demand time and effort, and (3) most studies neither applied sensitivity (90.5 %) or uncertainty analyses (96.8 %) nor validated the results (86.3 %). The study highlights the importance of addressing these gaps to produce scientifically rigorous and comparable research.
Kai Wan Yuen, Tang Thi Hanh, Vu Duong Quynh, Adam D. Switzer, Paul Teng, and Janice Ser Huay Lee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1473–1493,Short summary
We used flow diagrams to represent the ways in which anthropogenic land use and natural hazards have affected rice production in the two mega-deltas of Vietnam. Anthropogenic developments meant to improve productivity may create negative feedbacks on rice production and quality. Natural hazards further amplify problems created by human activities. A systems-thinking approach can yield nuanced perspectives for tackling environmental challenges.
Yanshen Wu, Hao Guo, Anyu Zhang, and Jing'ai Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1209–1228,Short summary
To improve the quantitative degree of spatial analysis of vulnerability, we construct grid-scale drought vulnerability curves of European winter wheat based on model simulation, and we discuss their spatial differences through feature points and clustering features. These vulnerability curves show zonal differences, which can be divided into five loss types, and the vulnerability increases from south to north. The results can provide guidance for regionalized risk management.
Ringo Ossewaarde, Tatiana Filatova, Yola Georgiadou, Andreas Hartmann, Gül Özerol, Karin Pfeffer, Peter Stegmaier, Rene Torenvlied, Mascha van der Voort, Jord Warmink, and Bas Borsje
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1119–1133,Short summary
The aim of this paper is to review and structure current developments in resilience research in the field of climate change studies, in terms of the approaches, definitions, models, and commitments that are typical for naturalist and constructivist research and propose a research agenda of topics distilled from current developments in resilience research.
Narjiss Satour, Otmane Raji, Nabil El Moçayd, Ilias Kacimi, and Nadia Kassou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1101–1118,
Nathalie Long, Pierre Cornut, and Virginia Kolb
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1087–1100,Short summary
Climate change is leading to an increase in extreme events and enforces the development of adaptation strategies to face coastal risk. These strategies modify the inequalities barely considered during the decision-making process and question the resilience of these territories. On the French Atlantic coast, the study reveals that the
managed retreatstrategy seems the most sustainable over time, while the
holding the coastlinestrategy reinforces inequalities and costs for the whole society.
Marco Cerri, Max Steinhausen, Heidi Kreibich, and Kai Schröter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 643–662,Short summary
Effective flood management requires information about the potential consequences of flooding. We show how openly accessible data from OpenStreetMap can support the estimation of flood damage for residential buildings. Working with methods of machine learning, the building geometry is used to predict flood damage in combination with information about inundation depth. Our approach makes it easier to transfer models to regions where no detailed data of flood impacts have been observed yet.
Si Wang, Lin Mu, Zhenfeng Yao, Jia Gao, Enjin Zhao, and Lizhe Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 439–462,Short summary
The study provides a comprehensive assessment and zonation of hazard, vulnerability, and risk of storm surge caused by the designed typhoon scenarios in the coastal area of Huizhou. The risk maps can help decision-makers to develop evacuation strategies to minimize civilian casualties. The risk analysis can be utilized to identify risk regions to reduce economic losses. The proposed methodology and procedure can be applied to any coastal city in China for making risk assessments.
Samuel Eberenz, Samuel Lüthi, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 393–415,Short summary
Asset damage caused by tropical cyclones is often computed based on impact functions mapping wind speed to damage. However, a lack of regional impact functions can lead to a substantial bias in tropical cyclone risk estimates. Here, we present regionally calibrated impact functions, as well as global risk estimates. Our results are relevant for researchers, model developers, and practitioners in the context of global risk assessments, climate change adaptation, and physical risk disclosure.
Christoph Welker, Thomas Röösli, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 279–299,Short summary
How representative are local building insurers' claims to assess winter windstorm risk? In our case study of Zurich, we use a risk model for windstorm building damages and compare three different inputs: insurance claims and historical and probabilistic windstorm datasets. We find that long-term risk is more robustly assessed based on windstorm datasets than on claims data only. Our open-access method allows European building insurers to complement their risk assessment with modelling results.
Marc Sanuy and Jose A. Jiménez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 219–238,
Sebastian Scheuer, Dagmar Haase, Annegret Haase, Manuel Wolff, and Thilo Wellmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 203–217,Short summary
The choice of residential location is one of the drivers shaping risks in cities. We model likely outcomes of this decision-making process for distinct socioeconomic groups in the city of Leipzig, Germany, using random forests and geostatistical methods. In so doing, we uncover hot spots and cold spots that may indicate spatial patterns and trends in exposure and vulnerabilities of urban population, to shed light on how residential location choice affects these risk components as a process.
Joel C. Gill, Faith E. Taylor, Melanie J. Duncan, Solmaz Mohadjer, Mirianna Budimir, Hassan Mdala, and Vera Bukachi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 187–202,Short summary
This paper draws on the experiences of seven early career scientists, in different sectors and contexts, to explore the improved integration of natural hazard science into broader efforts to reduce the likelihood and impacts of disasters. We include recommendations for natural hazard scientists, to improve education, training, and research design and to strengthen institutional, financial, and policy actions. We hope to provoke discussion and catalyse changes that will help reduce disaster risk.
Delioma Oramas-Dorta, Giulio Tirabassi, Guillermo Franco, and Christina Magill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 99–113,Short summary
Large volcanic eruptions are rare events; however, they may cause significant economic losses. This work explores a specific type of insurance (parametric insurance) applied to such events. Unlike traditional insurance where payouts occur after often lengthy loss assessments, this type of insurance makes automatic and prompt payments on the basis of the eruption attaining threshold values for objective and easily measurable characteristics (height and direction of the eruption column).
Stefan Oberndorfer, Philip Sander, and Sven Fuchs
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3135–3160,Short summary
The article provides a comparison of a standard (deterministic) risk assessment approach for roads exposed to a multi-hazard environment with a probabilistic risk analysis method to show the potential bias in the results. A probabilistic approach enables the quantification of epistemic uncertainty and uses probability distributions to characterize data uncertainty of the input variables, while a deterministic computation uses single values with discrete values without uncertainty representation.
Alexandra Nauditt, Kerstin Stahl, Erasmo Rodríguez, Christian Birkel, Rosa Maria Formiga-Johnsson, Kallio Marko, Hamish Hann, Lars Ribbe, Oscar M. Baez-Villanueva, and Joschka Thurner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Manuscript not accepted for further reviewShort summary
Recurrent droughts are causing severe damages to tropical countries. We used gridded drought hazard and vulnerability data sets to map drought risk in four mesoscale rural tropical study regions in Latin America and Vietnam/Cambodia. Our risk maps clearly identified drought risk hotspots and displayed spatial and sector-wise distribution of hazard and vulnerability. As results were confirmed by local stakeholders our approach provides relevant information for drought managers in the Tropics.
Daniela Molinari, Anna Rita Scorzini, Chiara Arrighi, Francesca Carisi, Fabio Castelli, Alessio Domeneghetti, Alice Gallazzi, Marta Galliani, Frédéric Grelot, Patric Kellermann, Heidi Kreibich, Guilherme S. Mohor, Markus Mosimann, Stephanie Natho, Claire Richert, Kai Schroeter, Annegret H. Thieken, Andreas Paul Zischg, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2997–3017,Short summary
Flood risk management requires a realistic estimation of flood losses. However, the capacity of available flood damage models to depict real damages is questionable. With a joint effort of eight research groups, the objective of this study was to compare the performances of nine models for the estimation of flood damage to buildings. The comparison provided more objective insights on the transferability of the models and on the reliability of their estimations.
Marta Galliani, Daniela Molinari, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2937–2941,Short summary
INSYDE is a multivariable synthetic model for flood damage assessment of dwellings. The analysis and use of this model highlighted some weaknesses, linked to its complexity, that can undermine its usability and correct implementation. This study proposes a simplified version of INSYDE which maintains its multivariable and synthetic nature but has simpler mathematical formulations permitting an easier use and a direct analysis of the relation between damage and its explanatory variables.
Gemma Cremen and Maximilian J. Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2701–2719,Short summary
We develop a framework that links the volume of hydraulic fracturing fluid injected during shale gas exploration with the likelihood that resulting seismicity causes a nuisance to nearby populations. We apply the framework to a shale gas site in England and find that the potential of a given injected volume to produce nuisance ground motions is especially sensitive to assumptions about the amount of seismic energy released during operations. The work can inform policy on shale gas exploration.
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A neural network model based on publicly available data was developed to forecast the number of housing units for each of 1000 counties in the southeastern United States in each of the next 20 years. The estimated number of housing units is almost always (97 % of the time) less than 1 percentage point different than the observed number, which are predictive errors acceptable for most practical purposes. The housing unit projections can help quantify changes in future expected hurricane impacts.
A neural network model based on publicly available data was developed to forecast the number of...