Articles | Volume 21, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021
Research article
 | 
11 Mar 2021
Research article |  | 11 Mar 2021

Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change

Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Folmer Krikken, Sophie Lewis, Nicholas J. Leach, Flavio Lehner, Kate R. Saunders, Michiel van Weele, Karsten Haustein, Sihan Li, David Wallom, Sarah Sparrow, Julie Arrighi, Roop K. Singh, Maarten K. van Aalst, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Robert Vautard, and Friederike E. L. Otto

Related authors

Attribution of the role of climate change in the forest fires in Sweden 2018
Folmer Krikken, Flavio Lehner, Karsten Haustein, Igor Drobyshev, and Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2169–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2169-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2169-2021, 2021
Short summary
Impact of precipitation and increasing temperatures on drought trends in eastern Africa
Sarah F. Kew, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Mathias Hauser, Mike Hobbins, Niko Wanders, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Karin van der Wiel, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, Joyce Kimutai, Chris Funk, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 17–35, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-17-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-17-2021, 2021
Short summary
A protocol for probabilistic extreme event attribution analyses
Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike Otto, Robert Vautard, Karin van der Wiel, Andrew King, Fraser Lott, Julie Arrighi, Roop Singh, and Maarten van Aalst
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 6, 177–203, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-177-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-177-2020, 2020
Short summary
Human influence on European winter wind storms such as those of January 2018
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, Pascal Yiou, Hylke de Vries, Erik van Meijgaard, Andrew Stepek, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Cecilia Costella, Roop Singh, and Claudia Tebaldi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 271–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019, 2019
Short summary
Attributing the 2017 Bangladesh floods from meteorological and hydrological perspectives
Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Sparrow, Sarah F. Kew, Karin van der Wiel, Niko Wanders, Roop Singh, Ahmadul Hassan, Khaled Mohammed, Hammad Javid, Karsten Haustein, Friederike E. L. Otto, Feyera Hirpa, Ruksana H. Rimi, A. K. M. Saiful Islam, David C. H. Wallom, and Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1409–1429, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1409-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1409-2019, 2019
Short summary

Related subject area

Other Hazards (e.g., Glacial and Snow Hazards, Karst, Wildfires Hazards, and Medical Geo-Hazards)
A new approach for drought index adjustment to clay-shrinkage-induced subsidence over France: advantages of the interactive leaf area index
Sophie Barthelemy, Bertrand Bonan, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Gilles Grandjean, David Moncoulon, Dorothée Kapsambelis, and Séverine Bernardie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 999–1016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-999-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-999-2024, 2024
Short summary
Automated Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) mapping – local validation and optimization in western Canada
John Sykes, Håvard Toft, Pascal Haegeli, and Grant Statham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 947–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-947-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-947-2024, 2024
Short summary
Improving the fire weather index system for peatlands using peat-specific hydrological input data
Jonas Mortelmans, Anne Felsberg, Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy, Sander Veraverbeke, Robert D. Field, Niels Andela, and Michel Bechtold
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 445–464, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Brief communication: The Lahaina Fire disaster – how models can be used to understand and predict wildfires
Timothy W. Juliano, Fernando Szasdi-Bardales, Neil P. Lareau, Kasra Shamsaei, Branko Kosović, Negar Elhami-Khorasani, Eric P. James, and Hamed Ebrahimian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 47–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-47-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-47-2024, 2024
Short summary
Prediction of natural dry-snow avalanche activity using physics-based snowpack simulations
Stephanie Mayer, Frank Techel, Jürg Schweizer, and Alec van Herwijnen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3445–3465, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023, 2023
Short summary

Cited articles

Abatzoglou, J. T., Williams, A. P., and Barbero, R.: Global Emergence of Anthropogenic Climate Change in Fire Weather Indices, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 326–336, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080959, 2019. a
Agard, J., Schipper, E. L. F., Birkmann, J., Campos, M., Dubeux, C., Nojiri, Y., Olsson, J., Osman-Elasha, B., Pelling, M., Prather, M. J., Rivera-Ferre, M. G., Ruppel, O. C., Sallenger, A., Smith, K. R., and St. Clair, A. L.: AR5 Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: Annex II Glossary, Cambridge University Press, New York, 2014. a, b
Black, M. T., Karoly, D. J., and King, A. D.: The contribution of anthropogenic forcing to the Adelaide and Melbourne, Australia, heat waves of January 2014, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, S145–S148, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00097.1, 2015. a
Boucher, O., Servonnat, J., Albright, A. L., Aumont, O. Y. B., Bastriko, V., Bekki, S., Bonnet, R., Bony, S., Bopp, L., Braconnot, P., Brockmann, P., Cadule, P., Caubel, A., Cheru, F., Cozic, A., Cugnet, D., D'Andrea, F., Davini, P., de Lavergne, C., Denvil, S., Deshayes, J., M., D., Ducharne, A., Dufresne, J.-L., Dupont, E., Ethé, C., Fairhead, L., Falletti, L., Foujols, M.-A., Gardoll, S., Gastinea, G. J. G., Grandpeix, J.-Y., Guenet, B., Guez, L., Guilyardi, E., Guimberteau, M., Hauglustaine, D., Hourdin, F., Idelkadi, A., Joussaume, S., Kageyama, M., Khadre-Traoré, A., Khodri, M., Krinner, G., Lebas, N., Levavasseur, G., Lévy, C., Li, L., Lott, F., Lurton, T., Luyssaert, S. G. M., Madeleine, J.-B., Maignan, F., Marchand, M., Marti, O., Mellul, L., Meurdesoif, Y., Mignot, J., Musat, I., Ottlé, C., Peylin, P., Planton, Y., Polcher, J., Rio, C., Rousset, C., Sepulchre, P., Sima, A., Swingedouw, D., Thieblemont, R., Traoré, A., Vancoppenolle, M., Vial, J., Vialard, J., Viovy, N., and Vuichard, N.: Presentation an evaluation of the IPSL-CM6A-LR climate model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 12, e2019MS002010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002010, 2020. a
Bryant, R. A., Waters, E., Gibbs, L., Gallagher, H. C., Pattison, P., Lusher, D., MacDougall, C., Harms, L., Block, K., Snowdon, E., Sinnott, V., Ireton, G., Richardson, J., and Forbes, D.: Psychological outcomes following the Victorian Black Saturday bushfires, Aust. New Zeal. J. Psych., 48, 634–643, https://doi.org/10.1177/0004867414534476, 2014. a
Download
Short summary
Southeastern Australia suffered from disastrous bushfires during the 2019/20 fire season, raising the question whether these have become more likely due to climate change. We found no attributable trend in extreme annual or monthly low precipitation but a clear shift towards more extreme heat. However, this shift is underestimated by the models. Analysing fire weather directly, we found that the chance has increased by at least 30 %, but due to the underestimation it could well be higher.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint