Articles | Volume 21, issue 3
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 941–960, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 941–960, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021
Research article
11 Mar 2021
Research article | 11 Mar 2021

Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change

Geert Jan van Oldenborgh et al.

Related authors

Attribution of the role of climate change in the forest fires in Sweden 2018
Folmer Krikken, Flavio Lehner, Karsten Haustein, Igor Drobyshev, and Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2169–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2169-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2169-2021, 2021
Short summary
Impact of precipitation and increasing temperatures on drought trends in eastern Africa
Sarah F. Kew, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Mathias Hauser, Mike Hobbins, Niko Wanders, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Karin van der Wiel, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, Joyce Kimutai, Chris Funk, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 17–35, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-17-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-17-2021, 2021
Short summary
A protocol for probabilistic extreme event attribution analyses
Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike Otto, Robert Vautard, Karin van der Wiel, Andrew King, Fraser Lott, Julie Arrighi, Roop Singh, and Maarten van Aalst
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 6, 177–203, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-177-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-177-2020, 2020
Short summary
Human influence on European winter wind storms such as those of January 2018
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, Pascal Yiou, Hylke de Vries, Erik van Meijgaard, Andrew Stepek, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Cecilia Costella, Roop Singh, and Claudia Tebaldi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 271–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019, 2019
Short summary
Attributing the 2017 Bangladesh floods from meteorological and hydrological perspectives
Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Sparrow, Sarah F. Kew, Karin van der Wiel, Niko Wanders, Roop Singh, Ahmadul Hassan, Khaled Mohammed, Hammad Javid, Karsten Haustein, Friederike E. L. Otto, Feyera Hirpa, Ruksana H. Rimi, A. K. M. Saiful Islam, David C. H. Wallom, and Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1409–1429, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1409-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1409-2019, 2019
Short summary

Related subject area

Other Hazards (e.g., Glacial and Snow Hazards, Karst, Wildfires Hazards, and Medical Geo-Hazards)
What weather variables are important for wet and slab avalanches under a changing climate in a low-altitude mountain range in Czechia?
Markéta Součková, Roman Juras, Kryštof Dytrt, Vojtěch Moravec, Johanna Ruth Blöcher, and Martin Hanel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3501–3525, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3501-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3501-2022, 2022
Short summary
Modelling ignition probability for human- and lightning-caused wildfires in Victoria, Australia
Annalie Dorph, Erica Marshall, Kate A. Parkins, and Trent D. Penman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3487–3499, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3487-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3487-2022, 2022
Short summary
Automated snow avalanche release area delineation in data-sparse, remote, and forested regions
John Sykes, Pascal Haegeli, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3247–3270, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3247-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3247-2022, 2022
Short summary
The 2017 Split wildfire in Croatia: evolution and the role of meteorological conditions
Ivana Čavlina Tomašević, Kevin K. W. Cheung, Višnjica Vučetić, Paul Fox-Hughes, Kristian Horvath, Maja Telišman Prtenjak, Paul J. Beggs, Barbara Malečić, and Velimir Milić
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3143–3165, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3143-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3143-2022, 2022
Short summary
Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021): a research community perspective
Adam Emmer, Simon K. Allen, Mark Carey, Holger Frey, Christian Huggel, Oliver Korup, Martin Mergili, Ashim Sattar, Georg Veh, Thomas Y. Chen, Simon J. Cook, Mariana Correas-Gonzalez, Soumik Das, Alejandro Diaz Moreno, Fabian Drenkhan, Melanie Fischer, Walter W. Immerzeel, Eñaut Izagirre, Ramesh Chandra Joshi, Ioannis Kougkoulos, Riamsara Kuyakanon Knapp, Dongfeng Li, Ulfat Majeed, Stephanie Matti, Holly Moulton, Faezeh Nick, Valentine Piroton, Irfan Rashid, Masoom Reza, Anderson Ribeiro de Figueiredo, Christian Riveros, Finu Shrestha, Milan Shrestha, Jakob Steiner, Noah Walker-Crawford, Joanne L. Wood, and Jacob C. Yde
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3041–3061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, 2022
Short summary

Cited articles

Abatzoglou, J. T., Williams, A. P., and Barbero, R.: Global Emergence of Anthropogenic Climate Change in Fire Weather Indices, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 326–336, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080959, 2019. a
Agard, J., Schipper, E. L. F., Birkmann, J., Campos, M., Dubeux, C., Nojiri, Y., Olsson, J., Osman-Elasha, B., Pelling, M., Prather, M. J., Rivera-Ferre, M. G., Ruppel, O. C., Sallenger, A., Smith, K. R., and St. Clair, A. L.: AR5 Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: Annex II Glossary, Cambridge University Press, New York, 2014. a, b
Black, M. T., Karoly, D. J., and King, A. D.: The contribution of anthropogenic forcing to the Adelaide and Melbourne, Australia, heat waves of January 2014, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, S145–S148, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00097.1, 2015. a
Boucher, O., Servonnat, J., Albright, A. L., Aumont, O. Y. B., Bastriko, V., Bekki, S., Bonnet, R., Bony, S., Bopp, L., Braconnot, P., Brockmann, P., Cadule, P., Caubel, A., Cheru, F., Cozic, A., Cugnet, D., D'Andrea, F., Davini, P., de Lavergne, C., Denvil, S., Deshayes, J., M., D., Ducharne, A., Dufresne, J.-L., Dupont, E., Ethé, C., Fairhead, L., Falletti, L., Foujols, M.-A., Gardoll, S., Gastinea, G. J. G., Grandpeix, J.-Y., Guenet, B., Guez, L., Guilyardi, E., Guimberteau, M., Hauglustaine, D., Hourdin, F., Idelkadi, A., Joussaume, S., Kageyama, M., Khadre-Traoré, A., Khodri, M., Krinner, G., Lebas, N., Levavasseur, G., Lévy, C., Li, L., Lott, F., Lurton, T., Luyssaert, S. G. M., Madeleine, J.-B., Maignan, F., Marchand, M., Marti, O., Mellul, L., Meurdesoif, Y., Mignot, J., Musat, I., Ottlé, C., Peylin, P., Planton, Y., Polcher, J., Rio, C., Rousset, C., Sepulchre, P., Sima, A., Swingedouw, D., Thieblemont, R., Traoré, A., Vancoppenolle, M., Vial, J., Vialard, J., Viovy, N., and Vuichard, N.: Presentation an evaluation of the IPSL-CM6A-LR climate model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 12, e2019MS002010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002010, 2020. a
Bryant, R. A., Waters, E., Gibbs, L., Gallagher, H. C., Pattison, P., Lusher, D., MacDougall, C., Harms, L., Block, K., Snowdon, E., Sinnott, V., Ireton, G., Richardson, J., and Forbes, D.: Psychological outcomes following the Victorian Black Saturday bushfires, Aust. New Zeal. J. Psych., 48, 634–643, https://doi.org/10.1177/0004867414534476, 2014. a
Download
Short summary
Southeastern Australia suffered from disastrous bushfires during the 2019/20 fire season, raising the question whether these have become more likely due to climate change. We found no attributable trend in extreme annual or monthly low precipitation but a clear shift towards more extreme heat. However, this shift is underestimated by the models. Analysing fire weather directly, we found that the chance has increased by at least 30 %, but due to the underestimation it could well be higher.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint