Articles | Volume 21, issue 3
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 941–960, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 941–960, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021

Research article 11 Mar 2021

Research article | 11 Mar 2021

Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change

Geert Jan van Oldenborgh et al.

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (13 Nov 2020) by Joaquim G. Pinto
AR by Geert Jan van Oldenborgh on behalf of the Authors (21 Dec 2020)  Author's response    Author's tracked changes    Manuscript
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (22 Dec 2020) by Joaquim G. Pinto
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (23 Dec 2020) by Joaquim G. Pinto
RR by Anonymous Referee #4 (29 Dec 2020)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (28 Jan 2021)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (28 Jan 2021) by Joaquim G. Pinto
AR by Geert Jan van Oldenborgh on behalf of the Authors (30 Jan 2021)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (01 Feb 2021) by Joaquim G. Pinto
AR by Geert Jan van Oldenborgh on behalf of the Authors (08 Feb 2021)  Author's response    Manuscript
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Short summary
Southeastern Australia suffered from disastrous bushfires during the 2019/20 fire season, raising the question whether these have become more likely due to climate change. We found no attributable trend in extreme annual or monthly low precipitation but a clear shift towards more extreme heat. However, this shift is underestimated by the models. Analysing fire weather directly, we found that the chance has increased by at least 30 %, but due to the underestimation it could well be higher.
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