Articles | Volume 21, issue 3
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 941–960, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 941–960, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021
Research article
11 Mar 2021
Research article | 11 Mar 2021

Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change

Geert Jan van Oldenborgh et al.

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Latest update: 07 Dec 2022
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Short summary
Southeastern Australia suffered from disastrous bushfires during the 2019/20 fire season, raising the question whether these have become more likely due to climate change. We found no attributable trend in extreme annual or monthly low precipitation but a clear shift towards more extreme heat. However, this shift is underestimated by the models. Analysing fire weather directly, we found that the chance has increased by at least 30 %, but due to the underestimation it could well be higher.
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