Articles | Volume 21, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3663-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3663-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
03 Dec 2021
Research article |
| 03 Dec 2021
| 03 Dec 2021
Data-based wildfire risk model for Mediterranean ecosystems – case study of the Concepción metropolitan area in central Chile
Edilia Jaque Castillo
Departamento de Geografía, Universidad de Concepción,
Concepción, Chile
Departamento de Geografía, Universidad de Concepción,
Concepción, Chile
Rodrigo Fuentes Robles
Laboratorio de Ecología de Paisaje (LEP), Facultad de Ciencias Forestales, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción,
Chile
Carolina G. Ojeda
Facultad de Comunicación, Historia y Cs. Sociales, Universidad
Católica de la Santísima Concepción, Concepción, Chile
Related authors
No articles found.
Mathieu Casado, Gwenaëlle Gremion, Paul Rosenbaum, Jilda Alicia Caccavo, Kelsey Aho, Nicolas Champollion, Sarah L. Connors, Adrian Dahood, Alfonso Fernandez, Martine Lizotte, Katja Mintenbeck, Elvira Poloczanska, and Gerlis Fugmann
Geosci. Commun., 3, 89–97, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-89-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-89-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Early-career scientists (ECSs) are rarely invited to act as peer reviewers. Participating in a group peer review of the IPCC Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, PhD students spent more time reviewing than more established scientists and provided a similar proportion of substantive comments. By soliciting and including ECSs in peer review, the scientific community would reduce the burden on more established scientists and may improve the quality of that process.
Alfonso Fernández, Ariel Muñoz, Álvaro González-Reyes, Isabella Aguilera-Betti, Isadora Toledo, Paulina Puchi, David Sauchyn, Sebastián Crespo, Cristian Frene, Ignacio Mundo, Mauro González, and Raffaele Vignola
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2921–2935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2921-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2921-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Short-term river discharge records hamper assessment of the severity of modern droughts in south-central Chile, making effective water management difficult. To support decision-making, we present a ~300-year tree-ring reconstruction of summer discharge for this region. Results show that since 1980, droughts have become more frequent and are related to a shift in large-scale climate. We argue that water managers should use this long-term view to better allocate water rights.
Related subject area
Other Hazards (e.g., Glacial and Snow Hazards, Karst, Wildfires Hazards, and Medical Geo-Hazards)
A regional early warning for slushflow hazard
A new approach for drought index adjustment to clay-shrinkage-induced subsidence over France: advantages of the interactive leaf area index
Automated Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) mapping – local validation and optimization in western Canada
Improving the fire weather index system for peatlands using peat-specific hydrological input data
Brief communication: The Lahaina Fire disaster – how models can be used to understand and predict wildfires
Prediction of natural dry-snow avalanche activity using physics-based snowpack simulations
Modelling the vulnerability of urban settings to WUI fires in Chile
AutoATES v2.0: Automated avalanche terrain exposure scale mapping
Early warning system for ice collapses and river blockages in the Sedongpu Valley, southeastern Tibetan Plateau
Fire risk modeling: an integrated and data-driven approach applied to Sicily
Indoor 222Rn Modeling in Data-Scarce Regions: An Interactive Dashboard Approach for Bogotá, Colombia
Avalanche size estimation and avalanche outline determination by experts: reliability and implications for practice
Fluid conduits and shallow-reservoir structure defined by geoelectrical tomography at the Nirano Salse (Italy)
Estimating the effects of meteorology and land cover on fire growth in Peru using a novel difference equation model
Review article: Snow and ice avalanches in high mountain Asia – scientific, local and indigenous knowledge
Reduced-order digital twin and latent data assimilation for global wildfire prediction
A user perspective on the avalanche danger scale – insights from North America
Characterizing the rate of spread of large wildfires in emerging fire environments of northwestern Europe using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite active fire data
Evaluation of low-cost Raspberry Pi sensors for structure-from-motion reconstructions of glacier calving fronts
Temporal evolution of crack propagation characteristics in a weak snowpack layer: conditions of crack arrest and sustained propagation
A data-driven model for Fennoscandian wildfire danger
Equivalent hazard magnitude scale
Statistical modelling of air quality impacts from individual forest fires in New South Wales, Australia
Drivers of extreme burnt area in Portugal: fire weather and vegetation
Coupling wildfire spread simulations and connectivity analysis for hazard assessment: a case study in Serra da Cabreira, Portugal
Glacial lake outburst flood hazard under current and future conditions: worst-case scenarios in a transboundary Himalayan basin
What weather variables are important for wet and slab avalanches under a changing climate in a low-altitude mountain range in Czechia?
Modelling ignition probability for human- and lightning-caused wildfires in Victoria, Australia
Automated snow avalanche release area delineation in data-sparse, remote, and forested regions
The 2017 Split wildfire in Croatia: evolution and the role of meteorological conditions
Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021): a research community perspective
Global assessment and mapping of ecological vulnerability to wildfires
The impact of terrain model source and resolution on snow avalanche modeling
Travel and terrain advice statements in public avalanche bulletins: a quantitative analysis of who uses this information, what makes it useful, and how it can be improved for users
Data-driven automated predictions of the avalanche danger level for dry-snow conditions in Switzerland
On the correlation between a sub-level qualifier refining the danger level with observations and models relating to the contributing factors of avalanche danger
Automated avalanche hazard indication mapping on a statewide scale
Forecasting the regional fire radiative power for regularly ignited vegetation fires
Environmental factors affecting wildfire-burned areas in southeastern France, 1970–2019
Detrainment and braking of snow avalanches interacting with forests
Past and future trends in fire weather for the UK
Methodological and conceptual challenges in rare and severe event forecast verification
Multi-method monitoring of rockfall activity along the classic route up Mont Blanc (4809 m a.s.l.) to encourage adaptation by mountaineers
Wildfire–atmosphere interaction index for extreme-fire behaviour
How is avalanche danger described in textual descriptions in avalanche forecasts in Switzerland? Consistency between forecasters and avalanche danger
The mud volcanoes at Santa Barbara and Aragona (Sicily, Italy): a contribution to risk assessment
Impact of information presentation on interpretability of spatial hazard information: lessons from a study in avalanche safety
ABWiSE v1.0: toward an agent-based approach to simulating wildfire spread
Multi-decadal geomorphic changes of a low-angle valley glacier in the East Kunlun Mountains: remote sensing observations and detachment hazard assessment
Spatial and temporal subsidence characteristics in Wuhan (China), during 2015–2019, inferred from Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry
Monica Sund, Heidi A. Grønsten, and Siv Å. Seljesæter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1185–1201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1185-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1185-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Slushflows are rapid mass movements of water-saturated snow released in gently sloping terrain (< 30°), often unexpectedly. Early warning is crucial to prevent casualties and damage to infrastructure. A regional early warning for slushflow hazard was established in Norway in 2013–2014 and has been operational since. We present a methodology using the ratio between water supply and snow depth by snow type to assess slushflow hazard. This approach is useful for other areas with slushflow hazard.
Sophie Barthelemy, Bertrand Bonan, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Gilles Grandjean, David Moncoulon, Dorothée Kapsambelis, and Séverine Bernardie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 999–1016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-999-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-999-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents a drought index specifically adapted to subsidence, a seasonal phenomenon of soil shrinkage that occurs frequently in France and damages buildings. The index is computed from land surface model simulations and evaluated by a rank correlation test with insurance data. With its optimal configuration, the index is able to identify years of both zero and significant loss.
John Sykes, Håvard Toft, Pascal Haegeli, and Grant Statham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 947–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-947-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-947-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The research validates and optimizes an automated approach for creating classified snow avalanche terrain maps using open-source geospatial modeling tools. Validation is based on avalanche-expert-based maps for two study areas. Our results show that automated maps have an overall accuracy equivalent to the average accuracy of three human maps. Automated mapping requires a fraction of the time and cost of traditional methods and opens the door for large-scale mapping of mountainous terrain.
Jonas Mortelmans, Anne Felsberg, Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy, Sander Veraverbeke, Robert D. Field, Niels Andela, and Michel Bechtold
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 445–464, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With global warming increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires in the boreal region, accurate risk assessments are becoming more crucial than ever before. The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is a renowned system, yet its effectiveness in peatlands, where hydrology plays a key role, is limited. By incorporating groundwater data from numerical models and satellite observations, our modified FWI improves the accuracy of fire danger predictions, especially over summer.
Timothy W. Juliano, Fernando Szasdi-Bardales, Neil P. Lareau, Kasra Shamsaei, Branko Kosović, Negar Elhami-Khorasani, Eric P. James, and Hamed Ebrahimian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 47–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-47-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-47-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Following the destructive Lahaina Fire in Hawaii, our team has modeled the wind and fire spread processes to understand the drivers of this devastating event. The simulation results show that extreme winds with high variability, a fire ignition close to the community, and construction characteristics led to continued fire spread in multiple directions. Our results suggest that available modeling capabilities can provide vital information to guide decision-making during wildfire events.
Stephanie Mayer, Frank Techel, Jürg Schweizer, and Alec van Herwijnen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3445–3465, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present statistical models to estimate the probability for natural dry-snow avalanche release and avalanche size based on the simulated layering of the snowpack. The benefit of these models is demonstrated in comparison with benchmark models based on the amount of new snow. From the validation with data sets of quality-controlled avalanche observations and danger levels, we conclude that these models may be valuable tools to support forecasting natural dry-snow avalanche activity.
Paula Aguirre, Jorge León, Constanza González-Mathiesen, Randy Román, Manuela Penas, and Alonso Ogueda
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2130, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2130, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfires pose a significant risk to property located in the Wildland-Urban Interface, WUI. To assess and mitigate this risk, we need to understand which characteristics of buildings and of building arrangements make them more prone to damage. We used a combination of data collection and analysis methods to study the vulnerability of dwellings in the WUI for seven case studies in Chile and concluded that the spatial arrangement of houses has substantial impact on their vulnerability to wildfires
Håvard Boutera Toft, John Sykes, Andrew Schauer, Jordy Hendrikx, and Audun Hetland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-114, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-114, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Manual avalanche terrain exposure scale (ATES) mapping is time-consuming and inefficient for large-scale applications. The updated algorithm for automated ATES mapping overcomes previous limitations by including forest density data, improving the avalanche runout estimations in low-angle runout zones, accounting for overhead exposure and open-source software. Results show that the latest version has significantly improved its performance.
Wei Yang, Zhongyan Wang, Baosheng An, Yingying Chen, Chuanxi Zhao, Chenhui Li, Yongjie Wang, Weicai Wang, Jiule Li, Guangjian Wu, Lin Bai, Fan Zhang, and Tandong Yao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3015–3029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3015-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3015-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present the structure and performance of the early warning system (EWS) for glacier collapse and river blockages in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The EWS warned of three collapse–river blockage chain events and seven small-scale events. The volume and location of the collapses and the percentage of ice content influenced the velocities of debris flows. Such a study is helpful for understanding the mechanism of glacier hazards and for establishing similar EWSs in other high-risk regions.
Alba Marquez Torres, Giovanni Signorello, Sudeshna Kumar, Greta Adamo, Ferdinando Villa, and Stefano Balbi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2937–2959, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2937-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2937-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Only by mapping fire risks can we manage forest and prevent fires under current and future climate conditions. We present a fire risk map based on k.LAB, artificial-intelligence-powered and open-source software integrating multidisciplinary knowledge in near real time. Through an easy-to-use web application, we model the hazard with 84 % accuracy for Sicily, a representative Mediterranean region. Fire risk analysis reveals 45 % of vulnerable areas face a high probability of danger in 2050.
Martín Domínguez Durán, María Angélica Sandoval Garzón, and Carme Huguet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1480, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1480, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we created a cost-effective alternative to bridge the baseline information gap of Indoor radon (A highly carcinogenic gas) in regions where measurements are scarce. We model indoor radon concentrations to understand its spatial distribution and the potential influential factors. We evaluated the performance of this alternative using a small number of measurements taken in Bogotá, Colombia. Our results show that this alternative could help in the making of future studies and policy.
Elisabeth D. Hafner, Frank Techel, Rodrigo Caye Daudt, Jan Dirk Wegner, Konrad Schindler, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2895–2914, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2895-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Oftentimes when objective measurements are not possible, human estimates are used instead. In our study, we investigate the reproducibility of human judgement for size estimates, the mappings of avalanches from oblique photographs and remotely sensed imagery. The variability that we found in those estimates is worth considering as it may influence results and should be kept in mind for several applications.
Gerardo Romano, Marco Antonellini, Domenico Patella, Agata Siniscalchi, Andrea Tallarico, Simona Tripaldi, and Antonello Piombo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2719–2735, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Nirano Salse (northern Apennines, Italy) is characterized by several active mud vents and hosts thousands of visitors every year. New resistivity models describe the area down to 250 m, improving our geostructural knowledge of the area and giving useful indications for a better understanding of mud volcano dynamics and for the better planning of safer tourist access to the area.
Harry Podschwit, William Jolly, Ernesto Alvarado, Andrea Markos, Satyam Verma, Sebastian Barreto-Rivera, Catherine Tobón-Cruz, and Blanca Ponce-Vigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2607–2624, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2607-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a model of fire spread that assumes that fire spreads in all directions at a constant speed and is extinguished at a constant rate. The model was fitted to 1003 fires in Peru between 2001 and 2020 using satellite burned area data from the GlobFire project. We fitted statistical models that predicted the spread and extinguish rates based on weather and land cover variables and found that these variables were good predictors of the spread and extinguish rates.
Anushilan Acharya, Jakob F. Steiner, Khwaja Momin Walizada, Salar Ali, Zakir Hussain Zakir, Arnaud Caiserman, and Teiji Watanabe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2569–2592, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2569-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2569-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
All accessible snow and ice avalanches together with previous scientific research, local knowledge, and existing or previously active adaptation and mitigation solutions were investigated in the high mountain Asia (HMA) region to have a detailed overview of the state of knowledge and identify gaps. A comprehensive avalanche database from 1972–2022 is generated, including 681 individual events. The database provides a basis for the forecasting of avalanche hazards in different parts of HMA.
Caili Zhong, Sibo Cheng, Matthew Kasoar, and Rossella Arcucci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1755–1768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1755-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1755-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces a digital twin fire model using machine learning techniques to improve the efficiency of global wildfire predictions. The proposed model also manages to efficiently adjust the prediction results thanks to data assimilation techniques. The proposed digital twin runs 500 times faster than the current state-of-the-art physics-based model.
Abby Morgan, Pascal Haegeli, Henry Finn, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1719–1742, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The avalanche danger scale is a critical component for communicating the severity of avalanche hazard conditions to the public. We examine how backcountry recreationists in North America understand and use the danger scale for planning trips into the backcountry. Our results provide an important user perspective on the strengths and weaknesses of the existing scale and highlight opportunities for future improvements.
Adrián Cardíl, Victor M. Tapia, Santiago Monedero, Tomás Quiñones, Kerryn Little, Cathelijne R. Stoof, Joaquín Ramirez, and Sergio de-Miguel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 361–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-361-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to unravel large-fire behavior in northwest Europe, a temperate region with a projected increase in wildfire risk. We propose a new method to identify wildfire rate of spread from satellites because it is important to know periods of elevated fire risk for suppression methods and land management. Results indicate that there is a peak in the area burned and rate of spread in the months of March and April, and there are significant differences for forest-type land covers.
Liam S. Taylor, Duncan J. Quincey, and Mark W. Smith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 329–341, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-329-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-329-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hazards from glaciers are becoming more likely as the climate warms, which poses a threat to communities living beneath them. We have developed a new camera system which can capture regular, high-quality 3D models to monitor small changes in glaciers which could be indicative of a future hazard. This system is far cheaper than more typical camera sensors yet produces very similar quality data. We suggest that deploying these cameras near glaciers could assist in warning communities of hazards.
Bastian Bergfeld, Alec van Herwijnen, Grégoire Bobillier, Philipp L. Rosendahl, Philipp Weißgraeber, Valentin Adam, Jürg Dual, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 293–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-293-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-293-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For a slab avalanche to release, the snowpack must facilitate crack propagation over large distances. Field measurements on crack propagation at this scale are very scarce. We performed a series of experiments, up to 10 m long, over a period of 10 weeks. Beside the temporal evolution of the mechanical properties of the snowpack, we found that crack speeds were highest for tests resulting in full propagation. Based on these findings, an index for self-sustained crack propagation is proposed.
Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke, Niko Wanders, Karin van der Wiel, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 65–89, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we developed a machine learning model to identify dominant controls of wildfire in Fennoscandia and produce monthly fire danger probability maps. The dominant control was shallow-soil water anomaly, followed by air temperature and deep soil water. The model proved skilful with a similar performance as the existing Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI). We highlight the benefit of using data-driven models jointly with other fire models to improve fire monitoring and prediction.
Yi Victor Wang and Antonia Sebastian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4103–4118, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4103-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4103-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this article, we propose an equivalent hazard magnitude scale and a method to evaluate and compare the strengths of natural hazard events across different hazard types, including earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, droughts, forest fires, tornadoes, cold waves, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. With our method, we determine that both the February 2021 North American cold wave event and Hurricane Harvey in 2017 were equivalent to a magnitude 7.5 earthquake in hazard strength.
Michael A. Storey and Owen F. Price
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4039–4062, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4039-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4039-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Models are needed to understand and predict pollutant output from forest fires so fire agencies can reduce smoke-related risks to human health. We modelled air quality (PM2.5) based on fire area and weather variables. We found fire area and boundary layer height were influential on predictions, with distance, temperature, wind speed and relative humidity also important. The models predicted reasonably accurately in comparison to other existing methods but would benefit from further development.
Tomás Calheiros, Akli Benali, Mário Pereira, João Silva, and João Nunes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4019–4037, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4019-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4019-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Fire weather indices are used to assess the effect of weather on wildfires. Fire weather risk was computed and combined with large wildfires in Portugal. Results revealed the influence of vegetation cover: municipalities with a prevalence of shrublands, located in eastern parts, burnt under less extreme conditions than those with higher forested areas, situated in coastal regions. These findings are a novelty for fire science in Portugal and should be considered for fire management.
Ana C. L. Sá, Bruno Aparicio, Akli Benali, Chiara Bruni, Michele Salis, Fábio Silva, Martinho Marta-Almeida, Susana Pereira, Alfredo Rocha, and José Pereira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3917–3938, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3917-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing landscape wildfire connectivity supported by wildfire spread simulations can improve fire hazard assessment and fuel management plans. Weather severity determines the degree of fuel patch connectivity and thus the potential to spread large and intense wildfires. Mapping highly connected patches in the landscape highlights patch candidates for prior fuel treatments, which ultimately will contribute to creating fire-resilient Mediterranean landscapes.
Simon K. Allen, Ashim Sattar, Owen King, Guoqing Zhang, Atanu Bhattacharya, Tandong Yao, and Tobias Bolch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3765–3785, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study demonstrates how the threat of a very large outburst from a future lake can be feasibly assessed alongside that from current lakes to inform disaster risk management within a transboundary basin between Tibet and Nepal. Results show that engineering measures and early warning systems would need to be coupled with effective land use zoning and programmes to strengthen local response capacities in order to effectively reduce the risk associated with current and future outburst events.
Markéta Součková, Roman Juras, Kryštof Dytrt, Vojtěch Moravec, Johanna Ruth Blöcher, and Martin Hanel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3501–3525, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3501-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3501-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Avalanches are natural hazards that threaten people and infrastructure. With climate change, avalanche activity is changing. We analysed the change in frequency and size of avalanches in the Krkonoše Mountains, Czechia, and detected important variables with machine learning tools from 1979–2020. Wet avalanches in February and March have increased, and slab avalanches have decreased and become smaller. The identified variables and their threshold levels may help in avalanche decision-making.
Annalie Dorph, Erica Marshall, Kate A. Parkins, and Trent D. Penman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3487–3499, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3487-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfire spatial patterns are determined by fire ignition sources and vegetation fuel moisture. Fire ignitions can be mediated by humans (owing to proximity to human infrastructure) or caused by lightning (owing to fuel moisture, average annual rainfall and local weather). When moisture in dead vegetation is below 20 % the probability of a wildfire increases. The results of this research enable accurate spatial mapping of ignition probability to aid fire suppression efforts and future research.
John Sykes, Pascal Haegeli, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3247–3270, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3247-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3247-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Automated snow avalanche terrain mapping provides an efficient method for large-scale assessment of avalanche hazards, which informs risk management decisions for transportation and recreation. This research reduces the cost of developing avalanche terrain maps by using satellite imagery and open-source software as well as improving performance in forested terrain. The research relies on local expertise to evaluate accuracy, so the methods are broadly applicable in mountainous regions worldwide.
Ivana Čavlina Tomašević, Kevin K. W. Cheung, Višnjica Vučetić, Paul Fox-Hughes, Kristian Horvath, Maja Telišman Prtenjak, Paul J. Beggs, Barbara Malečić, and Velimir Milić
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3143–3165, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3143-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3143-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
One of the most severe and impactful urban wildfire events in Croatian history has been reconstructed and analyzed. The study identified some important meteorological influences related to the event: the synoptic conditions of the Azores anticyclone, cold front, and upper-level shortwave trough all led to the highest fire weather index in 2017. A low-level jet, locally known as bura wind that can be explained by hydraulic jump theory, was the dynamic trigger of the event.
Adam Emmer, Simon K. Allen, Mark Carey, Holger Frey, Christian Huggel, Oliver Korup, Martin Mergili, Ashim Sattar, Georg Veh, Thomas Y. Chen, Simon J. Cook, Mariana Correas-Gonzalez, Soumik Das, Alejandro Diaz Moreno, Fabian Drenkhan, Melanie Fischer, Walter W. Immerzeel, Eñaut Izagirre, Ramesh Chandra Joshi, Ioannis Kougkoulos, Riamsara Kuyakanon Knapp, Dongfeng Li, Ulfat Majeed, Stephanie Matti, Holly Moulton, Faezeh Nick, Valentine Piroton, Irfan Rashid, Masoom Reza, Anderson Ribeiro de Figueiredo, Christian Riveros, Finu Shrestha, Milan Shrestha, Jakob Steiner, Noah Walker-Crawford, Joanne L. Wood, and Jacob C. Yde
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3041–3061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have attracted increased research attention recently. In this work, we review GLOF research papers published between 2017 and 2021 and complement the analysis with research community insights gained from the 2021 GLOF conference we organized. The transdisciplinary character of the conference together with broad geographical coverage allowed us to identify progress, trends and challenges in GLOF research and outline future research needs and directions.
Fátima Arrogante-Funes, Inmaculada Aguado, and Emilio Chuvieco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2981–3003, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2981-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2981-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We show that ecological value might be reduced by 50 % due to fire perturbation in ecosystems that have not developed in the presence of fire and/or that present changes in the fire regime. The biomes most affected are tropical and subtropical forests, tundra, and mangroves. Integration of biotic and abiotic fire regime and regeneration factors resulted in a powerful way to map ecological vulnerability to fire and develop assessments to generate adaptation plans of management in forest masses.
Aubrey Miller, Pascal Sirguey, Simon Morris, Perry Bartelt, Nicolas Cullen, Todd Redpath, Kevin Thompson, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2673–2701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2673-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2673-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazard modelers simulate mass movements to better anticipate the risk to people and infrastructure. These simulations require accurate digital elevation models. We test the sensitivity of a well-established snow avalanche model (RAMMS) to the source and spatial resolution of the elevation model. We find key differences in the digital representation of terrain greatly affect the simulated avalanche results, with implications for hazard planning.
Kathryn C. Fisher, Pascal Haegeli, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1973–2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1973-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Avalanche bulletins include travel and terrain statements to provide recreationists with tangible guidance about how to apply the hazard information. We examined which bulletin users pay attention to these statements, what determines their usefulness, and how they could be improved. Our study shows that reducing jargon and adding simple explanations can significantly improve the usefulness of the statements for users with lower levels of avalanche awareness education who depend on this advice.
Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Frank Techel, Martin Hendrick, Michele Volpi, Alec van Herwijnen, Tasko Olevski, Guillaume Obozinski, Fernando Pérez-Cruz, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2031–2056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2031-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2031-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A fully data-driven approach to predicting the danger level for dry-snow avalanche conditions in Switzerland was developed. Two classifiers were trained using a large database of meteorological data, snow cover simulations, and danger levels. The models performed well throughout the Swiss Alps, reaching a performance similar to the current experience-based avalanche forecasts. This approach shows the potential to be a valuable supplementary decision support tool for assessing avalanche hazard.
Frank Techel, Stephanie Mayer, Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Günter Schmudlach, and Kurt Winkler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1911–1930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1911-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1911-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Can the resolution of forecasts of avalanche danger be increased by using a combination of absolute and comparative judgments? Using 5 years of Swiss avalanche forecasts, we show that, on average, sub-levels assigned to a danger level reflect the expected increase in the number of locations with poor snow stability and in the number and size of avalanches with increasing forecast sub-level.
Yves Bühler, Peter Bebi, Marc Christen, Stefan Margreth, Lukas Stoffel, Andreas Stoffel, Christoph Marty, Gregor Schmucki, Andrin Caviezel, Roderick Kühne, Stephan Wohlwend, and Perry Bartelt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1825–1843, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1825-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1825-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To calculate and visualize the potential avalanche hazard, we develop a method that automatically and efficiently pinpoints avalanche starting zones and simulate their runout for the entire canton of Grisons. The maps produced in this way highlight areas that could be endangered by avalanches and are extremely useful in multiple applications for the cantonal authorities, including the planning of new infrastructure, making alpine regions more safe.
Tero M. Partanen and Mikhail Sofiev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1335–1346, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1335-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1335-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The presented method aims to forecast regional wildfire-emitted radiative power in a time-dependent manner several days in advance. The temporal fire radiative power can be converted to an emission production rate, which can be implemented in air quality forecasting simulations. It is shown that in areas with a high incidence of wildfires, the fire radiative power is quite predictable, but otherwise it is not.
Christos Bountzouklis, Dennis M. Fox, and Elena Di Bernardino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1181–1200, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1181-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1181-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The study addresses the evolution of burned areas in southeastern France from 1970 to 2019 through the scope of a firefighting policy shift in 1994 that resulted in a significant decrease in the burned area. Regions with large fires were particularly impacted, whereas, in other areas, the fires remained frequent and occurred closer to built-up zones. Environmental characteristics such as south-facing slopes and low vegetation (bushes) are increasingly associated with burned areas.
Louis Védrine, Xingyue Li, and Johan Gaume
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1015–1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1015-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1015-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates how forests affect the behaviour of snow avalanches through the evaluation of the amount of snow stopped by the trees and the analysis of energy dissipation mechanisms. Different avalanche features and tree configurations have been examined, leading to the proposal of a unified law for the detrained snow mass. Outcomes from this study can be directly implemented in operational models for avalanche risk assessment and contribute to improved forest management strategy.
Matthew C. Perry, Emilie Vanvyve, Richard A. Betts, and Erika J. Palin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 559–575, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-559-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-559-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In the past, wildfires in the UK have occurred mainly in spring, with occasional events during hot, dry summers. Climate models predict a large future increase in hazardous fire weather conditions in summer. Wildfire can be considered an
emergent riskfor the UK, as past events have not had widespread major impacts, but this could change. The large increase in risk between the 2 °C and 4 °C levels of global warming highlights the importance of global efforts to keep warming below 2 °C.
Philip A. Ebert and Peter Milne
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 539–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-539-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-539-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
There is no consensus about how to assess the quality of binary (yes or no) rare and severe event forecasts, i.e. forecasts involving natural hazards like tornadoes or avalanches. We offer a comprehensive overview of the challenges we face when making such an assessment and provide a critical review of existing solutions. We argue against all but one existing solution to assess the quality of such forecasts and present practical consequences to improve forecasting services.
Jacques Mourey, Pascal Lacroix, Pierre-Allain Duvillard, Guilhem Marsy, Marco Marcer, Emmanuel Malet, and Ludovic Ravanel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 445–460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-445-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-445-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
More frequent rockfalls in high alpine environments due to climate change are a growing threat to mountaineers. This hazard is particularly important on the classic route up Mont Blanc. Our results show that rockfalls are most frequent during snowmelt periods and the warmest hours of the day, and that mountaineers do not adapt to the local rockfall hazard when planning their ascent. Disseminating the knowledge acquired from our study caused management measures to be implemented for the route.
Tomàs Artés, Marc Castellnou, Tracy Houston Durrant, and Jesús San-Miguel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 509–522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-509-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-509-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
During the last 20 years extreme wildfires have challenged firefighting capabilities. Several fire danger indices are routinely used by firefighting services but are not suited to forecast convective extreme wildfire behaviour at the global scale. This article proposes a new fire danger index for deep moist convection, the extreme-fire behaviour index (EFBI), based on the analysis of the vertical profiles of the atmosphere above wildfires to use along with traditional fire danger indices.
Veronika Hutter, Frank Techel, and Ross S. Purves
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3879–3897, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3879-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3879-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
How is avalanche danger described in public avalanche forecasts? We analyzed 6000 textual descriptions of avalanche danger in Switzerland, taking the perspective of the forecaster. Avalanche danger was described rather consistently, although the results highlight the difficulty of communicating conditions that are neither rare nor frequent, neither small nor large. The study may help to refine the ways in which avalanche danger could be communicated to the public.
Alessandro Gattuso, Francesco Italiano, Giorgio Capasso, Antonino D'Alessandro, Fausto Grassa, Antonino Fabio Pisciotta, and Davide Romano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3407–3419, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3407-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3407-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Santa Barbara and Aragona are affected by mud volcanism with episodic hazardous paroxysm events. Two potentially hazardous paroxysm exposed surfaces of 0.12 and 0.20 km2 were elaborated with DSMs and with historical information on the paroxysms that occurred in the past. This paper, in the end, could be a useful tool for civil protection authorities in order to take appropriate risk mitigation measurements for exposed people and for monitoring activities.
Kathryn C. Fisher, Pascal Haegeli, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3219–3242, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3219-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3219-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Avalanche warning services publish condition reports to help backcountry recreationists make informed decisions about when and where to travel in avalanche terrain. We tested how different graphic representations of terrain information can affect users’ ability to interpret and apply the provided information. Our study shows that a combined presentation of aspect and elevation information is the most effective. These results can be used to improve avalanche risk communication products.
Jeffrey Katan and Liliana Perez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3141–3160, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3141-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3141-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfires are an integral part of ecosystems worldwide, but they also pose a serious risk to human life and property. To further our understanding of wildfires and allow experimentation without recourse to live fires, this study presents an agent-based modelling approach to combine the complexity possible with physical models with the ease of computation of empirical models. Model calibration and validation show bottom-up simulation tracks the core elements of complexity of fire across scales.
Xiaowen Wang, Lin Liu, Yan Hu, Tonghua Wu, Lin Zhao, Qiao Liu, Rui Zhang, Bo Zhang, and Guoxiang Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2791–2810, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2791-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2791-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We characterized the multi-decadal geomorphic changes of a low-angle valley glacier in the East Kunlun Mountains and assessed the detachment hazard influence. The observations reveal a slow surge-like dynamic pattern of the glacier tongue. The maximum runout distances of two endmember avalanche scenarios were presented. This study provides a reference to evaluate the runout hazards of low-angle mountain glaciers prone to detachment.
Xuguo Shi, Shaocheng Zhang, Mi Jiang, Yuanyuan Pei, Tengteng Qu, Jinhu Xu, and Chen Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2285–2297, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2285-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2285-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We mapped the subsidence of Wuhan using Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images acquired during 2015–2019. Overall subsidence coincides with the distribution of engineered geological regions with soft soils, while the subsidence centers shifted with urban construction activities. Correlation between karst subsidence and concentrated rainfall was identified in Qingling–Jiangdi. Results indicate that interferometric SAR can be employed to routinely monitor and identify geohazards.
Cited articles
Abrams, M., Bailey, B., Tsu, H., and Hato, M.: The ASTER Global DEM,
Photogramm. Eng. Rem. Se., 76, 344–348, 2010.
Acker, J. G. and Leptoukh, G.: Online analysis enhances use of NASA Earth
science data, EOS T. Am. Geophys. Un., 88, 14–17, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007EO020003, 2007.
Adams, M.: Mega-fires, tipping points and ecosystem services: Managing
forests and woodlands in an uncertain future, Forest Ecol. Manag.,
294, 250–261, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2012.11.039,
2013.
Aguayo, M., Pauchard, A., Azócar, G., and Parra, O.: Cambio del uso del
suelo en el centro sur de Chile a fines del siglo XX: Entendiendo la
dinámica espacial y temporal del paisaje, Revista Chilena de Historia
Natural, 82, 361–374,
https://doi.org/10.4067/S0716-078X2009000300004, 2009.
Altamirano, A., Salas, C., Yaitul, V., Smith-Ramirez, C., and Ávila, A.: Influencia de la heterogeneidad del paisaje en la ocurrencia de incendios forestales en Chile Central, Revista de Geografía Norte Grande, 55, 157–170, 2013.
Alvarez-Garreton, C., Mendoza, P. A., Boisier, J. P., Addor, N., Galleguillos, M., Zambrano-Bigiarini, M., Lara, A., Puelma, C., Cortes, G., Garreaud, R., McPhee, J., and Ayala, A.: The CAMELS-CL dataset: catchment attributes and meteorology for large sample studies – Chile dataset, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5817–5846, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5817-2018, 2018.
Andersson, K., Lawrence, D., Zavaleta, J., and Guariguata, M.R.: More trees,
more poverty? The socioeconomic effects of tree plantations in Chile
2001–2011, Environ. Manage., 57, 123–136, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-015-0594-x, 2016.
Araya-Muñoz, D., Metzger, M. J., Stuart, N., Meriwether, A., Wilson, W.,
and Carvajal, D.: A spatial fuzzy logic approach to urban multi-hazard
impact assessment in Concepción, Chile, Sci. Total
Environ., 576, 508–519, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.10.077, 2017.
Barbati, A., Corona, P., D'amato, E., and Cartisano, R.: Is landscape a
driver of short-term wildfire recurrence?, Landscape Res., 40, 99–108,
https://doi.org/10.1080/01426397.2012.761681, 2013.
Biblioteca del Congreso Nacional (BCN): Reportes Comunales, available at: https://www.bcn.cl/siit/reportescomunales/comunal.html?unidad=Comunales&anno=2015, last access: 29 November 2021.
Boisier, J. P., Rondanelli, R., Garreaud, R. D., and Muñoz, F.:
Anthropogenic and natural contributions to the Southeast Pacific
precipitation decline and recent megadrought in central Chile, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 43, 413–421, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL067265, 2016.
Brites, W. F.: La ciudad en la encrucijada neoliberal. Urbanismo
mercado-céntrico y desigualdad socio espacial en América Latina,
Urbe Revista Brasileira de Gestão Urbana, 9, 573–586, https://doi.org/10.1590/2175-3369.009.003.ao14, 2017.
Bustamante, L. P. and Varela, E. S.: Crecimiento urbano y globalización:
transformaciones del Área Metropolitana de Concepción, Chile,
1992–2002, Scripta Nova, Revista Electrónica de Geografía y
Ciencias Sociales, 11, available at:
http://www.ub.edu/geocrit/sn/sn-251.htm (last access: 29 November 2021), 2007.
Castillo, M., Pedernera, P., and Peña, E.: Incendios forestales y medio
ambiente: una síntesis global, Revista Ambiente y Desarrollo de CIPMA,
XIX, 44–53, available at: http://www.keneamazon.net/Documents/Publications/Virtual-Library/Economia-Desarrollo/29.pdf (last access: 29 November 2021),
2003.
Castree, N.: Neoliberalising nature: the logics of deregulation and
reregulation, Environ. Plann. A, 40, 131–152, https://doi.org/10.1068/a39100, 2008.
CEDEUS: Geonode CEDEUS, available at: http://cedeusdata.geosteiniger.cl (last access: 1 December 2021), 2016.
Cid, B.: Peasant economies, forestry industry and fires: socio-natural
instabilities and agriculture as means of resistance, Ambiente &
Sociedade, XVII, 93–114, https://doi.org/10.1590/1809-4422ASOC720V1812015esp, 2015.
Center for Climate and Resilience (CR2): CR2MET Climate data from Chile
[data set], available at: http://www.cr2.cl/ (last access: 29 November 2021), 2020.
CENTRO INVESTIGACIONES PERIODÍSTICAS (CIPER Chile): Alertas que
anunciaban la catástrofe se arrastran desde 2012. Mega incendios: el
historial de omisiones de las autoridades que abonó la tragedia, available at:
https://ciperchile.cl/2017/02/01/mega-incendios-el-historial-de-omisiones-de-las-autoridades-que-abono-la-tragedia/, last access: 25 October 2018.
CONAF-BIRF: Catastro y evaluación de los recursos vegetacionales nativos
de Chile. Informe nacional con variables ambientales, Publicaciones de
CONAF/CONAMA/BIRF, Santiago, 1999.
Corporación Nacional Forestal (CONAF): Análisis de la afectación
y severidad de los incendios forestales ocurridos en enero y febrero de 2017
sobre los usos de suelo y los ecosistemas naturales presentes entre las
regiones de Coquimbo y La Araucanía de Chile, CONAF, Santiago de Chile,
http://www.conaf.cl/tormenta_de_fuego-2017/INFORME-AFECTACION-Y_SEVERIDAD-DE-INCENDIOS-FORESTALES-VERANO-2017-SOBRE-ECOSISTEMAS-VEGETACIONALES-CONAF.pdf (last access: 29 November 2021),
2017.
Corporación Nacional Forestal (CONAF): Estadísticas de incendios forestales en Chile, available at: http://www.conaf.cl/incendios-forestales/incendios-forestales-en-chile/ (last access: 29 November 2021),
2018.
Corporación Nacional Forestal (CONAF): Prevención de Incendios Forestales en Zonas de Interfaz de la
Región del Biobío, available at: https://www.conaf.cl/incendios-forestales/prevencion/yo-tambien-soy-forestin-campana-de-prevencion-de-incendios-forestales-2020/prevencion-de-incendios-forestales-en-zonas-de-interfaz-de-la-region-del-biobio/ (last access: 29 November 2021),
2020.
Corripio, J. G.: Vectorial algebra algorithms for calculating terrain
parameters from DEMs and the position of the sun for solar radiation
modelling in mountainous terrain, Int. J. Geogr.
Inf. Sci., 17, 1–23, https://doi.org/10.1080/713811744, 2003.
Costa, D. G., Vasques, F., Portugal, P., and Aguiar, A.: A Distributed
Multi-Tier Emergency Alerting System Exploiting Sensors-Based Event
Detection to Support Smart City Applications, Sensors, 20, 170, https://doi.org/10.3390/s20010170, 2020.
Change, N. C.: Spreading like wildfire, Nature Climate Change, 7, 755,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3432, 2017.
Chuvieco, E.: Teledetección ambiental, La observación de la tierra
desde el espacio, Ariel, Barcelona, 2002.
Chuvieco, E., Salas, J., De la Riva, J., Pérez, F., and Lana-Renault, N.
Métodos para la integración de variables de riesgo: el papel de los
sistemas de información geográfica, Nuevas tecnologías para la
estimación del riesgo de incendios forestales, CSIC-Instituto de
Economía y Geografía, Madrid, 2004.
Chuvieco, E., Aguado, I., Yebra, M., Nieto, H., Salas, J., Martín, M. P.,
and De La Riva, J.: Development of a framework for fire risk assessment
using remote sensing and geographic information system technologies,
Ecol. Model., 221, 46–58, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.11.017, 2011.
Dapeng, L., Cova, T. J., Dennison, P. E., Wan, N., Nguyen, Q. C., and Siebeneck,
L. K.: Why do we need a national address point database to improve wildfire
public safety in the US?, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re.,
39, 101237, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101237, 2019.
Darques, R.: Mediterranean cities under fire. A critical approach to the
wildland–urban interface, Appl. Geogr., 59, 10–21, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2015.02.008, 2015.
da Silva, A. S., Justino, F., Setzer, A. W., and Ávila-Díaz, A.:
Vegetation fire activity and the Potential Fire Index (PFIv2) performance in
the last two decades (2001–2016), Int. J. Climatol., 77,
1–15, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6648, 2020.
de la Barrera, F. and Henríquez, C.: Vegetation covers change in
growing urban agglomerations in Chile, Ecol. Indic., 81, 265–273, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2017.05.067, 2017.
de la Barrera, F., Barraza, F., Philomène, F., Ruíz, V., and Quense,
J.: Megafires in Chile 2017: Monitoring multiscale environmental impacts of
burned ecosystems, Sci. Total Environ., 637–638, 1526–1536,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.119, 2018.
Demšar, U., Harris, P., and Brunsdon, C.: Principal Component Analysis on
Spatial Data: An Overview, Ann. Assoc. Am.
Geogr., 103, 106–128, https://doi.org/10.1080/00045608.2012.689236, 2013.
Diffenbaugh, N. S., Pal, J. S., Giorgi, F., and Gao, X.: Heat stress
intensification in the Mediterranean climate change hotspot, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 34, L11706, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025734, 2007.
Doerr, S. H. and Santin, C.: Global trends in wildfire and its impacts:
perceptions versus realities in a changing world, Philos. T.
R. Soc. B, 371, 1–10,
https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2015.0345, 2016.
Fernández, A., Muñoz, A., González-Reyes, Á., Aguilera-Betti, I., Toledo, I., Puchi, P., Sauchyn, D., Crespo, S., Frene, C., Mundo, I., González, M., and Vignola, R.: Dendrohydrology and water resources management in south-central Chile: lessons from the Río Imperial streamflow reconstruction, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2921–2935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2921-2018, 2018.
Frene, C. and Núñez, M., Hacia un nuevo Modelo Forestal en Chile,
Revista Bosque Nativo, 47, 25–35, available at: http://www.sendadarwin.cl/espanol/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/frene-y-nunez.pdf (last access: 29 November 2021),
2010.
Freudenburg, W. R.: Addictive economies: Extractive industries and vulnerable
localities in a changing world economy, Rural Sociol., 57, 305–332,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1549-0831.1992.tb00467.x, 1992.
Gago, V. and Mezzadra, S.: A critique of the extractive operations of
capital: Toward an expanded concept of extractivism, Rethinking Marxism,
29, 574–591, https://doi.org/10.1080/08935696.2017.1417087,
2017.
Garreaud, R. D., Boisier, J. P., Rondanelli, R., Montecinos, A.,
Sepúlveda, H. H., and Veloso – Águila, D.: The Central Chile Mega
Drought (2010–2018): A climate dynamics perspective, Int. J. Climatol., 40, 421–439, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6219, 2020.
Goldman, J. G.: Living on the edge: Wildfires pose a growing risk to homes
built near wilderness areas. Building houses at the edge of the wilderness
increases the danger of catastrophic blazes, Sci. Am., 318,
12–15, available at: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/living-on-the-edge-wildfires-pose-a-growing-risk-to-homes-built-near-wilderness-areas/ (last access: 29 November 2021),
2018.
Gómez-González, S., Ojeda, F., and Fernandes, P.M.: Portugal and
Chile: Longing for sustainable forestry while rising from the ashes,
Environ. Sci. Policy, 81, 104–107,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2017.11.006, 2018.
González, M. E.: Fire history data as reference information in ecological restoration, Dendrochronology, 22, 149–154, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dendro.2005.04.001, 2005.
González-Mathiesen, C. and March, A.: Establishing design principles for
wildfire resilient urban planning, Planning Practice & Research, Volume 33, 97–119,
https://doi.org/10.1080/02697459.2018.1429787, 2018.
Harari, Y.: From Animals into Gods: A brief history of Humankind, Penguin
Random House, New York, 2013.
Heilmayr, R., Echeverría, C., Fuentes, R., and Lambin, E. F.: A
plantation-dominated forest transition in Chile, Appl. Geogr., 75,
71–82, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2016.07.014, 2016.
Hidalgo, R., Rodríguez, L., and Alvarado, V.: Up the hill or over the
wetland: production of nature and expanding real estate in marine and
fluvial cities. The case of Valparaiso and Valdivia, Chile, Diálogo
Andino, 56, 87–100,
https://doi.org/10.4067/S0719-26812018000200087, 2018.
Hutto, R. L.: The ecological importance of severe wildfires: Some like it hot, Ecol. Appl., 18, 1827–1834, https://doi.org/10.1890/08-0895.1, 2008.
Instituto Forestal (INFOR): Anuario forestal 2017, Santiago de Chile, INFOR, available at:
http://wef.infor.cl/publicaciones/anuario/2017/Anuario2017.pdf (last access: 29 November 2021),
2017.
Instituto Forestal (INFOR): Anuario forestal 2017, INFOR, Santiago de Chile, available at: http://wef.infor.cl/publicaciones/anuario/2017/Anuario2017.pdf (last access: 29 November 2021), 2017.
Instituto Nacional de Derechos Humanos (INDH), Mapa de conflictos
socioambientales en Chile, Santiago de Chile, INDH, available at: https://mapaconflictos.indh.cl/#/ (last access: 29 November 2021), 2015.
Instituto Nacional De Estadísticas (INE): Censo 2017, Santiago de Chile,
Ministerio de Economía, Fomento y Reconstrucción, available at: http://www.censo2017.cl, last access: 3 November 2021.
Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) – Economic Commission for Latin
American and the Caribbean (ECLAC): Information on disaster risk management,
Case study of five countries, Main technical report, Mexico City, IDB-ECLAC,
available at: https://www.cepal.org/en/publications/25845-information-disaster-risk-management-case-study-five-countries-main-technical (last access: 29 November 2021), 2007.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): Guidelines for national
greenhouse gas inventories, and good practice guidance reports, Cambridge,
USA, Cambridge University Press, 1996a.
IPCC: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A:
Global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth
Assessment Report of the IPCC, Cambridge, USA, Cambridge University Press,
1–32, available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ar5_wgII_spm_en.pdf (last access: 29 November 2021), 2014.
IPCC: Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, Cambridge,
USA, Cambridge University Press, available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/ (last access: 29 November 2021), 2019.
Klein Tank, A., Zwiers, F., and Zhang, X.: Guidelines on analysis of extremes
in a changing climate in support of informed decisions for adaptation,
Climate Data and Monitoring WCDMP 72 and WMO-TD 1500, available at: https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=138#.YaTmzC-B1QI (last access: 29 November 2021), 2009.
Knowles, A. K., Westerveld, L., and Strom, L.: Inductive visualization: A
humanistic alternative to GIS, GeoHumanities, 1, 233–265, https://doi.org/10.1080/2373566X.2015.1108831, 2015.
Kohonen, T.: The Self-Organizing Map, P. IEEE, 78, 1464–80, https://doi.org/10.1109/5.58325, 1990.
Kolden, C. A. and Henson, C.: A Socio-Ecological approach to mitigating
wildfire vulnerability in the Wildland Urban Interface: A case study from
the 2017 Thomas fire, Fire, 2, 2–19,
https://doi.org/10.3390/fire2010009, 2019.
Koltunov, A., Ustin, S. L., and Prins, E. M.: On timeliness and accuracy of
wildfire detection by the GOES WF-ABBA algorithm over California during the
2006 fire season, Remote Sens. Environ., 127, 194–209, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2012.09.001, 2012.
Kumagai, Y., Carroll, M. S., and Cohn, P.: Coping with interface wildfire as
a human event: lessons from the disaster/hazard's literature, J.
Forest., 102, 28–32,
2004.
Martínez Poblete, J.: Land registry and condition of conservation of
the wetlands coastal/marines in the region of the Biobío, Tiempo y
Espacio, 33, 104–130, 2014.
McGee, T. K. and Russell, S.: “It's just a natural way of life …” An investigation of wildfire preparedness in rural Australia,
Environ. Hazards, 5, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hazards.2003.04.001, 2003.
McWethy, D. B., Pauchard, A., García, R. A., Holz, A., González, M. E.,
and Veblen, T. T.: Landscape drivers of recent fire activity (2001–2017) in
south-central Chile, PLoS ONE, 13, e0201195, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201195, 2018.
Minnich, R. A. and Chou, Y. H.: Wildland Fire Patch Dynamics in the Chaparral
of Southern California and Northern Baja California, International Journal
of Wildland Fire, 7, 221-248, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF9970221, 1997.
Moritz, M. A., Parisien, M.-A., Batllori, E., Krawchuk, M. A., Van Dorn, J.,
Ganz, D. J., and Hayhoe, K.: Climate change and disruptions to global fire
activity, Ecosphere, 3, 49,
https://doi.org/10.1890/ES11-00345.1, 2012.
Nahuelhual, L., Carmona, A., and Lara, A.: Landscape and urban planning land
cover change to forest plantations: Proximate causes and implications for
the landscape in south-central Chile, Landscape Urban Plan., 107, 12–20,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2012.04.006, 2012.
Otero, I. and Nielsen, J.: Coexisting with wildfire? Achievements and
challenges for a radical social-ecological transformation in Catalonia
(Spain), Geoforum, 85, 234–246, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2017.07.020, 2017.
Pausas, J. G., Llovet, J., Rodrigo, A., and Vallejo, R.: Are wildfires a
disaster in the Mediterranean basin? – A review, Int. J.
Wildland Fire, 17, 713–723, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF07151,
2008.
Paveglio, T., Brenkert-Smith, H., Hall, T. E., and Smith, A.: Understanding
social impact from wildfires: advancing means for assessment, Int.
J. Wildland Fire, 24, 212–224, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF14091, 2015.
Pawson, S. M., Brin, A., Brockerhoff, E. G., Lamb, D., Payn, T. W., Paquette,
A., and Parrotta, J. A.: Plantation forests, climate change and biodiversity,
Biodiversity Conservation, 22, 1203–1227, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-013-0458-8,
2013.
Pyne, S. J.: The human geography of fire: a research agenda, Prog.
Hum. Geog., 33, 443–446, https://doi.org/10.1177/0309132508101598, 2009.
Reyes, R. and Nelson, H.: A tale of two forests: why forests and forest
conflicts are both growing in Chile, Int. For. Rev., 16,
379–388, https://doi.org/10.1505/146554814813484121, 2014.
Ricotta, C. and Di Vito, S.: Modeling the landscape drivers of fire
recurrence in Sardinia (Italy), Environ. Manage., 53, 1077–1084,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-014-0269-z, 2014.
Rojas Quezada, C. A., Muñiz Olivera, I., and García-López,
M.Á.: Estructura urbana y policentrismo en el Área Metropolitana de
Concepción, Revista Eure, 35, 47–70,
https://doi.org/10.4067/S0250-71612009000200003, 2009.
Rojas Quezada, C., Pino, J., and Jaque, E.: Strategic Environmental
Assessment in Latin America: A methodological proposal for urban planning in
the Metropolitan Area of Concepción (Chile), Land Use Policy, 30,
519–527, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2012.04.018,
2013.
Ruiz, V., Munizaga, J., and Burrows, A.S.: Plantaciones forestales y su
extensión hacia áreas urbanas en el área metropolitana de
Valparaíso y su relación con el aumento de incendios forestales,
Investigaciones Geográficas, 54, 23–40, https://doi.org/10.5354/0719-5370.2017.48040, 2017.
Sarricolea, P., Herrera, M. J., and Meseguer-Ruíz, O.: Climatic
regionalization of continental Chile, J. Maps, 13, 66–73,
https://doi.org/10.1080/17445647.2016.1259592, 2016.
Sarricolea, P., Serrano-Notivoli, R., Fuentealba, M., Hernández-Mora,
M., de la Barrera, F., Smith, P., and Meseguer-Ruiz, O.: Recent wildfires in
Central Chile: Detecting links between burned areas and population exposure
in the wildland urban interface, Sci. Total Environ., 706,
135894, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135894, 2020.
Schulz, J. J., Cayuela, L., Echeverría, C., Salas, J., and Rey Benayas,
J. M.: Monitoring land cover change of the dryland forest landscape of
Central Chile (1975–2008), Appl. Geogr., 30, 436–447,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2009.12.003, 2010.
Shahriar, S., Zahran El-Said, M. M., Said Safwanah, N. M., Hui Kho, J.,
Naderah, N. D., Lee, H. M. F., and Hasim, N. H. H.: Risk assessment for
forest fire in Brunei Darussalam, MATEC Web Conf., 258 05033, https://doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/201925805033, 2019.
Smith-Ramírez, C.: The Chilean coastal range: a vanishing center of biodiversity and endemism in South American temperate rainforests, Biodivers. Conserv., 13, 373–393, 2004.
Spies, T. A., White, E. M., Kline, J. D., Fischer, A. P., Ager, A., Bailey,
J., Bolte, J., Koch, J., Platt, E., Olsen, C. S., Jacobs, D., Shindler, B.,
Steen-Adams, M. M., and Hammer R.: Examining fire-prone forest landscapes as
coupled human and natural systems, Ecol. Soc., 19, 9,
https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-06584-190309, 2014.
Stott, P.: How climate change affects extreme weather events, Science,
352, 1517–1518, available at: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/352/6293/1517 (last access: 29 November 2021), 2016.
Tapia, G. and Castillo, M.: Propuesta de diseño de un sistema de torres
de detección de incendios forestales: aplicación a la Región
Metropolitana de Chile Central, Bosque, 35, 399–412, https://doi.org/10.4067/S0717-92002014000300014, 2014.
Terranova, O., Antronico, L., Coscarelli, R., and Iaquinta, P.: Soil erosion
risk scenarios in the Mediterranean environment using RUSLE and GIS: an
application model for Calabria (southern Italy), Geomorphology, 112,
228–245, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2009.06.009, 2009.
Torres, R., Azócar, G., Rojas, J., Montecinos, A., and Paredes, P.:
Vulnerability and resistance to neoliberal environmental changes: An
assessment of agriculture and forestry in the Biobio region of Chile
(1974–2014), Geoforum, 60, 107–122, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2014.12.013, 2015.
Turco, M., Bedia, J., Di Liberto, F., Fiorucci, P., Von Hardenberg, J., and
Koutsias, N.: Decreasing fires in Mediterranean Europe, PLoS ONE, 11,
e0150663, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0150663, 2016.
Úbeda, X. and Sarricolea, P.: Wildfires in Chile: A review, Global
Planet. Change, 146, 152–161, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.10.004, 2016.
Urrutia-Jalabert, R., Gonzalez, M. E., Gonzalez-Reyes, A., Lara, A., and
Garreaud, R.: Climate variability and forest fires in central and
south-central Chile, Ecosphere, 9, e02171, https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2171, 2018.
Van Ackere, S., Verbeurgt, J., De Sloover, L., Gautama, S., De Wulf, A., and
De Maeyer, P.: A Review of the Internet of Floods: Near Real-Time Detection
of a flood event and its impact, Water, 11, 2275, https://doi.org/10.3390/w11112275, 2019.
Vesanto, J.: Neural network tool for data mining: SOM toolbox, in:
Proceedings of Symposium on Tool Environments and Development Methods for
Intelligent Systems (TOOLMET2000), Oulu, Finland, 3–8 September 2001, 184–962000,
2000.
Vilar del Hoyo, L., Martín Isabel, M. P., and Martínez Vega, F. J.:
Logistic regression models for human-caused wildfire risk estimation:
analyzing the effect of the spatial accuracy in fire occurrence data,
European Journal of Forestry Research, 130, 983–996, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-011-0488-2, 2011.
Wan, Z., Hook, S., and Hulley, G.: MOD11C3 MODIS/Terra Land Surface
Temperature/Emissivity Monthly L3 Global 0.05Deg CMG V006, NASA EOSDIS Land
Processes DAAC [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MOD11C3.006, 2015.
Wright, J. A., Di Nicola, A., and Gaitan, E.: Latin American forest
plantations. Opportunities for carbon sequestration, economic development,
and financial returns, J. Forest., 12, 20–23, 2000.
You, W., Li, L., Wu, L., Ji, Z., Yu, J., Zhu, J., Fan, Y., and He, D.:
Geographical information system-based forest fire risk assessment
integrating national forest inventory data and analysis of its
spatiotemporal variability, Ecol. Indic., 77, 176–184, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2017.01.042, 2017.
Short summary
Wildfires pose risks to lives and livelihoods in many regions of the world. Particularly in Chile's central-south region, climate change, widespread land use change, and urban growth tend to increase the likelihood of fire occurrence. Our work focused on the Concepción metropolitan area, where we developed a model using machine learning in order to map wildfire risks. We found that the interface between urban areas and forestry plantations presents the highest risks.
Wildfires pose risks to lives and livelihoods in many regions of the world. Particularly in...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint