Articles | Volume 21, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3663-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3663-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Data-based wildfire risk model for Mediterranean ecosystems – case study of the Concepción metropolitan area in central Chile
Edilia Jaque Castillo
Departamento de Geografía, Universidad de Concepción,
Concepción, Chile
Departamento de Geografía, Universidad de Concepción,
Concepción, Chile
Rodrigo Fuentes Robles
Laboratorio de Ecología de Paisaje (LEP), Facultad de Ciencias Forestales, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción,
Chile
Carolina G. Ojeda
Facultad de Comunicación, Historia y Cs. Sociales, Universidad
Católica de la Santísima Concepción, Concepción, Chile
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Total article views: 3,583 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
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Cited
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Modeling environmental drivers and socio-economic/human predictors of forest fire outbreaks in Algeria A. Kahli et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-026-08061-5
- Mapping wildfire ignition probability and predictor sensitivity with ensemble-based machine learning Q. Tong & T. Gernay https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06172-x
- A comprehensive taxonomy for forest fire risk assessment: bridging methodological gaps and proposing future directions Z. Özcan et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-024-12982-8
- Fires in central-southern Chile’s (sustainable) green suburbs V. Peterson et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resenv.2023.100123
- Challenges in Developing Wildfire Understanding from Wildfire Information through Spatial Planning Processes C. Gonzalez-Mathiesen https://doi.org/10.3390/su16010420
- Satellite-Based Wildfire Monitoring Across the Fire Lifecycle Using Artificial Intelligence: Trends, Challenges, and Future Directions S. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.7780/kjrs.2026.42.3.3
- Conceptual Clarity in Fire Science: A Systematic Review Linking Climatic Factors to Wildfire Occurrence and Spread O. Toy-Opazo et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire9010023
- Comparative analysis of index-based and land cover-based C-factor estimation under wildfire disturbance in Western Greece M. Michalopoulou et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2026.110055
- Artificial intelligence in wildland–urban interface wildfire management: a two‑phase review combining bibliometric mapping and thematic analysis D. Silva et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-026-08131-8
- Improving Wildfire Resilience in the Mediterranean Central-South Regions of Chile F. Veloso et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire8060212
- La interfaz urbano-forestal como tierra de nadie en la construcción del riesgo de incendio forestal en ciudades costeras chilenas E. Jaque-Castillo et al. https://doi.org/10.22320/07183607.2025.28.52.04
- Multi-source landslide inventories for susceptibility assessment: a case study in the Concepción Metropolitan Area, Chile F. Castro-Venegas et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2025.1534295
- Increased wildfire hazard along South-Central Chile under the RCP8.5 scenario as revealed by high-resolution modeling I. Ciocca et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acba33
- Wildland–Urban Interface: Definition and Physical Fire Risk Mitigation Measures, a Systematic Review F. Taccaliti et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire6090343
- Characterization of Soil Changes and Vegetation Indicators after Wildfires K. Sánchez et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42729-025-02998-5
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Modeling environmental drivers and socio-economic/human predictors of forest fire outbreaks in Algeria A. Kahli et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-026-08061-5
- Mapping wildfire ignition probability and predictor sensitivity with ensemble-based machine learning Q. Tong & T. Gernay https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06172-x
- A comprehensive taxonomy for forest fire risk assessment: bridging methodological gaps and proposing future directions Z. Özcan et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-024-12982-8
- Fires in central-southern Chile’s (sustainable) green suburbs V. Peterson et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resenv.2023.100123
- Challenges in Developing Wildfire Understanding from Wildfire Information through Spatial Planning Processes C. Gonzalez-Mathiesen https://doi.org/10.3390/su16010420
- Satellite-Based Wildfire Monitoring Across the Fire Lifecycle Using Artificial Intelligence: Trends, Challenges, and Future Directions S. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.7780/kjrs.2026.42.3.3
- Conceptual Clarity in Fire Science: A Systematic Review Linking Climatic Factors to Wildfire Occurrence and Spread O. Toy-Opazo et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire9010023
- Comparative analysis of index-based and land cover-based C-factor estimation under wildfire disturbance in Western Greece M. Michalopoulou et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2026.110055
- Artificial intelligence in wildland–urban interface wildfire management: a two‑phase review combining bibliometric mapping and thematic analysis D. Silva et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-026-08131-8
- Improving Wildfire Resilience in the Mediterranean Central-South Regions of Chile F. Veloso et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire8060212
- La interfaz urbano-forestal como tierra de nadie en la construcción del riesgo de incendio forestal en ciudades costeras chilenas E. Jaque-Castillo et al. https://doi.org/10.22320/07183607.2025.28.52.04
- Multi-source landslide inventories for susceptibility assessment: a case study in the Concepción Metropolitan Area, Chile F. Castro-Venegas et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2025.1534295
- Increased wildfire hazard along South-Central Chile under the RCP8.5 scenario as revealed by high-resolution modeling I. Ciocca et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acba33
- Wildland–Urban Interface: Definition and Physical Fire Risk Mitigation Measures, a Systematic Review F. Taccaliti et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire6090343
- Characterization of Soil Changes and Vegetation Indicators after Wildfires K. Sánchez et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42729-025-02998-5
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 14 Jul 2026
Short summary
Wildfires pose risks to lives and livelihoods in many regions of the world. Particularly in Chile's central-south region, climate change, widespread land use change, and urban growth tend to increase the likelihood of fire occurrence. Our work focused on the Concepción metropolitan area, where we developed a model using machine learning in order to map wildfire risks. We found that the interface between urban areas and forestry plantations presents the highest risks.
Wildfires pose risks to lives and livelihoods in many regions of the world. Particularly in...
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