Articles | Volume 16, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-103-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-103-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
18 Jan 2016
Research article |
| 18 Jan 2016
Assessing the performance of regional landslide early warning models: the EDuMaP method
M. Calvello
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Salerno, Fisciano, Italy
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Salerno, Fisciano, Italy
Related authors
Luca Piciullo, Mads-Peter Dahl, Graziella Devoli, Hervé Colleuille, and Michele Calvello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 817–831, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-817-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-817-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The landslide early warning system operational in Norway is managed, since 2013, by the NVE and has been designed for monitoring and forecasting the hydrometeorological conditions potentially triggering slope failures. Daily alerts are issued throughout the country considering variable size warning zones. The performance of the warnings issued is evaluated through the adapted EDuMaP method. Different performance results are observed as a function of the landslide density criterion use.
Samuele Segoni, Luca Piciullo, and Stefano Luigi Gariano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3179–3186, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3179-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3179-2018, 2018
Luca Piciullo, Mads-Peter Dahl, Graziella Devoli, Hervé Colleuille, and Michele Calvello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 817–831, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-817-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-817-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The landslide early warning system operational in Norway is managed, since 2013, by the NVE and has been designed for monitoring and forecasting the hydrometeorological conditions potentially triggering slope failures. Daily alerts are issued throughout the country considering variable size warning zones. The performance of the warnings issued is evaluated through the adapted EDuMaP method. Different performance results are observed as a function of the landslide density criterion use.
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
Brief communication: Lessons learned and experiences gained from building up a global survey on societal resilience to changing droughts
Regional seismic risk assessment based on ground conditions in Uzbekistan
Unveiling transboundary challenges in river flood risk management: learning from the Ciliwung River basin
Quantitative study of storm surge risk assessment in an undeveloped coastal area of China based on deep learning and geographic information system techniques: a case study of Double Moon Bay
Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas
Simulating multi-hazard event sets for life cycle consequence analysis
Analysis of the effects of urban micro-scale vulnerabilities on tsunami evacuation using an agent-based model – case study in the city of Iquique, Chile
Factors of influence on flood risk perceptions related to Hurricane Dorian: an assessment of heuristics, time dynamics, and accuracy of risk perceptions
Anticipating a risky future: long short-term memory (LSTM) models for spatiotemporal extrapolation of population data in areas prone to earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
A new regionally consistent exposure database for Central Asia: population and residential buildings
Always on My Mind: Indications of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder Among Those Affected by the 2021 Flood Event in the Ahr Valley, Germany
Study on seismic risk assessment model of water supply systems in mainland China
Mapping current and future flood exposure using a 5 m flood model and climate change projections
Brief communication: On the environmental impacts of the 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna (Italy)
A regional-scale approach to assessing non-residential building, transportation and cropland exposure in Central Asia
Towards a global impact-based forecasting model for tropical cyclones
Identifying vulnerable populations in urban society: a case study in a flood-prone district of Wuhan, China
An assessment of potential improvements in social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness from digital technologies
Spatial accessibility of emergency medical services under inclement weather: a case study in Beijing, China
Review article: Current approaches and critical issues in multi-risk recovery planning of urban areas exposed to natural hazards
Estimating emergency costs for earthquakes and floods in Central Asia based on modelled losses
An Impact Chain-based exploration of multi-hazard vulnerability dynamics. The multi-hazard of floods and the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania
Compound flood impacts from Hurricane Sandy on New York City in climate-driven storylines
Risk reduction through managed retreat? Investigating enabling conditions and assessing resettlement effects on community resilience in Metro Manila
Regional-scale landslide risk assessment in Central Asia
Cost estimation for the monitoring instrumentation of landslide early warning systems
The role of response efficacy and self-efficacy in disaster preparedness actions for vulnerable households
Scientists as storytellers: the explanatory power of stories told about environmental crises
Back analysis of a building collapse under snow and rain loads in a Mediterranean area
Assessment of building damage and risk under extreme flood scenarios in Shanghai
Brief communication: Storm Daniel Flood Impact in Greece 2023: Mapping Crop and Livestock Exposure from SAR
Micro business participation in collective flood adaptation. Lessons from scenario-based analysis in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Mangrove ecosystem properties regulate high water levels in a river delta
Analysis of flood warning and evacuation efficiency by comparing damage and life-loss estimates with real consequences related to the São Francisco tailings dam failure in Brazil
Criteria-based visualization design for hazard maps
Low-regret climate change adaptation in coastal megacities – evaluating large-scale flood protection and small-scale rainwater detention measures for Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Modeling compound flood risk and risk reduction using a globally applicable framework: a pilot in the Sofala province of Mozambique
Scenario-based multi-risk assessment from existing single-hazard vulnerability models. An application to consecutive earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
Earthquake insurance in Iran: Solvency of local insurers in light of the current market practice
Using machine learning algorithms to identify predictors of social vulnerability in the event of a hazard: Istanbul case study
Large-scale risk assessment on snow avalanche hazard in alpine regions
Probabilistic and machine learning methods for uncertainty quantification in power outage prediction due to extreme events
Public intention to participate in sustainable geohazard mitigation: an empirical study based on an extended theory of planned behavior
An assessment of short–medium-term interventions using CAESAR-Lisflood in a post-earthquake mountainous area
Review article: Design and evaluation of weather index insurance for multi-hazard resilience and food insecurity
Design and application of a multi-hazard risk rapid assessment questionnaire for hill communities in the Indian Himalayan region
Identifying the drivers of private flood precautionary measures in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Performance of the flood warning system in Germany in July 2021 – insights from affected residents
Differences in volcanic risk perception among Goma's population before the Nyiragongo eruption of May 2021, Virunga volcanic province (DR Congo)
Empirical tsunami fragility modelling for hierarchical damage levels
Marina Batalini de Macedo, Marcos Roberto Benso, Karina Simone Sass, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Greicelene Jesus da Silva, Pedro Gustavo Câmara da Silva, Elisabeth Shrimpton, Tanaya Sarmah, Da Huo, Michael Jacobson, Abdullah Konak, Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan, and Adelaide Cassia Nardocci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2165–2173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With climate change, societies increasingly need to adapt to deal with more severe droughts and the impacts they can have on food production. To make better adaptation decisions, drought resilience indicators can be used. To build these indicators, surveys with experts can be done. However, designing surveys is a costly process that can influence how experts respond. In this communication, we aim to deal with the challenges encountered in the development of surveys to help further research.
Vakhitkhan Alikhanovich Ismailov, Sharofiddin Ismatullayevich Yodgorov, Akhror Sabriddinovich Khusomiddinov, Eldor Makhmadiyorovich Yadigarov, Bekzod Uktamovich Aktamov, and Shuhrat Bakhtiyorovich Avazov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2133–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the basis of seismic risk assessment, maps of seismic intensity increment and an improved map of seismic hazard have been developed, taking into account the engineering-geological conditions of the territory of Uzbekistan and the seismic characteristics of soils. For seismic risk map development, databases were created based on geographic information system platforms, allowing us to systematize and evaluate the regional distribution of information.
Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu, Khonsa Indana Zulfa, Dewi Nurhasanah, Richard Haigh, Dilanthi Amaratunga, and In In Wahdiny
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2045–2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Transboundary flood risk management in the Ciliwung River basin is placed in a broader context of disaster management, environmental science, and governance. This is particularly relevant for areas of research involving the management of shared water resources, the impact of regional development on flood risk, and strategies to reduce economic losses from flooding.
Lichen Yu, Hao Qin, Shining Huang, Wei Wei, Haoyu Jiang, and Lin Mu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2003–2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a quantitative storm surge risk assessment method for data-deficient regions. A coupled model is used to simulate five storm surge scenarios. Deep learning is used to extract building footprints. Economic losses are calculated by combining adjusted depth–damage functions with inundation simulation results. Zoning maps illustrate risk levels based on economic losses, aiding in disaster prevention measures to reduce losses in coastal areas.
Stephen B. Ferencz, Ning Sun, Sean W. D. Turner, Brian A. Smith, and Jennie S. Rice
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1871–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Population growth, economic development, and the potential for more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change pose significant water security challenges. Better understanding the impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid adaptive planning. The 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas, United States, is used as a case study to assess impacts and responses to severe drought.
Leandro Iannacone, Kenneth Otárola, Roberto Gentile, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1721–1740, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a review of the available classifications for hazard interactions in a multi-hazard context, and it incorporates such classifications from a modeling perspective. The outcome is a sequential Monte Carlo approach enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard event sets (i.e., sequences of events throughout the life cycle). These event sets can then be integrated into frameworks for the quantification of consequences for the purposes of life cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis.
Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Gonzalo Álvarez, Jorge León, Alejandro Urrutia, and Sebastián Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1485–1500, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study carries out a detailed analysis of possible tsunami evacuation scenarios in the city of Iquique in Chile. Evacuation modeling and tsunami modeling are integrated, allowing for an estimation of the potential number of people that the inundation may reach under different scenarios by emulating the dynamics and behavior of the population and their decision-making regarding the starting time of the evacuation.
Laurine A. de Wolf, Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje M. Mol, and Jeffrey Czajkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1303–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An understanding of flood risk perceptions may aid in improving flood risk communication. We conducted a survey among 871 coastal residents in Florida who were threatened to be flooded by Hurricane Dorian. Part of the original sample was resurveyed after Dorian failed to make landfall to investigate changes in risk perception. We find a strong influence of previous flood experience and social norms on flood risk perceptions. Furthermore, flood risk perceptions declined after the near-miss event.
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We establish a model of future geospatial population distributions to quantify the number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru, for the year 2035. Areas of high earthquake intensity will experience a population growth of almost 30 %. The population in the tsunami inundation area is estimated to grow by more than 60 %. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policymakers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Faga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 929–945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is highly exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, floods and landslides, for which risk reduction strategies are currently under development. We provide a regional-scale database of assets at risk, including population and residential buildings, based on existing information and recent data collected for each Central Asian country. The population and number of buildings are also estimated for the year 2080 to support the definition of disaster risk reduction strategies.
Marie-Luise Zenker, Philip Bubeck, and Annegret H. Thieken
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-725, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-725, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the visible flood damage, mental health impacts are a growing concern. Yet, there is limited data in Germany. A survey in a heavily affected region revealed 28 % showing signs of posttraumatic stress disorder one year later. Risk factors Include gender, serious injury or illness due to flooding, and feeling left alone to cope with impacts. The study highlights the need for tailored mental health support for flood-affected populations.
Tianyang Yu, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, and Zhi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 803–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A basic database for seismic risk assessment of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China is established. The parameters of the seismic risk curves of 720 cities are calculated. The seismic fragility curves of various facilities in the water supply system are given based on the logarithmic normal distribution model. The expected seismic loss and the expected loss rate index of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China in the medium and long term are given.
Connor Darlington, Jonathan Raikes, Daniel Henstra, Jason Thistlethwaite, and Emma K. Raven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 699–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of climate change on local floods require precise maps that clearly demarcate changes to flood exposure; however, most maps lack important considerations that reduce their utility in policy and decision-making. This article presents a new approach to identifying current and projected flood exposure using a 5 m model. The results highlight advancements in the mapping of flood exposure with implications for flood risk management.
Chiara Arrighi and Alessio Domeneghetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 673–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this communication, we reflect on environmental flood impacts by analysing the reported environmental consequences of the 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods. The most frequently reported damage involves water resources and water-related ecosystems. Indirect effects in time and space, intrinsic recovery capacity, cascade impacts on socio-economic systems, and the lack of established monitoring activities appear to be the most challenging aspects for future research.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Zukhritdin Ergashev, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Fagà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 355–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to multiple hazards such as floods, landslides and earthquakes, which can affect a wide range of assets at risk. We develop the first regionally consistent database of assets at risk for non-residential buildings, transportation and croplands in Central Asia. The database combines global and regional data sources and country-based information and supports the development of regional-scale disaster risk reduction strategies for the Central Asia region.
Mersedeh Kooshki Forooshani, Marc van den Homberg, Kyriaki Kalimeri, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Yelena Mejova, Leonardo Milano, Pauline Ndirangu, Daniela Paolotti, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Monica L. Turner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We improve an existing impact forecasting model for the Philippines by transforming the target variable (percentage of damaged houses) to a fine grid, using only features which are globally available. We show that our two-stage model conserves the performance of the original and even has the potential to introduce savings in anticipatory action resources. Such model generalizability is important in increasing the applicability of such tools around the world.
Jia Xu, Makoto Takahashi, and Weifu Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 179–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Through the development of micro-individual social vulnerability indicators and cluster analysis, this study assessed the level of social vulnerability of 599 residents from 11 communities in the Hongshan District of Wuhan. The findings reveal three levels of social vulnerability: high, medium, and low. Quantitative assessments offer specific comparisons between distinct units, and the results indicate that different types of communities have significant differences in social vulnerability.
Tommaso Piseddu, Mathilda Englund, and Karina Barquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Contributions to social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness constitute the parameters to test applications in disaster risk management. We propose an evaluation of four of these: mobile positioning data, social media crowdsourcing, drones, and satellite imaging. The analysis grants the opportunity to investigate how different methods to evaluate surveys' results may influence final preferences. We find that the different assumptions on which these methods rely deliver diverging results.
Yuting Zhang, Kai Liu, Xiaoyong Ni, Ming Wang, Jianchun Zheng, Mengting Liu, and Dapeng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This article is aimed at developing a method to quantify the influence of inclement weather on the accessibility of emergency medical services (EMSs) in Beijing, China, and identifying the vulnerable areas that could not get timely EMSs under inclement weather. We found that inclement weather could reduce the accessibility of EMSs by up to 40%. Furthermore, towns with lower baseline EMSs accessibility are more vulnerable when inclement weather occurs.
Soheil Mohammadi, Silvia De Angeli, Giorgio Boni, Francesca Pirlone, and Serena Cattari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 79–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper critically reviews disaster recovery literature from a multi-risk perspective. Identified key challenges encompass the lack of approaches integrating physical reconstruction and socio-economic recovery, the neglect of multi-risk interactions, the limited exploration of recovery from a pre-disaster planning perspective, and the low consideration of disaster recovery as a non-linear process in which communities need change over time.
Emilio Berny, Carlos Avelar, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, and Mario Ordaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a methodology to estimate the total emergency costs based on modelled damages for earthquakes and floods, together with the demographic and building characteristics of the study area. The methodology has been applied in five countries in central Asia, the first time that these estimates are made available for the study area and are intended to be useful for regional and local stakeholders and decision makers.
Andra-Cosmina Albulescu and Iuliana Armaș
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-5, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-5, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study delves into 1) compounded impacts and 2) the dynamics of vulnerability within a multi-hazard context, proposing an Impact Chain-based framework that analyses the augmentation of vulnerability. The case study refers to the flood events and the COVID-19 pandemic that affected Romania (2020–2021). The Impact Chain shows that 1) the unforseen implications of impacts, 2) wrongful action of adaptation options, and 3) inaction can set the premises for increased vulnerability.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Irene Benito Lazaro, Linda van Garderen, Karin van der Wiel, Dewi Le Bars, Elco Koks, and Bart van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 29–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We explore how Hurricane Sandy (2012) could flood New York City under different scenarios, including climate change and internal variability. We find that sea level rise can quadruple coastal flood volumes, while changes in Sandy's landfall location can double flood volumes. Our results show the need for diverse scenarios that include climate change and internal variability and for integrating climate information into a modelling framework, offering insights for high-impact event assessments.
Hannes Lauer, Carmeli Marie C. Chaves, Evelyn Lorenzo, Sonia Islam, and Jörn Birkmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-50, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-50, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In many urban areas, people face high exposure to hazards. Resettling them to safer locations becomes a major strategy, not least because of climate change. This paper dives into the success factors of government-led resettlement in Manila and finds surprising results, which challenge the usual narrative and fuel the conversation on resettlement as an adaptation strategy. Other as expected, the location – whether urban or rural – of the new home is less important as the safety from floods.
Francesco Caleca, Chiara Scaini, William Frodella, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 13–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide risk analysis is a powerful tool because it allows us to identify where physical and economic losses could occur due to a landslide event. The purpose of our work was to provide the first regional-scale analysis of landslide risk for central Asia, and it represents an advanced step in the field of risk analysis for very large areas. Our findings show, per square kilometer, a total risk of about USD 3.9 billion and a mean risk of USD 0.6 million.
Marta Sapena, Moritz Gamperl, Marlene Kühnl, Carolina Garcia-Londoño, John Singer, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3913–3930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new approach for the deployment of landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) is proposed. We combine data-driven landslide susceptibility mapping and population maps to identify exposed locations. We estimate the cost of monitoring sensors and demonstrate that LEWSs could be installed with a budget ranging from EUR 5 to EUR 41 per person in Medellín, Colombia. We provide recommendations for stakeholders and outline the challenges and opportunities for successful LEWS implementation.
Dong Qiu, Binglin Lv, Yuepeng Cui, and Zexiong Zhan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3789–3803, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper divides preparedness behavior into minimal and adequate preparedness. In addition to studying the main factors that promote families' disaster preparedness, we also study the moderating effects of response efficacy and self-efficacy on preparedness actions by vulnerable families. Based on the findings of this study, policymakers can target interventions and programs that can be designed to remedy the current lack of disaster preparedness education for vulnerable families.
Jenni Barclay, Richie Robertson, and M. Teresa Armijos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3603–3615, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stories create avenues for sharing the meanings and social implications of scientific knowledge. We explore their value when told between scientists during a volcanic eruption. They are important vehicles for understanding how risk is generated during volcanic eruptions and create new knowledge about these interactions. Stories explore how risk is negotiated when scientific information is ambiguous or uncertain, identify cause and effect, and rationalize the emotional intensity of a crisis.
Isabelle Ousset, Guillaume Evin, Damien Raynaud, and Thierry Faug
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3509–3523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper deals with an exceptional snow and rain event in a Mediterranean region of France which is usually not prone to heavy snowfall and its consequences on a particular building that collapsed completely. Independent analyses of the meteorological episode are carried out, and the response of the building to different snow and rain loads is confronted to identify the main critical factors that led to the collapse.
Jiachang Tu, Jiahong Wen, Liang Emlyn Yang, Andrea Reimuth, Stephen S. Young, Min Zhang, Luyang Wang, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3247–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper evaluates the flood risk and the resulting patterns in buildings following low-probability, high-impact flood scenarios by a risk analysis chain in Shanghai. The results provide a benchmark and also a clear future for buildings with respect to flood risks in Shanghai. This study links directly to disaster risk management, e.g., the Shanghai Master Plan. We also discussed different potential adaptation options for flood risk management.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Elias Dimitriou, Angeliki Mentzafou, Christina Papadaki, Maria Stoumboudi, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-173, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
~820 km2 of agricultural land is inundated in central Greece due to storm Daniel flood. A detailed analysis revealed that the crop most affected by the flooding was cotton; the inundated area of more than 282 km2 comprised ~30 % of the total area planted with cotton in central Greece. In terms of livestock, we estimated more than 14,000 ornithoids and 21,500 sheep and goats were affected. Consequences for agriculture and animal husbandry in Greece are expected to be severe.
Javier Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, and Matthias Garschagen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2185, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2185, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Micro-businesses, often overlooked in adaptation research, show surprising willingness to contribute to collective adaptation despite limited finances and local support. Based on a study in Ho-Chi-Minh City in Vietnam, approximately 70 % are ready for awareness campaigns, and 39 % would provide financial support if costs were shared. These findings underscore the need for increased involvement of micro-businesses in local adaptation plans to enhance collective adaptive capacity.
Ignace Pelckmans, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Luis E. Dominguez-Granda, Cornelis Slobbe, Stijn Temmerman, and Olivier Gourgue
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3169–3183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mangroves are increasingly recognized as a coastal protection against extreme sea levels. Their effectiveness in doing so, however, is still poorly understood, as mangroves are typically located in tropical countries where data on mangrove vegetation and topography properties are often scarce. Through a modelling study, we identified the degree of channelization and the mangrove forest floor topography as the key properties for regulating high water levels in a tropical delta.
André Felipe Rocha Silva and Julian Cardoso Eleutério
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3095–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work evaluates the application of flood consequence models through their application in a real case related to a tailings dam failure. Furthermore, we simulated the implementation of less efficient alert systems on life-loss alleviation. The results revealed that the models represented the event well and were able to estimate the relevance of implementing efficient alert systems. They highlight that their use may be an important tool for new regulations for dam safety legislation.
Max Schneider, Fabrice Cotton, and Pia-Johanna Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2505–2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hazard maps are fundamental to earthquake risk reduction, but research is missing on how to design them. We review the visualization literature to identify evidence-based criteria for color and classification schemes for hazard maps. We implement these for the German seismic hazard map, focusing on communicating four properties of seismic hazard. Our evaluation finds that the redesigned map successfully communicates seismic hazard in Germany, improving on the baseline map for two key properties.
Leon Scheiber, Christoph Gabriel David, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Jan Visscher, Hong Quan Nguyen, Roxana Leitold, Javier Revilla Diez, and Torsten Schlurmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2333–2347, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Like many other megacities in low-elevation coastal zones, Ho Chi Minh City in southern Vietnam suffers from the convoluting impact of changing environmental stressors and rapid urbanization. This study assesses quantitative hydro-numerical results against the background of the low-regret paradigm for (1) a large-scale flood protection scheme as currently constructed and (2) the widespread implementation of small-scale rainwater detention as envisioned in the Chinese Sponge City Program.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, Willem Ligtvoet, Arno Bouwman, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2251–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a framework for assessing compound flood risk using hydrodynamic, impact, and statistical modeling. A pilot in Mozambique shows the importance of accounting for compound events in risk assessments. We also show how the framework can be used to assess the effectiveness of different risk reduction measures. As the framework is based on global datasets and is largely automated, it can easily be applied in other areas for first-order assessments of compound flood risk.
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Massimiliano Pittore, Nils Brinckmann, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga, Sergio Medina, Nicola Tarque, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2203–2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany and Hooman Motamed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-81, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-81, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Iranian insurers has been offering earthquake cover since 1990's. However, despite international best practices they do not still use modern methods for risk pricing and management. As such, they seem to continue accumulating seismic risk over time. This paper examines the viability of this market in Iran by comparing the local market practice with international best practices in earthquake risk pricing (catastrophe modelling) and insurance risk management (European Solvency II regime).
Oya Kalaycıoğlu, Serhat Emre Akhanlı, Emin Yahya Menteşe, Mehmet Kalaycıoğlu, and Sibel Kalaycıoğlu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2133–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The associations between household characteristics and hazard-related social vulnerability in Istanbul, Türkiye, were assessed using machine learning techniques. The results indicated that less educated households with no social security and job insecurity that live in squatter houses are at a higher risk of social vulnerability. We present the findings in an open-access R Shiny web application, which can serve as a guidance for identifying the target groups in the interest of risk mitigation.
Gregor Ortner, Michael Bründl, Chahan M. Kropf, Thomas Röösli, Yves Bühler, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2089–2110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new approach to assess avalanche risk on a large scale in mountainous regions. It combines a large-scale avalanche modeling method with a state-of-the-art probabilistic risk tool. Over 40 000 individual avalanches were simulated, and a building dataset with over 13 000 single buildings was investigated. With this new method, risk hotspots can be identified and surveyed. This enables current and future risk analysis to assist decision makers in risk reduction and adaptation.
Prateek Arora and Luis Ceferino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1665–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Power outage models can help utilities manage risks for outages from hurricanes. Our article reviews the existing outage models during hurricanes and highlights their strengths and limitations. Existing models can give erroneous estimates with outage predictions larger than the number of customers, can struggle with predictions for catastrophic hurricanes, and do not adequately represent infrastructure failure's uncertainties. We suggest models for the future that can overcome these challenges.
Huige Xing, Ting Que, Yuxin Wu, Shiyu Hu, Haibo Li, Hongyang Li, Martin Skitmore, and Nima Talebian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1529–1547, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1529-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1529-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Disaster risk reduction requires public power. The aim of this study is to investigate the factors influencing the public's intention to participate in disaster risk reduction. An empirical study was conducted using structural equation modeling data analysis methods. The findings show that public attitudes, perceptions of those around them, ability to participate, and sense of participation are important factors.
Di Wang, Ming Wang, Kai Liu, and Jun Xie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1409–1423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The short–medium-term intervention effect on the post-earthquake area was analysed by simulations in different scenarios. The sediment transport patterns varied in different sub-regions, and the relative effectiveness in different scenarios changed over time with a general downward trend, where the steady stage implicated the scenario with more facilities performing better in controlling sediment output. Therefore, the simulation methods could support optimal rehabilitation strategies.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Roberto Fray Silva, Greicelene Jesus Silva, Luis Miguel Castillo Rápalo, Fabricio Alonso Richmond Navarro, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, José Antônio Marengo, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1335–1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article is about how farmers can better protect themselves from disasters like droughts, extreme temperatures, and floods. The authors suggest that one way to do this is by offering insurance contracts that cover these different types of disasters. By having this insurance, farmers can receive financial support and recover more quickly. The article elicits different ideas about how to design this type of insurance and suggests ways to make it better.
Shivani Chouhan and Mahua Mukherjee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1267–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1267-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Himalayas are prone to multi-hazards. To minimise loss, proper planning and execution are necessary. Data collection is the basis of any risk assessment process. This enhanced survey form is easy to understand and pictorial and identifies high-risk components of any building (structural and non-structural) surrounded by multi-hazards. Its results can help to utilise the budget in a prioritised way. A SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities) analysis has been performed.
Thulasi Vishwanath Harish, Nivedita Sairam, Liang Emlyn Yang, Matthias Garschagen, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1125–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal Asian cities are becoming more vulnerable to flooding. In this study we analyse the data collected from flood-prone houses in Ho Chi Minh City to identify what motivates the households to adopt flood precautionary measures. The results revealed that educating the households about the available flood precautionary measures and communicating the flood protection measures taken by the government encourage the households to adopt measures without having to experience multiple flood events.
Annegret H. Thieken, Philip Bubeck, Anna Heidenreich, Jennifer von Keyserlingk, Lisa Dillenardt, and Antje Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 973–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In July 2021 intense rainfall caused devastating floods in western Europe with 184 fatalities in the German federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia (NW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), calling their warning system into question. An online survey revealed that 35 % of respondents from NW and 29 % from RP did not receive any warning. Many of those who were warned did not expect severe flooding, nor did they know how to react. The study provides entry points for improving Germany's warning system.
Blaise Mafuko Nyandwi, Matthieu Kervyn, François Muhashy Habiyaremye, François Kervyn, and Caroline Michellier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 933–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Risk perception involves the processes of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about the uncertain impacts of hazards. It may contribute to improving risk communication and motivating the protective behaviour of the population living near volcanoes. Our work describes the spatial variation and factors influencing volcanic risk perception of 2204 adults of Goma exposed to Nyiragongo. It contributes to providing a case study for risk perception understanding in the Global South.
Fatemeh Jalayer, Hossein Ebrahimian, Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, and Brendon Bradley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 909–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing tsunami fragility and the related uncertainties is crucial in the evaluation of incurred losses. Empirical fragility modelling is based on observed tsunami intensity and damage data. Fragility curves for hierarchical damage levels are distinguished by their laminar shape; that is, the curves should not intersect. However, this condition is not satisfied automatically. We present a workflow for hierarchical fragility modelling, uncertainty propagation and fragility model selection.
Cited articles
Aleotti, P.: A warning system for rainfall-induced shallow failures, Eng.
Geol., 73, 247–265, 2004.
Baum, R. L. and Godt, J. W.: Early warning of rainfall-induced shallow
landslides and debris flows in the USA, Landslides, 7, 259–272, 2010.
Bell, R., Thiebes, B., Glade, T., Vinogradov, R., Kuhlmann, H., Schauerte,
W., Burghaus, S., Krummel, H., Janik, M., and Paulsen, H.: The technical
concept within the Integrative Landslide Early Warning System (ILEWS),
landslides and engineered slopes, from the past to the future, in:
Proceedings of the 10th International Symposium on Landslides and Engineered
Slopes, 30 June–4 July 2008, Xi'an, China, 1083–1088, 2008.
Berti, M., Martina, M. L. V., Franceschini, S., Pignone, A., Simoni, A., and
Pizziolo, M.: Probabilistic rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence
using a Bayesian approach, J. Geophys. Res., 117, F04006, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JF002367, 2012.
Blikra, L. H.: The Åknes rockslide: monitoring, threshold values and
early-warning, in: Landslides and Engineered Slopes, edited by: Chen, Z.,
Zhang, J. M., Ho, K., Wu, F. Q., and Li, Z. K., Taylor & Francis Group,
London, 1089–1094, 2008.
Calvello, M., d'Orsi, R., Piciullo, L., Paes, N. M., Magalhaes, M. A.,
Coelho, R., and Lacerda, W. A.: The community-based alert and alarm system
for rainfall induced landslides in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in: Engineering
Geology for Society and Territory “Landslide Processes”, Proc. XII Int. IAEG
Congress, Torino, Italy, 2, 653–657, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09057-3_109, 2015a.
Calvello, M., d'Orsi, R. N., Piciullo, L., Paes, N., Magalhaes, M., and
Lacerda, W. A.: The Rio de Janeiro early warning system for rainfall-induced
landslides: analysis of performance for the years 2010–2013, Int.
J. Disast. Risk Reduc., 12, 3–15, 2015b.
Cannon, S., Boldt, E., Laber, J., Kean, J., and Staley, D.: Rainfall
intensity–duration thresholds for postfire debris-flow emergency response
planning, Nat. Hazards, 59, 209–236, 2011.
Capparelli, G. and Tiranti, D.: Application of the MoniFLaIR early warning system
for rainfall induced landslides in Piedmont region (Italy), Landslides, 7, 401–410, 2010.
Chan, R. K. S. and Pun, W. K.: Landslip warning system in Hong Kong, Geotec.
Instrum. News, 22, 33–35, 2004.
Cheung, P. Y., Wong, M. C., and Yeung, H. Y.: Application of rainstorm
nowcast to real-time warning of landslide hazards in Hong Kong, in: WMO PWS,
Workshop on Warnings of Real-Time Hazards by Using Nowcasting Technology,
9–13 October 2006, Sydney, Australia, 2006.
Chleborad, A. F.: A Method for Anticipating the Occurrence of Precipitation
induced Landslides in Seattle, Washington, US Geological Survey, Open-File
Report 00-469, US Geological Survey, Denver, USA, 29 pp., 2000.
Chleborad, A. F., Baum, R. L., and Godt, J. W.: A prototype system for
forecasting landslides in the Seattle, Washington, Area. in: Engineering
Geology and Landslides of the Seattle, Washington, Area: Geological Society
of America Reviews in Engineering Geology, edited by: Highland, L. M., Baum,
R. L., and Godt, J. W., Geological Society of America, Boulder, 103–120, 2008.
Coelho Netto, A. L., Avelar, A. S., Fernandes, M. C., and Lacerda, W. A.:
Landslide susceptibility in a mountainous geoecosystem, Tijuca Massif, Rio de
Janeiro: The role of morphometric subdivision of the terrain, Geomorphology,
87, 120–131, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2006.03.041, 2007.
Devoli, G., Ingeborg, K., Monica, S., Nils-Kristian, O., Ragnar, E., Erik,
J., and Hervé, C.: Landslide early warning system and web tools for
real-time scenarios and for distribution of warning messages in Norway, in:
Engineering Geology for Society and Territory “Landslide Processes”,
Proc. XII Int. IAEG Congress, Torino, Italy, 625–629, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09057-3_104, 2015.
DGR: n. 2312 del 27/12/2007, Deliberazione di Giunta Regionale dell'Umbria:
Disposizioni in attuazione dell'art, 3 bis della Legge 100/2012 e della
Direttiva del Presidente del Consiglio dei Ministri del 27.02.2004 – Sistema
di Allertamento Regionale e Centro Funzionale Regionale, Umbria, Italy, 2007.
DGR: n. 895 del 29/18/2013, Deliberazione di Giunta Regionale della Toscana:
Sistema di Allertamento Regionale e Centro Funzionale Regionale, Bollettino
ufficiale della regione Toscana, n. 46 del 13/11/2013, Toscana, Italy, 2013.
DGR: n. 395 del 7/04/2015, Deliberazione di Giunta Regionale della Toscana:
Sistema di Allertamento Regionale e Centro Funzionale Regionale, Bollettino
ufficiale della regione Toscana, n. 15 del 15/4/2015, Toscana, Italy, 2015.
Di Biagio, E. and Kjekstad, O.: Early Warning, Instrumentation and Monitoring
Landslides, in: Proceedings of the 2nd Regional Training Course, RECLAIM II,
29 January–2 February 2007, Phuket, Thailand, 2007.
d'Orsi, R. N.: Landslide risk reduction measures by the Rio de Janeiro city
government, in: Improving the Assessment of Disaster Risks to Strengthen
Financial Resilience, Special Joint G20 Publication, Government of Mexico
and World Bank, 77–91, available at: http://www.preventionweb.net/english/professional/publications/v.php?id=29011
(last access: 6 October 2015), 2012.
d'Orsi, R. N., D'Avila, C., Ortigao, J. A. R., Moraes, L., and Santos, M.
D.: Rio-Watch: the Rio de Janeiro landslide watch, in: Proceedings of the
2nd PSL Pan-Am Symposium on Landslides, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 21–30, 1997.
d'Orsi, R. N., Feijó, R. L., and Paes, N. M.: 2,500 Operational days of
Alerta Rio system: history and technical improvements of Rio de Janeiro
warning system for severe weather, in: Landslides: Evaluation and
Stabilization, edited by: Lacerda, W. A., Ehrlich, M., Fontoura, S. A. B.,
and Sayao, A. S. F., Taylor & Francis Group, London, 831–836, 2004.
DPCM: 27/02/2004, Direttiva Presidente Consiglio dei Ministri: Indirizzi
operativi per la gestione operativa e funzionale del sistema di allertamento
nazionale, statale e regionale per il rischio idrogeologico ed idraulico ai
fini di protezione civile, in: Gazzetta Ufficiale n. 59 del 11/03/2004,
Roma, Italy, 2004.
DPGR: n. 299 del 30/06/2005, Decreto del Presidente della
Giunta Regionale della Campania: Il Sistema di Allertamento Regionale per il
rischio Idrogeologico e Idraulico ai fini di protezione civile, Bollettino
ufficiale della regione Campania, n. speciale 01/08/2005, Campania, Italy, 2005.
DPRS: n. 626/GAB del 30/10/2014, Direttiva del Presidente della Regione
Siciliana: Competenze, struttura organizzativa e procedure di allertamento
del Centro Funzionale Decentrato Multirischio Integrato della Regione
Siciliana – Settore IDRO, Sicilia, Italy, 2014.
Fell, R., Ho, K. K. S., Lacasse, S., and Leroi, E.: A framework for
landslide risk assessment and management, in: Landslide Risk Management,
edited by: Hungr, O., Fell, R., Couture, R., and Eberhardt, E., Taylor and
Francis, London, 3–26, 2005.
Gariano, S. L., Brunetti, M. T., Iovine, G., Melillo, M., Peruccacci, S.,
Terranova, O., Vennari, C., and Guzzetti, F.: Calibration and validation of
rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide forecasting in Sicily, southern
Italy, Geomorphology, 228, 653–665, 2015.
Glade, T. and Nadim, F.: Early warning systems for natural hazards and
risks, Nat. Hazards, 70, 1669–1671, 2014.
Godt, J. W., Baum, R. L., and Chleborad, A. F.: Rainfall characteristics for
shallow landsliding in Seattle, Washington, USA, Earth Surf. Proc. Land.,
31, 97–110, 2006.
Greco, R., Giorgio, M., Capparelli, G., and Versace, P.: Early warning of
rainfall-induced landslides based on empirical mobility function predictor,
Eng. Geol., 153, 68–79, 2013.
Guzzetti, F., Peruccacci, S., Rossi, M., and Stark, C. P.: Rainfall
thresholds for the initiation of landslides in central and southern Europe,
Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 98, 239–67, 2007.
Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015: Building the Resilience of Nations
and Communities to Disasters, World Conference on Disaster Reduction
18–22 January 2005, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan, 22 pp., 2005.
International Centre of Geohazards: Guidelines for landslide monitoring and
early warning systems in Europe – design and required technology, in:
Project SafeLand “Living With Landslide Risk in Europe: Assessment, Effects
of Global Change, and Risk Management Strategies”, D4.8,
http://www.safeland-fp7.eu (last access: April 2015), 2012.
Intrieri, E., Gigli, G., Mugnai, F., Fanti, R., and Casagli, N.: Design and
implementation of a landslide early warning system, Eng. Geol., 147/148, 124–136, 2012.
Intrieri, E., Gigli, G., Casagli, N., and Nadim, F.: Brief communication
“Landslide Early Warning System: toolbox and general concepts”, Nat.
Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 85–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-85-2013, 2013.
Keefer, D. K., Wilson, R. C., Mark, R. K., Brabb, E. E., Brown III, W. M.,
Ellen, S. D., Harp, E. L., Wieczoreck, G. F., Alger, C. S., and Zatkin, R.
S.: Real-time landslide warning during heavy rainfall, Science, 238, 921–926, 1987.
Kirschbaum, D. B., Adler, R., Hong, Y., Kumar, S., Peters-Lidard, C., and
Lerner-Lam, A.: Advances in landslide nowcasting: evaluation of a global and
regional modeling approach, Environ. Earth Sci., 66, 1683–1696, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-011-0990-3, 2012.
Lagomarsino, D., Segoni, S., Fanti, R., and Catani, F.: Updating and tuning
a regional-scale landslide early warning system, Landslides, 10, 91–97, 2013.
Lagomarsino, D., Segoni, S., Rosi, A., Rossi, G., Battistini, A., Catani,
F., and Casagli, N.: Quantitative comparison between two different
methodologies to define rainfall thresholds for landslide forecasting, Nat.
Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2413–2423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2413-2015, 2015.
Lollino, G., Arattano, M., and Cuccureddu, M.: The use of the automatic
inclinometric system for landslide early warning: the case of Cabella Ligure
(North-Western Italy), Phys. Chem. Earth, 27, 1545–1550, 2002.
Martelloni, G., Segoni, S., Fanti, R., and Catani, F.: Rainfall thresholds
for the forecasting of landslide occurrence at regional scale, Landslides,
9, 485–495, 2012.
Maskrey, A.: Report on National and Local Capabilities for Early Warning,
IDNDR Early Warning Programme, available at: http://www.unisdr.org/2006/ppew/whats-ew/pdf/national-and-local-capabilities-ew-maskrey.pdf
last access: 15 July 2015, IDNDR Secretariat, Geneva, 33 pp., 1997.
Michoud, C., Bazin, S., Blikra, L. H., Derron, M.-H., and Jaboyedoff, M.:
Experiences from site-specific landslide early warning systems, Nat. Hazards
Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2659–2673, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2659-2013, 2013.
NOAA-USGS Debris Flow Task Force: NOAA-USGS Debris-Flow Warning System,
Final report, US Geological Survey Circular 1283, available at:
http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/2005/1283/pdf/Circular1283.pdf, last access:
November 2014, US Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia, USA, 47 pp., 2005.
Osanai, N., Shimizu, T., Kuramoto, K., Kojima, S., and Noro, T.: Japanese
early-warning for debris flows and slope failures using rainfall indices
with Radial Basis Function Network, Landslides, 7, 325–338, 2010.
Peres, D. J. and Cancelliere, A.: Development of rainfall thresholds for
landslide early warning in Sicily: a method based on the use of rainfall
annual maxima series, Rend. Online Soc. Geol. It., 21, 580–582, 2012.
Restrepo, P., Jorgensen, D. P., Cannon, S. H., Costa, J., Laber, J., Major,
J., Martner, B., Purpura, J., and Werner, K.: Joint NOAA/NWS/USGS prototype
debris flow warning system for recently burned areas in southern California,
B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 89, 1845, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008BAMS2416.1, 2008.
Rossi, M., Peruccacci, S., Brunetti, M. T., Marchesini, I., Luciani, S.,
Ardizzone, F., Balducci, V., Bianchi, C., Cardinali, M., Fiorucci, F.,
Mondini, A. C., Reichenbach, P., Salvati, P., Santangelo, M., Bartolini, D.,
Gariano, S. L., Palladino, M., Vessia, G., Viero, A., Antronico, L.,
Borselli, L., Deganutti, A. M., Iovine, G., Luino, F., Parise, M., Polemio,
M., and Guzzetti, F.: SANF: National warning system for rainfall-induced
landslides in Italy, in: Landslides and Engineered Slopes: Protecting
Society through Improved Understanding, edited by: Eberhardt, E., Froese,
C., Turner, K., and Leroueil, S., Taylor & Francis, London, 1895–1899, 2012.
Segoni, S., Rossi, G., Rosi, A., and Catani, F.: Landslides triggered by
rainfall: a semiautomated procedure to define consistent intensity-duration
thresholds, Comput. Geosci., 3063, 123–131, 2014.
Segoni, S., Battistini, A., Rossi, G., Rosi, A., Lagomarsino, D., Catani,
F., Moretti, S., and Casagli, N.: Technical Note: An operational landslide
early warning system at regional scale based on space–time-variable
rainfall thresholds, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 853–861,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-853-2015, 2015.
Stähli, M., Sättele, M., Huggel, C., McArdell, B. W., Lehmann, P.,
Van Herwijnen, A., Berne, A., Schleiss, M., Ferrari, A., Kos, A., Or, D.,
and Springman, S. M.: Monitoring and prediction in early warning systems for
rapid mass movements, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 905–917,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-905-2015, 2015.
Staley, D. M., Kean, J. W., Cannon, S. H., Schmidt, K. M., and Laber, J. L.:
Objective definition of rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for the
initiation of post-fire debris flows in southern California, Landslides, 10,
547–562, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-012-0341-9, 2013.
Thiebes, B., Glade, T., and Bell, R.: Landslide analysis and integrative
early warning-local and regional case studies, in: Landslides and Engineered
Slopes: Protecting Society through Improved Understanding, edited by:
Eberhardt, E., Taylor & Francis Group, London, 1915–1921, 2012.
Thiebes, B., Bell, R., Glade, T., Jäger, S., Mayer, J., Anderson, M.,
and Holcombe, L.: Integration of a limit-equilibrium model into a landslide
early warning system, Landslides, 11, 859–875, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-013-0416-2, 2013a.
Thiebes, B., Glade, T., and Bell, R.: Landslide analysis and integrative
early warning local and regional case studies, in: Landslides and Engineered
Slopes, edited by: Eberhardt, E., Froese, C. R., Turner, A. K., and
Leroueil, S., Taylor & Francis Group, London, 1915–1921, 2013b.
Tiranti, D. and Rabuetti, D.: Estimation of rainfall thresholds triggering
shallow landslides for an operational warning system implementation,
Landslides, 7, 471–481, 2010.
Villagrán de León, J. C., Pruessner, I., and Breedlove, H.: Alert
and Warning Frameworks in the Context of Early Warning Systems, a
Comparative Review, Intersections No. 12, United Nations University
Institute for Environment and Human Security, Bonn, 2013.
Wilson, R. C.: The rise and fall of a debris-flow warning system for the San
Francisco Bay Region, California, in: Landslide Hazard and Risk, edited by:
Glade, T., Anderson, M., and Crozier, M. J., Wiley, New York, 493–516, 2004.
Yu, Y. F., Lam, J. S., and Siu, C. K.: Interim Report on Review of Landslip
Warning Criteria, Special Projects Division, Special Project Report 4/2003,
Geotechnical Engineering Office, Civil Engineering Department, SAR Government,
Hong Kong, 20 pp., 2003.
Short summary
An original approach, called EDuMaP method, is proposed to assess the performance of landslide early warning models operating at regional scale. EDuMaP comprises three successive steps: definition and temporal analysis of warning and landslide events (E); computation of a duration matrix (DuMa); evaluation of the warning model performance (P). The EDuMaP method may be easily adapted to evaluate the performance of regional early warning models addressing other hazardous phenomena.
An original approach, called EDuMaP method, is proposed to assess the performance of landslide...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint