This paper discusses the differences that are found between flood damage estimation models. Based on an explanation of these differences, a method to quantify the uncertainty in flood damage models is proposed. An uncertainty estimate is made for a case study and the potential implications of uncertainty in flood damage estimation for investment decisions is shown.
In this paper, a newly derived flood loss function for Australian residential structures (FLFArs) is presented and calibrated by using historic data collected from an extreme event in Queensland, Australia, that occurred in 2013. Afterwards, the performance of FLFArs has been compared with the observed damage data collected from a 2012 flood event in Maranoa, Queensland. Based on this analysis, validation of FLFArs has been performed in terms of Australian geographical conditions.
The paper focuses on the potential health risks caused by the sub-10 micron fraction of volcanic ash (PM10) following explosive eruptions of Mt. Etna (Italy). We present the results of a study on the ash concentration in the air of urbanized areas after the 15 November 2011 lava fountain and the related tephra fallout, causing high levels of PM10 in the air. We conclude by hoping that due attention will be given to the impact of ash fallout on the Etnean territory in the future.
This research was motivated by damage of underwater cables and pipelines caused by turbidity flows which regularly take place along the eastern coast of Taiwan. Elevated discharge of terrigenous sediments during typhoons and their subsequent settling on the steep sea floor can cause submarine landslides which induce such turbidity flows. In this article we simulated the fate of sediments discharged from the Peinan River and identified areas which exhibit a high risk of turbidity flows.
This is a new seismic zonation model of 113 shallow zones for the broader Aegean area, which can be used for seismic hazard assessment. This model is based on seismicity information and incorporates all available seismotectonic and neotectonic information, to define zones which show homogeneous seismicity and similar active faulting characteristics. Using this model, a detailed study is performed for the catalogue completeness, as well as seismicity parameters (a and b) and their distribution.
This paper presents the development and application of a prototype web-GIS tool for risk analysis, in particular for floods and landslides, based on open-source software and web technologies. The aim is to assist experts (risk managers) in analysing the impacts and consequences of a certain hazard event in a considered region, contributing to open-source and research community in natural hazards and risk assessment. The tool is demonstrated using a regional data set of Fella River basin, Italy.
An original approach, called EDuMaP method, is proposed to assess the performance of landslide early warning models operating at regional scale. EDuMaP comprises three successive steps: definition and temporal analysis of warning and landslide events (E); computation of a duration matrix (DuMa); evaluation of the warning model performance (P). The EDuMaP method may be easily adapted to evaluate the performance of regional early warning models addressing other hazardous phenomena.
Natural disasters are too often presented as resulting from extreme natural phenomena affecting helpless populations. However, what are the real factors influencing a disaster? Hazagora is a board game aimed at inducing a better understanding of geohazards and disasters and at generating discussions about risk management strategies. Based on analysis, Hazagora appears to be an effective, fun learning tool that positively enhances the player's insight into processes involved in disasters.
We suggest a generic classification of early warning systems for natural hazards, which distinguishes alarm, warning, and forecasting systems. On the basis of this classification, we developed a three-step framework for evaluating the effectiveness of such systems and illustrate its applicability using case studies. Our results will support practitioners in comparing the effectiveness of early warning systems with those of structural mitigation measures.
This work presents a methodology to conduct a probabilistic analysis of the storm impact on a barrier island. A subset of wave conditions from a 30-year hindcast is propagated to the shore to predict the extreme run-up. Subsequently, a 30-year run-up hindcast is estimated using a multivariate interpolation technique. This information is used to derive a new run-up parameterization that predicts both the run-up saturation and its dependency on sea level as observed in the downscaling results.
The paper compares two methodologies adopted by the Emilia-Romagna region, northern Italy, to evaluate coastal vulnerability and to produce hazard and risk maps for coastal floods, in the framework of the EU Floods Directive. The flooded area extension is determined by a series of computations, whose core is the Cost Distance tool of ArcGIS®. The qualitative validation and the comparison between the two methods show a positive agreement.
A model has been developed in order to estimate insurance-related losses caused by coastal flooding in France. It aims to identify the potential flood-impacted sectors and the subsequent insured losses a few days after the occurrence of a storm surge event on any part of the French coast. This system shows satisfactory results in the estimation of the losses related to Xynthia storm surge, which was used for the model's calibration.
The performance of a state-of-the-art early-warning system for the coastline of Emilia-Romagna in northern Italy is rigorously assessed with regards to a major storm event that occurred in October 2012. It is found that such a system has great potential as a new tool for coastal management, following several improvements to the forecast model chain. What-if scenarios in terms of the construction of artificial dunes prior to this event suggest that this may have helped minimize storm impacts.
A new method is presented to analyse coastal tide-gauge recordings in the period range typical of local seiches, coastal shelf resonances and tsunamis. The method computes the instantaneous slope IS, the reconstructed sea level (RSL), and the control function (CF), that are shown to follow the Student's t distribution (IS and RSL) and the Beta distribution (CF) functions. As an example, the method is applied to data from the tide-gauge station of Syracuse, Italy.
The number of large forest fires in Finland will most likely increase during the twenty-first century in response to projected climate change. This would increase the risk that some of the fires could develop into real conflagrations which have become almost extinct in Finland due to effective fire suppression. However, our results show considerable inter-model variability, demonstrating the large uncertainty related to the rate of the projected change in forest-fire danger.
This paper presents a review of a large number of research studies focused on the investigation of cold season extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in the Mediterranean region (MR) demonstrating an important role of anomalously intense transports of moist air from the tropical and subtropical Atlantic in the occurrence of the MR EPEs. The issue of a possible role of the recent past decline in Arctic sea ice in the climatology of the MR EPEs during the period is also addressed.
This study assesses the value of a novel technology, mobile augmented reality, for rapid damage and safety assessment of the state of buildings in the aftermath of a disaster event. In this study, we propose and demonstrate conceptual frameworks and approaches for in situ ground-based assessment based on augmented reality using mobile devices such as smartphones and tablet PCs.