Articles | Volume 16, issue 1
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 195–207, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-195-2016
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 195–207, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-195-2016

Research article 20 Jan 2016

Research article | 20 Jan 2016

Estimation of insurance-related losses resulting from coastal flooding in France

J. P. Naulin1, D. Moncoulon1, S. Le Roy2, R. Pedreros2, D. Idier2, and C. Oliveros2 J. P. Naulin et al.
  • 1CCR, 157 bd. Haussmann, 75008 Paris, France
  • 2BRGM, 3 av. C. Guillemin, 45060 Orléans, France

Abstract. A model has been developed in order to estimate insurance-related losses caused by coastal flooding in France. The deterministic part of the model aims at identifying the potentially flood-impacted sectors and the subsequent insured losses a few days after the occurrence of a storm surge event on any part of the French coast. This deterministic component is a combination of three models: a hazard model, a vulnerability model, and a damage model. The first model uses the PREVIMER system to estimate the water level resulting from the simultaneous occurrence of a high tide and a surge caused by a meteorological event along the coast. A storage-cell flood model propagates these water levels over the land and thus determines the probable inundated areas. The vulnerability model, for its part, is derived from the insurance schedules and claims database, combining information such as risk type, class of business, and insured values. The outcome of the vulnerability and hazard models are then combined with the damage model to estimate the event damage and potential insured losses. This system shows satisfactory results in the estimation of the magnitude of the known losses related to the flood caused by the Xynthia storm. However, it also appears very sensitive to the water height estimated during the flood period, conditioned by the junction between seawater levels and coastal topography, the accuracy for which is still limited by the amount of information in the system.

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A model has been developed in order to estimate insurance-related losses caused by coastal flooding in France. It aims to identify the potential flood-impacted sectors and the subsequent insured losses a few days after the occurrence of a storm surge event on any part of the French coast. This system shows satisfactory results in the estimation of the losses related to Xynthia storm surge, which was used for the model's calibration.
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