Articles | Volume 25, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1229-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1229-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
31 Mar 2025
Research article |
| 31 Mar 2025
| 31 Mar 2025
Topographic controls on landslide mobility: modeling hurricane-induced landslide runout and debris-flow inundation in Puerto Rico
U.S. Geological Survey, Volcano Science Center, Moffett Field, CA 94035, USA
Mark E. Reid
U.S. Geological Survey, Volcano Science Center, Moffett Field, CA 94035, USA
Collin Cronkite-Ratcliff
U.S. Geological Survey, Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center, Moffett Field, CA 94035, USA
Jonathan P. Perkins
U.S. Geological Survey, Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center, Moffett Field, CA 94035, USA
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We mapped potential for heavy rainfall to cause landslides in part of the central mountains of Puerto Rico using new tools for estimating soil depth and quasi-3D slope stability. Potential ground-failure locations correlate well with the spatial density of landslides from Hurricane Maria. The smooth boundaries of the very high and high ground-failure susceptibility zones enclose 75 % and 90 %, respectively, of observed landslides. The maps can help mitigate ground-failure hazards.
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Rainfall-induced landslides result in deaths and economic losses annually across the globe. However, it is unclear how storm severity relates to landslide severity across large regions. Here we develop a method to dynamically map landslide-affected areas, and we compare this to meteorological estimates of storm severity. We find that preconditioning by earlier storms and the location of rainfall bursts, rather than atmospheric storm strength, dictate landslide magnitude and pattern.
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Short summary
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We mapped potential for heavy rainfall to cause landslides in part of the central mountains of Puerto Rico using new tools for estimating soil depth and quasi-3D slope stability. Potential ground-failure locations correlate well with the spatial density of landslides from Hurricane Maria. The smooth boundaries of the very high and high ground-failure susceptibility zones enclose 75 % and 90 %, respectively, of observed landslides. The maps can help mitigate ground-failure hazards.
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Wallace, C. S. and Santi, P. M.: Runout Number: a new metric for landslide runout characterization, Environ. Eng. Geosci., 27, 455–470, https://doi.org/10.2113/eeg-d-20-00144, 2021.
Wallace, C. S., Santi, P. M., and Walton, G.: Scoring system to predict landslide runout in the Pacific Northwest, USA, Landslides, 19, 1449–1461, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-021-01839-7, 2022.
Short summary
Landslide runout zones are the areas downslope or downstream of landslide initiation. People often live and work in these areas, leading to property damage and deaths. Landslide runout may occur on hillslopes or in channels, requiring different modeling approaches. We develop methods to identify potential runout zones and apply these methods to identify susceptible areas for three municipalities in Puerto Rico.
Landslide runout zones are the areas downslope or downstream of landslide initiation. People...
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