Articles | Volume 24, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3945-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3945-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
19 Nov 2024
Research article |
| 19 Nov 2024
| 19 Nov 2024
The European Fault-Source Model 2020 (EFSM20): geologic input data for the European Seismic Hazard Model 2020
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, 00143 Rome, Italy
Laurentiu Danciu
Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Céline Beauval
ISTerre, IRD, Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, Univ. Gustave Eiffel, Grenoble, France
Karin Sesetyan
Boğaziçi University, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Department of Earthquake Engineering, 34684 Istanbul, Türkiye
Susana Pires Vilanova
Instituto Superior Tecnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
Shota Adamia
Institute of Geophysics, Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi, Georgia
Pierre Arroucau
Electricité de France, TEGG, Aix-en-Provence, France
Jure Atanackov
Geological Survey of Slovenia, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Stéphane Baize
Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire, Fontenay-aux-Roses, France
Carolina Canora
Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias, Dpto. Geología y Geoquímica, 28049 Madrid, Spain
Riccardo Caputo
Department of Physics and Earth Sciences, University of Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy
Michele Matteo Cosimo Carafa
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, 00143 Rome, Italy
Edward Marc Cushing
Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire, Fontenay-aux-Roses, France
Susana Custódio
Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal
Mine Betul Demircioglu Tumsa
Turkish Earthquake Foundation, Istanbul, Türkiye
João C. Duarte
Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal
Athanassios Ganas
National Observatory of Athens (NOA), Athens, Greece
Julián García-Mayordomo
Instituto Geológico y Minero de España (IGME-CSIC), 28760 Madrid, Spain
Laura Gómez de la Peña
Institut de Ciències del Mar-CSIC, Barcelona, Spain
Eulàlia Gràcia
Institut de Ciències del Mar-CSIC, Barcelona, Spain
Petra Jamšek Rupnik
Geological Survey of Slovenia, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Hervé Jomard
Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire, Fontenay-aux-Roses, France
Vanja Kastelic
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, 00143 Rome, Italy
Francesco Emanuele Maesano
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, 00143 Rome, Italy
Raquel Martín-Banda
Instituto Geológico y Minero de España (IGME-CSIC), 28760 Madrid, Spain
Sara Martínez-Loriente
Institut de Ciències del Mar-CSIC, Barcelona, Spain
Marta Neres
Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera, 1749-077 Lisboa, Portugal
Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal
Hector Perea
Institut de Ciències del Mar-CSIC, Barcelona, Spain
Barbara Šket Motnikar
Slovenian Environment Agency, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Mara Monica Tiberti
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, 00143 Rome, Italy
Nino Tsereteli
Institute of Geophysics, Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi, Georgia
Varvara Tsironi
National Observatory of Athens (NOA), Athens, Greece
Roberto Vallone
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, 00143 Rome, Italy
Kris Vanneste
Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium
Polona Zupančič
Slovenian Environment Agency, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Domenico Giardini
Institute of Geophysics, Department of Earth Sciences, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Related authors
Laurentiu Danciu, Domenico Giardini, Graeme Weatherill, Roberto Basili, Shyam Nandan, Andrea Rovida, Céline Beauval, Pierre-Yves Bard, Marco Pagani, Celso G. Reyes, Karin Sesetyan, Susana Vilanova, Fabrice Cotton, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3049–3073, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3049-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) is the latest seismic hazard assessment update for the Euro-Mediterranean region. This state-of-the-art model delivers a broad range of hazard results, including hazard curves, maps, and uniform hazard spectra. ESHM20 provides two hazard maps as informative references in the next update of the European Seismic Design Code (CEN EC8), and it also provides a key input to the first earthquake risk model for Europe.
Enrico Baglione, Stefano Lorito, Alessio Piatanesi, Fabrizio Romano, Roberto Basili, Beatriz Brizuela, Roberto Tonini, Manuela Volpe, Hafize Basak Bayraktar, and Alessandro Amato
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3713–3730, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3713-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3713-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the seismic fault structure and the rupture characteristics of the MW 6.6, 2 May 2020, Cretan Passage earthquake through tsunami data inverse modelling. Our results suggest a shallow crustal event with a reverse mechanism within the accretionary wedge rather than on the Hellenic Arc subduction interface. The study identifies two possible ruptures: a steeply sloping reverse splay fault and a back-thrust rupture dipping south, with a more prominent dip angle.
R. Basili, M. M. Tiberti, V. Kastelic, F. Romano, A. Piatanesi, J. Selva, and S. Lorito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1025–1050, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1025-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1025-2013, 2013
Octavi Gómez-Novell, Francesco Visini, José A. Álvarez-Gómez, Bruno Pace, and Julián García-Mayordomo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.174973163.39901434/v2, https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.174973163.39901434/v2, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquake surface ruptures are a hazard for infrastructure and life that requires proper assessment. We use a physics-based earthquake cycle simulator to derive fault displacement hazard statistics in a test fault system and their dependence to fault geometry. Our results show that more complex fault geometries increase surface rupture probabilities and might improve the agreement with observations. Earthquake cycle simulators are thus a promising tool for fault displacement hazard analyses.
Océane Foix, Stéphane Mazzotti, Hervé Jomard, Didier Bertil, and the Lesser Antilles Working Group
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1881–1900, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1881-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1881-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
By analyzing historical and instrumental seismic data, fault knowledge, and geodetic measurements, we provide a new understanding of seismic hazard in the Lesser Antilles via seismotectonic zoning. We propose new models that can have a significant impact on seismic hazard assessment, such as the inclusion of mantle wedge seismicity, the inclusion of volcanic seismicity, and a complete revision of the subduction interface zoning.
Bénédicte Donniol Jouve, Anne Socquet, Céline Beauval, Jesus Piña Valdès, and Laurentiu Danciu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1789–1809, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1789-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1789-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate how geodetic monitoring enhances accuracy in seismic hazard assessment. By utilizing geodetic strain rate maps for Europe and the European Seismic Hazard Model 2020 source model, we compare geodetic and seismic moment rates across the continent while addressing associated uncertainties. Our analysis reveals primary compatibility in high-activity zones. In well-constrained regions of lower activity, we also observed an overlap in the distribution of seismic and geodetic moments.
Kathrin Behnen, Marian Hertrich, Hansruedi Maurer, Alexis Shakas, Kai Bröker, Claire Epiney, María Blanch Jover, and Domenico Giardini
Solid Earth, 16, 333–350, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-16-333-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-16-333-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Several cross-hole seismic surveys in the undisturbed Rotondo granite are used to analyze the seismic anisotropy in the Bedretto Lab, Switzerland. The P and S1 waves show a clear trend of faster velocities in the NE–SW direction and slower velocities perpendicular to it, indicating a tilted transverse isotropic velocity model. The symmetry plane is mostly aligned with the direction of maximum stress, but also the orientation of fractures is expected to influence the velocities.
Antonio J. Olaiz, José A. Álvarez Gómez, Gerardo de Vicente, Alfonso Muñoz-Martín, Juan V. Cantavella, Susana Custódio, Dina Vales, and Oliver Heidbach
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4126, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4126, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the stress and strain conditions in the Earth crust is crucial for various activities, such as oil and gas exploration and assessing seismic hazards. In this article, we have updated the database of moment tensor focal mechanisms for the Greater Iberia. We conducted kinematic and dynamic analyses on the selected populations, determining the average focal mechanism, strain and stress orientations, and tectonic regime. The orientation for horizontal compression is primarily N154° E.
Elena F. Manea, Laurentiu Danciu, Carmen O. Cioflan, Dragos Toma-Danila, and Matthew C. Gerstenberger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We test and evaluate the results of the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) against observations spanning a few centuries at 12 cities in Romania. The full distributions of the hazard curves at the given locations were considered, and the testing was performed for two relevant peak ground acceleration (PGA) values. Our analysis suggests that the observed exceedance rates for the selected PGA levels are consistent with ESHM20 estimates.
Sarah El Kadri, Celine Beauval, Marlene Brax, and Yann Klinger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-184, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-184, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic hazard evaluation is required for establishing earthquake-resistant building codes. Our aim is to improve the quantification of seismic hazard in the Levant by including our knowledge on how faults may be interconnected. We build an earthquake forecast by redistributing the energy stored in the fault system over all possible earthquake ruptures. This interconnected fault model leads to seismic hazard maps where hazard is as high on secondary fault branches as on main branches.
Athanasios N. Papadopoulos, Philippe Roth, Laurentiu Danciu, Paolo Bergamo, Francesco Panzera, Donat Fäh, Carlo Cauzzi, Blaise Duvernay, Alireza Khodaverdian, Pierino Lestuzzi, Ömer Odabaşi, Ettore Fagà, Paolo Bazzurro, Michèle Marti, Nadja Valenzuela, Irina Dallo, Nicolas Schmid, Philip Kästli, Florian Haslinger, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3561–3578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3561-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3561-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland (ERM-CH23), released in early 2023, is the culmination of a multidisciplinary effort aiming to achieve, for the first time, a comprehensive assessment of the potential consequences of earthquakes on the Swiss building stock and population. ERM-CH23 provides risk estimates for various impact metrics, ranging from economic loss as a result of damage to buildings and their contents to human losses, such as deaths, injuries, and displaced population.
Morgan Vervoort, Katleen Wils, Kris Vanneste, Roberto Urrutia, Mario Pino, Catherine Kissel, Marc De Batist, and Maarten Van Daele
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3401–3421, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3401-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study identifies a prehistoric earthquake around 4400 years ago near the city of Coyhaique (Aysén Region, Chilean Patagonia) and illustrates the potential seismic hazard in the region. We found deposits in lakes and a fjord that can be related to subaquatic and onshore landslides, all with a similar age, indicating that they were most likely caused by an earthquake. Through modeling we found that this was an earthquake of magnitude 6.3 to 7.0 on a fault near the city of Coyhaique.
Laurentiu Danciu, Domenico Giardini, Graeme Weatherill, Roberto Basili, Shyam Nandan, Andrea Rovida, Céline Beauval, Pierre-Yves Bard, Marco Pagani, Celso G. Reyes, Karin Sesetyan, Susana Vilanova, Fabrice Cotton, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3049–3073, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3049-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) is the latest seismic hazard assessment update for the Euro-Mediterranean region. This state-of-the-art model delivers a broad range of hazard results, including hazard curves, maps, and uniform hazard spectra. ESHM20 provides two hazard maps as informative references in the next update of the European Seismic Design Code (CEN EC8), and it also provides a key input to the first earthquake risk model for Europe.
Peter Achtziger-Zupančič, Alberto Ceccato, Alba Simona Zappone, Giacomo Pozzi, Alexis Shakas, Florian Amann, Whitney Maria Behr, Daniel Escallon Botero, Domenico Giardini, Marian Hertrich, Mohammadreza Jalali, Xiaodong Ma, Men-Andrin Meier, Julian Osten, Stefan Wiemer, and Massimo Cocco
Solid Earth, 15, 1087–1112, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-1087-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-1087-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We detail the selection and characterization of a fault zone for earthquake experiments in the Fault Activation and Earthquake Ruptures (FEAR) project at the Bedretto Lab. FEAR, which studies earthquake processes, overcame data collection challenges near faults. The fault zone in Rotondo granite was selected based on geometry, monitorability, and hydro-mechanical properties. Remote sensing, borehole logging, and geological mapping were used to create a 3D model for precise monitoring.
Jon B. May, Peter Bird, and Michele M. C. Carafa
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6153–6171, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6153-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6153-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
ShellSet is a combination of well-known geoscience software packages. It features a simple user interface and is optimised through the addition of a grid search input option (automatically searching for optimal models within a defined N-dimensional parameter space) and the ability to run multiple models in parallel. We show that for each number of models tested there is a performance benefit to parallel running, while two examples demonstrate a use case by improving an existing global model.
Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, Pierre Gehl, Caterina Negulescu, Helen Crowley, and Laurentiu Danciu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2383–2401, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2383-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The models used to estimate the probability of exceeding a level of earthquake damage are essential to the reduction of disasters. These models consist of components that may be tested individually; however testing these types of models as a whole is challenging. Here, we use observations of damage caused by the 2019 Le Teil earthquake and estimations from other models to test components of seismic risk models.
Mathilde Banjan, Christian Crouzet, Hervé Jomard, Pierre Sabatier, David Marsan, and Erwan Messager
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-83, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-83, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This research shows how lake sediments reveal seismic activity history over extended periods, surpassing historical records. Sediment analysis from Lake Aiguebelette in the Western Alps found 32 layers likely caused by earthquakes over the Holocene. Robust dating methods correlated these layers with known historical earthquakes. Results suggest Lake Aiguebelette's sediment records mainly reflect local seismic events, enhancing understanding of earthquake recurrence and regional seismic history.
Graeme Weatherill, Sreeram Reddy Kotha, Laurentiu Danciu, Susana Vilanova, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1795–1834, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1795-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1795-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ground motion models (GMMs) selected for the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) and their uncertainties require adaptation to different tectonic environments. Using insights from new data, local experts and developments in the scientific literature, we further calibrate the ESHM20 GMM logic tree to capture previously unmodelled regional variation. We also propose a new scaled-backbone logic tree for application to Europe's subduction zones and the Vrancea deep seismic source.
Polona Zupančič, Barbara Šket Motnikar, Michele M. C. Carafa, Petra Jamšek Rupnik, Mladen Živčić, Vanja Kastelic, Gregor Rajh, Martina Čarman, Jure Atanackov, and Andrej Gosar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 651–672, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-651-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-651-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We considered two parameters that affect seismic hazard assessment in Slovenia. The first parameter we determined is the thickness of the lithosphere's section where earthquakes are generated. The second parameter is the activity of each fault, which is expressed by its average displacement per year (slip rate). Since the slip rate can be either seismic or aseismic, we estimated both components. This analysis was based on geological and seismological data and was validated through comparisons.
Maren Böse, Laurentiu Danciu, Athanasios Papadopoulos, John Clinton, Carlo Cauzzi, Irina Dallo, Leila Mizrahi, Tobias Diehl, Paolo Bergamo, Yves Reuland, Andreas Fichtner, Philippe Roth, Florian Haslinger, Frédérick Massin, Nadja Valenzuela, Nikola Blagojević, Lukas Bodenmann, Eleni Chatzi, Donat Fäh, Franziska Glueer, Marta Han, Lukas Heiniger, Paulina Janusz, Dario Jozinović, Philipp Kästli, Federica Lanza, Timothy Lee, Panagiotis Martakis, Michèle Marti, Men-Andrin Meier, Banu Mena Cabrera, Maria Mesimeri, Anne Obermann, Pilar Sanchez-Pastor, Luca Scarabello, Nicolas Schmid, Anastasiia Shynkarenko, Bozidar Stojadinović, Domenico Giardini, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 583–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-583-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic hazard and risk are time dependent as seismicity is clustered and exposure can change rapidly. We are developing an interdisciplinary dynamic earthquake risk framework for advancing earthquake risk mitigation in Switzerland. This includes various earthquake risk products and services, such as operational earthquake forecasting and early warning. Standardisation and harmonisation into seamless solutions that access the same databases, workflows, and software are a crucial component.
Irina Dallo, Michèle Marti, Nadja Valenzuela, Helen Crowley, Jamal Dabbeek, Laurentiu Danciu, Simone Zaugg, Fabrice Cotton, Domenico Giardini, Rui Pinho, John F. Schneider, Céline Beauval, António A. Correia, Olga-Joan Ktenidou, Päivi Mäntyniemi, Marco Pagani, Vitor Silva, Graeme Weatherill, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 291–307, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-291-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-291-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the release of cross-country harmonised hazard and risk models, a communication strategy co-defined by the model developers and communication experts is needed. The strategy should consist of a communication concept, user testing, expert feedback mechanisms, and the establishment of a network with outreach specialists. Here we present our approach for the release of the European Seismic Hazard Model and European Seismic Risk Model and provide practical recommendations for similar efforts.
John Douglas, Helen Crowley, Vitor Silva, Warner Marzocchi, Laurentiu Danciu, and Rui Pinho
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-991, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-991, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Estimates of the earthquake ground motions expected during the lifetime of a building or the length of an insurance policy are frequently calculated for locations around the world. Estimates for the same location from different studies can show large differences. These differences affect engineering, financial and risk management decisions. We apply various approaches to understand when such differences have an impact on such decisions and when they are expected because data are limited.
Paola Sbarra, Pierfrancesco Burrato, Valerio De Rubeis, Patrizia Tosi, Gianluca Valensise, Roberto Vallone, and Paola Vannoli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1007–1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1007-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1007-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquakes are fundamental for understanding how the earth works and for assessing seismic risk. We can easily measure the magnitude and depth of today's earthquakes, but can we also do it for pre-instrumental ones? We did it by analyzing the decay of earthquake effects (on buildings, people, and objects) with epicentral distance. Our results may help derive data that would be impossible to obtain otherwise, for any country where the earthquake history extends for centuries, such as Italy.
Xiaodong Ma, Marian Hertrich, Florian Amann, Kai Bröker, Nima Gholizadeh Doonechaly, Valentin Gischig, Rebecca Hochreutener, Philipp Kästli, Hannes Krietsch, Michèle Marti, Barbara Nägeli, Morteza Nejati, Anne Obermann, Katrin Plenkers, Antonio P. Rinaldi, Alexis Shakas, Linus Villiger, Quinn Wenning, Alba Zappone, Falko Bethmann, Raymi Castilla, Francisco Seberto, Peter Meier, Thomas Driesner, Simon Loew, Hansruedi Maurer, Martin O. Saar, Stefan Wiemer, and Domenico Giardini
Solid Earth, 13, 301–322, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-13-301-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-13-301-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Questions on issues such as anthropogenic earthquakes and deep geothermal energy developments require a better understanding of the fractured rock. Experiments conducted at reduced scales but with higher-resolution observations can shed some light. To this end, the BedrettoLab was recently established in an existing tunnel in Ticino, Switzerland, with preliminary efforts to characterize realistic rock mass behavior at the hectometer scale.
Margarida Ramalho, Luis Matias, Marta Neres, Michele M. C. Carafa, Alexandra Carvalho, and Paula Teves-Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 117–138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-117-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-117-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is the most common tool used to decide on the acceptable seismic risk by society and mitigation measures. In slowly deforming regions, such Iberia, the earthquake generation models (EGMs) for PSHA suffer from great uncertainty. In this work we propose two sanity tests to be applied to EGMs, comparing the EGM moment release with constrains derived from GNSS observations or neotectonic modelling. Similar tests should be part of other region studies.
Enrico Baglione, Stefano Lorito, Alessio Piatanesi, Fabrizio Romano, Roberto Basili, Beatriz Brizuela, Roberto Tonini, Manuela Volpe, Hafize Basak Bayraktar, and Alessandro Amato
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3713–3730, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3713-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3713-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the seismic fault structure and the rupture characteristics of the MW 6.6, 2 May 2020, Cretan Passage earthquake through tsunami data inverse modelling. Our results suggest a shallow crustal event with a reverse mechanism within the accretionary wedge rather than on the Hellenic Arc subduction interface. The study identifies two possible ruptures: a steeply sloping reverse splay fault and a back-thrust rupture dipping south, with a more prominent dip angle.
Christoph Grützner, Simone Aschenbrenner, Petra Jamšek
Rupnik, Klaus Reicherter, Nour Saifelislam, Blaž Vičič, Marko Vrabec, Julian Welte, and Kamil Ustaszewski
Solid Earth, 12, 2211–2234, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-2211-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-2211-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Several large strike-slip faults in western Slovenia are known to be active, but most of them have not produced strong earthquakes in historical times. In this study we use geomorphology, near-surface geophysics, and fault excavations to show that two of these faults had surface-rupturing earthquakes during the Holocene. Instrumental and historical seismicity data do not capture the strongest events in this area.
Marguerite Mathey, Christian Sue, Colin Pagani, Stéphane Baize, Andrea Walpersdorf, Thomas Bodin, Laurent Husson, Estelle Hannouz, and Bertrand Potin
Solid Earth, 12, 1661–1681, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-1661-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-1661-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This work features the highest-resolution seismic stress and strain fields available at the present time for the analysis of the active crustal deformation of the Western Alps. In this paper, we address a large dataset of newly computed focal mechanisms from a statistical standpoint, which allows us to suggest a joint control from far-field forces and from buoyancy forces on the present-day deformation of the Western Alps.
Alessandro Tibaldi, Federico Pasquaré Mariotto, Paolo Oppizzi, Fabio Luca Bonali, Nino Tsereteli, Levan Mebonia, and Johni Chania
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3321–3335, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3321-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3321-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Under a NATO project, we installed a monitoring system at the Khoko landslide facing the Enguri artificial reservoir (Greater Caucasus). During 2016–2019, we compare slope deformation with meteorological factors and variations in the water level of the reservoir. Our results indicate that the landslide displacements appear to be controlled by variations in hydraulic load and partially by rainfall.
Jef Deckers, Bernd Rombaut, Koen Van Noten, and Kris Vanneste
Solid Earth, 12, 345–361, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-345-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-345-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows the presence of two structural domains in the western border fault system of the Roer Valley graben. These domains, dominated by NW–SE-striking faults, displayed distinctly different strain distributions during both Late Cretaceous compression and Cenozoic extension. The southern domain is characterized by narrow, localized faulting, while the northern domain is characterized by wide, distributed faulting. The non-colinear WNW–ESE Grote Brogel fault links both domains.
Alba Zappone, Antonio Pio Rinaldi, Melchior Grab, Quinn C. Wenning, Clément Roques, Claudio Madonna, Anne C. Obermann, Stefano M. Bernasconi, Matthias S. Brennwald, Rolf Kipfer, Florian Soom, Paul Cook, Yves Guglielmi, Christophe Nussbaum, Domenico Giardini, Marco Mazzotti, and Stefan Wiemer
Solid Earth, 12, 319–343, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-319-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-319-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The success of the geological storage of carbon dioxide is linked to the availability at depth of a capable reservoir and an impermeable caprock. The sealing capacity of the caprock is a key parameter for long-term CO2 containment. Faults crosscutting the caprock might represent preferential pathways for CO2 to escape. A decameter-scale experiment on injection in a fault, monitored by an integrated network of multiparamerter sensors, sheds light on the mobility of fluids within the fault.
Marco Broccardo, Arnaud Mignan, Francesco Grigoli, Dimitrios Karvounis, Antonio Pio Rinaldi, Laurentiu Danciu, Hannes Hofmann, Claus Milkereit, Torsten Dahm, Günter Zimmermann, Vala Hjörleifsdóttir, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1573–1593, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1573-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1573-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a first-of-its-kind pre-drilling probabilistic induced seismic risk analysis for the Geldinganes (Iceland) deep-hydraulic stimulation. The results of the assessment indicate that the individual risk within a radius of 2 km around the injection point is below the safety limits. However, the analysis is affected by a large variability due to the presence of pre-drilling deep uncertainties. This suggests the need for online risk updating during the stimulation.
Linus Villiger, Valentin Samuel Gischig, Joseph Doetsch, Hannes Krietsch, Nathan Oliver Dutler, Mohammadreza Jalali, Benoît Valley, Paul Antony Selvadurai, Arnaud Mignan, Katrin Plenkers, Domenico Giardini, Florian Amann, and Stefan Wiemer
Solid Earth, 11, 627–655, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-627-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-627-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Hydraulic stimulation summarizes fracture initiation and reactivation due to high-pressure fluid injection. Several borehole intervals covering intact rock and pre-existing fractures were targets for high-pressure fluid injections within a decameter-scale, crystalline rock volume. The observed induced seismicity strongly depends on the target geology. In addition, the severity of the induced seismicity per experiment counter correlates with the observed transmissivity enhancement.
Vincent Godard, Jean-Claude Hippolyte, Edward Cushing, Nicolas Espurt, Jules Fleury, Olivier Bellier, Vincent Ollivier, and the ASTER Team
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 221–243, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-221-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-221-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Slow-slipping faults are often difficult to identify in landscapes. Here we analyzed high-resolution topographic data from the Valensole area at the front of the southwestern French Alps. We measured various properties of hillslopes such as their relief and the shape of hilltops. We observed systematic spatial variations of hillslope morphology indicative of relative changes in erosion rates. These variations are potentially related to slow tectonic deformation across the studied area.
Hannah S. Davies, J. A. Mattias Green, and Joao C. Duarte
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 291–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-291-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-291-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We have confirmed that there is a supertidal cycle associated with the supercontinent cycle. As continents drift due to plate tectonics, oceans also change size, controlling the strength of the tides and causing periods of supertides. In this work, we used a coupled tectonic–tidal model of Earth's future to test four different scenarios that undergo different styles of ocean closure and periods of supertides. This has implications for the Earth system and for other planets with liquid oceans.
Alessandro Tibaldi, Paolo Oppizzi, John Gierke, Thomas Oommen, Nino Tsereteli, and Zurab Gogoladze
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 71–91, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-71-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-71-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In the framework of the NATO Science for Peace and Security Program, we have increased the knowledge on the geohazards affecting the Enguri hydroelectrical plant (Caucasus, Georgia). 2 km from the dam, active deformation (2–5 cm yr−1) affects a slope facing the water reservoir. Our field, seismological and numerical analyses show that the worst scenario is represented by seismic shaking with a local peak ground acceleration capable of generating an unstable rock volume of up to 48 ± 12 × 106 m3.
Ahoura Jafarimanesh, Arnaud Mignan, and Laurentiu Danciu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-167, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-167, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Vito Bacchi, Ekaterina Antoshchenkova, Hervé Jomard, Lise Bardet, Claire-Marie Duluc, Oona Scotti, and Hélène Hebert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-142, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-142, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this paper is to present a new methodology for the analysis of the seismic induced tsunami hazard. The proposed methodology mainly relies on uncertainty quantification techniques and the construction and validation of some
emulators, or
meta-models, used instead of the original models for the construction of a numerical tsunamis database. The methodology was tested with tsunamis generated by the Azores-Gibraltar Fracture Zone and potentially impacting the French Coast.
Florian Amann, Valentin Gischig, Keith Evans, Joseph Doetsch, Reza Jalali, Benoît Valley, Hannes Krietsch, Nathan Dutler, Linus Villiger, Bernard Brixel, Maria Klepikova, Anniina Kittilä, Claudio Madonna, Stefan Wiemer, Martin O. Saar, Simon Loew, Thomas Driesner, Hansruedi Maurer, and Domenico Giardini
Solid Earth, 9, 115–137, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-9-115-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-9-115-2018, 2018
Valentin Samuel Gischig, Joseph Doetsch, Hansruedi Maurer, Hannes Krietsch, Florian Amann, Keith Frederick Evans, Morteza Nejati, Mohammadreza Jalali, Benoît Valley, Anne Christine Obermann, Stefan Wiemer, and Domenico Giardini
Solid Earth, 9, 39–61, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-9-39-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-9-39-2018, 2018
Hervé Jomard, Edward Marc Cushing, Luigi Palumbo, Stéphane Baize, Claire David, and Thomas Chartier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1573–1584, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1573-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1573-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The French Institute of Radioactive Protection and Nuclear Safety, with the support of the Ministry of Environment, compiled a database (BDFA) in order to define and characterize known potentially active faults of metropolitan France. The general structure of BDFA is presented, containing to date a total of 136 faults (581 fault segments). BDFA represents a first step toward the implementation of seismic source models for both deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard calculations.
Thomas Chartier, Oona Scotti, Christophe Clément, Hervé Jomard, and Stéphane Baize
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1585–1593, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1585-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1585-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We perform a fault-based PSHA exercise in the Upper Rhine Graben to quantify the relative influence of fault parameters on the hazard at the Fessenheim nuclear power plant site. Sensitivity tests show that the
uncertainty on the slip rate of the Rhine River fault is the dominant factor controlling the variability of the seismic hazard level, greater than the epistemic uncertainty due to ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs).
Julián García-Mayordomo, Raquel Martín-Banda, Juan M. Insua-Arévalo, José A. Álvarez-Gómez, José J. Martínez-Díaz, and João Cabral
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1447–1459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1447-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1447-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquakes are produced by sudden movements of rock masses along surfaces called faults. Major earthquakes are produced by major faults. It is important to know where these faults are located in a territory. Major faults can be seen in the landscape as they control the morphology of the terrain. In the field geologists determine their last movement and the rate they move at over time. This information is stored in active fault databases and later used for earthquake prevention.
Irene Molinari, John Clinton, Edi Kissling, György Hetényi, Domenico Giardini, Josip Stipčević, Iva Dasović, Marijan Herak, Vesna Šipka, Zoltán Wéber, Zoltán Gráczer, Stefano Solarino, the Swiss-AlpArray Field Team, and the AlpArray Working Group
Adv. Geosci., 43, 15–29, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-43-15-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-43-15-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
AlpArray is a collaborative seismological project in Europe that includes ~ 50 research institutes and seismological observatories. At its heart is the collection of top-quality seismological data from a dense network of stations in the Alpine region: the AlpArray Seismic Network (AASN). We report the Swiss contribution: site selections, installation, data quality and management. We deployed 27 temporary BB stations across 5 countries as result of a fruitful collaboration between 5 institutes.
V. K. Karastathis, E. Mouzakiotis, A. Ganas, and G. A. Papadopoulos
Solid Earth, 6, 173–184, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-6-173-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-6-173-2015, 2015
R. Basili, M. M. Tiberti, V. Kastelic, F. Romano, A. Piatanesi, J. Selva, and S. Lorito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1025–1050, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1025-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1025-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Earthquake Hazards
Dynamic fragility of a slender rock pillar in a carbonate rock mass
Lesser Antilles seismotectonic zoning model for seismic hazard assessment
Consistency between a strain rate model and the ESHM20 earthquake rate forecast in Europe: insights for seismic hazard
A grid-level fixed-asset model developed for China from 1951 to 2020
The impact of active and capable faults structural complexity on seismic hazard assessment for the design of linear infrastructures
An Updated, Homogeneous, and Declustered Earthquake Catalog for South Korea and Neighboring Regions
Towards a harmonized operational earthquake forecasting model for Europe
Insights into tectonic zonation models from the clustering analysis of seismicity in South and South-eastern Spain
Modeling seismic hazard and landslide occurrence probabilities in northwestern Yunnan, China: exploring complex fault systems with multi-segment rupturing in a block rotational tectonic zone
Development of a regional probabilistic seismic hazard model for Central Asia
Computing the time-dependent activity rate using non-declustered and declustered catalogues – a first step towards time-dependent seismic hazard calculations for operational earthquake forecasting
Analysis of borehole strain anomalies before the 2017 Jiuzhaigou Ms 7.0 earthquake based on a graph neural network
Testing the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) against observations from Romania
Sedimentary record of historical seismicity in a small, southern Oregon lake
A 2700-year record of Cascadia megathrust and crustal/slab earthquakes from Acorn Woman Lakes, Oregon
Implementation of an interconnected fault system in PSHA, example on the Levant fault
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Sweden
Correlation between seismic activity and acoustic emission on the basis of in situ monitoring
2021 Alaska earthquake: entropy approach to its precursors and aftershock regimes
Strategies for comparison of modern probabilistic seismic hazard models and insights from the Germany and France border region
An Ensemble Random Forest Model for Seismic Energy Forecast
The Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland, ERM-CH23
Estimating ground motion intensities using simulation-based estimates of local crustal seismic response
Co- and postseismic subaquatic evidence for prehistoric fault activity near Coyhaique, Aysén Region, Chile
Forearc crustal faults as tsunami sources in the upper plate of the Lesser Antilles subduction zone: the case study of the Morne Piton fault system
The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model: overview and results
Risk-informed representative earthquake scenarios for Valparaíso and Viña del Mar, Chile
Harmonizing seismicity information in Central Asian countries: earthquake catalogue and active faults
Comparing components for seismic risk modelling using data from the 2019 Le Teil (France) earthquake
Conversion relationships between Modified Mercalli Intensity and Peak Ground Acceleration for historical shallow crustal earthquakes in Mexico
Modelling seismic ground motion and its uncertainty in different tectonic contexts: challenges and application to the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20)
Scoring and ranking probabilistic seismic hazard models: an application based on macroseismic intensity data
A dense micro-electromechanical system (MEMS)-based seismic network in populated areas: rapid estimation of exposure maps in Trentino (NE Italy)
Exploring inferred geomorphological sediment thickness as a new site proxy to predict ground-shaking amplification at regional scale: application to Europe and eastern Türkiye
Surface rupture kinematics of the 2020 Mw 6.6 Masbate (Philippines) earthquake determined from optical and radar data
The influence of aftershocks on seismic hazard analysis: a case study from Xichang and the surrounding areas
Characteristics and mechanisms of near-surface negative atmospheric electric field anomalies preceding the 5 September 2022, Ms 6.8 Luding earthquake in China
Seismogenic depth and seismic coupling estimation in the transition zone between Alps, Dinarides and Pannonian Basin for the new Slovenian seismic hazard model
Towards a dynamic earthquake risk framework for Switzerland
Understanding flow characteristics from tsunami deposits at Odaka, Joban Coast, using a deep neural network (DNN) inverse model
Spring water anomalies before two consecutive earthquakes (Mw 7.7 and Mw 7.6) in Kahramanmaraş (Türkiye) on 6 February 2023
The quest for reference stations at the National Observatory of Athens, Greece
Update on the seismogenic potential of the Upper Rhine Graben southern region
Earthquake forecasting model for Albania: the area source model and the smoothing model
The footprint of a historical paleoearthquake: the sixth-century-CE event in the European western Southern Alps
Seismic background noise levels in the Italian strong-motion network
Testing machine learning models for heuristic building damage assessment applied to the Italian Database of Observed Damage (DaDO)
The seismic hazard from the Lembang Fault, Indonesia, derived from InSAR and GNSS data
Rapid estimation of seismic intensities by analyzing early aftershock sequences using the robust locally weighted regression program (LOWESS)
Towards improving the spatial testability of aftershock forecast models
Alaa Jbara and Michael Tsesarsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2197–2213, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2197-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2197-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Fragile geologic features test long-term seismic hazard models. We modeled a free-standing 42 m high rock pillar in Israel’s Negev Desert using a validated finite-element model based on aerial lidar, in situ rock data, and measured vibrations. Dynamic analysis shows an M 7 quake on the Dead Sea Transform (45 km) will not break it, but an M 6 quake on the Sinai–Negev Shear Zone (6–20 km) probably will. With a fragility age of 11.4 kyr, the pillar challenges the SNSZ’s (Sinai–Negev Shear Zone) ability to produce M 6 events.
Océane Foix, Stéphane Mazzotti, Hervé Jomard, Didier Bertil, and the Lesser Antilles Working Group
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1881–1900, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1881-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1881-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
By analyzing historical and instrumental seismic data, fault knowledge, and geodetic measurements, we provide a new understanding of seismic hazard in the Lesser Antilles via seismotectonic zoning. We propose new models that can have a significant impact on seismic hazard assessment, such as the inclusion of mantle wedge seismicity, the inclusion of volcanic seismicity, and a complete revision of the subduction interface zoning.
Bénédicte Donniol Jouve, Anne Socquet, Céline Beauval, Jesus Piña Valdès, and Laurentiu Danciu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1789–1809, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1789-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1789-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate how geodetic monitoring enhances accuracy in seismic hazard assessment. By utilizing geodetic strain rate maps for Europe and the European Seismic Hazard Model 2020 source model, we compare geodetic and seismic moment rates across the continent while addressing associated uncertainties. Our analysis reveals primary compatibility in high-activity zones. In well-constrained regions of lower activity, we also observed an overlap in the distribution of seismic and geodetic moments.
Danhua Xin, James Edward Daniell, Zhenguo Zhang, Friedemann Wenzel, Shaun Shuxun Wang, and Xiaofei Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1597–1620, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1597-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1597-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A high-resolution fixed-asset model can help improve the accuracy of earthquake loss assessment. We develop a grid-level fixed-asset model for China from 1951 to 2020. We first compile the provincial-level fixed asset from yearbook-related statistics. Then, this dataset is disaggregated into 1 km × 1 km grids by using multiple remote sensing data as the weight indicator. We find that the fixed-asset value increased rapidly after the 1980s and reached CNY 589.31 trillion in 2020.
Selina Bonini, Riccardo Asti, Giulio Viola, Giulia Tartaglia, Stefano Rodani, Gianluca Benedetti, Massimo Comedini, and Gianluca Vignaroli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-506, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-506, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Considering the structural complexity related to the internal architecture of active and capable faults, seismic hazard may be linked to different fault attributes depending on the fault domain crossed by a linear infrastructure. We propose a structural geology-based approach for the preliminary study of the area potentially affected by earthquake-induced surface ruptures during infrastructural design, based on the geometric relationships between the active fault and the infrastructure itself.
Soumya Kanti Maiti and Byungmin Kim
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-197, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
A unified earthquake catalog for South Korea and its surroundings was developed, containing 63,298 events. Four declustering methods including Gardner-Knopoff, Reasenberg, Uhrhammer, and Marsan were compared to identify the mainshocks. The catalog offers a reliable database for seismic hazard assessments and seismotectonic studies. It fills gaps in previous studies, providing up-to-date catalog for accurate seismic risk assessment and future earthquake forecasting in the region.
Marta Han, Leila Mizrahi, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 991–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-991-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-991-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Relying on recent accomplishments of collecting and harmonizing data by the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) and leveraging advancements in state-of-the-art earthquake forecasting methods, we develop a harmonized earthquake forecasting model for Europe. We propose several model variants and test them on training data for consistency and on a 7-year testing period against each other, as well as against both a time-independent benchmark and a global time-dependent benchmark.
David Montiel-López, Antonella Peresan, Elisa Varini, and Sergio Molina
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-556, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-556, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
South and southeastern Spain has the highest seismicity in the country, but inconsistent fault data limits its use in seismic hazard assessment. This study applies the Nearest-Neighbor algorithm and graph theory to analyse clustering patterns. Two regions (western and eastern) with higher and lower (respectively) clustering complexities are identified. The results suggest alternative seismic zonation models, which could improve seismic hazard assessment.
Jia Cheng, Chong Xu, Xiwei Xu, Shimin Zhang, and Pengyu Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 857–877, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-857-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-857-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The northwestern Yunnan region (NWYR), with a complex network of active faults, presents significant seismic hazards such as multi-segment ruptures and landslides. This article introduces a new seismic hazard model which integrates fault slip parameters to assess the risks associated with multi-segment ruptures. The results reveal the intricate relationship between these ruptures and the regional small block rotation induced by regional low-crustal flow and gravitational collapse.
Valerio Poggi, Stefano Parolai, Natalya Silacheva, Anatoly Ischuk, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, Zainalobudin Kobuliev, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Roman Ibragimov, Japar Karaev, Paola Ceresa, Marco Santulin, and Paolo Bazzurro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 817–842, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-817-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-817-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A regionally consistent probabilistic risk assessment for multiple hazards and assets was developed under the Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia (SFRARR) programme, supported by the European Union, the World Bank, and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery. This paper outlines the preparation of the source model and presents key results of the probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis for the Central Asian countries.
David Montiel-López, Sergio Molina, Juan José Galiana-Merino, Igor Gómez, Alireza Kharazian, Juan Luis Soler-Llorens, José Antonio Huesca-Tortosa, Arianna Guardiola-Villora, and Gonzalo Ortuño-Sáez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 515–539, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-515-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-515-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We presents a comparison between different methods of computing the seismic activity rate in the time-dependent annual probability of exceedance (TD-APE) for a given earthquake in two areas: Italy (high seismicity) and Spain (moderate seismicity). Important changes in the TD-APE are seen in Italy before the L'Aquila earthquake, which can be related to foreshocks. In the case of Spain subtle changes are seen before some earthquakes. This approach could enable operational earthquake forecasting.
Chenyang Li, Changfeng Qin, Jie Zhang, Yu Duan, and Chengquan Chi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 231–245, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-231-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-231-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we advance the field of earthquake prediction by introducing a pre-seismic anomaly extraction method based on the structure of a graph WaveNet model, which reveals the temporal correlation and spatial correlation of the strain observation data from different boreholes prior to the occurrence of an earthquake event.
Elena F. Manea, Laurentiu Danciu, Carmen O. Cioflan, Dragos Toma-Danila, and Matthew C. Gerstenberger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We test and evaluate the results of the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) against observations spanning a few centuries at 12 cities in Romania. The full distributions of the hazard curves at the given locations were considered, and the testing was performed for two relevant peak ground acceleration (PGA) values. Our analysis suggests that the observed exceedance rates for the selected PGA levels are consistent with ESHM20 estimates.
Ann E. Morey, Mark D. Shapley, Daniel G. Gavin, Alan R. Nelson, and Chris Goldfinger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4523–4561, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4523-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4523-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Disturbance events from historical sediments from a small lake in Oregon were evaluated to determine if Cascadia megathrust earthquakes are uniquely identifiable. Geochemical provenance data identify two likely Cascadia earthquakes, one from 1700 CE and the other from 1873 CE. A crustal earthquake deposit and flood deposits were also uniquely identified, suggesting that small Cascadia lakes are good recorders of megathrust earthquakes and other disturbances.
Ann E. Morey and Chris Goldfinger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4563–4584, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4563-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4563-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses the characteristics from a deposit attributed to the 1700 CE Cascadia earthquake to identify other subduction-earthquake deposits in sediments from two lakes located near the California–Oregon border. Seven deposits were identified in these records, and an age–depth model suggests that these correlate in time to the largest Cascadia earthquakes preserved in the offshore record, suggesting that inland lakes can be good recorders of Cascadia earthquakes.
Sarah El Kadri, Celine Beauval, Marlene Brax, and Yann Klinger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-184, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-184, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic hazard evaluation is required for establishing earthquake-resistant building codes. Our aim is to improve the quantification of seismic hazard in the Levant by including our knowledge on how faults may be interconnected. We build an earthquake forecast by redistributing the energy stored in the fault system over all possible earthquake ruptures. This interconnected fault model leads to seismic hazard maps where hazard is as high on secondary fault branches as on main branches.
Niranjan Joshi, Björn Lund, and Roland Roberts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4199–4223, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4199-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4199-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Few large earthquakes and low occurrence rates make seismic hazard assessment of Sweden a challenging task. Recent expansion of the seismic network has improved the quality and quantity of the data recorded. We use these new data to estimate the Swedish seismic hazard using probabilistic methods to find that hazard was previously underestimated in the north. The north has the highest hazard in Sweden, with estimated mean peak ground acceleration of up to 0.06 g for a 475-year return period.
Zhiwen Zhu, Zihan Jiang, Federico Accornero, and Alberto Carpinteri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4133–4143, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Since April 2023, an in situ experiment in a granite tunnel in Southeast China has been revealing strong correlations between acoustic emission signals and seismic activity. Acoustic emission bursts precede seismic events by approximately 17 h, with a notable decline in the b value and natural-time variance κ1. This research provides new evidence that acoustic emission can serve as an effective earthquake precursor.
Eugenio E. Vogel, Denisse Pastén, Gonzalo Saravia, Michel Aguilera, and Antonio Posadas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3895–3906, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3895-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time, an entropy analysis has been performed in Alaska, a seismic-rich region located in a subduction zone that shows non-trivial behavior: the subduction arc changes seismic activity from the eastern zone to the western zone, showing a decrease in this activity along the subduction zone. This study shows how an entropy approach can help us understand seismicity in subduction zones.
Graeme Weatherill, Fabrice Cotton, Guillaume Daniel, Irmela Zentner, Pablo Iturrieta, and Christian Bosse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3755–3787, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3755-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3755-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
New generations of seismic hazard models are developed with sophisticated approaches to quantify uncertainties in our knowledge of earthquake processes. To understand why and how recent state-of-the-art seismic hazard models for France, Germany, and Europe differ despite similar underlying assumptions, we present a systematic approach to investigate model-to-model differences and to quantify and visualise them while accounting for their respective uncertainties.
Sukh Sagar Shukla, Jaya Dhanya, Praveen Kumar, Priyanka, and Varun Dutt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-129, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-129, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquakes are among the most disastrous natural calamities due to the release of accumulated strain energy from continuous tectonic movements. It has potential of causing havoc both in terms of economic losses and loss of life. This paper presents a methodology to predict the earthquake in terms of seismic energy release for global region using ensembled machine learning technique and then same approach is tested for one of the most seismic active region of the world i.e., Western Himalayas.
Athanasios N. Papadopoulos, Philippe Roth, Laurentiu Danciu, Paolo Bergamo, Francesco Panzera, Donat Fäh, Carlo Cauzzi, Blaise Duvernay, Alireza Khodaverdian, Pierino Lestuzzi, Ömer Odabaşi, Ettore Fagà, Paolo Bazzurro, Michèle Marti, Nadja Valenzuela, Irina Dallo, Nicolas Schmid, Philip Kästli, Florian Haslinger, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3561–3578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3561-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3561-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland (ERM-CH23), released in early 2023, is the culmination of a multidisciplinary effort aiming to achieve, for the first time, a comprehensive assessment of the potential consequences of earthquakes on the Swiss building stock and population. ERM-CH23 provides risk estimates for various impact metrics, ranging from economic loss as a result of damage to buildings and their contents to human losses, such as deaths, injuries, and displaced population.
Himanshu Agrawal and John McCloskey
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3519–3536, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3519-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3519-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Rapidly expanding cities in earthquake-prone regions of the Global South often lack seismic event records, hindering accurate ground motion predictions for hazard assessment. Our study demonstrates that, despite these limitations, reliable predictions can be made using simulation-based methods for small (sub)urban units undergoing rapid development. High-resolution local geological data can reveal spatial variability in ground motions, aiding effective risk mitigation.
Morgan Vervoort, Katleen Wils, Kris Vanneste, Roberto Urrutia, Mario Pino, Catherine Kissel, Marc De Batist, and Maarten Van Daele
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3401–3421, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3401-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study identifies a prehistoric earthquake around 4400 years ago near the city of Coyhaique (Aysén Region, Chilean Patagonia) and illustrates the potential seismic hazard in the region. We found deposits in lakes and a fjord that can be related to subaquatic and onshore landslides, all with a similar age, indicating that they were most likely caused by an earthquake. Through modeling we found that this was an earthquake of magnitude 6.3 to 7.0 on a fault near the city of Coyhaique.
Melody Philippon, Jean Roger, Jean-Frédéric Lebrun, Isabelle Thinon, Océane Foix, Stéphane Mazzotti, Marc-André Gutscher, Leny Montheil, and Jean-Jacques Cornée
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3129–3154, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3129-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3129-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using novel geophysical datasets, we reassess the slip rate of the Morne Piton fault (Lesser Antilles) at 0.2 mm yr−1 by dividing by four previous estimations and thus increasing the earthquake time recurrence and lowering the associated hazard. We evaluate a plausible magnitude for a potential seismic event of Mw 6.5 ± 0.5. Our multi-segment tsunami model representative of the worst-case scenario gives an overview of tsunami generation if all the fault segments ruptured together.
Laurentiu Danciu, Domenico Giardini, Graeme Weatherill, Roberto Basili, Shyam Nandan, Andrea Rovida, Céline Beauval, Pierre-Yves Bard, Marco Pagani, Celso G. Reyes, Karin Sesetyan, Susana Vilanova, Fabrice Cotton, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3049–3073, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3049-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) is the latest seismic hazard assessment update for the Euro-Mediterranean region. This state-of-the-art model delivers a broad range of hazard results, including hazard curves, maps, and uniform hazard spectra. ESHM20 provides two hazard maps as informative references in the next update of the European Seismic Design Code (CEN EC8), and it also provides a key input to the first earthquake risk model for Europe.
Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Mauricio Monsalve, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Elisa Ferrario, Alan Poulos, Juan Carlos de la Llera, and Daniel Straub
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2667–2687, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2667-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2667-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic risk management uses reference earthquake scenarios, but the criteria for selecting them do not always consider consequences for exposed assets. Hence, we adopt a definition of representative scenarios associated with a return period and loss level to select such scenarios among a large set of possible earthquakes. We identify the scenarios for the residential-building stock and power supply in Valparaíso and Viña del Mar, Chile. The selected scenarios depend on the exposed assets.
Valerio Poggi, Stefano Parolai, Natalya Silacheva, Anatoly Ischuk, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, Zainalobudin Kobuliev, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Roman Ibragimov, Japar Karaev, Paola Ceresa, and Paolo Bazzurro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2597–2613, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2597-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
As part of the Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia (SFRARR) programme, funded by the European Union in collaboration with the World Bank and GFDRR, a regionally consistent probabilistic multi-hazard and multi-asset risk assessment has been developed. This paper describes the preparation of the input datasets (earthquake catalogue and active-fault database) required for the implementation of the probabilistic seismic hazard model.
Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, Pierre Gehl, Caterina Negulescu, Helen Crowley, and Laurentiu Danciu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2383–2401, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2383-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The models used to estimate the probability of exceeding a level of earthquake damage are essential to the reduction of disasters. These models consist of components that may be tested individually; however testing these types of models as a whole is challenging. Here, we use observations of damage caused by the 2019 Le Teil earthquake and estimations from other models to test components of seismic risk models.
Quetzalcoatl Rodríguez-Pérez and F. Ramón Zúñiga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-92, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-92, 2024
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic intensity reflects earthquake damage, although this parameter is often subjective. On the other hand, peak acceleration values are a direct measure of earthquake effects. Seismic intensity was used to describe historical earthquakes, and its use is rare today. For this reason, it is important to have a relationship between these parameters of strong movements in order to predict the acceleration of historical earthquakes.
Graeme Weatherill, Sreeram Reddy Kotha, Laurentiu Danciu, Susana Vilanova, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1795–1834, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1795-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1795-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ground motion models (GMMs) selected for the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) and their uncertainties require adaptation to different tectonic environments. Using insights from new data, local experts and developments in the scientific literature, we further calibrate the ESHM20 GMM logic tree to capture previously unmodelled regional variation. We also propose a new scaled-backbone logic tree for application to Europe's subduction zones and the Vrancea deep seismic source.
Vera D'Amico, Francesco Visini, Andrea Rovida, Warner Marzocchi, and Carlo Meletti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1401–1413, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1401-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a scoring strategy to rank multiple models/branches of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) model that could be useful to consider specific requests from stakeholders responsible for seismic risk reduction actions. In fact, applications of PSHA often require sampling a few hazard curves from the model. The procedure is introduced through an application aimed to score and rank the branches of a recent Italian PSHA model according to their fit with macroseismic intensity data.
Davide Scafidi, Alfio Viganò, Jacopo Boaga, Valeria Cascone, Simone Barani, Daniele Spallarossa, Gabriele Ferretti, Mauro Carli, and Giancarlo De Marchi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1249–1260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1249-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper concerns the use of a dense network of low-cost seismic accelerometers in populated areas to achieve rapid and reliable estimation of exposure maps in Trentino (northeast Italy). These additional data, in conjunction with the automatic monitoring procedure, allow us to obtain dense measurements which only rely on actual recorded data, avoiding the use of ground motion prediction equations. This leads to a more reliable picture of the actual ground shaking.
Karina Loviknes, Fabrice Cotton, and Graeme Weatherill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1223–1247, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquake ground shaking can be strongly affected by local geology and is often amplified by soft sediments. In this study, we introduce a global geomorphological model for sediment thickness as a protentional parameter for predicting this site amplification. The results show that including geology and geomorphology in site-amplification predictions adds important value and that global or regional models for sediment thickness from fields beyond engineering seismology are worth considering.
Khelly Shan Sta. Rita, Sotiris Valkaniotis, and Alfredo Mahar Francisco Lagmay
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1135–1161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1135-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1135-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ground movement and rupture produced by the 2020 Masbate earthquake in the Philippines were studied using satellite data. We highlight the importance of the complementary use of optical and radar datasets. The slip measurements and field observations helped improve our understanding of the seismotectonics of the region, which is critical for seismic hazard studies.
Qing Wu, Guijuan Lai, Jian Wu, and Jinmeng Bi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1017–1033, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1017-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1017-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Aftershocks are typically ignored for traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, which underestimate the seismic hazard to some extent and may cause potential risks. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis based on the Monte Carlo method was combined with the Omi–Reasenberg–Jones model to systematically study how aftershocks impact seismic hazard analyses. The influence of aftershocks on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis can exceed 50 %.
Lixin Wu, Xiao Wang, Yuan Qi, Jingchen Lu, and Wenfei Mao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 773–789, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-773-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric electric field (AEF) is the bridge connecting the surface charges and atmospheric particle changes before an earthquake, which is essential for the study of the coupling process between the coversphere and atmosphere caused by earthquakes. This study discovers AEF anomalies before the Luding earthquake in 2022 and clarifies the relationship between the surface changes and atmosphere changes possibly caused by the earthquake.
Polona Zupančič, Barbara Šket Motnikar, Michele M. C. Carafa, Petra Jamšek Rupnik, Mladen Živčić, Vanja Kastelic, Gregor Rajh, Martina Čarman, Jure Atanackov, and Andrej Gosar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 651–672, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-651-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-651-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We considered two parameters that affect seismic hazard assessment in Slovenia. The first parameter we determined is the thickness of the lithosphere's section where earthquakes are generated. The second parameter is the activity of each fault, which is expressed by its average displacement per year (slip rate). Since the slip rate can be either seismic or aseismic, we estimated both components. This analysis was based on geological and seismological data and was validated through comparisons.
Maren Böse, Laurentiu Danciu, Athanasios Papadopoulos, John Clinton, Carlo Cauzzi, Irina Dallo, Leila Mizrahi, Tobias Diehl, Paolo Bergamo, Yves Reuland, Andreas Fichtner, Philippe Roth, Florian Haslinger, Frédérick Massin, Nadja Valenzuela, Nikola Blagojević, Lukas Bodenmann, Eleni Chatzi, Donat Fäh, Franziska Glueer, Marta Han, Lukas Heiniger, Paulina Janusz, Dario Jozinović, Philipp Kästli, Federica Lanza, Timothy Lee, Panagiotis Martakis, Michèle Marti, Men-Andrin Meier, Banu Mena Cabrera, Maria Mesimeri, Anne Obermann, Pilar Sanchez-Pastor, Luca Scarabello, Nicolas Schmid, Anastasiia Shynkarenko, Bozidar Stojadinović, Domenico Giardini, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 583–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-583-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic hazard and risk are time dependent as seismicity is clustered and exposure can change rapidly. We are developing an interdisciplinary dynamic earthquake risk framework for advancing earthquake risk mitigation in Switzerland. This includes various earthquake risk products and services, such as operational earthquake forecasting and early warning. Standardisation and harmonisation into seamless solutions that access the same databases, workflows, and software are a crucial component.
Rimali Mitra, Hajime Naruse, and Tomoya Abe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 429–444, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-429-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study estimates the behavior of the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami from its deposit distributed in the Joban coastal area. In this study, the flow characteristics of the tsunami were reconstructed using the DNN (deep neural network) inverse model, suggesting that the tsunami inundation occurred in the very high-velocity condition.
Sedat İnan, Hasan Çetin, and Nurettin Yakupoğlu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 397–409, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-397-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-397-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Two devastating earthquakes, Mw 7.7 and Mw 7.6, occurred in Türkiye on 6 February 2023. We obtained commercially bottled waters from two springs, 100 km from the epicenter of Mw 7.7. Samples of the first spring emanating from fault zone in hard rocks showed positive anomalies in major ions lasting for 6 months before the earthquake. Samples from the second spring accumulated in an alluvium deposit showed no anomalies. We show that pre-earthquake anomalies are geologically site-dependent.
Olga-Joan Ktenidou, Antonia Papageorgiou, Erion-Vasilis Pikoulis, Spyros Liakopoulos, Fevronia Gkika, Ziya Cekinmez, Panagiotis Savvaidis, Kalliopi Fragouli, and Christos P. Evangelidis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-233, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-233, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Greek seismic data are valuable in European and even global databases, due to its high seismicity and numerous seismic stations. Seismic data coming from stations that lie on rock (i.e., not soil) sits are particularly valuable in seismology to define reference ground conditions and ground motions. However, little knowledge exists yet on how rock stations in Greece behave. This is the first time the network of the National Observatory is studied systematically to reveal reference stations.
Sylvain Michel, Clara Duverger, Laurent Bollinger, Jorge Jara, and Romain Jolivet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 163–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-163-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Upper Rhine Graben, located in France and Germany, is bordered by north–south-trending faults, posing a potential threat to dense population and infrastructures on the Alsace plain. We build upon previous seismic hazard studies of the graben by exploring uncertainties in greater detail, revisiting a number of assumptions. There is a 99 % probability that a maximum-magnitude earthquake would be below 7.3 if assuming a purely dip-slip mechanism or below 7.6 if assuming a strike-slip one.
Edlira Xhafaj, Chung-Han Chan, and Kuo-Fong Ma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 109–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-109-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-109-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study introduces new earthquake forecasting models for Albania, aiming to map out future seismic hazards. By analysing earthquakes from 1960 to 2006, we have developed models that predict where activity is most likely to occur, highlighting the western coast and southern regions as high-hazard zones. Our validation process confirms these models are effective tools for anticipating seismic events, offering valuable insights for earthquake preparedness and hazard assessment efforts.
Franz Livio, Maria Francesca Ferrario, Elisa Martinelli, Sahra Talamo, Silvia Cercatillo, and Alessandro Maria Michetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3407–3424, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3407-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3407-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here we document the occurrence of an historical earthquake that occurred in the European western Southern Alps in the sixth century CE. Analysis of the effects due to earthquake shaking in the city of Como (N Italy) and a comparison with dated offshore landslides in the Alpine lakes allowed us to make an inference about the possible magnitude and the location of the seismic source for this event.
Simone Francesco Fornasari, Deniz Ertuncay, and Giovanni Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3219–3234, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3219-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3219-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed the background seismic noise for the Italian strong motion network by developing the Italian accelerometric low- and high-noise models. Spatial and temporal variations of the noise levels have been analysed. Several stations located near urban areas are affected by human activities, with high noise levels in the low periods. Our results provide an overview of the background noise of the strong motion network and can be used as a station selection criterion for future research.
Subash Ghimire, Philippe Guéguen, Adrien Pothon, and Danijel Schorlemmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3199–3218, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3199-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3199-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the efficacy of several machine learning models for damage characterization, trained and tested on the Database of Observed Damage (DaDO) for Italian earthquakes. Reasonable damage prediction effectiveness (68 % accuracy) is observed, particularly when considering basic structural features and grouping the damage according to the traffic-light-based system used during the post-disaster period (green, yellow, and red), showing higher relevancy for rapid damage prediction.
Ekbal Hussain, Endra Gunawan, Nuraini Rahma Hanifa, and Qori'atu Zahro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3185–3197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3185-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3185-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The earthquake potential of the Lembang Fault, located near the city of Bandung in West Java, Indonesia, is poorly understood. Bandung has a population of over 8 million people. We used satellite data to estimate the energy storage on the fault and calculate the likely size of potential future earthquakes. We use simulations to show that 1.9–2.7 million people would be exposed to high levels of ground shaking in the event of a major earthquake on the fault.
Huaiqun Zhao, Wenkai Chen, Can Zhang, and Dengjie Kang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3031–3050, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3031-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3031-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Early emergency response requires improving the utilization value of the data available in the early post-earthquake period. We proposed a method for assessing seismic intensities by analyzing early aftershock sequences using the robust locally weighted regression program. The seismic intensity map evaluated by the method can reflect the range of the hardest-hit areas and the spatial distribution of the possible property damage and casualties caused by the earthquake.
Asim M. Khawaja, Behnam Maleki Asayesh, Sebastian Hainzl, and Danijel Schorlemmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2683–2696, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2683-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Testing of earthquake forecasts is important for model verification. Forecasts are usually spatially discretized with many equal-sized grid cells, but often few earthquakes are available for evaluation, leading to meaningless tests. Here, we propose solutions to improve the testability of earthquake forecasts and give a minimum ratio between the number of earthquakes and spatial cells for significant tests. We show applications of the proposed technique for synthetic and real case studies.
Cited articles
Aki, K. and Richards, P. G.: Quantitative seismology: Theory and methods, W. H. Freeman & Co, San Francisco, 557 pp., ISBN 978-0-7167-1059-2, ISBN 978-0-7167-1058-5, 1980.
Akoglu, A. M., Cakir, Z., Meghraoui, M., Belabbes, S., El Alami, S. O., Ergintav, S., and Akyüz, H. S.: The 1994–2004 Al Hoceima (Morocco) earthquake sequence: Conjugate fault ruptures deduced from InSAR, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 252, 467–480, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2006.10.010, 2006.
Allen, T. I. and Hayes, G. P.: Alternative Rupture-Scaling Relationships for Subduction Interface and Other Offshore Environments, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 107, 1240–1253, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120160255, 2017.
Amante, C. and Eakins, B. W.: ETOPO1 1 Arc-Minute Global Relief Model: Procedures, Data Sources and Analysis, NOAA, https://doi.org/10.7289/V5C8276M, 2009.
Árnadóttir, T., Geirsson, H., and Jiang, W.: Crustal deformation in Iceland: Plate spreading and earthquake deformation, Jökull, 58, 59–74, 2008.
Arroucau, P., Custódio, S., Civiero, C., Silveira, G., Dias, N., Díaz, J., Villaseñor, A., and Bodin, T.: PRISM3D: a 3-D reference seismic model for Iberia and adjacent areas, Geophys. J. Int., 225, 789–810, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggab005, 2021.
Atanackov, J., Jamšek Rupnik, P., Jež, J., Celarc, B., Novak, M., Milanič, B., Markelj, A., Bavec, M., and Kastelic, V.: Database of Active Faults in Slovenia: Compiling a New Active Fault Database at the Junction Between the Alps, the Dinarides and the Pannonian Basin Tectonic Domains, Front. Earth Sci., 9, 604388, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.604388, 2021.
Atanackov, J., Jamšek Rupnik, P., Zupančič, P., Šket Motnikar, B., Živčić, M., Čarman, M., Milanič, B., Kastelic, V., Rajh, G., and Gosar, A.: Seismogenic fault and area sources for probabilistic seismic hazard model in Slovenia, PANGAEA [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.940100, 2022.
Bailo, D., Paciello, R., Michalek, J., Cocco, M., Freda, C., Jeffery, K., and Atakan, K.: The EPOS multi-disciplinary Data Portal for integrated access to solid Earth science datasets, Sci. Data, 10, 784, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02697-9, 2023.
Basili, R., Valensise, G., Vannoli, P., Burrato, P., Fracassi, U., Mariano, S., Tiberti, M. M., and Boschi, E.: The Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS), version 3: Summarizing 20 years of research on Italy's earthquake geology, Tectonophysics, 453, 20–43, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2007.04.014, 2008.
Basili, R., Kastelic, V., Demircioglu, M. B., Garcia Moreno, D., Nemser, E. S., Petricca, P., Sboras, S. P., Besana-Ostman, G. M., Cabral, J., Camelbeeck, T., Caputo, R., Danciu, L., Domac, H., Fonseca, J. F. de B. D., García-Mayordomo, J., Giardini, D., Glavatovic, B., Gulen, L., Ince, Y., Pavlides, S., Sesetyan, K., Tarabusi, G., Tiberti, M. M., Utkucu, M., Valensise, G., Vanneste, K., Vilanova, S. P., and Wössner, J.: The European Database of Seismogenic Faults (EDSF) compiled in the framework of the Project SHARE, INGV – Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia [data set], https://doi.org/10.6092/INGV.IT-SHARE-EDSF, 2013.
Basili, R., Brizuela, B., Herrero, A., Iqbal, S., Lorito, S., Maesano, F. E., Murphy, S., Perfetti, P., Romano, F., Scala, A., Selva, J., Taroni, M., Tiberti, M. M., Thio, H. K., Tonini, R., Volpe, M., Glimsdal, S., Harbitz, C. B., Løvholt, F., Baptista, M. A., Carrilho, F., Matias, L. M., Omira, R., Babeyko, A., Hoechner, A., Gürbüz, M., Pekcan, O., Yalçıner, A., Canals, M., Lastras, G., Agalos, A., Papadopoulos, G., Triantafyllou, I., Benchekroun, S., Agrebi Jaouadi, H., Ben Abdallah, S., Bouallegue, A., Hamdi, H., Oueslati, F., Amato, A., Armigliato, A., Behrens, J., Davies, G., Di Bucci, D., Dolce, M., Geist, E., Gonzalez Vida, J. M., González, M., Macías Sánchez, J., Meletti, C., Ozer Sozdinler, C., Pagani, M., Parsons, T., Polet, J., Power, W., Sørensen, M., and Zaytsev, A.: The Making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18), Front. Earth Sci., 8, 616594, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.616594, 2021.
Basili, R., Danciu, L., Beauval, C., Sesetyan, K., Vilanova, S. P., Adamia, S., Arroucau, P., Atanackov, J., Baize, S., Canora, C., Caputo, R., Carafa, M. M. C., Cushing, M. E., Custódio, S., Demircioglu Tumsa, M. B., Duarte, J. C., Ganas, A., García-Mayordomo, J., Gómez de la Peña, L., Gràcia, E., Jamšek Rupnik, P., Jomard, H., Kastelic, V., Maesano, F. E., Martín-Banda, R., Martínez-Loriente, S., Neres, M., Perea, H., Sket-Motnikar, B., Tiberti, M. M., Tsereteli, N., Tsironi, V., Vallone, R., Vanneste, K., and Zupančič, P.: European Fault-Source Model 2020 (EFSM20): online data on fault geometry and activity parameters, Seismofaults.eu [data set], https://doi.org/10.13127/EFSM20, 2022.
Bayat, F., Kowsari, M., and Halldorsson, B.: A new 3-D finite-fault model of the Southwest Iceland bookshelf transform zone, Geophys. J. Int., 231, 1618–1633, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggac272, 2022.
Becker, D. and Meier, T.: Seismic Slip Deficit in the Southwestern Forearc of the Hellenic Subduction Zone, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 100, 325–342, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120090156, 2010.
Bell, R. E., McNeill, L. C., Bull, J. M., Henstock, T. J., Collier, R. E. L., and Leeder, M. R.: Fault architecture, basin structure and evolution of the Gulf of Corinth Rift, central Greece, Basin Res., 21, 824–855, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2117.2009.00401.x, 2009.
Bergerat, F., Angelier, J., and Villemin, T.: Fault systems and stress patterns on emerged oceanic ridges: a case study in Iceland, Tectonophysics, 179, 183–197, https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(90)90290-O, 1990.
Bilek, S. L. and Lay, T.: Rigidity variations with depth along interplate megathrust faults in subduction zones, Nature, 400, 443–446, https://doi.org/10.1038/22739, 1999.
Bird, P.: An updated digital model of plate boundaries, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 4, 1027, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GC000252, 2003.
Borque, M. J., Sánchez-Alzola, A., Martin-Rojas, I., Alfaro, P., Molina, S., Rosa-Cintas, S., Rodríguez-Caderot, G., Lacy, C., García-Armenteros, J. A., Avilés, M., Herrera-Olmo, A., García-Tortosa, F. J., Estévez, A., and Gil, A. J.: How Much Nubia-Eurasia Convergence Is Accommodated by the NE End of the Eastern Betic Shear Zone (SE Spain)? Constraints From GPS Velocities, Tectonics, 38, 1824–1839, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018TC004970, 2019.
Briole, P., Ganas, A., Elias, P., and Dimitrov, D.: The GPS velocity field of the Aegean. New observations, contribution of the earthquakes, crustal blocks model, Geophys. J. Int., 226, 468–492, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggab089, 2021.
Calais, E., Camelbeeck, T., Stein, S., Liu, M., and Craig, T. J.: A new paradigm for large earthquakes in stable continental plate interiors, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 10621–10637, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070815, 2016.
Canora, C., Vilanova, S. P., Besana-Ostman, G. M., Carvalho, J., Heleno, S., and Fonseca, J.: The Eastern Lower Tagus Valley Fault Zone in central Portugal: Active faulting in a low-deformation region within a major river environment, Tectonophysics, 660, 117–131, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2015.08.026, 2015.
Caputo, R. and Pavlides, S.: Greek Database of Seismogenic Sources (GreDaSS): A compilation of potential seismogenic sources (Mw>5.5) in the Aegean Region, GreDaSS [data set], https://doi.org/10.15160/UNIFE/GREDASS/0200, 2013.
Carafa, M. M. C., Kastelic, V., Bird, P., Maesano, F. E., and Valensise, G.: A “Geodetic Gap” in the Calabrian Arc: Evidence for a Locked Subduction Megathrust?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 1794–1804, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl076554, 2018.
Civiero, C., Strak, V., Custódio, S., Silveira, G., Rawlinson, N., Arroucau, P., and Corela, C.: A common deep source for upper-mantle upwellings below the Ibero-western Maghreb region from teleseismic P-wave travel-time tomography, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 499, 157–172, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2018.07.024, 2018.
Danciu, L., Şeşetyan, K., Demircioglu, M., Gülen, L., Zare, M., Basili, R., Elias, A., Adamia, S., Tsereteli, N., Yalçın, H., Utkucu, M., Khan, M. A., Sayab, M., Hessami, K., Rovida, A. N., Stucchi, M., Burg, J.-P., Karakhanian, A., Babayan, H., Avanesyan, M., Mammadli, T., Al-Qaryouti, M., Kalafat, D., Varazanashvili, O., Erdik, M., and Giardini, D.: The 2014 Earthquake Model of the Middle East: seismogenic sources, Bull. Earthq. Eng., 16, 3465–3496, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-017-0096-8, 2018.
Danciu, L., Nandan, S., Reyes, C., Basili, R., Weatherill, G., Beauval, C., Rovida, A., Vilanova, S., Sesetyan, K., Bard, P.-Y., Cotton, F., Wiemer, S., and Giardini, D.: The 2020 update of the European Seismic Hazard Model: Model Overview, EFEHR Technical Report 001, v1.0.0, EFEHR, https://doi.org/10.12686/a15, 2021.
Danciu, L., Weatherill, G., Rovida, A., Basili, R., Bard, P.-Y., Beauval, C., Nandan, S., Pagani, M., Crowley, H., Sesetyan, K., Villanova, S., Reyes, C., Marti, M., Cotton, F., Wiemer, S., and Giardini, D.: The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model: Milestones and Lessons Learned, in: Progresses in European Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, edited by: Vacareanu, R. and Ionescu, C., Springer International Publishing, Cham, 3–25, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-15104-0_1, 2022.
Davies, J. H.: Global map of solid Earth surface heat flow: Global Surface Heat Flow Map, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 14, 4608–4622, https://doi.org/10.1002/ggge.20271, 2013.
Delavaud, E., Cotton, F., Akkar, S., Scherbaum, F., Danciu, L., Beauval, C., Drouet, S., Douglas, J., Basili, R., Sandikkaya, M. A., Segou, M., Faccioli, E., and Theodoulidis, N.: Toward a ground-motion logic tree for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Europe, J. Seismol., 16, 451–473, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-012-9281-z, 2012.
Demircioğlu, M. B., Şeşetyan, K., Duman, T. Y., Çan, T., Tekin, S., and Ergintav, S.: A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the Turkish territory: part II – fault source and background seismicity model, Bull. Earthq. Eng., 16, 3399–3438, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-017-0130-x, 2018.
Devoti, R., Riguzzi, F., Cuffaro, M., and Doglioni, C.: New GPS constraints on the kinematics of the Apennines subduction, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 273, 163–174, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2008.06.031, 2008.
Diaconescu, M., Craiu, A., Moldovan, I. A., Constantinescu, E. G., and Ghita, C.: Main active faults from eastern part of Romania (Dobrogea and Black Sea), Part II: Transversal and oblique faults system, Romanian Reports in Physics, 71, 708, https://rrp.nipne.ro/2019_71_2.html (last access: 14 November 2024), 2019a.
Diaconescu, M., Craiu, A., Toma-Danila, D., Craiu, G. M., and Ghita, C.: Main active faults from Romania, Part I: Longitudinal and faults system, Romanian Reports in Physics, 71, 702, https://rrp.nipne.ro/2019_71_1.html (last access: 14 November 2024), 2019b.
Diaconescu, M., Craiu, A., Ghita, C., Moldovan, I. A., Oros, E., Constantinescu, E. G., and Marius, M.: Main active faults from Romania, Part III: Fault systems from Dacia tectonic unit, Romanian Reports in Physics, 73, 710, https://rrp.nipne.ro/2021_73_3.html (last access: 14 November 2024), 2021.
DISS Working Group: Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS), version 3.3.0: A compilation of potential sources for earthquakes larger than M 5.5 in Italy and surrounding areas, DISS Working Group [data set], https://doi.org/10.13127/DISS3.3.0, 2021.
Di Stefano, R., Chiarabba, C., Lucente, F., and Amato, A.: Crustal and uppermost mantle structure in Italy fron the inversion of P-wave arrival times: geodynamic impliations, Geophys. J. Int., 139, 483–498, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-246x.1999.00952.x, 1999.
Dutta, R., Jónsson, S., and Vasyura-Bathke, H.: Simultaneous Bayesian Estimation of Non-Planar Fault Geometry and Spatially-Variable Slip, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 126, e2020JB020441, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JB020441, 2021.
Dziewonski, A. M. and Anderson, D. L.: Preliminary reference Earth model, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 25, 297–356, https://doi.org/10.1016/0031-9201(81)90046-7, 1981.
Emre, Ö., Duman, T. Y., Özalp, S., Şaroğlu, F., Olgun, Ş., Elmacı, H., and Çan, T.: Active fault database of Turkey, Bull. Earthq. Eng., 16, 3229–3275, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-016-0041-2, 2018.
England, P. and Jackson, J.: Uncharted seismic risk, Nat. Geosci., 4, 348–349, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1168, 2011.
Escartín, J., Cowie, P. A., Searle, R. C., Allerton, S., Mitchell, N. C., MacLeod, C. J., and Slootweg, A. P.: Quantifying tectonic strain and magmatic accretion at a slow spreading ridge segment, Mid-Atlantic Ridge, 29° N, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 10421–10437, https://doi.org/10.1029/1998JB900097, 1999.
Fadil, A., Vernant, P., McClusky, S., Reilinger, R., Gomez, F., Ben Sari, D., Mourabit, T., Feigl, K., and Barazangi, M.: Active tectonics of the western Mediterranean: Geodetic evidence for rollback of a delaminated subcontinental lithospheric slab beneath the Rif Mountains, Morocco, Geology, 34, 529, https://doi.org/10.1130/G22291.1, 2006.
Fernández-Blanco, D., de Gelder, G., Lacassin, R., and Armijo, R.: A new crustal fault formed the modern Corinth Rift, Earth-Sci. Rev., 199, 102919, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.102919, 2019.
Finocchio, D., Barba, S., and Basili, R.: Slip rate depth distribution for active faults in Central Italy using numerical models, Tectonophysics, 687, 232–244, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2016.07.031, 2016.
Forslund, T. and Gudmundsson, A.: Crustal spreading due to dikes and faults in southwest Iceland, J. Struct. Geol., 13, 443–457, https://doi.org/10.1016/0191-8141(91)90017-D, 1991.
Ganas, A.: NOAFAULTS KMZ layer Version 4.0 (V4.0), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.6326260, 2022.
Ganas, A. and Parsons, T.: Three-dimensional model of Hellenic Arc deformation and origin of the Cretan uplift, J. Geophys. Res., 114, B06404, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JB005599, 2009.
Ganas, A., Oikonomou, I. A., and Tsimi, C.: NOAfaults: a digital database for active faults in Greece, Bull. Geol. Soc. Greece, 47, 518–530, https://doi.org/10.12681/bgsg.11079, 2013.
Ganas, A., Tsironi, V., Kollia, E., Delagas, M., Tsimi, C., and Oikonomou, A.: Recent upgrades of the NOA database of active faults in Greece (NOAFAULTs), in: Proceedings of the 19th General Assembly of WEGENER, 10–13 September 2018, Grenoble, France, https://wegener2018.sciencesconf.org/data/pages/Session_1_Active_Faults_Recent_upgrades_of_the_NOA_database_of_active_faults_in_Greece_NOAFAULTs_.pdf (last access: 14 November 2024), 2018.
Ganas, A., Briole, P., Bozionelos, G., Barberopoulou, A., Elias, P., Tsironi, V., Valkaniotis, S., Moshou, A., and Mintourakis, I.: The 25 October 2018 Mw=6.7 Zakynthos earthquake (Ionian Sea, Greece): A low-angle fault model based on GNSS data, relocated seismicity, small tsunami and implications for the seismic hazard in the west Hellenic Arc, J. Geodynam., 137, 101731, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jog.2020.101731, 2020.
Garcia, S., Angelier, J., Bergerat, F., and Homberg, C.: Tectonic analysis of an oceanic transform fault zone based on fault-slip data and earthquake focal mechanisms: the Húsavík–Flatey Fault zone, Iceland, Tectonophysics, 344, 157–174, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1951(01)00282-7, 2002.
García-Mayordomo, J., Insua-Arévalo, J. M., Martínez-Díaz, J. J., Jiménez-Díaz, A., Martín-Banda, R., Martín-Alfageme, S., Álvarez-Gómez, J. A., Rodríguez-Peces, M., Pérez-López, R., Rodríguez-Pascua, M. A., Masana, E., Perea, H., Martín-González, F., Giner-Robles, J., Nemser, E. S., and Cabral, J.: The Quaternary Active Faults Database of Iberia (QAFI v.2.0), J. Iber. Geol., 38, 285–302, https://doi.org/10.5209/rev_JIGE.2012.v38.n1.39219, 2012.
García-Mayordomo, J., Martín-Banda, R., Insua-Arévalo, J. M., Álvarez-Gómez, J. A., Martínez-Díaz, J. J., and Cabral, J.: Active fault databases: building a bridge between earthquake geologists and seismic hazard practitioners, the case of the QAFI v.3 database, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1447–1459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1447-2017, 2017.
Geist, E. L. and Bilek, S. L.: Effect of depth-dependent shear modulus on tsunami generation along subduction zones, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 1315–1318, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GL012385, 2001.
Goes, S., Agrusta, R., Van Hunen, J., and Garel, F.: Subduction-transition zone interaction: A review, Geosphere, 13, 644–664, https://doi.org/10.1130/GES01476.1, 2017.
Gold, R. D., Friedrich, A., Kübler, S., and Salamon, M.: Apparent Late Quaternary Fault-Slip Rate Increase in the Southern Lower Rhine Graben, Central Europe, Bull. Seismol. Soc. America, 107, 563–580, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120160197, 2017.
Gomez, F., Barazangi, M., and Bensaid, M.: Active tectonism in the intracontinental Middle Atlas Mountains of Morocco: synchronous crustal shortening and extension, J. Geol. Soc., 153, 389–402, https://doi.org/10.1144/gsjgs.153.3.0389, 1996.
Gómez de la Peña, L., Ranero, C. R., and Gràcia, E.: The Crustal Domains of the Alboran Basin (Western Mediterranean), Tectonics, 37, 3352–3377, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017TC004946, 2018.
Gómez de la Peña, L., Gràcia, E., Maesano, F. E., Basili, R., Kopp, H., Sánchez-Serra, C., Scala, A., Romano, F., Volpe, M., Piatanesi, A., and R. Ranero, C.: A first appraisal of the seismogenic and tsunamigenic potential of the largest fault systems in the westernmost Mediterranean, Mar. Geol., 445, 106749, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2022.106749, 2022.
Gómez-Novell, O., García-Mayordomo, J., Ortuño, M., Masana, E., and Chartier, T.: Fault System-Based Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of a Moderate Seismicity Region: The Eastern Betics Shear Zone (SE Spain), Front. Earth Sci., 8, 579398, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.579398, 2020a.
Gómez-Novell, O., Chartier, T., García-Mayordomo, J., Ortuño, M., Masana, E., Insua-Arévalo, J. M., and Scotti, O.: Modelling earthquake rupture rates in fault systems for seismic hazard assessment: The Eastern Betics Shear Zone, Eng. Geol., 265, 105452, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2019.105452, 2020b.
Grad, M., Tiira, T., and ESC Working Group: The Moho depth map of the European Plate, Geophys. J. Int., 176, 279–292, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2008.03919.x, 2009.
Grützner, C., Carson, E., Walker, R. T., Rhodes, E. J., Mukambayev, A., Mackenzie, D., Elliott, J. R., Campbell, G., and Abdrakhmatov, K.: Assessing the activity of faults in continental interiors: Palaeoseismic insights from SE Kazakhstan, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 459, 93–104, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2016.11.025, 2017.
Gutscher, M.-A., Roger, J., Baptista, M.-A., Miranda, J. M., and Tinti, S.: Source of the 1693 Catania earthquake and tsunami (southern Italy): New evidence from tsunami modeling of a locked subduction fault plane, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L08309, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025442, 2006.
Gutscher, M.-A., Dominguez, S., Westbrook, G. K., and Leroy, P.: Deep structure, recent deformation and analog modeling of the Gulf of Cadiz accretionary wedge: Implications for the 1755 Lisbon earthquake, Tectonophysics, 475, 85–97, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2008.11.031, 2009.
Halpaap, F., Rondenay, S., and Ottemöller, L.: Seismicity, Deformation, and Metamorphism in the Western Hellenic Subduction Zone: New Constraints From Tomography, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 123, 3000–3026, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JB015154, 2018.
Halpaap, F., Rondenay, S., Perrin, A., Goes, S., Ottemöller, L., Austrheim, H., Shaw, R., and Eeken, T.: Earthquakes track subduction fluids from slab source to mantle wedge sink, Sci. Adv., 5, eaav7369, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aav7369, 2019.
Haslinger, F., Basili, R., Bossu, R., Cauzzi, C., Cotton, F., Crowley, H., Custódio, S., Danciu, L., Locati, M., Michelini, A., Molinari, I., Ottemöller, L., and Parolai, S.: Coordinated and Interoperable Seismological Data and Product Services in Europe: the EPOS Thematic Core Service for Seismology, Ann. Geophys., 65, DM213, https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-8767, 2022.
Hayes, G. P., Moore, G. L., Portner, D. E., Hearne, M., Flamme, H., Furtney, M., and Smoczyk, G. M.: Slab2, a comprehensive subduction zone geometry model, Science, 362, 58–61, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aat4723, 2018.
Herrero-Barbero, P., Álvarez-Gómez, J. A., Martínez-Díaz, J. J., and Klimowitz, J.: Neogene Basin Inversion and Recent Slip Rate Distribution of the Northern Termination of the Alhama de Murcia Fault (Eastern Betic Shear Zone, SE Spain), Tectonics, 39, e2019TC005750, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019TC005750, 2020.
Heuret, A., Lallemand, S., Funiciello, F., Piromallo, C., and Faccenna, C.: Physical characteristics of subduction interface type seismogenic zones revisited, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 12, Q01004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GC003230, 2011.
Hollenstein, Ch., Müller, M. D., Geiger, A., and Kahle, H.-G.: Crustal motion and deformation in Greece from a decade of GPS measurements, 1993–2003, Tectonophysics, 449, 17–40, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2007.12.006, 2008.
Howell, A., Jackson, J., Copley, A., McKenzie, D., and Nissen, E.: Subduction and vertical coastal motions in the eastern Mediterranean, Geophys. J. Int., 211, 593–620, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggx307, 2017.
IGME: QAFI v.3: Quaternary Faults Database of Iberia, IGME [data set], https://info.igme.es/qafi/ (last access: 30 March 2020), 2015.
ISC: On-line Bulletin, International Seismological Centre, ISC [data set], https://doi.org/10.31905/d808b830, 2019.
Johnston, A. C.: Seismotectonic interpretations and conclusions from the stable continental region seismicity database, in: The Earthquakes of Stable Continental Regions – v. 1 Assessment of Large Earthquake Potential, Report No. TR102261V1,edtied by: Johnston, A. C., Coppersmith, K. J., Kanter, L. R., and Cornell, C. A., Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, California, https://www.epri.com/research/products/TR-102261-V1 (last access: 14 November 2024), 1994.
Jomard, H., Cushing, E. M., Palumbo, L., Baize, S., David, C., and Chartier, T.: Transposing an active fault database into a seismic hazard fault model for nuclear facilities – Part 1: Building a database of potentially active faults (BDFA) for metropolitan France, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1573–1584, hthttps://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1573-2017, 2017.
Kagan, Y. Y. and Jackson, D. D.: Tohoku Earthquake: A Surprise?, Bull. Seismol. Soc. America, 103, 1181–1194, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120120110, 2013.
Kagan, Y. Y., Bird, P., and Jackson, D. D.: Earthquake Patterns in Diverse Tectonic Zones of the Globe, Pure Appl. Geophys., 167, 721–741, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-010-0075-3, 2010.
Kastens, K. A.: Rate of outward growth of the Mediterranean ridge accretionary complex, Tectonophysics, 199, 25–50, https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(91)90117-B, 1991.
Koulali, A., Ouazar, D., Tahayt, A., King, R. W., Vernant, P., Reilinger, R. E., McClusky, S., Mourabit, T., Davila, J. M., and Amraoui, N.: New GPS constraints on active deformation along the Africa–Iberia plate boundary, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 308, 211–217, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2011.05.048, 2011.
LaFemina, P. C., Dixon, T. H., Malservisi, R., Árnadóttir, T., Sturkell, E., Sigmundsson, F., and Einarsson, P.: Geodetic GPS measurements in south Iceland: Strain accumulation and partitioning in a propagating ridge system, J. Geophys. Res., 110, B11405, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JB003675, 2005.
Laigle, M., Hirn, A., Sachpazi, M., and Clément, C.: Seismic coupling and structure of the Hellenic subduction zone in the Ionian Islands region, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 200, 243–253, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0012-821X(02)00654-4, 2002.
Laigle, M., Sachpazi, M., and Hirn, A.: Variation of seismic coupling with slab detachment and upper plate structure along the western Hellenic subduction zone, Tectonophysics, 391, 85–95, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2004.07.009, 2004.
Leonard, M.: Earthquake Fault Scaling: Self-Consistent Relating of Rupture Length, Width, Average Displacement, and Moment Release, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 100, 1971–1988, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120090189, 2010.
Leonard, M.: Self-Consistent Earthquake Fault-Scaling Relations: Update and Extension to Stable Continental Strike-Slip Faults, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 104, 2953–2965, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120140087, 2014.
MacDonald, K. C. and Luyendyk, B. P.: Deep-tow studies of the structure of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge crest near lat 37° N, GSA Bull., 88, 621–636, https://doi.org/10.1130/0016-7606(1977)88<621:DSOTSO>2.0.CO;2, 1977.
Maesano, F. E., Tiberti, M. M., and Basili, R.: The Calabrian Arc: Three-dimensional modelling of the subduction interface, Sci. Rep., 7, 8887, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-09074-8, 2017.
Maesano, F. E., Buttinelli, M., Maffucci, R., Toscani, G., Basili, R., Bonini, L., Burrato, P., Fedorik, J., Fracassi, U., Panara, Y., Tarabusi, G., Tiberti, M. M., Valensise, G., Vallone, R., and Vannoli, P.: Buried alive: imaging the November 9, 2022, Mw 5.5 earthquake source on the offshore Adriatic blind thrust front of the Northern Apennines (Italy), Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2022GL102299, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102299, 2023.
Maggini, M. and Caputo, R.: Rheological behaviour in continental and oceanic subduction:inferences for the seismotectonics of the Aegean Region, Turk. J. Earth Sci., 29, 381–405, https://doi.org/10.3906/yer-1909-4, 2020.
Maggini, M. and Caputo, R.: Seismological data versus rheological modelling: Comparisons across the Aegean Region for improving the seismic hazard assessment, J. Struct. Geol., 145, 104312, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsg.2021.104312, 2021.
Martínez-Loriente, S., Gràcia, E., Bartolome, R., Sallarès, V., Connors, C., Perea, H., Lo Iacono, C., Klaeschen, D., Terrinha, P., Dañobeitia, J. J., and Zitellini, N.: Active deformation in old oceanic lithosphere and significance for earthquake hazard: Seismic imaging of the Coral Patch Ridge area and neighboring abyssal plains (SW Iberian Margin), Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 14, 2206–2231, https://doi.org/10.1002/ggge.20173, 2013.
Martínez-Loriente, S., Sallarès, V., Gràcia, E., Bartolome, R., Dañobeitia, J. J., and Zitellini, N.: Seismic and gravity constraints on the nature of the basement in the Africa-Eurasia plate boundary: New insights for the geodynamic evolution of the SW Iberian margin: Thin oceanic crust at the CPR and SH, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 119, 127–149, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JB010476, 2014.
Martínez-Loriente, S., Gràcia, E., Bartolome, R., Perea, H., Klaeschen, D., Dañobeitia, J. J., Zitellini, N., Wynn, R. B., and Masson, D. G.: Morphostructure, tectono-sedimentary evolution and seismic potential of the Horseshoe Fault, SW Iberian Margin, Basin Res., 30, 382–400, https://doi.org/10.1111/bre.12225, 2018.
Morell, K. D., Styron, R., Stirling, M., Griffin, J., Archuleta, R., and Onur, T.: Seismic Hazard Analyses From Geologic and Geomorphic Data: Current and Future Challenges, Tectonics, 39, e2018TC005365, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018TC005365, 2020.
Müller, R. D., Sdrolias, M., Gaina, C., and Roest, W. R.: Age, spreading rates, and spreading asymmetry of the world's ocean crust, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 9, Q04006, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GC001743, 2008.
Neres, M., Carafa, M. M. C., Fernandes, R. M. S., Matias, L., Duarte, J. C., Barba, S., and Terrinha, P.: Lithospheric deformation in the Africa-Iberia plate boundary: Improved neotectonic modeling testing a basal-driven Alboran plate, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 121, 6566–6596, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JB013012, 2016.
Nijholt, N., Govers, R., and Wortel, R.: On the forces that drive and resist deformation of the south-central Mediterranean: a mechanical model study, Geophys. J. Int., 214, 876–894, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggy144, 2018.
NOAA National Geophysical Data Center: ETOPO1 1 arc-minute global relief model, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, NOAA Natinal Geophysical Data Center [data set], https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/metadata/geoportal/rest/metadata/item/gov.noaa.ngdc.mgg.dem:316/html (last access: 17 September 2016), 2009.
Nocquet, J.-M.: Present-day kinematics of the Mediterranean: A comprehensive overview of GPS results, Tectonophysics, 579, 220–242, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2012.03.037, 2012.
Onur, T., Gok, R., Godoladze, T., Gunia, I., Boichenko, G., Buzaladze, A., Tumanova, N., Dzmanashvili, M., Sukhishvili, L., Javakishvili, Z., Cowgill, E., Bondar, I., and Yetirmishli, G.: Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Georgia, OSTI.GOV, https://doi.org/10.2172/1511856, 2019.
Onur, T., Gok, R., Godoladze, T., Gunia, I., Boichenko, G., Buzaladze, A., Tumanova, N., Dzmanashvili, M., Sukhishvili, L., Javakishvili, Z., Cowgill, E., Bondár, I., and Yetirmishli, G.: Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment Using Legacy Data in Georgia, Seismol. Res. Lett., 91, 1500–1517, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220190331, 2020.
Pagani, M., Monelli, D., Weatherill, G., Danciu, L., Crowley, H., Silva, V., Henshaw, P., Butler, L., Nastasi, M., Panzeri, L., Simionato, M., and Vigano, D.: OpenQuake Engine: An Open Hazard (and Risk) Software for the Global Earthquake Model, Seismol. Res. Lett., 85, 692–702, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220130087, 2014.
Palano, M., González, P. J., and Fernández, J.: The Diffuse Plate boundary of Nubia and Iberia in the Western Mediterranean: Crustal deformation evidence for viscous coupling and fragmented lithosphere, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 430, 439–447, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2015.08.040, 2015.
Panara, Y., Maesano, F. E., Amadori, C., Fedorik, J., Toscani, G., and Basili, R.: Probabilistic Assessment of Slip Rates and Their Variability Over Time of Offshore Buried Thrusts: A Case Study in the Northern Adriatic Sea, Front. Earth Sci., 9, 664288, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.664288, 2021.
Passone, L. and Mai, P. M.: Kinematic Earthquake Ground-Motion Simulations on Listric Normal Faults, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 107, 2980–2993, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120170111, 2017.
Pastor, A., Babault, J., Owen, L. A., Teixell, A., and Arboleya, M.-L.: Extracting dynamic topography from river profiles and cosmogenic nuclide geochronology in the Middle Atlas and the High Plateaus of Morocco, Tectonophysics, 663, 95–109, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2015.06.007, 2015.
Perea, H., Gràcia, E., Martínez-Loriente, S., Bartolome, R., de la Peña, L. G., de Mol, B., Moreno, X., Iacono, C. L., Diez, S., Tello, O., Gómez-Ballesteros, M., and Dañobeitia, J. J.: Kinematic analysis of secondary faults within a distributed shear-zone reveals fault linkage and increased seismic hazard, Mar. Geol., 399, 23–33, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2018.02.002, 2018.
Perea, H., Martínez-Loriente, S., Maloney, J., Maesano, F. E., and Vannucchi, P.: Editorial: Submarine Active Faults: From Regional Observations to Seismic Hazard Characterization, Front. Earth Sci., 9, 809205, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.809205, 2021.
Reilinger, R., McClusky, S., Vernant, P., Lawrence, S., Ergintav, S., Cakmak, R., Ozener, H., Kadirov, F., Guliev, I., Stepanyan, R., Nadariya, M., Hahubia, G., Mahmoud, S., Sakr, K., ArRajehi, A., Paradissis, D., Al-Aydrus, A., Prilepin, M., Guseva, T., Evren, E., Dmitrotsa, A., Filikov, S. V., Gomez, F., Al-Ghazzi, R., and Karam, G.: GPS constraints on continental deformation in the Africa-Arabia-Eurasia continental collision zone and implications for the dynamics of plate interactions, J. Geophys. Res., 111, B05411, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JB004051, 2006.
Reilinger, R., McClusky, S., Paradissis, D., Ergintav, S., and Vernant, P.: Geodetic constraints on the tectonic evolution of the Aegean region and strain accumulation along the Hellenic subduction zone, Tectonophysics, 488, 22–30, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2009.05.027, 2010.
Rigby, M.: Recent faulting and active shortening of the Middle Atlas Mountains, Morocco, within the diffuse African-Eurasian plate boundary, Master of Science Degree Thesis, Faculty of the Graduate School, University of Missouri-Columbia, https://doi.org/10.32469/10355/5796, 2008.
Rögnvaldsson, S. T., Gudmundsson, A., and Slunga, R.: Seismotectonic analysis of the Tjörnes Fracture Zone, an active transform fault in north Iceland, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 30117–30129, https://doi.org/10.1029/98JB02789, 1998.
Rontogianni, S.: Comparison of geodetic and seismic strain rates in Greece by using a uniform processing approach to campaign GPS measurements over the interval 1994–2000, J. Geodynam., 50, 381–399, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jog.2010.04.008, 2010.
Rust, D. and Whitworth, M.: A unique ∼12 ka subaerial record of rift-transform triple-junction tectonics, NE Iceland, Sci. Rep., 9, 9669, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-45903-8, 2019.
Sachpazi, M., Laigle, M., Charalampakis, M., Diaz, J., Kissling, E., Gesret, A., Becel, A., Flueh, E., Miles, P., and Hirn, A.: Segmented Hellenic slab rollback driving Aegean deformation and seismicity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 651–658, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066818, 2016.
Sallarès, V. and Ranero, C. R.: Upper-plate rigidity determines depth-varying rupture behaviour of megathrust earthquakes, Nature, 576, 96–101, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1784-0, 2019.
Sallarès, V., Gailler, A., Gutscher, M.-A., Graindorge, D., Bartolomé, R., Gràcia, E., Díaz, J., Dañobeitia, J. J., and Zitellini, N.: Seismic evidence for the presence of Jurassic oceanic crust in the central Gulf of Cadiz (SW Iberian margin), Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 311, 112–123, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2011.09.003, 2011.
Sallarès, V., Martínez-Loriente, S., Prada, M., Gràcia, E., Ranero, C., Gutscher, M.-A., Bartolome, R., Gailler, A., Dañobeitia, J. J., and Zitellini, N.: Seismic evidence of exhumed mantle rock basement at the Gorringe Bank and the adjacent Horseshoe and Tagus abyssal plains (SW Iberia), Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 365, 120–131, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2013.01.021, 2013.
Sanz de Galdeano, C., Azañón, J. M., Cabral, J., Ruano, P., Alfaro, P., Canora, C., Ferrater, M., García Tortosa, F. J., García-Mayordomo, J., Gràcia, E., Insua-Arévalo, J. M., Jiménez Bonilla, A., Lacan, P. G., Marín-Lechado, C., Martín-Banda, R., Martín González, F., Martínez-Díaz, J. J., Martín-Rojas, I., Masana, E., Ortuño, M., Pedrera, A., Perea, H., and Simón, J. L.: Active Faults in Iberia, in: The Geology of Iberia: A Geodynamic Approach, edited by: Quesada, C. and Oliveira, J. T., Springer International Publishing, Cham, 33–75, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-10931-8_4, 2020.
Satake, K. and Tanioka, Y.: Sources of Tsunami and Tsunamigenic Earthquakes in Subduction Zones, Pure Appl. Geophys., 154, 467–483, https://doi.org/10.1007/s000240050240, 1999.
Scala, A., Lorito, S., Romano, F., Murphy, S., Selva, J., Basili, R., Babeyko, A., Herrero, A., Hoechner, A., Løvholt, F., Maesano, F. E., Perfetti, P., Tiberti, M. M., Tonini, R., Volpe, M., Davies, G., Festa, G., Power, W., Piatanesi, A., and Cirella, A.: Effect of Shallow Slip Amplification Uncertainty on Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis in Subduction Zones: Use of Long-Term Balanced Stochastic Slip Models, Pure Appl. Geophys., 177, 1497–1520, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-019-02260-x, 2020.
Serra, C. S., Martínez-Loriente, S., Gràcia, E., Urgeles, R., Gómez de la Peña, L., Maesano, F. E., Basili, R., Volpe, M., Romano, F., Scala, A., Piatanesi, A., and Lorito, S.: Sensitivity of Tsunami Scenarios to Complex Fault Geometry and Heterogeneous Slip Distribution: Case-Studies for SW Iberia and NW Morocco, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 126, e2021JB022127, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JB022127, 2021.
Shaw, B. and Jackson, J.: Earthquake mechanisms and active tectonics of the Hellenic subduction zone, Geophys. J. Int., 181, 966–984, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04551.x, 2010.
Skarlatoudis, A. A., Somerville, P. G., and Thio, H. K.: Source-Scaling Relations of Interface Subduction Earthquakes for Strong Ground Motion and Tsunami Simulation, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 106, 1652–1662, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120150320, 2016.
Šket Motnikar, B., Zupančič, P., Živčić, M., Atanackov, J., Jamšek Rupnik, P., Čarman, M., Danciu, L., and Gosar, A.: The 2021 seismic hazard model for Slovenia (SHMS21): overview and results, Bull. Earthq. Eng., 20, 4865–4894, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-022-01399-8, 2022.
Stich, D., Serpelloni, E., de Lis Mancilla, F., and Morales, J.: Kinematics of the Iberia–Maghreb plate contact from seismic moment tensors and GPS observations, Tectonophysics, 426, 295–317, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2006.08.004, 2006.
Styron, R. and Pagani, M.: The GEM Global Active Faults Database, Earthq. Spectra, 36, 160–180, https://doi.org/10.1177/8755293020944182, 2020.
Syracuse, E. M., van Keken, P. E., and Abers, G. A.: The global range of subduction zone thermal models, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 183, 73–90, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pepi.2010.02.004, 2010.
Thiebot, E. and Gutscher, M.-A.: The Gibraltar Arc seismogenic zone (part 1): Constraints on a shallow east dipping fault plane source for the 1755 Lisbon earthquake provided by seismic data, gravity and thermal modeling, Tectonophysics, 426, 135–152, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2006.02.024, 2006.
Thingbaijam, K. K. S., Martin Mai, P., and Goda, K.: New Empirical Earthquake Source-Scaling Laws, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 107, 2225–2246, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120170017, 2017.
Tonini, R., Basili, R., Maesano, F. E., Tiberti, M. M., Lorito, S., Romano, F., Scala, A., and Volpe, M.: Importance of earthquake rupture geometry on tsunami modelling: The Calabrian Arc subduction interface (Italy) case study, Geophys. J. Int., 223, 1805–1819, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggaa409, 2020.
van der Woerd, J., Dorbath, C., Ousadou, F., Dorbath, L., Delouis, B., Jacques, E., Tapponnier, P., Hahou, Y., Menzhi, M., Frogneux, M., and Haessler, H.: The Al Hoceima Mw 6.4 earthquake of 24 February 2004 and its aftershocks sequence, J. Geodynam., 77, 89–109, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jog.2013.12.004, 2014.
Vanneste, K., Camelbeeck, T., and Verbeeck, K.: A Model of Composite Seismic Sources for the Lower Rhine Graben, Northwest Europe, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 103, 984–1007, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120120037, 2013.
Wang, K. and Dixon, T.: “Coupling” Semantics and science in earthquake research, Eos Trans. AGU, 85, 180, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004EO180005, 2004.
Wdowinski, S., Ben-Avraham, Z., Arvidsson, R., and Ekström, G.: Seismotectonics of the Cyprian Arc, Geophys. J. Int., 164, 176–181, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2005.02737.x, 2006.
Wells, D. L. and Coppersmith, K. J.: New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 84, 974–1002, https://doi.org/10.1785/BSSA0840040974, 1994.
Woessner, J., Danciu, L., Giardini, D., Crowley, H., Cotton, F., Grünthal, G., Valensise, G., Arvidsson, R., Basili, R., Demircioglu, M. B., Hiemer, S., Meletti, C., Musson, R. W., Rovida, A. N., Sesetyan, K., Stucchi, M., and the SHARE Consortium: The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model: key components and results, Bull. Earthq. Eng., 13, 3553–3596, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-015-9795-1, 2015.
Short summary
This study presents the European Fault-Source Model 2020 (EFSM20), a dataset of 1248 geologic crustal faults and four subduction systems, each having the necessary parameters to forecast long-term earthquake occurrences in the European continent. This dataset constituted one of the main inputs for the recently released European Seismic Hazard Model 2020, a key instrument to mitigate seismic risk in Europe. EFSM20 adopts recognized open-standard formats, and it is openly accessible and reusable.
This study presents the European Fault-Source Model 2020 (EFSM20), a dataset of 1248 geologic...
Special issue
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint