Articles | Volume 22, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Nov 2022
Research article |
| 17 Nov 2022
| 17 Nov 2022
Meteorological, impact and climate perspectives of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event in the Berlin metropolitan area
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Markus Augenstein
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Georgy Ayzel
Universität Potsdam, Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Klemens Barfus
Technische Universität Dresden, Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Pienner Straße 23, 01737 Tharandt, Germany
Ribu Cherian
Institute for Meteorology, Universität Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
Lisa Dillenardt
Universität Potsdam, Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Felix Fauer
Freie Universität Berlin, Institute of Meteorology, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6–10, 12165 Berlin, Germany
Hendrik Feldmann
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Maik Heistermann
Universität Potsdam, Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Alexia Karwat
Universität Hamburg, Meteorological Institute, Grindelberg 5, 20144 Hamburg, Germany
Frank Kaspar
Deutscher Wetterdienst, Frankfurter Straße 135, 63067 Offenbach am Main, Germany
Heidi Kreibich
Section Hydrology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Etor Emanuel Lucio-Eceiza
Freie Universität Berlin, Institute of Meteorology, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6–10, 12165 Berlin, Germany
Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum, Bundesstraße 45a, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Edmund P. Meredith
Freie Universität Berlin, Institute of Meteorology, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6–10, 12165 Berlin, Germany
Susanna Mohr
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Deborah Niermann
Deutscher Wetterdienst, Frankfurter Straße 135, 63067 Offenbach am Main, Germany
Stephan Pfahl
Freie Universität Berlin, Institute of Meteorology, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6–10, 12165 Berlin, Germany
Florian Ruff
Freie Universität Berlin, Institute of Meteorology, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6–10, 12165 Berlin, Germany
Henning W. Rust
Freie Universität Berlin, Institute of Meteorology, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6–10, 12165 Berlin, Germany
Lukas Schoppa
Universität Potsdam, Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Section Hydrology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Thomas Schwitalla
Institute of Physics and Meteorology, University of Hohenheim, Garbenstraß 30, 70599 Stuttgart, Germany
Stella Steidl
Deutscher Wetterdienst, Frankfurter Straße 135, 63067 Offenbach am Main, Germany
Annegret H. Thieken
Universität Potsdam, Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Jordis S. Tradowsky
Deutscher Wetterdienst, Regionales Klimabüro Potsdam, Güterfelder Damm 87–91 14532 Stahnsdorf, Germany
Bodeker Scientific, 42 Russell Street, Alexandra 9391, New Zealand
Volker Wulfmeyer
Institute of Physics and Meteorology, University of Hohenheim, Garbenstraß 30, 70599 Stuttgart, Germany
Institute for Meteorology, Universität Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
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Georgy Ayzel and Maik Heistermann
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Belinda Rhein and Heidi Kreibich
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The 2021 flood killed 190 people in Germany, 134 of them in the Ahr valley, making it the deadliest flood in recent German history. The flash flood was extreme in terms of water levels, flow velocities and flood extent, early warning and evacuation were inadequate. Many died on the ground floor or in the street, with older and impaired individuals especially vulnerable. Clear warnings should urge people to seek safety rather than save belongings, and timely evacuations are essential.
Johannes Meuer, Laurens M. Bouwer, Frank Kaspar, Roman Lehmann, Wolfgang Karl, Thomas Ludwig, and Christopher Kadow
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1392, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1392, 2024
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Our study focuses on filling in missing precipitation data using an advanced neural network model. Traditional methods for estimating missing climate information often struggle in large regions where data is scarce. Our solution, which incorporates recent advances in machine learning, captures the intricate patterns of precipitation over time, especially during extreme weather events. Our model shows good performance in reconstructing large regions of missing rainfall radar data.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-119, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-119, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Goutam Choudhury, Karoline Block, Mahnoosh Haghighatnasab, Johannes Quaas, Tom Goren, and Matthias Tesche
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1863, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1863, 2024
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Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2147–2164, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024, 2024
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To identify flash flood potential in Germany, we shifted the most extreme rainfall events from the last 22 years systematically across Germany and simulated the consequent runoff reaction. Our results show that almost all areas in Germany have not seen the worst-case scenario of flood peaks within the last 22 years. With a slight spatial change of historical rainfall events, flood peaks of a factor of 2 or more would be achieved for most areas. The results can aid disaster risk management.
Johannes Mülmenstädt, Edward Gryspeerdt, Sudhakar Dipu, Johannes Quaas, Andrew S. Ackerman, Ann M. Fridlind, Florian Tornow, Susanne E. Bauer, Andrew Gettelman, Yi Ming, Youtong Zheng, Po-Lun Ma, Hailong Wang, Kai Zhang, Matthew W. Christensen, Adam C. Varble, L. Ruby Leung, Xiaohong Liu, David Neubauer, Daniel G. Partridge, Philip Stier, and Toshihiko Takemura
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7331–7345, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7331-2024, 2024
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Human activities release copious amounts of small particles called aerosols into the atmosphere. These particles change how much sunlight clouds reflect to space, an important human perturbation of the climate, whose magnitude is highly uncertain. We found that the latest climate models show a negative correlation but a positive causal relationship between aerosols and cloud water. This means we need to be very careful when we interpret observational studies that can only see correlation.
Abhay Devasthale, Sandra Andersson, Erik Engström, Frank Kaspar, Jörg Trentmann, Anke Duguay-Tetzlaff, Jan Fokke Meirink, Erik Kjellström, Tomas Landelius, Manu Anna Thomas, and Karl-Göran Karlsson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1805, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1805, 2024
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Using the satellite-based climate data record CLARA-A3 spanning 1982–2020 and ERA5 reanalysis, we present climate regimes that are favourable or unfavourable for solar energy applications. We show that the favourable climate regimes are emerging over much of Europe during spring and early summer for solar energy exploitation.
Andreas Trojand, Henning Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1506, 2024
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The study investigates how the intensity of previous windstorm events and the time between two events affect the vulnerability of residential buildings in Germany. By analyzing 23 years of data, it was found that higher intensity of previous events generally reduces vulnerability in subsequent storms, while shorter intervals between events increase vulnerability. The results emphasize the approach of considering vulnerability in risk assessments as temporal dynamic.
Maurice W. M. L. Kalthof, Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Heidi Kreibich, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1588, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1588, 2024
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Our study explores how farmers in India's Bhima basin respond to consecutive droughts. We simulated all farmers' individual choices—like changing crops or digging wells—and their effects on profits, yields, and water resources. Results show these adaptations, while improving incomes, ultimately increase drought vulnerability and damages. Such insights emphasize the need for alternative adaptations and highlight the value of socio-hydrology models in shaping policies to lessen drought impacts.
Yan Li, Bo Huang, Chunping Tan, Xia Zhang, Francesco Cherubini, and Henning W. Rust
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1270, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1270, 2024
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Forest cover changes primarily affect the global climate system by altering the energy and water balance on the surface. This study explores how large-scale deforestation impacts drought across diverse climate zones and time scales. Results reveal drier conditions in tropics but wetter climates in arid regions post-deforestation. Minimal impact observed in temperate zones. Long-term drought is more affected than short-term. These insights enhance understanding of vegetation-climate dynamics.
Bjorn Stevens, Stefan Adami, Tariq Ali, Hartwig Anzt, Zafer Aslan, Sabine Attinger, Jaana Bäck, Johanna Baehr, Peter Bauer, Natacha Bernier, Bob Bishop, Hendryk Bockelmann, Sandrine Bony, Guy Brasseur, David N. Bresch, Sean Breyer, Gilbert Brunet, Pier Luigi Buttigieg, Junji Cao, Christelle Castet, Yafang Cheng, Ayantika Dey Choudhury, Deborah Coen, Susanne Crewell, Atish Dabholkar, Qing Dai, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Dale Durran, Ayoub El Gaidi, Charlie Ewen, Eleftheria Exarchou, Veronika Eyring, Florencia Falkinhoff, David Farrell, Piers M. Forster, Ariane Frassoni, Claudia Frauen, Oliver Fuhrer, Shahzad Gani, Edwin Gerber, Debra Goldfarb, Jens Grieger, Nicolas Gruber, Wilco Hazeleger, Rolf Herken, Chris Hewitt, Torsten Hoefler, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Daniela Jacob, Alexandra Jahn, Christian Jakob, Thomas Jung, Christopher Kadow, In-Sik Kang, Sarah Kang, Karthik Kashinath, Katharina Kleinen-von Königslöw, Daniel Klocke, Uta Kloenne, Milan Klöwer, Chihiro Kodama, Stefan Kollet, Tobias Kölling, Jenni Kontkanen, Steve Kopp, Michal Koran, Markku Kulmala, Hanna Lappalainen, Fakhria Latifi, Bryan Lawrence, June Yi Lee, Quentin Lejeun, Christian Lessig, Chao Li, Thomas Lippert, Jürg Luterbacher, Pekka Manninen, Jochem Marotzke, Satoshi Matsouoka, Charlotte Merchant, Peter Messmer, Gero Michel, Kristel Michielsen, Tomoki Miyakawa, Jens Müller, Ramsha Munir, Sandeep Narayanasetti, Ousmane Ndiaye, Carlos Nobre, Achim Oberg, Riko Oki, Tuba Özkan-Haller, Tim Palmer, Stan Posey, Andreas Prein, Odessa Primus, Mike Pritchard, Julie Pullen, Dian Putrasahan, Johannes Quaas, Krishnan Raghavan, Venkatachalam Ramaswamy, Markus Rapp, Florian Rauser, Markus Reichstein, Aromar Revi, Sonakshi Saluja, Masaki Satoh, Vera Schemann, Sebastian Schemm, Christina Schnadt Poberaj, Thomas Schulthess, Cath Senior, Jagadish Shukla, Manmeet Singh, Julia Slingo, Adam Sobel, Silvina Solman, Jenna Spitzer, Philip Stier, Thomas Stocker, Sarah Strock, Hang Su, Petteri Taalas, John Taylor, Susann Tegtmeier, Georg Teutsch, Adrian Tompkins, Uwe Ulbrich, Pier-Luigi Vidale, Chien-Ming Wu, Hao Xu, Najibullah Zaki, Laure Zanna, Tianjun Zhou, and Florian Ziemen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2113–2122, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, 2024
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To manage Earth in the Anthropocene, new tools, new institutions, and new forms of international cooperation will be required. Earth Virtualization Engines is proposed as an international federation of centers of excellence to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.
Sabine Doktorowski, Jan Kretzschmar, Johannes Quaas, Marc Salzmann, and Odran Sourdeval
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3099–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3099-2024, 2024
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Especially over the midlatitudes, precipitation is mainly formed via the ice phase. In this study we focus on the initial snow formation process in the ICON-AES, the aggregation process. We use a stochastical approach for the aggregation parameterization and investigate the influence in the ICON-AES. Therefore, a distribution function of cloud ice is created, which is evaluated with satellite data. The new approach leads to cloud ice loss and an improvement in the process rate bias.
Seth Bryant, Heidi Kreibich, and Bruno Merz
Proc. IAHS, 386, 181–187, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-386-181-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-386-181-2024, 2024
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Our study found that simplifying data in flood risk models can introduce errors. We tested 344 damage functions and found errors up to 40 % of the total asset value. This means large-scale flood risk assessments may have significant errors due to the modelling approach. Our research highlights the need for more attention to data aggregation in flood risk models.
Madlen Peter, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1261–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, 2024
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The paper introduces a statistical modeling approach describing daily extreme precipitation in Germany more accurately by including changes within the year and between the years simultaneously. The changing seasonality over years is regionally divergent and mainly weak. However, some regions stand out with a more pronounced linear rise of summer intensities, indicating a possible climate change signal. Improved modeling of extreme precipitation is beneficial for risk assessment and adaptation.
Johannes Mülmenstädt, Andrew S. Ackerman, Ann M. Fridlind, Meng Huang, Po-Lun Ma, Naser Mahfouz, Susanne E. Bauer, Susannah M. Burrows, Matthew W. Christensen, Sudhakar Dipu, Andrew Gettelman, L. Ruby Leung, Florian Tornow, Johannes Quaas, Adam C. Varble, Hailong Wang, Kai Zhang, and Youtong Zheng
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-778, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-778, 2024
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Stratocumulus clouds play a large role in Earth's climate by reflecting incoming solar energy back to space. Turbulence at stratocumulus cloud top mixes in drier, warmer air, which can lead to a reduction in cloud. This process is challenging for coarse-resolution global models to represent. We show that global models nevertheless agree well with our process understanding. Global models also think the process is less important for the climate than other lines of evidence had led us to conclude.
Maik Heistermann, Till Francke, Martin Schrön, and Sascha E. Oswald
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 989–1000, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-989-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-989-2024, 2024
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Cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) is a non-invasive technique used to obtain estimates of soil water content (SWC) at a horizontal footprint of around 150 m and a vertical penetration depth of up to 30 cm. However, typical CRNS applications require the local calibration of a function which converts neutron counts to SWC. As an alternative, we propose a generalized function as a way to avoid the use of local reference measurements of SWC and hence a major source of uncertainty.
Volker Wulfmeyer, Christoph Senff, Florian Späth, Andreas Behrendt, Diego Lange, Robert M. Banta, W. Alan Brewer, Andreas Wieser, and David D. Turner
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 1175–1196, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1175-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1175-2024, 2024
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A simultaneous deployment of Doppler, temperature, and water-vapor lidar systems is used to provide profiles of molecular destruction rates and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) dissipation in the convective boundary layer (CBL). The results can be used for the parameterization of turbulent variables, TKE budget analyses, and the verification of weather forecast and climate models.
Seth Bryant, Guy Schumann, Heiko Apel, Heidi Kreibich, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 575–588, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-575-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-575-2024, 2024
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A new algorithm has been developed to quickly produce high-resolution flood maps. It is faster and more accurate than current methods and is available as open-source scripts. This can help communities better prepare for and mitigate flood damages without expensive modelling.
Edgar Dolores-Tesillos and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 163–179, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-163-2024, 2024
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In a warmer climate, the winter extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic basin are expected to have a larger footprint of strong winds. Dynamical changes at different altitudes are responsible for these wind changes. Based on backward trajectories using the CESM-LE simulations, we show that the diabatic processes gain relevance as the planet warms. For instance, changes in the radiative processes will play an important role in the upper-level cyclone dynamics.
Ivan Vorobevskii, Jeongha Park, Dongkyun Kim, Klemens Barfus, and Rico Kronenberg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 391–416, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-391-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-391-2024, 2024
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High-resolution precipitation data are often a “must” as input for hydrological and hydraulic models (i.e. urban drainage modelling). However, station or climate projection data usually do not provide the required (e.g. sub-hourly) resolution. In the work, we present two new statistical models of different types to disaggregate precipitation from a daily to a 10 min scale. Both models were validated using radar data and then applied to climate models for 10 stations in Germany and South Korea.
Oliver Branch, Lisa Jach, Thomas Schwitalla, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Volker Wulfmeyer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 109–129, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-109-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-109-2024, 2024
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In the United Arab Emirates, water scarcity is reaching a crisis point, and new methods for obtaining freshwater are urgently needed. Regional climate engineering with large artificial heat islands can enhance desert precipitation by increasing cloud development. Through model simulation, we show that heat islands of 20 × 20 km or larger can potentially produce enough annual rainfall to supply thousands of people. Thus, artificial heat islands should be made a high priority for further research.
Lisa Dillenardt and Annegret H. Thieken
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-162, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-162, 2024
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Using survey data, we analysed the influence of different flood types on whether households implement adaptive measures. We found that communication and management strategies need to involve municipalities and should be tailored to the locally relevant flood type.
Andy Richling, Jens Grieger, and Henning W. Rust
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2582, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2582, 2024
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The performance of weather and climate prediction systems is variable in time and space. It is of interest how this performance varies in different situations. We provide a decomposition of a skill score –a measure of forecast performance– as a tool for detailed assessment of performance variability to support model development or forecast improvement. The framework is exemplified with decadal forecasts to assess the impact of different ocean states in the North Atlantic on temperature forecast.
Yan Li, Bo Huang, and Henning W. Rust
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 321–339, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-321-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-321-2024, 2024
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The inconsistent changes in temperature and precipitation induced by forest cover change are very likely to affect drought condition. We use a set of statistical models to explore the relationship between forest cover change and drought change in different timescales and climate zones. We find that the influence of forest cover on droughts varies under different precipitation and temperature quantiles. Forest cover also could modulate the impacts of precipitation and temperature on drought.
Julian F. Quinting, Christian M. Grams, Edmund Kar-Man Chang, Stephan Pfahl, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 65–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-65-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-65-2024, 2024
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Research in the last few decades has revealed that rapidly ascending airstreams in extratropical cyclones have an important effect on the evolution of downstream weather and predictability. In this study, we show that the occurrence of these airstreams over the North Pacific is modulated by tropical convection. Depending on the modulation, known atmospheric circulation patterns evolve quite differently, which may affect extended-range predictions in the Atlantic–European region.
Karoline Block, Mahnoosh Haghighatnasab, Daniel G. Partridge, Philip Stier, and Johannes Quaas
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 443–470, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-443-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-443-2024, 2024
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Aerosols being able to act as condensation nuclei for cloud droplets (CCNs) are a key element in cloud formation but very difficult to determine. In this study we present a new global vertically resolved CCN dataset for various humidity conditions and aerosols. It is obtained using an atmospheric model (CAMS reanalysis) that is fed by satellite observations of light extinction (AOD). We investigate and evaluate the abundance of CCNs in the atmosphere and their temporal and spatial occurrence.
George Pacey, Stephan Pfahl, Lisa Schielicke, and Kathrin Wapler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, 2023
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Cold fronts are often associated with areas of intense precipitation (cells) and sometimes with hazards such as flooding, hail and lightning. We find that cold-frontal cell days are associated with higher cell frequency and cells are typically more intense. We also show both spatially and temporally where cells are most frequent depending on their cell-front distance. These results are an important step towards a deeper understanding of cold-frontal storm climatology and improved forecasting.
Leonie Villiger, Marina Dütsch, Sandrine Bony, Marie Lothon, Stephan Pfahl, Heini Wernli, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Patrick Chazette, Pierre Coutris, Julien Delanoë, Cyrille Flamant, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Martin Werner, and Franziska Aemisegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14643–14672, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, 2023
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This study evaluates three numerical simulations performed with an isotope-enabled weather forecast model and investigates the coupling between shallow trade-wind cumulus clouds and atmospheric circulations on different scales. We show that the simulations reproduce key characteristics of shallow trade-wind clouds as observed during the field experiment EUREC4A and that the spatial distribution of stable-water-vapour isotopes is shaped by the overturning circulation associated with these clouds.
Thomas Spangehl, Michael Borsche, Deborah Niermann, Frank Kaspar, Semjon Schimanke, Susanne Brienen, Thomas Möller, and Maren Brast
Adv. Sci. Res., 20, 109–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-109-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-109-2023, 2023
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The quality of the global reanalysis ERA5, the regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6 and a successor version (R6G2), the new Copernicus European Regional Re-Analysis (CERRA) and a regional downscaling simulation with COSMO-CLM (HoKliSim-De) is assessed for offshore wind farm planning in the German Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the North Sea. The quality is assessed using in-situ wind measurements at the research platform FINO1 and satellite-based data of the near-surface wind speed as reference.
Gerd Bürger and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3065–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, 2023
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Our subject is a new catalogue of radar-based heavy rainfall events (CatRaRE) over Germany and how it relates to the concurrent atmospheric circulation. We classify reanalyzed daily atmospheric fields of convective indices according to CatRaRE, using conventional statistical and more recent machine learning algorithms, and apply them to present and future atmospheres. Increasing trends are projected for CatRaRE-type probabilities, from reanalyzed as well as from simulated atmospheric fields.
Olivia Linke, Johannes Quaas, Finja Baumer, Sebastian Becker, Jan Chylik, Sandro Dahlke, André Ehrlich, Dörthe Handorf, Christoph Jacobi, Heike Kalesse-Los, Luca Lelli, Sina Mehrdad, Roel A. J. Neggers, Johannes Riebold, Pablo Saavedra Garfias, Niklas Schnierstein, Matthew D. Shupe, Chris Smith, Gunnar Spreen, Baptiste Verneuil, Kameswara S. Vinjamuri, Marco Vountas, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9963–9992, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9963-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9963-2023, 2023
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Lapse rate feedback (LRF) is a major driver of the Arctic amplification (AA) of climate change. It arises because the warming is stronger at the surface than aloft. Several processes can affect the LRF in the Arctic, such as the omnipresent temperature inversion. Here, we compare multimodel climate simulations to Arctic-based observations from a large research consortium to broaden our understanding of these processes, find synergy among them, and constrain the Arctic LRF and AA.
Thomas Schwitalla, Lisa Jach, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Kirsten Warrach-Sagi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1725, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1725, 2023
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During the last decades, Europe experienced severe drought and heatwave conditions. To provide an overview, how land-surface conditions shape land-atmosphere (LA) coupling, the interannual LA coupling strength variability for the summer seasons 1991–2022 is investigated. The results clearly reflect the ongoing climate change by a shift in the coupling relationships toward reinforced heating and drying by the land surface under heatwave and drought conditions.
Marie Hundhausen, Hendrik Feldmann, Natalie Laube, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2873–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, 2023
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Using a convection-permitting regional climate ensemble, the magnitude of heat waves (HWs) over Germany is projected to increase by 26 % (100 %) in a 2 °C (3 °C) warmer world. The increase is strongest in late summer, relatively homogeneous in space, and accompanied by increasing variance in HW length. Tailored parameters to climate adaptation to heat revealed dependency on major landscapes, and a nonlinear, exponential increase for parameters characterizing strong heat stress is expected.
Elena Xoplaki, Florian Ellsäßer, Jens Grieger, Katrin M. Nissen, Joaquim Pinto, Markus Augenstein, Ting-Chen Chen, Hendrik Feldmann, Petra Friederichs, Daniel Gliksman, Laura Goulier, Karsten Haustein, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Florian Knutzen, Stefan Kollet, Jürg Luterbacher, Niklas Luther, Susanna Mohr, Christoph Mudersbach, Christoph Müller, Efi Rousi, Felix Simon, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Svenja Szemkus, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Odysseas Vlachopoulos, and Frederik Wolf
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1460, 2023
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Europe is regularly affected by compound events and natural hazards that occur simultaneously or with a temporal lag and are connected with disproportional impacts. Within the interdisciplinary project climXtreme (https://climxtreme.net/) we investigate the interplay of these events, their characteristics and changes, intensity, frequency and uncertainties in the past, present and future, as well as the associated impacts on different socio-economic sectors in Germany and Central Europe.
Johannes Riebold, Andy Richling, Uwe Ulbrich, Henning Rust, Tido Semmler, and Dörthe Handorf
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 663–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-663-2023, 2023
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Arctic sea ice loss might impact the atmospheric circulation outside the Arctic and therefore extremes over mid-latitudes. Here, we analyze model experiments to initially assess the influence of sea ice loss on occurrence frequencies of large-scale circulation patterns. Some of these detected circulation changes can be linked to changes in occurrences of European temperature extremes. Compared to future global temperature increases, the sea-ice-related impacts are however of secondary relevance.
Maik Heistermann, Till Francke, Lena Scheiffele, Katya Dimitrova Petrova, Christian Budach, Martin Schrön, Benjamin Trost, Daniel Rasche, Andreas Güntner, Veronika Döpper, Michael Förster, Markus Köhli, Lisa Angermann, Nikolaos Antonoglou, Manuela Zude-Sasse, and Sascha E. Oswald
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3243–3262, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3243-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3243-2023, 2023
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Cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) allows for the non-invasive estimation of root-zone soil water content (SWC). The signal observed by a single CRNS sensor is influenced by the SWC in a radius of around 150 m (the footprint). Here, we have put together a cluster of eight CRNS sensors with overlapping footprints at an agricultural research site in north-east Germany. That way, we hope to represent spatial SWC heterogeneity instead of retrieving just one average SWC estimate from a single sensor.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Leonardo Aragão, Lisa Bernini, Stavros Dafis, Benjamin Doiteau, Helena Flocas, Suzanne L. Gray, Alexia Karwat, John Kouroutzoglou, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Claudia Pasquero, Platon Patlakas, María Ángeles Picornell, Federico Porcù, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Marco Reale, Malcolm J. Roberts, Hadas Saaroni, Dor Sandler, Enrico Scoccimarro, Michael Sprenger, and Baruch Ziv
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 639–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, 2023
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Cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs) have different approaches in defining and tracking cyclone centers. This leads to disagreements on extratropical cyclone climatologies. We present a new approach that combines tracks from individual CDTMs to produce new composite tracks. These new tracks are shown to correspond to physically meaningful systems with distinctive life stages.
Hao Luo, Johannes Quaas, and Yong Han
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8169–8186, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8169-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8169-2023, 2023
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Clouds exhibit a wide range of vertical structures with varying microphysical and radiative properties. We show a global survey of spatial distribution, vertical extent and radiative effect of various classified cloud vertical structures using joint satellite observations from the new CCCM datasets during 2007–2010. Moreover, the long-term trends in CVSs are investigated based on different CMIP6 future scenarios to capture the cloud variations with different, increasing anthropogenic forcings.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Hendrik Feldmann, Etor Lucio-Eceiza, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 543–565, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-543-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-543-2023, 2023
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We evaluate convection-permitting modelling (CPM) simulations for the greater Alpine area to assess its added value compared to a 25 km resolution. A new method for severe precipitation detection is used, and the associated synoptic weather types are considered. Our results document the added value of CPM for precipitation representation with higher intensities, better rank correlation, better hit rates, and an improved amount and structure, but with an overestimation of the rates.
Daniel Gliksman, Paul Averbeck, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Valeri Goldberg, Jens Grieger, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Alexia Karwat, Florian Knutzen, Hilke S. Lentink, Rike Lorenz, Deborah Niermann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Ronald Queck, Astrid Ziemann, and Christian L. E. Franzke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2171–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, 2023
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Wind and storms are a major natural hazard and can cause severe economic damage and cost human lives. Hence, it is important to gauge the potential impact of using indices, which potentially enable us to estimate likely impacts of storms or other wind events. Here, we review basic aspects of wind and storm generation and provide an extensive overview of wind impacts and available indices. This is also important to better prepare for future climate change and corresponding changes to winds.
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anne F. Van Loon, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Svetlana Agafonova, Amir AghaKouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Cavus, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Natalia Frolova, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego A. Guzmán, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ionita, Maxim Kharlamov, Dao Nguyen Khoi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Hong-Yi Li, Maria Carmen LLasat, David Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew McKenzie, Alfonso Mejia, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Huynh Thi Thao Nguyen, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Nguyen Hong Quan, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md Shibly Sadik, Nivedita Sairam, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2009–2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, 2023
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As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management. We present a dataset containing data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The dataset enables comparative analyses and allows detailed context-specific assessments. Additionally, it supports the testing of socio-hydrological models.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 427–447, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-427-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-427-2023, 2023
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In this study, we analyse the generic atmospheric processes of very extreme, 100-year precipitation events in large central European river catchments and the corresponding differences to less extreme events, based on a large time series (~1200 years) of simulated but realistic daily precipitation events from the ECMWF. Depending on the catchment, either dynamical mechanisms or thermodynamic conditions or a combination of both distinguish 100-year events from less extreme precipitation events.
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, 2023
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The objective of this study was to perform a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. A combination of favorable large-scale conditions and locally dry soils were related with the intensity and persistence of the events. We also showed that such extremes have become more likely due to anthropogenic climate change and might occur almost every year under +2 °C of global warming.
Charles G. Gertler, Paul A. O'Gorman, and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 361–379, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-361-2023, 2023
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The relationship between the time-mean state of the atmosphere and aspects of atmospheric circulation drives general understanding of the atmospheric circulation. Here, we present new techniques to calculate local properties of the time-mean atmosphere and relate those properties to aspects of extratropical circulation with important implications for weather. This relationship should help connect changes to the atmosphere, such as under global warming, to changes in midlatitude weather.
Samuel Kwakye, Heike Kalesse-Los, Maximilian Maahn, Patric Seifert, Roel van Klink, Christian Wirth, and Johannes Quaas
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2023-69, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2023-69, 2023
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Insect numbers in the atmosphere can be calculated using polarimetric weather radar but they have to be identified and separated from other echoes, especially weather phenomena. Here, the separation is demonstrated using three machine-learning algorithms and insect count data from suction traps and the nature of radar measurements of different radar echoes is revealed. Random forest is the best separating algorithm and insect echoes radar measurements are distinct.
Patrick Ludwig, Florian Ehmele, Mário J. Franca, Susanna Mohr, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Uwe Ehret, Hendrik Feldmann, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Michael Kunz, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1287–1311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, 2023
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Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring countries. The event was among the five heaviest precipitation events of the past 70 years in Germany, and the river discharges exceeded by far the statistical 100-year return values. Simulations of the event under future climate conditions revealed a strong and non-linear effect on flood peaks: for +2 K global warming, an 18 % increase in rainfall led to a 39 % increase of the flood peak in the Ahr river.
Katharina Lengfeld, Paul Voit, Frank Kaspar, and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1227–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1227-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1227-2023, 2023
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Estimating the severity of a rainfall event based on the damage caused is easy but highly depends on the affected region. A less biased measure for the extremeness of an event is its rarity combined with its spatial extent. In this brief communication, we investigate the sensitivity of such measures to the underlying dataset and highlight the importance of considering multiple spatial and temporal scales using the devastating rainfall event in July 2021 in central Europe as an example.
Jianqi Zhao, Xiaoyan Ma, Johannes Quaas, and Hailing Jia
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-331, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-331, 2023
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We improve the ability of WRF-Chem model to simulate aerosol-cloud physical and chemical processes by coupling a spectral-bin cloud microphysics scheme and online aerosol module, and consequently explore the aerosol-cloud interactions over eastern China and its adjacent ocean in boreal winter. Our study highlights the differences in aerosol-cloud interactions between land and ocean, precipitation clouds and non-precipitation clouds, and differentiates and quantifies their underlying mechanisms.
Thulasi Vishwanath Harish, Nivedita Sairam, Liang Emlyn Yang, Matthias Garschagen, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1125–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, 2023
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Coastal Asian cities are becoming more vulnerable to flooding. In this study we analyse the data collected from flood-prone houses in Ho Chi Minh City to identify what motivates the households to adopt flood precautionary measures. The results revealed that educating the households about the available flood precautionary measures and communicating the flood protection measures taken by the government encourage the households to adopt measures without having to experience multiple flood events.
Annegret H. Thieken, Philip Bubeck, Anna Heidenreich, Jennifer von Keyserlingk, Lisa Dillenardt, and Antje Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 973–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, 2023
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In July 2021 intense rainfall caused devastating floods in western Europe with 184 fatalities in the German federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia (NW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), calling their warning system into question. An online survey revealed that 35 % of respondents from NW and 29 % from RP did not receive any warning. Many of those who were warned did not expect severe flooding, nor did they know how to react. The study provides entry points for improving Germany's warning system.
Marine Bonazzola, Hélène Chepfer, Po-Lun Ma, Johannes Quaas, David M. Winker, Artem Feofilov, and Nick Schutgens
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1359–1377, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1359-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1359-2023, 2023
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Aerosol has a large impact on climate. Using a lidar aerosol simulator ensures consistent comparisons between modeled and observed aerosol. We present a lidar aerosol simulator that applies a cloud masking and an aerosol detection threshold. We estimate the lidar signals that would be observed at 532 nm by the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization overflying the atmosphere predicted by a climate model. Our comparison at the seasonal timescale shows a discrepancy in the Southern Ocean.
Omar Seleem, Georgy Ayzel, Axel Bronstert, and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 809–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-809-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-809-2023, 2023
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Data-driven models are becoming more of a surrogate that overcomes the limitations of the computationally expensive 2D hydrodynamic models to map urban flood hazards. However, the model's ability to generalize outside the training domain is still a major challenge. We evaluate the performance of random forest and convolutional neural networks to predict urban floodwater depth and investigate their transferability outside the training domain.
Susanna Mohr, Uwe Ehret, Michael Kunz, Patrick Ludwig, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Mário J. Franca, Christian Gattke, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Marc Scheibel, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 525–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, 2023
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The flood event in July 2021 was one of the most severe disasters in Europe in the last half century. The objective of this two-part study is a multi-disciplinary assessment that examines the complex process interactions in different compartments, from meteorology to hydrological conditions to hydro-morphological processes to impacts on assets and environment. In addition, we address the question of what measures are possible to generate added value to early response management.
Edmund P. Meredith, Uwe Ulbrich, and Henning W. Rust
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 851–867, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-851-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-851-2023, 2023
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Cell-tracking algorithms allow for the study of properties of a convective cell across its lifetime and, in particular, how these respond to climate change. We investigated whether the design of the algorithm can affect the magnitude of the climate-change signal. The algorithm's criteria for identifying a cell were found to have a strong impact on the warming response. The sensitivity of the warming response to different algorithm settings and cell types should thus be fully explored.
Florian Späth, Verena Rajtschan, Tobias K. D. Weber, Shehan Morandage, Diego Lange, Syed Saqlain Abbas, Andreas Behrendt, Joachim Ingwersen, Thilo Streck, and Volker Wulfmeyer
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 12, 25–44, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-12-25-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-12-25-2023, 2023
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Important topics in land–atmosphere feedback research are water and energy balances and heterogeneities of fluxes at the land surface and in the atmosphere. To target these questions, the Land–Atmosphere Feedback Observatory (LAFO) has been installed in Germany. The instrumentation allows for comprehensive measurements from the bedrock to the troposphere. The LAFO observation strategy aims for simultaneous measurements in all three compartments: atmosphere, soil and land surface, and vegetation.
Lisa Schielicke and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1439–1459, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1439-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1439-2022, 2022
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Projected future heatwaves in many European regions will be even warmer than the mean increase in summer temperature suggests. To identify the underlying thermodynamic and dynamic processes, we compare Lagrangian backward trajectories of airstreams associated with heatwaves in two time slices (1991–2000 and 2091–2100) in a large single-model ensemble (CEMS-LE). We find stronger future descent associated with adiabatic warming in some regions and increased future diabatic heating in most regions.
Sjoukje Y. Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Faron S. Anslow, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Robert Vautard, Dim Coumou, Kristie L. Ebi, Julie Arrighi, Roop Singh, Maarten van Aalst, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, Michael Wehner, Wenchang Yang, Sihan Li, Dominik L. Schumacher, Mathias Hauser, Rémy Bonnet, Linh N. Luu, Flavio Lehner, Nathan Gillett, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Chris Rodell, Roland B. Stull, Rosie Howard, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1689–1713, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022, 2022
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In June 2021, the Pacific Northwest of the US and Canada saw record temperatures far exceeding those previously observed. This attribution study found such a severe heat wave would have been virtually impossible without human-induced climate change. Assuming no nonlinear interactions, such events have become at least 150 times more common, are about 2 °C hotter and will become even more common as warming continues. Therefore, adaptation and mitigation are urgently needed to prepare society.
Dánnell Quesada-Chacón, Klemens Barfus, and Christian Bernhofer
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7353–7370, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7353-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7353-2022, 2022
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We improved the performance of past perfect prognosis statistical downscaling methods while achieving full model repeatability with GPU-calculated deep learning models using the TensorFlow, climate4R, and VALUE frameworks. We employed the ERA5 reanalysis as predictors and ReKIS (eastern Ore Mountains, Germany, 1 km resolution) as precipitation predictand, while incorporating modern deep learning architectures. The achieved repeatability is key to accomplish further milestones with deep learning.
Johannes Quaas, Hailing Jia, Chris Smith, Anna Lea Albright, Wenche Aas, Nicolas Bellouin, Olivier Boucher, Marie Doutriaux-Boucher, Piers M. Forster, Daniel Grosvenor, Stuart Jenkins, Zbigniew Klimont, Norman G. Loeb, Xiaoyan Ma, Vaishali Naik, Fabien Paulot, Philip Stier, Martin Wild, Gunnar Myhre, and Michael Schulz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12221–12239, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022, 2022
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Pollution particles cool climate and offset part of the global warming. However, they are washed out by rain and thus their effect responds quickly to changes in emissions. We show multiple datasets to demonstrate that aerosol emissions and their concentrations declined in many regions influenced by human emissions, as did the effects on clouds. Consequently, the cooling impact on the Earth energy budget became smaller. This change in trend implies a relative warming.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2791–2805, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2791-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2791-2022, 2022
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To better understand how the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events (HPEs) will change with changing climate and to adapt disaster risk management accordingly, we have to quantify the extremeness of HPEs in a reliable way. We introduce the xWEI (cross-scale WEI) and show that this index can reveal important characteristics of HPEs that would otherwise remain hidden. We conclude that the xWEI could be a valuable instrument in both disaster risk management and research.
Andries Jan de Vries, Franziska Aemisegger, Stephan Pfahl, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8863–8895, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8863-2022, 2022
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The Earth's water cycle contains the common H2O molecule but also the less abundant, heavier HDO. We use their different physical properties to study tropical ice clouds in model simulations of the West African monsoon. Isotope signals reveal different processes through which ice clouds form and decay in deep-convective and widespread cirrus. Previously observed variations in upper-tropospheric vapour isotopes are explained by microphysical processes in convective updraughts and downdraughts.
Ovid O. Krüger, Bruna A. Holanda, Sourangsu Chowdhury, Andrea Pozzer, David Walter, Christopher Pöhlker, Maria Dolores Andrés Hernández, John P. Burrows, Christiane Voigt, Jos Lelieveld, Johannes Quaas, Ulrich Pöschl, and Mira L. Pöhlker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8683–8699, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8683-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8683-2022, 2022
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The abrupt reduction in human activities during the first COVID-19 lockdown created unprecedented atmospheric conditions. We took the opportunity to quantify changes in black carbon (BC) as a major anthropogenic air pollutant. Therefore, we measured BC on board a research aircraft over Europe during the lockdown and compared the results to measurements from 2017. With model simulations we account for different weather conditions and find a lockdown-related decrease in BC of 41 %.
Mahnoosh Haghighatnasab, Jan Kretzschmar, Karoline Block, and Johannes Quaas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8457–8472, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8457-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8457-2022, 2022
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The impact of aerosols emitted by the Holuhraun volcanic eruption on liquid clouds was assessed from a pair of cloud-system-resolving simulations along with satellite retrievals. Inside and outside the plume were compared in terms of their statistical distributions. Analyses indicated enhancement for cloud droplet number concentration inside the volcano plume in model simulations and satellite retrievals, while there was on average a small effect on both liquid water path and cloud fraction.
Hailing Jia, Johannes Quaas, Edward Gryspeerdt, Christoph Böhm, and Odran Sourdeval
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7353–7372, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7353-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7353-2022, 2022
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Aerosol–cloud interaction is the most uncertain component of the anthropogenic forcing of the climate. By combining satellite and reanalysis data, we show that the strength of the Twomey effect (S) increases remarkably with vertical velocity. Both the confounding effect of aerosol–precipitation interaction and the lack of vertical co-location between aerosol and cloud are found to overestimate S, whereas the retrieval biases in aerosol and cloud appear to underestimate S.
Michael Dietze, Rainer Bell, Ugur Ozturk, Kristen L. Cook, Christoff Andermann, Alexander R. Beer, Bodo Damm, Ana Lucia, Felix S. Fauer, Katrin M. Nissen, Tobias Sieg, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1845–1856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022, 2022
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The flood that hit Europe in July 2021, specifically the Eifel, Germany, was more than a lot of fast-flowing water. The heavy rain that fell during the 3 d before also caused the slope to fail, recruited tree trunks that clogged bridges, and routed debris across the landscape. Especially in the upper parts of the catchments the flood was able to gain momentum. Here, we discuss how different landscape elements interacted and highlight the challenges of holistic future flood anticipation.
Brunella Bonaccorso, Carmelo Cammalleri, Athanasios Loukas, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1857–1862, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1857-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1857-2022, 2022
Maik Heistermann, Heye Bogena, Till Francke, Andreas Güntner, Jannis Jakobi, Daniel Rasche, Martin Schrön, Veronika Döpper, Benjamin Fersch, Jannis Groh, Amol Patil, Thomas Pütz, Marvin Reich, Steffen Zacharias, Carmen Zengerle, and Sascha Oswald
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2501–2519, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2501-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2501-2022, 2022
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This paper presents a dense network of cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) to measure spatio-temporal soil moisture patterns during a 2-month campaign in the Wüstebach headwater catchment in Germany. Stationary, mobile, and airborne CRNS technology monitored the root-zone water dynamics as well as spatial heterogeneity in the 0.4 km2 area. The 15 CRNS stations were supported by a hydrogravimeter, biomass sampling, and a wireless soil sensor network to facilitate holistic hydrological analysis.
Po-Lun Ma, Bryce E. Harrop, Vincent E. Larson, Richard B. Neale, Andrew Gettelman, Hugh Morrison, Hailong Wang, Kai Zhang, Stephen A. Klein, Mark D. Zelinka, Yuying Zhang, Yun Qian, Jin-Ho Yoon, Christopher R. Jones, Meng Huang, Sheng-Lun Tai, Balwinder Singh, Peter A. Bogenschutz, Xue Zheng, Wuyin Lin, Johannes Quaas, Hélène Chepfer, Michael A. Brunke, Xubin Zeng, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Samson Hagos, Zhibo Zhang, Hua Song, Xiaohong Liu, Michael S. Pritchard, Hui Wan, Jingyu Wang, Qi Tang, Peter M. Caldwell, Jiwen Fan, Larry K. Berg, Jerome D. Fast, Mark A. Taylor, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Shaocheng Xie, Philip J. Rasch, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2881–2916, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2881-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2881-2022, 2022
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An alternative set of parameters for E3SM Atmospheric Model version 1 has been developed based on a tuning strategy that focuses on clouds. When clouds in every regime are improved, other aspects of the model are also improved, even though they are not the direct targets for calibration. The recalibrated model shows a lower sensitivity to anthropogenic aerosols and surface warming, suggesting potential improvements to the simulated climate in the past and future.
Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, Franziska Teubler, and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 429–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022, 2022
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Strong winds caused by extratropical cyclones represent a costly hazard for European countries. Here, based on CESM-LENS coupled climate simulations, we show that future changes of such strong winds are characterized by an increased magnitude and extended footprint southeast of the cyclone center. This intensification is related to a combination of increased diabatic heating and changes in upper-level wave dynamics.
Lisa-Ann Kautz, Olivia Martius, Stephan Pfahl, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, Pedro M. Sousa, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 305–336, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022, 2022
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Atmospheric blocking is associated with stationary, self-sustaining and long-lasting high-pressure systems. They can cause or at least influence surface weather extremes, such as heat waves, cold spells, heavy precipitation events, droughts or wind extremes. The location of the blocking determines where and what type of extreme event will occur. These relationships are also important for weather prediction and may change due to global warming.
Animesh K. Gain, Yves Bühler, Pascal Haegeli, Daniela Molinari, Mario Parise, David J. Peres, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kai Schröter, Ricardo M. Trigo, María Carmen Llasat, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 985–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, 2022
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To mark the 20th anniversary of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), an interdisciplinary and international journal dedicated to the public discussion and open-access publication of high-quality studies and original research on natural hazards and their consequences, we highlight 11 key publications covering major subject areas of NHESS that stood out within the past 20 years.
Tobias K. D. Weber, Joachim Ingwersen, Petra Högy, Arne Poyda, Hans-Dieter Wizemann, Michael Scott Demyan, Kristina Bohm, Ravshan Eshonkulov, Sebastian Gayler, Pascal Kremer, Moritz Laub, Yvonne Funkiun Nkwain, Christian Troost, Irene Witte, Tim Reichenau, Thomas Berger, Georg Cadisch, Torsten Müller, Andreas Fangmeier, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Thilo Streck
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1153–1181, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1153-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1153-2022, 2022
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Presented are measurement results from six agricultural fields operated by local farmers in southwestern Germany over 9 years. Six eddy-covariance stations measuring water, energy, and carbon fluxes between the vegetated soil surface and the atmosphere provided the backbone of the measurement sites and were supplemented by extensive soil and vegetation state monitoring. The dataset is ideal for testing process models characterizing fluxes at the vegetated soil surface and in the atmosphere.
Florian Ehmele, Lisa-Ann Kautz, Hendrik Feldmann, Yi He, Martin Kadlec, Fanni D. Kelemen, Hilke S. Lentink, Patrick Ludwig, Desmond Manful, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 677–692, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-677-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-677-2022, 2022
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For various applications, it is crucial to have profound knowledge of the frequency, severity, and risk of extreme flood events. Such events are characterized by very long return periods which observations can not cover. We use a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations as input for a hydrological model. Precipitation data were post-processed to reduce systematic errors. The representation of precipitation and discharge is improved, and estimates of long return periods become robust.
Till Francke, Maik Heistermann, Markus Köhli, Christian Budach, Martin Schrön, and Sascha E. Oswald
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 11, 75–92, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-11-75-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-11-75-2022, 2022
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Cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) is a non-invasive tool for measuring hydrogen pools like soil moisture, snow, or vegetation. This study presents a directional shielding approach, aiming to measure in specific directions only. The results show that non-directional neutron transport blurs the signal of the targeted direction. For typical instruments, this does not allow acceptable precision at a daily time resolution. However, the mere statistical distinction of two rates is feasible.
Robert Polzin, Annette Müller, Henning Rust, Peter Névir, and Péter Koltai
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 29, 37–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-37-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-37-2022, 2022
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In this study, a recent algorithmic framework called Direct Bayesian Model Reduction (DBMR) is applied which provides a scalable probability-preserving identification of reduced models directly from data. The stochastic method is tested in a meteorological application towards a model reduction to latent states of smaller scale convective activity conditioned on large-scale atmospheric flow.
Noelia Otero, Oscar E. Jurado, Tim Butler, and Henning W. Rust
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1905–1919, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1905-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1905-2022, 2022
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Surface ozone and temperature are strongly dependent and their extremes might be exacerbated by underlying climatological drivers, such as atmospheric blocking. Using an observational data set, we measure the dependence structure between ozone and temperature under the influence of atmospheric blocking. Blocks enhanced the probability of occurrence of compound ozone and temperature extremes over northwestern and central Europe, leading to greater health risks.
Annegret H. Thieken, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Heidi Kreibich, and Meike Müller
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 165–185, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-165-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-165-2022, 2022
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Various floods hit Germany recently. While there was a river flood with some dike breaches in 2013, flooding in 2016 resulted directly from heavy rainfall, causing overflowing drainage systems in urban areas and destructive flash floods in steep catchments. Based on survey data, we analysed how residents coped with these different floods. We observed significantly different flood impacts, warnings, behaviour and recovery, offering entry points for tailored risk communication and support.
Lisa Jach, Thomas Schwitalla, Oliver Branch, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Volker Wulfmeyer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 109–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-109-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-109-2022, 2022
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The land surface can influence the occurrence of local rainfall through different feedback mechanisms. In Europe, this happens most frequently in summer. Here, we examine how differences in atmospheric temperature and moisture change where and how often the land surface can influence rainfall. The results show that the differences barely move the region of strong surface influence over Scandinavia and eastern Europe, but they can change the frequency of coupling events.
Valeria Cigala, Giulia Roder, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 85–96, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-85-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-85-2022, 2022
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Non-male scientists constitute a minority in the geoscience professional environment, and they are underrepresented in disaster risk reduction planning. So far the international agenda has failed to effectively promote gender inclusion in disaster policy, preventing non-male scientists from career development and recognition. Here we share the thoughts, experiences, and priorities of women and non-binary scientists as a starting point to expand the discourse and promote intersectional research.
Matthew W. Christensen, Andrew Gettelman, Jan Cermak, Guy Dagan, Michael Diamond, Alyson Douglas, Graham Feingold, Franziska Glassmeier, Tom Goren, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Edward Gryspeerdt, Ralph Kahn, Zhanqing Li, Po-Lun Ma, Florent Malavelle, Isabel L. McCoy, Daniel T. McCoy, Greg McFarquhar, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Sandip Pal, Anna Possner, Adam Povey, Johannes Quaas, Daniel Rosenfeld, Anja Schmidt, Roland Schrödner, Armin Sorooshian, Philip Stier, Velle Toll, Duncan Watson-Parris, Robert Wood, Mingxi Yang, and Tianle Yuan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 641–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-641-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-641-2022, 2022
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Trace gases and aerosols (tiny airborne particles) are released from a variety of point sources around the globe. Examples include volcanoes, industrial chimneys, forest fires, and ship stacks. These sources provide opportunistic experiments with which to quantify the role of aerosols in modifying cloud properties. We review the current state of understanding on the influence of aerosol on climate built from the wide range of natural and anthropogenic laboratories investigated in recent decades.
Felix S. Fauer, Jana Ulrich, Oscar E. Jurado, and Henning W. Rust
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6479–6494, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6479-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6479-2021, 2021
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Extreme rainfall events are modeled in this study for different timescales. A new parameterization of the dependence between extreme values and their timescale enables our model to estimate extremes on very short (1 min) and long (5 d) timescales simultaneously. We compare different approaches of modeling this dependence and find that our new model improves performance for timescales between 2 h and 2 d without affecting model performance on other timescales.
Chang-Hwan Park, Aaron Berg, Michael H. Cosh, Andreas Colliander, Andreas Behrendt, Hida Manns, Jinkyu Hong, Johan Lee, Runze Zhang, and Volker Wulfmeyer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6407–6420, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6407-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6407-2021, 2021
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In this study, we proposed an inversion of the dielectric mixing model for a 50 Hz soil sensor for agricultural organic soil. This model can reflect the variability of soil organic matter (SOM) in wilting point and porosity, which play a critical role in improving the accuracy of SM estimation, using a dielectric-based soil sensor. The results of statistical analyses demonstrated a higher performance of the new model than the factory setting probe algorithm.
Jana Ulrich, Felix S. Fauer, and Henning W. Rust
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6133–6149, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6133-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6133-2021, 2021
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The characteristics of extreme precipitation on different timescales as well as in different seasons are relevant information, e.g., for designing hydrological structures or managing water supplies. Therefore, our aim is to describe these characteristics simultaneously within one model. We find similar characteristics for short extreme precipitation at all considered stations in Germany but pronounced regional differences with respect to the seasonality of long-lasting extreme events.
Silke Trömel, Clemens Simmer, Ulrich Blahak, Armin Blanke, Sabine Doktorowski, Florian Ewald, Michael Frech, Mathias Gergely, Martin Hagen, Tijana Janjic, Heike Kalesse-Los, Stefan Kneifel, Christoph Knote, Jana Mendrok, Manuel Moser, Gregor Köcher, Kai Mühlbauer, Alexander Myagkov, Velibor Pejcic, Patric Seifert, Prabhakar Shrestha, Audrey Teisseire, Leonie von Terzi, Eleni Tetoni, Teresa Vogl, Christiane Voigt, Yuefei Zeng, Tobias Zinner, and Johannes Quaas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17291–17314, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17291-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17291-2021, 2021
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The article introduces the ACP readership to ongoing research in Germany on cloud- and precipitation-related process information inherent in polarimetric radar measurements, outlines pathways to inform atmospheric models with radar-based information, and points to remaining challenges towards an improved fusion of radar polarimetry and atmospheric modelling.
Samira Khodayar, Silvio Davolio, Paolo Di Girolamo, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Emmanouil Flaounas, Nadia Fourrie, Keun-Ok Lee, Didier Ricard, Benoit Vie, Francois Bouttier, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, and Veronique Ducrocq
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17051–17078, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17051-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17051-2021, 2021
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Heavy precipitation (HP) constitutes a major meteorological threat in the western Mediterranean. Every year, recurrent events affect the area with fatal consequences. Despite this being a well-known issue, open questions still remain. The understanding of the underlying mechanisms and the modeling representation of the events must be improved. In this article we present the most recent lessons learned from the Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX).
Fabienne Dahinden, Franziska Aemisegger, Heini Wernli, Matthias Schneider, Christopher J. Diekmann, Benjamin Ertl, Peter Knippertz, Martin Werner, and Stephan Pfahl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16319–16347, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, 2021
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We use high-resolution numerical isotope modelling and Lagrangian backward trajectories to identify moisture transport pathways and governing physical and dynamical processes that affect the free-tropospheric humidity and isotopic variability over the eastern subtropical North Atlantic. Furthermore, we conduct a thorough isotope modelling validation with aircraft and remote-sensing observations of water vapour isotopes.
Carola Detring, Annette Müller, Lisa Schielicke, Peter Névir, and Henning W. Rust
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 927–952, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-927-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-927-2021, 2021
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Stationary, long-lasting blocked weather patterns can lead to extreme conditions. Within this study the temporal evolution of the occurrence probability is analyzed, and the onset, decay and transition probabilities of blocking within the past 30 years are modeled. Using Markov models combined with logistic regression, we found large changes in summer, where the probability of transitions to so-called Omega blocks increases strongly, while the unblocked state becomes less probable.
Zhihong Zhuo, Ingo Kirchner, Stephan Pfahl, and Ulrich Cubasch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13425–13442, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13425-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13425-2021, 2021
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The impact of volcanic eruptions varies with eruption season and latitude. This study simulated eruptions at different latitudes and in different seasons with a fully coupled climate model. The climate impacts of northern and southern hemispheric eruptions are reversed but are insensitive to eruption season. Results suggest that the regional climate impacts are due to the dynamical response of the climate system to radiative effects of volcanic aerosols and the subsequent regional feedbacks.
Maik Heistermann, Till Francke, Martin Schrön, and Sascha E. Oswald
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4807–4824, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4807-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4807-2021, 2021
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Cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) is a powerful technique for retrieving representative estimates of soil moisture in footprints extending over hectometres in the horizontal and decimetres in the vertical. This study, however, demonstrates the potential of CRNS to obtain spatio-temporal patterns of soil moisture beyond isolated footprints. To that end, we analyse data from a unique observational campaign that featured a dense network of more than 20 neutron detectors in an area of just 1 km2.
Bjorn Stevens, Sandrine Bony, David Farrell, Felix Ament, Alan Blyth, Christopher Fairall, Johannes Karstensen, Patricia K. Quinn, Sabrina Speich, Claudia Acquistapace, Franziska Aemisegger, Anna Lea Albright, Hugo Bellenger, Eberhard Bodenschatz, Kathy-Ann Caesar, Rebecca Chewitt-Lucas, Gijs de Boer, Julien Delanoë, Leif Denby, Florian Ewald, Benjamin Fildier, Marvin Forde, Geet George, Silke Gross, Martin Hagen, Andrea Hausold, Karen J. Heywood, Lutz Hirsch, Marek Jacob, Friedhelm Jansen, Stefan Kinne, Daniel Klocke, Tobias Kölling, Heike Konow, Marie Lothon, Wiebke Mohr, Ann Kristin Naumann, Louise Nuijens, Léa Olivier, Robert Pincus, Mira Pöhlker, Gilles Reverdin, Gregory Roberts, Sabrina Schnitt, Hauke Schulz, A. Pier Siebesma, Claudia Christine Stephan, Peter Sullivan, Ludovic Touzé-Peiffer, Jessica Vial, Raphaela Vogel, Paquita Zuidema, Nicola Alexander, Lyndon Alves, Sophian Arixi, Hamish Asmath, Gholamhossein Bagheri, Katharina Baier, Adriana Bailey, Dariusz Baranowski, Alexandre Baron, Sébastien Barrau, Paul A. Barrett, Frédéric Batier, Andreas Behrendt, Arne Bendinger, Florent Beucher, Sebastien Bigorre, Edmund Blades, Peter Blossey, Olivier Bock, Steven Böing, Pierre Bosser, Denis Bourras, Pascale Bouruet-Aubertot, Keith Bower, Pierre Branellec, Hubert Branger, Michal Brennek, Alan Brewer, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Björn Brügmann, Stefan A. Buehler, Elmo Burke, Ralph Burton, Radiance Calmer, Jean-Christophe Canonici, Xavier Carton, Gregory Cato Jr., Jude Andre Charles, Patrick Chazette, Yanxu Chen, Michal T. Chilinski, Thomas Choularton, Patrick Chuang, Shamal Clarke, Hugh Coe, Céline Cornet, Pierre Coutris, Fleur Couvreux, Susanne Crewell, Timothy Cronin, Zhiqiang Cui, Yannis Cuypers, Alton Daley, Gillian M. Damerell, Thibaut Dauhut, Hartwig Deneke, Jean-Philippe Desbios, Steffen Dörner, Sebastian Donner, Vincent Douet, Kyla Drushka, Marina Dütsch, André Ehrlich, Kerry Emanuel, Alexandros Emmanouilidis, Jean-Claude Etienne, Sheryl Etienne-Leblanc, Ghislain Faure, Graham Feingold, Luca Ferrero, Andreas Fix, Cyrille Flamant, Piotr Jacek Flatau, Gregory R. Foltz, Linda Forster, Iulian Furtuna, Alan Gadian, Joseph Galewsky, Martin Gallagher, Peter Gallimore, Cassandra Gaston, Chelle Gentemann, Nicolas Geyskens, Andreas Giez, John Gollop, Isabelle Gouirand, Christophe Gourbeyre, Dörte de Graaf, Geiske E. de Groot, Robert Grosz, Johannes Güttler, Manuel Gutleben, Kashawn Hall, George Harris, Kevin C. Helfer, Dean Henze, Calvert Herbert, Bruna Holanda, Antonio Ibanez-Landeta, Janet Intrieri, Suneil Iyer, Fabrice Julien, Heike Kalesse, Jan Kazil, Alexander Kellman, Abiel T. Kidane, Ulrike Kirchner, Marcus Klingebiel, Mareike Körner, Leslie Ann Kremper, Jan Kretzschmar, Ovid Krüger, Wojciech Kumala, Armin Kurz, Pierre L'Hégaret, Matthieu Labaste, Tom Lachlan-Cope, Arlene Laing, Peter Landschützer, Theresa Lang, Diego Lange, Ingo Lange, Clément Laplace, Gauke Lavik, Rémi Laxenaire, Caroline Le Bihan, Mason Leandro, Nathalie Lefevre, Marius Lena, Donald Lenschow, Qiang Li, Gary Lloyd, Sebastian Los, Niccolò Losi, Oscar Lovell, Christopher Luneau, Przemyslaw Makuch, Szymon Malinowski, Gaston Manta, Eleni Marinou, Nicholas Marsden, Sebastien Masson, Nicolas Maury, Bernhard Mayer, Margarette Mayers-Als, Christophe Mazel, Wayne McGeary, James C. McWilliams, Mario Mech, Melina Mehlmann, Agostino Niyonkuru Meroni, Theresa Mieslinger, Andreas Minikin, Peter Minnett, Gregor Möller, Yanmichel Morfa Avalos, Caroline Muller, Ionela Musat, Anna Napoli, Almuth Neuberger, Christophe Noisel, David Noone, Freja Nordsiek, Jakub L. Nowak, Lothar Oswald, Douglas J. Parker, Carolyn Peck, Renaud Person, Miriam Philippi, Albert Plueddemann, Christopher Pöhlker, Veronika Pörtge, Ulrich Pöschl, Lawrence Pologne, Michał Posyniak, Marc Prange, Estefanía Quiñones Meléndez, Jule Radtke, Karim Ramage, Jens Reimann, Lionel Renault, Klaus Reus, Ashford Reyes, Joachim Ribbe, Maximilian Ringel, Markus Ritschel, Cesar B. Rocha, Nicolas Rochetin, Johannes Röttenbacher, Callum Rollo, Haley Royer, Pauline Sadoulet, Leo Saffin, Sanola Sandiford, Irina Sandu, Michael Schäfer, Vera Schemann, Imke Schirmacher, Oliver Schlenczek, Jerome Schmidt, Marcel Schröder, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Andrea Sealy, Christoph J. Senff, Ilya Serikov, Samkeyat Shohan, Elizabeth Siddle, Alexander Smirnov, Florian Späth, Branden Spooner, M. Katharina Stolla, Wojciech Szkółka, Simon P. de Szoeke, Stéphane Tarot, Eleni Tetoni, Elizabeth Thompson, Jim Thomson, Lorenzo Tomassini, Julien Totems, Alma Anna Ubele, Leonie Villiger, Jan von Arx, Thomas Wagner, Andi Walther, Ben Webber, Manfred Wendisch, Shanice Whitehall, Anton Wiltshire, Allison A. Wing, Martin Wirth, Jonathan Wiskandt, Kevin Wolf, Ludwig Worbes, Ethan Wright, Volker Wulfmeyer, Shanea Young, Chidong Zhang, Dongxiao Zhang, Florian Ziemen, Tobias Zinner, and Martin Zöger
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4067–4119, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4067-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4067-2021, 2021
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The EUREC4A field campaign, designed to test hypothesized mechanisms by which clouds respond to warming and benchmark next-generation Earth-system models, is presented. EUREC4A comprised roughly 5 weeks of measurements in the downstream winter trades of the North Atlantic – eastward and southeastward of Barbados. It was the first campaign that attempted to characterize the full range of processes and scales influencing trade wind clouds.
Silje Lund Sørland, Roman Brogli, Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Emmanuele Russo, Jonas Van de Walle, Bodo Ahrens, Ivonne Anders, Edoardo Bucchignani, Edouard L. Davin, Marie-Estelle Demory, Alessandro Dosio, Hendrik Feldmann, Barbara Früh, Beate Geyer, Klaus Keuler, Donghyun Lee, Delei Li, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Seung-Ki Min, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Burkhardt Rockel, Christoph Schär, Christian Steger, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5125–5154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, 2021
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We review the contribution from the CLM-Community to regional climate projections following the CORDEX framework over Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia, and Africa. How the model configuration, horizontal and vertical resolutions, and choice of driving data influence the model results for the five domains is assessed, with the purpose of aiding the planning and design of regional climate simulations in the future.
Greg E. Bodeker, Jan Nitzbon, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Stefanie Kremser, Alexander Schwertheim, and Jared Lewis
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3885–3906, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3885-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3885-2021, 2021
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Ozone in Earth's atmosphere has undergone significant changes since first measured systematically from space in the late 1970s. The purpose of the paper is to present a new, spatially filled, global total column ozone climate data record spanning from October 1978 to December 2016. The database is compiled from measurements from 17 different satellite-based instruments where offsets and drifts between the instruments have been corrected using ground-based measurements.
Alexander Pasternack, Jens Grieger, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4335–4355, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4335-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4335-2021, 2021
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Decadal climate ensemble forecasts are increasingly being used to guide adaptation measures. To ensure the applicability of these probabilistic predictions, inherent systematic errors of the prediction system must be adjusted. Since it is not clear which statistical model is optimal for this purpose, we propose a recalibration strategy with a systematic model selection based on non-homogeneous boosting for identifying the most relevant features for both ensemble mean and ensemble spread.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Samiro Khodayar, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 561–580, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-561-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-561-2021, 2021
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The prediction capabilities of GPS, operational (low-resolution) and targeted (high-resolution) radiosondes for data assimilation in a Mediterranean heavy precipitation event at different model resolutions are investigated. The results show that even if GPS provides accurate observations, their lack of vertical information hampers the improvement, demonstrating the need for assimilating radiosondes, where the location and timing of release was more determinant than the vertical resolution.
Guilherme S. Mohor, Annegret H. Thieken, and Oliver Korup
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1599–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1599-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1599-2021, 2021
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We explored differences in the damaging process across different flood types, regions within Germany, and six flood events through a numerical model in which the groups can learn from each other. Differences were found mostly across flood types, indicating the importance of identifying them, but there is great overlap across regions and flood events, indicating either that socioeconomic or temporal information was not well represented or that they are in fact less different within our cases.
Ethan R. Dale, Stefanie Kremser, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Greg E. Bodeker, Leroy J. Bird, Gustavo Olivares, Guy Coulson, Elizabeth Somervell, Woodrow Pattinson, Jonathan Barte, Jan-Niklas Schmidt, Nariefa Abrahim, Adrian J. McDonald, and Peter Kuma
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2053–2075, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2053-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2053-2021, 2021
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MAPM is a project whose goal is to develop a method to infer particulate matter (PM) emissions maps from PM concentration measurements. In support of MAPM, we conducted a winter field campaign in New Zealand. In addition to two types of instruments measuring PM, an array of other meteorological sensors were deployed, measuring temperature and wind speed as well as probing the vertical structure of the lower atmosphere. In this article, we present the measurements taken during this campaign.
Thomas Schwitalla, Hans-Stefan Bauer, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, Thomas Bönisch, and Volker Wulfmeyer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4575–4597, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4575-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4575-2021, 2021
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A prototype of an air quality forecasting system (AQFS) on a turbulence-permitting (TP) horizontal resolution of 50 m is developed. AQFS is based on the WRF-Chem model and uses high-resolution emission data from different pollution sources. A simulation case study of a typical winter day in south Germany serves as a test bed. Results indicate that the complex topography plays an important role for the horizontal and vertical pollution distribution over the Stuttgart metropolitan area.
Oliver Branch, Thomas Schwitalla, Marouane Temimi, Ricardo Fonseca, Narendra Nelli, Michael Weston, Josipa Milovac, and Volker Wulfmeyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1615–1637, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1615-2021, 2021
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Effective numerical weather forecasting is vital in arid regions like the United Arab Emirates where extreme events like heat waves, flash floods, and dust storms are becoming more severe. This study employs a high-resolution simulation with the WRF-NOAHMP model, and the output is compared with seasonal observation data from 50 weather stations. This type of verification is vital to identify model deficiencies and improve forecasting systems for arid regions.
Gustavo Andrei Speckhann, Heidi Kreibich, and Bruno Merz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 731–740, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-731-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-731-2021, 2021
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Dams are an important element of water resources management. Data about dams are crucial for practitioners, scientists, and policymakers. We present the most comprehensive open-access dam inventory for Germany to date. The inventory combines multiple sources of information. It comprises 530 dams with information on name, location, river, start year of construction and operation, crest length, dam height, lake area, lake volume, purpose, dam structure, and building characteristics.
Marco Cerri, Max Steinhausen, Heidi Kreibich, and Kai Schröter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 643–662, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-643-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-643-2021, 2021
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Effective flood management requires information about the potential consequences of flooding. We show how openly accessible data from OpenStreetMap can support the estimation of flood damage for residential buildings. Working with methods of machine learning, the building geometry is used to predict flood damage in combination with information about inundation depth. Our approach makes it easier to transfer models to regions where no detailed data of flood impacts have been observed yet.
Johannes Quaas, Antti Arola, Brian Cairns, Matthew Christensen, Hartwig Deneke, Annica M. L. Ekman, Graham Feingold, Ann Fridlind, Edward Gryspeerdt, Otto Hasekamp, Zhanqing Li, Antti Lipponen, Po-Lun Ma, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Athanasios Nenes, Joyce E. Penner, Daniel Rosenfeld, Roland Schrödner, Kenneth Sinclair, Odran Sourdeval, Philip Stier, Matthias Tesche, Bastiaan van Diedenhoven, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15079–15099, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15079-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15079-2020, 2020
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Anthropogenic pollution particles – aerosols – serve as cloud condensation nuclei and thus increase cloud droplet concentration and the clouds' reflection of sunlight (a cooling effect on climate). This Twomey effect is poorly constrained by models and requires satellite data for better quantification. The review summarizes the challenges in properly doing so and outlines avenues for progress towards a better use of aerosol retrievals and better retrievals of droplet concentrations.
Daniela Molinari, Anna Rita Scorzini, Chiara Arrighi, Francesca Carisi, Fabio Castelli, Alessio Domeneghetti, Alice Gallazzi, Marta Galliani, Frédéric Grelot, Patric Kellermann, Heidi Kreibich, Guilherme S. Mohor, Markus Mosimann, Stephanie Natho, Claire Richert, Kai Schroeter, Annegret H. Thieken, Andreas Paul Zischg, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2997–3017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2997-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2997-2020, 2020
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Flood risk management requires a realistic estimation of flood losses. However, the capacity of available flood damage models to depict real damages is questionable. With a joint effort of eight research groups, the objective of this study was to compare the performances of nine models for the estimation of flood damage to buildings. The comparison provided more objective insights on the transferability of the models and on the reliability of their estimations.
Jan Kretzschmar, Johannes Stapf, Daniel Klocke, Manfred Wendisch, and Johannes Quaas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13145–13165, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13145-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13145-2020, 2020
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This study compares simulations with the ICON model at the kilometer scale to airborne radiation and cloud microphysics observations that have been derived during the ACLOUD aircraft campaign around Svalbard, Norway, in May/June 2017. We find an overestimated surface warming effect of clouds compared to the observations in our setup. This bias was reduced by considering subgrid-scale vertical motion in the activation of cloud condensation nuclei in the two-moment microphysical scheme used.
Martina Krämer, Christian Rolf, Nicole Spelten, Armin Afchine, David Fahey, Eric Jensen, Sergey Khaykin, Thomas Kuhn, Paul Lawson, Alexey Lykov, Laura L. Pan, Martin Riese, Andrew Rollins, Fred Stroh, Troy Thornberry, Veronika Wolf, Sarah Woods, Peter Spichtinger, Johannes Quaas, and Odran Sourdeval
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12569–12608, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12569-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12569-2020, 2020
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To improve the representations of cirrus clouds in climate predictions, extended knowledge of their properties and geographical distribution is required. This study presents extensive airborne in situ and satellite remote sensing climatologies of cirrus and humidity, which serve as a guide to cirrus clouds. Further, exemplary radiative characteristics of cirrus types and also in situ observations of tropical tropopause layer cirrus and humidity in the Asian monsoon anticyclone are shown.
Nico Becker, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2857–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2857-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2857-2020, 2020
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A set of models is developed to forecast hourly probabilities of weather-related road accidents in Germany at the spatial scale of administrative districts. Model verification shows that using precipitation and temperature data leads to the best accident forecasts. Based on weather forecast data we show that skilful predictions of accident probabilities of up to 21 h ahead are possible. The models can be used to issue impact-based warnings, which are relevant for road users and authorities.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez and Samiro Khodayar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2753–2776, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2753-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2753-2020, 2020
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Heavy precipitation causes serious losses and several casualties in the western Mediterranean every year. To predict this phenomenon better, we aim at understanding how the models represent the interaction between atmospheric moisture and precipitation by nudging a 10 min, state-of-the-art GPS data set. We found, for the selected case in autumn 2012, that the improvement in the modelling of precipitation stems from relevant variations of atmospheric instability and humidity above 1.5 km.
Benjamin Fersch, Till Francke, Maik Heistermann, Martin Schrön, Veronika Döpper, Jannis Jakobi, Gabriele Baroni, Theresa Blume, Heye Bogena, Christian Budach, Tobias Gränzig, Michael Förster, Andreas Güntner, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, Mandy Kasner, Markus Köhli, Birgit Kleinschmit, Harald Kunstmann, Amol Patil, Daniel Rasche, Lena Scheiffele, Ulrich Schmidt, Sandra Szulc-Seyfried, Jannis Weimar, Steffen Zacharias, Marek Zreda, Bernd Heber, Ralf Kiese, Vladimir Mares, Hannes Mollenhauer, Ingo Völksch, and Sascha Oswald
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2289–2309, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2289-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2289-2020, 2020
Patric Kellermann, Kai Schröter, Annegret H. Thieken, Sören-Nils Haubrock, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2503–2519, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2503-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2503-2020, 2020
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The flood damage database HOWAS 21 contains object-specific flood damage data resulting from fluvial, pluvial and groundwater flooding. The datasets incorporate various variables of flood hazard, exposure, vulnerability and direct tangible damage at properties from several economic sectors. This paper presents HOWAS 21 and highlights exemplary analyses to demonstrate the use of HOWAS 21 flood damage data.
Christopher W. Frank, Frank Kaspar, Jan D. Keller, Till Adams, Miriam Felkers, Bernd Fischer, Marcus Handte, Pedro José Marrón, Hinrich Paulsen, Markus Neteler, Jochen Schiewe, Marvin Schuchert, Christian Nickel, Richard Wacker, and Richard Figura
Adv. Sci. Res., 17, 183–190, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-183-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-183-2020, 2020
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Access to high quality weather and climate data is crucial for a wide range of societal and economic issues. It allows optimising industrial processes with respect to efficiency. The goal of the research project FAIR is to simplify the information exchange between the DWD and economical players. This paper summarizes the results of the requirement analysis of three use cases and presents the deduced technical architecture and FAIR services aiming at a user-friendly exchange of weather data.
Daniel Steinfeld, Maxi Boettcher, Richard Forbes, and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 405–426, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020, 2020
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The effect of latent heating on atmospheric blocking is investigated using numerical sensitivity experiments. The modification of latent heating in the upstream cyclone has substantial effects on the upper-tropospheric circulation, demonstrating that some blocking systems do not develop at all without upstream latent heating. The results highlight the importance of moist-diabatic processes for the dynamics of prolonged anticyclonic circulation anomalies.
Noelia Otero, Henning W. Rust, and Tim Butler
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-691, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-691, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Surface ozone concentrations are strongly correlated with temperature in summertime. Using long-term measurements, we investigate changes in the observed relationship between ozone and temperature over Germany. We propose a new statistical approach based on Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) to describe ozone production rates as a function of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and temperature. Our results suggest that NOx reductions alone can not explain the changes in the temperature dependence of ozone.
Susanna Mohr, Jannik Wilhelm, Jan Wandel, Michael Kunz, Raphael Portmann, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Manuel Schmidberger, Julian F. Quinting, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 325–348, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-325-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-325-2020, 2020
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We investigated an exceptional thunderstorm episode in 2018, in which atmospheric blocking provided large-scale environmental conditions favouring convection. Furthermore, blocking was accompanied by a high cut-off frequency on its upstream side, which together with filaments of high PV provided the mesoscale setting for deep moist convection. The exceptional persistence of low stability combined with weak wind speed in the mid-troposphere over more than 3 weeks has never been observed before.
Nicolas Bellouin, Will Davies, Keith P. Shine, Johannes Quaas, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Lindsay Lee, Leighton Regayre, Guy Brasseur, Natalia Sudarchikova, Idir Bouarar, Olivier Boucher, and Gunnar Myhre
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1649–1677, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1649-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1649-2020, 2020
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Quantifying the imbalance in the Earth's energy budget caused by human activities is important to understand and predict climate changes. This study presents new estimates of the imbalance caused by changes in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, ozone, and particles of pollution. Over the period 2003–2017, the overall imbalance has been positive, indicating that the climate system has gained energy and will warm further.
Frank Kaspar, Deborah Niermann, Michael Borsche, Stephanie Fiedler, Jan Keller, Roland Potthast, Thomas Rösch, Thomas Spangehl, and Birger Tinz
Adv. Sci. Res., 17, 115–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-115-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-115-2020, 2020
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Reanalyses are long-term meteorological datasets that are based on numerical weather prediction models and the assimilation of historic observations. The regional model COSMO of Germany’s national meteorological service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) has been used to develop regional reanalyses with spatial resolution of up to 2 km. In this paper, we provide an overview of evaluation results and application examples at the European and national German level with a focus on renewable energy.
Michael Kunz, Jan Wandel, Elody Fluck, Sven Baumstark, Susanna Mohr, and Sebastian Schemm
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1867–1887, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1867-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1867-2020, 2020
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Severe convective storms are major loss drivers across Europe. We reconstructed several thousand storm tracks from radar reflectivity over a 10-year period for parts of Europe. The tracks were additionally combined with hail reports, reanalysis data, and front detections based on ERA-Interim (ECMWF Reanalysis). It is found that frontal hailstorms on average produce larger hailstones and have longer tracks and that wind shear is important not only for the hail diameter but also for track length.
Andreas Behrendt, Volker Wulfmeyer, Christoph Senff, Shravan Kumar Muppa, Florian Späth, Diego Lange, Norbert Kalthoff, and Andreas Wieser
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 3221–3233, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-3221-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-3221-2020, 2020
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In order to understand how solar radiation energy hitting the ground is distributed into the atmosphere, we use a new combination of laser-based remote-sensing techniques to quantify these energy fluxes up to heights of more than 1 km above ground. Before, similar techniques had already been presented for determining the energy flux component regarding the exchange of humidity but not the warm air itself. Now, we show that this can also be measured by remote sensing with low uncertainties.
Georgy Ayzel, Tobias Scheffer, and Maik Heistermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2631–2644, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2631-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2631-2020, 2020
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In this study, we present RainNet, a deep convolutional neural network for radar-based precipitation nowcasting, which was trained to predict continuous precipitation intensities at a lead time of 5 min. RainNet significantly outperformed the benchmark models at all lead times up to 60 min. Yet, an undesirable property of RainNet predictions is the level of spatial smoothing. Obviously, RainNet learned an optimal level of smoothing to produce a nowcast at 5 min lead time.
Florian Ehmele, Lisa-Ann Kautz, Hendrik Feldmann, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 469–490, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-469-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-469-2020, 2020
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This study presents a large novel data set of climate model simulations for central Europe covering the years 1900–2028 at a 25 km resolution. The focus is on intensive areal precipitation values. The data set is validated against observations using different statistical approaches. The results reveal an adequate quality in a statistical sense as well as some long-term variability with phases of increased and decreased heavy precipitation. The predictions of the near future show continuity.
Iris Thurnherr, Anna Kozachek, Pascal Graf, Yongbiao Weng, Dimitri Bolshiyanov, Sebastian Landwehr, Stephan Pfahl, Julia Schmale, Harald Sodemann, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Alessandro Toffoli, Heini Wernli, and Franziska Aemisegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 5811–5835, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5811-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5811-2020, 2020
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Stable water isotopes (SWIs) are tracers of moist atmospheric processes. We analyse the impact of large- to small-scale atmospheric processes and various environmental conditions on the variability of SWIs using ship-based SWI measurement in water vapour from the Atlantic and Southern Ocean. Furthermore, simultaneous measurements of SWIs at two altitudes are used to illustrate the potential of such measurements for future research to estimate sea spray evaporation and turbulent moisture fluxes.
Montserrat Costa-Surós, Odran Sourdeval, Claudia Acquistapace, Holger Baars, Cintia Carbajal Henken, Christa Genz, Jonas Hesemann, Cristofer Jimenez, Marcel König, Jan Kretzschmar, Nils Madenach, Catrin I. Meyer, Roland Schrödner, Patric Seifert, Fabian Senf, Matthias Brueck, Guido Cioni, Jan Frederik Engels, Kerstin Fieg, Ksenia Gorges, Rieke Heinze, Pavan Kumar Siligam, Ulrike Burkhardt, Susanne Crewell, Corinna Hoose, Axel Seifert, Ina Tegen, and Johannes Quaas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 5657–5678, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5657-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5657-2020, 2020
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The impact of anthropogenic aerosols on clouds is a key uncertainty in climate change. This study analyses large-domain simulations with a new high-resolution model to investigate the differences in clouds between 1985 and 2013 comparing multiple observational datasets. The differences in aerosol and in cloud droplet concentrations are clearly detectable. For other quantities, the detection and attribution proved difficult, despite a substantial impact on the Earth's energy budget.
Philipp Zschenderlein, Stephan Pfahl, Heini Wernli, and Andreas H. Fink
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 191–206, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-191-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-191-2020, 2020
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We analyse the formation of upper-tropospheric anticyclones connected to European surface heat waves. Tracing air masses backwards from these anticyclones, we found that trajectories are diabatically heated in two branches, either by North Atlantic cyclones or by convection closer to the heat wave anticyclone. The first branch primarily affects the onset of the anticyclone, while the second branch is more relevant for the maintenance. Our results are relevant for heat wave predictions.
Philip J. Ward, Veit Blauhut, Nadia Bloemendaal, James E. Daniell, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Melanie J. Duncan, Robert Emberson, Susanna F. Jenkins, Dalia Kirschbaum, Michael Kunz, Susanna Mohr, Sanne Muis, Graeme A. Riddell, Andreas Schäfer, Thomas Stanley, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Hessel C. Winsemius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1069–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1069-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1069-2020, 2020
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We review the scientific literature on natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale. In doing so, we examine similarities and differences between the approaches taken across the different hazards and identify potential ways in which different hazard communities can learn from each other. Finally, we discuss opportunities for learning from methods and approaches being developed and applied to assess natural hazard risks at more continental or regional scales.
Thomas Schwitalla, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Michael Resch
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1959–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1959-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1959-2020, 2020
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Performing seasonal simulations on horizontal grid resolutions of a few kilometres over the entire globe remains challenging. We demonstrate the added value of simulating large-scale patterns and feedbacks at 3 km resolution compared to a coarser-resolution forecast using the WRF numerical weather model on a latitude-belt domain. Results show an improvement of cloud coverage in the tropics, better representation of teleconnection, and improvements of precipitation patterns in different regions.
Jonas Laudan, Gert Zöller, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 999–1023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-999-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-999-2020, 2020
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The paper focuses on psychological impacts of river floods and flash floods on affected individuals. Since the connection between psychological characteristics and protection motivation is not yet fully understood, potential coherences are investigated with regard to both flood types. As a main result, the frequency of remembering an event seems to be positively connected to a greater willingness to protect oneself, especially if affected by a weaker flood event.
Ayse Duha Metin, Nguyen Viet Dung, Kai Schröter, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Björn Guse, Heidi Kreibich, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 967–979, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-967-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-967-2020, 2020
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For effective risk management, flood risk should be properly assessed. Traditionally, risk is assessed by making the assumption of invariant flow or loss probabilities (the chance that a given discharge or loss is exceeded) within the river catchment during a single flood event. However, in reality, flooding is more severe in some regions than others. This study indicates the importance of representing the spatial dependence of flood peaks and damage for risk assessments.
Claudia Unglaub, Karoline Block, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Odran Sourdeval, and Johannes Quaas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 2407–2418, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2407-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2407-2020, 2020
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In cloud research, it is necessary to classify clouds. The World Meteorological Organization proposes distinguishing stratiform and cumuliform clouds in three altitude layers. The paper explains why previous approaches to classify clouds fail for many applications and proposes a new classification on the basis of new approaches for satellite retrievals to derive cloud-base height, in combination with cloud inhomogeneity. It is demonstrated that this discriminates cloud characteristics well.
Edouard L. Davin, Diana Rechid, Marcus Breil, Rita M. Cardoso, Erika Coppola, Peter Hoffmann, Lisa L. Jach, Eleni Katragkou, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Kai Radtke, Mario Raffa, Pedro M. M. Soares, Giannis Sofiadis, Susanna Strada, Gustav Strandberg, Merja H. Tölle, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Volker Wulfmeyer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 183–200, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-183-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-183-2020, 2020
Irene Crisologo and Maik Heistermann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 645–659, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-645-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-645-2020, 2020
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Archives of radar observations often suffer from errors, one of which is calibration. However, it is possible to correct them after the fact by using satellite radars as a calibration reference. We propose improvements to this calibration method by considering factors that affect the data quality, such that poor quality data gets filtered out in the bias calculation by assigning weights. We also show that the bias can be interpolated in time even for days when there are no satellite data.
Dominik Paprotny, Heidi Kreibich, Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles, Paweł Terefenko, and Kai Schröter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 323–343, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-323-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-323-2020, 2020
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Houses and their contents in Europe are worth trillions of euros, resulting in high losses from natural hazards. Hence, risk assessments need to reliably estimate the size and value of houses, including the value of durable goods kept inside. In this work we show how openly available or open datasets can be used to predict the size of individual residential buildings. Further, we provide standardized monetary values of houses and contents per square metre of floor space for 30 countries.
Johannes Mülmenstädt, Edward Gryspeerdt, Marc Salzmann, Po-Lun Ma, Sudhakar Dipu, and Johannes Quaas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 15415–15429, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15415-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15415-2019, 2019
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The effect of aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs) on Earth's energy budget continues to be highly uncertain. We decompose the effective radiative forcing by ACIs (ERFaci) into the instantaneous forcing due to anthropogenic increases in the number of cloud droplets and fast responses of cloud properties to the droplet number perturbation in the ECHAM–HAMMOZ aerosol–climate model. This decomposition maps onto the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report analysis of ERFaci more directly than previous work.
Mareike Schuster, Jens Grieger, Andy Richling, Thomas Schartner, Sebastian Illing, Christopher Kadow, Wolfgang A. Müller, Holger Pohlmann, Stephan Pfahl, and Uwe Ulbrich
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 901–917, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-901-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-901-2019, 2019
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Decadal climate predictions are valuable to society as they allow us to estimate climate conditions several years in advance. We analyze the latest version of the German MiKlip prediction system (https://www.fona-miklip.de) and assess the effect of the model resolution on the skill of the system. The increase in the resolution of the system reduces the bias and significantly improves the forecast skill for North Atlantic extratropical winter dynamics for lead times of two to five winters.
Emmanuele Russo, Ingo Kirchner, Stephan Pfahl, Martijn Schaap, and Ulrich Cubasch
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5229–5249, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5229-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5229-2019, 2019
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This is an investigation of COSMO-CLM 5.0 sensitivity for the CORDEX Central Asia domain, with the main goal of evaluating general model performances for the area, proposing a model optimal configuration to be used in projection studies.
Results show that the model seems to be particularly sensitive to those parameterizations that deal with soil and surface features and that could positively affect the repartition of incoming radiation.
Cristina Primo, Fanni D. Kelemen, Hendrik Feldmann, Naveed Akhtar, and Bodo Ahrens
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5077–5095, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5077-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5077-2019, 2019
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The frequency of extreme events has changed, having a direct impact on human lives. Regional climate models help us to predict these regional climate changes. This work presents an atmosphere–ocean coupled regional climate model over the European domain, including three marginal seas: the Mediterranean, North, and Baltic Sea. We run a simulation for the complete 20th century with a spatial resolution of about 25 km to show that the system is stable and the benefit of coupling.
Jacob Schacht, Bernd Heinold, Johannes Quaas, John Backman, Ribu Cherian, Andre Ehrlich, Andreas Herber, Wan Ting Katty Huang, Yutaka Kondo, Andreas Massling, P. R. Sinha, Bernadett Weinzierl, Marco Zanatta, and Ina Tegen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 11159–11183, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11159-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11159-2019, 2019
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The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of Earth. Black carbon (BC) aerosol contributes to this Arctic amplification by direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects while distributed in air or deposited on snow and ice. The aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAM is used to estimate direct aerosol radiative effect (DRE). Airborne and near-surface BC measurements are used to evaluate the model and give an uncertainty range for the burden and DRE of Arctic BC caused by different emission inventories.
Jan Kretzschmar, Marc Salzmann, Johannes Mülmenstädt, and Johannes Quaas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 10571–10589, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10571-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10571-2019, 2019
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This study aims to explore Arctic cloud properties in the atmospheric circulation model ECHAM6. We compare cloud properties in the model to satellite observations using a satellite simulator and show that ECHAM6 overestimates low-level liquid-containing clouds. In sensitivity studies, we show that this bias can be related to cloud microphysics and surface fluxes.
Lisa Hannak, Karsten Friedrich, Florian Imbery, and Frank Kaspar
Adv. Sci. Res., 16, 175–183, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-175-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-175-2019, 2019
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In order to analyze the impact on long time series by the transition from manual to automatic sunshine duration devices, parallel measurements of German climate reference stations are used. The different measurement principles (glass sphere and photodiode) cause systematic differences between the observations. With a linear regression model (used to adjust the automatic measurements) we want to prevent breaks in long time series of daily sunshine duration.
Hailing Jia, Xiaoyan Ma, Johannes Quaas, Yan Yin, and Tom Qiu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 8879–8896, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8879-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8879-2019, 2019
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We systematically assess how and to what extent satellite retrieval biases may affect correlations, as well as explore the underlying physical mechanisms. It is noted that the retrieval biases of both cloud and aerosol can result in a serious overestimation of the slope of CER–AI. Positive correlations more likely to occur in the case of drier cloud top and stronger turbulence in clouds, implying entrainment mixing might be a possible physical interpretation for such a positive CER–AI slope.
Frank Kaspar, Michael Borsche, Uwe Pfeifroth, Jörg Trentmann, Jaqueline Drücke, and Paul Becker
Adv. Sci. Res., 16, 119–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-119-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-119-2019, 2019
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In this study, we assess balancing effects between photovoltaics and wind energy. On average, the seasonal cycles complement each other in Germany as well as in Europe. The frequency of events with a risk of low electricity generation is analyzed. The results illustrate that the number of such events is reduced when offshore regions are included, or when a combined system of PV and wind energy is considered. A European-wide analysis also leads to a distinct reduction of such events.
Youssef Wehbe, Marouane Temimi, Michael Weston, Naira Chaouch, Oliver Branch, Thomas Schwitalla, Volker Wulfmeyer, Xiwu Zhan, Jicheng Liu, and Abdulla Al Mandous
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1129–1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1129-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1129-2019, 2019
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The work addresses the need for reliable precipitation forecasts in hyper-arid environments through state-of-the-art hydro-meteorological modeling. Accounting for land–atmosphere interactions in the applied model is shown to improve the accuracy of precipitation output. The chain of events controlling the soil moisture–precipitation feedback are diagnosed and verified by in situ observations and satellite data.
Keun-Ok Lee, Franziska Aemisegger, Stephan Pfahl, Cyrille Flamant, Jean-Lionel Lacour, and Jean-Pierre Chaboureau
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7487–7506, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7487-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7487-2019, 2019
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Our study is the first study to investigate the potential benefit of stable water isotopes (SWIs) in the context of a heavy precipitation event in the Mediterranean. As such, our study provides a proof of concept of the usefulness of SWI data to understand the variety of origins and moisture processes associated with air masses feeding the convection over southern Italy.
Frank Kaspar, Frank Kratzenstein, and Andrea K. Kaiser-Weiss
Adv. Sci. Res., 16, 75–83, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-75-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-75-2019, 2019
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During recent years, Germany’s national meteorological service has significantly expanded the open access to its climate observations. To improve the interactive and user-friendly access to the data, a new data portal has been developed. The portal serves a variety of user requirements that result from the broad range of applications of DWD’s climate data. The focus of the recent developments was on improved access to German station data.
Bojan Škerlak, Stephan Pfahl, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6535–6549, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6535-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6535-2019, 2019
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Upper-level fronts are often associated with the rapid transport of stratospheric air to the lower troposphere, leading to significantly enhanced ozone concentrations. This paper considers the multi-scale nature that is needed to bring stratospheric air down to the surface. The final transport step to the surface can be related to frontal zones and the associated vertical winds or to near-horizontal tracer transport followed by entrainment into a growing planetary boundary layer.
Robin Noyelle, Uwe Ulbrich, Nico Becker, and Edmund P. Meredith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 941–955, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-941-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-941-2019, 2019
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This paper investigates the formation of the Mediterranean hurricane that developed between Balearic Islands and Sardinia in October 1996, with a particular focus on the influence of sea surface temperature. We show that increased sea surface temperatures lead to greater probabilities of appearance and a greater strength of the resulting hurricane, suggesting that the processes for Mediterranean hurricanes at steady state are very similar to tropical cyclones.
Edward Gryspeerdt, Tom Goren, Odran Sourdeval, Johannes Quaas, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Sudhakar Dipu, Claudia Unglaub, Andrew Gettelman, and Matthew Christensen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 5331–5347, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5331-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5331-2019, 2019
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The liquid water path (LWP) is the strongest control on cloud albedo, such that a small change in LWP can have a large radiative impact. By changing the droplet number concentration (Nd) aerosols may be able to change the LWP, but the sign and magnitude of the effect is unclear. This work uses satellite data to investigate the relationship between Nd and LWP at a global scale and in response to large aerosol perturbations, suggesting that a strong decrease in LWP at high Nd may be overestimated.
Georgy Ayzel, Maik Heistermann, and Tanja Winterrath
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1387–1402, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1387-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1387-2019, 2019
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How much will it rain within the next hour? To answer this question, we developed rainymotion – an open source Python software library for precipitation nowcasting. In our benchmark experiments, including a state-of-the-art operational model, rainymotion demonstrated its ability to deliver timely and reliable nowcasts for a broad range of rainfall events. This way, rainymotion can serve as a baseline solution in the field of precipitation nowcasting.
Mark Reyers, Hendrik Feldmann, Sebastian Mieruch, Joaquim G. Pinto, Marianne Uhlig, Bodo Ahrens, Barbara Früh, Kameswarrao Modali, Natalie Laube, Julia Moemken, Wolfgang Müller, Gerd Schädler, and Christoph Kottmeier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 171–187, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-171-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-171-2019, 2019
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In this study, the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system is evaluated. This system has been established to deliver highly resolved forecasts for the timescale of 1 to 10 years for Europe. Evidence of the general potential for regional decadal predictability for the variables temperature, precipitation, and wind speed is provided, but the performance of the prediction system depends on region, variable, and system generation.
Christoph Böhm, Odran Sourdeval, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Johannes Quaas, and Susanne Crewell
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 1841–1860, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-1841-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-1841-2019, 2019
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The cloud base height (CBH) is important for air traffic, for describing the energy budget of the Earth and for other applications. Ground-based CBH measurements are only available for individual sites and mostly limited to land. Satellites are a powerful tool for global coverage. While the cloud top height is derived operationally, the derivation of CBH from space is more difficult as the clouds hide their base. Here, we present a method to retrieve the CBH from multi-angle satellite data.
Heidi Kreibich, Thomas Thaler, Thomas Glade, and Daniela Molinari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 551–554, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-551-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-551-2019, 2019
Maik Renner, Claire Brenner, Kaniska Mallick, Hans-Dieter Wizemann, Luigi Conte, Ivonne Trebs, Jianhui Wei, Volker Wulfmeyer, Karsten Schulz, and Axel Kleidon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 515–535, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-515-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-515-2019, 2019
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We estimate the phase lag of surface states and heat fluxes to incoming solar radiation at the sub-daily timescale. While evapotranspiration reveals a minor phase lag, the vapor pressure deficit used as input by Penman–Monteith approaches shows a large phase lag. The surface-to-air temperature gradient used by energy balance residual approaches shows a small phase shift in agreement with the sensible heat flux and thus explains the better correlation of these models at the sub-daily timescale.
Pascal Graf, Heini Wernli, Stephan Pfahl, and Harald Sodemann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 747–765, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-747-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-747-2019, 2019
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This article studies the interaction between falling rain and vapour with stable water isotopes. In particular, rain evaporation is relevant for several atmospheric processes, but remains difficult to quantify. A novel framework is introduced to facilitate the interpretation of stable water isotope observations in near-surface vapour and rain. The usefulness of this concept is demonstrated using observations at high time resolution from a cold front. Sensitivities are tested with a simple model.
Johannes Eckstein, Roland Ruhnke, Stephan Pfahl, Emanuel Christner, Christopher Diekmann, Christoph Dyroff, Daniel Reinert, Daniel Rieger, Matthias Schneider, Jennifer Schröter, Andreas Zahn, and Peter Braesicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5113–5133, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5113-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5113-2018, 2018
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We present ICON-ART-Iso, an extension to the global circulation model ICON, which allows for the simulation of the stable isotopologues of water. The main advantage over other isotope-enabled models is its flexible design with respect to the number of tracers simulated. We compare the results of several simulations to measurements of different scale. ICON-ART-Iso is able to reasonably reproduce the measurements. It is a promising tool to aid in the investigation of the atmospheric water cycle.
Johannes Mülmenstädt, Odran Sourdeval, David S. Henderson, Tristan S. L'Ecuyer, Claudia Unglaub, Leonore Jungandreas, Christoph Böhm, Lynn M. Russell, and Johannes Quaas
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 2279–2293, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2279-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2279-2018, 2018
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One of the key pieces of information about a cloud is how high its base is. Unlike cloud top, cloud base is hard to observe from a satellite perspective – the cloud blocks the view. But without using satellites, it is difficult to compile global datasets. Here we describe how we worked around the limitations of a cloud-detecting laser satellite to observe global cloud base heights. This dataset will expand our knowledge of the cloudy atmosphere and its interaction with the planetary surface.
Jordis S. Tradowsky, Gregory E. Bodeker, Richard R. Querel, Peter J. H. Builtjes, and Jürgen Fischer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 2195–2211, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2195-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2195-2018, 2018
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A best-estimate data set of the temperature profile above the atmospheric measurement facility at Lauder, New Zealand, has been developed. This site atmospheric state best estimate (SASBE) combines atmospheric measurements made at two locations and includes an estimate of uncertainty on every data point. The SASBE enhances the value of measurements made by a reference-quality climate observing network and may be used for a variety of purposes in research and education.
Magdalena Uber, Jean-Pierre Vandervaere, Isabella Zin, Isabelle Braud, Maik Heistermann, Cédric Legoût, Gilles Molinié, and Guillaume Nord
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6127–6146, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6127-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6127-2018, 2018
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We investigate how rivers in a flash-flood-prone region in southern France respond to rainfall depending on initial soil moisture. Therefore, high-resolution data of rainfall, river discharge and soil moisture were used. We find that during dry initial conditions, the rivers hardly respond even for heavy rain events, but for wet initial conditions, the response remains unpredictable: for some rain events almost all rainfall is transformed to discharge, whereas this is not the case for others.
Ayse Duha Metin, Nguyen Viet Dung, Kai Schröter, Björn Guse, Heiko Apel, Heidi Kreibich, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3089–3108, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3089-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3089-2018, 2018
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We present a comprehensive sensitivity analysis considering changes along the complete flood risk chain to understand how changes in different drivers affect flood risk. Results show that changes in dike systems or in vulnerability may outweigh changes in often investigated components, such as climate change. Although the specific results are conditional on the case study and assumptions, they highlight the need for a broader consideration of potential drivers of change in a comprehensive way.
Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Heidi Kreibich, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Jeroen Aerts, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Marlies Barendrecht, Paul Bates, Marco Borga, Wouter Botzen, Philip Bubeck, Bruna De Marchi, Carmen Llasat, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Daniela Molinari, Elena Mondino, Johanna Mård, Olga Petrucci, Anna Scolobig, Alberto Viglione, and Philip J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5629–5637, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5629-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5629-2018, 2018
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One common approach to cope with floods is the implementation of structural flood protection measures, such as levees. Numerous scholars have problematized this approach and shown that increasing levels of flood protection can generate a false sense of security and attract more people to the risky areas. We briefly review the literature on this topic and then propose a research agenda to explore the unintended consequences of structural flood protection.
Odran Sourdeval, Edward Gryspeerdt, Martina Krämer, Tom Goren, Julien Delanoë, Armin Afchine, Friederike Hemmer, and Johannes Quaas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 14327–14350, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14327-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14327-2018, 2018
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The number concentration of ice crystals (Ni) is a key cloud property that remains very uncertain due to difficulties in determining it using satellites. This lack of global observational constraints limits our ability to constrain this property in models responsible for predicting future climate. This pair of papers fills this gap by showing and analyzing the first rigorously evaluated global climatology of Ni, leading to new information shedding light on the processes that control high clouds.
Irene Crisologo, Robert A. Warren, Kai Mühlbauer, and Maik Heistermann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 5223–5236, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-5223-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-5223-2018, 2018
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The calibration of ground-based weather radar (GR) can be improved a posteriori by comparing observed GR reflectivity to well-established spaceborne radar platforms (SR), such as TRMM or GPM. Our study shows that the consistency between GR and SR reflectivity measurements can be enhanced by considering the quality of GR data from areas where signals may have been blocked due to the surrounding terrain, and provides an open-source toolset to carry out corresponding analyses.
Noelia Otero, Jana Sillmann, Kathleen A. Mar, Henning W. Rust, Sverre Solberg, Camilla Andersson, Magnuz Engardt, Robert Bergström, Bertrand Bessagnet, Augustin Colette, Florian Couvidat, Cournelius Cuvelier, Svetlana Tsyro, Hilde Fagerli, Martijn Schaap, Astrid Manders, Mihaela Mircea, Gino Briganti, Andrea Cappelletti, Mario Adani, Massimo D'Isidoro, María-Teresa Pay, Mark Theobald, Marta G. Vivanco, Peter Wind, Narendra Ojha, Valentin Raffort, and Tim Butler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 12269–12288, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12269-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12269-2018, 2018
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This paper evaluates the capability of air-quality models to capture the observed relationship between surface ozone concentrations and meteorology over Europe. The air-quality models tended to overestimate the influence of maximum temperature and surface solar radiation. None of the air-quality models captured the strength of the observed relationship between ozone and relative humidity appropriately, underestimating the effect of relative humidity, a key factor in the ozone removal processes.
Edmund P. Meredith, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4183–4200, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4183-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4183-2018, 2018
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Kilometre-scale climate-model data are of great benefit to both hydrologists and end users studying extreme precipitation, though often unavailable due to the computational expense associated with such high-resolution simulations. We develop a method which identifies days with enhanced risk of extreme rainfall over a catchment, so that high-resolution simulations can be performed only when such a risk exists, reducing computational expense by over 90 % while still well capturing the extremes.
Francesca Carisi, Kai Schröter, Alessio Domeneghetti, Heidi Kreibich, and Attilio Castellarin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2057–2079, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2057-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2057-2018, 2018
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By analyzing a comprehensive loss dataset of affected private households after a recent river flood event in northern Italy, we tackle the problem of flood damage estimation in Emilia-Romagna (Italy). We develop empirical uni- and multivariable loss models for the residential sector. Outcomes highlight that the latter seem to outperform the former and, in addition, results show a higher accuracy of univariable models based on local data compared to literature ones derived for different contexts.
Takuya Kawabata, Thomas Schwitalla, Ahoro Adachi, Hans-Stefan Bauer, Volker Wulfmeyer, Nobuhiro Nagumo, and Hiroshi Yamauchi
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2493–2501, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2493-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2493-2018, 2018
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We implemented two observational operators for dual polarimetric radars in two variational data assimilation systems: WRF Var and NHM-4DVAR. The operators consist of a space interpolator and two types of variable converters. The first variable converter emulates polarimetric parameters with model prognostic variables, and the second derives rainwater content from the observed polarimetric parameter. The system worked properly in verification and assimilation tests.
Paul Petersik, Marc Salzmann, Jan Kretzschmar, Ribu Cherian, Daniel Mewes, and Johannes Quaas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8589–8599, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8589-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8589-2018, 2018
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Our study presents the first estimate of RFari using a global atmospheric model with a parameterization for subgrid-scale variability in RH that is consistent with the assumptions in the model. We find that the revision has a strong influence on the simulated radiative forcing (~ 31 %). In addition, we examine its effects on optical properties of the atmosphere and find an increase in AOD by about 7.8 %.
Georgy Ayzel and Alexander Izhitskiy
Proc. IAHS, 379, 151–158, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-151-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-151-2018, 2018
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Presented paper is our first step in developing a geoscientific stack of models for an assessment of the Small Aral Sea basin current hydrological conditions within the interdisciplinary SMASHI project (smashiproject.github.io). Based on coupling state-of-the-art physically-based hydrological and machine learning models we have developed the skillful model for the Syr Darya river runoff prediction. This result is the key to understanding water balance trends in vulnerable Aral Sea region.
Yeugeniy M. Gusev, Olga N. Nasonova, Evgeny E. Kovalev, and Georgy V. Ayzel
Proc. IAHS, 379, 293–300, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-293-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-293-2018, 2018
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Possible changes in various characteristics of annual river runoff (mean values, standard deviations, frequency of extreme annual runoff) up to 2100 were studied using the land surface model SWAP and meteorological projections simulated by five GCMs according to four RCP scenarios. Obtained results has shown that changes in climatic runoff are different (both in magnitude and sign) for the river basins located in different regions of the planet due to differences in natural (primarily climatic).
Olga N. Nasonova, Yeugeniy M. Gusev, Evgeny E. Kovalev, and Georgy V. Ayzel
Proc. IAHS, 379, 139–144, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-139-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-139-2018, 2018
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Projections of climate induced changes in streamflow of 11 large-scale rivers located in five continents were modeled up to 2100 using meteorological projections simulated by five global circulation models (GCMs) for four climatic scenarios. Contribution of different sources of uncertainties into a total uncertainty of river runoff projections was analyzed. It was found that contribution of GCMs into the total uncertainty is, on the average, nearly twice larger than that of climatic scenarios.
Marlies Holkje Barendrecht, Alberto Viglione, Heidi Kreibich, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Bruno Merz, and Günter Blöschl
Proc. IAHS, 379, 193–198, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-193-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-193-2018, 2018
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The aim of this paper is to assess whether a Socio-Hydrological model can be calibrated to data artificially generated from it. This is not trivial because the model is highly nonlinear and it is not clear what amount of data would be needed for calibration. We demonstrate that, using Bayesian inference, the parameters of the model can be estimated quite accurately from relatively few data, which could be available in real case studies.
Stefanie Kremser, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Henning W. Rust, and Greg E. Bodeker
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 3021–3029, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-3021-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-3021-2018, 2018
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We investigate the feasibility of quantifying the difference in biases of two instrument types (i.e. radiosondes) by flying the old and new instruments on alternating days, so-called interlacing, to statistically derive the systematic biases between the instruments. While it is in principle possible to estimate the difference between two instrument biases from interlaced measurements, the number of required interlaced flights is very large for reasonable autocorrelation coefficient values.
Edward Gryspeerdt, Johannes Quaas, Tom Goren, Daniel Klocke, and Matthias Brueck
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6157–6169, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6157-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6157-2018, 2018
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Cirrus clouds can form by a variety of mechanisms, such as orographic uplift, through convective systems or through large-scale rising motions. In this work, an automated classification of cirrus clouds based on satellite and reanalysis data is presented to separate cirrus by these different formation mechanisms. The classification provides information on the ice origin and cloud-scale updraughts that could not be determined using satellite or reanalysis data alone.
Rui Figueiredo, Kai Schröter, Alexander Weiss-Motz, Mario L. V. Martina, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1297–1314, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1297-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1297-2018, 2018
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Flood loss modelling is subject to large uncertainty that is often neglected. Most models are deterministic, and large disparities exist among them. Adopting a single model may lead to inaccurate loss estimates and sub-optimal decision-making. This paper proposes the use of multi-model ensembles to address such issues. We demonstrate that this can be a simple and pragmatic approach to obtain more accurate loss estimates and reliable probability distributions of model uncertainty.
Stefan Liersch, Julia Tecklenburg, Henning Rust, Andreas Dobler, Madlen Fischer, Tim Kruschke, Hagen Koch, and Fred Fokko Hattermann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2163–2185, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2163-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2163-2018, 2018
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Application-oriented regional impact studies require accurate simulations of future climate variables and water availability. We analyse the quality of global and regional climate projections and discuss potentials of correction methods that partly overcome this quality issue. The model ensemble used in this study projects increasing average annual discharges and a shift in seasonal patterns, with decreasing discharges in June and July and increasing discharges from August to November.
Kai Schröter, Daniela Molinari, Michael Kunz, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 963–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-963-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-963-2018, 2018
Marina Dütsch, Stephan Pfahl, Miro Meyer, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1653–1669, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1653-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1653-2018, 2018
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Atmospheric processes are imprinted in the concentrations of stable water isotopes. Therefore, isotopes can be used to gain insight into these processes and improve our understanding of the water cycle. In this study, we present a new method that quantitatively shows which atmospheric processes influence isotope concentrations in near-surface water vapour over Europe. We found that the most important processes are evaporation from the ocean, evapotranspiration from land, and turbulent mixing.
Alexander Pasternack, Jonas Bhend, Mark A. Liniger, Henning W. Rust, Wolfgang A. Müller, and Uwe Ulbrich
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 351–368, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-351-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-351-2018, 2018
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We propose a decadal forecast recalibration strategy (DeFoReSt) which simultaneously adjusts unconditional and conditional bias, as well as the ensemble spread while considering the typical setting of decadal predictions, i.e., model drift and a climate trend. We apply DeFoReSt to decadal toy model data and surface temperature forecasts from the MiKlip system and find consistent improvements in forecast quality compared with a simple calibration of the lead-time-dependent systematic errors.
Christoph Ritschel, Uwe Ulbrich, Peter Névir, and Henning W. Rust
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6501–6517, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6501-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6501-2017, 2017
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A stochastic model for precipitation is used to simulate an observed precipitation series; it is compared to the original series in terms of intensity–duration frequency curves. Basis for the latter curves is a parametric model for the duration dependence of the underlying extreme value model allowing a consistent estimation of one single duration-dependent distribution using all duration series simultaneously. The stochastic model reproduces the curves except for very rare extreme events.
Jonas Laudan, Viktor Rözer, Tobias Sieg, Kristin Vogel, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2163–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2163-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2163-2017, 2017
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The flash flood in Braunsbach, Germany, in May 2016 was a severe and rather unfamiliar event which caused high monetary losses and heavy damage to buildings. Between 7 and 8 June we investigated all affected houses and conducted damage assessment to gain insights into the damage driving factors of those events. We conclude that the damage driving factors are complex and also differ partly from those of riverine floods, pointing out the need for further research.
Armin Geisinger, Andreas Behrendt, Volker Wulfmeyer, Jens Strohbach, Jochen Förstner, and Roland Potthast
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 4705–4726, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-4705-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-4705-2017, 2017
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A new backscatter lidar forward operator for an aerosol-chemistry-transport model is presented which allows for a quantitative comparison of model output and backscatter lidar measurements from existing networks with unprecedented detail. By applying the forward operator, aerosol distribution model simulations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption could be compared both quantitatively and qualitatively to measurements of the automated ceilometer lidar network in Germany.
Heidi Kreibich, Meike Müller, Kai Schröter, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2075–2092, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2075-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2075-2017, 2017
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Early warning is essential for protecting people and mitigating damage in case of flood events. To gain more knowledge, surveys were taken after the 2002 and the 2013 floods in Germany. Results show that early warning and preparedness improved substantially. However, there is still room for further improvement, which needs to be triggered mainly by effective risk and emergency communication.
Berry Boessenkool, Gerd Bürger, and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1623–1629, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1623-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1623-2017, 2017
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Rainfall is more intense at high temperatures than in cooler weather, as can be seen in summer thunder storms. The relationship between temperature and rainfall intensity seems to invert at very high temperatures, however. There are some possible meteorological explanations, but we propose that part of the reason might be the low number of observations, due to which the actually possible values are underestimated. We propose a better way to estimate high quantiles from small datasets.
Matthieu Spekkers, Viktor Rözer, Annegret Thieken, Marie-Claire ten Veldhuis, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1337–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1337-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1337-2017, 2017
Maik Heistermann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3455–3461, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3455-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3455-2017, 2017
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