Brief Communication: Investigating trends in European hailstorm damage using CMIP6-DAMIP climate models

Abstract. Warming seas around Europe have been driving recent upward trends in hailstorm severity. Therefore, learning more about changes to sea temperatures can give insights into hail climate too. Here, we use the DAMIP (Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project) set of climate model experiments to explore how external forcings have modified Mediterranean temperatures. Climate models indicate external forcings caused most of the multidecadal changes in modern times, with anthropogenic aerosols explaining the cool period from about 1900 to the late 1970s, and greenhouse gas increases mainly responsible for the rapid 0.5 K/decade warming of the Mediterranean since then. Current trends in anthropogenic forcing are expected to continue warming seas which suggests European hailstorm risk will keep rising.