Articles | Volume 22, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1233-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1233-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Apr 2022
Research article |
| 07 Apr 2022
| 07 Apr 2022
Evaluating and ranking Southeast Asia's exposure to explosive volcanic hazards
Susanna F. Jenkins
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Earth Observatory of Singapore, Asian School of the Environment,
Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 639754, Singapore
Earth Observatory of Singapore, Asian School of the Environment,
Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 639754, Singapore
now at: Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva,
Switzerland
George T. Williams
Earth Observatory of Singapore, Asian School of the Environment,
Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 639754, Singapore
now at: Extreme Event Solutions, Verisk, Singapore, Singapore
Josh L. Hayes
Earth Observatory of Singapore, Asian School of the Environment,
Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 639754, Singapore
now at: GNS Science, P.O. Box 30368, Lower Hutt, 5040, New Zealand
Eleanor Tennant
Earth Observatory of Singapore, Asian School of the Environment,
Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 639754, Singapore
Qingyuan Yang
Earth Observatory of Singapore, Asian School of the Environment,
Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 639754, Singapore
Vanesa Burgos
Earth Observatory of Singapore, Asian School of the Environment,
Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 639754, Singapore
Elinor S. Meredith
Earth Observatory of Singapore, Asian School of the Environment,
Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 639754, Singapore
Geoffrey A. Lerner
Earth Observatory of Singapore, Asian School of the Environment,
Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 639754, Singapore
Magfira Syarifuddin
Earth Observatory of Singapore, Asian School of the Environment,
Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 639754, Singapore
now at: State Agriculture Polytechnic of Kupang, Jalan Prof. Herman
Yohanes, Kupang, 85228, Indonesia
Andrea Verolino
Earth Observatory of Singapore, Asian School of the Environment,
Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 639754, Singapore
Related authors
Andrea Verolino, Su Fen Wee, Susanna F. Jenkins, Fidel Costa, and Adam D. Switzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1203–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1203-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1203-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Submarine volcanic eruptions represent the majority of eruptions taking place on Earth. Still, they are vastly understudied worldwide. Here we compile a new dataset and assess the morphology, depth, and height of submarine volcanoes in Southeast Asia and its surroundings to understand their hazard-exposure potential in the region. This study will serve as a stepping stone for future quantitative hazard assessments from submarine eruptions in Southeast Asia and neighbouring countries.
Sébastien Biass, Susanna F. Jenkins, William H. Aeberhard, Pierre Delmelle, and Thomas Wilson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2829–2855, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2829-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2829-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a methodology that combines big Earth observation data and interpretable machine learning to revisit the impact of past volcanic eruptions recorded in archives of multispectral satellite imagery. Using Google Earth Engine and dedicated numerical modelling, we revisit and constrain processes controlling vegetation vulnerability to tephra fallout following the 2011 eruption of Cordón Caulle volcano, illustrating how this approach can inform the development of risk-reduction policies.
Constance Ting Chua, Adam D. Switzer, Anawat Suppasri, Linlin Li, Kwanchai Pakoksung, David Lallemant, Susanna F. Jenkins, Ingrid Charvet, Terence Chua, Amanda Cheong, and Nigel Winspear
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1887–1908, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1887-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1887-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Port industries are extremely vulnerable to coastal hazards such as tsunamis. Despite their pivotal role in local and global economies, there has been little attention paid to tsunami impacts on port industries. For the first time, tsunami damage data are being extensively collected for port structures and catalogued into a database. The study also provides fragility curves which describe the probability of damage exceedance for different port industries given different tsunami intensities.
Philip J. Ward, Veit Blauhut, Nadia Bloemendaal, James E. Daniell, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Melanie J. Duncan, Robert Emberson, Susanna F. Jenkins, Dalia Kirschbaum, Michael Kunz, Susanna Mohr, Sanne Muis, Graeme A. Riddell, Andreas Schäfer, Thomas Stanley, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Hessel C. Winsemius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1069–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1069-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1069-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We review the scientific literature on natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale. In doing so, we examine similarities and differences between the approaches taken across the different hazards and identify potential ways in which different hazard communities can learn from each other. Finally, we discuss opportunities for learning from methods and approaches being developed and applied to assess natural hazard risks at more continental or regional scales.
Andrea Verolino, Su Fen Wee, Susanna F. Jenkins, Fidel Costa, and Adam D. Switzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1203–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1203-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1203-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Submarine volcanic eruptions represent the majority of eruptions taking place on Earth. Still, they are vastly understudied worldwide. Here we compile a new dataset and assess the morphology, depth, and height of submarine volcanoes in Southeast Asia and its surroundings to understand their hazard-exposure potential in the region. This study will serve as a stepping stone for future quantitative hazard assessments from submarine eruptions in Southeast Asia and neighbouring countries.
Maria-Paz Reyes-Hardy, Luigia Sara Di Maio, Lucia Dominguez, Corine Frischknecht, Sébastien Biass, Leticia Guimarães, Amiel Nieto-Torres, Manuela Elissondo, Gabriela Pedreros, Rigoberto Aguilar, Álvaro Amigo, Sebastián García, Pablo Forte, and Costanza Bonadonna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-225, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-225, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes is shared by four countries and groups 59 volcanoes. We identified the ones with the most intense and frequent eruptions (e.g., El Misti and Ubinas), the cities with the highest density of elements at risk (e.g., Arequipa and Mequegua), and the volcanoes with the highest potential impact (e.g., Cerro Blanco and Yucamane). Our study contributes into the prioritization of risk reduction resources, which is crucial for surrounding communities.
Noa Ligot, Patrick Bogaert, Sébastien Biass, Guillaume Lobet, and Pierre Delmelle
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1355–1369, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing risk to crops from volcanic ashfall is critical to protect people who rely on agriculture for their livelihood and food security. Ash retention on crop leaves is a key process in damage initiation. Experiments with tomato and chilli pepper plants revealed that ash retention increases with decreasing ash grain size and is enhanced when leaves are pubescent or their surfaces are wet. We propose a new relationship to quantify potential crop yield loss as a function of ash retention.
Sébastien Biass, Susanna F. Jenkins, William H. Aeberhard, Pierre Delmelle, and Thomas Wilson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2829–2855, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2829-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2829-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a methodology that combines big Earth observation data and interpretable machine learning to revisit the impact of past volcanic eruptions recorded in archives of multispectral satellite imagery. Using Google Earth Engine and dedicated numerical modelling, we revisit and constrain processes controlling vegetation vulnerability to tephra fallout following the 2011 eruption of Cordón Caulle volcano, illustrating how this approach can inform the development of risk-reduction policies.
Costanza Bonadonna, Ali Asgary, Franco Romerio, Tais Zulemyan, Corine Frischknecht, Chiara Cristiani, Mauro Rosi, Chris E. Gregg, Sebastien Biass, Marco Pistolesi, Scira Menoni, and Antonio Ricciardi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1083–1108, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1083-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1083-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Evacuation planning and management represent a key aspect of volcanic crises because they can increase people's protection as well as minimize the potential impacts on the economy, properties and infrastructure of the affected area. We present a simulation tool that assesses the effectiveness of different evacuation scenarios as well as a model to assess the economic impact of evacuation as a function of evacuation duration and starting period using the island of Vulcano (Italy) as a case study.
Constance Ting Chua, Adam D. Switzer, Anawat Suppasri, Linlin Li, Kwanchai Pakoksung, David Lallemant, Susanna F. Jenkins, Ingrid Charvet, Terence Chua, Amanda Cheong, and Nigel Winspear
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1887–1908, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1887-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1887-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Port industries are extremely vulnerable to coastal hazards such as tsunamis. Despite their pivotal role in local and global economies, there has been little attention paid to tsunami impacts on port industries. For the first time, tsunami damage data are being extensively collected for port structures and catalogued into a database. The study also provides fragility curves which describe the probability of damage exceedance for different port industries given different tsunami intensities.
Philip J. Ward, Veit Blauhut, Nadia Bloemendaal, James E. Daniell, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Melanie J. Duncan, Robert Emberson, Susanna F. Jenkins, Dalia Kirschbaum, Michael Kunz, Susanna Mohr, Sanne Muis, Graeme A. Riddell, Andreas Schäfer, Thomas Stanley, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Hessel C. Winsemius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1069–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1069-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1069-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We review the scientific literature on natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale. In doing so, we examine similarities and differences between the approaches taken across the different hazards and identify potential ways in which different hazard communities can learn from each other. Finally, we discuss opportunities for learning from methods and approaches being developed and applied to assess natural hazard risks at more continental or regional scales.
Valérie Baumann, Costanza Bonadonna, Sabatino Cuomo, Mariagiovanna Moscariello, Sebastien Biass, Marco Pistolesi, and Alessandro Gattuso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2421–2449, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2421-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2421-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Lahars are fast-moving mixtures of volcanic debris and water propagating downslope on volcanoes that can be very dangerous for people and property. Identification of lahar source areas and initiation mechanisms is crucial to comprehensive lahar hazard assessment. We present the first rain-triggered lahar susceptibility map for La Fossa volcano (Vulcano, Italy) combining probabilistic tephra modelling, slope-stability modelling, precipitation data, field characterizations, and geotechnical tests.
Manuela Elissondo, Valérie Baumann, Costanza Bonadonna, Marco Pistolesi, Raffaello Cioni, Antonella Bertagnini, Sébastien Biass, Juan-Carlos Herrero, and Rafael Gonzalez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 675–704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-675-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-675-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present a chronological reconstruction of the 2011 eruption of Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano (Chile) which significantly affected the ecosystem and important economic sectors. The comparison with the impact associated with other recent eruptions located in similar areas shows that the regions downwind of the erupting volcanoes suffered similar problems, suggesting that a detailed collection of impact data can be largely beneficial for the development of emergency and risk-mitigation plans.
S. Biass, C. Scaini, C. Bonadonna, A. Folch, K. Smith, and A. Höskuldsson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2265–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2265-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2265-2014, 2014
C. Scaini, S. Biass, A. Galderisi, C. Bonadonna, A. Folch, K. Smith, and A. Höskuldsson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2289–2312, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2289-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2289-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Volcanic Hazards
SEATANI: hazards from seamounts in Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and Andaman and Nicobar Islands (eastern India)
The 2021 La Palma volcanic eruption and its impact on ionospheric scintillation as measured from GNSS reference stations, GNSS-R and GNSS-RO
Lava flow hazard modeling during the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption, Iceland: applications of MrLavaLoba
Assessing long-term tephra fallout hazard in southern Italy from Neapolitan volcanoes
Clustering of eruptive events from high-precision strain signals recorded during the 2020–2022 lava fountains at the Etna volcano (Italy)
Grain size modulates volcanic ash retention on crop foliage and potential yield loss
Characterizing the evolution of mass flow properties and dynamics through analysis of seismic signals: insights from the 18 March 2007 Mt. Ruapehu lake-breakout lahar
Multi-station automatic classification of seismic signatures from the Lascar volcano database
Scenario-based modelling of waves generated by sublacustrine explosive eruptions at Lake Taupō, New Zealand
The characteristics of the 2022 Tonga volcanic tsunami in the Pacific Ocean
Assessing minimum pyroclastic density current mass to impact critical infrastructures: example from Aso caldera (Japan)
Insights into the vulnerability of vegetation to tephra fallouts from interpretable machine learning and big Earth observation data
Risk communication during seismo-volcanic crises: the example of Mayotte, France
Assessing the effectiveness and the economic impact of evacuation: the case of the island of Vulcano, Italy
VADUGS: a neural network for the remote sensing of volcanic ash with MSG/SEVIRI trained with synthetic thermal satellite observations simulated with a radiative transfer model
Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic
A unified probabilistic framework for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting
Quantifying location error to define uncertainty in volcanic mass flow hazard simulations
Lava flow hazard map of Piton de la Fournaise volcano
Thematic vent opening probability maps and hazard assessment of small-scale pyroclastic density currents in the San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe volcanic complex (Nicaragua)
Assessing the impact of explosive eruptions of Fogo volcano (São Miguel, Azores) on the tourism economy
Remote monitoring of seismic swarms and the August 2016 seismic crisis of Brava, Cabo Verde, using array methods
Insights into the recurrent energetic eruptions that drive Awu, among the deadliest volcanoes on Earth
Invited perspectives: The volcanoes of Naples: how can the highest volcanic risk in the world be effectively mitigated?
A volcanic-hazard demonstration exercise to assess and mitigate the impacts of volcanic ash clouds on civil and military aviation
Analysis of properties of the 19 February 2018 volcanic eruption of Mount Sinabung in S5P/TROPOMI and Himawari-8 satellite data
Processes culminating in the 2015 phreatic explosion at Lascar volcano, Chile, evidenced by multiparametric data
Mapping the susceptibility of rain-triggered lahars at Vulcano island (Italy) combining field characterization, geotechnical analysis, and numerical modelling
Statistical theory of probabilistic hazard maps: a probability distribution for the hazard boundary location
Assessing the impact of road segment obstruction on accessibility of critical services in case of a hazard
Exposure-based risk assessment and emergency management associated with the fallout of large clasts at Mount Etna
Structural weakening of the Merapi dome identified by drone photogrammetry after the 2010 eruption
A retrospective study of the pre-eruptive unrest on El Hierro (Canary Islands): implications of seismicity and deformation in the short-term volcanic hazard assessment
An adaptive semi-Lagrangian advection model for transport of volcanic emissions in the atmosphere
Multi-level emulation of a volcanic ash transport and dispersion model to quantify sensitivity to uncertain parameters
Assessing qualitative long-term volcanic hazards at Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands)
High-resolution modelling of atmospheric dispersion of dense gas using TWODEE-2.1: application to the 1986 Lake Nyos limnic eruption
Examining the impact of lahars on buildings using numerical modelling
Brief communication: Extended chronology of the Cordón Caulle volcanic eruption beyond 2011 reveals toxic impacts
Aerosol properties and meteorological conditions in the city of Buenos Aires, Argentina, during the resuspension of volcanic ash from the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle eruption
Lava flow hazard at Fogo Volcano, Cabo Verde, before and after the 2014–2015 eruption
Factors controlling erosion/deposition phenomena related to lahars at Volcán de Colima, Mexico
The unrest of the San Miguel volcano (El Salvador, Central America): installation of the monitoring network and observed volcano-tectonic ground deformation
Using video games for volcanic hazard education and communication: an assessment of the method and preliminary results
Short-term volcano-tectonic earthquake forecasts based on a moving mean recurrence time algorithm: the El Hierro seismo-volcanic crisis experience
Lightning and electrical activity during the Shiveluch volcano eruption on 16 November 2014
Chronology and impact of the 2011 Cordón Caulle eruption, Chile
PM10 measurements in urban settlements after lava fountain episodes at Mt. Etna, Italy: pilot test to assess volcanic ash hazard to human health
Preliminary assessment for the use of VORIS as a tool for rapid lava flow simulation at Goma Volcano Observatory, Democratic Republic of the Congo
Secondary lahar hazard assessment for Villa la Angostura, Argentina, using Two-Phase-Titan modelling code during 2011 Cordón Caulle eruption
Andrea Verolino, Su Fen Wee, Susanna F. Jenkins, Fidel Costa, and Adam D. Switzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1203–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1203-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1203-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Submarine volcanic eruptions represent the majority of eruptions taking place on Earth. Still, they are vastly understudied worldwide. Here we compile a new dataset and assess the morphology, depth, and height of submarine volcanoes in Southeast Asia and its surroundings to understand their hazard-exposure potential in the region. This study will serve as a stepping stone for future quantitative hazard assessments from submarine eruptions in Southeast Asia and neighbouring countries.
Carlos Molina, Badr-Eddine Boudriki Semlali, Guillermo González-Casado, Hyuk Park, and Adriano Camps
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3671–3684, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3671-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3671-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Global navigation satellite system signals are used to measure the perturbations induced in the ionosphere by earthquakes related to volcanic eruptions. The study uses data from ground stations and satellites measuring the signals reflected on the ocean or during radio occultation. The results shows a small correlation, but given the small magnitude of the earthquakes, it is difficult to apply this concept to any practical application that finds earthquake proxies in ionospheric perturbations.
Gro B. M. Pedersen, Melissa A. Pfeffer, Sara Barsotti, Simone Tarquini, Mattia de'Michieli Vitturi, Bergrún A. Óladóttir, and Ragnar Heiðar Þrastarson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3147–3168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3147-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3147-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The lava eruption at Fagradalsfjall in 2021 was the most visited eruption in Iceland, with thousands of visitors per day for 6 months. To address the short- and long-term danger of lava inundating infrastructure and hiking paths, we used the lava flow model MrLavaLoba before and during the eruption. These simulations helped communicate lava hazards to stakeholders and can be used as a case study for lava hazard assessment for future eruptions in the area, which are likely to be more destructive.
Silvia Massaro, Manuel Stocchi, Beatriz Martínez Montesinos, Laura Sandri, Jacopo Selva, Roberto Sulpizio, Biagio Giaccio, Massimiliano Moscatelli, Edoardo Peronace, Marco Nocentini, Roberto Isaia, Manuel Titos Luzón, Pierfrancesco Dellino, Giuseppe Naso, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2289–2311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2289-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2289-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new methodology to calculate a probabilistic long-term tephra fallout hazard assessment in southern Italy from the Neapolitan volcanoes is provided. By means of thousands of numerical simulations we quantify the mean annual frequency with which the tephra load at the ground exceeds critical thresholds in 50 years. The output hazard maps account for changes in eruptive regimes of each volcano and are also comparable with those of other natural disasters in which more sources are integrated.
Luigi Carleo, Gilda Currenti, and Alessandro Bonaccorso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1743–1754, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1743-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1743-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Lava fountains at the Etna volcano are explosive eruptions that pose a serious threat to civil infrastructure and aviation. Their evolution from weak explosion to sustained eruptive column is imprinted in tiny ground deformations caught by strain signals with diverse duration and amplitude. By performing a clustering analysis on strain variations, we discover a transition among four eruptive styles, providing useful hints for volcano monitoring and hazard assessment.
Noa Ligot, Patrick Bogaert, Sébastien Biass, Guillaume Lobet, and Pierre Delmelle
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1355–1369, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing risk to crops from volcanic ashfall is critical to protect people who rely on agriculture for their livelihood and food security. Ash retention on crop leaves is a key process in damage initiation. Experiments with tomato and chilli pepper plants revealed that ash retention increases with decreasing ash grain size and is enhanced when leaves are pubescent or their surfaces are wet. We propose a new relationship to quantify potential crop yield loss as a function of ash retention.
Braden Walsh, Charline Lormand, Jon Procter, and Glyn Williams-Jones
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1029–1044, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1029-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1029-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we delve into the properties of a lake-breakout mass flow that grew up to a volume of ~ 4.4 × 106 m3 over the course of 83 km that occurred on 18 March 2007 at Mt. Ruapehu, Aotearoa / New Zealand. The combination of seismic analysis (frequency and directionality) with on-the-ground measurements (e.g., video, sediment concentration) shows how a lahar evolves over time and distance and how using seismic techniques can help monitor the ever-changing dynamics and properties of a flow event.
Pablo Salazar, Franz Yupanqui, Claudio Meneses, Susana Layana, and Gonzalo Yáñez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 991–1006, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-991-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-991-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The acquisition of more generalizable models, using machine learning techniques, creates a good opportunity to develop a multi-volcano probabilistic model for volcanoes worldwide. This will improve the understanding and evaluation of the hazards and risks associated with the activity of volcanoes.
Matthew W. Hayward, Emily M. Lane, Colin N. Whittaker, Graham S. Leonard, and William L. Power
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 955–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-955-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-955-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, 20 explosive volcanic eruption scenarios of differing location and magnitude are simulated to investigate tsunami generation in Lake Taupō, New Zealand. A non-hydrostatic multilayer numerical scheme resolves the highly dispersive generated wavefield. Inundation, hydrographic and related hazard outputs are produced, indicating that significant inundation around the lake shore begins above 5 on the volcanic explosivity index.
Gui Hu, Linlin Li, Zhiyuan Ren, and Kan Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 675–691, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-675-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the tsunamigenic mechanisms and the hydrodynamic characteristics of the 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai volcanic tsunami event. Through extensive analysis of tsunami waveforms, we identify four distinct tsunami components from different physical mechanisms. The long-lasting oscillation of the tsunami event in the Pacific Ocean was mainly associated with the interplay of the ocean waves left by atmospheric waves with local bathymetry.
Andrea Bevilacqua, Alvaro Aravena, Willy Aspinall, Antonio Costa, Sue Mahony, Augusto Neri, Stephen Sparks, and Brittain Hill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3329–3348, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3329-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3329-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate through first-order kinetic energy models, the minimum volume and mass of a pyroclastic density current generated at the Aso caldera that might affect any of five distal infrastructure sites. These target sites are all located 115–145 km from the caldera, but in well-separated directions. Our constraints of volume and mass are then compared with the scale of Aso-4, the largest caldera-forming eruption of Aso.
Sébastien Biass, Susanna F. Jenkins, William H. Aeberhard, Pierre Delmelle, and Thomas Wilson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2829–2855, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2829-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2829-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a methodology that combines big Earth observation data and interpretable machine learning to revisit the impact of past volcanic eruptions recorded in archives of multispectral satellite imagery. Using Google Earth Engine and dedicated numerical modelling, we revisit and constrain processes controlling vegetation vulnerability to tephra fallout following the 2011 eruption of Cordón Caulle volcano, illustrating how this approach can inform the development of risk-reduction policies.
Maud Devès, Robin Lacassin, Hugues Pécout, and Geoffrey Robert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2001–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2001-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2001-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper focuses on the issue of population information about natural hazards and disaster risk. It builds on the analysis of the unique seismo-volcanic crisis on the island of Mayotte, France, that started in May 2018 and lasted several years. We document the gradual response of the actors in charge of scientific monitoring and risk management. We then make recommendations for improving risk communication strategies in Mayotte and also in contexts where comparable geo-crises may happen.
Costanza Bonadonna, Ali Asgary, Franco Romerio, Tais Zulemyan, Corine Frischknecht, Chiara Cristiani, Mauro Rosi, Chris E. Gregg, Sebastien Biass, Marco Pistolesi, Scira Menoni, and Antonio Ricciardi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1083–1108, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1083-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1083-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Evacuation planning and management represent a key aspect of volcanic crises because they can increase people's protection as well as minimize the potential impacts on the economy, properties and infrastructure of the affected area. We present a simulation tool that assesses the effectiveness of different evacuation scenarios as well as a model to assess the economic impact of evacuation as a function of evacuation duration and starting period using the island of Vulcano (Italy) as a case study.
Luca Bugliaro, Dennis Piontek, Stephan Kox, Marius Schmidl, Bernhard Mayer, Richard Müller, Margarita Vázquez-Navarro, Daniel M. Peters, Roy G. Grainger, Josef Gasteiger, and Jayanta Kar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1029–1054, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1029-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1029-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The monitoring of ash dispersion in the atmosphere is an important task for satellite remote sensing since ash represents a threat to air traffic. We present an AI-based method that retrieves the spatial extension and properties of volcanic ash clouds with high temporal resolution during day and night by means of geostationary satellite measurements. This algorithm, trained on realistic observations simulated with a radiative transfer model, runs operationally at the German Weather Service.
Manuel Titos, Beatriz Martínez Montesinos, Sara Barsotti, Laura Sandri, Arnau Folch, Leonardo Mingari, Giovanni Macedonio, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 139–163, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work addresses a quantitative hazard assessment on the possible impact on air traffic of a future ash-forming eruption on the island of Jan Mayen. Through high-performance computing resources, we numerically simulate the transport of ash clouds and ash concentration at different flight levels over an area covering Iceland and the UK using the FALL3D model. This approach allows us to derive a set of probability maps explaining the extent and persisting concentration conditions of ash clouds.
Warner Marzocchi, Jacopo Selva, and Thomas H. Jordan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3509–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3509-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3509-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard analysis are pervaded by uncertainty of different kinds, such as the natural randomness, our lack of knowledge, and the so-called unknown unknowns. After discussing the limits of how classical probabilistic frameworks handle these uncertainties, we put forward a unified probabilistic framework which unambiguously defines uncertainty of different kinds, and it allows scientific validation of the hazard model against independent observations.
Stuart R. Mead, Jonathan Procter, and Gabor Kereszturi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2447–2460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2447-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2447-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Computer simulations can be used to estimate the flow path and inundation of volcanic mass flows; however, their accuracy needs to be appropriately measured and handled in order to determine hazard zones. This paper presents an approach to simulation accuracy assessment and hazard zonation with a volcanic debris avalanche as the benchmark. This method helped to identify and support key findings about errors in mass flow simulations, as well as potential end-use cases for hazard zonation.
Magdalena Oryaëlle Chevrel, Massimiliano Favalli, Nicolas Villeneuve, Andrew J. L. Harris, Alessandro Fornaciai, Nicole Richter, Allan Derrien, Patrice Boissier, Andrea Di Muro, and Aline Peltier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2355–2377, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2355-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2355-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
At Piton de la Fournaise, eruptions are typically fissure-fed and form extensive lava flow fields. Most historical events have occurred inside an uninhabited caldera, but rarely has lava flowed where population and infrastructure might be at risk. We present an up-to-date lava flow hazard map to visualize the probability of inundation by a lava flow per unit area that is an essential tool for hazard mitigation and guiding crises response management.
Andrea Bevilacqua, Alvaro Aravena, Augusto Neri, Eduardo Gutiérrez, Demetrio Escobar, Melida Schliz, Alessandro Aiuppa, and Raffaello Cioni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1639–1665, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1639-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1639-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present novel probability maps for the opening position of new vents in the San Salvador (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe (Nicaragua) volcanic complexes. In particular, we present thematic maps, i.e., we consider different hazardous phenomena separately. To illustrate the significant effects of considering the expected eruption style in the construction of vent opening maps, we focus on the analysis of small-scale pyroclastic density currents using an approach based on numerical modeling.
Joana Medeiros, Rita Carmo, Adriano Pimentel, José Cabral Vieira, and Gabriela Queiroz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 417–437, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-417-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-417-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a new approach to accessing the economic impact of explosive eruptions on the tourism sector on São Miguel Island, which uses the loss present value method to estimate the benefits generated by accommodation units over 30 years for different scenarios. The results reveal that in a near-total-destruction scenario, the economic loss is ~ EUR 145 million. This method can be adapted to other volcanic regions and also to other geological hazards and economic sectors.
Carola Leva, Georg Rümpker, and Ingo Wölbern
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3627–3638, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3627-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3627-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Often, an abrupt increase in shallow seismicity at volcanoes is seen as an indicator for magmatic intrusions into the upper crust. If no eruption occurs and the seismic activity stops, this is called a failed eruption. Here, we report a failed eruption of Brava, Cabo Verde, in August 2016. We remotely monitored the seismicity of Brava with a seismic array, operating from October 2015 to December 2016. Other episodes with increased seismicity around the island were also observed during the study.
Philipson Bani, Kristianto, Syegi Kunrat, and Devy Kamil Syahbana
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2119–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2119-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2119-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Awu is a little-known volcano in Indonesia, and paradoxically it is one of the deadliest volcanoes on Earth. Some of its recurrent intense eruptions have induced world-scale impacts. The pulverization of a cooled lava dome and its conduit plug have allowed lake water injection into the conduit, leading to explosive water–magma interaction. The past vigorous eruptions were likely induced by these phenomena and it is a possible scenario for future events.
Giuseppe De Natale, Claudia Troise, and Renato Somma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2037–2053, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2037-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2037-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper starts by showing the present low performance of eruption forecasting and then addresses the problem of effectively mitigating the highest volcanic risk in the world, represented by the Naples area (southern Italy). The problem is considered in a highly multidisciplinary way, taking into account the main economic, sociological and urban planning issues. Our study gives precise guidelines to assessing and managing volcanic risk in any densely urbanised area.
Marcus Hirtl, Delia Arnold, Rocio Baro, Hugues Brenot, Mauro Coltelli, Kurt Eschbacher, Helmut Hard-Stremayer, Florian Lipok, Christian Maurer, Dieter Meinhard, Lucia Mona, Marie D. Mulder, Nikolaos Papagiannopoulos, Michael Pernsteiner, Matthieu Plu, Lennart Robertson, Carl-Herbert Rokitansky, Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher, Klaus Sievers, Mikhail Sofiev, Wim Som de Cerff, Martin Steinheimer, Martin Stuefer, Nicolas Theys, Andreas Uppstu, Saskia Wagenaar, Roland Winkler, Gerhard Wotawa, Fritz Zobl, and Raimund Zopp
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1719–1739, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1719-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1719-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The paper summarizes the set-up and outcome of a volcanic-hazard demonstration exercise, with the goals of assessing and mitigating the impacts of volcanic ash clouds on civil and military aviation. Experts in the field simulated the sequence of procedures for an artificial eruption of the Etna volcano in Italy. The scope of the exercise ranged from the detection of the assumed event to the issuance of early warnings and optimized rerouting of flights.
Adrianus de Laat, Margarita Vazquez-Navarro, Nicolas Theys, and Piet Stammes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1203–1217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1203-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1203-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
TROPOMI satellite measurements can accurately determine the height of thick volcanic ash clouds from a short-lived volcanic eruption of the Sinabung volcano in Indonesia. Standard geostationary satellite detection of volcanic ash was limited due to the presence of water and ice in the upper parts of volcanic ash clouds, a known issue. The TROPOMI satellite measurements do not suffer from this limitation, hence providing information where standard geostationary volcanic ash detection is limited.
Ayleen Gaete, Thomas R. Walter, Stefan Bredemeyer, Martin Zimmer, Christian Kujawa, Luis Franco Marin, Juan San Martin, and Claudia Bucarey Parra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 377–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-377-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-377-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Phreatic eruptions often occur without signs of enhanced volcanic unrest, avoiding detection and posing a threat to people in the vicinity. We analyzed data of the 2015 phreatic eruption of Lascar volcano, Chile, to retrospectively identify a precipitation event as the trigger mechanism and potential signs heralding this minor eruption. We showed that it is possible to detect the precursory activity of phreatic eruptions by deploying appropriate multiparametric monitoring.
Valérie Baumann, Costanza Bonadonna, Sabatino Cuomo, Mariagiovanna Moscariello, Sebastien Biass, Marco Pistolesi, and Alessandro Gattuso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2421–2449, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2421-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2421-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Lahars are fast-moving mixtures of volcanic debris and water propagating downslope on volcanoes that can be very dangerous for people and property. Identification of lahar source areas and initiation mechanisms is crucial to comprehensive lahar hazard assessment. We present the first rain-triggered lahar susceptibility map for La Fossa volcano (Vulcano, Italy) combining probabilistic tephra modelling, slope-stability modelling, precipitation data, field characterizations, and geotechnical tests.
David M. Hyman, Andrea Bevilacqua, and Marcus I. Bursik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1347–1363, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1347-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1347-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we present new methods for calculating the mean, standard deviation, median, and modal locations of the boundaries of volcanic hazards. These calculations are based on a new, mathematically rigorous definition of probabilistic hazard maps – a way to map the probabilities of inundation by a given hazard. We apply this analysis to several models of volcanic flows: simple models of viscous flows, complex models of a tabletop granular flow, and a complex model of a volcanic mud flow.
Sophie Mossoux, Matthieu Kervyn, and Frank Canters
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1251–1263, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1251-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1251-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Hazard maps provide information about the probability of given areas of being affected by hazards. So far studies combining hazard mapping with accessibility to services are few. In this study, we propose two new metrics defining the importance of each road segment in the accessibility of services, taking into account the probability of being affected by a hazard. These metrics may help support discussions about the development of new infrastructure or road segments and evacuation procedures.
Sara Osman, Eduardo Rossi, Costanza Bonadonna, Corine Frischknecht, Daniele Andronico, Raffaello Cioni, and Simona Scollo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 589–610, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-589-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-589-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The fallout of large clasts (> 5 cm) from the margins of eruptive plumes can damage local infrastructure and severely injure people close to the volcano. Even though this potential hazard has been observed at many volcanoes, it has often been overlooked. We present the first hazard and risk assessment of large-clast fallout from eruptive plumes and use Mt Etna (Italy) as a case study. The use of dedicated shelters in the case of an explosive event that occurs with no warning is also evaluated.
Herlan Darmawan, Thomas R. Walter, Valentin R. Troll, and Agus Budi-Santoso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3267–3281, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3267-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3267-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
At Merapi volcano, lava dome failure may generate pyroclastic flow and threaten populations who live on its flanks. Here, we assessed the potential hazard of the Merapi lava dome by using drone photogrammetry and numerical modeling. Results show a weak structural depression that is associated with high thermal imaging in the southern Merapi lava dome sector. The southern lava dome sector may be further destabilized by typical rainfall at the Merapi summit and produce pyroclastic flow up to 4 km.
Stefania Bartolini, Carmen López, Laura Becerril, Rosa Sobradelo, and Joan Martí
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1759–1770, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1759-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1759-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The most challenging aspect of forecasting volcanic eruptions is the correct identification and interpretation of precursors during the episodes that normally precede eruptive activity. We show an easy and useful approach to the understanding of the information recorded by the monitoring system and show how this information can be used to forecast an eruption and its potential hazards in real time. This methodology can be used to facilitate communication between scientists and decision-makers.
Elena Gerwing, Matthias Hort, Jörn Behrens, and Bärbel Langmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1517–1534, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1517-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1517-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This article describes the first volcanic emission advection model based on an adaptive mesh. The advection of volcanic emissions plays a crucial role in climate research, air traffic control and human wellbeing. In contrast to already existing volcanic emission dispersion models relying on a fixed grid, the application of an adaptive mesh enables us to simulate the advection of volcanic emissions with a high local resolution while minimizing computational cost.
Natalie J. Harvey, Nathan Huntley, Helen F. Dacre, Michael Goldstein, David Thomson, and Helen Webster
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 41–63, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-41-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-41-2018, 2018
Laura Becerril, Joan Martí, Stefania Bartolini, and Adelina Geyer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1145–1157, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1145-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1145-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Lanzarote is an island (Canaries, Spain), that has hosted the largest and longest eruption in the archipelago (Timanfaya 1730–36). It brought severe economic losses and forced local people to migrate. We have developed the first comprehensive hazard assessment for the island. New eruptions will take place close to the last one and will be characterised by Strombolian activity, with ash emission towards the S, medium-length lava flows and hydromagmatic activity only close to the coastal areas.
Arnau Folch, Jordi Barcons, Tomofumi Kozono, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 861–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-861-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-861-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric dispersal of a gas denser than air can threat the environment and surrounding communities. In complex terrains, microscale winds and local orographic features can have a strong influence on the gas cloud behavior, potentially leading to inaccurate model results if not captured by coarser-scale simulations. We introduce a methodology for microscale wind field characterization and validate it using, as a test case, the CO2 gas dispersal from 1986 Lake Nyos eruption.
Stuart R. Mead, Christina Magill, Vincent Lemiale, Jean-Claude Thouret, and Mahesh Prakash
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 703–719, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-703-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-703-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic mudflows, called lahars, can cause large amounts of damage to buildings. In this research we developed a method to estimate lahar-induced building damage based on the height, speed and amount of volcanic material in the lahar. This method was applied to a small region in Arequipa, Peru, where computer models were used to estimate the number of buildings affected by lahars. The research found that building location and the size of the flow are most important in determining damage.
Werner T. Flueck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2351–2355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2351-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2351-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The 2011 Puyehue volcano eruption also caused persisting chemical impacts. By 2012, dental fluorosis in deer appeared, with bone fluoride increasing > 38-fold. Livestock also succumbed to fluorosis. As exposure of ruminants continued, bone fluoride reached 10 396 ppm, by 2014 caused skeletal fluorosis, reduced wool growth, and caused major losses among periparturient cattle. Peculiarities of digestive processes make ruminants susceptible to fluoride-containing ashes.
Ana Graciela Ulke, Marcela M. Torres Brizuela, Graciela B. Raga, and Darrel Baumgardner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2159–2175, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2159-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2159-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The eruption in June 2011 of the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle Volcanic Complex (Chile) impacted air traffic around the Southern Hemisphere for several months. The ash deposited in vast areas of the Patagonian steppe was subjected to the strong wind conditions prevalent during the austral winter and spring. An ash resuspension event impacted Buenos Aires and resulted in the closure of airports in the area on 16 October 2011. Measurements of aerosol properties clearly indicate the enhanced concentrations
Nicole Richter, Massimiliano Favalli, Elske de Zeeuw-van Dalfsen, Alessandro Fornaciai, Rui Manuel da Silva Fernandes, Nemesio M. Pérez, Judith Levy, Sónia Silva Victória, and Thomas R. Walter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1925–1951, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1925-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1925-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a comprehensive lava flow hazard assessment for Fogo volcano, Cabo Verde before and after the 2014–2015 eruption based on probabilistic lava flow simulations. We find that the probability of lava flow invasion has not decreased at the location of two villages that were destroyed during this eruption, but have already started to be rebuilt. Our findings will be important for the next eruption of Fogo volcano and have implications for future lava flow crises elsewhere in the world.
Rosario Vázquez, Lucia Capra, and Velio Coviello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1881–1895, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1881-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1881-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present the morphological changes experienced by Montegrande ravine (Volcán de Colima, Mexico) during the 2013, 2014 and 2015 rainy seasons. A total of 11 lahars occurred during this period of time, and their erosion/deposition effects were quantified by means of cross sections and rainfall analysis. The major factors controlling the E/D rates are the channel-bed slope, the cross-section width, the flow depth and the joint effect of sediment availability and accumulated rainfall.
Alessandro Bonforte, Douglas Antonio Hernandez, Eduardo Gutiérrez, Louis Handal, Cecilia Polío, Salvatore Rapisarda, and Piergiorgio Scarlato
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1755–1769, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1755-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1755-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we present the work done during an international cooperation between Italy and El Salvador, for implementing the multiparametric monitoring of the San Miguel volcano in El Salvador after its sudden unrest. In particular, the aim of this paper is to show and describe the installed geodetic network and to show, comment and interpret the very first detailed ground deformation data obtained on this volcano during an unrest period, useful for characterizing its unknown dynamics.
Lara Mani, Paul D. Cole, and Iain Stewart
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1673–1689, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1673-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1673-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we aim to better understand the potential for using video games in volcanic hazard education with at-risk communities. A study using a bespoke-designed video game – St. Vincent's Volcano – was trialled on the Caribbean island of St. Vincent in 2015. Preliminary data analysis demonstrates 94 % of study participants had an improved knowledge of volcanic hazards after playing the game, leading us to conclude that video games could be a logical progression for education and outreach activities.
Alicia García, Servando De la Cruz-Reyna, José M. Marrero, and Ramón Ortiz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1135–1144, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1135-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1135-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquakes of volcanic origin (VT) represent a significant hazard in volcanic islands prone to landslides. We present a methodology to forecast large VT earthquakes during volcanic crises based on an algorithm that translates fluctuations of the level of seismicity into 10-day time windows of increased probability of a major event. This algorithm has been successfully applied during the 2011–2013 volcanic crisis at El Hierro (Canary Islands).
Boris M. Shevtsov, Pavel P. Firstov, Nina V. Cherneva, Robert H. Holzworth, and Renat R. Akbashev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 871–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-871-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-871-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Kamchatka volcano group is located near populated areas and international air routes. Due to this, explosive eruptions are a serious threat to their security. To decrease the risks, effective systems for remote detection of eruptions are necessary. WWLLN resolution is enough for the remote sensing of the volcano lightning activity in the early stage of ash cloud formation a few minutes after the eruption when electrification proceeds the most intensively.
Manuela Elissondo, Valérie Baumann, Costanza Bonadonna, Marco Pistolesi, Raffaello Cioni, Antonella Bertagnini, Sébastien Biass, Juan-Carlos Herrero, and Rafael Gonzalez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 675–704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-675-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-675-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present a chronological reconstruction of the 2011 eruption of Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano (Chile) which significantly affected the ecosystem and important economic sectors. The comparison with the impact associated with other recent eruptions located in similar areas shows that the regions downwind of the erupting volcanoes suffered similar problems, suggesting that a detailed collection of impact data can be largely beneficial for the development of emergency and risk-mitigation plans.
D. Andronico and P. Del Carlo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 29–40, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-29-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-29-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The paper focuses on the potential health risks caused by the sub-10 micron fraction of volcanic ash (PM10) following explosive eruptions of Mt. Etna (Italy). We present the results of a study on the ash concentration in the air of urbanized areas after the 15 November 2011 lava fountain and the related tephra fallout, causing high levels of PM10 in the air. We conclude by hoping that due attention will be given to the impact of ash fallout on the Etnean territory in the future.
A. M. Syavulisembo, H.-B. Havenith, B. Smets, N. d'Oreye, and J. Marti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2391–2400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2391-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2391-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The Virunga area in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with over 1 million inhabitants, has to permanently cope with the threat posed by the active Nyamulagira and Nyiragongo volcanoes. During the past century, Nyamulagira erupted at intervals of about every 3 years – mostly in the form of lava flows – at least 30 times. In order to identify a useful tool for hazard assessment at the Goma Volcanological Observatory, we tested VORIS, a freely available software (www.gvb-csic.es).
G. Córdoba, G. Villarosa, M. F. Sheridan, J. G. Viramonte, D. Beigt, and G. Salmuni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 757–766, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-757-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-757-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper shows the results of secondary lahar modelling in Villa La Angostura town (Neuquén-Argentina) based on the Two-Phase-Titan modelling computer code.
Possible occurrence of secondary lahars that could reach the city was analysed. The procedure allowed simulation of the path of flows from Florencia, Las Piedritas and Colorado creeks, which are the most influential streams in Villa La Angostura. The output of the modelling is a valuable tool for city planning and risk management.
Cited articles
Aldrian, E. and Dwi Susanto, R.: Identification of three dominant rainfall
regions within Indonesia and their relationship to sea surface temperature,
Int. J. Climatol., 23, 1435–1452, 2003.
Aravena, A., Cioni, R., Bevilacqua, A., de' Michieli Vitturi, M., Esposti Ongaro, T., and Neri, A.: Tree-branching-based enhancement of kinetic energy models for reproducing channelization processes of pyroclastic density
currents, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 125, e2019JB019271, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JB019271, 2020.
Aspinall, W. P., Auker, M. R., Hincks, T. K., Mahony, S. H., Pooley, J., Nadim, F., Syre, E., Sparks, R. S. J., and Bank, T. W.: Volcano Hazard and
Exposure in Track II Countries and Risk Mitigation Measures – GFDRR Volcano
Risk Study, The World Bank, 309 pp., 2011.
Auker, M., Sparks, R., Siebert, L., Crosweller, H., and Ewert, J.: A statistical analysis of the global historical volcanic fatalities record, J.
Appl. Volcanol., 2, 1–24, 2013.
Auker, M. R., Sparks, R. S. J., Jenkins, S. F., Aspinall, W. P., Brown, S.
K., Deligne, N. I., Jolly, G., Loughlin, S. C., Marzocchi, W., Newhall, C.
G., and Palma, J. L.: Development of a new global Volcanic Hazard Index (VHI), in: Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk, edited by: Loughlin, S. C., Sparks, R. S. J., Brown, S. K., Jenkins, S. F., and Vye-Brown, C., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, https://www.cambridge.org/de/academic/subjects/earth-and-environmental-science/mineralogy-petrology-and-volcanology/global-volcanic-hazards-and-risk?format=HB&isbn=9781107111752 (last access: 6 April 2022), 2015.
Bebbington, M.: Long-term forecasting of volcanic explosivity, Geophys. J. Int., 197, 1500–1515, 2014.
Biass, S., Frischknecht, C., and Bonadonna, C.: A fast GIS-based risk assessment for tephra fallout: the example of Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador – Part II: vulnerability and risk assessment, Nat. Hazards, 64, 615–639, 2012.
Biass, S., Scaini, C., Bonadonna, C., Folch, A., Smith, K., and Höskuldsson, A.: A multi-scale risk assessment for tephra fallout and airborne concentration from multiple Icelandic volcanoes – Part 1: Hazard assessment, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2265–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2265-2014, 2014.
Biass, S., Williams, G., Hayes, J., and Rui, J.: vharg/VolcGIS: VolcGIS (v1.0), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6416793, 2022.
Blong, R. J.: Volcanic hazards: a sourcebook on the effects of eruptions, Academic Press Australia, 424 pp., https://books.google.co.uk/books?hl=en&lr=&id=6kjgBAAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PP1&dq=blong+1984+sourcebook:&ots=ecdH9sE_YT&sig=ld0_EKlyRwhTQ0IGjsxveRivmA8#v=onepage&q=blong 1984 sourcebook:&f=false (last access: 6 April 2022), 1984.
Bonadonna, C., Connor, C. B., Houghton, B. F., Connor, L., Byrne, M., Laing,
A., and Hincks, T. K.: Probabilistic modeling of tephra dispersal: Hazard
assessment of a multiphase rhyolitic eruption at Tarawera, New Zealand, J. Geophys. Res., 110, 1–21, 2005.
Brown, R., Bonadonna, C., and Durant, A.: A review of volcanic ash aggregation, Phys. Chem. Earth Pt. A/B/C, 45, 65–78, 2012.
Brown, S. K., Auker, M. R., and Sparks, R. S. J.: Populations around Holocene volcanoes and development of a Population Exposure Index. Chapter 4, in: Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk, edited by: Loughlin, S. C., Sparks, R. S. J., Brown, S. K., Jenkins, S. F., and Vye-Brown, C., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, https://www.cambridge.org/de/academic/subjects/earth-and-environmental-science/mineralogy-petrology-and-volcanology/global-volcanic-hazards-and-risk?format=HB&isbn=9781107111752 (last access: 6 April 2022), 2015a.
Brown, S. K., Sparks, R., and Jenkins, S.: Global distribution of volcanic
threat, Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk, Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, 349–358, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316276273.025, 2015b.
Brown, S. K., Jenkins, S. F., Sparks, R. S. J., Odbert, H., and Auker, M. R.: Volcanic fatalities database: analysis of volcanic threat with distance and victim classification, J. Appl. Volcanol., 6, 15, https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-017-0067-4, 2017.
Buchhorn, M., Smets, B., Bertels, L., De Roo, B., Lesiv, M., Tsendbazar, N.-E., Herold, M., and Fritz, S.: Copernicus Global Land Service: Land Cover
100 m: Collection 3 Epoch 2015, Globe, Version V3. 0.1, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3518038, 2020.
Camejo, M. and Robertson, R.: Estimating Volcanic Risk in the Lesser Antilles, SRC Open File Report 2013-1001, The University of the West Indies Seismic Research Centre, https://vhub.org/resources/2909 (last access: 6 April 2022), 2013.
Charbonnier, S. J. and Gertisser, R.: Field observations and surface characteristics of pristine block-and-ash flow deposits from the 2006 eruption of Merapi Volcano, Java, Indonesia, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 177, 971–982, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.07.008, 2008.
Cole, P. D., Neri, A., and Baxter, P. J.: Hazards from pyroclastic density
currents, in: The encyclopedia of volcanoes, Elsevier, 943–956, ISBN 978-0-12-385938-9, 2015.
De Maisonneuve, C. B. and Bergal-Kuvikas, O.: Timing, magnitude and geochemistry of major Southeast Asian volcanic eruptions: identifying tephrochronologic markers, J. Quaternary Sci., 35, 272–287,
https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.3181, 2020.
Dilley, M., Chen, R. S., Deichmann, U., Lerner-Lam, A. L., and Arnold, M.:
Natural disaster hotspots: a global risk analysis, The World Bank Hazard
Management Unit, 132 pp., https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/7376 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO (last access: 6 April 2022), 2005.
Ewert, J. W.: System for ranking relative threats of U.S. volcanoes, Nat.
Hazards Rev., 8, 112–124, 2007.
Ewert, J. W., Diefenbach, A. K., and Ramsey, D. W.: 2018 update to the US Geological Survey national volcanic threat assessment, US Geological
Survey 2328-0328, US Geological Survey, https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20185140, 2018.
Farr, T. G., Rosen, P. A., Caro, E., Crippen, R., Duren, R., Hensley, S.,
Kobrick, M., Paller, M., Rodriguez, E., and Roth, L.: The shuttle radar
topography mission, Rev. Geophys., 45, RG2004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005RG000183, 2007.
Freire, S., Florczyk, A. J., Pesaresi, M., and Sliuzas, R.: An Improved
Global Analysis of Population Distribution in Proximity to Active Volcanoes, 1975–2015, ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inform., 8, 341, https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi8080341, 2019.
Global Volcanism Program: Report on Mayon (Philippines), in: Weekly Volcanic Activity Report, 6 June–12 June 2001, edited by: Mayberry, G., Smithsonian Institution and US Geological Survey, https://volcano.si.edu/showreport.cfm?doi=GVP.WVAR20010606-273030 (last access: 6 April 2022), 2001.
Global Volcanism Program: Volcanoes of the World, v. 4.8.6 (February 2020), edited by: Venzke, E., Smithsonian Institution, https://doi.org/10.5479/si.GVP.VOTW4-2013, 2013.
Global Volcanism Program: Report on Sinabung (Indonesia), in: Weekly Volcanic Activity Report, 1 January–7 January 2014, edited by: Sennert, S. K., Smithsonian Institution and US Geological Survey, 2014.
Grosse, P., Euillades, P. A., Euillades, L. D., and van Wyk de Vries, B.: A
global database of composite volcano morphometry, Bull. Volcanol., 76, 1–16, 2014.
Hayes, J. L., Jenkins, S. F., and Joffrey, M.: Evaluating uncertainty in
long-term frequency-magnitude relationships for volcanoes in Southeast Asia, Front. Geohazard. Georisk., in revision, 2022a.
Hayes, J. L., Biass, S., Jenkins, S. F., Meredith, E. S., and Williams, G.
T.: Integrating criticality concepts into road network disruption exposure
assessments, J. Appl. Volcanol., in review, 2022b.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., and Schepers, D.:
The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, 2020.
Hoblitt, R. P., Miller, C. D., and Scott, W. E.: Volcano hazards with regard
to siting nuclear power-plants in the Pacific Northwest, United States
Geological Survey Open-File Report 87-297, United States
Geological Survey, 98–428, https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr87297, 1987.
Hurst, A. W. and Smith, W.: Volcanic ashfall in New Zealand – probabilistic
hazard modelling for multiple sources, New Zeal. J. Geol. Geophys., 53, 1–14, 2010.
Hurst, T. and Smith, W.: A Monte Carlo methodology for modelling ashfall
hazards, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 138, 393–403, 2004.
Iguchi, M., Ishihara, K., and Hendrasto, M.: Learn from 2010 eruptions at
Merapi and Sinabung volcanoes in Indonesia, Annuals of Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, 54, 185–194, 2011.
Iverson, R. M., Schilling, S. P., and Vallance, J. W.: Objective delineation
of lahar-inundation hazard zones, Geol. Soc. Am. Bull., 110, 972–984, 1998.
Jenkins, S., Magill, C., McAneney, J., and Blong, R.: Regional ash fall hazard I: A probabilistic assessment methodology, Bull. Volcanol., 74, 1699–1712, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-012-0627-8, 2012a.
Jenkins, S., McAneney, J., Magill, C., and Blong, R.: Regional ash fall hazard II: Asia-Pacific modelling results and implications, Bull. Volcanol., 74, 1713–1727, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-012-0628-7, 2012b.
Jenkins, S., Komorowski, J. C., Baxter, P., Spence, R., Picquout, A., Lavigne, F., and Surono: The Merapi 2010 eruption: An interdisciplinary impact assessment methodology for studying pyroclastic density current
dynamics, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 261, 316–329, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2013.02.012, 2013.
Jenkins, S. F., Spence, R. J. S., Fonseca, J. F. B. D., Solidum, R. U., and
Wilson, T. M.: Volcanic risk assessment: Quantifying physical vulnerability
in the built environment, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 276, 105–120, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2014.03.002, 2014.
Jenkins, S. F., Wilson, T. M., Magill, C. R., Miller, V., Stewart, C., Blong, R., Marzocchi, W., Boulton, M., Bonadonna, C., and Costa, A.: Volcanic ash fall hazard and risk. Chapter 3, in: Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk, edited by: Loughlin, S. C., Sparks, R. S. J., Brown, S. K., Jenkins, S. F., and Vye-Brown, C., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, https://www.cambridge.org/de/academic/subjects/earth-and-environmental-science/mineralogy-petrology-and-volcanology/global-volcanic-hazards-and-risk?format=HB&isbn=9781107111752 (last access: 6 April 2022), 2015.
Jenkins, S. F., Komorowski, J. C., Baxter, P. J., Charbonnier, S. J., and
Surono, N.: The devastating impact of the 2010 eruption of Merapi Volcano,
Indonesia, Plate boundaries and natural hazards, American Geophysical Union and John Wiley and Sons Inc., 259–269, ISBN 978-1-119-05397-2, 2016.
Jenkins, S. F., Magill, C. R., and Blong, R. J.: Evaluating relative tephra
fall hazard and risk in the Asia-Pacific region, Geosphere, 14, 492–509,
2018.
Jenkins, S. F., Biass, S., Williams, G. T., Hayes, J. L., Tennant, E., Yang, Q., Burgos, V., Meredith, E. S., Lerner, G. A., Syarifuddin, M., and Verolino, A.: Supplementary Material 1: Hazard model outputs, for Evaluating and ranking Southeast Asia's exposure to explosive volcanic hazards, Dataverse [data set], https://doi.org/10.21979/N9/B80UMQ, 2022a.
Jenkins, S. F., Biass, S., Williams, G. T., Hayes, J. L., Tennant, E., Yang, Q., Burgos, V., Meredith, E. S., Lerner, G. A., Syarifuddin, M., and Verolino, A.: Supplementary Material 2: Eruption frequency-magnitude, for Evaluating and ranking Southeast Asia's exposure to explosive volcanic hazards, Dataverse [data set], https://doi.org/10.21979/N9/CGKS6C, 2022b.
Jenkins, S. F., Biass, S., Williams, G. T., Hayes, J. L., Tennant, E., Yang, Q., Burgos, V., Meredith, E. S., Lerner, G. A., Syarifuddin, M., and Verolino, A.: Supplementary Material 3: Exposure results, for Evaluating and ranking Southeast Asia's exposure to explosive volcanic hazards, Dataverse [data set], https://doi.org/10.21979/N9/OUJPZQ, 2022c.
Julzarika, A.: Harintaka. Indonesian DEMNAS: DSM or DTM, in: Proceedings of the 2019 IEEE Asia-Pacific Conference on Geoscience, Electronics and Remote
Sensing Technology (AGERS), 26–27 August 2019, Jakarta, Indonesia, https://doi.org/10.1109/AGERS48446.2019.9034351, 2019.
Komorowski, J.-C., Jenkins, S., Baxter, P. J., Picquout, A., Lavigne, F.,
Charbonnier, S., Gertisser, R., Cholik, N., Budi-Santoso, A., and Surono:
Paroxysmal dome explosion during the Merapi 2010 eruption: processes and facies relationships of associated high-energy pyroclastic density currents,
J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 261, 260–294, 2013.
Koyaguchi, T. and Ohno, M.: Reconstruction of eruption column dynamics on
the basis of grain size of tephra fall deposits: 2. Application to the
Pinatubo 1991 eruption, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 106, 6513–6533, 2001.
Lavigne, F. and Thouret, J.-C.: Sediment transportation and deposition by
rain-triggered lahars at Merapi Volcano, Central Java, Indonesia, Geomorphology, 49, 45–69, 2003.
Lavigne, F., Thouret, J.-C., Hadmoko, D. S., and Sukatja, C. B.: Lahars in
Java: Initiations, dynamics, hazard assessment and deposition processes,
Forum Geografi (Terbitan Berkala Ilmiah/Scientific Periodicals), Forum Geografi, 17–32, https://doi.org/10.23917/forgeo.v21i1.1822, 2007.
Lerner, G. A., Jenkins, S. F., Charbonnier, S. J., Komorowski, J.-C., and
Baxter, P. J.: The hazards of unconfined pyroclastic density currents: A new
synthesis and classification according to their deposits, dynamics, and
thermal and impact characteristics, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 421, 107429,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2021.107429, 2022.
Macedonio, G. and Costa, A.: Brief Communication “Rain effect on the load of
tephra deposits”, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 1229–1233,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-1229-2012, 2012.
Magill, C. and Blong, R.: Volcanic risk ranking for Auckland, New Zealand.
I: Methodology and hazard investigation, Bull. Volcanol., 67, 331–339, 2005a.
Magill, C. and Blong, R.: Volcanic risk ranking for Auckland, New Zealand.
II: Hazard consequences and risk calculation, Bull. Volcanol., 67, 340–349, 2005b.
Malin, M. C. and Sheridan, M. F.: Computer-assisted mapping of pyroclastic surges, Science, 217, 637–640, 1982.
Mastin, L., Guffanti, M., Servranckx, R., Webley, P., Barsotti, S., Dean, K., Durant, A., Ewert, J., Neri, A., Rose, W., Schneider, D., Siebert, L., Stunder, B., Swanson, G., Tupper, A., Volentik, A., and Waythomas, C.: A
multidisciplinary effort to assign realistic source parameters to models of
volcanic ash-cloud transport and dispersion during eruptions, J. Volcanol.
Geoth. Res., 186, 10–21, 2009.
Miller, C. A.: Threat assessment of New Zealand's volcanoes and their current and future monitoring requirements, GNS Science Report 2010/55, 45 pp.,
https://shop.gns.cri.nz/sr_2010-055-pdf/ (last access: 4 March 2020), 2010.
Newhall, C. and Self, S.: The Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) – An estimate
of explosive magnitude for historical volcanism, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 87, 1231–1238, 1982.
Newhall, C. G. and Punongbayan, R. S.: Fire and mud: Eruptions and lahars of
Mount Pinatubo, Philippines, Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology and University of Washington Press, Quezon City, Seattle, London, 1126 pp., https://pubs.usgs.gov/pinatubo (last access: 6 April 2022), 1996.
Nieto-Torres, A., Guimarães, L. F., Bonadonna, C., and Frischknecht, C.:
A New Inclusive Volcanic Risk Ranking, Part 1: Methodology, Front. Earth Sci., 9, 672, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.697451, 2021.
Ogburn, S. E.: Flowdat: Mass flow database v2.2, Hosted by VHub at
https://vhub.org/groups/massflowdatabase (last access: 8 August 2021), 2016.
Ogburn, S. E. and Calder, E. S.: The relative effectiveness of empirical and
physical models for simulating the dense undercurrent of pyroclastic flows
under different emplacement conditions, Front. Earth Sci., 5, 83, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2017.00083, 2017.
Osman, S., Rossi, E., Bonadonna, C., Frischknecht, C., Andronico, D., Cioni, R., and Scollo, S.: Exposure-based risk assessment and emergency management associated with the fallout of large clasts at Mount Etna, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 589–610, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-589-2019, 2019.
Pallister, J. S., Bina, F. R., McCausland, W., Carn, S., Haerani, N., Griswold, J., and Keeler, R.: Recent explosive eruptions and volcano hazards
at Soputan volcano – a basalt stratovolcano in north Sulawesi, Indonesia,
Bull. Volcanol., 74, 1581–1609, 2012.
Pan, H., Shi, P., Ye, T., Xu, W., and Wang, J. A.: Mapping the expected annual fatality risk of volcano on a global scale, Int. J. Disast. Risk Reduct., 13, 52–60, 2015.
Pesaresi, M., Ehrilch, D., Florczyk, A. J., Freire, S., Julea, A., Kemper, T., Soille, P., and Syrris, V.: GHS built-up grid, derived from Landsat,
multitemporal (1975, 1990, 2000, 2014), JRC Data Catalogue, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, https://ghsl.jrc.ec.europa.eu/download.php (last access: 28 May 2020), 2015.
Pioli, L., Bonadonna, C., and Pistolesi, M.: Reliability of total grain-size
distribution of tephra deposits, Scient. Rep., 9, 1–15, 2019.
Poulidis, A. P., Biass, S., Bagheri, G., Takemi, T., and Iguchi, M.: Atmospheric vertical velocity-a crucial component in understanding proximal
deposition of volcanic ash, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 566, 116980, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2021.116980, 2021.
Ratdomopurbo, A., Beauducel, F., Subandriyo, J., Nandaka, I. M. A., Newhall,
C. G., Sayudi, D. S., and Suparwaka, H.: Overview of the 2006 eruption of
Mt. Merapi, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 261, 87–97, 2013.
Retnowati, D. A., Meilano, I., and Riqqi, A.: Modeling of Volcano Eruption
Risk toward Building Damage and Affected Population in Guntur, Indonesia, in:
2018 IEEE Asia-Pacific Conference on Geoscience, Electronics and Remote
Sensing Technology (AGERS), 18–19 September 2018, Jakarta, Indonesia,
1–7, https://doi.org/10.1109/AGERS.2018.8554097, 2018a.
Retnowati, D. A., Meilano, I., Virtriana, R., and Hanifa, N. R.: Volcanic
eruption risk for school building in Indonesia, in: AIP Conference Proceedings, 20–21 November 2017, Bandung, Indonesia,
https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5047382, 2018b.
Reyes, P. J. D., Bornas, M. A. V., Dominey-Howes, D., Pidlaoan, A. C., Magill, C. R., and Solidum Jr., R. U.: A synthesis and review of historical
eruptions at Taal Volcano, Southern Luzon, Philippines, Earth-Sci. Rev., 177, 565–588, 2018.
Rose, A. N., McKee, J. J., Urban, M. L., Bright, E. A., and Sims, K. M.:
LandScan 2018 (2018), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, https://landscan.ornl.gov/downloads/2018 (last access: 5 April 2022), 2019.
Rossi, E., Bonadonna, C., and Degruyter, W.: A new strategy for the estimation of plume height from clast dispersal in various atmospheric and eruptive conditions, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 505, 1–12, 2019.
Sandri, L., Costa, A., Selva, J., Tonini, R., Macedonio, G., Folch, A., and
Sulpizio, R.: Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard
from Neapolitan volcanoes, Scient. Rep., 6, 1–13, 2016.
Scaini, C., Felpeto, A., Marti, J., and Carniel, R.: A GIS-based methodology
for the estimation of potential volcanic damage and its application to Tenerife Island, Spain, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 278, 40–58, 2014.
Scandone, R., Bartolini, S., and Martí, J.: A scale for ranking volcanoes by risk, Bull. Volcanol., 78, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-015-0995-y, 2016.
Schilling, S.: LAHARZ: GIS Programs for automated mapping of lahar-inundation hazard zones, US Geological Survey Open-File Report 98-638, US Geological Survey, https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr98638, 1998.
Scollo, S., Tarantola, S., Bonadonna, C., Coltelli, M., and Saltelli, A.:
Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty estimation for tephra dispersal models,
J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 113, B06202, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006jb004864, 2008.
Silva, V., Amo-Oduro, D., Calderon, A., Costa, C., Dabbeek, J., Despotaki, V., Martins, L., Pagani, M., Rao, A., and Simionato, M.: Development of a global seismic risk model, Earthq. Spectra, 36, 372–394, 2020.
Simpson, A., Johnson, R. W., and Cummins, P.: Volcanic threat in developing
countries of the Asia–Pacific region: probabilistic hazard assessment, population risks, and information gaps, Nat. Hazards, 57, 151–165,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-010-9601-y, 2011.
Small, C. and Naumann, T.: The global distribution of human population and
recent volcanism, Environ. Hazards, 3, 93–109, 2001.
Solikhin, A., Thouret, J.-C., Gupta, A., Harris, A. J., and Liew, S. C.:
Geology, tectonics, and the 2002–2003 eruption of the Semeru volcano, Indonesia: Interpreted from high-spatial resolution satellite imagery,
Geomorphology, 138, 364–379, 2012.
Tennant, E., Jenkins, S. F., Winson, A., Widiwijayanti, C., Gunawan, H.,
Haerani, N., Kartadinata, N., Banggur, W., and Triastuti, H.: Reconstructing
eruptions at a data limited volcano: A case study at Gede (West Java), J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 418, 107325, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2021.107325, 2021.
Tennant, E., Jenkins, S. F., and Biass, S.: FlowDIR: a MATLAB tool for rapidly and probabilistically forecasting the travel directions of volcanic
flows, in preparation, 2022.
Thouret, J.-C., Lavigne, F., Suwa, H., and Sukatja, B.: Volcanic hazards at
Mount Semeru, East Java (Indonesia), with emphasis on lahars, Bull. Volcanol., 70, 221–244, 2007.
Tierz, P., Sandri, L., Costa, A., Zaccarelli, L., Di Vito, M. A., Sulpizio,
R., and Marzocchi, W.: Suitability of energy cone for probabilistic volcanic
hazard assessment: validation tests at Somma-Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei
(Italy), Bull. Volcanol., 78, 1–15, 2016.
Titos, M., Martínez Montesinos, B., Barsotti, S., Sandri, L., Folch, A., Mingari, L., Macedonio, G., and Costa, A.: Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 139–163,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022, 2022.
Voight, B.: Structural stability of andesite volcanoes and lava domes, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. Lond. A, 358, 1663–1703, 2000.
Voight, B., Constantine, E. K., Siswowidjoyo, S., and Torley, R.: Historical
eruptions of Merapi Volcano, Central Java, Indonesia, 1768–1998, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 100, 69–138, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0377-0273(00)00134-7, 2000.
Volentik, A.: Tephra transport, sedimentation and hazards, University of
South Florida, ProQuest Dissertations & Theses Global, 304995972, https://remotexs.ntu.edu.sg/user/login?url=https://www.proquest.com/docview/304995972?accountid=12665 (last access: 5 April 2022), 2009.
Walter, T. R., Ratdomopurbo, A., Aisyah, N., Brotopuspito, K. S., Salzer, J., and Lühr, B.: Dome growth and coulée spreading controlled by surface morphology, as determined by pixel offsets in photographs of the 2006 Merapi eruption, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 261, 121–129, 2013.
Whelley, P., Newhall, C., and Bradley, K.: The frequency of explosive volcanic eruptions in Southeast Asia, Bull. Volcanol., 77, 1–11,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-014-0893-8, 2015.
Widiwijayanti, C., Voight, B., Hidayat, D., and Schilling, S.: Objective rapid delineation of areas at risk from block-and-ash pyroclastic flows and
surges, Bull. Volcanol., 71, 687–703, 2009.
Williams, G. T., Kennedy, B. M., Lallemant, D., Wilson, T. M., Allen, N.,
Scott, A., and Jenkins, S. F.: Tephra cushioning of ballistic impacts: Quantifying building vulnerability through pneumatic cannon experiments and
multiple fragility curve fitting approaches, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 388, 106711, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2019.106711, 2019.
Williams, G. T., Jenkins, S. F., Biass, S., Wibowo, H. E., and Harijoko, A.:
Remotely assessing tephra fall building damage and vulnerability: Kelud Volcano, Indonesia, J. Appl. Volcanol., 9, 1–18, 2020.
Williams, G. T., Jenkins, S. F., Lee, D. W., and Wee, S. J.: How rainfall
influences tephra fall loading – an experimental approach, Bull. Volcanol., 83, 1–13, 2021.
Williams, R., Rowley, P., and Garthwaite, M. C.: Reconstructing the Anak
Krakatau flank collapse that caused the December 2018 Indonesian tsunami,
Geology, 47, 973–976, 2019.
Wilson, L., Sparks, R. S. J., Huang, T. C., and Watkins, N. D.: The control
of volcanic column heights by eruption energetics and dynamics, J. Geophys. Res., 83, 1829–1836, 1978.
Yoganandan, N., Pintar, F. A., Sances Jr, A., Walsh, P. R., Ewing, C. L., Thomas, D. J., and Snyder, R. G.: Biomechanics of skull fracture, J.
Neurotrauma, 12, 659–668, 1995.
Zorn, E. U., Le Corvec, N., Varley, N. R., Salzer, J. T., Walter, T. R.,
Navarro-Ochoa, C., Vargas-Bracamontes, D. M., Thiele, S. T., and Arámbula Mendoza, R.: Load stress controls on directional lava dome growth at Volcán de Colima, Mexico, Front. Earth Sci., 7, 84, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00084, 2019.
Short summary
There is a need for large-scale comparable assessments of volcanic threat, but previous approaches assume circular hazard to exposed population. Our approach quantifies and ranks five exposure types to four volcanic hazards for 40 volcanoes in Southeast Asia. Java has the highest median exposure, with Merapi consistently ranking as the highest-threat volcano. This study and the tools developed provide a road map with the possibility to extend them to other regions and/or towards impact and loss.
There is a need for large-scale comparable assessments of volcanic threat, but previous...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint