Articles | Volume 21, issue 7
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Leveraging multi-model season-ahead streamflow forecasts to trigger advanced flood preparedness in Peru
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
Climate Hazards Center, Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, USA
Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, 2521 CV, the Netherlands
Universidad Tecnológica del Perú (UTP), Lima, Peru
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
No articles found.
Donghoon Lee, Jia Yi Ng, Stefano Galelli, and Paul Block
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2431–2448,Short summary
To fully realize the potential of seasonal streamflow forecasts in the hydropower industry, we need to understand the relationship between reservoir design specifications, forecast skill, and value. Here, we rely on realistic forecasts and simulated hydropower operations for 753 dams worldwide to unfold such relationship. Our analysis shows how forecast skill affects hydropower production, what type of dams are most likely to benefit from seasonal forecasts, and where these dams are located.
Jamie Towner, Andrea Ficchí, Hannah L. Cloke, Juan Bazo, Erin Coughlan de Perez, and Elisabeth M. Stephens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3875–3895,Short summary
We examine whether several climate indices alter the magnitude, timing and duration of floods in the Amazon. We find significant changes in both flood magnitude and duration, particularly in the north-eastern Amazon for negative SST years in the central Pacific Ocean. This response is not repeated when the negative anomaly is positioned further east. These results have important implications for both social and physical sectors working towards the improvement of flood early warning systems.
Donghoon Lee, Hassan Ahmadul, Jonathan Patz, and Paul Block
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1807–1823,Short summary
This article assesses the thematic and composite social and health vulnerability of Bangladesh to floods. Tailored vulnerability, weighted by flood forecast and satellite inundation, can be used to predict the massive impacts of the August 2017 flood event. This approach has several advantages and practical implications, including the potential to promote targeted and coordinated disaster management and health practices.
Jamie Towner, Hannah L. Cloke, Ervin Zsoter, Zachary Flamig, Jannis M. Hoch, Juan Bazo, Erin Coughlan de Perez, and Elisabeth M. Stephens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3057–3080,Short summary
This study presents an intercomparison analysis of eight global hydrological models (GHMs), assessing their ability to simulate peak river flows in the Amazon basin. Results indicate that the meteorological input is the most influential component of the hydrological modelling chain, with the recent ERA-5 reanalysis dataset significantly improving the ability to simulate flood peaks in the Peruvian Amazon. In contrast, calibration of the Lisflood routing model was found to have no impact.
Eric Mortensen, Shu Wu, Michael Notaro, Stephen Vavrus, Rob Montgomery, José De Piérola, Carlos Sánchez, and Paul Block
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 287–303,Short summary
Some do not realize the intrinsic importance of water until there is no water left. This is the reality faced by people in southern Peru, a dry area of the world where several economic activities and cities vie for scarce water resources. With the developed season-ahead precipitation prediction model, stakeholders and decision makers in this region will have another tool in their belt to respond to and plan for the negative impacts brought on by drought.
Ying Zhang, Semu Moges, and Paul Block
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 143–157,Short summary
The study proposes advancing local-level seasonal rainfall predictions by first conditioning on regional-level predictions, as defined through cluster analysis. This statistical approach is applied to western Ethiopia, where lives and livelihoods are vulnerable to its high spatial–temporal rainfall variability, particularly given the high reliance on rain-fed agriculture. The statistical model improves in skills versus the non-clustered case or dynamical models for some critical regions.
Justin Delorit, Edmundo Cristian Gonzalez Ortuya, and Paul Block
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4711–4725,Short summary
This work provides forecasts of water supply for the semi-arid Elqui River Valley, Chile, at periods prior to the October–January growing season. Forecasts are constructed provide water rights holders, whose allocations are subject to annual change, with an advanced indication of expected allocations. Forecasts, based on global and local indicators, are best suited to provide an initial indication of allocation category (above, near, or below normal) in May and are quantified in September.
D. Lee, P. Ward, and P. Block
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4689–4705,Short summary
This paper presents a global approach to defining high-flow seasons by identifying temporal patterns of streamflow. Simulations of streamflow from the PCR-GLOBWB model are evaluated to define dominant and minor high-flow seasons globally, and verified with GRDC observations and flood records from Dartmouth Flood Observatory.
Related subject area
Hydrological HazardsHydrological drought forecasting under a changing environment in the Luanhe River basinA multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 2: Historical context and relation to climate changeBrief communication: The potential use of low-cost acoustic sensors to detect rainfall for short-term urban flood warningsBrief communication: On the extremeness of the July 2021 precipitation event in western GermanyA climate-conditioned catastrophe risk model for UK floodingA globally applicable framework for compound flood hazard modelingTransferability of data-driven models to predict urban pluvial flood water depth in Berlin, GermanyBrief communication: Inclusiveness in designing an early warning system for flood resilienceEvolution of multivariate drought hazard, vulnerability and risk in India under climate changeA multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 1: Event description and analysisBare-earth DEM generation from ArcticDEM and its use in flood simulationComparison of estimated flood exposure and consequences generated by different event-based inland flood inundation mapsHow uncertain are precipitation and peak flow estimates for the July 2021 flooding event?Estimating the likelihood of roadway pluvial flood based on crowdsourced traffic data and depression-based DEM analysisA multi-strategy-mode waterlogging-prediction framework for urban flood depthMultiscale flood risk assessment under climate change: the case of the Miño River in the city of Ourense, SpainInteractions between precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil-moisture-based indices to characterize drought with high-resolution remote sensing and land-surface model dataRare flood scenarios for a rapidly growing high-mountain city: Pokhara, NepalBrief communication: Impact forecasting could substantially improve the emergency management of deadly floods: case study July 2021 floods in GermanyBrief communication: Western Europe flood in 2021 – mapping agriculture flood exposure from synthetic aperture radar (SAR)Comprehensive space–time hydrometeorological simulations for estimating very rare floods at multiple sites in a large river basinA new index to quantify the extremeness of precipitation across scalesEffectiveness of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 for flood detection assessment in EuropeAssessing flood hazard changes using climate model forcingA methodological framework for the evaluation of short-range flash-flood hydrometeorological forecasts at the event scaleCharacterizing multivariate coastal flooding events in a semi-arid region: the implications of copula choice, sampling, and infrastructureDifferent drought types and the spatial variability in their hazard, impact, and propagation characteristicsMore than heavy rain turning into fast-flowing water – a landscape perspective on the 2021 Eifel floodsIntegrated drought risk assessment to support adaptive policymaking in the NetherlandsINSYDE-BE: adaptation of the INSYDE model to the Walloon region (Belgium)Assessing flooding impact to riverine bridges: an integrated analysisWarming of 0.5 °C may cause double the economic loss and increase the population affected by floods in ChinaFirst application of the Integrated Karst Aquifer Vulnerability (IKAV) method – potential and actual vulnerability in Yucatán, MexicoBrief communication: Seismological analysis of flood dynamics and hydrologically triggered earthquake swarms associated with Storm AlexSystem vulnerability to flood events and risk assessment of railway systems based on national and river basin scales in ChinaMachine-learning blends of geomorphic descriptors: value and limitations for flood hazard assessment across large floodplainsA performance-based approach to quantify atmospheric river flood riskEstimating soil moisture conditions for drought monitoring with random forests and a simple soil moisture accounting schemeExtreme-coastal-water-level estimation and projection: a comparison of statistical methodsSpatiotemporal evolution and meteorological triggering conditions of hydrological drought in the Hun River basin, NE ChinaThe Cambodian Mekong floodplain under future development plans and climate changeGeo-historical database of flood impacts in Alpine catchments (HIFAVa database, Arve River, France, 1850–2015)Compound flood modeling framework for surface–subsurface water interactionsAssessing tropical cyclone compound flood risk using hydrodynamic modelling: a case study in Haikou City, ChinaAn approach to identify the best climate models for the assessment of climate change impacts on meteorological and hydrological droughtsFlash flood warnings in context: combining local knowledge and large-scale hydro-meteorological patternsA comparative flood damage and risk impact assessment of land use changesTemporal changes in rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for post-wildfire flash floods in southern CaliforniaCompound inland flood events: different pathways, different impacts and different coping optionsReview article: Factors leading to the occurrence of flood fatalities: a systematic review of research papers published between 2010 and 2020
Min Li, Mingfeng Zhang, Runxiang Cao, Yidi Sun, and Xiyuan Deng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1453–1464,Short summary
It is an important disaster reduction strategy to forecast hydrological drought. In order to analyse the impact of human activities on hydrological drought, we constructed the human activity factor based on the method of restoration. With the increase of human index (HI) value, hydrological droughts tend to transition to more severe droughts. The conditional distribution model involving of human activity factor can further improve the forecasting accuracy of drought in the Luanhe River basin.
Patrick Ludwig, Florian Ehmele, Mário J. Franca, Susanna Mohr, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Uwe Ehret, Hendrik Feldmann, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Michael Kunz, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1287–1311,Short summary
Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring countries. The event was among the five heaviest precipitation events of the past 70 years in Germany, and the river discharges exceeded by far the statistical 100-year return values. Simulations of the event under future climate conditions revealed a strong and non-linear effect on flood peaks: for +2 K global warming, an 18 % increase in rainfall led to a 39 % increase of the flood peak in the Ahr river.
Nadav Peleg, Herminia Torelló-Sentelles, Grégoire Mariéthoz, Lionel Benoit, João P. Leitão, and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1233–1240,Short summary
Floods in urban areas are one of the most common natural hazards. Due to climate change enhancing extreme rainfall and cities becoming larger and denser, the impacts of these events are expected to increase. A fast and reliable flood warning system should thus be implemented in flood-prone cities to warn the public of upcoming floods. The purpose of this brief communication is to discuss the potential implementation of low-cost acoustic rainfall sensors in short-term flood warning systems.
Katharina Lengfeld, Paul Voit, Frank Kaspar, and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1227–1232,Short summary
Estimating the severity of a rainfall event based on the damage caused is easy but highly depends on the affected region. A less biased measure for the extremeness of an event is its rarity combined with its spatial extent. In this brief communication, we investigate the sensitivity of such measures to the underlying dataset and highlight the importance of considering multiple spatial and temporal scales using the devastating rainfall event in July 2021 in central Europe as an example.
Paul D. Bates, James Savage, Oliver Wing, Niall Quinn, Christopher Sampson, Jeffrey Neal, and Andrew Smith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 891–908,Short summary
We present and validate a model that simulates current and future flood risk for the UK at high resolution (~ 20–25 m). We show that UK flood losses were ~ 6 % greater in the climate of 2020 compared to recent historical values. The UK can keep any future increase to ~ 8 % if all countries implement their COP26 pledges and net-zero ambitions in full. However, if only the COP26 pledges are fulfilled, then UK flood losses increase by ~ 23 %; and potentially by ~ 37 % in a worst-case scenario.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Tim Leijnse, Hiroaki Ikeuchi, Dai Yamazaki, Sanne Muis, Job Dullaart, Arjen Haag, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 823–846,Short summary
In coastal deltas, flooding can occur from interactions between coastal, riverine, and pluvial drivers, so-called compound flooding. Global models however ignore these interactions. We present a framework for automated and reproducible compound flood modeling anywhere globally and validate it for two historical events in Mozambique with good results. The analysis reveals differences in compound flood dynamics between both events related to the magnitude of and time lag between drivers.
Omar Seleem, Georgy Ayzel, Axel Bronstert, and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 809–822,Short summary
Data-driven models are becoming more of a surrogate that overcomes the limitations of the computationally expensive 2D hydrodynamic models to map urban flood hazards. However, the model's ability to generalize outside the training domain is still a major challenge. We evaluate the performance of random forest and convolutional neural networks to predict urban floodwater depth and investigate their transferability outside the training domain.
Tahmina Yasmin, Kieran Khamis, Anthony Ross, Subir Sen, Anita Sharma, Debashish Sen, Sumit Sen, Wouter Buytaert, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 667–674,Short summary
Floods continue to be a wicked problem that require developing early warning systems with plausible assumptions of risk behaviour, with more targeted conversations with the community at risk. Through this paper we advocate the use of a SMART approach to encourage bottom-up initiatives to develop inclusive and purposeful early warning systems that benefit the community at risk by engaging them at every step of the way along with including other stakeholders at multiple scales of operations.
Venkataswamy Sahana and Arpita Mondal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 623–641,Short summary
In an agriculture-dependent, densely populated country such as India, drought risk projection is important to assess future water security. This study presents the first comprehensive drought risk assessment over India, integrating hazard and vulnerability information. Future drought risk is found to be more significantly driven by increased vulnerability resulting from societal developments rather than climate-induced changes in hazard. These findings can inform planning for drought resilience.
Susanna Mohr, Uwe Ehret, Michael Kunz, Patrick Ludwig, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Mário J. Franca, Christian Gattke, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Marc Scheibel, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 525–551,Short summary
The flood event in July 2021 was one of the most severe disasters in Europe in the last half century. The objective of this two-part study is a multi-disciplinary assessment that examines the complex process interactions in different compartments, from meteorology to hydrological conditions to hydro-morphological processes to impacts on assets and environment. In addition, we address the question of what measures are possible to generate added value to early response management.
Yinxue Liu, Paul D. Bates, and Jeffery C. Neal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 375–391,Short summary
In this paper, we test two approaches for removing buildings and other above-ground objects from a state-of-the-art satellite photogrammetry topography product, ArcticDEM. Our best technique gives a 70 % reduction in vertical error, with an average difference of 1.02 m from a benchmark lidar for the city of Helsinki, Finland. When used in a simulation of rainfall-driven flooding, the bare-earth version of ArcticDEM yields a significant improvement in predicted inundation extent and water depth.
Joseph L. Gutenson, Ahmad A. Tavakoly, Mohammad S. Islam, Oliver E. J. Wing, William P. Lehman, Chase O. Hamilton, Mark D. Wahl, and T. Christopher Massey
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 261–277,Short summary
Emergency managers use event-based flood inundation maps (FIMs) to plan and coordinate flood emergency response. We perform a case study test of three different FIM frameworks to see if FIM differences lead to substantial differences in the location and magnitude of flood exposure and consequences. We find that the FIMs are very different spatially and that the spatial differences do produce differences in the location and magnitude of exposure and consequences.
Mohamed Saadi, Carina Furusho-Percot, Alexandre Belleflamme, Ju-Yu Chen, Silke Trömel, and Stefan Kollet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 159–177,Short summary
On 14 July 2021, heavy rainfall fell over central Europe, causing considerable damage and human fatalities. We analyzed how accurate our estimates of rainfall and peak flow were for these flooding events in western Germany. We found that the rainfall estimates from radar measurements were improved by including polarimetric variables and their vertical gradients. Peak flow estimates were highly uncertain due to uncertainties in hydrological model parameters and rainfall measurements.
Arefeh Safaei-Moghadam, David Tarboton, and Barbara Minsker
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1–19,Short summary
Climate change, urbanization, and aging infrastructure contribute to flooding on roadways. This study evaluates the potential for flood reports collected from Waze – a community-based navigation app – to predict these events. Waze reports correlate primarily with low-lying depressions on roads. Therefore, we developed two data-driven models to determine whether roadways will flood. Analysis showed that in the city of Dallas, drainage area and imperviousness are the most significant contributors.
Zongjia Zhang, Jun Liang, Yujue Zhou, Zhejun Huang, Jie Jiang, Junguo Liu, and Lili Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4139–4165,Short summary
An innovative multi-strategy-mode waterlogging-prediction framework for predicting waterlogging depth is proposed in the paper. The framework selects eight regression algorithms for comparison and tests the prediction accuracy and robustness of the model under different prediction strategies. Ultimately, the accuracy of predicting water depth after 30 min can exceed 86.1 %. This can aid decision-making in terms of issuing early warning information and determining emergency responses in advance.
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Orlando García-Feal, José González-Cao, Maite deCastro, and Moncho Gómez-Gesteira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3957–3972,Short summary
A multiscale analysis, where the historical and future precipitation data from the CORDEX project were used as input in a hydrological model (HEC-HMS) that, in turn, feeds a 2D hydraulic model (Iber+), was applied to the case of the Miño-Sil basin (NW Spain), specifically to Ourense city, in order to analyze future changes in flood hazard. Detailed flood maps indicate an increase in the frequency and intensity of future floods, implying an increase in flood hazard in important areas of the city.
Jaime Gaona, Pere Quintana-Seguí, María José Escorihuela, Aaron Boone, and María Carmen Llasat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3461–3485,Short summary
Droughts represent a particularly complex natural hazard and require explorations of their multiple causes. Part of the complexity has roots in the interaction between the continuous changes in and deviation from normal conditions of the atmosphere and the land surface. The exchange between the atmospheric and surface conditions defines feedback towards dry or wet conditions. In semi-arid environments, energy seems to exceed water in its impact over the evolution of conditions, favoring drought.
Melanie Fischer, Jana Brettin, Sigrid Roessner, Ariane Walz, Monique Fort, and Oliver Korup
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3105–3123,Short summary
Nepal’s second-largest city has been rapidly growing since the 1970s, although its valley has been affected by rare, catastrophic floods in recent and historic times. We analyse potential impacts of such floods on urban areas and infrastructure by modelling 10 physically plausible flood scenarios along Pokhara’s main river. We find that hydraulic effects would largely affect a number of squatter settlements, which have expanded rapidly towards the river by a factor of up to 20 since 2008.
Heiko Apel, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3005–3014,Short summary
The paper presents a fast 2D hydraulic simulation model for flood propagation that enables operational forecasts of spatially distributed inundation depths, flood extent, flow velocities, and other flood impacts. The detailed spatial forecast of floods and flood impacts is a large step forward from the currently operational forecasts of discharges at selected gauges, thus enabling a more targeted flood management and early warning.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2921–2927,Short summary
This study depicts the flood-affected areas in western Europe in July 2021 and particularly the agriculture land that was under flood inundation. The results indicate that the total inundated area over western Europe is about 1920 km2, of which 1320 km2 is in France. Around 64 % of the inundated area is agricultural land. We expect that the agricultural productivity in western Europe will have been severely impacted.
Daniel Viviroli, Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner, Guillaume Evin, Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Jérémy Chardon, Anne-Catherine Favre, Benoit Hingray, Gilles Nicolet, Damien Raynaud, Jan Seibert, Rolf Weingartner, and Calvin Whealton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2891–2920,Short summary
Estimating the magnitude of rare to very rare floods is a challenging task due to a lack of sufficiently long observations. The challenge is even greater in large river basins, where precipitation patterns and amounts differ considerably between individual events and floods from different parts of the basin coincide. We show that a hydrometeorological model chain can provide plausible estimates in this setting and can thus inform flood risk and safety assessments for critical infrastructure.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2791–2805,Short summary
To better understand how the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events (HPEs) will change with changing climate and to adapt disaster risk management accordingly, we have to quantify the extremeness of HPEs in a reliable way. We introduce the xWEI (cross-scale WEI) and show that this index can reveal important characteristics of HPEs that would otherwise remain hidden. We conclude that the xWEI could be a valuable instrument in both disaster risk management and research.
Angelica Tarpanelli, Alessandro C. Mondini, and Stefania Camici
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2473–2489,Short summary
We analysed 10 years of river discharge data from almost 2000 sites in Europe, and we extracted flood events, as proxies of flood inundations, based on the overpasses of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellites to derive the percentage of potential inundation events that they were able to observe. Results show that on average 58 % of flood events are potentially observable by Sentinel-1 and only 28 % by Sentinel-2 due to the obstacle of cloud coverage.
David P. Callaghan and Michael G. Hughes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2459–2472,Short summary
A new method was developed to estimate changes in flood hazard under climate change. We use climate projections covering New South Wales, Australia, with two emission paths of business as usual and one with reduced emissions. We apply our method to the lower floodplain of the Gwydir Valley with changes in flood hazard provided over the next 90 years compared with the previous 50 years. We find that changes in flood hazard decrease over time within the Gwydir Valley floodplain.
Maryse Charpentier-Noyer, Daniela Peredo, Axelle Fleury, Hugo Marchal, François Bouttier, Eric Gaume, Pierre Nicolle, Olivier Payrastre, and Maria-Helena Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript under review for NHESSShort summary
This paper proposes a methodological framework designed for the event-based evaluation in the context of an intense flash-flood event. The evaluation adopts the point of view of end-users, with a focus on anticipation of exceedances of discharge thresholds. With a study of rainfall forecasts, a discharge evaluation and a detailed look at the forecast hydrographs, the evaluation framework should contribute to draw robust conclusions about the usefulness of newly rainfall ensemble forecasts.
Joseph T. D. Lucey and Timu W. Gallien
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2145–2167,Short summary
Coastal flooding can result from multiple flood drivers (e.g., tides, waves, river flows, rainfall) occurring at the same time. This study characterizes flooding events caused by high marine water levels and rain. Results show that wet-season coinciding sampling may better describe extreme flooding events in a dry, tidally dominated region. A joint-probability-based function is then used to estimate sea wall impacts on urban coastal flooding.
Erik Tijdeman, Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lucas Menzel, and Kerstin Stahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2099–2116,Short summary
We identified different drought types with typical hazard and impact characteristics. The summer drought type with compounding heat was most impactful. Regional drought propagation of this drought type exhibited typical characteristics that can guide drought management. However, we also found a large spatial variability that caused distinct differences among propagating drought signals. Accordingly, local multivariate drought information was needed to explain the full range of drought impacts.
Michael Dietze, Rainer Bell, Ugur Ozturk, Kristen L. Cook, Christoff Andermann, Alexander R. Beer, Bodo Damm, Ana Lucia, Felix S. Fauer, Katrin M. Nissen, Tobias Sieg, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1845–1856,Short summary
The flood that hit Europe in July 2021, specifically the Eifel, Germany, was more than a lot of fast-flowing water. The heavy rain that fell during the 3 d before also caused the slope to fail, recruited tree trunks that clogged bridges, and routed debris across the landscape. Especially in the upper parts of the catchments the flood was able to gain momentum. Here, we discuss how different landscape elements interacted and highlight the challenges of holistic future flood anticipation.
Marjolein J. P. Mens, Gigi van Rhee, Femke Schasfoort, and Neeltje Kielen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1763–1776,Short summary
Many countries have to prepare for droughts by proposing policy actions to increase water supply, reduce water demand, or limit the societal impact. Societal cost–benefit analysis is required to support decision-making for a range of future scenarios, accounting for climate change and socio-economic developments. This paper presents a framework to assess drought policy actions based on quantification of drought risk and exemplifies it for the Netherlands’ drought risk management strategy.
Anna Rita Scorzini, Benjamin Dewals, Daniela Rodriguez Castro, Pierre Archambeau, and Daniela Molinari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1743–1761,Short summary
This study presents a replicable procedure for the adaptation of synthetic, multi-variable flood damage models among countries that may have different hazard and vulnerability features. The procedure is exemplified here for the case of adaptation to the Belgian context of a flood damage model, INSYDE, for the residential sector, originally developed for Italy. The study describes necessary changes in model assumptions and input parameters to properly represent the new context of implementation.
Maria Pregnolato, Andrew O. Winter, Dakota Mascarenas, Andrew D. Sen, Paul Bates, and Michael R. Motley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1559–1576,Short summary
The interaction of flow, structure and network is complex, and yet to be fully understood. This study aims to establish rigorous practices of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) for modelling hydrodynamic forces on inundated bridges, and understanding the consequences of such impacts on the surrounding network. The objectives of this study are to model hydrodynamic forces as the demand on the bridge structure, to advance a structural reliability and network-level analysis.
Lulu Liu, Jiangbo Gao, and Shaohong Wu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1577–1590,Short summary
The impact of extreme events is increasing with global warming. Based on future scenario data and an improved quantitative assessment model of natural-disaster risk, this study analyses the spatial and temporal patterns of floods in China at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming, quantitatively assesses the socioeconomic risks posed by floods, and determines the integrated risk levels. Global warming of 1.5 °C can effectively reduce the population affected and the economic risks of floods.
Miguel Moreno-Gómez, Carolina Martínez-Salvador, Rudolf Liedl, Catalin Stefan, and Julia Pacheco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1591–1608,Short summary
Current vulnerability methods, as tools to protect groundwater resources from pollution, present some limitations and drawbacks: the roles of population and economic activities are not considered by such methods. The methodology presented in this work combines natural characteristics and human-driven conditions of a given region to improve the process of groundwater vulnerability analysis. Results indicate the reliability of this alternative method to improve groundwater protection strategies.
Małgorzata Chmiel, Maxime Godano, Marco Piantini, Pierre Brigode, Florent Gimbert, Maarten Bakker, Françoise Courboulex, Jean-Paul Ampuero, Diane Rivet, Anthony Sladen, David Ambrois, and Margot Chapuis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1541–1558,Short summary
On 2 October 2020, the French Maritime Alps were struck by an extreme rainfall event caused by Storm Alex. Here, we show that seismic data provide the timing and velocity of the propagation of flash-flood waves along the Vésubie River. We also detect 114 small local earthquakes triggered by the rainwater weight and/or its infiltration into the ground. This study paves the way for future works that can reveal further details of the impact of Storm Alex on the Earth’s surface and subsurface.
Weihua Zhu, Kai Liu, Ming Wang, Philip J. Ward, and Elco E. Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1519–1540,Short summary
We present a simulation framework to analyse the system vulnerability and risk of the Chinese railway system to floods. To do so, we develop a method for generating flood events at both the national and river basin scale. Results show flood system vulnerability and risk of the railway system are spatially heterogeneous. The event-based approach shows how we can identify critical hotspots, taking the first steps in developing climate-resilient infrastructure.
Andrea Magnini, Michele Lombardi, Simone Persiano, Antonio Tirri, Francesco Lo Conti, and Attilio Castellarin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1469–1486,Short summary
We retrieve descriptors of the terrain morphology from a digital elevation model of a 105 km2 study area and blend them through decision tree models to map flood susceptibility and expected water depth. We investigate this approach with particular attention to (a) the comparison with a selected single-descriptor approach, (b) the goodness of decision trees, and (c) the performance of these models when applied to data-scarce regions. We find promising pathways for future research.
Corinne Bowers, Katherine A. Serafin, and Jack Baker
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1371–1393,Short summary
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) cause significant flooding on the US west coast. We present a new Performance-based Atmospheric River Risk Analysis (PARRA) framework that connects models of atmospheric forcings, hydrologic impacts, and economic consequences to better estimate losses from AR-induced river flooding. We apply the PARRA framework to a case study in Sonoma County, CA, USA, and show that the framework can quantify the potential benefit of flood mitigation actions such as home elevation.
Yves Tramblay and Pere Quintana Seguí
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1325–1334,Short summary
Monitoring soil moisture is important during droughts, but very few measurements are available. Consequently, land-surface models are essential tools for reproducing soil moisture dynamics. In this study, a hybrid approach allowed for regionalizing soil water content using a machine learning method. This approach proved to be efficient, compared to the use of soil property maps, to run a simple soil moisture accounting model, and therefore it can be applied in various regions.
Maria Francesca Caruso and Marco Marani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1109–1128,Short summary
We comparatively evaluate the predictive performance of traditional and new approaches to estimate the probability distributions of extreme coastal water levels. The metastatistical approach maximizes the use of observational information and provides reliable estimates of high quantiles with respect to traditional methods. Leveraging the increased estimation accuracy afforded by this approach, we investigate future changes in the frequency of extreme total water levels.
Shupeng Yue, Xiaodan Sheng, and Fengtian Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 995–1014,Short summary
To develop drought assessment and early warning systems, it is necessary to explore the characteristics of drought and its propagation process. In this article, a generalized and efficient drought research framework is studied and verified. It includes the evaluation of the spatiotemporal evolution, the construction of the return period calculation model, and the quantitative analysis of the meteorological trigger conditions of drought based on an improved Bayesian network model.
Alexander J. Horton, Nguyen V. K. Triet, Long P. Hoang, Sokchhay Heng, Panha Hok, Sarit Chung, Jorma Koponen, and Matti Kummu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 967–983,Short summary
We studied the cumulative impact of future development and climate change scenarios on discharge and floods in the Cambodian Mekong floodplain. We found that hydropower impacts dominate, acting in opposition to climate change impacts to drastically increase dry season flows and reduce wet season flows even when considering the higher RCP8.5 level. The consequent reduction in flood extent and duration may reduce regional flood risk but may also have negative impacts on floodplain productivity.
Eva Boisson, Bruno Wilhelm, Emmanuel Garnier, Alain Mélo, Sandrine Anquetin, and Isabelle Ruin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 831–847,Short summary
We present the database of Historical Impacts of Floods in the Arve Valley (HIFAVa). It reports flood occurrences and impacts (1850–2015) in a French Alpine catchment. Our results show an increasing occurrence of impacts from 1920 onwards, which is more likely related to indirect source effects and/or increasing exposure rather than hydrological changes. The analysis reveals that small mountain streams caused more impacts (67 %) than the main river.
Francisco Peña, Fernando Nardi, Assefa Melesse, Jayantha Obeysekera, Fabio Castelli, René M. Price, Todd Crowl, and Noemi Gonzalez-Ramirez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 775–793,Short summary
Groundwater-induced flooding, a rare phenomenon that is increasing in low-elevation coastal cities due to higher water tables, is often neglected in flood risk mapping due to its sporadic frequency and considerably lower severity with respect to other flood hazards. A loosely coupled flood model is used to simulate the interplay between surface and subsurface flooding mechanisms simultaneously. This work opens new horizons on the development of compound flood models from a holistic perspective.
Qing Liu, Hanqing Xu, and Jun Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 665–675,Short summary
The coastal area is a major floodplain in compound flood events in coastal cities, primarily due to storm tide, with the inundation severity positively correlated with the height of the storm tide. Simply accumulating every single-driven flood hazard (rainstorm inundation and storm tide flooding) to define the compound flood hazard may cause underestimation. The assessment of tropical cyclone compound flood risk can provide vital insight for research on coastal flooding prevention.
Antonio-Juan Collados-Lara, Juan-de-Dios Gómez-Gómez, David Pulido-Velazquez, and Eulogio Pardo-Igúzquiza
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 599–616,Short summary
This work studies the benefit of using more reliable local climate scenarios to analyse hydrological impacts. It has been applied in the Cenajo basin (south-eastern Spain), where we showed that the best approximations of the historical meteorology also provide the best approximations of the hydrology. The two selected climate models predict worrying changes in precipitation, temperature, streamflows and meteorological and hydrological droughts for the period 2071–2100 under the RCP8.5.
Agathe Bucherie, Micha Werner, Marc van den Homberg, and Simon Tembo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 461–480,Short summary
Local communities in northern Malawi have well-developed knowledge of the conditions leading to flash floods, spatially and temporally. Scientific analysis of catchment geomorphology and global reanalysis datasets corroborates this local knowledge, underlining the potential of these large-scale scientific datasets. Combining local knowledge with contemporary scientific datasets provides a common understanding of flash flood events, contributing to a more people-centred warning to flash floods.
Karen Gabriels, Patrick Willems, and Jos Van Orshoven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 395–410,Short summary
As land use influences hydrological processes (e.g., forests have a high water retention and infiltration capacity), it also impacts floods downstream in the river system. This paper demonstrates an approach quantifying the impact of land use changes on economic flood damages: damages in an initial situation are quantified and compared to damages of simulated floods associated with a land use change scenario. This approach can be used as an explorative tool in sustainable flood risk management.
Tao Liu, Luke A. McGuire, Nina Oakley, and Forest Cannon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 361–376,Short summary
A well-constrained rainfall-runoff model forced by radar-derived precipitation is used to define rainfall intensity-duration (ID) thresholds for flash floods. The rainfall ID doubles in 5 years after a severe wildfire in a watershed in southern California, USA. Rainfall ID performs stably well for intense pulses of rainfall over durations of 30-60 minutes that cover at least 15%-25% of the watershed. This finding could help issuing flash flood warnings based on radar-derived precipitation.
Annegret H. Thieken, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Heidi Kreibich, and Meike Müller
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 165–185,Short summary
Various floods hit Germany recently. While there was a river flood with some dike breaches in 2013, flooding in 2016 resulted directly from heavy rainfall, causing overflowing drainage systems in urban areas and destructive flash floods in steep catchments. Based on survey data, we analysed how residents coped with these different floods. We observed significantly different flood impacts, warnings, behaviour and recovery, offering entry points for tailored risk communication and support.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 71–83,Short summary
This systematic review highlights flood mortality factors and the strategies to mitigate them, as obtained from 44 scientific articles published between 2010 and 2020. The findings are the classification of flood mortality drivers in two groups and the identification of strategies to cope with them. Future studies should fill the data gaps regarding flood fatalities in developing countries and information on people who have survived floods, which can be useful in educational campaigns.
Aguirre, J., De La Torre Ugarte, D., Bazo, J., Quequezana, P., and Collado, M.: Evaluation of early action mechanisms in Peru regarding preparedness for El Niño, Int. J. Disaster Risk Sci., 10, 493–510, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-019-00245-x, 2019.
Ali, M., Prasad, R., Xiang, Y., and Mundher Yaseen, Z.: Complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition hybridized with random forest and kernel ridge regression model for monthly rainfall forecasts, J. Hydrol., 584, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124647, 2020.
Asefa, T., Kemblowski, M., Mckee, M., and Khalil, A.: Multi-time scale stream flow predictions: The support vector machines approach, J. Hydrol., 318, 7–16, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.06.001, 2006.
Aybar, C., Fernández, C., Huerta, A., Lavado, W., Vega, F., and Felipe-Obando, O.: Construction of a high-resolution gridded rainfall dataset for Peru from 1981 to the present day, Hydrol. Sci. J., 65, 770–785, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.1649411, 2020.
Badr, H. S., Zaitchik, B. F., and Guikema, S. D.: Application of statistical models to the prediction of seasonal rainfall anomalies over the Sahel, J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., 53, 614–636, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-13-0181.1, 2013.
Bayer, A. M., Danysh, H. E., Garvich, M., Gonzálvez, G., Checkley, W., Álvarez, M., and Gilman, R. H.: An unforgettable event: a qualitative study of the 1997–98 El Niño in northern Peru, Disasters, 38, 351–375, https://doi.org/10.1111/disa.12046, 2014.
Bazo, J., de las Nieves Lorenzo, M., and Porfirio da Rocha, R.: Relationship between monthly rainfall in NW Peru and tropical sea surface temperature, Adv. Meteorol., 2013, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1155/2013/152875, 2013.
Bazo, J., Singh, R., Destrooper, M., and Coughlan de Perez, E.: Pilot experiences in using seamless forecasts for early action: The “ready-set-go!” approach in the Red Cross, in: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction, edited by: Robertson, A. W. and Vitart, F., Elsevier, Amsterdam, the Netherlands, 387–398, 2019.
BBC News: Peru floods: Four killed as Piura bursts its banks, BBC News, 27 March, available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-39418314 (last access: 21 May 2020), 2017.
Bischiniotis, K., van den Hurk, B., Zsoter, E., Coughlan De Perez, E., Grillakis, M., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Evaluation of a global ensemble flood prediction system in Peru, Hydrol. Sci. J., 64, 1171–1189, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.1617868, 2019.
Block, P. and Rajagopalan, B.: Statistical – dynamical approach for streamflow modeling at Malakal, Sudan, on the White Nile River, J. Hydrol. Eng., 14, 185–196, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2009)14:2(185), 2009.
Block, P. J., Assis, F., Filho, S., Sun, L., and Kwon, H.: A streamflow forecasting framework using multiple climate and hydrological models, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 45, 828–843, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00327.x, 2009.
Bohn, T., Sonessa, M., and Lettenmaier, D.: Seasonal hydrologic forecasting: Do multimodel ensemble averages always yield improvements in forecast skill?, J. Hydrometeorol., 11, 1358–1372, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JHM1267.1, 2010.
Braman, L. M., Aalst, M. K. Van, Mason, S. J., Suarez, P., Ait-Chellouche, Y., and Tall, A.: Climate forecasts in disaster management: Red Cross flood operations in West Africa, 2008, Disasters, 37, 144–164, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7717.2012.01297.x, 2013.
Cabot Venton, C., Fitzgibbon, C., Shitarek, T., Coulter, L., and Dooley, O.: The economics of early response and disaster resilience: Lessons from Kenya and Ethiopia, Department for International Development, London, UK, 2012.
Caviedes, C. N.: El Niño 1982–83, Geogr. Rev., 74, 267–290, 1984.
Cohen, J., Coumou, D., Hwang, J., Mackey, L., Orenstein, P., Totz, S., and Tziperman, E.: S2S reboot: An argument for greater inclusion of machine learning in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts, Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Clim. Chang., 10, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.567, 2019.
Coughlan de Perez, E., van den Hurk, B., van Aalst, M. K., Amuron, I., Bamanya, D., Hauser, T., Jongma, B., Lopez, A., Mason, S., Mendler de Suarez, J., Pappenberger, F., Rueth, A., Stephens, E., Suarez, P., Wagemaker, J., and Zsoter, E.: Action-based flood forecasting for triggering humanitarian action, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3549–3560, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3549-2016, 2016.
Doocy, S., Daniels, A., Murray, S., and Kirsch, T. D.: The human impact of floods: a historical review of events 1980–2009 and systematic literature review, PLOS Curr. Disasters, 16 April 2013, Edition 1, https://doi.org/10.1371/currents.dis.f4deb457904936b07c09daa98ee8171a, 2013.
EM-DAT: Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), available at: https://www.emdat.be/ (last access: 3 March 2020), 1988.
Emerton, R., Zsoter, E., Arnal, L., Cloke, H. L., Muraro, D., Prudhomme, C., Stephens, E. M., Salamon, P., and Pappenberger, F.: Developing a global operational seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system: GloFAS-Seasonal v1.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3327–3346, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3327-2018, 2018.
Espinoza Villar, J. C., Guyot, J. L., Ronchail, J., Cochonneau, G., Filizola, N., Fraizy, P., Labat, D., de Oliveira, E., Ordoñez, J. J., and Vauchel, P.: Contrasting regional discharge evolutions in the Amazon basin (1974–2004), J. Hydrol., 375, 297–311, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.03.004, 2009.
Fan, Y. and van den Dool, H.: Climate Prediction Center global monthly soil moisture data set at 0.5∘ resolution for 1948 to present, J. Geophys. Res., 109, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD004345, 2004.
French, A. and Mechler, R.: Managing El Niño Risks Under Uncertainty in Peru: Learning from the past for a more disaster-resilient future, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 2017.
Funk, C., Peterson, P., Landsfeld, M., Pedreros, D., Verdin, J., Shukla, S., Husak, G., Rowland, J., Harrison, L., Hoell, A., and Michaelsen, J.: The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations – a new environmental record for monitoring extremes, Sci. Data, 2, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.66, 2015.
Gámiz-Fortis, S. R., Esteban-Parra, M. J., Trigo, R. M., and Castro-Díez, Y.: Potential predictability of an Iberian river flow based on its relationship with previous winter global SST, J. Hydrol., 385, 143–149, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.02.010, 2010.
Garreaud, R. D., Vuille, M., Compagnucci, R., and Marengo, J.: Present-day South American climate, Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl., 281, 180–195, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2007.10.032, 2009.
Giuliani, M., Zaniolo, M., Castelletti, A., Davoli, G., and Block, P.: Detecting the state of the climate system via artificial intelligence to improve seasonal forecasts and inform reservoir operations, Water Resour. Res., 55, 9133–9147, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR025035, 2019.
Gneiting, T. and Raftery, A. E.: Weather forecasting with ensemble methods, Science, 310, 248–249, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1115255, 2005.
Golnaraghi, M.: Institutional Partnerships in Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems: A Compilation of Seven National Good Practices and Guiding Principles, Springer, New York, USA, 2012.
Gros, C., Bailey, M., Schwager, S., Hassan, A., Zingg, R., Mamtaz Uddin, M., Shahjahan, M., Islam, H., Lux, S., Jaime, C., and Coughlan de Perez, E.: Household-level effects of providing forecast-based cash in anticipation of extreme weather events: Quasi-experimental evidence from humanitarian interventions in the 2017 floods in Bangladesh, Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct., 41, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101275, 2019.
Harriman, L.: Cyclone Phailin in India: Early warning and timely actions saved lives, Environ. Dev., 9, 93–100, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2013.12.001, 2014.
Hartmann, H., Pagano, T., Sorooshian, S., and Bales, R.: Confidence builders: evaluating seasonal climate forecasts from user perspectives, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 83, 683–698, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2002)083<0683:CBESCF>2.3.CO;2, 2002.
IFRC: World Disasters Report 2009: Focus on early warning, early action, Geneva, Switzerland, 2009.
IFRC: DREF operation update Peru: Floods, Geneva, Switzerland, available at: https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/MDRPE005du1.pdf (last access: 17 December 2020), 2012.
IFRC: Emergency Plan of Action (EPoA) Peru: Flood, Geneva, Switzerland, available at: http://adore.ifrc.org/Download.aspx?FileId=160680 (last access: 15 May 2019), 2015.
IFRC: Peru: Floods in the lower Amazon jungle early action protocol summary, Geneva, Switzerland, available at: https://reliefweb.int/report/peru/peru-floods-lower-amazon-jungle-early-action-protocol-summary (last access: 26 February 2020), 2019.
IFRC: World disasters report 2020, Geneva, Switzerland, 2020.
Infanti, J. and Kirtman, B.: Southeastern U.S. rainfall prediction in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, J. Hydrometeorol., 15, 529–550, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-072.1, 2014.
Ionita, M., Dima, M., Lohmann, G., Scholz, P., and Rimbu, N.: Predicting the June 2013 European flooding based on precipitation, soil moisture, and sea level pressure, J. Hydrometeorol., 16, 598–614, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0156.1, 2015.
Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L., Iredell, M., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J., Zhu, Y., Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Higgins, W., Janowiak, J., Mo, K. C., Ropelewski, C., Wang, J., Leetmaa, A., Reynolds, R., Jenne, R., and Joseph, D.: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 437–472, 1996.
Keating, C.: Peru Streamflow Prediction, available at: https://gitlab.com/ckeating/peru_streamflow_prediction, last access: 29 March 2021.
Kirtman, B., Min, D., Infanti, J., Kinter III, J., Paolino, D., Zhang, Q., Dool, H., Saha, S., Mendez, M. P., Becker, E., Peng, P., Tripp, P., Merryfield, W., Denis, B., and Wood, E.: The North American Multimodel Ensemble, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 95, 585–602, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1, 2014.
Kvist, L. P. and Nebel, G.: A review of Peruvian flood plain forests: ecosystems, inhabitants and resource use, For. Ecol. Manage., 150, 3–26, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-1127(00)00679-4, 2001.
Lagos, P., Silva, Y., Nickl, E., and Mosquera, K.: El Niño? related precipitation variability in Perú, Adv. Geosci., 231–237, available at: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00297103 (last access: 21 December 2020), 2008.
Lala, J., Tilahun, S., and Block, P.: Predicting Rainy Season Onset in the Ethiopian Highlands for Agricultural Planning, J. Hydrometeorol., 21, 1675–1689, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-20-0058.1, 2020.
Lee, D., Ward, P., and Block, P.: Defining high-flow seasons using temporal streamflow patterns from a global model, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4689–4705, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4689-2015, 2015.
Lee, D., Ward, P. J., and Block, P. J.: Attribution of large-scale climate patterns to seasonal peak-flow and prospects for prediction globally, Water Resour. Res., 54, 1–23, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR021205, 2018.
Lopez, A., Coughlan de Perez, E., Bazo, J., Suarez, P., van den Hurk, B., and van Aalst, M.: Bridging forecast verification and humanitarian decisions: A valuation approach for setting up action-oriented early warnings, Weather Clim. Extrem., 27, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2018.03.006, 2017.
Marengo, J. A.: Interdecadal variability and trends of rainfall across the Amazon basin, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 78, 79–96, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-004-0045-8, 2004.
Moradkhani, H. and Meier, M.: Long-Lead Water Supply Forecast Using Large-Scale Climate Predictors and Independent Component Analysis, J. Hydrol. Eng., 15, 744–762, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000246, 2010.
Munich RE: Natural catastrophes 2011: Analyses, assessments, positions, Munich, Germany, 2012.
Munich RE: Natural catastrophes 2017: A stormy year, Munich, Germany, 2018.
NOAA: Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures, NOAA Natl. Centers Environ. Inf., available at: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/sst/, last access: 10 May 2020.
North, G., Bell, T., Cahalan, R., and Moeng, F.: Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthoginal functions, Mon. Weather Rev., 110, 699–706, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1982)110<0699:SEITEO>2.0.CO;2, 1982.
Public Health London: Heatwave plan for England, available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/888668/Heatwave_plan_for_England_2020.pdf (last access: 3 July 2020), 2018.
Ramirez, I. J. and Briones, F.: Understanding the El Niño Costero of 2017: The definition problem and challenges of climate forecast and disaster responses, Int. J. Disaster Risk Sci., 8, 489–492, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-017-0151-8, 2017.
Regonda, S. K., Rajagopalan, B., Clark, M., and Zagona, E.: A multimodel ensemble forecast framework: Application to spring seasonal flows in the Gunnison River Basin, Water Resour. Res., 42, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004653, 2006.
Rodriguez, R., Mabres, A., Luckman, B., Evans, M., Masiokas, M., and Ektvedt, T. M.: “El Niño” events recorded in dry-forest species of the lowlands of northwest Peru, Dendrochronologia, 22, 181–186, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dendro.2005.05.002, 2005.
Rodríguez-Morata, C., Ballesteros-canovas, J., Rohrer, M., Espinoza, J. C., Beniston, M., and Stoffel, M.: Linking atmospheric circulation patterns with hydro-geomorphic disasters in Peru, Int. J. Climatol., 38, 3388–3404, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5507, 2018.
Shabri, A. and Suhartono: Streamflow forecasting using least-squares support vector machines, Hydrol. Sci. J., 57, 1275–1293, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2012.714468, 2012.
Smith, T. M., Reynolds, R. W., Peterson, T. C., and Lawrimore, J.: Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land – ocean surface temperature analysis (1880–2006), J. Clim., 21, 2283–2296, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI2100.1, 2008.
Stephens, E., Day, J. J., Pappenberger, F., and Cloke, H.: Precipitation and floodiness, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 316–323, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066779, 2015.
Takahashi, K. and Martínez, A. G.: The very strong coastal El Niño in 1925 in the far-eastern Pacific, Clim. Dyn., 52, 7389–7415, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3702-1, 2017.
Tanner, T., Gray, B., Guigma, K., Iqbal, J., Levine, S., Macleod, D., Nahar, K., Rejve, K., and Venton, C. C.: Scaling up early action. Lessons, challenges and future potential in Bangladesh, Overseas Development Institute, London, UK, 2019.
Towner, J., Cloke, H. L., Lavado, W., Santini, W., Bazo, J., Coughlan de Perez, E., and Stephens, E. M.: Attribution of Amazon floods to modes of climate variability: A review, Meteorol. Appl., 27, e1949, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1949, 2020.
USAID: Peru – Floods Fact Sheet #1, Fiscal Year (FY) 1998, available at: https://reliefweb.int/report/peru/peru-floods-fact-sheet-1-fiscal-year-fy-1998 (last access: 6 May 2020), 1998.
Venkateswaran, K., MacClune, K., and Enriquez, M.: Learning from El Niño Costero 2017: Opportunities for building resilience in Peru, Institute for Social and Environmental Transition (ISET-International), Boulder, CO, USA, 2017.
Wang, F., Vavrus, S., and Block, P.: Rainy season precipitation forecasts in coastal Peru from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), Int. J. Climatol., in review, 2021.
Wei, W. and Watkins, D. W.: Probabilistic streamflow forecasts based on hydrologic persistence and large-scale climate signals in central Texas, J. Hydroinformatics, 13, 760–774, https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2010.133, 2011.
Wilkinson, E., Weingärtner, L., Choularton, R., Bailey, M., Todd, M., Kniveton, D., and Venton, C. C.: Forecasting hazards, averting disasters. Implementing forecast-based early action at scale, Overseas Development Institute, London, UK, 2018.
Wilks, D.: Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences, Academic Press, San Diego, California, USA, 2011.
Wolter, K. and Timlin, M. S.: El Niño/Southern Oscillation behaviour since 1871 as diagnosed in an extended multivariate ENSO index (MEI.ext), Int. J. Climatol., 31, 1074–1087, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2336, 2011.
Wu, S., Notaro, M., Vavrus, S., Mortensen, E., Montgomery, R., de Piérola, J. and Block, P.: Efficacy of tendency and linear inverse models to predict southern Peru's rainy season precipitation, Int. J. Climatol., 38, 2590–2604, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5442, 2018.
Zealand, C. M., Burn, D. H., and Simonovic, S. P.: Short term streamflow forecasting using artificial neural networks, J. Hydrol., 214, 32–48, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(98)00242-X, 1999.
Zhou, J. and Lau, K.-M.: Does a monsoon climate exist over South America?, J. Clim., 11, 1020–1040, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<1020:DAMCEO>2.0.CO;2, 1998.
Zimmerman, B. G., Vimont, D. J., and Block, P. J.: Utilizing the state of ENSO as a means for season-ahead predictor selection, Water Resour. Res., 52, 3761–3774, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017644, 2016.
Disaster planning has historically underallocated resources for flood preparedness, but evidence supports reduced vulnerability via early actions. We evaluate the ability of multiple season-ahead streamflow prediction models to appropriately trigger early actions for the flood-prone Marañón River and Piura River in Peru. Our findings suggest that locally tailored statistical models may offer improved performance compared to operational physically based global models in low-data environments.
Disaster planning has historically underallocated resources for flood preparedness, but evidence...